Thing is I’ve watched this movie four times now. And that – in and of itself – bothers me. There are conflicts present in the script – not spoken so much – just the noise between the lines. I’m on the fence, is it junk or is it a milestone?
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705 replies on “Promethius … science, religion, or something else?”
Bad News For Embattled GOP Senate Candidate.
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More here…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/02/donnelly-indiana-poll_n_2063743.html
Pollsters Often Swing And Miss On The Growing Latino Vote.
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Complete article here…
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/11/latino-polling-problems.php?ref=fpnewsfeed
Latinos’ Support for Obama Solid in Florida.
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More here…
http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2012/10/30/latinos-support-for-obama-solid-in-florida/
Mitt Romney come on down
http://www.opednews.com/articles/UAW-Files-Charges-Against-by-Greg-Palast-121102-673.html
Latest poll in Indiana of which there are very few. (Polling is discouraged). Joe Donnelly is 11% up on Richard Mourdock. 🙂
Chris B,
The polls are not looking like a landslide. I still think that 303 is Obama’s maximum, and that he may get less than that (Virginia and Colorado are slightly vulnerable to Romney). I think Nate Silver will hone in around 303.
David
604 Gaffhook Wow Gaffy that is awesome news. I hope it is right and not just a story from the Onion. 🙂
Just saw Nate Silver on Rachael Maddow (from yesterday). He said everything is trending to Obama. Did not say how far though.
Its at 305.5 now and all the good Obama stuff is not completely reflected in the polls.
A heap of good polls came in for Obama yesterday.
The Latino vote is never reflected in Colorado polls. Out by around 3%
Actually. I think Nate gave Virginia to Obama.
Robo polling companies pole in English first. When a non English speaking Latino answers the phone. The hear English and hang up.
Also a lot of polling companies are not polling mobiles properly. Latinos have a higher number of mobile phones.
Rachael Maddow: ‘This has hues of a banana republic’
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More here…
http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2012/11/01/14859366-this-has-hues-of-a-banana-republic?lite
604 Gaffhook I have just posted it to reddit. The politics guys on there will be right onto it.
Rachael Maddow show will be televised on Sunday night. An election special.
In Ohio at the moment. All the news services are saying the Romney Jeep ad is a lie. The news item finishes and THAT Jeep ad runs.
Barack Obama and Bruce Springsteen in Madison Wisconsin together. I think Sunday.
.
The Ed show will be on Sat & Sun.
Obama Leads In Ohio, Narrowly Ahead In Florida, Poll Says.
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More here…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/03/obama-ohio-florida-polls_n_2068613.html
Obama has the momentum.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Obama’s chance of winning graph is climbing. Mitt Romney’s graph is dropping.
Intrade Obama 67.7% chance of winning. Up 1.8% today.
My 303 includes Virginia and Colorado. I think that North Carolina and Florida are going to go with Romney.
Obama Camp Claims 1.8 Million New Swing State Voter Registrations.
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More here…
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/11/obama-memo-swing-state-voter-registrations.php?ref=fpa
Obama has a slight edge in Florida 2% and the high tech GOTV will help. North Carolina will be a bit harder. More likely Romney.
Ah ha. We found something to disagree on. Florida. 🙂
I sure miss EC’s political cartoon’s.
Pollsters Often Swing And Miss On The Growing Latino Vote.
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More here..
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/11/latino-polling-problems.php?ref=fpnewsfeed
I have serious doubts that Obama is ahead by two in Florida.
One poll shows him ahead by two, but the last 10 polls from Florida have Obama in front in three of them, one tie and Romney in front in six of them. Nate Silver has Romney the favourite in Florida, although admittedly only just.
But it is line ball, I will give you that. Obama could win Florida. My gut tells me no, however.
Firewall Intact
Nate Cohn notes that, along with the solidly blue states, “the combination of Wisconsin, Nevada, and Ohio provides Obama with 271 electoral votes. As of today, there is not a single non-partisan survey showing Romney ahead in any of these three states.”
Greg Sargent points out that the polling averages show Obama leading in those states by 2.9, 5.4 and 2.7 points respectively.
http://politicalwire.com
Nancy Pelosi Raised $12.9 Million in October.
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Take that Republicans.
More here…
http://atr.rollcall.com/pelosi-raised-12-9-million-in-october/
That will really upset the wingnuts.
Bill Clinton is going to Minnesota to campaign against Michelle Bachman. 🙂
PPP Tracking: Obama Expands Lead To 3 Points.
The Democratic pollster has been one of the most accurate and reliable pollsters for a number of years.
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/ppp-tracking-obama-expands-lead-to-3-points
Keep up the good flow of data Chris David and others.
Jen – looks like your local council contains a few hooters?!
More on Obama Pulling Ahead Nationally.
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http://politicalwire.com
636 Wakefield Thanks. Its good to get feedback.
I’ve found out that the Democrats are meeting in South Melbourne to watch this event unfold. I’ll be there.
.
http://www.meetup.com/americans-in-melbourne/events/88758282/
I would be surprised if Obama beat Clinton’s margin. Although it would be handy if he got close. The Republicans will not accept Obama winning no matter what the margin.
Clinton got 370 electoral votes in 1992. Obama has a much worse candidate and Romney is within 4% ???? WTF???
Romney couldn’t lie straight in bed if his life depended on it.
And now for something completely different: Brooks told Cameron she ‘cried twice’ during his speech.
We don’t have to go into withdrawal after the election after all. 🙂
More here…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20189595
Thanks to the Supreme Court, Early Voting Is Still Taking Place in Ohio
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Much more on the votemaster….
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Nov04.html#item-1
I have noticed that the Obama campaign is armed with mobile phones with maps that are marked (with a red X) with the residence of the voters that they can contact as well as information about the voter. The Democrats have many more field workers than the Republicans. Not only that. The Democrat workers are much younger. Therefore they would be far more technically minded. Making the Democrats Get Out The Vote procedure far more efficient than the Republicans.
The field workers know whether they are going to pick up Latinos, African Americans, gays or lesbians. Maybe still in the closet.
The clue here is NOT to subscribe to any magazines if you want to keep things secret. 🙂
Damn! I should have cancelled that quantity surveying magazine. My secrets out.
Obama Campaign: We’ve Contacted One Out Of Every 2.5 People In The Country.
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Not surprising. Given my point at #645 Thanks Huffington Post for backing up my statement. 🙂
More here..
https://politic.osm.net/2012/07/promethius-science-religion-or-nothing-special/comment-page-7/#comment-167972
Whoops! You need the right link.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/03/obama-voter-contact_n_2069289.html
Obama Has ‘Modest Lead’ Over Romney: Final Pew Poll.
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Working on the assumption that the polls are climbing for Obama and dropping for Mitt. On election day it could be closer to 4%. Throw in the under performance of the polls for Latinos particularly around Colorado, Nevada and Arizona. We are looking good. 🙂
More here.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/04/obama-romney-poll_n_2073229.html
Should Obama win control of Congress. A couple of the things he needs to do: fix the illegal immigrant problem and protect voting rights. Both of these will make it VERY hard for the current extreme Republican Party to get back in. The new Progressive Democrats would be able to do a lot of good that needs to be done. A lot of the centrists will be gone. No longer there to water down legislation.
Perhaps the best news for Obama in the poll is the strength of his supporters’ enthusiasm. Eight in 10 Obama supporters say they’re voting for him rather than against Romney, while only 60 percent of Romney supporters say they’re primarily voting for him rather than against Obama.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/04/obama-romney-poll_n_2073229.html
Tony Abbott’s $4.6b slug to business.
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Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbotts-46b-slug-to-business-20121104-28s8t.html#ixzz2BIPRdkX8
Is Julia Gillard hitting her stride?
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Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/is-gillard-hitting-her-stride-20121104-28rys.html#ixzz2BIS5saMS
In the event that President Obama wins reelection on Tuesday, Republicans have already found their scapegoat: Hurricane Sandy.
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It wasn’t the Tea Party after all.
More here…
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/11/republicans-romney-hurricane-sandy.php?ref=fpnewsfeed
Florida County Overwhelmed by Early Voters
The Miami Herald reports an attempt by the Miami-Dade elections department to let more people vote early Sunday “devolved into chaos after the department was overwhelmed with voters.”
http://politicalwire.com
Early Voting May Doom Romney in Nevada.
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http://politicalwire.com
Polling companies accuracies. Assuming Pew is in the all other basket Obama can expect to pick up a bit more. I’ll still be happy with 4%.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/blast-from-rasmussen-past.html
The Redskins Lost, Which Means That Mitt Romney Will Be President.
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Damn! All my theories have gone out the window!
More here….
http://www.buzzfeed.com/ktlincoln/todays-redskins-game-will-determine-the-president
Vote With Your Vagina… For Barack Obama.
Very funny. 🙂
http://www.buzzfeed.com/summeranne/vote-with-your-vagina-for-barack-obama
I have just picked up 3 political followers on Twitter. Democrats for Nevada. The Governor of West Virginia (a Democrat) and …………… wait for it…… Tony Abbott.
Tony only has 202 followers. Snigger. Julia Gillard has 298,911
662
Chris that is funny, Tony the fakir followed me about a week and a half ago. I refuse to follow him because it would help get his numbers up and i also don’t want to read his dribble.
Hockey is another of the Aussie tea baggers on twitter. The minute anyone knocks his bullshit over with facts he tells them to grow up and disappears or blocks them.
Tammy Baldwin: On the brink of victory?
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More here…
http://www.salon.com/2012/11/04/tammy_baldwin_on_the_brink_of_victory/
#663 “I refuse to follow him because it would help get his numbers up and i also don’t want to read his dribble.” Me too. If you want to boost your numbers join NOH8. At least Tony won’t be on it.
Tony must be REALLY desperate to want me.
Chris B,
Obama is not going to win control of Congress. A party needs 218 for a majority. The Republicans have a lock on 224 according to RCP, with 33 tossups. There is no way through that lock unless the polls are wildly wrong.
House Election 2012: Republicans Still Favored To Retain Majority.
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more here….
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/04/house-election-2012_n_2038787.html
Snap David. 🙂
I think that the Democrats will pick up around five. In 2016, they will have the chance to take the House back.
Massive crowds turn out to see Obama.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/#49688441
People are standing in line for up to 8 hours in Florida to vote. Rick Scott’s voter suppression laws are NOT discouraging people. In fact election officials are finding ways around the laws. Like handing out voting cards at some shops. I suspect this will backfire on the Republicans. Rachael Maddow is giving it a lot of coverage.
Over the counter voting is happening in Florida.
Romney Ryan team split. The same as McCain Palin.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/#49688609
Most of the Rachael Maddow show was about Republican cheating/voter suppression. Great finger pointing on Rachael’s behalf.
Linda McMahon (Republican) Doorhanger: Vote For Obama … And Me.
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More here…
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/11/linda-mcmahon-vote-for-obama.php?ref=fpa
Scam PACs and scam polls are hurting the Republican Party GOP.
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There you are David. Does that explain it for you enough?
http://americablog.com/2012/11/scam-pacs-and-scam-polls.html
Was hopjng the Merkins weren’t that stupid…
http://www.theage.com.au/world/us-election/polls-throw-clouds-over-romney-chances-20121104-28s48.html
and thanks everyone for the congrats …
xx
Ironic that the Climate change denialist party may bomb out becuase of a climate change induced event –
idiots.
and that would be ‘because’ …
:rollseyes:
Peter Reith predicted Obama would probably win by a larger majority than expected.
680 Jen I missed that one. But I like it.
Nearly all the red has gone from Nate Silvers chart. I hope Nate is spot on because of the skeptics. (Read Republicans).
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/state-and-national-polls-come-into-better-alignment/
The closer to election day the more accurate the polls, According to one expert on the ED Show people he spoke to said the Obama campaign is more organised than 2008. The intense use of smart phones is my observation.
685 Significantly more organised. Mitt Romney has been losing the seniors vote. He is gone from 19% to 9% that would be about the only major group he has a significant lead in.
How can Obi lose with support like this?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101773755
Brower (don’t know the correct spelling) county South Florida will probably equal if not surpass the 2008 vote.
Nate Silver forecasting 307 to Obama. An extra 4 to Obama. from a couple of days ago.
Chris B,
Remember that this is the average forecast. That is why 303 is much more likely than 307. To get 307, Obama would have to win Florida and lose Ohio and Oregon, for example, or win North Carolina but lose Iowa and New Mexico.
If you look at the way the states are likely to fall and start with 303 as the most likely, the next step up for Obama is adding Florida to get to 332. Then the next step is adding North Carolina, to reach 347.
Going the other way, losing Virginia would cost Obama 13, putting him at 290. Then losing Colorado would put him at 281.
There are of course combinations – Obama could win Florida but lose Virginia, for example, giving him 319.
Or he could win Florida but lose Colorado, putting him at 323.
Or he could win Florida but lose both of them, which would put him at 310.
I think that those are the most realistic possibilities. I cannot see Obama winning North Carolina and losing Virginia, for example. Even winning Florida but losing Virginia is a bit of a stretch.
So in my opinion the realistical possible spread of numbers are:
281, 290, 303, 310, 319, 323, 332 and 347
Note that all of them have Obama winning. 😉
And 303 is my pick. As you think Obama is going to win Florida, 332 is your pick. But our view is only one state different, which might come down to one per cent of the Florida electorate one way or the other. In statistical terms, that is complete agreement. 🙂
Something has gone whacky at 538. Something is wrong in the scenario analysis section, where is says as of 15:48 that Romney has an 88 per cent chance of winning the popular vote. Weird.
And Florida has tipped for Obama, which might not be so weird. The projected vote share is 49.9 to 49.7, with a margin of error of 2.7.
691
David Gould
I suspect there’s a drunken sub editor at 538 who’s reversed the figures. 😆
Meanwhile, it’s started.
Via twitter.
First votes are in in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire. 10 voters; 5 Obama, 5 Romney. It’s going to be a long day.
Obama beat McCain 365 to 173. Romney is a far worse candidate. Yet its close.
Interesting. From the Maddow Show. Pew research showed that McCain lost the Latino vote by 36%. The same poll has Mitt Romney losing the Latino vote by 39%. Latino Decisions shows the Latino vote just out at 49%.
That’s 39 to 49% of a much bigger Latino population.
test
hmm first post accepted for about a week…shrug.
1 day to Repug meltdown.
Saw Karl Rove on O’Reillys show earlier on Fox. When his turn to speak he went into automatic pilot saying all the right confident things…but when not speaking, his glumness shone through. It’s lost.
Howard Fineman Huffington Post said the Obama campaigns Get Out The Vote looks super efficient. Compared to the Romney’s old style GOTV.
697 HarryH Good to hear. HarryH Welcome aboard for the Final Countdown. 🙂
USA Today Gallop poll. Men Obama 43% Romney 53%
Women Obama 56% Romney 40% There are more women voters than men. With women, Latino’s (see poll above) and African Americans 99% for Obama. Why is it even close?