The drama over the August break was largely predictable and for the most part has burnt itself out. The death of Ted Kennedy disrupted the news feed and it’s only in the last 24 hours that the talking heads have managed to refocus on the downside to throwing grandma off the train (or a Republican if that’s your preferred option).

In the meantime an article over on Politico has some interesting snippets of information. David Axelrod said in a telephone interview earlier today in response to questions about the healthcare reform agenda:

“We’re entering a new season, it’s time to synthesize and harmonize these strands and get this done. We’re confident that we can do that. But obviously it is a different phase. We’re going to approach it in a different way. The president is going to be very active.”

Politico goes on to suggest …

Obama’s specifics will include many of the principles he has spelled out before, and aides did not want to telegraph make-or-break demands. But Axelrod and others are making plain that Obama will assert himself more aggressively — a clear sign that the president will start dictating terms to Congress.

Thing is, an environment has been created wherein the public and standing members of the Senate have been calling for Obama to step up to the plate – to take the lead. It is difficult at this stage of the game to accuse Obama of ramming his own agenda down the throat of a hostile Senate. One could argue that this is the set piece in the game-set-match scenario. In support of this proposition I place before you a track record of Obama’s effectiveness in playing process, backed by the inside acumen of Rahm Emanuel, in a script penned by one David Axelrod.

Sept. 15 is the deadline that the White House gave Senate negotiators to seek a bipartisan bill. As Chris would say, ‘timing is everything’.

UPDATE: 3 SEP 2009

Obama is scheduled to speak to both houses of Congress on the 9 SEP 2009 during which it is being widely reported that he will spell out his expectations with respect to the shape of a final healthcare bill.

UPDATE: 09 SEP 2009

Barack Obama’s speech to the members of Congress.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/32773968#32766830

Tehran and Tegucigalpa are the two cities in question. In Tehran we witnessed a popular uprising against an election result that announced a landslide victory to the incumbent president, a brutal suppression, and the beginning of a political power struggle that will possibly continue for a number of years. Tegucigalpa in contrast was much more a political/industrial action to maintain a status quo, a pre-emptive action to circumvent what was perceived as a move by a rogue president to move the country to the far left.

Rahm Emanuel said [1] …

You never want a serious crisis to go to waste.

[1] YouTube: Rahm Emanuel on a serious crisis.

What he meant by that was that in crisis there is opportunity to do things you could not have done before. In Iran this principal translates into an opportunity for structural changes to the Islamic Republic of Iran, it’s relationships with the outside world, it’s position on human and moral rights, and the potential for the change to the ultimate power structure. But to be clear, the role of popular unrest in this scenario is just the trigger enabling a political opportunity. Over in Honduras the events unfolded with a pre-emptive political move, a reactive but unsuccessful counter-strike, the emergence of a mediation process, and a probably conclusion within which the exiled president will be returned to his position but stripped of any effective power, and the ultimate arbitrators will be the people of Honduras in a new election in November.

In the Honduras case, chances are that the people will get to vote in free and fair elections in just a few months from now. For Iran the situation is much less clear and projection much more uncertain.

What is common between Tehran and Tegucigalpa is that …

Crisis is the mother of political opportunity.