The Democrats currently control 51 seats in the 100 seat Senate. There are 35 senate elections occurring on November 4, 11 of which are considered competitive and 10 of those are currently held by the Republicans. The only Democratic seat in any danger is in Louisiana and is held by Mary Landrieu. The last poll conducted by a major polling organisation had her lead ballooning out to 53-37 on Aug 17, so she should now be safe.

The Republican seats that are almost certain to fall are Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia. Alaska is looking sure to fall as well, where Sen. Ted Stevens is not only likely to lose his seat, but is also at risk of crossing his Bridge only to discover that while Nowhere lacks basic amenities, it does have a jail cell. That gets the Democrats to 56.

The seats that are currently statistical ties are Minnesota and Oregon, with North Carolina’s last 3 polls being 48-42 Rep, 35-35 Tie and 51-45 Dem for a average of 42.67 each. In Mississippi Republican Roger Wicker has held a lead of about 48-43 for a couple of months while in Maine, Susan Collins looks sure to retain her seat.

Taking the optimistic view that the economic situation will help the Democrats, it therefore leaves the Senate line-ball on either 59 or 60. A more reserved outlook however would put the Democrats on 56.

There is also the question of Joe Lieberman. If the Senate becomes 56-44, there is a chance that he would be thrown out of the party. However if the result is 59-60 then the need to ensure his vote will see him remain. Lieberman will not leave himself, as that would lose him his positions on committees, including 3 chairmanships. The Democrat numbers also include Independent Socialist Bernie Sanders from Vermont, but there is not question that he will continue to causus with the Democrats.

With the current state of the polls and people’s interpretations of what the polls say is going to happen in 8 weeks varying by a large amount, I thought I would state just what is required to win in November, and what I personally believe will happen.

The Numbers

The results in 2004 were Kerry 251, Bush 286. The states that Obama can possibly take from McCain according to the polls are Colorado (9), Florida (27), Indiana (11), Iowa (7), Missouri (11), Montana (3), New Mexico (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Nevada (5), Ohio (20), South Dakota (3) and Virginia (13). The states McCain can possibly take are Michigan (17), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (21) and Wisconsin (10).

This gives Obama and McCain absolute maximums of 383 and 338 respectively.

Now to be more realistic about the candidate’s chances, the only state that McCain can reasonably believe he can take is New Hampshire. Obama on the other hand is almost guaranteed Iowa, while Colorado, Florida, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia are all very much in play.

This means that Obama’s likely maximum is 333 while McCain’s is 290.

Barack Obama needs 19 electoral votes more than Kerry to win, or 23 if McCain takes New Hampshire.

Meanwhile the Conventions continue. Obama’s speech, which received praise from all but the most biased of judges, now places McCain under a very powerful spotlight. If McCain does not produce a speech that is at least somewhat comparable to Obama’s, then his last chance to win the election by himself (as opposed to requiring Obama to make multiple huge gaffes) is most likely gone.