Voting is underway in the Republic Caucuses in Iowa. With less than 1% of the count Ron Paul lead the pack. With 3% of the count Rick Santorum took lead position. With 6% counted Rick Santorum held 1st. place with 1,229 votes just 25 votes ahead of Ron Paul, but just now the count clicked over to 11% and Ron Paul takes the lead, followed by Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, and Michele Bachmann.

Live results here.

UPDATE: Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum share dibs on first place, Ron Paul not far behind. Newt Gingrich in forth place closes the door on the Iowa circus leaving Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann alone in the dark.

Asylum seekers eventually become immigrants once processed-it is just the arrival and treatment while waiting for acceptance that is the cause for concern.

Just a few thoughts that are coloured by the fact that I, like many others, was born in a country that was occupied during WW2 and my father(in the resistance) was desperate to take us as far from Europe as possible.. With 4 children he only just scraped in by lying about his occupation as there was no demand for his skills. Once in NZ , the reality overwhelmed him at times but he could never return -lack of money, pride, children settled . While safe with a house and income , there was nevertheless huge grief at loss of family, language, culture, etc. hidden under pride and bravado. So even at the best of times, migration has a real downside.

At the time, Australian immigrants were sent direct into migrant camps whereas NZ allowed farmers to sponsor families directly, so there seems to be a history here of ‘grouping’, which, while supportive in many ways ,can also backfire when there are ill-feelings . By living separately in the community, we adopted the new country and language as our own much faster than my relatives who came here to Oz.

Have watched immigrants overseas in particular where they face discrimination and many spend much time looking over their shoulders, struggling with language often for a pittance not to mention the problems their children often face especially if their appearance is different. And resentment if they do too well. For every success there are many failures.

Criminals do slip through normal immigration channels anyway (Cosa Nostra, Chinese Triads, etc.) and the ‘political terrorist’ branding often depends on hue of government in power at the time (Habib now visiting Egypt is case in point) So I can’t understand why it takes so long to process residency applications other than it being used as a deterrent . ( Applies to UK, EU,etc. applicants as well .)

Unfortunately for Australia, too many want to come HERE- not anywhere else- and not just for refuge. Often those who really need to escape, can’t. Those on boats have paid agents often the last of their money ,as Jewish people did in the ’40s, and are not aware of the standard of boats they will be travelling on. I think children are often sent ahead as footholds, the same way the Chinese sent their kids here as students and then were able to immigrate under the family reunion scheme. I can’t blame people for wanting to improve their lives.

Immigration from Europe stopped once safety was re-established, living conditions improved and those who were unhappy in their new country spread the word of disappointment back home.

Now all these years later, while I can understand my father’s desperation and fear, I often wonder if he would have done it again, given a second chance. And he didn’t even risk life and limb on a leaky boat.

It would be interesting to know if any follow up has been done of those refugees who arrived in leaky boats and were eventually settled during the Howard years? Those women and children who were stuck behind razor wire, how are they now?

Legacy of a sad difficult problem, dangerously inflamed by one J.W. Howard.

On top of The Huffington Post Article I received this email from The Daily Kos.
We often don’t know what’s at stake in an election until it’s too late. Fortunately, Republicans in DC have been up front with us. (I know crazy, right?) Over the past month, they made it clear they will hand over Medicare to private insurance companies if they win the 2012 elections.
This is a good thing, because now we have another excellent reason to stand up and fight them. That’s why we’re sending John Boehner a cake, with the signatures of Daily Kos community members underneath it, thanking him for guaranteeing we will be fired up for 2012.
Click here to add your name to the petition that will appear underneath the thank you cake.
Here’s what happened:
On April 5, Paul Ryan released the Republican budget plan, which called for deep cuts to Medicare and the privatization of whatever is left.
On April 15, only two House Republicans voted against this budget.
On May 5, John Boehner said that Republicans wouldn’t push for this budget now because it can’t pass while Democrats control the Senate and the White House. However, Boehner made it clear that Republicans still strongly backed the plan.
That’s about as straight forward as Republicans are ever going to be. They are going to slash and privatize Medicare as soon as they control the House, the Senate and the White House.
The rowdy reception Republicans received at town halls last month was a sample of the blowback they are getting from this, but let’s give them another taste—in cake form! Click here to thank John Boehner for finally being honest about the Republican plan to destroy Medicare.
Keep fighting,
Chris Bowers
Campaign Director, Daily Kos

As well each of their potential presidential candidates has imploded shortly after they announced their decision to run. Well at least two have, and one announced he won’t run. As they self-destruct or withdraw, and they are slowly eliminating the potential candidates, one person is quietly sitting on the sidelines watching the carnage: Sarah Palin, my personal choice for the destruction of the Republicans. There is a LONG WAY to go yet. But after the let down of last year I am beginning to become more optimistic.

As I write this, something has clicked which had not previously occurred to me. My best hope for the senate, in my wildest dreams, would be to pick up two extra states over and above a swing of 5% on the 2008 elections for the Democrats to get anything done. Those states would preferably be the difficult to obtain ones of Arizona and Texas. Both states have retiring senators, and given the path of self destruction that the Republicans are currently on, (and will hopefully continue on till November 2012) the Democrats will nab them. They would then attain 62 seats in the senate, giving them a gap of 4 votes, not two as I had been wrongly assuming. This may be enough to bypass any Blue Dog block and enable a flood of legislation to pass. Meanwhile back in the real world, Walter Mitty says tell im ya dreamin. I am not a praying man, but till November 2012 I will be facing Mecca an awful lot.  I think another sex scandal would be really nice. About 3 months out from the election and running right up to Election Day.

The unpopularity of certain state governors will also help the Democrats, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Florida, Maine and Ohio in particular. Massachusetts has a BIG party machine behind it so Scott Brown should be swept away with the Democrat tide. The Democrats have a big voter registration. Just paint him Republican. Lets hope we get two strong liberals in Connecticut & Massachusetts would REALLY help the Democrats. No Blue Dogs allowed. Tip for the Democrats: if you are lucky enough to get 62 in the senate pass 2 years of popular things with the voters to wipe them out in 2014. It’s called governing by popularism.  Copying Australia’s National Broadband Network would be a great start.
United States Senate elections, 2012
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2012

Despite the US being quagmired in South Asia, the economy still in the hands of the same folks who brayed the nation astray ( “no,no, no, America will never be involved in a GFC”), infrastructure disintegrating, schools strangled for funds many of the population dumbed-down to “rhetoric by slogan”……… during SOTU, Americans are going to be exhorted by their Commander-In-Chief to hang in there for the greatest little nation that ever had the courage to bestow god’s gift of Democracy upon a world of ingrates who happen to be born in locations rich in resources or are of hegemonic significance.

Talking heads will analyse every POTUS utterance with the same breathless anticipation the economic press once paid to each Greenspan sigh. Comparisons will be made with SOTUs past pitched by Mt. Rushmore shortlistees, Kennedy, Clinton, and Reagan. In the land of the diminished attention span, by the weekend very few voters will remember what all the hoopla was about. Unless there is a wardrobe malfunction or some lawmaker cuts a stentorian fart at an inappropriate moment.

When SOTU 2011 is over and done, when all the confetti swept up and when the last legislator has exited The Hill, two unwinnable wars will grind on, 30 million Americans will continue to be spied upon by their govt., the Silent Spring will continue to scream, Gitmo and Abu Grahib and the other non habeas corpus hell-holes will remain open for business, John Boehner will sport a more toned-down tan and a once-great nation will discover that mah-jong can be every bit as fascinating as poker.

Conventional Wisdom and assorted Solomons of Psephology like  Nate “NYT” Silver predict Dems will lose the Congress and hold The Senate by a whisker. Seems a fair call, but wouldn’t be surprised if the Dems get done in the Senate too. We’ve all had our two bob’s worth over the possible result and the reasons for it. In the next day, many of those quetions and points of conjecture will be answered.

Call it a hunch , but after the way Fontleroy Wentworth was rolled from the tory top spot by the Monky Prince with the OO’s nod, I don’t believe the man who conjured Godwin Grech is too fond of Rupert OR Anthony! Some commentators see Malcs as being in the Death Seat. I don’t. Without the pressures of opposition leadership perpetually upon him, I think Malcolm Turnbull, one of the greatest bullshit artists to ever grace the hallowed halls of our Capital, has the patience and smarts to fuck both Abbott and Rupert.

Windsor and Oakeshott stated the NBN was a major factor in them going with Gillard.

The stakes couldn’t be higher. The control of the NEW medium— and thus the message— is up for grabs. Staggeringly until quite recently, the new paradigm came as a surprise to Rupert’s arse. As we’ve been witnessing, the day of the msm locusts is at hand. Hyper-alert,”trained” paparazzi are poised to swarm the first whiff of centre-leftist blood. Bewildered backbenchers have been told to cancel all travel and holiday plans. Klutzes are being coccooned; motor-mouths, muzzled. Good old-fashioned Team Play is flavour of the month in Party rooms.
We should be so lucky already. Let us rejoice in this year of the Team Player!

Kinda makes a guy wanna rush out and join a power-breakfast worship group.

How would Leo Strauss or Niccy Machiavelli, Gould of The Hill or Plouffe & Axelrod read this one?
Shall this government of ours, Ticsters, proceed to term or is the rule of Ranga I of Oz rife for Abbortion?

The impact going forward (Newtonian Politics) of the above celebrity fringe dwellers was boosted with appearances by assorted shit-kickers of marginal relevance. Feel the surge, Ticsters. The “swing is on” but it’s “too close to call”. From coast to sea-girt coast across our sunburnt land, cliffs are being pre-emptively cordoned-off from potential hangers. And be consoled men and women of Australia that as we go forward, no child will be left behind.  Touching, really, the certainty and comfort of cliches.

Who knows why the MSM did it. In the mood for a little revenue-raisin’ and funnin’ I guess. Citizen Rupert of Delaware, dear old Auntie and Fair(and balanced)fax are generally so even-handed in matters of national importance that the savaging of Julia “I’m a Ranga” Prole came as a complete surprise to many seasoned election watchers and more than a few political junkies.

Hugh Mackay reckons the last four weeks have been a beat-up monumentale.
Can’t disagree. Hugh, who has a finely honed professional schnoz for these things, can’t perceive the whiff of imminent national change. Next Sunday morning Australians will awaken to the reality of a female Prime Minister who is an unmarried atheist and we, preferentially, will have elected her over a bigoted neo-neanderthal who will comfortably retain his seat of Warringah.

Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard, backed by factional Labor Party warlords, has made a tilt at Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s leadership. Mr Rudd has told a press conference that earlier this evening Ms Gillard visited him to request a leadership ballot. Mr Rudd says the Labor caucus will vote on the party and Federal Government leadership tomorrow at 9:00am AEST.

Interesting times.

But what was the alternative? A return to Thatcherism under the Conservative Tory Party. In other words, a lose/lose situation.

Then bingo! Out of nowhere come the Liberal Democrats. Nick Clegg grabbed world headlines for his party as a result of a very good showing in the first of three debates, and polls now show that the Labour Party may be forced into a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. They have lost a little bit of momentum since the first debate, but there is still a good chance they could form a coalition with Labour.

The mainstream media, led by arch villain Rupert Murdoch, went berserk! Throwing all sorts of bullshit at the Liberal Democrats. Most of it was contrived. So much so that most of the general public didn’t buy it. May be Britain does have a real alternative to the two parties controlled by the establishment. I don’t know. But I would certainly love the chance to find out.

Nick Clegg is also very big on Europe. On that point alone Nick has won me. Nick has also said Brown must go, as part of the coalition deal. Two out of two ain’t bad.

Latest Guardian Poll.
Nick Clegg in Wikipedia.