I believe that Obama will retain all the Kerry states, including New Hampshire. I also believe he will win Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia. Read on to discover how Barack Obama will capture 310 electorial votes against 228 for John McCain.
With the current state of the polls and people’s interpretations of what the polls say is going to happen in 8 weeks varying by a large amount, I thought I would state just what is required to win in November, and what I personally believe will happen.
The Numbers
The results in 2004 were Kerry 251, Bush 286. The states that Obama can possibly take from McCain according to the polls are Colorado (9), Florida (27), Indiana (11), Iowa (7), Missouri (11), Montana (3), New Mexico (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Nevada (5), Ohio (20), South Dakota (3) and Virginia (13). The states McCain can possibly take are Michigan (17), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (21) and Wisconsin (10).
This gives Obama and McCain absolute maximums of 383 and 338 respectively.
Now to be more realistic about the candidate’s chances, the only state that McCain can reasonably believe he can take is New Hampshire. Obama on the other hand is almost guaranteed Iowa, while Colorado, Florida, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia are all very much in play.
This means that Obama’s likely maximum is 333 while McCain’s is 290.
Barack Obama needs 19 electoral votes more than Kerry to win, or 23 if McCain takes New Hampshire.
COMMUNITY NOTICE
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What’s with all this “rattled” stuff people? Obama needed to take the gloves off. All this nice guy politics works with the high-minded Democrats but most Americans are loser, evolutionary-throwback rednecks. They want to see a bit of biffo. It makes it easier for them to identify with Obama and Biden. He’s coming across too much as a ponderous intellectual lawyer at the moment.
Diogenes,
I have never advocated for nice-guy politics. Attack ads work for a reason. Obama needs to attack McCain on the economy. If Obama fights Palin, it is a presidential candidate versus a vice-presidential candidate, and Obama loses that battle just by being in it.
David Gould at 303
With McCain’s latest sex-education-for-kindies ad – I would watch things unfold tomorrow and I’m quietly expecting things to escalate with Obama taking on McCain forcefully and personally.
Catrina at 304,
I think that your expectation is a reasonable one.
Palin is the presidential candidate now, for a lot of republicans. Obama is trailing most among white males. Letting them know that there’s at least a trace amount of testosterone emanating from his groin into his musculature, will not hurt him among that group.
She seems to be the presidential candidate for most of the media, too. But this is something that Obama cannot get drawn into.
HusseinWorm at 306
Actually – the Palin pick has generated a movement of independent men to Obama (about 6% from memory).
True. It is women who have moved to McCain.
yep
p.s. I’m assuming everything is working ok (retention of alias and email data) – at least it worked for me but it would be good to get some external confirmation of the changes!
Yes, it works fine.
David Gould at 312
Just goes to show that God is actually on *our* side.
Or at the very least the Higgs Boson.
I didn’t say that independant voting men haven’t moved to Obama or that white women haven’t moved to Palin. I said Obama is trailing most among white men. The hockey moms are going to vote for their gal regardless.
yep Catrina – well done, again. And thanks.
Diogenes – good to see you here. I also reckon Obama needs to show a bit of grit: but not by attacking Palin – it will only inflame the “He’s an Elitist” brigade, and god knows we’ve heard enough from them . He needs to go for the jugular on McBush, and start now so that the non- candidte Palin stays exactly that.
Or Hillary should have a jelly-wrestling match with her
David Gould at 314
Here I am slaving away to bring peace and harmony to this site and you bring up Higgs Boson and I end up over on Wikipedia reading about particle physics.
Catrina,
A standard Republican trick to sow discord.
More spin on porcinegate, via HuffPost, via ABCNews:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/09/a-piggish-debat.html
Speaking on behalf of the McCain campaign, former Massachusetts Gov. Jane Swift tonight flatly stated that Obama had called Palin a pig.
“[T]he formation of the Palin Truth Squad couldn’t have happened too soon, as we saw when Sen. Obama in Lebanon, Va., this evening uttered what I can only deem to be disgraceful comments comparing our vice presidential nominee Gov. Palin to a pig,” Swift said.
“Sen. Obama owes Gov. Palin an apology,” she said.
Asked why she was so confident Obama was “comparing” Palin to a pig, she said Palin was the only one of the four candidates on both parties’ tickets who wears lipstick.
“She is the only one of the four candidates for president, or the only vice presidential candidate who wears lipstick,” Swift said. “I mean, it seemed to me a very gendered comment.”
But, Swift added, if “as part of his apology Sen. Obama wants to say, no, he was calling Sen. McCain — who is a true hero in our country — a pig, then I suppose we could wait en masse for an apology to that, as well.”
It was pointed out to Swift that, after the line about the pig, Obama had said, “You can wrap an old fish in a piece of paper called ‘change,’ it’s still gonna stink after eight years.”
Swift then suggested that Obama was calling McCain a fish.
“I have a fourth-grader and two second-graders at home,” she said. “I would not teach them that this is sort of a high-minded debate on policy issues when they are calling people rotten old fish or a pig. In fact, it sounds a lot like some of the least intelligent debates on the playground sound like at our elementary school.”
A reporter then reminded Swift that in December, McCain was asked about criticisms coming his way from then-opponent Gov. Mitt Romney, R-Mass., and McCain replied, “Never get into a wrestling match with a pig. You both get dirty, and the pig likes it.”
Was McCain calling Romney a pig? a reporter asked Swift.
Of course not, Swift said.
David Gould at 318
Nah – but a good try – keep in mind that standard Rebublican tricks are founded on creationism and particle physics just doesn’t get a look in. If I didn’t know better I’d say you were just pulling my chain! But forget about that – there is this thing that is bothering me. Where are the Republicans that are Republicans because of beliefs about role of small government etc. who aren’t all bent and twisted with religion? I mean – I just don’t believe that every Republican is a sick and twisted – Ron Paul proves that. Like him or not – he’s not off in fairyland.
There are very few true economic conservatives left. There are populists with right wing social views and populists with left wing social views. And maybe there are some true socialists left. But economic conservatism has been destroyed as a force in politics – apart from the lip service that all sides pay to it, of course.
And for the record I am a free market socialist.
Update on my You Tube visitors being 87% male. I have had a huge influx of US visitors to my site. I suspect either women are signing on to You Tube as males, or men are visiting my site to look at girls in pretty dresses. They have plenty of other places to go for that type of stuff, so I suspect the former.
Husseinworm@319
knew it.
Chris B at 322
The internet is a funny thing. In the middle of that Georgia crisis – Russia had invaded, war was raging for at least a couple of days – and in all of that I had someone from Georgia reading my Minestrone Soup recipe.
David Gould at 321
Do you know of any serious analysis that digs into the what the Republican base really is? We all know that the Dems are recruiting more voters than the Repugs and I’m just wondering if this trend is something we can directly attribute to education levels.
Observe, DG. While you’re worried about Obama upsetting the hockey moms, McCain’s daughter is on telly, telling people that her dad dated a stripper.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/09/meghan-mccain-today-show_n_125203.html
Well HW @326
that will earn him a percentage point bump from the moron male demographic straight away.
296
Catrina
I agree entirely. And yes my name and mail is workin too.
There is no point in the Dems going full on when they are shootin at shadows with nearly 60 days to go. Any swift boats that leave port now will run out of fuel before 60 days are up. Anything that basically happens or is said now will be forgotten in 5 days time. Better to keep the powder dry and launch all the bungers very close to Guy Fawkes day so that it is still ringin in their ears,
It looks like the Big banks Fannie and Freddie may be getting bailed out but there are are a few lesser banks that are going to have to close because the Fed will not bail them. There is lot of flack to come and if i were the Dems i would be bundling all that sort of info into one big package like the video at 297.
Everyone needs to settle down, kick back, stand beside their cottonfields, listen to a bit of musical strategy and wait patiently to pounce.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCgZjGYeJ8A
327
Jen
Probably won’t cause any bumps anywhere else.
For all you bone rattlers, pessimists, optomertrists or whatever trists you are the same type of backfire can happen to McSenile.
I guess it all depends who Warnie is bowling for.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/09/mccain-ad-cites-articles_n_125218.html
302
Diogenes
I sympathize with the idea that Obama needs to come out and fight at some stage and maybe now is the time (maybe not,I wouldn’t know).
But keeping with the whole boxing thing, the last two have been “swing an a miss”
And quite likely he followed through and ended up hitting himself upside the head
On reflection, “swing an a miss” is probably baseball, but I get most of my info on Americans via Family Guy so…
Registration needed.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/09/09/obama_broke_money_record.html
Builder on line take on Freddie and Fannie bailout!
http://www.builderonline.com/mortgages-and-banking/analysts-critique-bailout-of-fannie-freddie.aspx?cid=BLDR080909002
Here is a take on the political football that the bail out has morphed in to.
It seems clear that McChange has made some huge changes regarding who will be his economic guru. LOL.
http://www.builderonline.com/finance/officials-use-gse-takeover-for-divergent-agendas.aspx
Thak you Oh optimistic ones.
My “rattledness” is based on my barley disguised contempt for the general American public – and hoping they are not as bloody superficial as they seem is my “Audacity of Hope”.
Doesn’t take much for me to lose such hope. A glance at commercial televison is generally enough. So I desperately want to proven wrong, and could use all the encouragement and counter-argumnets you can come up with. The alternative to Obama winning doesn’t bear thinking about.
btw- Kirribilli around at all??
Chris B
Here is one for you to rate. New BO add to Hey Now!
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=oElJy_eFeLk
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/09/09/obama_book_rockets_up_charts.html
337 Gaffhook Thanks. Done.
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/09/09/bbc_poll_most_countries_want_obama_elected.html
Hmmm. Wonder if this will be reflected in November?
Someone will probably point out that the rest of the world isn’t polling in this election. You serious?
For those people rattled by the latest polls , check out Busted!: Gallup, CBS, USA.Today, etc. Tinkers With Party ID Again
Polls were conducted with higher (up to 9%) samplings of Republicans than in July. Despite the fact that there are 11 million more registered Democrats than Republicans. The whole story (and the Huff Post it links to) is worth a read.
thanks kevin, i WAS getting rattled. The problem is that most Americans wont know about the sampling, and the McCain comeback narrative will take shape
Despite the fact that democrats have a 11million vote advantage over republicans, these polls still decided to shift in the favor of Republicans, coming out of their convention, which only gives the perception of McCain really gaining steam.
# 341 Thanks a million Kevin. I new they weren’t right. Just using logic told me that.
David we have our answer at last. Here is some more enrollment information. Have a look at the states where enrollment for the Democrats is the strongest. A couple a very surprising Kentucky and Louisiana.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/07/a_new_electorate_in_the_making.html
What I can’t find is the how many voters each has so I can work out a percentage. That will give as a rough idea of the real state of play. I did say rough.
West Virginia has 27% more Democrats registered.
That’s good news ,Chris.
And am glad they discovered the higher sampling of Repugs…..a dirty,but clever,trick.
#339
[BBC Poll: Most Countries Want Obama Elected.]
It simply reveals the world seeing something so obvious that unfortunately many American’s can’t see: Obama would make a FAR better president than McCain for the U.S. and for the world.
348 Noocat The polls aren’t correct. They don’t take into account the 11 million more registered Democrats.
I missed this bit.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/9/18192/04144/290/592615
Chris B – even so, a very large number are backing McCain. And at least 30% still think Bush is doing a great job… it’s all about social identities.
Anyway, looks like the news is dominated by Obama’s “gaffe”. The tabloids are going crazy. It will be a live and learn moment for camp Obama, but at least puts him back in the spotlight. Still plenty of days left before the election…
I reckon there must make a 10% difference in favour of the Democrats.
Maybe it’s good that the press is suppressing the true situation, when it hits they won’t know what happened.
351 Noocat His approval rating is 28% that is one of the lowest ratings ever. 80% think the country is going the wrong way. Whichever way you look at it. McCain is stuffed.
Morning all,
Off topic-scanning the papers,I often find news related to Australia in the foreign press but not mentioned in ours.
This proposal for a 1 million-square kilometre Coral sea conservation park off the Barrier Reef is a fantastic idea.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/2/story.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10531613
Obama sends a message to McCain …
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/26640762#26640762
Back to Obama, watched the first O’Reilly interview with the sound off ,as I wanted to read the visual/body language cues.
O’Reilly’s hostility was so evident via his dead-eyed stare, his rigid body language,and as the interview continues, you can see Obama fading from the cheery confident to a more submissive, entreating posture. O’Reilly won dominance which is not a good look.
Hope Obama has a body language coach to ensure he maintains a physical ‘equal’ if not dominant body position . Visual impressions have quite an impact. O’Reilly illustrates the ruthlessness that may cost the dems if they are not careful. Just hope that there are enough US people who want a better ,kinder world-we don’t want pitbulls in charge.
Excellent,Cat!
That’s more like it…a bull’s eye!
Mr. Biden, addressing donors at two fund-raisers in Chicago on Tuesday night, described how he is approaching his debate with Ms. Palin.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/10/biden-chooses-debate-prep-partner/
Huffington Post front page …
* BACKLASH
* GUTTER POLITICS
* ABC: McCain’s ‘Truth Squad… Full Of Half-Truths’…
* Time Mag: McCain “Responsible For One Of The Sleaziest Ads I’ve Ever Seen”…
* Washington Post: “Untrue Accusations, Rumors Have Started To Swirl … They Become Regarded As Fact”….
* MSNBC: Evidence Palin, McCain Not Telling Truth About Bridge To Nowhere…
* AP: Fact Check… McCain Ad About Palin Is Misleading…
355 @ 357
Now thats what I’m talkin about
How good was that speech
352
Chris B
Or when they put the diebold machines in and the votes come out showing a slender victory for the Repugs they will say; See the polls were correct. BO is going to need lawyers everywher on the ground to keep an eye on the barstewards they will be up to no good wherever they get a chance. They will vote cage every opportunity they get as well.
The (_?_) Seppos will be oblivious to all the Repug shennanigans!
355
Catrina
Good find. I am of the opinion that when he gets a real good opportunity for something like that he should go after the reporters as well. He had the perfect opportunity especially with Mc(_?_) making the same pig reference to/about Romney a short time back. He should be saying things like how much credibility do the journos have to try to put that bullshit across like that etc. He has the money to get it on the Emedia without the journos chopping it.
355 Catrina Brilliant comeback, makes McCains team look petty.
mornin’ all-
can’t get sound on my home computer so will have to watch your link later Catrina, but looks like Obama is coming out swinging.
Yay!
Also good to see some of the media are starting to do their job: report the facts.. there’s a novelty.
Am starting to fell less concerned from yesterday- thanks for all the great info that corrected the distortions in polling etc. Maybe its a sign that there is greater sense of alertness this time and the Repug dirty tactics will be exposed as soon as they try them on. Thanks to the internet.. could be the real difference this time.
A blistering attack on John McCain’s over on the Daily Kos
Honor – To Have And Have Not – by SGT MAJOR MYERS
Catrina @ 359
It’s heartening to see the MSM calling the Repiblicans on their lies and distortions. Especially the likes of the NY Times and the Washington Post.
Also, on Huffington Post, Matt Damon speaks some sense…
“I think there’s a really good chance Sarah Palin could become president, and I think that’s a really scary thing… I think the pick was made for political purposes… Do the actuary tables and there’s a one out of three chance, if not more, that McCain doesn’t survive his first term and it’ll be President Palin… It’s like a really bad Disney movie. The hockey mom, you know, ‘oh, I’m just a hockey mom’… and she’s facing down President Putin… It’s totally absurd… it’s a really terrifying possibility… I need to know if she really think that dinosaurs were here 4,000 years ago. I want to know that, I really do. Because she’s gonna have the nuclear codes. ”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/10/matt-damon-on-palin-like_n_125334.html
Katielou at 365
Some serious blowback against the McCain Campaign on lipstick.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/26646827#26646827
I see Youtube pulled the McCain ad re the lipstick comment after a request from CBS on the basis it was misleading.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0908/CBS_takes_down_McCain_webad_suggests_its_misleading.html?showall
Katielou at 367
Yep – every single piece of the ad following the lead Palin lipstick line was from contextual places that misrepresented the sources. All of the MSM have articles pushing back against the McCain Campaign on the subject is misleading ads and in some cases outright lies. Maybe, just maybe – we may be seeing the negative impact of the McCain Campaign going negative too early.
It’s certainly spun around hard and bitten M’Cain on the bum, I hope it lasts because it will be very very hard for them to do negative attacks from here on in, well at least neg attacks that are based on bullshit.
Morning all. My ID details are now in place in the reply box.
ZThis morning Guardian had this to say about the world’s reaction to a McCain win:
“Even if it’s not ethnic prejudice, but some other aspect of the culture wars, that proves decisive, the point still holds. For America to make a decision as grave as this one – while the planet boils and with the US fighting two wars – on the trivial basis that a hockey mom is likable and seems down to earth, would be to convey a lack of seriousness, a fleeing from reality, that does indeed suggest a nation in, to quote Weisberg, “historical decline”. Let’s not forget, McCain’s campaign manager boasts that this election is “not about the issues.”
It’s worth a read
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/sep/10/uselections2008.barackobama
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown Endorses Obama
Have you seen the little piggies
Crawling in the dirt
And for all the little piggies
Life is getting worse
Always having dirt to play around in.
Have you seen the bigger piggies
In their starched white shirts
You will find the bigger piggies
Stirring up the dirt
Always have clean shirts to play around in.
In their sties with all their backing
They don’t care what goes on around
In their eyes there’s something lacking
What they need’s a damn good whacking.
Everywhere there’s lots of piggies
Living piggy lives
You can see them out for dinner
With their piggy wives
Clutching forks and knives to eat their bacon.
(Lennon & McCartney)
————————
Cat, all Pol 101 bells and whistles working OK at this end. Fan-bloody-tastic!!
————————-
Wed Sept 10:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AnXiLHL6jkHH3q_2UU0XHCHXj5Z4
Wed Sept 10:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/laloalcaraz;_ylt=Asg1HEdemX155AxnK2_YHu0l6ysC
Wed Sept 10:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tonyauth;_ylt=AgKBc5v66C0MxPa4SZ8SVZbe.sgF
Wed Sept 10:
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/mattbors;_ylt=AmqtqRhE48SiBflhfsiwqirmcLQF
Wed Sept 10:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/doonesbury;_ylt=Ash37Ux0y1R0_ln0ImnBHCDXj5Z4
Wed Sept 10:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/henrypayne;_ylt=Ag8yt5rDJ1xJ7iCtzSxFyvHb.sgF
Wed Sept 10:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=AteCMeUDfpaLqxLSaxOlI8nb.sgF
Ferny at 370 sprung from the spam joint on his own recognizance
Spam Inbox
See my reply at About#14
Ferny @ 370
Thanks for that article link. It’s a somewhat depressing read, but he’s managed to put into words some concerns I share. What would the election of McCain/Palin say about America to the rest of the world? And what would be the aftermath for America?
It’s the same feeling I had when I heard a part of McCain’s acceptance speech. He started to say something like”Americans are doing it tough because the economy is not doing great”, and this animalistic chant of “USA! USA!” started. That moment in the speech freaked me out a little. It said to me, that here were a bunch of people in complete denial. They reduce important complex issues to jingoistic chants and one-liners. It was scary stuff to me.
Katielou at 375
I think the McCain/Palin ticket is scaring the hell out of a lot of people on the diplomatic circuit. A British Prime Ministers does not normally endorse a US Presidential Candidates. I’m expecting to see more noise like this from Europe and elsewhere as things move forward.
KatieLou
,” that here were a bunch of people in complete denial. They reduce important complex issues to jingoistic chants and one-liners. It was scary stuff to me.”
exactly. And they vote – In large numbers .
jen – just a note – I’ve bumped your privs to Contributor.
Catrina@376
there is a danger in this though. Parochial Americans don’t like being told how they should run their affairs (never mind`that their decisions have major impact on the entire planet)and there can be a backlash reaction to perceived interference from pesky outsiders who should mind their own business.
Catrina- does Ranting count as Contributing???
jen at 380
Absolutely.
Drives up ratings like nothing else.
Wed Sept 10:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=ArZdX7TSCzaNyxet9AKrzXvV.i8C
Wed Sept 10:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/patoliphant;_ylt=Ai9Ph6NbHk2K.L0FZfehM2XV.i8C
Wed Sept 10:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/billday;_ylt=AicJ42WvxebQ0yiA9h8WWPvXj5Z4
Wed Sept 10:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/bensargent;_ylt=AoeOB1lcK0lJAaSQ1xf9zCjb.sgF
Wed Sept 10:
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/thequigmans;_ylt=AhJqqNQKtwPPjX6XMcyUlBcl6ysC
EC at 382
I was counting the minutes until you came up with a pig cartoon!
ROTFLOL
McCain finds it tough without Palin
Source: Reuters
Well done on the new site Catrina.
In defence of pigs – they have done nothing to deserve being compared to George Bush, McCain’s economic policies and Sarah (more pork for Alaska) Palin. By comparison they are fairly intelligent and only a problem when they go feral.
MSNBC have been running a series of on-line polls. I found the last three interesting:
* Q: Do you blame the Obama or McCain camps for the recent spate of negativity in the campaign? A: 71% McCain
* Q: Do you think back-and-forth attacks help Americans make up their minds about who is best qualified to be president? A: 83% no.
* Q: Which team will be most effective in changing Washington politics? A: 72% Obama/Biden
Wakefield at 385
Forget about the pigs – just ask yourself the question – when Sarah Palin takes off her lipstick at night – what are you left with? I should note that I can’t answer that question because it would contravene our editorial policy.
Do girlfriends share lipstick in Alaska too?
http://www.truthdig.com/cartoon/item/20080910_palin_and_pork/
387-
why Catrina? Does she turn into r/Ron?
jen at 389
not unless r/Ron is a bitch on heat – but I guess that’s possible
366 Catrina Wow! The were absolutely savage on the Republican guy. He had nowhere to go. The Lipstick on a pig thing is starting to backfire on them.
Palin, Unmasked
372 Enemy Combatant A Loner at night might assassinate you for writing something like that.
Interesting that a couple of days after Russia talks about war games in the Caribbean – uncomfortably close to the Panama Canal for the Americans – Ruddster talks about boosting the navy and protecting our trade routes. Those who have the job of anticipating this stuff, have seen the writing on the wall. This is the legacy of Bush’s foreign policy, a more dived, more hostile world. This is why the government will be rerouting our tax dollars into more military hardware. This is why Obama must be elected President.
and this is why Mrs Palin must not get anywhere the Whitehouse
http://www.salon.com/mwt/feature/2008/09/11/zombie_feminism/
Yes – and shucks, I’ve just been recruited. As of Monday I’ll be playing with army boys wearing boots and navy guys in white uniforms.
Catrina@390-
are you trying to win votes for her??
jen at 397
I’m just trying to keep an open mind on all of this!
Catrina-
I know- it’s so difficult isn’t it???
There she is, a super-mom with great teeth and all those kiddies who just wants what’s best for her loved ones and her country. Personally, I find taking my young daughter out for a spot of reindeer shooting does wonders for her sense of self. And I rest easier knowing that all my kiddies know how to handle semi- automatic weapons, particularly when they could get shot at school, so I just love it that they can protect themselves.
jen at 399
Just don’t mention Rudolph!