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It has been clear for a long while now that the Democrats will increase their control of the US Senate, the question has always been by how much and can they reach the 60 votes required to win a vote on ‘cloture‘ and force though legislation. With several races in the bag and others that could go either way, I thought I would look at the races and state how likely it is that the Democrats will reach the magic number.

The Democrats currently control 51 seats in the 100 seat Senate. There are 35 senate elections occurring on November 4, 11 of which are considered competitive and 10 of those are currently held by the Republicans. The only Democratic seat in any danger is in Louisiana and is held by Mary Landrieu. The last poll conducted by a major polling organisation had her lead ballooning out to 53-37 on Aug 17, so she should now be safe.

The Republican seats that are almost certain to fall are Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia. Alaska is looking sure to fall as well, where Sen. Ted Stevens is not only likely to lose his seat, but is also at risk of crossing his Bridge only to discover that while Nowhere lacks basic amenities, it does have a jail cell. That gets the Democrats to 56.

The seats that are currently statistical ties are Minnesota and Oregon, with North Carolina’s last 3 polls being 48-42 Rep, 35-35 Tie and 51-45 Dem for a average of 42.67 each. In Mississippi Republican Roger Wicker has held a lead of about 48-43 for a couple of months while in Maine, Susan Collins looks sure to retain her seat.

Taking the optimistic view that the economic situation will help the Democrats, it therefore leaves the Senate line-ball on either 59 or 60. A more reserved outlook however would put the Democrats on 56.

There is also the question of Joe Lieberman. If the Senate becomes 56-44, there is a chance that he would be thrown out of the party. However if the result is 59-60 then the need to ensure his vote will see him remain. Lieberman will not leave himself, as that would lose him his positions on committees, including 3 chairmanships. The Democrat numbers also include Independent Socialist Bernie Sanders from Vermont, but there is not question that he will continue to causus with the Democrats.

857 Responses to “The Senate: Democrat By How Much?”

  1. 701
    Chris B says:

    Obama’s Ground Game

    With the McCain campaign retreating from Michigan into Wisconsin, Walter Shapiro heads to Green Bay and notices a distinct difference between the ground games of Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain

    This is very interesting.
    http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/10/05/obamas_ground_game.html

  2. 702
    Catrina says:

    COMMUNITY NOTICE

    Fame, fortune and life adventure await those who publish on Politic 101. Follow the lead of Barack Obama, the best Presidential Candidate, and say to yourself “yes I can”. If you’re not sure how or you’re a little intimidated by this technology stuff – just let me know with a hint in a comment and I’ll open up a one-on-one channel to instant fame and fortune. Just email me your content and you will be on your way to celebrity status.

    :-)

  3. 703
  4. 704
    Chris B says:

    Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton has raised more than $8 million for former rival Barack Obama’s presidential campaign since July and plans to barnstorm the country for even more cash, as the New York senator works to show she is aggressively helping the candidate who cut short her White House bid.

    “I am using every tool that I have to help Democrats win,” Clinton told USA TODAY. She was between fundraising events in Texas and California that brought in another $1.5 million for Obama and congressional candidates on Friday and Saturday.
    Later this month, Clinton will headline Obama fundraisers in Chicago, Philadelphia and Little Rock along with 11 events to raise money for Democratic congressional candidates and state parties.

    http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-10-05-Clinton_N.htm

  5. 705
    Chris B says:

    Poll: VP debate failed to boost John McCain.

    The vice presidential debate has done nothing to inject new support for John McCain’s White House challenge, according to the latest polls.

    Gallup’s daily tracking poll, taken between Oct. 2-4, yesterday revealed registered voters across the country continued to favor Democrat Barack Obama with 50 percent of the vote to McCain’s 43 percent.

    Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll yesterday reported an identical lead for Obama with 51 percent of the vote to McCain’s 44.

    http://news.bostonherald.com/news/national/politics/2008/view.bg?articleid=1123674&srvc=home&position=active

  6. 706
    Ferny Grover says:

    Ta Ecky….does that mean I’d get to post links again without being binned??

  7. 707
    Chris B says:

    Obama Surges Ahead in Florida.

    A worldwide economic crisis can make a lot of difference to a voter. Or at least it has done to Isabelle Murawski. For the past two elections, the pensioner has reliably voted for George W Bush, casting her ballot in Florida’s Broward County, one of the epicentres of the voting debacle that saw Bush win the White House in 2000.

    http://www.alternet.org/election08/101688/obama_surges_ahead_in_florida/

  8. 708
    Catrina says:

    Ferny Grover at 706

    Even I get binned from time to time – thing is that some of us have magical powers that allow us to go in a kick the monsters but.

    :-)

  9. 709
    Andrew says:

    One of the good things about the bruising primary battle is that the voters have heard all the Ayers, Rezco and Wright crap already, nothing new except its lipstick saying it.

    My sense and hope is that the US voters will ignore this stuff because they want change (just like our voters ignored all the anti-rudd stuff)

  10. 710
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    The idea of Minnie Moose “attacking” Obama is rather amusing, and is going to make her look more like a typical Washington pollie than any kind of straight shooting hick or whatever her image is supposed to be.

    Obama’s had Clinton do this to him and survived it easily, so why does Minnie Moose think she can do it again and get a different result?

    Desperation, I guess.

  11. 711

    Aye, Kirri, the desperation of the damned.

    And then they began to eat their own…….

    http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=bjAQ-GMlVjU&eurl=http://thinkprogress.org/
    ———————–
    Ferny, our community spaminator is an equal opportunity discriminator and as Door Nazis go, a right proper bastard, despite it’s Nuremburgal bleatings that it was only doing its job. My understanding was that Cat was gonna toss you a spare key via email so you could release yourself on your own recognizance:)
    That way a gent and a scholar like yourself could post multi-linked comments and spring them in a trice if netted, thereby enjoying the spontaneity that wit delayed can never provide.

  12. 712
    Ferny Grover says:

    Thanks for that Cat and Ecky! I better get busy and find my muse then! One must earn one’s keep.

  13. 713
    Andrew says:

    Just reported on lateline that 7 of Palin’s employees will testify in troopergate probe. Apart from everything else that is bad about Palin, why would you chose someone in the middle of an ethics probe??

  14. 714
  15. 715
    Ferny Grover says:

    Yep Andrew, they can probe all they like. They’re not likely to locate any ethics there.

  16. 716
    HarryH says:

    Q. Why would you choose someone in the middle of an ethics enquiry?

    A. Because McCain is a Tomcat.

  17. 717
    Catrina says:

    Andrew released at 714.

  18. 718
  19. 719
    Ferny Grover says:

    it’s a great album Ecky….though I have to say that dear ol’ Mark hasn’t put out a decent album since. His descent into rockabilly (a-la the woeful “Shangri La”) is….regrettable.

  20. 720
    Enemy Combatant says:

    Yeah, Ferny, “Devil Baby” does me in every time. M.K’s done some great support work with the likes of Sonny Landreth (Blue Tarp Blues) on his recent CD about the aftermath of Katrina. I understand he’s been domiciled in Nashville TN since the time he did another top shelf album, “Neck to Neck”, with Chet Atkins in the eighties. If you caught the Robert Altman movie, then maybe ~20 years in Nashville could be a tad too long for a Jordy lad in search of creative inspiration. Never met him, don’t really know. Saw him on telly once working up close and hands-on with disabled kids. He’s a pretty special human being.

    Et voila, mesdames et Monsieurs, zee latest polls. Do believe Mistah “Twinkletoes” Brown expresses rather well how I feel about them:)
    http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=XgDrJ5Z2rKw&feature=related

    http://demfromct.dailykos.com/

  21. 721
    HusseinWorm says:

    The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 52% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. This is the highest level of support ever recorded for Obama and is his largest lead of the year. It also continues a remarkable twenty-five days in a row where the Democrat’s support has never declined by even a single point. The Democratic candidate has gained six full percentage points of support since Lehman Brothers collapsed to start the Wall Street mess

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

  22. 722
    HusseinWorm says:

    Palin steals Madeleine Albright quote from Starbucks cup, mangles the quote and pisses off Madeleine Albright.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/05/palin-misquotes-albright_n_131967.html

    Who would have thought Sarah Palin was a Starbucks liberal? No cup of joe from Dunkin’ Donuts for Yup-Yup. What an elitist.

  23. 723
    blindoptimist says:

    Now KR, about the Aussie Battler….not such a good buy @ 0.83 afterall. it could be 1.05 by the end of the month, but is more likely to be 0.55 by next week.

  24. 724
    Chris B says:

    Obama Maintains Lead in the National Polls

    Four tracking polls published yesterday all show Barack Obama leading John McCain. The results are Diageo (Obama +7), Gallup (Obama +7), Rasmussen (Obama +7), and Research 2000 (Obama +12).

    http://www.electoral-vote.com

  25. 725
    Chris B says:

    Democrats are buzzing over a poll commissioned by the liberal blog Daily Kos, which shows the U.S. Senate race in Georgia to be a hair tighter than it was last week.

    The poll puts the Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss at 45 percent, and Democrat Jim Martin at 44 percent, with 4 percent going to “other” and 7 percent undecided.

    The poll was conducted 9/29-10/1, before the completion of Washington’s debate over the Wall Street bailout, and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4 percent.

    http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/shared-blogs/ajc/politicalinsider/entries/2008/10/06/another_poll_this_one_says_the.html

  26. 726
    Chris B says:

    Has Barack Obama taken Pennsylvania out of play?

    Pennsylvania is to Barack Obama what Ohio is to John McCain — a large, politically competitive state that he almost assuredly has to win to have any chance of moving into the White House.

    For much of the general election campaign, Pennsylvania seemed completely in play — a worrisome situation for Obama and his strategists.

    His loss there in April’s Democratic presidential primary to Hillary Clinton spotlighted his difficulties with working-class white voters.

    Throughout the summer, most polls gave Obama an edge over McCain in the state but placed the Republican well within striking range to grab its 21 electoral votes.

    http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/10/has-barack-obam.html

  27. 727
    Chris B says:

    Politics and Palin lure viewers to “SNL”

    The politics-fueled ratings train of “Saturday Night Live” keeps rolling along this election season with Tina Fey’s impersonations of Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin luring viewers.

    “SNL” averaged a 7.4 household rating/18 share in the metered market overnights, Nielsen Media Research said on Sunday afternoon. That’s within a tenth of a rating point of its September 13 premiere, which itself was the highest-rated show since December 14, 2002, when Al Gore and Phish appeared.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/industryNews/idUSTRE4953TT20081006

  28. 728
    Chris B says:

    Michelle Obama to Hit ‘Daily Show’

    Michelle Obama will make her first appearance on “The Daily Show with Jon Stewart” on Wednesday.

    http://washingtonindependent.com/10524/michelle-obama-to-hit-the-daily-show

  29. 729
    Chris B says:

    Election 2008: Can small turnout gains tip Southern elections?

    If any of you may be wondering if last-minute registrations really make a difference, Nate Silver at 538.com leads with some analysis today that shows how small registration and turnout gains could tip the election.

    And to make the point, he uses an unlikely example: Georgia.

    No polls show Georgia to be very close for the presidential race. But Silver shows how even a modest gain in African-American turnout could make Georgia — and other states with growing numbers of black voters, like North Carolina — a lot closer than you’d think.

    http://southernstudies.org/facingsouth/labels/538.com.asp

  30. 730
    Enemy Combatant says:

    G’ day Gang . My, aren’t we all looking chipper this morning. After the headlines and polls about the intertubes today………stone the bloody crows! Ya wouldn’t be dead for quids.

    Lest any of us doubt the strategic campaign genius of Steve “Schmuckens” Schmidt, here’s proof writ large in the Times of L.A.

    Convinced that McCain needed a dramatic gesture to make the race competitive, Schmidt pressed McCain to pluck the Alaska governor from obscurity.

    http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-schmidt6-2008oct06,0,555417.story

    And Bomb-Bomb has resorted to the dreaded “pants on fire” tactic in an attempt to excoriate that uppity Senatorial upstart from Illinois, you know wassisname, that madrassa educated Hoo-Sane guy.
    Wonder if this means that the GOPper “Maverick of All Mavericks” will have to actually look at Mr. Pal Around With Terrorists during the course of the second debate?

  31. 731
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    723
    blindoptimist

    Nup, the run on the USD is quite amazing.( But my call was at 79 cents, and although I didn’t buy, there was a very good trade in there for anyone who was quick.)

    Some of the sudden dump on the AUD is the expectation of our rates falling, but the biggest move is because hedge funds are getting their goolies crushed in resources and so falling commodities is driving our buck south. Also, there’s a shortage of USD (it’s a credit crunch, after all! LOL), so there’s a bit of buying up for those needing USD.

    The gyrations are spectacular, but even though I haven’t taken a close look yet, I’d have to reckon our dollar has been oversold. (When gold gets a 4% overnight you suspect the USD is soon to take some lumps.)

  32. 732
    Chris B says:

    One thing is certain any screams form the “big business” end of town in this election about socialism or liberalism etc will certainly be ignored. If they do raise their head maybe the voters will do the opposite?

  33. 733
    Chris B says:

    McCain forced to defend North Carolina.

    For the third weekend in a row, Barack Obama campaigned in North Carolina as part of the most vigorous Democratic effort since at least 1992 to win this reliably Republican state.

    At a surprise stop Saturday night at a North Carolina Democratic Party dinner and again a rally here Sunday in the state’s conservative western edge, Obama sounded a confident note:

    continued..

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14304.html

  34. 734
    Chris B says:

    733 Chris B That article makes great reading.

  35. 735
    Chris B says:

    Palin ‘trying to keep Fey in business’

    Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin joked Monday that her recent gaffes during media interviews were just providing “job security to SNL writers.”

    Pointing to her “less than successful interview I had recently with the mainstream media” Palin told a crowd in Clearwater, Florida, “I was just trying to keep Tina Fey in business.”

    Well at least she has a sense of humour if nothing else going for her.
    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14312.html

  36. 736
  37. 737
    Chris B says:

    Obama expands North Carolina lead.

    With his party beginning to line up behind him to a greater extent than it
    had previously, Barack Obama has opened up a 50-44 lead over John McCain in North
    Carolina in the newest survey from Public Policy Polling.
    Last week Obama led by two points. He is now winning 82% of the Democratic vote,
    compared to just 74% a week ago. For most of the general election his share of his own
    party’s vote has hovered in the upper 60’s and lower 70’s

    Isn’t it a great day? Haven’t seen any concern trolls in a while.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_100625.pdf

  38. 738
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    732
    Chris B

    The big end of town is the one with the begging bowl out CB, and aren’t in the slightest concerned what you call it: bailout, socialism or corporate welfare, they just want the money, and quickly.

    Oddly, it’s the far right joining forces with the far left who find this Paulsen plan sticking in their throats. Just another little irony, huh?

  39. 739
    Chris B says:

    FCUK!

    Though the Commonwealth of Virginia has voted Republican in ten straight Presidential elections, a new poll by Suffolk University signals that Democrat Barack Obama is poised to break that historic streak. Obama (51 percent) leads Republican John McCain (39 percent) by 12 percentage points.

    McCain will be pulling his team out of here shortly! Circle the wagons!

    http://suffolk.edu/31220.html

  40. 740
    Chris B says:

    I can’t decide whether Al Gore should be in charge of the environment or Internet and media, or whatever that is. Strategically, the later would be the best.

  41. 741
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    Makes you wanna weep:

    “I wake up every single night thinking what I could have done differently,” Mr. Fuld said, adding, “This is a pain that will stay with me the rest of my life.”

    …Lehman Brothers CEO. The 350 milllion bucks he ‘earned’ since 2000 will also stay with him too, so maybe we shouldn’t be too concerned for the poor man, eh?

    His other good line was how was he to know that the subprime mortgage market was going to cause this much damage to financial markets?

    If he really didn’t have a clue, then why was he paid $350m to ‘run’ the company? LOL

  42. 742
    Chris B says:

    I REALLY, REALLY hope Obama has a national TV campaign for the last 2-3 weeks. That would be the icing on the cake, and really demoralising for the Republicans. I suspect a lot will stay home, in spite of Palin.

  43. 743
    David Gould says:

    Everything looks excellent for Obama, and I cannot see a mechanism by which McCain can turn this around, as there is nothing on the calendar. Four weeks may be a long time in politics, but I suspect that it is going to both seem an eternity and a microsecond for McCain and his team …

    Someone mentioned a while back about me altering my prediction of 298 EVs. Well, I cannot retrospectively alter it: that was my prediction. However, I will say that my prediction will, according to current polling – and polls are what I go by, after all – turn out to be significantly in error on the downside. :)

  44. 744
    OzFrog says:

    Latest State Rasmussen polls care of RCP:

    Ohio Obama 47, McCain 48 McCain +1
    Florida Obama 52, McCain 45 Obama +7
    Virginia Obama 50, McCain 48 Obama +2
    Colorado Obama 51, McCain 45 Obama +6
    Missouri Obama 50, McCain 47 Obama +3

    He’s leading in Missouri??!

  45. 745
    OzFrog says:

    BTW, it looks like on PollBludger that the vitriol against Obama from the Hillary supporters is increasing almost in lockstep with McCain ramping up his negative campaign.

    Man, they don’t know how to take a defeat gracefully, do they?

    “The best candidate is not even in the race…” *sigh*

  46. 746
    Chris B says:

    Gee’s you don’t know how hard it is running the Democrats campaign from this side of the world. But the boys are responding well, and everything’s going to plan. :twisted:

  47. 747
    Ferny Grover says:

    Mornin’ all!

    Intrade is doing the splits again after yesterday’s shenanigans:

    Obama – 68.5 Whasisname – 31.6

  48. 748
    David Gould says:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/07/2383695.htm

    I am willing to bet that the majority of the political movies will be left leaning. They might exert some small influence on some centrist undecideds. At the very least, they will be some free anti-Bush/anti-Republican advertising.

  49. 749
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    743
    David Gould

    Having taken a little wager some time ago that Obama would get over 300 EV’s, I’m happy to believe you initially “misunderestimated” DG! LOL

  50. 750
    Ferny Grover says:

    Oh ya just gotta laugh some days doncha!

    Today’s release of the Keating 5 video is gonna have dear ol Grumpy McFart in a real tiz come debatin’ day. The Kid’ll need to wear a rain coat to avoid the fury n’ spittle.

    And if little Minnie Moose wants to vomit up Rev Wright again, I’d reckon some more videos from her own witch-huntin’, demon-chasin’ tongues-speakin’, creationist-spruikin’ neck of the ecclesiastical woods would turn up some very newsworthy nostrums from the lunatic fringe of Christendom.

  51. 751
    Chris B says:

    Have a look at the vulnerable senate seats on votemaster.
    http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Senate/Maps/Oct06-s.html

    Here is the Keating 5 documentary. Rate it, favourite and pass it on. Email it to friends. This can change a vote. Do your bit. Email it to 5 friends or more. PLEASE. PLEASE. PLEASE.

  52. 752
    Chris B says:

    We CAN change the world.

  53. 753
    Chris B says:

    A short shorter version of that, and another ad with McCain giving Georgie Boy lots of hugs, will be a great way to kick off a national advertising campaign.

  54. 754
    Chris B says:

    Oh bugger! If your going to ask people to send on a link Chris, you had better post it! Alzheimer’s!

    The Keating 5 video.
    http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=IDofbll86dY&feature=iv&annotation_id=event_922988

  55. 755
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    Krugman, in today’s NYTimes, agrees with McCain:

    In short, the McCain plan makes no sense at all, unless you have faith that the magic of the marketplace can solve all problems. And Mr. McCain does: a much-quoted article published under his name declares that “Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation.”

    I agree: the McCain plan would do for health care what deregulation has done for banking. And I’m terrified.

    ….LOL, another ‘endorsement’ (NOT)!

  56. 756
    Chris B says:

    For a decade or more, we’ve been promised an electoral transformation: Younger voters, minorities, and women will prevail over the older, conservative majority. Is this the year the predictions come true?

    For a decade, Democrats have heard promises that a durable electoral majority was just around the corner. It’s easy to construct such a majority on paper: Racial minorities and young voters (those born after 1978) turn out at record levels, working-class whites suppress their socially conservative leanings to vote their pocketbooks, and suburban professionals and their spouses vote together as unified blue households. Such a coalition could obliterate the aging, white, male, socially conservative Republican base that has dominated American politics for most of the past three decades.

    http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=five_questions_about_the_new_electorate

  57. 757
    Chris B says:

    This is an email I received about an hour ago.

    Chris —

    John McCain wants you to forget about his role in our country’s last major financial crisis and costly bailout: the savings and loan crisis of the late ’80s and early ’90s.

    But voters deserve to know that the failed philosophy and culture of corruption that created the savings and loan crisis then are alive in the current crisis — and in John McCain’s plans for our economic future.

    We just released a short documentary about John McCain’s role in that financial crisis — watch it now and share it with your friends:

    http://my.barackobama.com/keatingvideo

    Voters should know the facts about John McCain’s poor judgment — judgment that has twice placed him on the wrong side of history.

    Please forward this email to everyone you know.

    Thanks,

    David

    David Plouffe
    Campaign Manager
    Obama for America

  58. 758
    Chris B says:

    This advertisement and the combined effect of the Internet and the huge campaign that the Democrats have run with the Internet community. This will turn out to CLOSE being one of the biggest viral messages ever!

    Game set and match Mr. Barack Obama. USA

  59. 759
    Chris B says:

    Meant to say “to be close to being”.
    Just in case anyone wants to take me to task over that statement. :twisted:

  60. 760
    ferny says:

    How about this from the ultra Republican ‘Election-projection’ site:

    “Monday, October 6, 2008
    Weekly Election Projection Update:
    President: Did you hear that swoosh sound coming from Election Projection last week? No, it wasn’t the mortgage crisis. That noise was the bottom falling out for John McCain. The GOP nominee trailed Barack Obama by just 8 electoral votes in last week’s update. During the week however, state after state shed its redness in favor of a more azure shade. On Tuesday, Florida and Nevada switched from red to blue. On Wednesday, Virginia slid into Obama’s column, followed by Ohio on Thursday and North Carolina on Friday. And Missouri rounds out McCain’s collapse by bolting this morning.

    All in all, McCain lost a projected six states this week worth a staggering 91 electoral votes. His EV deficit ballooned from eight to 180 as he now trails Obama 364-174. Possibly the best news surrounding this week’s major shift for the Obama camp is that there’s nothing obvious on the horizon which presents McCain with an opportunity to substantially alter the playing field. If there is a ray of hope, it is in the fact that seven states are within 5 points right now. These “Weak Obama Gains” represent enough electoral votes that they would give him enough votes to win the presidency were they to find their way back into McCain’s camp.

    Therein lies the dilemma. There is no margin for error. As it stands now, McCain will have to run the table and win all seven of these battleground states – which he currently trails. That’s a very tall order. This race is not over, but it must be nice to be sitting in Obama’s position this morning.”

    see electionprojection.com

  61. 761
    ferny says:

    Oi! My names been shortened! It’s the WordPress version of a haircut!!

  62. 762
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    A letter from America that’s still pertinent today:

    As Alistair Cooke observed, “Americans seem to be more comfortable with Republican presidents because they share the common frailty of muddled syntax and because, when they attempt eloquence, they do tend to spout a kind of Frontier Baroque.”

    (quote by MoDo in the NYtimes)

    So, that’s what Minnie Moose spouts: “Frontier Baroque”

    I’m glad there’s a name for it! LOL

  63. 763
    Chris B says:

    It’s like the Geelong Port Adelaide grand final from last year. Three Quarter time, with no injuries. Can still afford a couple of broken legs. But in this case the Democrats still have a fit Nathan Buckley and James Hird sitting on the bench! :twisted:

  64. 764
    ferny says:

    I see the markets are in freefall again today. And poor ol Dubya is bleating away that the Bailout hasn’t had time to work yet. In reply to His Chimpness’ upbeat appraisal, the Market collectively said:
    AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Must be time for Bailout Mk II?!

    Sadly the Aussie is disappearing into the abyss as well. Time to give eBay a miss for a while.

  65. 765
    Chris B says:

    Here’s a link to the Republican Election Projection, maybe we could even put a link to it on our site!
    http://www.electionprojection.com

  66. 766
    Enemy Combatant says:

    It’s the WordPress version of a haircut!!

    Ferny de Fronded; coulda been a French philosopher with a handle like that:)
    ————————–
    Mon Oct 6:
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/patoliphant;_ylt=Ah0jqY6emGBSVyJCKT1OIuTe.sgF
    ———————————-
    Doublethinkers often encounter difficulties when comtemplating the subleties of the separation of church and state.

    The Prefect of the Vatican’s Supreme Court of the Apostolic Signature has accused the U.S. Democratic party of “transforming itself into a party of death”. Raymond Burke, former Archbishop of St. Louis, lashed out at high profile Catholics — vice presidential candidate Joe Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi — for misrepresenting Church teaching on abortion.

    http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/31328

    Not that Holy Mother Church ever pals around with Partys of Death, or any of that sort of thing.
    http://www.nobeliefs.com/images/hitler_cardinal4.jpg

  67. 767
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    764
    ferny

    yeah, it must be getting close to complete capitulation. I saw that 494 stocks on the S&P 500 were down at one stage last night…and that’s a pretty rare sight. If it wasn’t for the massive moonshot the US markets got towards close it would have been bye bye, toodle pip, and all over red rover today. As is, we are only (only! LOL) down another couple of percent.

  68. 768
    asanque says:

    Just had a look at pollbludger.

    Glad I’m not posting there anymore.

    The rabid delusional usual suspects are still there spouting their ignorance.

    They are so out of touch with reality and never seem to learn from their past mistakes. Instead they have resorted to bitter mudslinging.

    Just like the republicans.

  69. 769

    Remember last year when the size of Howard’s problem could be summarized with one little graph:

    http://possumcomitatus.files.wordpress.com/2007/05/howardsproblem101.jpg

    I’ve found one for McCains problem:
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2008/10/demstatespread.png

    Although the rest of the article might help describing it:
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/10/07/the-jaundiced-view-intrade-polling-confluence/

    Where is Jaundiced View BTW? Haven’t seen him anywhere for yonks.

  70. 770
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    Well Ferny, things could be worse…just look at Iceland (that’s if you can still find it! In an equivalent to global warming, the economic meltdown has all but melted them away):

    Iceland is paying the price for an economic boom of recent years that saw its newly affluent companies go on an acquisition spree across Europe and its banking sector grow to dwarf the rest of the economy. Bank assets are nine times annual gross domestic product of euro 14 billion ($25 billion).

    Investors are now punishing the whole country for the banking sector’s heavy exposure to the global credit squeeze – its currency has gone through the floor, imports have fallen and inflation is soaring.

    SMH

    …and now are facing national bankruptcy.

  71. 771
    ferny says:

    The numbers at the moment for Obama are in record-breaking territory. My political hero, FDR’s 1933 Democrat win record is seriously under threat.

    The markets are in freefall and the people are panicked. To counter this threat McCain will start seriously addressing the issues of concern to the electorate, thus re-establishing his credibility and restoring confidence in his ability to govern with wisdom and compassion.

    NAH! Let’s just chuck mud instead – it’s easier. So while Grandpa and Minnie indulge in shadow mud wrestling, the markets take yet another dive and the people’s confidence plummets. McCain’s answer? More mud! Even if it’s old mud – Ayers, Rezko & Wright. Some’s gotta stick, right??

    Yep John – but it’s stickin’ to you!

    So while The Kid rides the market hurricane to a record win, the same ill-winds are blowing the GOP mud back onto their candidate. Trouble for Johnny is that he’s also carrying 8 years worth of Bush mud. So now, whenever he speaks, all you can see is a mountain of crap. And every time he chucks another dirt ball, the mountain gets bigger and he gets buried some more.

    Keep throwin’ em’ Sarah. Keep throwin’ em. WINK.

  72. 772
    Diogenes says:

    Good morning team

    We seem to be winning don’t we? It’s quite fun at PB as you have noted. There’s an awful lot of sour grapes and dummy-spitting going on. They’re just realising that the Obamabots have been right all along and that we’re going to win. The word “Schadenfreude” comes to mind. And yes, there will be blood!

  73. 773
    HusseinWorm says:

    Gee, $850bn doesn’t buy much of a bailout these days. Chuck another couple trillion in, that oughta do it.

  74. 774
    asanque says:

    756 – Chris B

    The right wing fundamentalist nutbag days are numbered.

    Everything is against them.

    Dubya will be remembered as one of the worst US presidents ever (if not the worst) who has led them down the path of disaster in foreign and economic matters.

    It has come to the stage that the republican brand is so sullied, McCain has to run as a ‘maverick’.

    Demographically, the right wingers are stuffed. Their brand is aimed at older conservatives, fundamentalists, and ignorant gun toting rednecks.

    They are becoming increasingly less significant with more education and science, less religion and losing their economic credentials.

    More of the right wing voter base is dying off too, and the young educated vote is predominantly left-wing.

    One only has to look at the current Australian Liberal party which is headed well down the track of obscurity thanks to the right wing corruption and incompetence of Howard. They will need to retrack way back to the centre to try and regain some relevance.

    Picking Sarah Palin, another rabid right wing fundamentalist nutbag is just the Republicans going down the ‘Bridge to Nowhere’.

    Out of touch and soon obsolete.

    Good riddance.

  75. 775
    Chris B says:

    I wonder if that will force Iceland into the European Union and the Euro? They have been reluctant till now. Maybe even the UK will be forced into the Euro. :twisted:

  76. 776
    David Gould says:

    What are going to be the implications for Obama in office? It is going to be a very tough time.

  77. 777
    Chris B says:

    773 asanque Dubbya is equal first as the worst president ever on 22%. Just the time to run national TV advertisements with McCain giving him a hug. :lol:

  78. 778
    ferny says:

    Re my 771 – FDR’s record win was in 1932 – oops

  79. 779
    Chris B says:

    775 David Gould The debt is double what it was in the great depression, only unlike then you just have to cancel a few war planes and a couple of warships.

  80. 780
    ferny says:

    Yep DG – it’s not a good time to be President. Obama will have no money and a huge mess to clean up. It will take all of his skill and intelligence – and more.

    I’m sure he’ll be channeling FDR – who showed in similar, yet even worse, circumstances – YES.WE.CAN

  81. 781
    David Gould says:

    Apparantly, Europe could be in a worse position than the US. Spain is apparantly completely screwed and they may drag down France and Italy with them, which would tip Europe into something approaching a depression.

  82. 782
    Chris B says:

    F22 Raptor price tag $200 million.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F-22_Raptor

  83. 783
    Chris B says:

    780 David Gould The implications of that would be huge. It would force countries into the European Union and the Euro that have been reluctant. Ireland might even change it’s mind on the treaty it rejected with very little persuasion. Countries that are out of the Union would be vulnerable such as Norway Iceland and Switzerland (huge in the banking sector). Countries that aren’t in the Euro will be forced in UK, Sweden and Denmark, who ever thought the George would help defeat the forces of conservatism throughout the world!

  84. 784
    Chris B says:

    This would be the perfect opportunity for Gordon Brown to use the Euro to split the Conservative Party! By showing the public that staying out of the Euro is dangerous for the economy.

  85. 785

    Anyone up for a thread header to lead us into Tuesday’ debate?
    ——————————————-
    AUD dropped to 70 cents but has rebounded with resolve to flicker proudly around 72 cents moments ago.

  86. 786
    David Gould says:

    If countries in the EU are in just as bad a position as countries outside it, I do not see the argument for a country outside to join it. In other words, if being in the EU has not protected Spain, why would Iceland want to join?

  87. 787
    David Gould says:

    Note: I am a big fan of the EU. It is going to be a superpower and a force for reducing world suffering once it truly gets its act together – roughly 30 years.

  88. 788
    ferny says:

    I doubt it will take 30 years DG. With the US hegemony on the decline I have a feeling the EU will increasingly fill the gap. The next decade will see the rise of the EU as a world power.

  89. 789
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    And our market is back up to just 1% down.

    Can you feel the de-coupling?

    Mind you, people are going to wake up when the banks try and hold back as much as the Reserve gives ‘em! Funny to watch the Ruddsters trying to stop the playground Turnbully picking on the Big Four, isn’t it? The party of the workers giving the party of free enterprise one in the eye over bank profits.

    Gotta laugh really! LOL

  90. 790
    David Gould says:

    ferny,

    Europe is already a superpower. The next decade will see it rise. But it will not peak for 30 years. And then comes China and India.

  91. 791
    ferny says:

    The Turnbully has got the politics right on this one Kirri – and it will become a bigger stouch over the next couple of days when the banks keep the rate drop in their greedy little pockets – and hide behind a Labor PM when doing so.

    It’s a topsy-turvey ol’ world ‘aint it!

  92. 792
    ferny says:

    Ah DG – now I understand your thinking. I’m not sure I’d call the EU a superpower just yet. They still have many internal issues to deal with and, politically, don’t often act like a nation – albeit a multicultural one. There are still many internal divisions that need sorting – which I expect the next decade to bring.

  93. 793
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    790
    ferny

    Sure is that, ferny!

    But I don’t think Turnbully has it all his way on this, especially if you look at LIBOR’s historic high. Let’s not forget, our banks MUST borrow on international markets at extremely high rates if you’d like to see our mortgage industry not freeze up.

    But essentially it’s a commercial decision, and just like the government does not comment on the RBA’s rate decisions, it really has no authority over this either. If you don’t like your mortgage rate, find a cheaper provider is the real answer. (Yeah, where?)

    It’s a silly political game, and if Turnbully thinks he’s hit the populist bulls-eye with this one, he may be in for a rude shock when the bankers turn on him and start giving him the facts of life.(Not that he doesn’t know them, but it’s like the petrol excise, he was against it long before he was for it! LOL)

  94. 794
    Chris B says:

    786 David Gould Couldn’t agree more. Except on the time period.
    If your interested in reading more try these.
    One first article is on Iceland and the EU (promise I hadn’t read it).
    I haven’t looked at it ages, to busy on US politics.

    http://euobserver.com

    http://www.eubusiness.com

    http://www.eupolitix.com

    All good web sites.

  95. 795

    “It’s a topsy-turvey ol’ world ‘aint it!”

    No arguments on that one here:)

    http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/60841

    There’s a man on the television talkin’ down to me
    About the global economy
    He’s tellin’ us all that it’s the only way to go
    And he’s an expert and he should know…..

    Yes all around the world things are getting more unpleasant
    But at least I’m not a third world peasant
    Debt hangin’ round my neck from the cradle to the grave
    Livin’ and dyin’ a World Bank Slave……

    ~from Eric Bogle’s “Global Economy”, 2002.
    Cf. complete lyrics on EB’s website.
    http://ericbogle.net/index.htm

  96. 796
    Chris B says:

    David I’ve missed it, but why is Spain in trouble?

  97. 797

    Diogenes out at 772.
    Great to see you, concur wholeheartedly with your comments :mrgreen:

  98. 798

    Far too much reign on the plain, Chris.

  99. 799
    ferny says:

    Yep Ecky – Red is blue and the White House black;
    Keynes is in; socialism trumps capitalism so long as it’s called a bailout (not of the punters mind you – but of the Big End of Town – and there’s the difference from The New Deal) – and Rudd is speaking up for the banks while Turnbull is the voice of working families.

    My head hurts.

    Maybe I should write the next Header.

  100. 800
    David Gould says:

    Spain was already in serious trouble before all this. The housing market there has completely collapsed. They have been trying to prop up some institutions since July/August, and that was before all this hit. They are stuffed without some major help.