We are about to witness the biggest landslide in US political history. Everything is against the Republicans. History tells us that no incumbent party overlooking such an economic disaster, survives. Everything is pointing to wipeout. Never mind the fact that the Democrats have 8 out of the top 10 major issues going for them. None of that counts when it comes to the economy. Bill Clinton won well when the economy was on the down turn. This is different, the economy is an unmitigated disaster, who are they going to blame?
The Republicans.
It doesn’t matter that they have the most corrupt US government ever, the war in Iraq doesn’t matter. The “200 year old man” running for president doesn’t matter. Neither does the hillbilly running for VP. Forget about Hurricane Katrina, the health care in a mess, returned soldiers being in squalid conditions in hospitals. None of that matters. It’s the economy stupid! If you didn’t hear that, it’s THE ECONOMY STUPID!
To sum it all up, I give you Obama’s latest ad, which I couldn’t have said better.
1,290 replies on “It's the economy stupid!”
If you missed it over the page, Obama leads Virginia by 5%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election
Rassmussen is one of the better polling companies, but still lags behind Selzer. So in real terms Obama maybe about 6% ahead.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings
Thanks KatieLou. I like puzzles. I like to think and I like to tap-tap-tap. And then I like to stop for sec and read.
There is a lot to take in lately. Events are moving so quickly, they appear to have momentum of their own. The velocity and force of real events appear in bright contrast to McCain’s flimsiness. He looks desperately irrelevant even to the present situation, let alone to the future. He is floundering in the wake of history…the past, receding.
KR, I’m sure you will have seen Marc Faber’s prediction: the ultimate cost is tipped at $5 trill. Congress wants to start with $250 bill. You gotta start somewhere I spose. Basically, it would be cheaper for taxpayers if Treasury just nationalised half a dozen banks and let the rest go to pieces. They have the makings already: Fannie & Freddie, AIG, Bear Stearns….Wachovia and Bank of America could be added. In 15 years time they could be gradually privatised.
The debate is over. I gave Obama 9 out of 10 and McCain 4 out of 10. I not in the least bit biased. đ McCain looked very uncomfortable , Obama looked at ease. Obama looked like he was made for the job. Having said that, it doesn’t matter a hoot what I think. The only people that count are the Yanks.
I’m already busting for the VP debate, and I can’t wait till the polls come out.
I was hoping McCain would have a meltdown moment, but that was always just wishful thinking! Will be interesting to see who is assigned the winner according to the commentariat and public opinion. Trying to be as objective as possible, I think Obama appeared more presidential than McCain, but never really dealt a knockout blow. McCain appeared flustered and quite rude at times, talking over the top of Obama, which I don’t think will play too well in people’s living rooms.
But in the end, McCain needed to deal the knockout blow because foreign policy is McCain’s supposed strength, but he failed to do that, so the signs for him are not looking good for the next debates.
1006 Noocat Some of the media are going to give neutral answers to the result, so they are not showing bias.
Summed it up well, Noocat. Both sides would be fairly happy that at least their man did not fall over. Maybe a points win to Barack.
My wife made an interesting observation, especially for someone not so political. She said that Obama is not nearly as fast on his feet as Rudd, and that maybe The Rodent would have given the Republican leaders a lesson. Hard to judge, with different audiences. A generation or so back I’d have said LBJ would have run rings around our local tory pollies, who he appeared with at times.
968 GhostWhoVotes Further to our discussion on Mississippi.
I completely forgot the 1st congressional district election, this may shed some more light on it.
http://www.brendan-nyhan.com/blog/2008/05/how-bad-was-ms.html
DW – I agree. Obama is not the quickest on his feet, but neither is McCain. I also think Obama held back a little. He could have hit a bit harder on Iraq and the failings of the Bush administration in terms of foreign policy and tied McCain to it more strongly, but I get the impression Obama never went in to deal a knockout, but to simply hold his own, not lose, and avoid saying anything too controversial. That is probably all he needed to do because the next debates are on territory that Obama is better suited and McCain less so.
And Chris B, I also can’t wait for the VP debate. Palin will flounder, I have no doubt.
CBS News / Knowledge Network Undecideds Give Debate To Obama
“40% of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. 22% thought John McCain won. 38% saw it as a draw. 68% of these voters think Obama would make the right decision about the economy. 41% think McCain would. 49% of these voters think Obama would make the right decisions about Iraq. 55% think McCain would.”
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/09/cbs_news_knowledge_network_und.php
I am now about to put my credibility right on the line and say that any senate seat under 15% is in the Democrats line of fire, that includes Kentucky which was 17% in favour of the Republic now has swung back to be within 8% of the Democrats. I didn’t think the other day the Democrats had a chance there.
The senate seats I now think are under threat.
Maine. 14%
South Carolina. 11%
Georgia. 12%
Mississippi 5%
Texas 11%
They will win all the others that are close.
What do I base this on?
The debate went exactly as I thought it would. No matter what anyone spins it as.
Anne Seltzer. Being as accurate as she is.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings.
It’s the economy stupid.
The American people being a lot smarter than we have been giving them credit for.
Whoops, line 3. I meant to say Republican party.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/even-top-corporates-having-trouble.html
when the most credit-worthy can’t raise a dollar, what hope is there for the rest of us…
1010 Noocat Maybe he was just being cautious, so as not to appear arrogant.
1014 blindoptimist Maybe I should be renamed blindoptimst after #1012. đ
đ
As far as Obama and Rudd goes.
Obama was talking to Americans
Rudd was talking to Australians
CB, I have been for Obama from the first time I saw him. He can win and win handsomely. The republicans have trashed the place: it can’t come soon enough for me. But the dems have a long way to go. I hope Obama can give them some stomach.
I’m in jail. Help!
1018 blindoptimist Yes, I put my whole credibility on the line with that one. My whole career will go up in smoke, I mean we never know who is watching. Kevin Rudd might be hanging on my every word. Then there is the ABC, who keep ringing me. They keep saying they’ve got an Insider(sorry), keeping an eye on things.
Jailbird flies at 1018
Thanks for that lead on Ann Selzer, the information has been invaluable.
Columbus Dispatch is one of the most inaccurate polls. They should be taken with a grain of salt. Whereas, Hotline (FD) which David dismisses, is quite reasonable.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings
Chris, Ann is one of Pollsterdom’s most effervescent contributors.
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/59845
1009
While the result in MS-01 was great for the Democrats, the 2004 and 2006 results clearly show that there is a huge difference in the way people in Mississippi vote for Congressional and Presidential candidates. In particular, MS-04 has been held by Gene Taylor (D) since 2002, despite being R+16, which should mean that in ’04 they voted about 67% for Bush.
U.S. Federal Election 2004: Mississippi House Results
U.S. Federal Election 2006: Mississippi House Results
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=xVyHi5PTqdc
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/60107
I watched CNN’s coverage and these were the results of their telephone polls of over 500 adults.
Who did the best job in the debate?
O – 51%
M – 38%
Who could better handle the issue of Iraq?
O – 52%
M – 47%
Who could better handle the economy?
O – 58%
M – 37%
Who won amongst male voters?
O – 43%
M – 46%
Who won amongst female voters?
O – 59%
M – 31%
Who won amongst people 50 yrs old and above
O – 48%
M – 40%
The commentators noted that most of the undecided voters are women, and that the older voters are the most worried about the economy.
CNN had a worm running based on 32 people in Ohio. They were one third each independent, dem, and republican. CNN noted thatPbama got high marks from all the groups while McCain only scored highly amongst republicans. I kept my eye on the independent line. McCain was frequently in negative territory, Obama was almost never in negative territory.
I would have loved a knockout blow, but I don’t think there was one. But overall, a bad night for McCain. David Gergen, a CNN commentator who was an adviser to Ford, Nixon, Reagan and Clinton said this was a pivotal night for McCain and it was a bad result. He needed to score against Obama, and Obama just ended up matching him – looking like his peer.
NYTimes goes through the facts of the debating points:
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/26/check-point-the-first-debate/?hp
McCain performed better than I expected. I think Obama held back too much. He let McCain detach himself from Bush too much. At times it seemed by the way McCain was talking that there was a democrat president for the past 8 years. I liked the way Rudd politely ridiculed Howard in our debate and hoped Obama would do the same.
I tend to think that McCain won – just. Obama was under pressure on the surge and on Iran, and conceded the Russian ground completely to McCain. But he beat McCain in the economic areas.
Obama was definitely the nicest guy on the stage – he looked at the camera more and at McCain more.
I do not think that the worm tells us much at all, to be honest. I think that we will have to wait for a few days to see if there has been any impact. I would doubt it.
McCain aides complain that Palin is “clueless” and conservative columnist says she was a Palin supporter but that she should now quit
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/26/report-mccain-aides-compl_n_129618.html
1028 KatieLou Absolute massacre! I don’t mean what Hawthorn’s doing to Geelong. Even McCain’s strength older voters, he was beaten by 8%
Sniff, sniff, can you smell it? The smell of slaughter in the air. Don’t you just love it?
David G released @1031.
1031 Andrew Well, they have till Friday’ to make up their mind. Can they be buried any deeper?
Yes – I think going toe to toe, McCain’s claim that Obama wasn’t experienced was thrown out the window. McCain had no advantage over Obama. Obama sounded like he knew what he was doing. McCain sounded condescending. And that smirk on his face was a bad look. Obama is sometimes criticised for being too wordy, but that was an advantage here. When he spelled out his points (and he did that quite a few times), he sounded logical, reasoned and knowledgeable. I think Obama came across as a safe choice.
McCain would not look at Obama, even when he was being spoken too. Obama continually looked at McCain.
DG @ 1031
I agree you can’t take much from a worm poll of 32 people, but what about the telephone poll? Seems all the TV networks that took polls have Obama ahead (though I haven’t checked on Fox).
1031 David Gould I not in the least bit surprised by your choice David. I just refer you to 128 KatieLou.
Oh, I forgot you’re a pessimist.
CBS Poll: Obama Boosted Most By Debate.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/27/opinion/polls/main4482119.shtml
Who won the presidential debate?
MSNBC
John McCain
16.7%
11,590 votes
Barack Obama
78.9%
54,834 votes
http://jeffblack.newsvine.com/_question/2008/09/26/1919787-who-won-the-presidential-debate
Who came out on top? ABC News.
No pessimists in this lot that I posted.
http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=5898364
1043
It’s only a online poll though. Also, I would say that this debate was a draw, although since Obama currently leads and the remaining debates will be on topics more favourable to him strategically it was a win for Obama.
David this lot are going to be blown away at this poll. Your pessimism won’t save them.
1045 GhostWhoVotes I agree, an online poll means nothing. The other two weren’t. They were phone polls of 500 each and got similar results.
I wonder if Palin will resign for family reasons. Her daughter is pregnant you know. đ
[I tend to think that McCain won – just.]
DG, I think you are wrong. The closest McCain might have got to was a stalemate. In no way did he win this debate, and already that is bearing out public opinion polls, which is the ultimate indicator of who did best.
Here’s a poll on MSN live.
491,451
Obama 52%
McCain 33%
I think I might trust that poll a bit more than any pessimist.
So half a million people have voted in that poll. It must be rigged.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26906945?GT1=43001
1049 Noocat. But Noocat, David is a pessimist.
1051. Well, David called it as he saw it. Some will agree with him, but I don’t. I think what we’re going to see is the media splitting down the middle, some giving it to McCain and some to Obama, and public opinion going slightly towards Obama.
Just stirring Noocat. đ
Catch you later.
1053 Chris B
[Just stirring Noocat.]
I know đ
Obama pitched to the folks in the middle at home watching on telly or plasma. He adressed all of his opening remarks to them. They listened to him as he effectively communicated his message. Lehrer pleaded early that both candidates frequently address each other. Obi congenially replied, McCain could barely bring himself to snach a glance or two at Obama during the whole “debate”. Folks at home in the middle notice stuff like that. I think it’s one of the reasons Obi scored so well in the post-debate polls.
————————-
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/60117 debate plin
—————————–
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/60171 econpmy
EC – I agree. Obama was targeting the Independents, who want to see signs of bipartisanship (hence Obama pointing out where he agreed with McCain). Obama won hands-down on this. He showed a a much greater level of courtesy and respect towards McCain than McCain showed towards Obama.
Also, nonverbal behaviour counts for a LOT. If you watched carefully you would have noticed McCain’s constantly darting eyes. That gives an impression of untrustworthiness and a lack of self-assuredness. At times his gaze went sharply to his left, which audiences subconsciously pick up as a sign of lying. He seemed generally less comfortable, less stable on his feet, and never looked into the camera but instead directed everything he said to Lehrer. So, turn the volume off and you will see a subtle display of fear and deceit.
Changed suburbs, back again.
Even when they shook hands at the end he wouldn’t look at Obama.
I listened to most of it on radio and could feel an assured tone in Obama’s answers, but McCain felt edgy, and the constant references to experiences in decades most of the audience couldn’t remember (or didn’t live through) seemed rehearsed.
One thing bothers me about the ‘surge’ stuff, and that is that most serious analysts reckon the surge did not start the drop in violence, but it began with the Sunni getting p!ssed off with al Qaeda kidnapping and murdering them. Sure, the surge started a bit after, and may have helped, but it DID NOT on its own cause the major shift in Sunni attitudes.
Why Obama will not touch this Republican shibboleth and raise the facts is odd to me, but it shows how strongly the media enforces public opinion with incessant and unquestioned repetition. Likewise the role of Iran. For gawds sake, why would Iran be trying to kill Shiites and destabilise the country? McCain gets away with murdering the truth and Obama won’t touch it? Once again, public opinion is cast by the Republican manipulation of the talking points, and the nuances and depth are obliterated with what is little more than propaganda.
Overall the debate was pretty anodyne, but Obama seemed much more reasoned and calm.
You be the judge.
Did McStupid make the comment “horse shit” while BO was talking.
http://www.opednews.com/articles/McCain-says-Horseshit-on-by-Steven-Leser-080927-121.html
The other thing that annoyed me in the debate was how McCain was allowed to get rapturous about saving the nation with a few billions cut from earmarks while the Republicans have overseen financial Armageddon! Trillions in war and mortgage related losses on the one hand, and a few paltry billion he claims to save on reducing earmarks.
Obama should have slapped him on that, but didn’t.
Likewise McCain said very little about the real causes of Wall Street’s demise, but his claim that the ‘regulators failed’ was an open invitation to say who withdrew the teeth from the regulators! (HINT: John McCain and his cronies).
But maybe Obama figures this stuff is generally known and Macca is making a goose of himself? But I would have preferred to see Obama rip his head off.
Catrina, that picture of McCain at the top he looks far too healthy. Compared to what he looked like on the debate.
Kirri@1061 released from the sin-binnery.
Everyone must be out Saturday night. There’s not much action here.
Obama one the debate easily, because he continually tied McCain in with Bush’s past problems and failures and tied the current economic problems to the Republicans. That is exactly what he had to do.
I have long been a firm believer that if McStupid did not look like getting in then the imbecile would crank up a bit of a skirmish and invoke the Patriot Act and cancel the elections.
This guy has completely dissed my belief because apparently he does not have to do that. He just has to invoke the National Security Presidential Directive 51 (NSPD-51), because of the current economic emergency and that gives him immediate Dictatorial powers.
A real good read if you like reading conspiracy theories especially since the way things have progressed over the last 18 months.
The NSPD51 fits perfectly in to the scenario.
Sounds like “save all your Confederate money as the Souths gonna rise again”
http://www.opednews.com/articles/Now-We-Know-More-About-Bus-by-William-Cormier-080925-680.html
http://justanothercoverup.com/?p=545
1066 Magna Carta or what.
What a number to get with that post.
Damn, concern trolls are bad this year.
Interesting post Gaffhook, I would put nothing past them.
Maybe they might invoke that directive to save Palin. đ
Elmer McStupid is at it again. Gaffe No ?????????.
http://www.opednews.com/articles/The-Republican-Guard-by-Jayne-Lyn-Stahl-080926-419.html
1069
I feel the same way Chris.
I don’t think anything is going to save The Fence.
There are a lot of good writers of different articles at that site.
Yep,Gaffy,
I wouldn’t put anything past them.
Has a touch of the Cheney about it.
So much covert.
Some of them have some good satire interspersed as well.
http://www.opednews.com/articles/Think-Economics-is-Bad—by-Peter-Michaelson-080926-462.html
1076
Magna Carta was 1215; the Battle of Hastings (William the Conquerer and all that) was 1066; and just for the sake of completeness and to expand your anglo-centric democratic literacy, the much more important Declaration of Arbroath (Scotland) was 1320.
oops….1067 above
Noocat News!
Yes Chris they are definitely reading our site. Now they have picked up on McStupids McMaverick meat pie.
http://www.opednews.com/articles/McCain-s-Maverick-Eye-and-by-Peter-J-Burns-080925-924.html
Ferny
Was that the battle of Runnymede.
Give me a break man i am calling on school memories from the 50’s without checking the facts.
One things for sure FG if the Imbecile invokes that Act it will be the Alimo of 2008, OK Coral, the magnificent 7 and Saving Private Ryan, all rolled in to one big shit fight.
The movie will star Britney, Fred Astaire, Bristol Paling and Cassius and will be called Sing,Dance, Fcuk or bounce out.
KR at 1061 yes I agree Obama should have hammered the cost of the war, but didnt.
And Dg, thanks for taking the pessimist mantle back, but giving the debate to McCain is a bridge too far!!
Love the horseshit soundbites Gaffhook!!
1061
Kirri
I agree with you. I reckon he should have ripped him a new one as well.
May be that he wants to carry him a bit further before they replace him.
When McStupid started about ear marks and insiders BO should have give him both barrels just like in this article.
http://www.opednews.com/articles/2/Tit-for-tat-has-to-end-wit-by-winston-080925-917.html
Just because they can have a guy walk in space, doesn’t give them the right to p!ss on America from a great height…or does it?
(But when was the last time you heard a communist country lecture the apogee of capitalism on prudent lending standards and avoiding asset bubbles?):
Sep 27th, 2008 | TIANJIN, China — U.S. lending standards before the global credit crisis were “ridiculous,” and the world can learn from China’s more cautious system as it considers financial reforms, the top Chinese bank regulator said Saturday.
Beijing curbed mortgage lending in 2003 and 2006 to keep debt manageable amid a real estate boom, while American regulators responded to a similar situation by letting credit grow, said Liu Mingkang, chairman of the Chinese Banking Regulatory Commission.
“When U.S. regulators were reducing the down payment to zero, or they created so-called ‘reverse mortgages,’ we thought that was ridiculous,” Liu said at the World Economic Forum in this eastern Chinese city. He said debt in the United States and elsewhere rose to “dangerous and indefensible” levels.
Salon.com
…that triple A rating is starting to sound under threat, isn’t it?
One would hope that there are 30 million more republicans who are as shat off as “lamb” Shanks and they all decide to stay home and not vote.
http://www.opednews.com/articles/The-Angry-American-by-Sandy-Shanks-080925-392.html
Ha Gaffy….your history may be crap but your political observations are spot on.
Gaffy, the white hot rage of many Republican congressman is not well followed here, but there are a lot of them who want their party back from the cowboy and his cronies:
âYou were being asked to choose between financial meltdown on the one hand and taxpayer bankruptcy and the road to socialism on the other and you were told do it in 24 hours,â Representative Jeb Hensarling of Texas, head of the conservative group, said. âIt was just never going to happen.â
NYTimes
…and they are really, really mad. So, a divided party, a country in smoking financial ruins, and a belligerent old luddite for a candidate (and Moose Patty side kick).
Hmmm, recipe for electoral success? I think not.
Ferny @ 1083 sprung from detention.
1084
Kirri
It is starting to stick out more like swollen dogs’ … heh!
Found a bloke that really likes Dick “chopper” Cheney.
Says he’s a nice bloke LOL!
http://www.opednews.com/articles/Oil-or-What-Life-After-C-by-Peter-Barus-080926-181.html
I posted one of this blokes rants the other day.
Really expresses himself just like Bushfire Bill.
http://www.opednews.com/articles/When-you-are-victims-of-el-by-W-Christopher-Epl-080926-313.html
1060 Gaffhook Yes he did.
1065 Chris B Jeez Chris learn to spell. đ won not one.
1084 Kirribilli Removals Maybe some of them might quite the party over this.
A Fillibuster-proof Senate is Conceivable (again).
http://www.electoral-vote.com
Rasmussen has moved another point in Obama’s favour (50-44), this is before the debate.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Jon Stewart does a classic job on Bush, eviscerates McCain, and his role as the banker as Paulson and Bernanke come for a ‘little loan’ is hysterical:
http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/index.jhtml?episodeId=186045
…Stewart is firing on all cylinders.
I forgot to mention Votemaster has the senate:
58 Democrats 42 Repugs
HusseinWorm @ 1092
Just remember that this particular Rasmussen poll was done in the lead-up to the debate. Still an extremely handy lead for Obama, but we won’t see the real post-debate indicator polls for a few days yet!
1093 Kirribilli Removals Did you notice McCains face on the right hand side (his left). In one of those shots his face has really dropped. That’s a real worry about his health!
1093 Kirribilli Removals Another great payout on McCain.
That Raspo’s gonna put fear of political oblivion into many a gopper gut, Hussy:)
Gaffy & Ferny; Enjoyed tonight’s History exchange. Bleedin’ civilized it was! Ought to be more of it. Take Uncle Duke for example………..here was a guy who liked to keep it all in perspective.
Sat Sept 27:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/doonesbury;_ylt=A0WTUfDoNt5Id7IATSIDwLAF
Fri Sept 26:
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/mattbors;_ylt=AuAUG4s8wwLd52VT52ip4PTV.i8C
Sat Sept 27:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/billschorr;_ylt=A0WTUfDoNt5Id7IAVyIDwLAF
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/59885
————————————
Garcon! Lâaddition, sâil vous plait pour les peuples.
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/60175
Biden on CNN after the debate.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SB3MVphrJRk
Watch this, then watch Palin’s interview with Katie Couric and then look forward to the VP debate. đ
Palin ProblemSheâs out of her league. By Kathleen Parker