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Lessons in democracy …

Iran held presidential elections on the 12 June with four names on the ballot but only two that mattered: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (the incumbent), and Mir-Hossein Mousavi. With high turnout paralleled only by the growing anticipation for change – the official results were announced – a landslide win to Ahmadinejad. As the news broke tensions flared followed by broad public dissent, protests, accusations of fraud, and according to unverified reports the Grand Ayatollah Yousof Sanei has declared the elections unlawful and Mehdi Karroubi has stated that he does not recognise the election result. There are also suggestions that the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may be under threat. If there is something to learn here – it’s that even in a limited democracy, the people have a voice – one way or another.

For more on the emerging story:

Huffington Post : News : Iran Election
New York Times : World : Countries and Territories : Iran
Wikipedia: Iranian presidential election, 2009
Twitter : #iranelection


Images: TehranLive.org

714 replies on “Lessons in democracy …”

Sandford was the one who tried to stop Obama from spending his money in South Carolina. Nothing could be finer. Yes!

Yes, its not good in Iran, David. They should have changed their tactics to hit and run. Mind you, they still can.

Truffles ‘muscled’ Grech says the Oz, in the Tele there’s a report of both Truffles and Abetz meeting Grech BEFORE the senate hearing!

Truffles on toast, anyone? LOL

Daily Terror:

MALCOLM Turnbull had a meeting with Godwin Grech at which he was shown the now notorious fake email supposedly sent to the Treasury official by a senior Rudd adviser, The Daily Telegraph has been told.

The secret meeting in the lead-up to last week’s Senate committee hearing included Mr Turnbull, Mr Grech and deputy leader of the Opposition in the Senate Eric Abetz, according to a highly placed source.

…if this is confirmed, then the constant claims of Turnbull that he ‘did not have the email’, and did not put any influence on Grech is totally shot.

Truffles on toast, for sure! LOL

Oh yeah, no wonder Grech looked like he was being pushed over a cliff…Turnbull would have been impossible to say no to.

But the question remains: who wrote the fake email.

When does an embattled Republican suddenly become an embattled Democrat? When Fox News is covering him, of course.

The network known for its conservative leaning ran footage of Mark Sanford admitting to an extramarital affair on Wednesday with a Chyron identifying the South Carolina Republican — near tears — as a D, for Democrat.

more on the Huffington Post

506 Kirribilli Removals Isn’t it fun watching the conservative destroy themselves here the USA and Silivio in Italy. Scandals, scandals scandals.

CB, it’s more addictive than crack, this incredible story of self-exploding Truffle.

If Grech is charged (and it’s an ‘if’) then Mal is right in it, as is Abetz, as they will have to stand up in court. How would that be? LOL

It’s so breathtakingly juicy a possibility. Mal on the receiving end of a bully barrister, trying to talk his way out of this. (It’s becoming clearer by the day that both Mal and Abetz at least, are involved up to the armpits.)

KR,

I think it is pretty clear that Malcolm and Abetz honestly believed that the email was real. My bet is still that Grech forged it.

As to ‘hit and run’ in Iran, what do you mean by that, Chris? I cannot see a tactic that could bring down the Iranian government.

DG, that may well be the case, however they appear to have pressured Grech into saying he’d seen it in the senate hearing. Note that Grech didn’t say he had it, but that he ‘remembered’ (maybe) seeing it. He knew it was fake, but Turnbull has maintained that his attack on Rudd was on the basis of Grech’s testimony. This is now looks to be a lie.

Just who forged this email, and why, is intriguing is it not?

If Grech doesn’t own up to the forgery, then it’s authorship could well be the issue in a court case, because whoever wrote it has committed a crime. WHoever passed it on the press has committed a crime.

Mal’s corny bravura performance with Kerry O’Brien looked much like a man who knows he’s close to the edge.

I agree with KR – I think Malcolm is up to his neck in it. My feeling is that there has been collusion between Grech and Turnbull on the Ozcar allegations, and, possibly that the Liberals were dumb enough to have been involved in faking an email.

The main reason I think this way is that Turnbull is in no way backing away from Grech. He’s continuing with the line that Grech is competent and highly regarded, even though he is growing more and more tainted. I think if Grech had been alone in fabricating evidence, Malcolm would be distancing himself and the Liberals from Grech. Instead they’re going in to bat for him.

But could they really be that stupid?

The thing is, though, if I was an opposition leader and a public servant had told me that there existed a particular email that implicated the PM in a scandal, I would want that public servant to testify about it. As such, I would pressure him to. So I cannot see that Turnbull did anything wrong in doing that.

However, it certainly appears as though Turnbull has been lying about the notion of the email. The evidence is pretty clear: he told Dr Charlton on Wednesday that he had documentary proof that Dr Charlton and Rudd were lying. This indicates that he must have at least *seen* the documentary proof. And this news report, if true, shows that he did indeed see it.

I do not think that Turnbull will end up in court over this. He is already bringing up the parliamentary privilege argument, and it is a very strong one. It is doubtful that any parliamentarian can be made to testify in a case like this.

Katielou,

Turnbull is talking about Grech as competent and highly regarded because he wants to make it clear why he believed the email was real. In other words, he is saying, ‘No reasonable person would have suspected this email of being a forgery, given the source.’

There is no way in hell Abetz would have read it out in a Senate committee if he knew that it was a fake. And there is no way that Turnbull would have risked his position knowing the email was faked.

And there certainly has been collusion between Turnbull and Grech over the OzCar affair – it looks as though Grech has been the Liberal source for years in all sorts of things. But it is difficult to see anything sinister in that.

Yeah, DG, but I’ve just got a feeling that Turnbull should really be backing away from Grech because of the strong taint around him, but he’s not. He’s continuing to say very supportive and complementary things about Grech. Something smells, big time.

I don’t think so. It seems clear that Grech’s evidence is tainted – it seems logical to me to be backing away from him. At the very least, I would expect Turnbull would not be waxing lyrical about Grech, as he’s continued to do over the past 2 evenings on the ABC. Though I agree that he should avoid open condemnation before future evidence comes to light.

Ahh bless you Princess Annabel. 😆

Spells, curses and a dollop of Goblin Grech
ANNABEL CRABB
June 25, 2009
“THIS isn’t a bad dream that will just go away. It is a nightmare, and it will never go away.”

These are the words with which the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, greeted his deadly enemy, Malcolm Turnbull, yesterday.

Is it just me, or is this week in politics turning into a bad version of a Harry Potter novel?

http://www.smh.com.au/national/spells-curses-and-a-dollop-of-goblin-grech-20090624-cwvt.html
I haven’t enjoyed Oz politics this much since the glory days of Gough.

Agree with you and Kirri, KatieLou – the whole thing reeks of trying to protect themselves.
As for your question
“But could they really be that stupid?”

ah, yep. Undoubtedly. :mrgreen:

Feast fit for a removalist, Kirri. Truffles on Toast and Asparagus Abetz washed down with a cheeky little Grech grenache.

Geez, it’d be wonderful if that viscious sectarian hatemonger and major league arsehole, Senator Grub Abetz (not to be confused with Grubber Betz, the reformed Stasi problem gambler) is soiled by prior association with the bodgie Utegate email …..as reported by the former tory toe rags at Sep Citizen Murdoch’s tabloid of Perpetual Terror. As far as wowser control freaks go, they don’t come any uglier of soul than Grub Abetz.

Yep, friendly fire mediated collateral damage could well be widespread due to Petit Mal’s rash “rush of blood” attack on Tin-Tin. Truffles coulda had The Rooster by the pope’s nose but like a hyper-caffeinated chicken sexer, overreached.

What a fuck wit!

An icy chill descends from The Snowy ahead of the winter recess.
Political pink mist pervades Majesty Betty Windsor’s Loyal Opposition Party Room. They can smell it, taste it and feel it settle upon their pampered pelts but in similar manner to the sightstruck in Saramago’s “Blindness”, they can not perceive it with comprehension……..yet.

He (Abetz)was Minister for Forestry from a reshuffle of the Howard ministry January 2006 until the defeat of the 2007 election. He commenced his portfolio by attacking the Australian Greens in general and Greens Senator Bob Brown in particular. He described the Greens as now representing the extreme left of Australian politics……

Abetz is a Christian and a member of the Christian Reformed
Churches of Australia. Throughout his political career he has been variously associated with conservative groups, including the Association of Christian Parent Controlled Schools, Salt Shakers, Focus on the Family, Lyons Forum, Endeavour Forum, Family Council of Victoria, Fatherhood Foundation, Australian Christian Lobby, Australian Family Association and Right to Life Australia.[6]

Abetz is the Shadow Minister for Innovation, Industry, Science and Research; and Deputy Leader of the Opposition in the Senate.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Abetz

Hi paddy – thanks for the great toon last night. Read it this morning and cacked myself. 😆
And this whole thng is just so hilarious . It’s the gift that just keeps giving 😆 😆

Jen,

They are obviously trying to protect themselves. I think that we disagree on what they are trying to protect themselves from, that’s all. 🙂

David

Did Abetz not mislead the Senate by saying in the hearing that he was told about the email by “someone – a journalist”?

It seems clear now that he was shown the email by Grech.

HarryH,

Possibly. However, if Abetz was told about the email by a journalist at some point, which is my bet, then he is in the clear. In other words, there are potentially easy ways out of that for Abetz.

In other words, imagine that he was shown the email by Grech. Then the email got to a journalist, who showed it to Abetz. Abetz has not lied about being shown the email by a journalist, has he?

Paddy @ 522 – Annabel Crabbe is my favourite political journalist – thanks for the link.

I note she comments about Turnbull’s “mythical offences against cats”. Maybe you have all heard this already, but I was recently told that there is a long running and well known rumour amongst political circles (and tragics) that after a younger Malcolm was dumped by a girlfriend (before marriage to Lucy), the girl’s cat was strangled and left on her doorstep. Hence the “mythical offences” reference.

Of course, if Abetz does not have such a back-up then it is quite probable that he has misled the Senate. If the opposition want to try to be tricksy in the future, they need to start playing some roleplaying games, I think.

The fact that they can weasel out of anything is no surprise – they are masters at it. However the stench permeating the air around them is growing ever greater – and in the end it’s not the details that matter to the public – it’s the perception. So Turnbull amd hopefully Abetz are rooted.

530 – holy fuck KatieLou – never heard that one. But everyone will know it by this afternoon 😆

Antony Albanese made reference to it yesterday. Along the lines of:

…is a dead cat, and the Leader of the Opposition certainly knows what a dead cat looks like!

If it’s true, that’s really sick. I don’t think it should be circulated without proof, as simply hearing about it affects perception – it has mine.

530
Katielou Says:
Yes I’d heard that tale about feline homicide. KL 🙂
Crikey published the original article by Richard Ackland in Justinian last Thursday.
I thought it was a bit over the top and tacky, until the next day………..
when FirstDog leapt onto the scene with this gem.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/06/19/first-dog-on-the-moon-339/

Without doubt, one of his finer efforts. :mrgreen:

In other developments, I see the senate has voted not to investigate our beloved senator Eric Abetz.
It seems that paragon of moral virtue, S.Fielding has decided to vote with the opposition (surprise) and knock back any chance of an embarrassing moment for Erica.

DG @ 537
I think the cat is well and truly out of the bag, so to speak.
And that FirstDog is pure genius!

BTW
Just spotted this little You Tube effort on twitter.

A TRIBUTE TO THE COURAGEOUS AND BRAVE CITIZENS OF IRAN – Election June 2009
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bo3-paRB2No

I’m still not sure what I think about it.
It pushes all the right buttons and has similarities to the Obama online election campaign……
However, I’m not sure how much good it will do when it comes to changing the situation in Iran. 🙁
Still….It’s quite powerful and clever in the way it zooms in and clearly shows the faces of the guys with the guns who’re threatening the populace.
Having your face clearly identified and broadcast out across the globe, *might* just cause members of the revolutionary guard and the Basij to pause and consider the future.
Video evidence on the net is not something that can be hushed up or shut down.

Paddy,

About as much good as images being shown around the world of the brave fellow in front of the tanks did for the Chinese students.

I doubt very much whether knowing that people can see you committing murder is going to stop these kinds of people. From their perspective, the people viewing are Westerner scum – probably from the Great Satan and the Little Satan – and seeing how willing you are to kill for the Revolution might make them tremble and turn to Allah for redemption.

and at 545 – sadly, I agree. I doubt that us seeing what is going on will make one iota of difference to the regime in Iran.

Paddy – yay for Stephen. 🙄
Once again ensuring 1.8% of the population decide what does and does not happen in this great land of ours. PJK got it right re swill. (Apart from Bob and others of course 😉 )

545
DG
I’m afraid I agree with you David. 🙁
However, the Chinese situation was a little different.
The tank drivers weren’t clearly identified.

Also, the people viewing this sort of stuff aren’t just us “Godless Satan worshipping infidel scum”. They’re also a large section of the Iranian populace.
While I realise there’s an obvious temptation to overplay the “power of twitter/Internet” sort of stuff.
Iran seems to be a far more sophisticated place than many of it’s neighbours. The power of the urban population seems to have surprised the ruling clique, so who knows where it will all end.

The poor bastards are certainly doing it tougher than we are.
At least our political scene is only metaphorically bloody. 🙁

If Iranians are viewing it, I think the rulers will be pleased. ‘See? Protest and we’ll beat you to death.’

Guy Rundle in today’s Crikey on Mark Sanford.

This one truly *is* pure gold!!! :mrgreen:

The Deliverance of Mark Sanford
by Guy Rundle
Tonight I can write the saddest lines.

Write for example, ‘The night is shattered
and the blue stars shiver in the distance.’

The night wind revolves in the sky and sings.

Tonight I can write the saddest lines.
I loved her, and sometimes she loved me too.
– Pablo Neruda

So take a letter Maria
Address it to my wife
Say I won’t be coming home soon
Gonna start a new life
– FM radio

Hey. Are you reading this at work? Do you want to go and make a coffee, get a butternut snap? I’ll wait. It’s really worth it. You back? OK here we go………

http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/06/25/rundle-the-deliverance-of-mark-sanford/

550
DG
I can’t remember where I read it, but I seem to recall
The Iranian govt is already so worried about their citizens seeing it (and others like it), that they are bringing in forces from outside Tehran to tackle the demonstrators.
It works the same way around the world when dealing with domestic disputes. Cops and security forces routinely cover their faces and remove badge numbers etc.
But they and their families still have to live in the same cities and towns as the people they’re oppressing.
While the current regime is still in charge and the demonstrators are perceived as a minority, local security forces can get away with pretty much anything they like. But Iranians don’t have to look very far back into their own history, to see what happens when the balance of power shifts.
The Shah and SAVAK were pretty good at pushing the “behave or else” line. But in the end, it didn’t save them.

While it’s impossible to tell what’s *really* going on from so far away, one can only hope the blood won’t flow *too* freely until the situation stabilises.
I’m not that optimistic though. 🙁

THe thing is, though, the Basij are normally uneducated people from the country side in any case. These are the people they normally unleash against the students – they did it in 1999 and in 2003 (I think it was 2003). Unless the security services turn on the Basij, I cannot see a happy ending here.

In general, I question the wisdom of engaging in protest against regimes willing to kill. History basically tells us that 99 times out of 100 revolutions fail, because trained fighting men will defeat peasants, shopkeepers, students and office workers in the vast majority of cases. Peaceful revolutions fail even more often. While this may be simple cowardice on my part, I doubt that I would fight against such a regime in this way. I would do my damdest to get out of the country, though.

554 David Gould “Unless the security services turn on the Basij, I cannot see a happy ending here.” It’s definitely the Basij the need to hit and run against. The have been some “picked off” by letting people know where they were. Stretch there lines thin to pick them off.

Paddy – Rundle is Bewdiful on this one – perhaps the man has trodden the rocky path of illicit love, and survived. Unlike the enormous hypocrite Sanford. :mrgreen:

ChrisB – you must be as chuffed as all getout 😉

DG: “I would do my damdest to get out of the country, though.”

Indeed, David, who wouldn’t when your life or that of family is in imminent jeopardy.
Under similar circumstances, in AUD how much would you pay a “people smuggler” to vouchsafe you to a despot free zone?
——————————
Jun 24:
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/mattbors;_ylt=AoQKx1o8pt2KzaBVilyMOuDmcLQF

Jun 24:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/patoliphant;_ylt=AoHVHNvQLCAkCP.K4fXC.wEDwLAF

Jun 24:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/bensargent;_ylt=ApvY3689GzfxyOcMi_Gvzt40vTYC

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/72266
——————————

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/72246

paddy – fuck you!! half a glass of NZ sauv blanc squirted out my nose despite warning.

Hate to spoil the fun , but the footage from Iran is horrifying.
And whatTF can we do?? How is this, that the world stands by, seeing such violence aginst unarmed people and we do nothing?

Fuck Religion – it is the basis of all of this insanity. (Including deadshit Fielding getting the virtaul balance of power here. )
aaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrggggggggggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhh.
more wine.

paddy – no doubt the OzPol scene is a total hoot and a wonderful distraction. But I’m haunted by Neda’s dying eyes ( and she was no martyr – she was simply a sympathetic and innocent bystander).
Don’t knopw what to do or how to do it, but as Cat said , it is just so wrong.

568
Indeed Jen. It’s the curse of the Intertubes. We get to watch what goes on around the world, but we are quite powerless to exert any real influence over the outcomes. 🙁

Indeed Paddy – just had a huge argument with recently acquired friend who said basically – “wh do you care , nothing we can do.”
. Tried to be rational, but ended up ripping his head off .
*sigh* back to RSVP.

on a lighter note – did anyone see Chasers last night?
watched it today… hilarious. They even got Phillip Ruddock to be mildly endearing – And that is an incredible feat IMHO.

Ah, what a day, and I’ve spent most of it in VPN’s and routers and geekdom!

But what I’ve heard on the news has been, well, what’s the word: electrifying? (As in electrodes to the gonads of Herr Truffles and Erica)

Try telling the AFP it’s all about “parliamentary privilege” if they’re smack in the middle of a crime, and let’s face it, they’re pretty close to the action of several that possibly Grech and/or others committed.

Does the phrase ‘pervert the course of justice’ sound as nice as ‘parliamentary privilege’ I wonder?

Help me out on this one Ferny, ‘coz it’s a dark dark jungle in there! LOL

But regardless of how Truffles ducks and weaves, the public have heard him hold up the word ‘privilege’ as a defence against incriminating himself any further, and that’s a word that smells bad to the punters.

Yep, Mal, you’ve hidden behind the very word you accused Swannie and Ruddster of misusing.

If Grech is charged, Mal will be at least a witness, and he’d better hope that’s all he is!

God, and Erica too, jumping up the moment he’s caught behind the bushes with a public servant, claiming it’s somehow his ‘privilege’ not to disclose what went on.

Yeah, right, of course it is. “I had a conversation with the bank robbers the day before Your Honour, and yes, I was present when the they robbed the bank, but I don’t have to tell you what we discussed…I have a special privilege!”

Howls of laughter around the nation for that one Erica.

Ah Kirri – it is indeed delicious.
Watched Red Kezza do a bit of a re-run tonigt. Malcs has turned from tanned and arrogant into the whiter shade of pale. The Gremlin looks positively Gollum like, and despite all going in his favour Kevin still looks like a complete nerd, (oh, and Fielding is still running the country. )
How in the name of the gods did we get so many idiots in power?
Salut Democracy .

Los Angeles Times
Iran opposition leader blasts rulers; 70 professors arrested

Reporting from Tehran – Iran’s leading opposition figurehead, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, launched a lengthy broadside against the Iranian leadership and state-owned media in comments published today on his website as authorities arrested 70 university professors who had met with him.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/la-fg-iran-vote26-2009jun26,0,6531864.story

For some analysis of geopolitical ebbs and flows – take a peek at this article over on the NYT: Arab States Aligned With U.S. Savor Turmoil in Iran …

The rancorous dispute over Iran’s presidential election could turn into a win-win for Arab leaders aligned with Washington who in the past have complained bitterly that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was destabilizing the region and meddling in Arab affairs, political analysts and former officials around the region said.

The good-news thinking goes like this: With Mr. Ahmadinejad remaining in office, there is less chance of substantially improved relations between Tehran and Washington, something America’s Arab allies feared would undermine their interests. At the same time, the electoral conflict may have weakened Iran’s leadership at home and abroad, forcing it to focus more on domestic stability, political analysts and former officials said.

“When Iran is strong and defiant they don’t like her and when Iran is closer to the West they don’t like her,” said Adnan Abu Odeh, a former adviser to King Hussein of Jordan.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/25/world/middleeast/25arabs.htm

Gooya News
Photos of striking retailers in Saghez Bazaar (Kurdistan province of Iran)

Gooya news was in receipt of these photos today. It is reported that all retailers in the bazaar of Saghez (Kurdistan province of Iran) have gone on strike starting Tuesday in support of citizens demonstrating against handling of recent Iran election results.

Not that I want to pour fuel on fire on anything, but a little backtracking is in order here. The following article is from the 12 Nov 2007 – titled: Iranian Kurdistan: A simmering cauldron

Simmering discontent among Iran’s ethnic Kurdish minority – aided by the government’s conflict with a Turkish PKK offshoot – could spell major trouble for the Iranian government.

And as a postscript, if I may be so bold as to suggest a little geopolitical adventurism may be in play: Human Rights Watch: Iran: Freedom of Expression and Association in the Kurdish Regions (January 2009)

In the meantime – in overnight news: The Daily Beast’s Reza Aslan reports that Iran’s clerics may be close to forcing a compromise from the Supreme Leader—one that would entail a run-off election between Mousavi and Ahmadinejad.

Reliable sources in Iran are suggesting that a possible compromise to put an end to the violent uprising that has rocked Iran for the past two weeks may be in the works. I have previously reported that the second most powerful man in Iran, Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, the head of the Assembly of Experts (the body with the power to choose and dismiss the Supreme Leader) is in the city of Qom—the country’s religious center—trying to rally enough votes from his fellow Assembly members to remove the current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei from power. News out of Iran suggests that he may be succeeding. At the very least, it seems he may have gained enough support from the clerical establishment to force a compromise from Khamenei, one that would entail a run-off election between Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his main reformist rival Mir Hossein Mousavi.

And some footage of ground roots community organising, Tehran style:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MD13WNKNGQk&feature=player_embedded

One more thing – Michael Jackson and Farrah Fawcett died tonight.

Richard Ackland in today’s SMH:

To claim that a police investigation requires anyone, let alone politicians, to remain mum is a stretch too far.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/its-a-privilege-to-watch-this-affair-20090625-cy5b.html?page=-1

(Worth a read)

Ackland, as many here will know, has a long association with things legal, so it’s a bit more authoritative than my assertion yesterday that the “parliamentary privilege” in a criminal matter was a fig leaf in autumn.

Well Catrina, he spent most of his life trying to look like her! LOL

578
KR
Let the mourning begin.
The wailing and rending of clothes, the hyperbole, the deeply felt loss………….I could go on for ……hmm seconds. 👿

All but for a fake email, which the Shanahan fails to even mention in his piece today in the Oz, Swan was another scalp for Turnbull!

Oh, give me a break. Talk about desperate political reporting, not to mention partisan. As Malcolm Farr said on his blog in the Tele, the whole thing is about nothing, Grant received nothing, not a zack, and the rest is hair splitting. So much for the Treasurer’s ‘influence’! LOL

It was great to hear the Liberals all making rallying calls to back Turnbull (‘our next PM’!) but the best one was off the record, where the Liberal member said he/she hoped the email with Costello’s resignation was a fake! LOL

Gotta say, that’s almost the best line of the week.

Yeah Paddy, I’m waiting for the digital remix and computer enhanced clip of Jacko and Farrah singing together.

582
Actually Kirri, I think the best line of the week was Tony Burke’s.
If anything happens to Jasper, there’ll be questions in the house. 😆

Jen,

The world can only stand by … unless it launches a military invasion of some kind. I am all for using military force to topple murderous dictatorships. However, given what happened in Iraq, I cannot see such an invasion turning out well in this particular case. The Iranian people would in all likelihood resist such an invasion, so we would end up shooting the people that we had come to save …

Or, DG, we could send in our very own political WMD, (that’s self destruction, by the way!) one Mal Turnbull, and he could demand that Ahmadinejad resign.

That oughta work, eh?

Or, Paddy, the Mark Latham of the Liberal Party!

Gotta say it’s been a very quotable week.

From the wretch Grech to Mr Trufffles and Erica, it’s been one long hoot of memorable lines, from their side, and even better ones from the other.

That Mr Truffles story is not going away. My mouth fell open when I heard Tony Burke last night.

In other news – I note there’s one less child molester in the world.

586
DG
It’s probably worth remembering that the 1979 revolution didn’t happen overnight. This one won’t either.
I fear a lot of pain and suffering is still to unfold before any tipping point might be reached. 🙁
External interference is only going to muddy the waters and really won’t help the poor bastards getting their asses kicked right now.

I suspect the final result will depend on economics, rather than stirring speeches or twitter.
Still, it’s deeply frustrating to watch and feel like a powerless digital voyeur. 🙁

paddy,

The 1979 revolution was, I think, unique. The driving force was a spiritual one, and it affected soldiers as much as it affected civilians. The Ayatollah was seen as Messiah-like figure, something that I do not think Mousavi can aspire to. The demonstrations in support of the Ayatollah are suspected to be the largest demonstrations in history, with millions involved. Perhaps around 10 per cent of the population of Iran were involved in taking actions against the government, something unheard of in any revolution. The final toppling of the government and the establishment of the Islamic state was a result of military units siding with the Ayatollah.

Misinformation fed the revolution, too, something that can be crucial. As we get more accurate information, we are often reluctant to take drastic action. But when you hear that tens of thousands of people have been murdered – the real figure was later determined to be 80 – then you can be inspired to take huge risks. If the real figure had been known quickly, it is difficult to see people being as outraged as they were.

Anyway, the factors are very different.

But it is true that the revolution took months of action, and years of build-up, before it was successful. This one might be similar.

That was a great interview with Reza Aslan. It’s probaly been said before, but if there’s a positive from what’s happened in Iran over the last couple of weeks, it’s that we in the West identify so strongly with the people, that the idea of bombing Iran pushed so heavily by the neocons and some in Israel has become unthinkable.

Katielou,

It hasn’t become unthinkable for me. Indeed, the actions of the Iranian government make me even more certain that they must not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons. Rulers that murder their own people are not the sort of people you want to have with their finger on the nuclear trigger. And if diplomacy fails, military attacks on their nuclear installations – which, make no mistake, will result in the deaths of innocent civilians – becomes pretty much the only option. And the actions of the Iranian government has made it more likely that diplomacy will fail, unfortunately. (Although Obama has kept a very cool head, which gives me hope that he can pull it off.)

I disagree DG. IMO the Western stereotype of an Iranian has been stripped away by the footage we’ve all seen. The people can no longer be demonized en masse. Imagine McCain’s “bomb, bomb, bomb Iran” ditty now?

Just because they kill their citizens, it doesn’t necessarily follow that they are a nuclear threat. We’ll have to wait and see – as Reza Aslan puts it – Iran’s regime could go the way of China or the way of North Korea.

However, I agree that it is very good that we can see many Iranians as just like us.

I would also add that ‘waiting and seeing’ whether they become a nuclear threat or not is not really a comforting strategy.

I simply don’t agree with you about Iran being a nuclear threat, and I’ve heard a lot of commentators say the same thing. It’s not a given as you put it.

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