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The McCain team is feverishly attempting CPR on the lifeless thing that is their campaign. Will the third and last debate provide the super-defibrillator they need?

The possibilities for excitement on stage today all hinge on McCain. To what do you ‘throw the switch’ in these circumstances, in which you are 8-10 points down nationally with 3 weeks to go? Vaudeville won’t help. He’s already tried that with Sarah the ventriloquists’ dummy. Perhaps you say, “We’ve got nothing to lose, let’s go for the goolies.”  If Rove and his ilk are now running things, that is probably what McCain will attempt. Even winning the talking points in the debate is not sufficient for him.

Of course, this debate could be as dull as the “Town Hall” dirge-fest if Obama gets to run it his way. He ‘won’ the last debate by simply appearing cool. It didn’t matter a jot what he said, providing it wasn’t ‘courageous’ or even stimulating. It was all about Presidential poise. Due to that success and the Dems lead in the polls, Obama is highly unlikely to deviate from the minimalist approach now.

The danger for Obama is if McCain manages to wreck the debate with accusations, taunts and dirt, and succeeds in getting Obama down in the gutter with him. The aim would be to diminish the Presidential aura that Obama now has, and that McCain certainly does not. But this is also dangerous for McCain. If the tactic fails, and Obama stays above the fray, McCain will appear to be nothing other than the stumbling, flailing old dope he is.

McCain has already said he will be raising the Ayers ‘connection’ in the debate – ho hum – but that may only be an indicator of a full-on effort to unbalance Obama and prevent him from staying ‘in charge’ during the event.

Unless something radical is done now, the game will just slip away for McCain. The issue is whether he graciously accepts the impending crushing loss, or uses a last opportunity to tip over the card table which could, in the Rovians grotty little worldview, just possibly even things up again. One thing is certain: McCain shaking hands with a war veteran in the audience and saying ‘My friends’ 50 times won’t do the job.

My prediction is of a 70% chance of fireworks from McCain, and if so, a 95% chance of Barry holding the high ground.

626 Responses to “Another Dull Debate or Blue Touch Paper, Lit?”

  1. 501
  2. 502
    KatieLou says:

    Via Crooks and Liars, an eye opening article about Afghanistan.

    http://crooksandliars.com/cernig/nir-rosen-how-we-lost-war-we-won

    Simply put, it is too late for Bush’s “quiet surge” — or even for Barack Obama’s plan for a more robust reinforcement — to work in Afghanistan. More soldiers on the ground will only lead to more contact with the enemy, and more air support for troops will only lead to more civilian casualties that will alienate even more Afghans. Sooner or later, the American government will be forced to the negotiating table, just as the Soviets were before them.

  3. 503
    KatieLou says:

    No – I didn’t buy the inflatable one. This one has moveable joints. I was tempted by the inflatable one, that comes in 2 sizes – one humungous and the other about 15 cm. The thing I like about the plastic moveable one, is that you can make him look all commanding-like.

    I’ve also got a set of Obama playing cards, though I bought that earlier in the year. One of those cards is John Howard. Ew.

  4. 504
    KatieLou says:

    Apologies if someone has already commented on this. This is also via Crooks and Liars. There are reports that the all the hoo-hah about Acorn is a beat up, and the Obama campaign has complained to the Attorney General.
    http://crooksandliars.com/logan-murphy/breaking-obama-campaign-calls-investi

  5. 505

    I’ll bet Little Johnny’s not the ace of spades!

    So a canvasser goes to a woman’s door in Washington, Pennsylvania. Knocks. Woman answers. Knocker asks who she’s planning to vote for. She isn’t sure, has to ask her husband who she’s voting for. Husband is off in another room watching some game. Canvasser hears him yell back, “We’re votin’ for the n***er!”

    Woman turns back to canvasser, and says brightly and matter of factly: “We’re voting for the n***er.”

    Eeny-meeny-myny-mo!
    :mrgreen:

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-western-pennsylvania.html

  6. 506
    KatieLou says:

    Johnny is the 4 of clubs. Pretty suitable.

    In a prescient move, McCain is the 7 of clubs, and the caption is “He’s a real Maverick – Vote Obama”. I bought these in June of this year.

  7. 507
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    505
    Enemy Combatant

    hahaha!!!! That would be the Irish n!gger then, would it? LOL

  8. 508
    jen says:

    Cheers Y’all – been scrolling back. Welcome home Katie-Lou and Shoot’nDang to rest a ya.
    Looks like the Narrowing is happening , all thanks to the Murdoch -owned press- ‘cos my Waters tell me that the ordinary ol’ voter is either gonna stay home or vote for Obi, no matter what the papers tell him to do.
    It’s the credit card that’ll decide.

  9. 509
    jen says:

    Oh FFS- how desperate are the media to have a story?
    I’ve been doing the rounds and the statements like “2 weeks to go -it’s not over yet”, and other such crap…. :sad”

  10. 510
    jen says:

    I meant :sad:

  11. 511
    Progressive says:

    Daily Kos tracking poll
    OBAMA 50
    MCCAIN 43

    Don’t tell me people are buying this “Joe The Plumber” shit?
    I was sad too watching an ABC TV News story on the race in Florida tonight. Some old guy being interviewed said he wouldn’t vote for Obama, because “he’s a Muslim”! That’s proof the Republican politics of smear and misrepresentation still works, particularly when they are assisted by the likes of Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity.

  12. 512
    Progressive says:

    Jen: the MSM want a close election, it’d be too boring to talk about a certain Obama victory, so they’ll magnify any movement to McCain, ever so miniscule! The old guy and Palin will get a leg up in the next 2 weeks, you can count on it!

  13. 513
    jen says:

    Exactly Progressive-
    if McCain manages to clean his teeth it will be headline news-
    “McCain Understands Dental Health”…
    If he reads a newspaper …”McCain ‘s Literacy plan Improves the Nation”
    If he tries to get within 20 feet of Cindy ..
    “McCain’s Abstinence policy saves a Nation (not to mention Cindy..)

    you get the drift.

  14. 514

    Saturday Night Live discusses the Bradley Effect.

  15. 515

    I just noticed a typo in the links on the right side of the page, Pollster.com is spelt ‘polster.com’.

  16. 516

    In the FL-16 House race, Democrat Tim Mahoney has suffered a 51-point swing against him in one week, while his personal favorable rating has dropped to 28-53.

    Good work Mahoney, something like that takes some serious effect, especially when the DCCC has already spent $91,081 on your race.

  17. 517
    paddy says:

    Morning all.
    513
    jen
    Couldn’t agree more.
    It’s obvious that McCain is BACK!!
    The narrowing is on and it’s only a matter of time, till All those foolish Merkins realize their mistake and let the pollsters know they’ve seen the light. :)

    Meanwhile…. That Obama fellow just happened to stumble into a crowd of people enjoying a free concert and sausages in some park in St Louis. He’s even claiming they came to see HIM!
    Wasn’t really much of a show though…….Only 100,000 came. :mrgreen:
    Some great pics at Kos
    http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/18/12630/064/131/634471

  18. 518
    paddy says:

    Meanwhile…..Back on the campaign trail with REAL Americans.
    Here’s a heartwarming account of first dude Todd Palin’s adventures on the stump for wonder woman.
    http://minnesotaindependent.com/13473/todd-palin-and-me-day-one-on-the-campaign-trail-with-the-first-dude

  19. 519
    jen says:

    Top O’ the mornin’ to ya Paddy –
    It’s so sad to see Obama behaving like a cheap celebrity. :mrgreen:

  20. 520
    jen says:

    And he clearly has no idea what he is talking about. In the dailyKos excerpts of his speech he has the audacity :wink: to suggest that giving tax cuts to the rich does not trickle down to the poor, and so the tax cuts should go directly to the workers. Imagine!

  21. 521
    paddy says:

    520
    jen

    he has the audacity to suggest that giving tax cuts to the rich does not trickle down to the poor.

    Bloody outrageous!! :)

    Plus there’s lots of fun on the blogosphere this morning, in reaction to Michele Bachman doing her truly magnificent impression of Eva Braun on Hardball.
    LOL
    The comments over on Wonkette make the rude pundit sound tame. :)

  22. 522
    jen says:

    Just checked out Wonkette- makes us lot look positively pure!

  23. 523
    paddy says:

    Michele Bachmann is just the gift that keeps on giving. :mrgreen:

    Following Rep. Michele Bachmann’s appearance with Chris Matthews yesterday, America is learning what many in Minnesota already knew, which is that putting Bachmann in front of a live microphone is like handing an excitable 15-year-old a bottle of gin and a loaded gun. The only question is when something unspeakable is going to happen.

    http://minnesotaindependent.com/13678/michele-bachmanns-hardball-blowup-minnesotans-knew-it-was-only-a-matter-of-time

  24. 524
    jen says:

    She’s almost better than Sarah! Can’t wait to see what Saturday Night Live do to her.

  25. 525
    jen says:

    Oh PLease God! – let them do one of Sarah and Michelle together-
    my life would be complete. :twisted:

  26. 526
    paddy says:

    Now then jen, that would be cruel and unusual punishment and I think it’s banned by the Geneva convention.

    Meanwhile the MSM can’t really ignore a crowd of 100,000.
    That leftist rag, the NYT is positively gloating. :)

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/19/us/politics/19campaign.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

  27. 527
    paddy says:

    Frank Rich has a nice piece in the NYT where he gives McCain a well deserved spray.

    As the G.O.P.’s long night of the long knives begins, myths are already setting in among the right’s storm troops and the punditocracy alike as to what went wrong. And chief among them are the twin curses of Bush and the “headwinds” of the economy. No Republican can win if the party’s incumbent president is less popular than dirt, we keep being told, or if a looming Great Depression 2 is Issue No. 1.

    This is an excuse, not an explanation. It absolves McCain of much of the blame and denies Obama much of the credit for their campaigns. It arouses pity for McCain when he deserves none. It rewrites history.

    Bush’s impact on the next Republican presidential candidate did not have to be so devastating. McCain isn’t, as he and his defenders keep protesting, a passive martyr to a catastrophic administration. He could have made separating himself from Bush the brave, central and even conservative focus of his campaign. Far from doing that, he embraced the Bush ethos — if not the incredible shrinking man himself — more tightly than ever. The candidate who believes in “country first” decided to put himself first and sell out his principles. That ignoble decision is what accounts for both the McCain campaign’s failures and its sleaze. It’s a decision McCain made on his own and for which he has yet to assume responsibility.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/19/opinion/19rich.html

  28. 528
    Spam Box says:

    527 – The second paragraph from that quote sums up a lot of the excuses we’ve been hearing around the blogs here in Oz.

  29. 529
    Chris B says:

    485 Ferny Grover Thanks Ferny You answered a question I had been pondering. Who is Christopher Buckley? Someone found my site using the search term Christopher Buckley, I had no idea. I had a picture of Nathan Buckley on my site. They ended up with the wrong person.

  30. 530
    Spam Box says:

    omg – listening to that Sarah woman actually hurts my ears

  31. 531
    jen says:

    POssum posted this link.
    David G – I hope this calms your nerves a little.
    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/obama-dominating-among-early-voters-in.html

  32. 532
    paddy says:

    I’ve always been a fan of Bill Maher, so it’s great to see him doing his shtick and actually conducting a sensible discussion with his guests.
    Bernie Sanders makes some fairly powerful points as well.

    His latest show in 4 segments here.
    http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/18/23939/115/366/634260

  33. 533
    jen says:

    Great article paddy.
    And whatever happened to the bastards that played Bush for the Dumbfck that he is??
    Where is Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz et al.? I can’t wait for the reprisals. These guys are war criminals by any definition (well – by mine anyway) and they deserve to rot for what they’ve done.

    Morning Chris- back from loitering at the station I see :wink:

  34. 534
    Chris B says:

    526 paddy The is the biggest Tsunami ever seen, is on its way!

  35. 535
    Chris B says:

    531 jen I like this bit

    Keep in mind that there are veteran pollsters like Ann Selzer who think that most of her colleagues are vastly understating the degree to which youth and minority turnout is liable to improve in this election; Selzer’s polls have been 5-6 points more favorable to Obama than the averages in the states that she’s surveyed. So while these early voting numbers could turn out to be something of a curiosity, they could alternatively represent a canary in the coal mine for a coming Democratic turnout wave.

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/obama-dominating-among-early-voters-in.html

  36. 536
    Chris B says:

    But the Ann Selzer only polls two electorates. That means she can’t be right. :twisted:

  37. 537
    Chris B says:

    533 jen I actually went past in my car. Drunks everywhere. Males and females. Disgraceful. Just wait till the fundies take over to bring some morality back to this place. :twisted:

  38. 538
    Chris B says:

    I would never do a thing like that!

  39. 539
    Chris B says:

    Oh! My head hurts. Don’t talk so LOUD! :twisted:

  40. 540
    jen says:

    are you having an ‘episode’ CB?

  41. 541
  42. 542
    Chris B says:

    Whoah! Salt Lake Tribune endorses Barack Obama! Salt Lake City has twice as many signs on lawns at three times the costs of McCains. What is this madness? ITS THE REDDEST STATE IN THE USA!

  43. 543

    541

    From the endorsement page:

    Napa Valley Register (CA): McCain for President
    “McCain has the experience and the ability to lead this country in a time of enormous challenges and uncertainty, and his policy proposals in several areas are superior to those of his dynamic rival, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill.”

    Very subtle. :roll:

  44. 544
    paddy says:

    Whew! Just when I thought those awful Democrats might steal the election……… Fox news and the REAL Americans have arrived with the cavalry to save the day.
    http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2108988/posts
    Don’t forget to check out the comments on this link.
    [Warning!]
    Make sure you’ve put down that cup of tea/coffee first :)

  45. 545
    Chris B says:

    WOW! THIS IS A SURPRISE! DID ANYBODY ELSE KNOW THIS? THE POLLS ARE INACCURATE. SURPRISE! SURPRISE!

    Study of Cell-Only Households

    Close to a third of all 18-24 year olds do not have a landline. Pollsters are seriously beginning to be concerned that their presidential preference (Obama by a landslide) is being undercounted. Mark Blumental wrote a column in the National Journal looking at this issue and concluded that Obama’s strength is probably being underestimated by 2-3% as a result of this effect.

    More polls more good news.
    http://www.electoral-vote.com

  46. 546
    Chris B says:

    Its starting to look like my bets are very safe. 400+ in the house and 60+ in the senate. Also my suggestion that 64 in the senate is a good chance.

  47. 547
    paddy says:

    543
    GWV
    I can only get a 404 page not found for the Napa Valley Register.
    Perhaps the chardonnay swilling socialist elites. ie The local winemakers have hacked the site. :mrgreen:

  48. 548
    Chris B says:

    It also bring Texas just that little bit closer.

  49. 549
    Chris B says:

    Has Senator Conroy resigned yet? Wait till I start my tirade on the radio!

  50. 550
    Chris B says:

    We need a minister in charge of telecommunications that actually understands how the Internet works. This man obviously has NO IDEA.

  51. 551
    Chris B says:

    545 Chris B As well as the mobile phone youth vote. The will be inaccurate where Anne Selzer said they would be. That will make it around 5% at least.

  52. 552
    Chris B says:

    Typo They will be….

  53. 553
    Chris B says:

    The biggest thing that does not show up in the polls, is the stay at home and not vote people. I am sure that will be a big part of this election.

  54. 554
    Enemy Combatant says:

    Bonjour, g’day, ‘ullo ‘ullo and how the fukaya!

    Geez those photos of The Kid speaking and pressing the flesh(poor bastard must have a sore right hand) in St. Louis bring goosebumps to a bloke’s back and a lump to his throat. They send a plenty powerful message to wavering Indys and undecideds. No wonder the GOPper shills are undergoing spontaneous acts of public apoplexy.

    What do RWDBs, neoconservatives and Fox fanciers call their female psephologists?

    Polly Annas!!
    *boom-tish*
    :mrgreen:

    The title character is Pollyanna Whittier, a young orphan who goes to live in Beldingsville, Vermont, with her wealthy but stern Aunt Polly. Pollyanna’s philosophy of life centers on what she calls “The Glad Game”, an optimistic attitude she learned from her father. The game consists of finding something to be glad about in every situation.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollyanna

    Meanwhile in St. Louis……..Willie Loman arrives home after work:
    http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=csw2yBYYFdA&feature=related

  55. 555
    Chris B says:

    Catrina. If we get it right with the 400+ and 60+ senate seats, will that make us the only blog in the world to do this? Will CNN the ABC BBC MSNBC et al want to interview us to find out how we did it? You’d better put on your best dress for that.

  56. 556
    Chris B says:

    I’ll let you handle the interviews.

  57. 557
    Chris B says:

    EC Thanks for Flowers on the Wall. Your tastes are so like mine its SCARY!

  58. 558

    The Governorships

    The Democrats currently hold 28 to the Republicans 22. There are three competitive races:

    Missouri (Rep): Jay Nixon will win the Governorship from the Republicans and their candidate Kenny Holshof by around 16-20 points.

    North Carolina (Dem): This race is neck and neck with Democratic candidate Beverly Perdue and Republican Pat McCrory fighting it out.

    Washington (Dem): Gov. Christine Gregoire (Dem) is in a very tight contest to retain the Governor’s Mansion with the latest poll showing a lead over Republican Dino Rossi of only 1 point.

  59. 559
    jaundiced view says:

    This is a little sobering for any of we Obama supporters prone to hubris (I know I have been). From the Financial Times”:

    “The RealClear Politics website’s average of polls, which gives Mr Obama a lead of 6.8 per cent over Mr McCain, offers a better guide to the situation. It compares to John Kerry’s lead just a few weeks before he lost the 2004 election to Mr Bush. It is also slightly lower than Mr Obama’s lead over Hillary Clinton shortly before she bested him – and the media – in the New Hampshire primary at the start of the year.”

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1a46682a-9c73-11dd-a42e-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1

    And since the article was written, the RCP average is now down to a 6.5% Obi national lead. But I’m not alarmed – just alert.

    EC – Did you see the news that Bill Leak fell from a balcony last night and is in intensive care with a serious head injury? Hope like hell he’s going to be OK.

  60. 560
    Don Wigan says:

    “We need a minister in charge of telecommunications that actually understands how the Internet works. This man obviously has NO IDEA.”

    Not only that Chris. I believe he was one of those behind the deal that got FF Fielding into the Senate. He’s about due for some payback.

    As for Bachman … As Dr Johnson said a few centuries back,

    “Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel.”l

  61. 561
    paddy says:

    554
    Speaking of goosebumps Ecky, while I’m a committed atheist,
    watching the clip linked below, definitely caused a lump in the throat.

    All those proud black Americans, involved in a grassroots movement of staggering dimensions, heading off from church by the busload to vote early in Ohio.
    When you consider that this sort of organization is being replicated across the country….. The Republicans are right to be VERY afraid.

    http://ohiodailyblog.com/content/video-quotvote-early-vote-bigquot-cleveland

  62. 562
    paddy says:

    559
    That’s bloody terrible news about Bill Leak JV.
    The man’s a national treasure.
    I really hope he gets through it ok.

  63. 563
    HarryH says:

    Ok….Final prediction time has come for me. I’ve been thinking 364 for a while and have now solidified so…..

    Obama: 364 EV’s
    McCain: 174 EV’s

    Dem gains in order of magnitude: Iowa,Virginia,NewMexico,Colorado,Nevada,Florida,North Carolina,Missouri and Ohio.

    Pop vote:
    Obama 51.5
    McCain 46

    Senate:
    Dem 59
    Rep 39
    Ind 2

    Catrina , EC or whoever,

    How about a seperate thread for a final prediction from everyone here. 1 post only per person containing final prediction. Prediction can be made up until election night but extra kudos for the earlier you lodge.

    Bit of fun.

  64. 564
    Chris B says:

    561 paddy Unreal! They will be 100% for Obama! No voter intimidation there!
    NB Not any complaints about voting problems. The earlier you vote the less problems.

  65. 565
    Enemy Combatant says:

    That is terrible news about Bill Leake, jv. He’s an exemplary human being as well as one Oz’s best satirists and political cartoonists. Geez I hope he pulls through with his inimitable wit intact. I’ll never forget his cartoon where he had El Rodente protruding half-torso from The Imbecile’s butt. Apparently the little man went ballistic when he saw it and complained bitterly to The Australian’s Editors. The little scumbag wouldn’t have bothered if Bill’s toon hadn’t skewered Johnny’s pompous, vainglorious, mean-spirited soul. Control freaks of whatever ilk can’t handle being mocked, especially when it hits the spot.

    Carn Bill, we’re all pullin’ for you, mate!

  66. 566
    paddy says:

    Y’all sing along now…..President Barak Obama.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v8Bzp0Fxq28

  67. 567
    Enemy Combatant says:

    Sounds good to me, Harry. Can access the engine room to edit, despaminate and remove comments from “moderation” but I can’t do the fancy stuff yet, such as implement your suggestion. Reckon Cat will give it her imprimatur, but one couldn’t or wouldn’t dare pre-empt Boss Blog on this or anything else as a matter of fact!
    :)

  68. 568
    Diogenes says:

    jv

    That article is complete and utter BS and you should be ashamed for linking it. Bush was head of Kerry by miles from the middle of August.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html

  69. 569
  70. 570
    Chris B says:

    On the front of Votemaster there is a link to the same time in 2004.

    http://www.electoral-vote.com

  71. 571
    Chris B says:

    What the FCUK two different stories!

  72. 572
    paddy says:

    Barack Obama has surged into the lead in the superficial parts of the United States. For example, he is solidly ahead along the Pacific coast which is comprised of newer “fancy” states. Obama is also ahead in the phony Great Lakes states and the equally inauthentic states of the Northeast. Not surprisingly, Obama is popular in the D.C. area and in much of Virginia.

    http://openleft.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=D16B8A5A72E9D885E1227E05B37C42D3?diaryId=9207

    Phew!! Just as well Macca and Moose are winning in the important states like………….Alaska. :)

  73. 573
    HarryH says:

    The comparisons to 2004 are absolutely ridiculous and irrelevant to this election. EVERYTHING is different now to 2004.

  74. 574
    Chris B says:

    Bush sets financial summit, more to come.
    What is the point of Bush doing this after the election?

    http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE49E2E720081019

  75. 575
    Gippslander says:

    ChrisB In all my days as aN ALP member, I was in Labor Unity, and most of the time in SL branches. I had the displeasure of meeting Steve Conroy when he was a young man on the make, and formed a low opinion of his intellectual calibre.
    Many years later I had the unexpected (for me) pleasure of meeting Bill Hartley just before he died . We discussed S Conroy, and Bill said, äh, yes, Stephen always has an opinion & it’s usually that of the last person he spoke to”.
    Go for it Chris! Conroy is the type who gives arrant stupidity a bad name.

  76. 576
    Chris B says:

    Dueling Plumbers at 50 paces. :twisted:

    In Ohio, battle of the plumbers (actual and otherwise) breaks out.

    As if further evidence was needed of the phenomenon that is “Joe the Plumber” (however brief it may be), there comes this e-mail advisory:
    Real Toledo Area Plumbers to Hold Press Conference to Express Their Grave Concerns with Senator (John) McCain’s Economic Policies.

    http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/10/battle-of-the-p.html

  77. 577
    Enemy Combatant says:

    paddy at 561:

    All those proud black Americans, involved in a grassroots movement of staggering dimensions, heading off from church by the busload to vote early in Ohio.

    paddy, your linked clip was most moving. By way of reply perhaps it’s best if Uncle Lou does the talkin’ fo’ me. Yessah!

    http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=mzmZ5l_KmZY
    ——————–
    Oh, goody, and exchange of perceptions between Dio and thread’s author. Pardon me while I stand in the nearest neutral corner drooling with anticipation.
    :evil:

  78. 578
    Chris B says:

    Polls give Obama a clear lead.

    Polls and pollsters pointed towards a near-unassailable lead for Barack Obama yesterday, just 19 days ahead of election day on November 4.

    Snap surveys taken after the last of three televised debates with John McCain on Wednesday night gave the Democrat the edge in the encounter by margins of up to 30 percentage points.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/780514ce-9be3-11dd-ae76-000077b07658.html

  79. 579

    568-571

    The popular vote numbers in RCP and the state situation in electoral.com aren’t inconsistent. The polls in 2004 in Iowa and Florida were tied and were won by Bush by small margins, while the Nevada polls average had Kerry up by only 1, and again Bush just won the state. Therefore Bush being ahead in the national vote on October 18 2004 while ‘missing’ 39 of his final 286 electoral votes is completely reasonable.

  80. 580
    Chris B says:

    Oooo. This is going to swing the election. We’re in lots of trouble now.

    McCain likens Obama to European socialists.

    In an outbreak of class warfare, Republican John McCain Saturday likened Democrat Barack Obama to European socialists who advocate redistributing wealth as he desperately tried to reverse his declining poll numbers.

    With just over two weeks remaining to Election Day, the campaign heated up as Obama countered by accusing his rival of being “out of touch” with the struggles of middle-class Americans who need “a break.”

    http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2008/10/19/uselection08/20081019084051&sec=uselection08

  81. 581
  82. 582
    dirkprovin says:

    Chris made earlier reference to the Salt Lake Times endorsing Obama. Remarkable indeed from the reddest state in the Union. The following piece from that editorial quite eloquently sums up the McCain campaign.

    “More than any single factor, McCain’s bad judgement in choosing the inarticulate, insular and ethically challenged Palin disqualifies him for the Presidency.”

  83. 583
    HarryH says:

    In 2004 the economy was booming. Now it is deader than a dead duck.
    In 2004 National Security was the No1 issue and Republicans dominated on that issue.
    In 2008 the Economy is massively the No1 issue and the Dems dominate on this issue.
    In 2004 the Media was firmly behing the Republicans.
    In 2008 the Media are firmly behind the Democrats.

    Barack’s favorable rating according to the Conservative RCP is +21.6 compared to McCain +8.0.

    When you have people replying to canvassers that “we are voting for the ni**er” you know the REAL issues are dominating.

    According to the above mentioned electoral-vote:

    In 2004 on this day,2 weeks before the election, the Dems only had 188 EV’s locked up.
    In 2008 on this day they have 286 EV’s locked up.

    Kerry might have been artificially ahead in the Topline number but internally he was in a very weak position.

    Obama is in an overwhelmingly strong position this year.

  84. 584
    Chris B says:

    Hey it worked! That’s a lot better than that long URL. If anyone wants to use that news link. Click on it then save it in your own favourites. I’ll post it regularly for a reminder.

  85. 585
    paddy says:

    577
    Uncle Lou does the talkin :)

  86. 586
    Chris B says:

    582 dirkprovin Would Utah swing the other way because of Palin?
    I have think read somewhere that she is anti Mormon, or her religion is. Something like that.

  87. 587
    Chris B says:

    Over the next 2 and a bit weeks there is going to be a massive amount of endorsements for Obama. Particularly from the Music and Acting fraternity.

  88. 588
    Enemy Combatant says:

    Yup-Yup at least twigs that she’s out of her league with this lot. Watch her eyes and facial expression closely.
    First the fun:
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/18/sarah-palin-on-snl-with-t_n_135887.html

    Next, the awful truth.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/18/the-palin-plunge-voters-s_n_135857.html

  89. 589
    paddy says:

    575
    Gippslander Never having met the “estimable Conroy”.
    I had no prior opinion as to whether he was actually up to the job.

    However, on the few times he opened his mouth since Nov 07, I had a sinking feeling that Kevin had decided to shaft him using the “Peter principle”.

    A pity really, as telecommunications is way too important to be dragged into the sludge of factional party politics.
    The country needs top notch political mind in that ministry to drag it into the 21st century.
    Kneecapping Telstra is not for lightweights like Conroy.
    Hopefully, he’ll be a casualty of Kev’s first reshuffle.

    This latest nonsense about actually implementing an Internet filter for all, is just plain embarrassing! :(

  90. 590
    HarryH says:

    Back in the leadup to our election in 07 i was continually warning on Pollbludger about the stupidity and hackiness of Stephen Conroy.

    To put it politely, he is a focking idiot.

  91. 591
    dirkprovin says:

    586 Chris,

    Nothing is impossible but extremely unlikely. A good pick-up in the Dem vote is plausible in Utah but this one ain’t likely to switch soon.

    Just got back from the last 6 weeks in the states (including time in some of the “battleground states”). Having studied & worked there, the whole total shitfight makes me truly thankful ….. that I’m NOT American and God forbid we ever adopt their social systems !!

  92. 592
    paddy says:

    588
    Oooh Ecky. That really WAS cruel.
    God just clubbed a baby seal to death on camera.

    Sarah Palin should have worn sunglasses. That unmistakable look of terror in her eyes, even made ME want to look away.

    P.S.
    The real Tina Fey is a scrumptious lady. :mrgreen:

  93. 593
    Wakefield says:

    572 and others. Its a bit rich Sarah Palin talking about how good it is to be in Pro-American states when she seems to have had a fair bit of sympathy for Alaska to secede. Sounds a bit like talk from the civil war.

  94. 594
    jen says:

    REading those endorsements my faith in America is restored: they have seen through Palin, and she is going to help the win for Obama turn into a decimation of the GOP.
    Bless her cotton socks.

  95. 595
    Chris B says:

    575 Gippslander Thanks for that. If I get no reaction from anyone, I will start on the radio stations next week.

  96. 596
    Chris B says:

    I like this bit.

    She quickly proved grievously under-equipped to step into the presidency should McCain, at 72 and with a history of health problems, die in office. More than any single factor, McCain’s bad judgment in choosing the inarticulate, insular and ethically challenged Palin disqualifies him for the presidency.” The Kansas City Star, in turn, described Palin as “unqualified.”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/18/the-palin-plunge-voters-s_n_135857.html

  97. 597
    Chris B says:

    589 paddy It will effect my e commerce business I am trying to build at the moment. My site will be unreachable!

  98. 598
    Enemy Combatant says:

    When a dog whistle becomes a racist clarion call!!

    Welcome to the Real Virginia, Mr. Macaca!

    http://thinkprogress.org/2008/10/18/real-virginia/

  99. 599
    Chris B says:

    598 Enemy Combatant I like it! She’s helped cook McCains goose! It’s probably burnt to cinders now.

  100. 600
    paddy says:

    597
    Now then Chris……I’m sure that nice Mr Conroy wouldn’t DREAM of hurting your e commerce business.
    He’s merely trying to save us all from evil [NSFW] links like this one I “innocently” stumbled over, while strolling around at Wonkette this morning. :)
    http://snarkfest.deviantart.com/art/Palin-McCain-No-Brainer-101038683