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Polls don't matter (at least not yet)

Frank Rich (New York Times the Op-Ed Columnist) gets into the subject of polling numbers and questions of popularity and in the process provides some salient historical facts.

No presidential candidate was breaking the 50 percent mark in mid-August polls in 2004 or 2000. Obama’s average lead of three to four points is marginally larger than both John Kerry’s and Al Gore’s leads then (each was winning by one point in Gallup surveys). Obama is also ahead of Ronald Reagan in mid-August 1980 (40 percent to Jimmy Carter’s 46). At Pollster.com, which aggregates polls and gauges the electoral count, Obama as of Friday stood at 284 electoral votes, McCain at 169. That means McCain could win all 85 electoral votes in current toss-up states and still lose the election.

Source: NYT: The Candidate We Still Don’t Know

With the Democratic Party Convention between the 25th. to the 28th. August, the Republican Party Convention between the 1st. to 4th. September, only then will the stage be set with just two months between the end of the Republican convention the 4th November (a.k.a. election day).

447 replies on “Polls don't matter (at least not yet)”

300 Ecky

But he framed himself in a bubble (his minders are dead-set dopes not to have primed him) so team Obi aim to prick it for him.
Aaaww, ain’t that just too bad”

…like I’ve been saying Ecky: it’s a bad case of asset deflation!

This proves it! LOL

And just to prove that Crikey is not defunct (mentally or otherwise) git ya mental masticators round this rip snorter little piece form Bernard Keane:

BCA climate report: falling for junk economics

Canberra correspondent Bernard Keane writes:

The naivete of our mainstream media occasionally surprises.

“Rudd thrown an emissions time bomb!” shrieked The Australian today about the Business Council’s emissions trading submission. “Carbon plan a company killer!”

The AFR was at it as well — “BCA warns Rudd on carbon fix” and the SMH — “Pollution price will kill jobs” and The Age: “Carbon bill to backfire.” (The Telegraph fortunately was focussed on real stories: “$1m for Sophie to STRIP”).

So, for all those journalists inclined to believe whatever comes out under the cover of a consultant’s report, here’s a sort of methodological note. Back when I was a public servant, a favoured technique for reinforcing the case for something was to hire a consultant who would provide an “independent” report. You never directed the consultant on what you wanted, you didn’t have to — good consultants knew.

And it wasn’t just bureaucrats that did that — ministers would as well. External reports, with lots of graphs, tables, boxes, a glossy cover and a consultant’s logo, look much better than a boring minute from a public servant.

The private sector understands this. Businesses and peak bodies are forever commissioning “independent” reports that, strangely, demonstrate exactly what those who commissioned them want demonstrated. And the media falls for it every time. The AFR, in particular, is shocking at running reports on new studies blatantly serving the interests of the bodies that commissioned them. Even the ABC has a particular weakness for medical studies that demonstrate the need for new pills and products.

We’ve seen a procession of businesses and sectors coming forward to whinge about the Government’s lamentably weak emissions trading scheme. The LNG producers. The miners. The power generators. And now the BCA has come forward — only it has its own “independent” research, produced by consultants Port Jackson Partners.

It’s no different to any other commissioned research. It is junk economics, produced for the purposes of arguing for more and bigger handouts for businesses.

The report purports to be the first actual account of the impact of the Green Paper ETS on real businesses. Accepting for a moment than some of our major companies in areas like aluminium and cement production gave a consultant untrammeled access to raw financial information, the problem is that reports like this are only as good as the assumptions on which they’re founded. In fact, it’s the assumptions that are the levers that control what outcome you want. And the report’s assumptions are all totally skewed.

* The report assumes trade-exposed businesses have no capacity to pass on any increased costs. In sectors where currency movements can savage bottom lines or hand out massive windfalls, we’re expected to believe that our exporters or import-competing industries can pass on not a cent of ETS-related costs, and that ETS-related costs would swamp all other cost factors in their pricing decisions.
* The report assumes trade-exposed businesses will not be able to adjust their operations to reduce carbon emissions. The BCA laments that 7 out of the 14 companies considered in the report, in response to an ETS, “must reduce operating costs in some way.” Quelle horreur! Oh, hang on, wasn’t that the point of having a trading scheme? That it puts pressure on businesses and consumers to reduce their emissions because they will now have a cost? Since when did Australian businesses become so inflexible and incapable of innovation that they can’t do that?
* The report assumes a seamless capacity for trade-exposed industries to relocate to other jurisdictions where they don’t have this greenhouse abatement nonsense. In the real world, where supposedly this report is set, businesses don’t up and flee based on one cost factor — particularly if there’s no guarantee that the jurisdiction they’re shifting to won’t impose a carbon abatement scheme of its own five minutes after they’ve built the new cement factory. The capacity for carbon leakage is not 100%, nor is it 0% — it’s somewhere in between depending on each industry, each company and each country.

The report does make some useful criticisms of the Green Paper — in particular, it offers some sensible alternatives to the Government’s proposal to base compensation on emission thresholds that would actually create incentives for some industries to increase emissions. But its prescription for compensation is in essence an open-ended hand-out system that would provide free, uncapped permits as carbon-intense industries expanded — thereby defeating the entire point of the scheme.

Moreover, it would shift the burden of actually doing anything about reducing emissions to the rest of us — to businesses with lower carbon intensity, to domestic businesses, to households. And that burden would accelerate if we aimed for an emissions target lower than our current emissions level.

In short, like all rent-seekers, the BCA wants to impose costs on the rest of us for the advantage of a few.

The report also condemns the Government’s mandatory renewable energy targets. Here’s an interesting story, drawn to our attention by the ACF. On Monday, the Washington Post reported on what happened when Colorado imposed a 10% renewable energy requirement on its utilities. Gloom and doom were predicted by power companies and yet, oddly enough, once the requirement was imposed, it was met well ahead of schedule. In fact it was so successful they bumped it up to 20%.

Turns out businesses – even electricity generators – can innovate quickly and successfully when they have to. The BCA should be directing its energies into that sort of innovation, not pleading for handouts.

…in today’s Crikey.

Who said journalism is dead in Australia, eh?

Today’s Polls

Lots of new polls today. ARG has a poll out confirming yesterday’s Rasmussen poll in New Hampshire: it is a statistical tie there. Both pollsters put Obama 1 point ahead. Another key swing state is Nevada. Research 2000 has it a statistical tie there, too, with Obama leading 44% to 43%.

http://www.electoral-vote.com

306 Enemy Combatant

I’ll agree with that bit about you’re needing ‘expert handlers’.

Obviously a ‘by’ missing there, so how about it reads:”by my expert handlers”?

Ah, cat’s out of the bag! You have expert handlers, eh, Ecky?

I’ve been thinking this must be the case, for quite a while now! (LOL)

OK, just a Freudian keystroke if you want to hide under a Viennese footnote, but look here Herr Docktor, you’ve been playing this without ‘handlers’?

Huh? We aren’t that Green, Herr Docktor, not that green either! LOL

Kirri at 308: Freudian slip or Jungian leap, who knows?
Actually, it’s a yellow door with greenish hues:)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OcTHBOjnUss
————————

Obi’s gonna do him slowly with Homesgate:mrgreen:
Veep Biden announced today? Fargeddaboudit!

In the most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal, a national sample was asked whether McCain or Obama “has a background and set of values that you can identify with.” Sixty percent said McCain had a background they identified with while 33 percent said he did not. The numbers were far more divided for Obama with 50 percent saying he had a background they could identify with and 42 percent saying he did not.

But, in a CBS/New York Times also released last night, 55 percent of voters said they could “relate” to Obama while just 41 percent said the same of McCain.

{A 19% drop overnight! Holy Jumpin’ Jehosephat!! Perhaps even my learned colleague, Mr. Gould, would agree(if one may take the liberty of so suggesting) that such polling somewhat exceeds MoE.

Johnny Bomb-Bomb made a boo-boo. The dumb fuck just self-swiftboated. And The Kid has acquired an unexpected coat of teflon re the “elitist” tag.}

One other interesting side note about the housing story: If Obama’s campaign had planned to roll out their vice presidential pick at any point today, that announcement is likely to be put on hold. Why? The campaign believes the story about McCain’s many houses is political gold and they won’t want to step on it with a veep announcement that would immediately change the day’s storyline.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/08/analysis_why_the_heated_home_d.html
———————-
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57972

ECky

Maybe the fact that his missus is a beer barroness may mean that he is perpetually pissed and we do not know it because we have never seen him sober. That could account for a lot of his stuff ups.

Kirri 304

Funny how their junk economics is always – A half of two plus two is always two. It is never three.

Meanwhile,
Premier/Diebold has shifted ground on the issue of faulty machines:

As recently as May, Premier said the problem was not of its making but stemmed from anti-virus software that Ohio had installed on its machines. It also briefly said the mistakes could have come from human mistakes. Further testing by Ohio elections officials and then high volume tests by Premier uncovered the programming error.

“We are indeed distressed that our previous analysis of this issue was in error,” Premier President Dave Byrd wrote Tuesday in a letter that was hand-delivered to Brunner. Premier and Brunner are in an ongoing court battle over the voting machines and whether Premier violated its contract with the state and warranties. Half of the Ohio’s 88 counties use the GEMS system. Brunner has been a vocal critic of electronic voting machines,

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/08/21/ohio_voting_machines_contained.html

An article on News Radio was saying the Obama Campaign is highly disciplined and will not be thrown off course or message at any cost. They have a plan and they will stick to it.

Apparently all the news services are waiting to see if Obama’s VP is named just prior to the evening news.

Update. News services have started, no announcement.

Obama to announce VP pick ‘in hours’

US Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama is preparing to name his running mate from a small field that includes at least one surprise finalist.

Democratic officials said little-known Texas representative Chet Edwards was one of the few Democrats whose background was checked by Obama’s campaign and he was a finalist for the job.

May require registration.

http://news.theage.com.au/world/obama-to-announce-vp-pick-in-hours-20080823-40id.html

A new survey released today finds unmarried women committed to change, engaged in this election, but their commitment to voting lags behind the rest of the country. If this trend continues, progressives will leave millions of votes on the table in November.

It is almost impossible to understand the “women’s vote” without understanding the role marital status plays in political decision-making. Marital status not only drives how women vote, but whether they vote.

Damn, we haven’t got a map that I can play with for this lot. 😆

http://www.gqrr.com/index.php?ID=2233

So does that make Britney the leader of this group?
What states would be influenced by a large turnout by this group? Will Texas finally turn blue from a large turnout of unmarried mothers? So many unanswered quests. What do you think David?

😈

“Pollsters have been productive in the week before the Democratic Convention. In the last 24 hours, they put out eight surveys from states that are rated toss-ups or lean, including polls from three of the big four (MI, FL, and PA). And after a week of worrisome results for Democrats, today’s survey should reassure them. Obama takes a solid lead in Minnesota for the first time in four polls, leads outside of the margin of error in Michigan and Pennsylvania as well as in Bush-state New Mexico, and he is within 2% in red Florida, North Carolina, Nevada.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/daniel-nichanian/polls-obama-pre-conventio_b_120560.html

Dave Stewart, formerly of the Eurythmics (if my memory serves me) has written an anthem for changes, entitled “American Prayer” and assembled some celebrities for it, including Forest Whitaker, Jason Alexander, Whoopi Goldberg, Cyndi Lauper, Barry Manilow, Joan Baez, Macy Gray and Joss Stone.

Barry Manilow??? What the???

Anyhoo, I’m a sucker for this stuff. MLK’s words are just so moving. You can read Dave Stewart’s words on why he wrote it and watch the video here…

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dave-stewart/an-anthem-for-change_b_120514.html

And there’s a dedicated website here…

http://myamericanprayer.com/

316 KatieLou Good one KatieLou. It certainly starting to look like we had an outlier, that put Obama in a bad light. Everyone jumped on it. Still, the reaction was probably good to keep the Democrats on their toes.

…I should have said American Prayer is not a new song. It was written with Bono in 2002. But Dave Stewart has put together a new video of the song in support of the Obama campaign.

320 KatieLou Great song, if anyone wants to rate it and pass it on click on the Title at the top, and that will take you to You Tube to do it. I should have known MoveOn was behind it.

Good morning Chris!
Latest on the VP announcement: apparently it’s not Bayh or Kaine, according to NBC News, so one would assume either Biden is Obama’s pick, or he’s going to surprise us with something out of left field.
Biden would be a rather predictable, boring choice, in my opinion!

Mornin’ Gang and welcome KatieLou,

I love the smell of branded maverick in the morning!!

Turns a man’s thoughts to Barbecued Bomb-Bomb.

Decision Dem-Veep has yet to be announced because Team Kid are milking McGaffegate Homes for all it is worth and ya know what?….It’s a gusher!
Obi’s gon’ surge on this baby all the way to E-Day. Bet yer blue booties on it.

Punters are drooling with Veep-Choice anticipation like a Broadway theatre crowd on opening night. The orchestra is tuned and Maestro has gestured the musos to ready their instruments. A nervous titter runs through the crowd (wait…wasn’t that Eliot Spitzer?!).
Seps love to be teased up a bit. Who doesn’t? All the fun of the fair; the hoop-la and razzle-dazzle are de rigeur. Programmes and peanuts and OF COURSE, pop corn, have been touted on the street front-of-house since the crack of dawn. After all, these people are Americans, the Showbizz progeny of P.T. Barnum and Cecil B. DeMille and every man Jack and woman Jacqueline of ‘em are gawking like ingénues, swarming like low cost locusts as they gaze starstruck at the contenders jostling for their close ups.

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/08/22/convention_round_table/

Expect Biden tba today. (before midnight EST Oz)

Aug 23 12:53 AM US/Eastern
By LIZ SIDOTI and NEDRA PICKLER
Associated Press Writers

WASHINGTON (AP) – Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware is Barack Obama’s pick as vice presidential running mate, The Associated Press has learned.

Biden, 65, is a veteran of more than three decades in the Senate, and one of his party’s leading experts on foreign policy, an area in which polls indicate Obama needs help in his race against Republican rival John McCain.

The official who spoke did so on condition of anonymity, saying they did not want to pre-empt a text-message announcement the Obama campaign promised for Saturday morning.

A similar storyline is coming out from the NYTs.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/23/us/politics/23veep.html

Boring, uninspiring, a non-event, and it doesn’t help Obama carry any Republican states(Delaware is solidly blue).
I guess the only good thing is that Biden has the necessary foreign policy/national security credentials.
I’ve never heard the guy give a substantive speech, is he any good on the stump?

Progressive at 334

I’ve never heard the guy give a substantive speech, is he any good on the stump?

He is the guy that came up with the phrase …

A noun and a verb and 9/11

Catrina, probably I’m being way too negative, I was hoping Obama might have picked Hillary. Oh well, let’s hope she gets a prominent role at the convention.
Let’s hope Biden doesn’t have any skeletons in his closet!

But Catrina, where’s the electoral payoff for Obama? Does Biden help him win Ohio and the midwest?
The Northeast is already solidly blue, New Hampshire perhaps is only the state in that region where there’ll be a contest.
I’m frankly disappointed, I remain to be convinced Obama made the right decision.
Hillary or Gore or Kaine would have been my preferred picks.

Progressive at 347

It’s not about territory – it’s about kicking back. Out of all of the candidates Biden is the one who can really stomp on McCain.

Or Tim Pawlenty of Minnesotta, although I doubt McCain has a prayer of winning that state.

Would have thought the evidence suggests that most VP candidates make little difference to voting. Their main task seems to be to avoid too much limelight, avoid scandal etc.
History would also suggest that a President without solid control in Congress has problems if they want to change things. If Biden can ensure that the Democrats who are in the grip of military industrial lobbyists or just conservative or useless can be pulled into line to support new Obama directions that would be useful. On the other hand giving power to more conservative Democrats can also be a problem.
There is clearly an ongoing struggle to get the Democrats to move from being just another arm of the establishment to being a progressive force for the majority of Americans and the rest of us.
Since Obama can’t overturn the current bunch of do-nothing Democrats overnight he and supporters need a strategy to do this over a few years. That is clearly part of the 50 State rhetoric – mobilising new forces into changing the Democratic Party.
The alternative of creating a left/progressive force outside the Democratic Party also needs to be pursued because for many people the machinations of the DP is just too much. Unions, community rganisations etc are key components of this.

What the Democrats needed was a healing process. A lot of people are going to br p1ssed off. Especially Hillary supporters. As a Hillary supporter, I didn’t mind Obama winning. But I sure don’t like him picking someone else as VP. It is very short sighted.

360 Chris B. I suppose some Hilary supporters will be upset but I would have thought it is more important to give Hilary some important jobs to do getting better policy through Congress in areas like health or being in a “Cabinet” position doing same rather than being in a pretty inconsequential position such as VP.

‘Dream Ticket’ No More: No Obama-Clinton.

Two years ago, she was considered the presidential frontrunner. But today, Sen. Hillary Clinton isn’t even on the 2008 Democratic ticket.

While Democrats insist they will rally behind Barack Obama and his vice presidential pick, some Clinton supporters remain bitter about what could have been.

Clinton herself offered a gracious tone Saturday morning, releasing a statement praising Obama’s vice presidential pick longtime Sen. Joe Biden, D-Dela., a longtime Washington lawmaker who brings foreign policy credentials to the ticket.

http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=5496102&page=1

Exactly.

Who is Joe Biden?

Joseph Biden’s experience of Washington politics goes back more than 30 years and he is currently chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He is expected to bring experience in domestic and foreign politics to Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. He also has a pugnacious debating style, although the US’s soundbite-oriented media find him verbose.

Instead of going for the kill, with Hillary they go for a nobody.
I am really starting to question whether the Democrats are keen to go for the throat. This decision probably cost them that extra bit.

http://www.rfi.fr/actuen/articles/104/article_1399.asp

What other decisions coming up that look pretty clear can they stuff up. It really makes me wonder. It should be quite obvious the direction the Democrats should be going, but after such a stuff up it really makes me wonder.

Chris B

Don’t know if you had a look at the first link in Cats’ 356.
I think it is very informative as to why Joe got the nod.

it appears that he has no, or little, swift boat cargo (as far as we know) as compared with the others and will cause the least sidetracking dramas for BO.

Maybe the MSM will come out with something like he pinched some oranges from his neighbours tree way back in the early fifties.

He certainly plugs the hole on FA where the GOP have been sniping at him.

From my point of view i do not really care who he picked as long as he wins in November rids the country of the trashers that are in charge now.
The research would have been pretty comprehensive for them to pick Joe ahead of the others

I would like him to name his Cabinet soon as someone suggested earlier with Hillary as Sec of Health.
I reckon it would do Bomb Bomd some serious damage if he named his Cabinet.

Chris B – Obama was never going to have Hillary as VP. As many of us on here argued months ago, Hillary would have resulted in a net loss because she is incongruent with Obama’s change and renewal message.

I think Biden is a good choice. It is a safe option. Biden doesn’t have much, if any, baggage (unlike Hillary) is not known too widely (unlike Hillary), which will allow Obama to remain firmly in the spotlight.

If Hillary were the VP candidate, then the election would all be about Hillary again. She has a way of sucking the oxygen out of the world around her, and Obama would be left fighting for the level of media attention required to win the presidency.

#372

[Hi again, the Valium worked well last night. Feel a lot better now.]

Let’s hope you won’t need the Valium again in the next couple of months. Hillary will be given a cabinet position, and she deserves one. I hope Obama announces what that will be before the election.

Noocat @ 371

I agree. Hilary as VP would have had more negatives than positives for Obama. The choice of Biden makes sense to me.

Hi Gang, glad you’re feeling better this morning, CB. Don’t worry about Biden, if he mainly sticks to stumping for the downscale white and tyke vote in the rust belt, he’ll do little damage to The Team. Remember that Baz is Big Boss Man and calls the shots. Biden is a cleanskin graftwise, looks good on telly, knows how to deliver a killer grab, has a compelling family history and because he’s Beltway up the wazoo, knows how to deal with the bastards who, short of a revolution, can’t be left out of things at this stage.

Some quicksilver analysis from Nifty Nate:

Where Biden might do some good is among independents, among whom he has the highest favorables and highest net rating…… …. Biden certainly performs better amongst this critical group than Hillary Clinton. One can argue that Biden is very well positioned within the Democratic party, probably just slightly to the right of the average Democratic senator. Liberal Democrats………. still essentially trust him……. Biden cannot so easily be characterized as a liberal to turn off independent voters; in fact, independents and moderates like him pretty well………

What’s noteworthy is not so much that Biden will turn a lot of McCain voters on — Tim Kaine and Hillary Clinton would have done a better job of that — but that he’ll turn very few Obama voters off. As a result, this method projects a net swing of 2 points toward Obama, which is better than he’d do with any of the other candidates.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/can-biden-out-hillary-hillary.html

364

Chris B

although the US’s soundbite-oriented media find him verbose.

I did something i have not done since last year sometime and that was switch on “hopalong” Cassidy Insiders. Swore i would not do it until the ABC got rid of some of the board.

It was almost like Rupert was conducting the orchestra as the three regular soldiers and Hopalong sailed in to the appointment of Joe as VP.
You guessed it the main topic of their combined knowlege was the fact that ‘Gee he talks a lot doesn’t he, and that could well be his downfall.
Aw shucks it is almost like Jarnut Alldullsen wrote the script for that session following on from reports in US media.

Really shows how shallow they are for criticism when they say he is verbose.

Suppose 500 coherent words from Joe are better than 20 incoherent ones from McHause.

Wandering over to the NYT site and I’m confronted with an entire page dedicated to news and analysis on the Obama/Biden ticket. Not a single article on McCain – if this is what the media mean when they talk about sucking oxygen, then this is one hell of an example.

A Philosophy of Diplomacy First, Force Last
A background on Joe Biden’s foreign policy leaning and the sort of person he is relative to geopolitical opinion.

A Senate Stalwart Who Bounced Back
Digging into his senate background, his priorities and focus.

In ‘Very Personal Decision,’ Aides Say Obama Chose a Partner in Leadership
This article is more about Obama’s rationale and the complementarity of the Obama/Biden ticket.

Obama Adds Foreign Expertise to Ticket
While this one goes more into the Biden foreign policy background.

Poll: Biden well-liked, but unknown to many.

Among Democratic voters nationwide, 29% call the choice of Biden excellent and another 36% say it is “pretty good.” Just 16% say it is “only fair” and 6% call it poor.

Republicans were less impressed. Only one in four, 25%, call Obama’s pick of Biden excellent or good. Nearly twice as many, 47%, say it is only fair or poor.

And 45% of independents call the pick excellent or good, 35% fair or poor.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-08-23-biden-poll_N.htm

Gee, why am I not surprised? The Democrats have got themselves to blame.

Die-hard Clinton supporters to air grievances outside convention.

Democratic Party leaders have spent weeks preparing a national convention this week that will burst with symbols of unshakable unity behind Senator Barack Obama.

But outside the convention arena in Denver, some of Hillary Clinton’s supporters plan to air their grievances against Obama, the party’s leadership, and the national media, whose coverage of the primary battle they considered sexist. Hundreds of disaffected Democrats from around the country plan to converge in the Mile High City to hold news conferences, protests, and vigils, threatening the party’s ability to present a united front against Republican John McCain.

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/08/24/die_hard_clinton_supporters_to_air_grievances_outside_convention/

Obama supporters rally in Sydney.

Barack Obama supporters thought it only right to stage a rally for the US Democratic presidential candidate on Sydney’s harbour foreshore alongside the US warship USS John S McCain.

A clarinet playing southern American Dixie tunes and chants of “I don’t know but I’ve been told, Barack Obama’s good as gold” accompanied a 40 people-strong “march of hope” as it circled Farm Cove through the Royal Botanical Gardens.

http://news.smh.com.au/national/obama-supporters-rally-in-sydney-20080824-4174.html

I will say there is a MASSIVE number of articles in the papers, I research. Blanket coverage. I have not seen anything like this anywhere. Even when Obama was in Europe.

Surveys show a tight presidential race in Indiana.

Two new polls show that Republican presidential candidate John McCain could win Indiana.

Or not.

A poll taken for Cincinnati and Louisville TV stations by Survey USA — an automated telephone survey conducted Aug. 16-18 of 645 likely voters in Indiana — showed McCain leading Democrat Barack Obama in Indiana, 50 percent to 44 percent.

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080824/NEWS05/808240354

Couple of neato-keeno observations from Nate Man:

What’s interesting is that the gender gap is different between the several formulations of the question that Rasmussen employed. There is a big difference in the question of whether Biden was “the right pick” — apparently seeming to indicate that, for many women, any pick other than Hillary was not going to be the right pick. But there isn’t very much difference in favorability scores for Biden, nor upon the prospective impact upon one’s vote. So the message that women seem to be sending is that: (1) yeah, we’re kind of ticked; but, (2) it’s nothing personal against Biden, and (3) we’ll probably get over it.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/is-there-clinton-backlash-how-about.html

Well lookee heah, Bruthers and System, we jes gon’ have ta wait and SEE what da girl DO when she cakewalk out all sassy and sanctified on dat CONvention floah Toosday.

Will she say,
“Ah want all you winnins git on board wit’ Obi!! He Da Man, Girlfriends, He da Man!”
or will she git all cute and damn da Dauphin wit’ faint praise?”

Senator Clinton’s performance will have major consequences. However fleetingly, on this last week in August she holds real power. It will be one of her biggest moments. Will it be about the world of Clintons past or will she reach out and sieze the future more for her Party than for herself?
Quite a few voters are expected to be viewing Her Moment in the Colorado bright lights.

Was thqt the sound of hammering I heard in the wee small hours? A radio broadcast of Biden putting lots of big nails into an albatross called “george” or “surge”, and making sure the corpse of the bedraggled bird was never going to detach itself from John McCain’s neck.

Gosh, that rings a bell, it surely does!

390 KR – lets hope so. The capacity of the big corporations, including parts of media to control the agenda for debate is a worry but also reflects the lack of political understanding of many people. I would much prefer McCain to be getting the equal attention of media – the spotlight needs to be on McCain a lot more.

Ecky, this is the last call for Princess Hillary, and if she doesn’t pull a dastardly trick at the conference, it’s all over for her. Sure, the Republicans would be the only winners, but that’s never stopped her in the past. It must be hard having your earthly form inhabited by an Alien ego, just busting to burst out and terrify the adoring crowd.

Can Dr Obama ward off the Alien and divert catastrophe?

How many skeletons from the Senate and elsewhere can Joe Biden rustle up from the last thirty years to ride shotgun for Doc Obi? Can they head off the Alien horde at Dead Man’s Gulch before anyone knows it nearly all went catastrophically wrong?

Stay tuned folks for the exciting finale of the Democratic Primary 2008!

391 Wakefield

Yeah, it’s creepy the way old Macca has evaporated from the public discourse, like the election has already been and gone, and we’ve already forgotten the loser’s name.

But there’s also the more positive spin here too, in as much as Biden has a lot to say, and there’s a lot to say about him as Obama’s VP.

I think this should have Macca worried when his opponent’s VP can say, directly to Macc: hey, I respect you dude, but let’s face facts, you aren’t here to represent ‘change’, just four more years of Bush. You can’t tell us you don’t know much about economics and then try to tell us that things are better under Bush!

If this was a cartoon, then Macca would be taking the big “KAPOOW” hits with each of these.

If I was McCain, I’d be hiding out until these wunderkinds stopped for a milkshake, and try and make a VERY quiet get away! LOL

Salon.com:

The Obama vice-presidential talking points stress that Biden is not part of that derided species called “Washington insiders” because he takes the train home to Wilmington, Del., every night the Senate is in session. Rarely has a politician’s route home been such a political selling point, but in Biden’s case it speaks to a larger biographical truth.

Biden established this unorthodox routine to be with his two young sons after his wife and infant daughter were killed in a car crash just a month after his 1972 upset victory to the Senate. Biden’s oldest son, Beau, now the attorney general of Delaware, is scheduled to be deployed to Iraq with his National Guard unit in October. “When you think about Joe Biden, you think about family,” said longtime Delaware state Sen. Harris McDowell. “Everything starts with family with Joe.”

…which makes a contrast with McCain’s behaviour on that front, doesn’t it?

KR:
“If I was McCain, I’d be hiding out until these wunderkinds stopped for a milkshake, and try and make a VERY quiet get away! LOL”

Kirri, Barry and Joe are into soy.
Bubba’s the Bad Boy when it comes to milkshakes!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UxncrY2tfm8

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/58019

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57991

http://cartoonbox.slate.com/static/160.html

http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/08/22/fox-news-obama-documentary-in-one-minute/

Here’s a couple I found on desktop from last week.

Real men don’t do nuance.
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57691
Bent GOPper Senator, Teddy “Fingers” Stevens, is trying to have his corruption charges heard in his home state of Alaska. Even with all the justice money can buy, Fingers has two chances of this occurring; Buckley’s and Bubkes. The transfer hearing has been set for late August.
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57709

As it transpired, the judge told “Fingers” he could shove his transfer; as Chris B reported, the hearing will be in D.C.

Delegate Still Pushes for Clinton to be No. 2

“My dream ticket would be Obama and Clinton — preferably Clinton first — but seeing as that’s not likely to happen now then I’d like her to be second. Together, they cover a vast group of voters from all demographics,” Crawford said.

“I supported Clinton because of her economic and social security policies,” he added, noting that Clinton would, “keep Obama in check on a lot of issues.”

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/08/24/18-year-old-delegate-still-pushes-for-clinton-to-be-no-2/

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