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Thing is I’ve watched this movie four times now. And that – in and of itself – bothers me. There are conflicts present in the script – not spoken so much – just the noise between the lines. I’m on the fence, is it junk or is it a milestone?

705 Responses to “Promethius … science, religion, or something else?”

  1. 601
    Chris B says:

    Bad News For Embattled GOP Senate Candidate.

    Indiana Democrat Joe Donnelly shows signs of pulling ahead of Richard Mourdock in the closely fought race to replace Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.). Donnelly leads, 47 percent to 36 percent, according to a Howey/DePauw University Battleground Poll released Friday morning.

    Past Howey/DePauw surveys showed the two candidates tied in March, and put Donnelly 2 points ahead in September.

    More here…

  2. 602
    Chris B says:

    Pollsters Often Swing And Miss On The Growing Latino Vote.

    Matt Barreto, founding principal at the research firm Latino Decisions and professor at the University of Washington, said on Thursday that his work has shown pollsters are often sloppy when they field a Latino sample.


    He pointed to the 2010 Senate races in Nevada and Colorado, where Democratic incumbents Harry Reid and Michael Bennet defied the consensus of many pollsters to emerge as the winners. Latino voters who ended up overwhelmingly supporting Reid and Bennet were misrepresented in polls of those races, Barreto said. It turned out to be a real embarrassment for the pollsters who predicted the incumbents would be defeated.


    Most polls show President Obama with massive leads over Republican challenger Mitt Romney among Latinos. That’s demonstrated by the 33-point gap in the PollTracker Average. But some polls have shown Obama with a modest single-digit lead among the group. Barreto said that’s a clear sign to him that the pollster’s methodology has a Latino problem.

    “If Latinos are about 10 percent of the electorate, and you’re putting Obama only plus six, you’re missing about 2 to 3 points of support that Obama has,” Barreto said.

    Complete article here…

  3. 603
    Chris B says:

    Latinos’ Support for Obama Solid in Florida.

    With the election less than two weeks away there has been a great deal of speculation about the Latino community’s support for President Obama, particularly in Florida. Most recently, an Interactive Voice Response survey, or “robo-poll,” conducted on October 10-11 by Florida International University showed that 50.7% of Latinos in Florida who identified themselves as likely voters would vote for President Obama, with 44.2% supporting Governor Romney. With a margin of error of 3.65%, this puts the race at dead even in Florida.

    More here…

  4. 604
    Gaffhook says:

    Mitt Romney come on down

    For Mitt Romney, it’s one scary Halloween. The Presidential candidate has just learned that tomorrow afternoon he will charged with violating the federal Ethics in Government law by improperly concealing his multi-million dollar windfall from the auto industry bail-out.


  5. 605
    Chris B says:

    Latest poll in Indiana of which there are very few. (Polling is discouraged). Joe Donnelly is 11% up on Richard Mourdock. :)

  6. 606
    David Gould says:

    Chris B,

    The polls are not looking like a landslide. I still think that 303 is Obama’s maximum, and that he may get less than that (Virginia and Colorado are slightly vulnerable to Romney). I think Nate Silver will hone in around 303.


  7. 607
    Chris B says:

    604 Gaffhook Wow Gaffy that is awesome news. I hope it is right and not just a story from the Onion. :)

  8. 608
    Chris B says:

    Just saw Nate Silver on Rachael Maddow (from yesterday). He said everything is trending to Obama. Did not say how far though.

  9. 609
    Chris B says:

    Its at 305.5 now and all the good Obama stuff is not completely reflected in the polls.

  10. 610
    Chris B says:

    A heap of good polls came in for Obama yesterday.

  11. 611
    Chris B says:

    The Latino vote is never reflected in Colorado polls. Out by around 3%

  12. 612
    Chris B says:

    Actually. I think Nate gave Virginia to Obama.

  13. 613
    Chris B says:

    Robo polling companies pole in English first. When a non English speaking Latino answers the phone. The hear English and hang up.

  14. 614
    Chris B says:

    Also a lot of polling companies are not polling mobiles properly. Latinos have a higher number of mobile phones.

  15. 615
    Chris B says:

    Rachael Maddow: ‘This has hues of a banana republic’

    In mid-September, the non-partisan Congressional Research Service published a detailed report, documenting the fact that reducing taxes on the wealthy does not, in fact, generate economic growth. Instead, the CRS found, the trickle-down model appears to be “associated with the increasing concentration of income at the top.”

    The report was no small development. After all, as David Leonhardt noted when it was published, the CRS analysis undermines a “defining economic policy” of modern Republican thought. Indeed, the entire Romney/Ryan economic plan is predicated on the assumption that supply-side theory works, and here was the CRS saying it doesn’t.

    More here…

  16. 616
    Chris B says:

    604 Gaffhook I have just posted it to reddit. The politics guys on there will be right onto it.

  17. 617
    Chris B says:

    Rachael Maddow show will be televised on Sunday night. An election special.

  18. 618
    Chris B says:

    In Ohio at the moment. All the news services are saying the Romney Jeep ad is a lie. The news item finishes and THAT Jeep ad runs.

  19. 619
    Chris B says:

    Barack Obama and Bruce Springsteen in Madison Wisconsin together. I think Sunday.
    The Ed show will be on Sat & Sun.

  20. 620
    Chris B says:

    Obama Leads In Ohio, Narrowly Ahead In Florida, Poll Says.

    President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by six percentage points in Ohio, and edges the Republican by two points in Florida, according to an NBC/WSJ/Marist poll released Friday night.

    The poll finds Obama ahead 51 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in Ohio, and 49 percent to 47 percent among likely Florida voters.

    More here…

  21. 621
  22. 622
    Chris B says:

    Obama’s chance of winning graph is climbing. Mitt Romney’s graph is dropping.

  23. 623
    Chris B says:

    Intrade Obama 67.7% chance of winning. Up 1.8% today.

  24. 624
    David Gould says:

    My 303 includes Virginia and Colorado. I think that North Carolina and Florida are going to go with Romney.

  25. 625
    Chris B says:

    Obama Camp Claims 1.8 Million New Swing State Voter Registrations.

    President Obama’s campaign released numbers Saturday that illustrate the robust ground operation Democrats say will secure him a second term Tuesday night.

    In a memo sent to reporters, the Obama campaign said it opened more than 5,000 get-out-the-vote “staging locations” Saturday morning in advance of the big push for votes Tuesday. Based in homes and businesses, the GOTV locations are “localized versions” of Obama field offices from which teams of volunteers using what the campaign says is advanced software will coordinate efforts to win the battleground states.

    The campaign revealed some impressive results from its grassroots operations so far. Team Obama says the campaign has registered 1,792,261 new voters across the battleground states. That’s “nearly double the number of voters the Obama campaign registered in 2008,” according to the campaign.

    More here…


  26. 626
    Chris B says:

    Obama has a slight edge in Florida 2% and the high tech GOTV will help. North Carolina will be a bit harder. More likely Romney.

  27. 627
    Chris B says:

    Ah ha. We found something to disagree on. Florida. :)

  28. 628
    Chris B says:

    I sure miss EC’s political cartoon’s.

  29. 629
    Chris B says:

    Pollsters Often Swing And Miss On The Growing Latino Vote.

    It turns out it’s hard for pollsters to capture the opinions of America’s fastest growing minority group. So hard, according to one researcher in the field, that many polling outfits have misfired in their attempts to survey Latino voters in this year’s election.

    Matt Barreto, founding principal at the research firm Latino Decisions and professor at the University of Washington, said on Thursday that his work has shown pollsters are often sloppy when they field a Latino sample.
    Sometimes that means that they simply underrepresented Latino voters, which made up roughly 9 to 10 percent of the total 2008 electorate.

    Other times it’s because they neglected to talk to native Spanish speakers by conducting polls only in English. Or, Barreto said, some bi-lingual pollsters have offered instructions in English first, reducing the chances that a Spanish-speaking voter will remain on the line long enough to indicate a preference in the election. A low number of Spanish interviews carries the potential of producing a sample that is too assimilated and affluent, he said.

    In a conference call with reporters, Barreto said any of these could potentially lead to big mistakes in the polls.

    More here..


  30. 630
    David Gould says:

    I have serious doubts that Obama is ahead by two in Florida.
    One poll shows him ahead by two, but the last 10 polls from Florida have Obama in front in three of them, one tie and Romney in front in six of them. Nate Silver has Romney the favourite in Florida, although admittedly only just.
    But it is line ball, I will give you that. Obama could win Florida. My gut tells me no, however.

  31. 631
    Chris B says:

    Firewall Intact
    Nate Cohn notes that, along with the solidly blue states, “the combination of Wisconsin, Nevada, and Ohio provides Obama with 271 electoral votes. As of today, there is not a single non-partisan survey showing Romney ahead in any of these three states.”

    Greg Sargent points out that the polling averages show Obama leading in those states by 2.9, 5.4 and 2.7 points respectively.

  32. 632
    Chris B says:

    Nancy Pelosi Raised $12.9 Million in October.

    The California Democrat held 65 fundraising and campaign events in eight states and Washington, D.C. Over the current election cycle, Pelosi has raised $85.1 million.

    Take that Republicans.

    More here…

  33. 633
    Chris B says:

    That will really upset the wingnuts.

  34. 634
    Chris B says:

    Bill Clinton is going to Minnesota to campaign against Michelle Bachman. :)

  35. 635
    Chris B says:

    PPP Tracking: Obama Expands Lead To 3 Points.
    The Democratic pollster has been one of the most accurate and reliable pollsters for a number of years.

  36. 636
    Wakefield says:

    Keep up the good flow of data Chris David and others.

    Jen – looks like your local council contains a few hooters?!

  37. 637
    Chris B says:

    More on Obama Pulling Ahead Nationally.

    The latest Public Policy Polling tracking poll shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney by three points nationally among likely voters, 50% to 47%.

    Key finding: “This is the first time either candidate has led by more than 2 points in the three weeks we’ve been doing this survey. Obama has led in 4 individual days of polling in a row since Wednesday, suggesting that he may be getting a bounce based on his leadership during Hurricane Sandy.”


  38. 638
    Chris B says:

    636 Wakefield Thanks. Its good to get feedback.

  39. 639
    Chris B says:

    I’ve found out that the Democrats are meeting in South Melbourne to watch this event unfold. I’ll be there.

  40. 640
    Chris B says:

    I would be surprised if Obama beat Clinton’s margin. Although it would be handy if he got close. The Republicans will not accept Obama winning no matter what the margin.

  41. 641
    Chris B says:

    Clinton got 370 electoral votes in 1992. Obama has a much worse candidate and Romney is within 4% ???? WTF???

  42. 642
    Chris B says:

    Romney couldn’t lie straight in bed if his life depended on it.

  43. 643
    Chris B says:

    And now for something completely different: Brooks told Cameron she ‘cried twice’ during his speech.

    Texts between the PM and the then-News International chief Rebekah Brooks given to the Leveson Inquiry have been published by the Mail on Sunday.

    After David Cameron’s party conference speech in 2009, Mrs Brooks texted: “Brilliant speech. I cried twice. Will love ‘working together’.”

    Downing Street confirmed the text messages were authentic and said the PM co-operated with the Leveson Inquiry.

    Lord Justice Leveson is due to publish his report into the press this month.

    We don’t have to go into withdrawal after the election after all. :)

    More here…

  44. 644
    Chris B says:

    Thanks to the Supreme Court, Early Voting Is Still Taking Place in Ohio

    Earlier this year, the Republican Secretary of State in Ohio, Jon Husted, decided to stop early voting on the weekend before the election (i.e., now) except for military families. The Democrats took him to court and ultimately the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that there was no basis in law to allow one group to have more voting time than everyone else. Yesterday large numbers of Ohioans voted but the real action is today, when Democrats have chartered buses to take voters directly from churches to polling places. Already 1.6 million people have voted in Ohio, which puts the state on track to top the 2008 early voting total, even though there are nine fewer voting days this year.

    Early voting is important for the Democrats in Ohio because black voters, who favor Obama about 95% to 5%, used early voting at a rate 26 times that of white voters. This effect is due to the fact that many blacks have inflexible job schedules and can’t take off time on Tuesdays to vote. A professional, like a lawyer, doctor, or architect, can reserve a few hours in advance on his or her election day agenda for voting, but a bus driver or nurse can’t do that.

    Despite the early voting yesterday and today in Ohio, enthusiasm among Democrats appears to be lower than in 2008, when thousands of young people volunteered for Obama’s campaign. Many of them are disappointed that he did not change the world, as they were (naively) expecting. Nevertheless, the Obama organization has a much larger get-out-the-vote effort in Ohio than Romney does, with 137 field offices, compared to Romney’s 40. Many experts expect the election to come down to which party does a better job of getting its supporters to the polls, rather than convincing the last three undecideds to join them.

    Much more on the votemaster….

  45. 645
    Chris B says:

    I have noticed that the Obama campaign is armed with mobile phones with maps that are marked (with a red X) with the residence of the voters that they can contact as well as information about the voter. The Democrats have many more field workers than the Republicans. Not only that. The Democrat workers are much younger. Therefore they would be far more technically minded. Making the Democrats Get Out The Vote procedure far more efficient than the Republicans.

  46. 646
    Chris B says:

    The field workers know whether they are going to pick up Latinos, African Americans, gays or lesbians. Maybe still in the closet.

  47. 647
    Chris B says:

    The clue here is NOT to subscribe to any magazines if you want to keep things secret. :)

  48. 648
    Chris B says:

    Damn! I should have cancelled that quantity surveying magazine. My secrets out.

  49. 649
    Chris B says:

    Obama Campaign: We’ve Contacted One Out Of Every 2.5 People In The Country.

    Up to this point in the election, the Obama campaign has offered a general outline of its field operation while insisting that it didn’t want to give the full details out of fear of tipping off the competition.

    On Saturday afternoon, the campaign offered a fuller memo than before with some top-line stats that (if accurate) underscore the historic nature of the ground-game in place. The campaign said it has registered 1,792,261 voters in key battleground states, “nearly double the number of voters the Obama campaign registered in 2008.”

    The memo also claims that the campaign has made 125,646,479 personal phone calls or visits up to this weekend (that doesn’t include things like robocalls and leaving literature on doors). If that number is accurate, then the campaign has contacted roughly one out of every 2.5 people in the entire country since the last election. It also blows away the 50 million voter contacts the Romney campaign has claimed, and that campaign included mailers left at doors.

    Not surprising. Given my point at #645 Thanks Huffington Post for backing up my statement. :)

    More here..

  50. 650
  51. 651
    Chris B says:

    Obama Has ‘Modest Lead’ Over Romney: Final Pew Poll.

    Barack Obama heads into Election Day having regained a “modest” 3-point lead over Mitt Romney, according to the final election poll by the Pew Research Center.

    The poll, released Sunday afternoon, gives Obama a 50-to-45 edge among likely voters after the 3 percent of undecided voters are divided between the candidates. Pew splits up the undecided after looking at the split of the respondents who express a lean toward one candidate, as well as calculations that predict which way a truly undecided voter will fall on Tuesday.

    Some voters, of course, have already cast their ballots — about a third, with 48 percent picking Obama and 46 percent choosing Romney, according to Pew.

    Working on the assumption that the polls are climbing for Obama and dropping for Mitt. On election day it could be closer to 4%. Throw in the under performance of the polls for Latinos particularly around Colorado, Nevada and Arizona. We are looking good. :)

    More here.

  52. 652
    Chris B says:

    Should Obama win control of Congress. A couple of the things he needs to do: fix the illegal immigrant problem and protect voting rights. Both of these will make it VERY hard for the current extreme Republican Party to get back in. The new Progressive Democrats would be able to do a lot of good that needs to be done. A lot of the centrists will be gone. No longer there to water down legislation.

  53. 653
    Chris B says:

    Perhaps the best news for Obama in the poll is the strength of his supporters’ enthusiasm. Eight in 10 Obama supporters say they’re voting for him rather than against Romney, while only 60 percent of Romney supporters say they’re primarily voting for him rather than against Obama.

  54. 654
    Chris B says:

    Tony Abbott’s $4.6b slug to business.

    THE Coalition’s tax policies will cost Australian businesses $4.57 billion in their first full year of operation, according to the Commonwealth Treasury.

    Prepared as Treasury attempts to come to grips with a suite of Coalition policies yet to be announced, the analysis includes only those to which it has publicly committed. Excluded are policies with a negative but uncertain impact on business, such as winding back the recent increase in the employee tax-free threshold from $6000 to $18,200.

    The three policies identified by Treasury are the Coalition’s commitment to impose a 1.5 per cent tax levy on big firms to fund paid parental leave, its decision to axe instant asset writeoff and other tax breaks for small business funded from the carbon tax, and its decision to axe the ability for businesses to “carry back” losses and obtain refunds for tax already paid funded from the mining tax.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbotts-46b-slug-to-business-20121104-28s8t.html#ixzz2BIPRdkX8

  55. 655
    Chris B says:

    Is Julia Gillard hitting her stride?

    Things seem to be getting harder for Tony Abbott – but it’s still too soon to be betting on an early election

    THE wonderful New York Times media columnist David Carr wrote recently of storyline bias – the great undeclared bias afflicting most working journalists, for whom the whiff of a story is better than smelling salts. Carr wrote his piece when the narrative turned in the US presidential race after Barack Obama’s listless performance in the first televised debate.

    The polls tightened – at least some pundits believed they did – and Mitt Romney looked credible. As Carr put it, ”keyboards clacked and adjectives flew because the poll numbers signalled that the last month of the campaign, which had been looking a bit dreary, was going to be a horse race, and reporters headed to the rail with renewed enthusiasm”.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/is-gillard-hitting-her-stride-20121104-28rys.html#ixzz2BIS5saMS

  56. 656
    Chris B says:

    In the event that President Obama wins reelection on Tuesday, Republicans have already found their scapegoat: Hurricane Sandy.

    Just days before Election Day, GOP pundits and prognosticators — and some within the Romney campaign — are roundly describing the devastating storm as the critical event that halted their candidate’s upswing in the polls, which give Obama a clear advantage in the electoral college math.

    “The hurricane is what broke Romney’s momentum. I don’t think there’s any question about it,” said Haley Barbour, a former Mississippi governor, RNC chairman and respected political strategist, on CNN’s “State of the Union” Sunday. “What happened was the news media absolutely blacked out any coverage of the issues.”

    Karl Rove made a similar argument to the Washington Post on Saturday.

    It wasn’t the Tea Party after all.

    More here…

  57. 657
    Chris B says:

    Florida County Overwhelmed by Early Voters
    The Miami Herald reports an attempt by the Miami-Dade elections department to let more people vote early Sunday “devolved into chaos after the department was overwhelmed with voters.”

  58. 658
    Chris B says:

    Early Voting May Doom Romney in Nevada.

    Jon Ralston: “I know the Romney folks and some RNC operatives believe they can still win, despite trailing by nearly 50,000 votes in early voting. But they need everything to break right — President Obama hemorrhages Democrats and independents vote in huge numbers for Romney, two things I do not see happening. It would be very difficult for Obama to lose Nevada, especially because I think more than two-thirds of the vote is in, so whatever turnout advantage the GOP has on Tuesday won’t be enough. Obama, 50 percent; Romney, 46 percent; others and ‘none of the above,’ 4 percent.”


  59. 659
    Chris B says:

    Polling companies accuracies. Assuming Pew is in the all other basket Obama can expect to pick up a bit more. I’ll still be happy with 4%.

  60. 660
    Chris B says:

    The Redskins Lost, Which Means That Mitt Romney Will Be President.

    Don’t worry about the polls; don’t worry about Nate Silver’s predictions; don’t worry about the candidates themselves. To know who’s going to win Tuesday’s presidential election, all you need to do is keep an eye on today’s Redskins-Panthers game.

    Damn! All my theories have gone out the window!

    More here….


  61. 661
  62. 662
    Chris B says:

    I have just picked up 3 political followers on Twitter. Democrats for Nevada. The Governor of West Virginia (a Democrat) and …………… wait for it…… Tony Abbott.
    Tony only has 202 followers. Snigger. Julia Gillard has 298,911

  63. 663
    Gaffhook says:

    Chris that is funny, Tony the fakir followed me about a week and a half ago. I refuse to follow him because it would help get his numbers up and i also don’t want to read his dribble.

    Hockey is another of the Aussie tea baggers on twitter. The minute anyone knocks his bullshit over with facts he tells them to grow up and disappears or blocks them.

  64. 664
    Chris B says:

    Tammy Baldwin: On the brink of victory?

    Wisconsin Rep. Tammy Baldwin has a great shot on Tuesday at becoming the first openly gay candidate elected to the United States Senate, and if the Wisconsin Democrat does end up beating her GOP opponent, former Gov. Tommy Thompson, it will be in no small part because, early on, the LGBT community recognized her potential to make history and decided to go all-in on her behalf.

    It’s been striking that Baldwin’s sexual orientation has been a non-issue on the campaign trail, but LGBT groups like the Human Rights Campaign, Gay and Lesbian Victory Fund and the new Lesbian Super PAC have provided what might prove a decisive boost, including millions of dollars in bundled campaign contributions from a roaring activist base.

    More here…

  65. 665
    Chris B says:

    #663 “I refuse to follow him because it would help get his numbers up and i also don’t want to read his dribble.” Me too. If you want to boost your numbers join NOH8. At least Tony won’t be on it.

  66. 666
    Chris B says:

    Tony must be REALLY desperate to want me.

  67. 667
    David Gould says:

    Chris B,

    Obama is not going to win control of Congress. A party needs 218 for a majority. The Republicans have a lock on 224 according to RCP, with 33 tossups. There is no way through that lock unless the polls are wildly wrong.

  68. 668
    Chris B says:

    House Election 2012: Republicans Still Favored To Retain Majority.

    After the Democrats lost 63 House seats to Republicans in the 2010 midterm elections, it seemed likely that they would gain back some of those seats in 2012, especially since many of them were in Democratic territory.

    However, two days out from Election Day, it appears that even in the best case scenario for Democrats, they are only poised to gain a net of about 10 seats, well short of the 25 they would need to take back the majority. In fact, it is possible that the composition of the House of Representatives in January will look nearly identical to how it does today.

    more here….

  69. 669
  70. 670
    David Gould says:

    I think that the Democrats will pick up around five. In 2016, they will have the chance to take the House back.

  71. 671
  72. 672
    Chris B says:

    People are standing in line for up to 8 hours in Florida to vote. Rick Scott’s voter suppression laws are NOT discouraging people. In fact election officials are finding ways around the laws. Like handing out voting cards at some shops. I suspect this will backfire on the Republicans. Rachael Maddow is giving it a lot of coverage.

  73. 673
    Chris B says:

    Over the counter voting is happening in Florida.

  74. 674
    Chris B says:

    Romney Ryan team split. The same as McCain Palin.

  75. 675
    Chris B says:

    Most of the Rachael Maddow show was about Republican cheating/voter suppression. Great finger pointing on Rachael’s behalf.

  76. 676
    Chris B says:

    Linda McMahon (Republican) Doorhanger: Vote For Obama … And Me.

    Connecticut Republican Senate nominee Linda McMahon has been telling voters lately that it’s okay to vote for President Obama as well as her. Now she’s taking it a step further — and getting about as far away from her own party’s nominee for president as she can — and actually urging voters to cast their ballots for Obama as well as in the final days of the campaign.

    More here…

  77. 677
    Chris B says:

    Scam PACs and scam polls are hurting the Republican Party GOP.

    Surprise! Rasmussen (a notoriously right-wing pollster) has discovered a “sudden” shift in the race that has Obama in a tie with Romney for the first time since just before the first debate.

    Rasmussen is using a tracking poll that uses a moving average over a three day period. So this is Rasmussen’s last chance to move his polls back in line with the other pollsters whose results have proved more accurate.

    Nate Silver did a long series of reports on Rasmussen in 2010, first publishing articles in Rasmussen’s defense, then attributing Rasmussen’s apparent GOP bias to a ‘house effect’, then finding that the analysis did not support a ‘house effect’ explanation, and finally concluding that whatever the reason, Rasmussen’s results in the 2010 mid-terms just stunk.

    There you are David. Does that explain it for you enough?


  78. 678
  79. 679
    Jen says:

    and thanks everyone for the congrats …

  80. 680
    Jen says:

    Ironic that the Climate change denialist party may bomb out becuase of a climate change induced event –

  81. 681
    Jen says:

    and that would be ‘because’ …

  82. 682
    Chris B says:

    Peter Reith predicted Obama would probably win by a larger majority than expected.

  83. 683
    Chris B says:

    680 Jen I missed that one. But I like it.

  84. 684
    Chris B says:

    Nearly all the red has gone from Nate Silvers chart. I hope Nate is spot on because of the skeptics. (Read Republicans).

  85. 685
    Chris B says:

    The closer to election day the more accurate the polls, According to one expert on the ED Show people he spoke to said the Obama campaign is more organised than 2008. The intense use of smart phones is my observation.

  86. 686
    Chris B says:

    685 Significantly more organised. Mitt Romney has been losing the seniors vote. He is gone from 19% to 9% that would be about the only major group he has a significant lead in.

  87. 687
    Gaffhook says:

    How can Obi lose with support like this?


  88. 688
    Chris B says:

    Brower (don’t know the correct spelling) county South Florida will probably equal if not surpass the 2008 vote.

  89. 689
    Chris B says:

    Nate Silver forecasting 307 to Obama. An extra 4 to Obama. from a couple of days ago.

  90. 690
    David Gould says:

    Chris B,

    Remember that this is the average forecast. That is why 303 is much more likely than 307. To get 307, Obama would have to win Florida and lose Ohio and Oregon, for example, or win North Carolina but lose Iowa and New Mexico.

    If you look at the way the states are likely to fall and start with 303 as the most likely, the next step up for Obama is adding Florida to get to 332. Then the next step is adding North Carolina, to reach 347.

    Going the other way, losing Virginia would cost Obama 13, putting him at 290. Then losing Colorado would put him at 281.

    There are of course combinations – Obama could win Florida but lose Virginia, for example, giving him 319.

    Or he could win Florida but lose Colorado, putting him at 323.

    Or he could win Florida but lose both of them, which would put him at 310.

    I think that those are the most realistic possibilities. I cannot see Obama winning North Carolina and losing Virginia, for example. Even winning Florida but losing Virginia is a bit of a stretch.

    So in my opinion the realistical possible spread of numbers are:

    281, 290, 303, 310, 319, 323, 332 and 347

    Note that all of them have Obama winning. ;)

    And 303 is my pick. As you think Obama is going to win Florida, 332 is your pick. But our view is only one state different, which might come down to one per cent of the Florida electorate one way or the other. In statistical terms, that is complete agreement. :)

  91. 691
    David Gould says:

    Something has gone whacky at 538. Something is wrong in the scenario analysis section, where is says as of 15:48 that Romney has an 88 per cent chance of winning the popular vote. Weird.

    And Florida has tipped for Obama, which might not be so weird. The projected vote share is 49.9 to 49.7, with a margin of error of 2.7.

  92. 692
    paddy says:

    David Gould
    I suspect there’s a drunken sub editor at 538 who’s reversed the figures. :lol:
    Meanwhile, it’s started.
    Via twitter.
    First votes are in in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire. 10 voters; 5 Obama, 5 Romney. It’s going to be a long day.

  93. 693
    Chris B says:

    Obama beat McCain 365 to 173. Romney is a far worse candidate. Yet its close.

  94. 694
    Chris B says:

    Interesting. From the Maddow Show. Pew research showed that McCain lost the Latino vote by 36%. The same poll has Mitt Romney losing the Latino vote by 39%. Latino Decisions shows the Latino vote just out at 49%.

  95. 695
    Chris B says:

    That’s 39 to 49% of a much bigger Latino population.

  96. 696
    HarryH says:


  97. 697
    HarryH says:

    hmm first post accepted for about a week…shrug.

    1 day to Repug meltdown.

    Saw Karl Rove on O’Reillys show earlier on Fox. When his turn to speak he went into automatic pilot saying all the right confident things…but when not speaking, his glumness shone through. It’s lost.

  98. 698
    Chris B says:

    Howard Fineman Huffington Post said the Obama campaigns Get Out The Vote looks super efficient. Compared to the Romney’s old style GOTV.

  99. 699
    Chris B says:

    697 HarryH Good to hear. HarryH Welcome aboard for the Final Countdown. :)

  100. 700
    Chris B says:

    USA Today Gallop poll. Men Obama 43% Romney 53%
    Women Obama 56% Romney 40% There are more women voters than men. With women, Latino’s (see poll above) and African Americans 99% for Obama. Why is it even close?