Never Again.

Never Again must we allow the politics of inertia to lull us into a stupor or sense of helplessness that has allowed the violations of all the tenets of justice and freedom that the so-called Developed World have the responsibility both to uphold and to encourage those with less resources and fewer opportunities.

Never Again must we stand by and allow our leaders to take us into the darkness that has led to the death of hundreds and hundreds of thousands of innocents through war, environmental assault, and sheer indifference and neglect.

And Never Again must we allow ourselves to become so culpable in the loss of what we are so privileged to have in our lives – freedom, the right to choose our government, and the responsibility to do so wisely and with a broad vision for all.

Welcome Obama – we are watching you with bated breath, and we will stand beside you when you falter if we know that you are at times understandably overwhelmed by the enormity of what you face, but that you are continuing to try and face the immeasurable responsibility you have been handed.

And George Bush… may you rot in hell.
You should have had the decency to just admit that you were never up to the task.

Welcome to our first Politic 101 book discussion everyone! Let’s kick things off lightly with a couple of general observations about DHw/J.  Been reading the Australian edition which was published in 2007:

First, Team Obama convinced enough rednecks in Virginia to act on “This year we’re votin’ fer the nigraahhh.” to deliver VA’s 13 ECVs to BHO. This is a remarkable achievement as VA was the former Capital of the ante-bellum South. The prospect of a President Sambo Macaca was so far off former GOP VA Senator George Allen’s radar as short a time ago as the 2006 Mid-Terms, that Georgie Boy thought he could publicly slag a “darkie” at a deep woods rally and expect to get only votes and kudos from such a blatant act of bigorty. But bigotted George was too much for “decent” Virginians in 2006 and the voters shunned him like a political leper. And justly so! Two weeks before E-Day 2008 in neighbouring Ohio— which Obama also won;

“The Hardest Vote,” by George Packer (October 13, 2008) wrote:

Recently, people in Ohio have told me that voters there have started to shift toward Obama. Gabe Kramer, of the S.E.I.U., said that, after the first Presidential debate and amid the financial crisis, union members seemed to find Obama’s ideas and manner more persuasive than before. But even if Obama wins he will still have to overcome the deep skepticism of struggling Americans

Then came E-Day;

Table Source: New York Times

Secondly, Joe Bageant is writing about what he knows and loves; his people and his place and how his people and his patch have been systematically oppressed and degraded over the course of his lifetime. After thirty three years in the profession, many as a “big city” editor, Joe is an extraordinarily good writer with an ace raconteur’s turn with a story and a fine ear for dialogue:

From page 95 …

Nobody stands up for people like her (Nance) unless a few of them get crushed under a seam of coal, thereby providing the required emotional grist for the nightly news. Only right wing politicians appealing to their religious prejudices and ignorance on behalf of big money pay any attention to them. If you hang around real working class places very long,……you’ll see that decent working folks seldom talk politics or current events except during the final weeks of an electon and when prompted by lefty agaitators like me or grassroots neocon Republican operatives—people who understand that the four cornerstones of the American political psyche are:

1. emotion substituted for thought
2. fear
3. ignorance, and
4. propaganda

… to me the most profound sort of blindness in heartland America is born of innocent trust in our system

So when American/Virginian rednecks* are politically inattentive by design and they are force-fed Limbaugh and Fox as media staples, it is all the more remarkable that Obama swung 7.2% of voters, (most of them rednecks, I venture) to vote for him a few short months after HRC whupped him in the VA Dem primaries, and after the saturation coverage of Obi’s crack about rednecks “clinging to guns and religion” when they were “under stress”.

Anyway, there’s a great deal to discuss, mes amis, so it’s over to you.

*Bageant differentiates between rednecks and “white trash”. Rednecks will never take a “hand-out” from anyone whereas “white trash” will accept help from where ever it comes.

Reality kicked in on the 10th February 2007 when Obama announced his national campaign at the place where just some 149 years earlier, Abraham Lincoln delivered his “House Divided” speech. A primary campaign sometimes referred to as the ‘Never Ending Story’ took us through to the 3rd. June when Obama was nominated as the presumptive candidate therein setting the stage for the national campaign between Barack Obama and John McCain.

Today is Sunday the 2nd. November 2008, just a couple of days away from the most important political moment in my life. Within 72 hours we will be watching the numbers rolling in. But unlike every other election – the substance and the implications of this election are tectonic in nature.

Today we wait with bated breath.

Firstly to those unfamiliar with him, Richard Nixon can best be described as a political endgamer, a high-powered version of John Howard. He saw every issue in terms of how to exploit his opponents. He was dog-whistling and wedging long before the terms were invented. In the post-war period he entered Congress and quickly became a member of the House Un-American Activities Committee (HUAC). The Republicans were especially keen on such groups and nonsense like Loyalty Oaths to undermine the dominance of the New Deal Democrats, who had become the natural party of government.

Although less sensationalist than Senator Joe McCarthy’s wild allegations about communists taking over the State Department, HUAC was arguably much more effective. Nixon, perhaps because he was a Californian, realized the immense publicity that HUAC could get by focusing on Hollywood: the stars, the writers, the directors. And that’s who they went after. HUAC got ready cooperation from the owners and tycoons of Hollywood. Many were Jewish, and having just witnessed the Holocaust were very anxious to prove their loyalty and patriotism.

Having Hollywood as the focus guaranteed almost daily publicity. There were just enough neo-leftists around Hollywood in the Depression-era 30s to have the Republicans sniffing for blood. Among other sins, many were in trouble for expressing sympathy or support for the Spanish Republicans during the civil war in Spain. The question, “Are you now, or have you ever been, a member of the Communist party?” was especially loaded.

Although the Constitution in theory protected these people, non-cooperation led to charges of perjury and to the owners banning them from work. Many had to leave the industry or the country. Even those who cooperated lost friends and self-respect by public confessions. It was a win-win for Nixon, paving the way for his elevation to the Senate and then to the Vice-Presidency.

In the early 60s Nixon suffered setbacks. He lost the 1960 Presidency to JFK, and two years later failed to win the Governorship of California. But like Howard much later, he learned from mistakes and adjusted his game.

He saw a great opportunity in the 60s with the Civil Rights movement and LBJ’s Great Society. With LBJ firmly committed to it (something even FDR shied away from) the attack on institutionalised racism would almost certainly lead to a reaction against the Democrats, who until then ruled the South. In addition, the fundamentalist religions of the mid-West and the South felt threatened by the anti-censorship charge of the 60s and the general sexual, feminist and black power liberation movements.

Nixon could see a new Republican hegemony from the remaining racist elements of the South and the conservative religious movements. These had never quite got over their defeat in the Monkey Trials of 1925 which led to the overrule of state laws banning the teaching of evolution in science. In origins, they too were often Democrats. So it was a big alliance Nixon was planning. Little wonder he made Billy Graham his chaplain when he did make it to the White House. Nixon mistrusted the old Eastern Establishment, despite the Kissinger alliance, and for that reason forged new alliances in the West – what was to become known as the Sun Belt areas.

The Watergate scandal put a temporary stop to the Republican dominance but not to the alliance pattern Nixon forged, which was capitalised on by Reagan and the Bushes. The Democrats realized too late the bind they were in. Their only counter-attack was to promote popular Southerners as their nominees. So, loosely based on the Nixon strategy the Republicans have had the President for 28 of the last 40 years. I know that the last 8 is a lot more questionable after the fiddles in Florida in 2000 (abetted by the Supreme Court) and Ohio in 2004. But it was Democrat ineptness that led to the contests being close in the first place. Carter and Clinton were treated like usurpers and only Clinton, among all the Democrat nominees was prepared to call their bluff.

The alliance, diverse as it was, made it easier for the Republicans to define what they were against. So liberalism became a dirty word; scholarship and scientific enquiry was wasteful; any government spending, except on armaments or business was likewise wasteful; climate change warnings were alarmist and interfering in God’s prerogatives. One other Nixon legacy was to manipulate foreign affairs activities for domestic adversarial politics. He sent word to North Vietnam to delay acceptance of peace talks in order to stymie LBJ. Later, Reagan aides would do similar in talks over the Irianian Embassy hostage crisis, leading to Carter looking helpless.
One area where Nixon differed from his New Right successors was in economic and financial management. Nixon was relatively prudent. The others, especially Reagan and Bush II, have been utterly reckless – no doubt egged on by the Sun Belt equivalent of the White Shoe Brigade, and the Pentagon-related industries.

It should not be forgotten that the Reagan Administration’s first effort at deregulation led to paper money merchants getting hold of savings and credit union groups assets and siphoning them off. Had it not been for Depression-era federal government guarantees for small peoples savings in such institutions a lot of people would have lost their life savings and retirement funds. As it was, the government picked up the tab for these losses, at enormous taxpayer cost. Increasing military spending by large amounts while reducing the wealthy’s tax payments will never help balance budgets. No wonder Bush I, who had some semblence of responsibility, failed so badly. It was too big a lemon he was stuck with.

Newt Gingrich deserves the prize for brazen hypocrisy when he demanded that Clinton present a balanced budget or face impeachment. Clinton, of course, did just that and ran rings around them in economic management. I often think the bile directed at Clinton was because (like Keating in Australia) he did the things the Republicans only talked about.

So we come to the Bush II regime. It seems clear now that in terms of incompetence, arrogance, corruption and dishonesty this regime is setting alltime benchmarks. The Nixonian adversarialism has been passed on to Rove, and has become even more vicious.

With such a consistent record for anti-intellectualism, it is not so surprising that foreign policy, at least for a very long time, should pass to the neocons and other crazies. It is also hardly surprising that this lot should approve torture of suspects. There is not enough scope for reasoned argument, and anyway torture seemed to work in “24”.

9/11 also warrants mention. At the time of the attacks I think I counted up to 7 agencies that failed then. Given the distance of agencies from the Administration, Team Bush need not necessarily be blamed. But surely these failings should have been of greater interest than the audacity of the crime. But no, all effort is already turned to a revenge attack. Rove and co wanted to turn attention away from any question of neglect. In addition, others had seen an opportunity. Here was a bogey to replace Communism. Hence the War on Terror. The Anthrax Scare (which did start from a Langley Virginia batch) was used to whip up anti-Middle Eastern feelings. In the general welter of confusion, Saddam could be linked without many thinking it was odd. Other issues in that sorry saga are too lengthy to mention here. Unlawful detention, rendering, torture, war profiteering – the list goes on.

Kirri has given better accounts of the economic train wreck of the Bush II regime. I am more interested in the remnants of that Nixon alliance. On the New Money side, many like Enron have bitten the dust and their ringleaders face charges or convictions. The most galling thing is that so many of these executives still have exorbitant packages, unconscionably siphoning off shareholders, employees and retirees funds. It is a disgrace that politicians and media alike have ignored this pillaging for so long.

The Bible Belt has made little headway with Creative Design, although under Bush they have manged to slow down stem cell research and so on. The Republicans have not delivered them much and it is not so surprise that some are at last defecting. It is similar with the old White Privilege South. They’ll still be around, but their influence is waning – as is the Republicans.

That alliance is not what it was. Barack deserves most credit for overcoming those barriers. He has had wide appeal and he has used the new weapons of the net well. We should not forget Howard Dean, who first attempted to use the net and appeal to the disengaged in 2004. He didn’t overcome the Democratic machine then, but he paved the way to how entrenched interests could be overcome.

As to Hillary, it should be clear by now that the most successful method for overcoming both the alliance and the ‘play safe’ Democrat machine attitudes, was as Barack did: appeal to those unengaged or alienated from the process. He did this brilliantly.

Here’s one final thought. Dubya’s often given the impression that he was ‘called by God’ for a mission. Perhaps it is true. The Republicans look headed for annihilation. Given the Nixonian legacy, and the end (at least for now) of Fear and Loathing that is not a bad result. It is a pity it took the wrecking of the economy and Mesopatamia, but the Lord works in mysterious ways.

Hillary – the Great White hope. Before this election got interesting I hoped and assumed that Hillary would trounce the republicans and we would see a woman in the White House. As an avowed feminist this was pleasing indeed and seemed to make this election a trailblazer for that reason alone. Anything to see the end of George the Imbecile, and what better way to turn the tables on neo-conservatism than to see a democrat woman as POTUS.

She is charismatic, confident, assured and knowledgeable. It turns out she is also rabidly ambitious and prepared to play dirty to that end. I was amazed at some of the stunts she pulled , the fake accents, the lies about her foreign affairs experience and worse, her preparedness to smear Obama when the Primary race got tight. Hillary believed that she had an entitlement to be back in The White House and she dragged it out to the bitter end, which was damaging for the party, and ultimately herself.

Then there’s the Stepford wives. Cindy McCain who has behaved like a handbag: an attractive accessory (if you like plastic), with not much content. She has conducted herself like all good wives from the 50’s should – well groomed, and silently supporting her man. Who knows what she really thinks? She represents a thankfully bygone era where a woman’s only public role was to be seen to support her man. Even when he has publicly humiliated her and called her a “Stupid C-nt”. If she had divorced him and spoken out against abuse of women she would be deserving of admiration. Instead she relies on his success for her identity. Not the kind of role model I want for my daughters.

And the First Lady – Laura . I actually feel sorry for her – after all she sleeps with George every night, so she is punished enough and in an act of sisterly solidarity I shall harm her no more.

My favourite anti-hero of this election is of course Sarah Palin. Not much I can say that hasn’t been said, and nothing anyone can say that betters Tina Fey. She will become a symbol of all that is loathed about the American Character – an arrogant, brash, ignorant, fundamentalist who does not have the intelligence to know that she isn’t. But she is also frightening – a juxtaposed “I can do anything” feminist persona overlaying a basic narrowness that is determined to undo some of the rights that women have fought and even died for – most particularly the right to choose whether to proceed with an unplanned pregnancy. This in my view makes her one of the most dangerous female politicians in the public arena today. Whatever your personal view on abortion is, it is not her right to impose hers on all American women. It’s bad enough that she’s doing it to Bristol.

Then onto the stage strides Michelle Obama. A woman of intelligence and style. A woman who clearly supports her husband but has her own views on matters of public policy. A mother and partner who has a successful career. A woman who can talk and think for herself. And an African American who must know first hand what it means to live in a country which has not reached it’s potential, but may in fact be about to. This is a role model for my daughters, and for all of us who aspire to see women in public life reflect the best of us.

Frankly – I wish she was VP.

The possibilities for excitement on stage today all hinge on McCain. To what do you ‘throw the switch’ in these circumstances, in which you are 8-10 points down nationally with 3 weeks to go? Vaudeville won’t help. He’s already tried that with Sarah the ventriloquists’ dummy. Perhaps you say, “We’ve got nothing to lose, let’s go for the goolies.”  If Rove and his ilk are now running things, that is probably what McCain will attempt. Even winning the talking points in the debate is not sufficient for him.

Of course, this debate could be as dull as the “Town Hall” dirge-fest if Obama gets to run it his way. He ‘won’ the last debate by simply appearing cool. It didn’t matter a jot what he said, providing it wasn’t ‘courageous’ or even stimulating. It was all about Presidential poise. Due to that success and the Dems lead in the polls, Obama is highly unlikely to deviate from the minimalist approach now.

The danger for Obama is if McCain manages to wreck the debate with accusations, taunts and dirt, and succeeds in getting Obama down in the gutter with him. The aim would be to diminish the Presidential aura that Obama now has, and that McCain certainly does not. But this is also dangerous for McCain. If the tactic fails, and Obama stays above the fray, McCain will appear to be nothing other than the stumbling, flailing old dope he is.

McCain has already said he will be raising the Ayers ‘connection’ in the debate – ho hum – but that may only be an indicator of a full-on effort to unbalance Obama and prevent him from staying ‘in charge’ during the event.

Unless something radical is done now, the game will just slip away for McCain. The issue is whether he graciously accepts the impending crushing loss, or uses a last opportunity to tip over the card table which could, in the Rovians grotty little worldview, just possibly even things up again. One thing is certain: McCain shaking hands with a war veteran in the audience and saying ‘My friends’ 50 times won’t do the job.

My prediction is of a 70% chance of fireworks from McCain, and if so, a 95% chance of Barry holding the high ground.

The Democrats currently control 51 seats in the 100 seat Senate. There are 35 senate elections occurring on November 4, 11 of which are considered competitive and 10 of those are currently held by the Republicans. The only Democratic seat in any danger is in Louisiana and is held by Mary Landrieu. The last poll conducted by a major polling organisation had her lead ballooning out to 53-37 on Aug 17, so she should now be safe.

The Republican seats that are almost certain to fall are Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia. Alaska is looking sure to fall as well, where Sen. Ted Stevens is not only likely to lose his seat, but is also at risk of crossing his Bridge only to discover that while Nowhere lacks basic amenities, it does have a jail cell. That gets the Democrats to 56.

The seats that are currently statistical ties are Minnesota and Oregon, with North Carolina’s last 3 polls being 48-42 Rep, 35-35 Tie and 51-45 Dem for a average of 42.67 each. In Mississippi Republican Roger Wicker has held a lead of about 48-43 for a couple of months while in Maine, Susan Collins looks sure to retain her seat.

Taking the optimistic view that the economic situation will help the Democrats, it therefore leaves the Senate line-ball on either 59 or 60. A more reserved outlook however would put the Democrats on 56.

There is also the question of Joe Lieberman. If the Senate becomes 56-44, there is a chance that he would be thrown out of the party. However if the result is 59-60 then the need to ensure his vote will see him remain. Lieberman will not leave himself, as that would lose him his positions on committees, including 3 chairmanships. The Democrat numbers also include Independent Socialist Bernie Sanders from Vermont, but there is not question that he will continue to causus with the Democrats.

The Republicans.

It doesn’t matter that they have the most corrupt US government ever, the war in Iraq doesn’t matter. The “200 year old man” running for president doesn’t matter. Neither does the hillbilly running for VP. Forget about Hurricane Katrina, the health care in a mess, returned soldiers being in squalid conditions in hospitals. None of that matters. It’s the economy stupid! If you didn’t hear that, it’s THE ECONOMY STUPID!

To sum it all up, I give you Obama’s latest ad, which I couldn’t have said better.

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/whoadvises_ad/

In the 2004 US Presidential Election G. W. Bush gained 286 Electoral College Votes (ECVs); John Kerry, 252. To become POTUS a Party’s Nominee must gain 270 ECVs. Each state has a number of electors equal to the number of its Senators and Representatives in the United States Congress which is proportional to the population as determined through a census taken every 10 years. CA for example has 55 ECVs, Nth Dakota, 3. Each State awards its ECVs on a winner take all basis of the popular vote except Maine and Nebraska which have minor idiosyncratic variations. To hardcore Bludgers, these things are “known knowns”.

State Governors have the executive power (which is an inordinate amount of clout) to determine how the popular vote is tallied in their States, eg, CO (Democratic Governor) now has all pencil and paper ballots, while FL (GOP Gov.) has widespread (ab)use of poorly scrutinised Diebold receiptless computer-touchscreen voting machines.

Diebold incidentally, make ATMs which produce receipts upon request but they just haven’t been able to employ that good ‘ol American know-how to manufacture a voting machine that would likewise supply a paper trail. Funny about that. Paper trails come in mighty handy in the event of disputed returns. As things stand, the word of the computer programmers is final. Verifiable democracy, it would seem, can take a hike! Diebold Corporation are major donors to the GOP, but that’s probably just a coincidence. Diebold computers tallied the vote in OHIO 2004 and the State was ruled by GOP Goveror, Bob Taft (ref. 20 Amazing Facts About Elections).

Had Kerry won OHIO’s 20 ECVs in 2004, he would have become POTUS.

Karl Rove has recently been subject to a surge of mentorial pride. Mr. Rove is former W.H. Deputy CoS and “architect” of President G.W. Bush’s electoral success. He presently is an artful dodger of Congressional subpoenas concerning the “letting go of” Federal Judges who, in Karl’s opinion, were not onside with his former master’s aims and objectives regarding the practicalities of maintaining the upper hand in matters of day to day rule.

Karl’s understudy, Steve “Schmuckens” Schmidt, has displayed prodigious talent already as a “draughtsman”. Mr.Schmidt has recently become prospective GOP Nominee John McCain’s chief campaign advisor. It would not be unreasonable to assume that Mr. Schmidt would be willing to employ all the wiles of his mentor in order to have Senator McCain “elected” POTUS.

Not unreasonably, with respect of the abovementioned developments, there are some amongst us who smell a rat and I am unabashedly one of those people. However, the political landscape has altered rather dramatically since 2004. Latest polling suggests that while the GOP is not likely to gain ANY States in Nov. 2008, Dems have excellent prospects in CO IN IA MT NM OH and VA (ref. electoral-vote.com). Of these States, all except Indiana have Democratic Governors, therefore the prospects of Schmidt & Co pulling an “OHIO 04” in those States are somewhat diminished (ref. Wikipedia: US Governors Map).

Despite the obvious fraud potential in Diebolds’ systems (ref. Lou Dobs on Dibold), the Democratic Leadership Council in its wisdom persisted in having the Dodgies from Diebold tally the N.H. primary which, contrary to all pre and exit polls, produced a stunning campaign-sustaining victory for “Beltway to her Bootstraps” HRC, and not the upstart Junior Senator from Illinois, BHO.

Just another coincidence, I guess.

There are many other methods of rorting US elections such as compulsory carrying of ID for voters in Indiana, and the methods addressed in the Wikipedia: 2004 US Presidential election controversy notes. In preparing this post I read literally scores of articles but had to stand in awe of the jounalistic and research skills of Maureen Farrell. For Bludgers interested in the subject, her work: “Another Rigged Election, The Elephant in the Booth”, is outstanding. Finally, despite the unfairness in our electoral system such as disproportionate Senate representation, our way of electing our representatives by the straightforward marking of paper ballots with a pencil seems to be comparatively tamper-proof.