Look at what’s happening in the world right now. Today’s Crikey headline summed it up well: “Everywhere you look: Carnage!” They’re talking about the world economy – the response to the Bail Out has been less that bullish with the stock markets in the USA, Europe, Japan, Russia – hell let’s just say everywhere – heading south today.

Carnage could just as easily describe John McCain’s campaign. The two are linked like Siamese twins – and one of them has died. Actually, it’s more like Siamese triplets….the Bush Government, the world economy and the McCain campaign. One has died, one is dying and the third is stumbling around carrying the dead weight. That’s what happens with the conjoined – you just can’t get away from your siblings. So there’s Macca dragging around a corpse (Bush) and a near corpse (the economy). We won’t mention those other albatrosses (oh yes we will) - the wars he says could last a hundred years or his VP pick from hell.

And as the world around him panicswhat does the Siamese Triplet do? I said it earlier – to counter this threat McCain will start seriously addressing the issues of concern to the electorate, thus re-establishing his credibility and restoring confidence in his ability to govern with wisdom and compassion. NAH! Chucking mud is easier. So while Grandpa and Minnie indulge in shadow mud wrestling, the markets take yet another dive and the people’s confidence in McCains ability to lead plummets. McCain’s answer? More mud! Even if it’s old mud – Ayers, Rezko & Wright. Some’s gotta stick, right?? Yep John – but it’s stickin’ to you!”

Over at Time Online Mike Murphy wrote

“Palin should drop the braying attacks on Obama’s aging hippie bomber pals and start connecting to her cherished hockey moms on the one issue they are actually worried about; a quickly slowing economy. Chuck the hacky and ineffective negative ads and switch to man on the street spots with real people voicing their real doubts about Obama; too weak to stand up to Washington’s mighty special interest cartel or the newly empowered Democratic bosses of the Congress and Senate, too liberal to know how to fix the economy, too inexperienced to handle a dangerous world. On Tuesday, McCain should look into the camera and connect to the 80 million scared and worried Americans who will be watching him.”

RCP’s Jay Cost disagrees. He thinks McCain’s only option is to keep throwing the mud. “One party’s vicious smear is the other’s vital truth. That’s just the way it is” he opines today.

Jay is wrong. A panicked America isn’t listening. They want comfort, they want assurance and they want answers. McCain isn’t giving any of it it so they’re dropping the old guy like a stone. Look at the numbers! The map is a mass of blue. Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, New Mexico. Commenting on today’s polls 538’s Nate Silver says:

“Are John McCain’s negative attacks succeeding in eating into some of Barack Obama’s support? They certainly aren’t yet. In fact, Barack Obama has had perhaps his strongest individual polling day of the year…You can read these numbers as well as I can. Obama leads by 6 in North Carolina? 12 in Virginia? 7 in Florida? 3 in Missouri? Obviously, I am cherrypicking some of the more pro-Obama results here … but the point is, there are a lot of favourable results these days for Barack Obama.”

So if McCain looks tired and burdened going into the next debate. Sympathise. He’s carrying a lot of baggage. If he’s looking blue, it’s just the reflection of what’s going on all around him.

… you seem to have the impression that Americans are interested in real issues when they are showing every indication of being a nation in complete denial.

You’ve hit the nail on the head. I think most Americans have trouble facing reality. The worse things get, the more they want to escape.

The Republicans know this, so they gave the people Sarah Palin as the ultimate distraction. Now Americans don’t have to confront the hard stuff anymore in this election. They can talk about whether Palin was the right pick for VP. They can dream about the small-town hockey Mum suddenly making the big time. They can debate whether Bristol Palin should have kept her baby or not and what led her to a teen pregnancy. They can wonder whether Palin would be someone they could have a coffee or beer with.

Sure, there are plenty of people hurting in a declining economy, but for those who aren’t, they now have Palin to occupy them rather than having to be concerned for their fellow citizens or the overall decline in their country’s international standing.

This is a country that has lost its way under the Republican leadership as people were continually frightened into voting for the Republicans. Now that the Republicans have made the world seem so scary, they are exploiting American’s desires for escaping that world… no more big issues, no more things to worry about, just a fascination with Sarah Palin. The MSM have complied. The alternative media has complied. And now we are two weeks into this great scam and Americans are still chugging along besotted in some way with Palin, either loving or hating her.

The Republicans will be trying to make the most of this. She has now had one major interview. Expect them to hide her a way for a little, then bring her back out for another, anything to stretch it out until election day, drip feeding the country with bits and pieces of Sarah Palin.

The only way Obama can turn this around is to stir Americans in an emotional way, a DEEP emotional way. If he simply bangs on about the issues, people will keep resorting to the Palin distraction. He needs to reignite his message of hope and change so people can shift from escapism to a future dream. It is still about avoiding the here and now, which many Americans are inclined to do, but at least Obama can take them to a place that can inspire something better in them and in future generations rather than seeking solace in a temporary distraction.

Meanwhile the Conventions continue. Obama’s speech, which received praise from all but the most biased of judges, now places McCain under a very powerful spotlight. If McCain does not produce a speech that is at least somewhat comparable to Obama’s, then his last chance to win the election by himself (as opposed to requiring Obama to make multiple huge gaffes) is most likely gone.