Reality kicked in on the 10th February 2007 when Obama announced his national campaign at the place where just some 149 years earlier, Abraham Lincoln delivered his “House Divided” speech. A primary campaign sometimes referred to as the ‘Never Ending Story’ took us through to the 3rd. June when Obama was nominated as the presumptive candidate therein setting the stage for the national campaign between Barack Obama and John McCain.

Today is Sunday the 2nd. November 2008, just a couple of days away from the most important political moment in my life. Within 72 hours we will be watching the numbers rolling in. But unlike every other election – the substance and the implications of this election are tectonic in nature.

Today we wait with bated breath.

Hillary – the Great White hope. Before this election got interesting I hoped and assumed that Hillary would trounce the republicans and we would see a woman in the White House. As an avowed feminist this was pleasing indeed and seemed to make this election a trailblazer for that reason alone. Anything to see the end of George the Imbecile, and what better way to turn the tables on neo-conservatism than to see a democrat woman as POTUS.

She is charismatic, confident, assured and knowledgeable. It turns out she is also rabidly ambitious and prepared to play dirty to that end. I was amazed at some of the stunts she pulled , the fake accents, the lies about her foreign affairs experience and worse, her preparedness to smear Obama when the Primary race got tight. Hillary believed that she had an entitlement to be back in The White House and she dragged it out to the bitter end, which was damaging for the party, and ultimately herself.

Then there’s the Stepford wives. Cindy McCain who has behaved like a handbag: an attractive accessory (if you like plastic), with not much content. She has conducted herself like all good wives from the 50’s should – well groomed, and silently supporting her man. Who knows what she really thinks? She represents a thankfully bygone era where a woman’s only public role was to be seen to support her man. Even when he has publicly humiliated her and called her a “Stupid C-nt”. If she had divorced him and spoken out against abuse of women she would be deserving of admiration. Instead she relies on his success for her identity. Not the kind of role model I want for my daughters.

And the First Lady – Laura . I actually feel sorry for her – after all she sleeps with George every night, so she is punished enough and in an act of sisterly solidarity I shall harm her no more.

My favourite anti-hero of this election is of course Sarah Palin. Not much I can say that hasn’t been said, and nothing anyone can say that betters Tina Fey. She will become a symbol of all that is loathed about the American Character – an arrogant, brash, ignorant, fundamentalist who does not have the intelligence to know that she isn’t. But she is also frightening – a juxtaposed “I can do anything” feminist persona overlaying a basic narrowness that is determined to undo some of the rights that women have fought and even died for – most particularly the right to choose whether to proceed with an unplanned pregnancy. This in my view makes her one of the most dangerous female politicians in the public arena today. Whatever your personal view on abortion is, it is not her right to impose hers on all American women. It’s bad enough that she’s doing it to Bristol.

Then onto the stage strides Michelle Obama. A woman of intelligence and style. A woman who clearly supports her husband but has her own views on matters of public policy. A mother and partner who has a successful career. A woman who can talk and think for herself. And an African American who must know first hand what it means to live in a country which has not reached it’s potential, but may in fact be about to. This is a role model for my daughters, and for all of us who aspire to see women in public life reflect the best of us.

Frankly – I wish she was VP.

The possibilities for excitement on stage today all hinge on McCain. To what do you ‘throw the switch’ in these circumstances, in which you are 8-10 points down nationally with 3 weeks to go? Vaudeville won’t help. He’s already tried that with Sarah the ventriloquists’ dummy. Perhaps you say, “We’ve got nothing to lose, let’s go for the goolies.”  If Rove and his ilk are now running things, that is probably what McCain will attempt. Even winning the talking points in the debate is not sufficient for him.

Of course, this debate could be as dull as the “Town Hall” dirge-fest if Obama gets to run it his way. He ‘won’ the last debate by simply appearing cool. It didn’t matter a jot what he said, providing it wasn’t ‘courageous’ or even stimulating. It was all about Presidential poise. Due to that success and the Dems lead in the polls, Obama is highly unlikely to deviate from the minimalist approach now.

The danger for Obama is if McCain manages to wreck the debate with accusations, taunts and dirt, and succeeds in getting Obama down in the gutter with him. The aim would be to diminish the Presidential aura that Obama now has, and that McCain certainly does not. But this is also dangerous for McCain. If the tactic fails, and Obama stays above the fray, McCain will appear to be nothing other than the stumbling, flailing old dope he is.

McCain has already said he will be raising the Ayers ‘connection’ in the debate – ho hum – but that may only be an indicator of a full-on effort to unbalance Obama and prevent him from staying ‘in charge’ during the event.

Unless something radical is done now, the game will just slip away for McCain. The issue is whether he graciously accepts the impending crushing loss, or uses a last opportunity to tip over the card table which could, in the Rovians grotty little worldview, just possibly even things up again. One thing is certain: McCain shaking hands with a war veteran in the audience and saying ‘My friends’ 50 times won’t do the job.

My prediction is of a 70% chance of fireworks from McCain, and if so, a 95% chance of Barry holding the high ground.

The only things that Captain McCain and I have in common are that we both sailed through more water than the average shark, in the Grey Funnel Line, in roughly the same era except for the fact that he made more of a career out of it than me. We served in the same waters at the time of the Vietnam War. We both probably sailed past more lighthouses than the average Chucky Six Pack has seen shithouses and both probably saw more Action Stations than Barbie Six Pack has seen railway stations. He was a “Birdie” and I was an electrician. We were of course in different Navies, he in The USN and me in the RAN. Now days the life of a sailor is considered as the ships being made of steel, the men made of wood, and it is all Wine, Women and Song, but way back then the ships were made of wood, the men of steel, and it was Rum, Bum and Gramophone Records.

(disclaimer ; without the bum)

Macca had a lot to live up to as his Father and his Grandfather were Four Star Admirals. The only step above Admiral in the USN is Fleet Admiral (the big Boss). His boss of course is the C.I.C. (Commander in Chief).

Young Macca no doubt had burning ambitions to be the equal of or go one step better than his Pop or Pop Pop.

He joined the Naval Academy and in 1958 graduated as an Ensign at number 894 of 899 graduates. Not exactly top of the class! He subsequently went into training and became a Birdie. His ability to crash planes and play up left a lot to be desired and one wonders if the records of his Poppys had some influence on his not being severely disciplined which may have ultimately affected his chances of promotion. When one reads his records, he has had some bailouts over the years, but his most important bail out was on 26 October 1967 when he was shot down over North Vietnam and became a POW. He was released on March 14th 1973. He had the ranking of Lieutenant Commander at the time. There would have been little chance of him receiving any promotions as a POW and this would have severely stalled his desire to make Admiral. He was given different assignments in US Naval Bases and after having only reached the rank of Captain resigned from the Navy on April 1st 1981. (April fool)

At this point in his life he most probably would have been an honest and upstanding member of the community. He subsequently decided on a political career and was elected to the House in 1982 and the Senate in 1986.

Over the period of the next 26 years he developed an uncanny knack of becoming involved with lots of the more shady characters that have graced the US political stables and the only way he was going to surpass his Poppys’ Admiral Status was to become C.I.C. He ran against the Imbecile for POTUS in 2000 and failed after he was swift boated USS Enterprised by the Imbeciles Neo Cons.

The downward spiral of the now Ancient Mariner with a whole flock of Albatrosses hanging round his neck gathered pace even quicker over the next eight years. He now has the GOP nomination for POTUS election in a few days time and this ex Upstanding Naval Officer has morphed into the exact opposite of what he once was and no amount of lies, deception and self flagellation is going to get him over the line on Nov 4th (US time). His Political record of voting with the Imbecile, the Keating five and his record on Veterans Affairs votes leaves only one solution …

Having never made the rank of Admiral he would never stand triumphantly on a “Bridge” to anywhere whilst one of the stinking rotting albatrosses, hanging round his neck, is his running mate in charge of a partially built “bridge” to nowhere

He should be Courts Martialled, found guilty, keel hauled, demoted, shackled to an oar on a Galley, and sent in search of the “Santa Maria”. When he finds it he can duly tell Chris C the lie that he was a USN Rear Admiral and bend over for him.

From a jolly Jack Tar to Jack Tarred. What a miserable shell of a man!

A gentle reminder to Cindy McCain that if she wants to get involved in bashing BO then she also better be ready for return of serve. Even though she looks like a fresh faced lady she has not got exacty what you call clean skin!

Oct. 18, 1999 | PHOENIX — GOP presidential candidate John McCain’s wife Cindy took to the airwaves last week, recounting for Jane Pauley (on “Dateline”) and Diane Sawyer (on “Good Morning America”) the tale of her one-time addiction to Percocet and Vicodin, and the fact that she stole the drugs from her own non-profit medical relief organization.

Permission to step ashore please Sir?

Look at what’s happening in the world right now. Today’s Crikey headline summed it up well: “Everywhere you look: Carnage!” They’re talking about the world economy – the response to the Bail Out has been less that bullish with the stock markets in the USA, Europe, Japan, Russia – hell let’s just say everywhere – heading south today.

Carnage could just as easily describe John McCain’s campaign. The two are linked like Siamese twins – and one of them has died. Actually, it’s more like Siamese triplets….the Bush Government, the world economy and the McCain campaign. One has died, one is dying and the third is stumbling around carrying the dead weight. That’s what happens with the conjoined – you just can’t get away from your siblings. So there’s Macca dragging around a corpse (Bush) and a near corpse (the economy). We won’t mention those other albatrosses (oh yes we will) - the wars he says could last a hundred years or his VP pick from hell.

And as the world around him panicswhat does the Siamese Triplet do? I said it earlier – to counter this threat McCain will start seriously addressing the issues of concern to the electorate, thus re-establishing his credibility and restoring confidence in his ability to govern with wisdom and compassion. NAH! Chucking mud is easier. So while Grandpa and Minnie indulge in shadow mud wrestling, the markets take yet another dive and the people’s confidence in McCains ability to lead plummets. McCain’s answer? More mud! Even if it’s old mud – Ayers, Rezko & Wright. Some’s gotta stick, right?? Yep John – but it’s stickin’ to you!”

Over at Time Online Mike Murphy wrote

“Palin should drop the braying attacks on Obama’s aging hippie bomber pals and start connecting to her cherished hockey moms on the one issue they are actually worried about; a quickly slowing economy. Chuck the hacky and ineffective negative ads and switch to man on the street spots with real people voicing their real doubts about Obama; too weak to stand up to Washington’s mighty special interest cartel or the newly empowered Democratic bosses of the Congress and Senate, too liberal to know how to fix the economy, too inexperienced to handle a dangerous world. On Tuesday, McCain should look into the camera and connect to the 80 million scared and worried Americans who will be watching him.”

RCP’s Jay Cost disagrees. He thinks McCain’s only option is to keep throwing the mud. “One party’s vicious smear is the other’s vital truth. That’s just the way it is” he opines today.

Jay is wrong. A panicked America isn’t listening. They want comfort, they want assurance and they want answers. McCain isn’t giving any of it it so they’re dropping the old guy like a stone. Look at the numbers! The map is a mass of blue. Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, New Mexico. Commenting on today’s polls 538’s Nate Silver says:

“Are John McCain’s negative attacks succeeding in eating into some of Barack Obama’s support? They certainly aren’t yet. In fact, Barack Obama has had perhaps his strongest individual polling day of the year…You can read these numbers as well as I can. Obama leads by 6 in North Carolina? 12 in Virginia? 7 in Florida? 3 in Missouri? Obviously, I am cherrypicking some of the more pro-Obama results here … but the point is, there are a lot of favourable results these days for Barack Obama.”

So if McCain looks tired and burdened going into the next debate. Sympathise. He’s carrying a lot of baggage. If he’s looking blue, it’s just the reflection of what’s going on all around him.

With the current state of the polls and people’s interpretations of what the polls say is going to happen in 8 weeks varying by a large amount, I thought I would state just what is required to win in November, and what I personally believe will happen.

The Numbers

The results in 2004 were Kerry 251, Bush 286. The states that Obama can possibly take from McCain according to the polls are Colorado (9), Florida (27), Indiana (11), Iowa (7), Missouri (11), Montana (3), New Mexico (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Nevada (5), Ohio (20), South Dakota (3) and Virginia (13). The states McCain can possibly take are Michigan (17), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (21) and Wisconsin (10).

This gives Obama and McCain absolute maximums of 383 and 338 respectively.

Now to be more realistic about the candidate’s chances, the only state that McCain can reasonably believe he can take is New Hampshire. Obama on the other hand is almost guaranteed Iowa, while Colorado, Florida, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia are all very much in play.

This means that Obama’s likely maximum is 333 while McCain’s is 290.

Barack Obama needs 19 electoral votes more than Kerry to win, or 23 if McCain takes New Hampshire.

Meanwhile the Conventions continue. Obama’s speech, which received praise from all but the most biased of judges, now places McCain under a very powerful spotlight. If McCain does not produce a speech that is at least somewhat comparable to Obama’s, then his last chance to win the election by himself (as opposed to requiring Obama to make multiple huge gaffes) is most likely gone.

No presidential candidate was breaking the 50 percent mark in mid-August polls in 2004 or 2000. Obama’s average lead of three to four points is marginally larger than both John Kerry’s and Al Gore’s leads then (each was winning by one point in Gallup surveys). Obama is also ahead of Ronald Reagan in mid-August 1980 (40 percent to Jimmy Carter’s 46). At Pollster.com, which aggregates polls and gauges the electoral count, Obama as of Friday stood at 284 electoral votes, McCain at 169. That means McCain could win all 85 electoral votes in current toss-up states and still lose the election.

Source: NYT: The Candidate We Still Don’t Know

With the Democratic Party Convention between the 25th. to the 28th. August, the Republican Party Convention between the 1st. to 4th. September, only then will the stage be set with just two months between the end of the Republican convention the 4th November (a.k.a. election day).

MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow provides a summation of the week that was.

In parallel, the planned Obama speech at the Brandenburg Gate is getting only background attention in the US homeland, and a lot more attention over in Germany. First of all we heard the news that the Bush Administration were throwing a wet blanket on the idea, and since then we have seen a number of differing opinions across Germany’s media reflecting a fight between their respective right and left wings of government.

In the meantime VP speculation has been ripe over at the TPM with news about Hagel and Reed joining Obama on the upcoming Iraq visit, and rumors that Hillary Clinton was under consideration for vice president (although apparently Bill may be a problem).

You have to admit, this is almost as good as The West Wing, Season 7.

The normally voluble Senator John McCain found himself at a loss for words Wednesday when he was asked aboard his campaign bus on its way to Portsmouth, Ohio, whether he thought it was fair that some health insurance companies covered Viagra but not birth control.

“I don’t usually duck an issue,” he said, “but I’ll try to get back to you.”

Link (subscription required).