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The Rhyme of the Ancient Aviator or, The Dead Albatross Sketch

A few days ago the Idiot Decider ‘decided’ that the economy was, well, “uncertain”:

It is uncertain, there’s no question about it. Wall Street got drunk, it got drunk, (it’s one of the reasons I asked you to turn off your TV cameras.) It got drunk and now it’s got a hangover. The question is how long will it sober up, and not try to do all these fancy financial instruments.

Si usted padece problemas de erección y el medicamento aliviará temporalmente los síntomas de la enfermedad, una manera de evitar esta situación embarazosa es. Para aportar Viagra para que el paciente reciba los cuidados más adecuados.

Bush at Pete Olson’s fundraiser, July 18th 2008

But who was mostly responsible for letting this fandango of ‘fancy financial instruments’ go into a wild frenzy?

Who else, but the Maestro, the Mr Magoo of Central Bankers? (“Bubble? I can’t see any bubble”). None other than the long time Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank, a man who once famously assured the anxious souls in Washington that there was no need to worry, derivatives were just spreading the risk globally. This was, assured the Maestro, a good thing.

Working to a grand design, to give the US continual dominance in world markets by serving the interest of the “Money Trust” (the cabal of bankers who own the Federal Reserve), perhaps nobody had more influence on what is happening today in world markets, and for a concise summary, let’s see what F. William Engdahl wrote in January this year:

This is the true significance of the crisis today unfolding in US and global capital markets. Greenspan’s 18 year tenure can be described as rolling the financial markets from successive crises into ever larger ones, to accomplish the over-riding objectives of the Money Trust guiding the Greenspan agenda. Unanswered at this juncture is whether Greenspan’s securitization revolution was a “bridge too far,” spelling the end of the dollar and of dollar financial institutions’ global dominance for decades or more to come.

Greenspan’s adamant rejection of every attempt by Congress to impose some minimal regulation on OTC derivatives trading between banks; on margin requirements on buying stock on borrowed money; his repeated support for securitization of sub-prime low quality high-risk mortgage lending; his relentless decade-long push to weaken and finally repeal Glass-Steagall restrictions on banks owning investment banks and insurance companies; his support for the Bush radical tax cuts which exploded federal deficits after 2001; his support for the privatization of the Social Security Trust Fund in order to funnel those trillions of dollars cash flow into his cronies in Wall Street finance—all this was a well-planned execution of what some today call the securitization revolution, the creation of a world of New Finance where risk would be detached from banks and spread across the globe to the point no one could identify where real risk lay.

Ironic, when you consider that the Idiot Decider now thinks all these ‘fancy financial instruments’ may have something to do with the catastrophic state of their financial and credit markets, isn’t it?

Not only was Alan Greenspan allowing the pumping of Agent Orange by all and sundry, dispersing it far and wide with no checks on its usage, he was all the while singing its praises, even in the face of many who expressed their well founded concerns to him. Some years later, there are scorched earth losses hitting the US banks and investment houses and a lot of very sick borrowers who are pretty sure where they contracted their diseases. (Not to mention investors worldwide who are taking a severe haircut on vast tranches of this toxic subprime muck and anything else which has the label US mortgage in the fine print.)

Today, another 8,000 US householders got foreclosure notices. Yesterday there were 8,000 and tomorrow 8,000, and the day after that another lot. Pretty soon that adds up to millions and the cost to families and entire neighbourhoods is immeasurable. It’s estimated the final tally will be around 6.5 million foreclosures, but if this market really collapses, it could go much higher.

Currently there are worrying signs that the next level up from subprime, the Alt-A market, is starting to crack too. And this does not include the possible tens of millions of homes which will be ‘underwater’, with the value sinking under the level of debt being carried. People are now posting in their keys to the bank and simply walking away figuring it’s the cheaper way out. Throw the credit cards onto the bonfire as well.

“What bubble? I don’t see any bubble,” was always Greenspan’s answer.
Voters on the whole don’t know the details, but look at the polls that ask them about which way their country is headed. They point in one direction, and the mood is decidedly, well, un-American. The can-do nation is watching itself bobbing around in the can, and it’s not a national mood that sits well with them. They don’t do pessimism comfortably (they aren’t French or Russians, after all), but they’re not averse to revenge. Come November, they’ll unleash this, and it won’t be to vote for McSame…same policies, same incompetence, and same lies.

Obama set the national discourse with one word: ‘change’. And that word is getting amplified on so many levels, none more spectacular than his candidacy itself. A candidate who so defied the pundits’ paradigm of US politics that it almost universally took them by surprise. (It sure took Hillary Clinton by surprise!). How much change can he implement after nearly a generation of ‘regulatory debauchery’ is open to question, but maybe the voters will not be reading the fine print nor the arcane details, they’ll be going with their gut reaction, an aversion to what has gotten them into this mess.

Trillions of dollars of householders’ wealth is being torched in the bonfire of the inanities, and while none of this ‘had to be’, it was definitely ‘allowed’ to be.

If all of this financial meltdown wasn’t enough ballast for the good ship McCain, he’s still desperate to tell his story, and clutches the albatross he calls the ‘surge’, imploring anyone still listening, and tries to convince them it’s working. (He decided that telling voters the economy had made progress under Bush was not going to sail in the face of the shocking reality.) But it’s too late now because the voters hardly care anymore, they just want out, and so does Obama, and so does al Maliki, and nearly all the Iraqis who aren’t dead yet, or haven’t left the country (or what’s left of it). It’s a dead albatross, but it’s nearly the only thing he has, and he’ll go on wearing its bedraggled corpse until November, for all the good it will do him.

The death of the US dollar hegemony? Even the death of Reaganism?

Uncertain? Well, it’s quite possibly both.

But one thing IS for certain: that’s a very dead albatross that old guy is wearing.

“Ah! well-a-day! what evil looks
Had I from old and young!
Instead of the cross, the Albatross
About my neck was hung.”


(Samuel Taylor Coleridge, “The Rhyme of the Ancient Mariner”)

For those with a Monty Python bent (and those terms go together so well!), perhaps they could try a variation on the famous Dead Parrot Sketch, with McCain as the storekeeper and the irate voter demanding a refund for his now very defunct albatross. Perhaps the bird was called Serge, and the confusion begins right there… over to you!

428 replies on “The Rhyme of the Ancient Aviator or, The Dead Albatross Sketch”

Quick squiz…shared PC.

Great article,Kirri,and agree repercussions will be felt for some time.

And on top of that you mentioned my favourite Python Parrot sketch!! 😆

Two gold stars and a koala stamp!

Problem now is how to avoid our hard-earneds
depreciating even further.

Brilliant Kirri- explains this mess in terms that non-economits/psephologists like me can understand.
UInfortunately.
Scary scary stuff.

Scary it is Jen, and yes Megan is right…it’s coming our way, one way or another.

Votemaster:

Over half of all Americans (55%) rate Barack Obama’s Berlin speech good or excellent according to a Rasmussen poll. In contrast, 41% said it was fair or poor. Rasmussen reported that Obama has gotten a small bounce from the speech and is now leading John McCain by 46% to 41% nationally.

Not to mention all the great photo’s he can use in his campaign.

http://www.electoral-vote.com

Holy F Kirri- what ‘s to be done?
I know there are those (ahem) who say that you are a doomsayer, chicken-little, armageddon -predicting pessimist.
If only it were so.
Got to wonder how Obi thinks he is goign to manage this – blaming the other guy will only work for so long.
Methinks POTUS will be a poisoned chalice.

Hi Chris- wouldn’t have expected too much home bounce for Obi on this one – they’ve got enought to worry about on their own soil. Besides America (home of the All -american “World Series”) tend to not realise there are other people on the planet apart from themselves.

Obama is getting support from white liberal talk radio hosts as well, but the backing he is getting from black radio hosts could be especially helpful to his campaign’s efforts to increase black turnout and raise historically low voter registration enough to change the math of presidential elections in battlegrounds and traditionally Republican states like this one.

“Urban stations can be in ’08 what Rush Limbaugh delivered for conservatives a generation ago,” said the Rev. Al Sharpton, who has a two-year-old radio program that is now syndicated on stations throughout the country, including in states like Georgia, Michigan, Ohio and North Carolina. “If you look at the political map of where our shows are, it matches the gap of unregistered voters.”

Registration required for the New York Times political section.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/27/us/politics/27radio.html?ref=business

Three shows report reaching a combined audience of nearly 20 million.

This month’s Ebony magazine lists Mr. Obama first among the “25 Coolest Brothers of All Time,” alongside Muhammad Ali and Malcolm X. Caribbean stations play songs about him, like “Barack Obama” by Cocoa Tea and “Barack the Magnificent” by the calypso star Mighty Sparrow. “We spin them three, four times a day,” said Sir Rockwell, the morning D.J. at WDJA in Delray Beach, Fla.

Registration required for the New York Times political section.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/27/us/politics/27radio.html?ref=business

After immersion coverage of international affairs — with big media outlet “exclusive” interviews scheduled almost every day since he left Chicago on July 17 — the Obama campaign on Monday shifts to “talking and focusing on the economic situation,” Gibbs said. Ahead soon is what Gibbs called “the last remaining wild card” — Obama’s selection of a vice presidential running mate.

http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2008/07/obamas_latest_stop_10_downing.html

The Nation, once regarded as a serious, left-wing magazine, declared last week that Obama is the new ‘Frank Sinatra, so cool he’s hot’, a centrifugal force that can make ‘legions of little girls jump out of their panties’. Michelle was as much of a sex symbol, it continued. She gave him ‘hot, married love’, while the Republicans were stuck with the ‘stiff, asexual, erratic McCain and his zombie-fied former drug addict wife’.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jul/27/barackobama.uselections2008

It doesn’t know it, but the liberal-left in Europe and North America has been lucky to have Bush.

By building him up into a great Satan, the oil man who invades countries to seize their reserves and the Christian who orders bloody crusades, they have hidden the totalitarian threats of our age from themselves and anyone who listens to them.

now that the majority of liberals seems likely to get the American President of their dreams, they will have to offer him their support, won’t they?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jul/27/barackobama.uselections2008

That’s amazing CB!!
Really did not expect it to have such an impact. looks liike the US is waking up to the fact that they are in fact part of, not the entire world.

With more polls to come in, it will only get better. The Real Clear Politics poll average is climbed another .3%.

14 jen I don’t think we got much of the coverage here, but USA got wall to wall coverage. It had to make some impact. I’ll take 7%, but if the national polls aren’t a true reflection it could be a lot more.

Two weeks to go to the Olympic advertising starts. Maybe the VP could come next, but depending on who gets them as to the reflection is in the polls

Chris- to be honest i am quite happy to use William’s Oz site for that discussion as there are a number of really good contributors there. He has also put a ban on the US election being discussed which means the amigos will have to stick to the local issues and do their mud slinging from that position if they must. Ironically we were far more in agreement on Oz politics than the US one so hopefully some of the bad blood will settle.
I am going to persevere for a while and see what happens.

Gosh,it is quiet today!

I will blame the Tour de France,Bledisloe Cup, and Swannies match last night for my distraction today.

Plus it was just a glorious day for bushwalking.

It was either that or I would have succumbed to checking the back of sofas and linings of pockets for loose change,tallying the kids’ moneyboxes and hoarding rice and oats for uncertain times ahead 🙂

Actually read that the Art market may be recession proof so this may be the perfect excuse to buy a nice Geoffrey Smart painting ,or maybe one by Margaret Olley…

It’s times like these we need EC….

Ecky,where are you with our daily toons?

Now this is the type of headline we like.

Obama’s popularity as anti-Bush is telling.

Barack Obama’s electoral rival is John McCain, but Obama’s overseas trip this week has given heartburn to another Republican — President Bush.

In stop after stop across the Middle East and Europe, Obama was embraced as the man whose promise of change meant a change from Bush: on Iraq, Mideast peace, the treatment of terrorism suspects, climate change, alliance relations and more.

The trip had to come as a jolt for administration officials, said Wayne White, a senior State Department intelligence official in Bush’s first term. “I’m sure it was a bit rattling for the administration to see someone treated with such deference,” he said.

😀 😀 😀 😀 😀

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-bush26-2008jul26,0,389750.story

I think we like this one too.

August birthdays highlight McCain-Obama generational split.

John McCain and Barack Obama are approaching August birthdays that will highlight the biggest-ever age gap between major American presidential candidates.

Obama will be 47 on Aug. 4. McCain will be 72 on Aug. 29.

Their 25-year gap, and the questions it inherently raises about experience and vitality, is part of a powerful generational subtext of the 2008 campaign.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-07-27-candidates-age-gap_N.htm

Great article. Gives us lots of hope.

The racist south has gone with the wind.

Sarah Baxter returns to her US childhood home to find out how much racial attitudes have changed.

By an accident of history, Barack Obama is set to delivery his victory nomination speech at the Democratic National Convention on August 28, the 45th anniversary of the civil rights leader’s prophecy. If the timing has a special resonance for me, it was because I lived in Alabama as a young girl for three years in the late 1960s, the period when King was assassinated.

Has America changed enough to elect its first African-American president? Last month I returned to the Alabama of my childhood to find out.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article4405766.ece

When presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama arrive in Florida this week for the first time in more than a month, they’ll find a tight race for the state’s precious electoral votes.

Obama appears to have closed the gap on McCain – taking the lead in several recent polls for the first time – following a glut of campaign hires, a swarm of organizing and, perhaps most importantly, his first flood of targeted television ads, particularly in North Florida.

Zogby pollsters and Karl Rove, President Bush’s former top political adviser, put Florida in the tossup column last week, and McCain campaign officials acknowledged that the race in Florida has tightened.

Obama has been airing most of his television ads in North Florida, where McCain lived during two different points in his life and where voters tend to favor Republican candidates for federal office.

“This campaign is not just thinking outside the box, it’s taking a sledgehammer to the box,” said Obama spokeswoman Adrianne Marsh.

That’s just what we like to see.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/politics/content/local_news/epaper/2008/07/26/m1a_fla_prez_0727.html

30 jen

Friday the NAB wrote down almost a billion dollars worth of US mortgage securities.

The CEO wrote it off 100%! Bankers tend to be conservative folks, so that tells you all you need to know. It’s bad, and it’s going to get a lot, lot worse.

In other words, this puff piece is just so much papering over the cracks it isn’t funny.

Ben Stein is a market shill, that’s his job. His supposedly detached objective assessment of what is an unprecedented collapse of the US home mortgage market (and credit markets generally) is facile and misleading in my opinion.

Bingo!

Today’s News Hour on NPR had David Brooks saying about McCain: “He’s got to stop talking about the surge, stop telling us it’s working and move onto the future…”

His albatross is showing! LOL

32 megan

Interesting idea, and no doubt ‘free market’ advocates would rail against the notion that regulations would determine who has access to mortgages, and yet it makes good sense in the big picture.

But like so many good ideas, the vested interests compete and they’ve usually got a head start. Although I think ultimately building codes will get much stiffer on greenhouse issues over the coming years anyway.

Frank Rich in today’s NYTimes, says of McCain:

“…a candidate so oblivious to our nation’s big challenges ahead that he is doubling down in his campaign against both Mr. Maliki and Mr. Obama to be elected commander in chief of the surge.”

…there’s that albatross.

Again! LOL

Kirri – I have no doubt that your analysis is correct. But like all good ostriches…
I suspect the truth isthat no-one – not the pollies, not the bankers, not the analysts are telling the truth about how bad this is going to get. They all stand to lose too much.
The same goes for the impact of CC: it’s way way worse than is being publicly admitted.
Let’s face it- they are people too – no doubt hoping for some miracle cure. (hope that wasn’t insensitive Kirri – but I’m sure you know where I’m coming from. )

33 KR

Ben Stein is a market shill, that’s his job. His supposedly detached objective assessment of what is an unprecedented collapse of the US home mortgage market (and credit markets generally) is facile and misleading in my opinion.

Yep KR the guy has a vested interest in writing an article like that.

Throw a little bit of money at his Democrat mate’s campaign for the Senate in his own state to muddy the waters a bit, but all the time being a fully fledged GOPper from way back when he was Tricky Dick’s speech writer.

I must add that if i was a writer for the NY Times with that sort of exposure, and hoping for my Party to get up, and something as serious as their economy was a thorn in the side, then i would certainly write something along the same vein.

She’s right mate, not really as bad as it seems, you gotta believe me just keep votin us back in and we will fix it.

Not only are the people losing their homes at that alarming rate, there are lots of builders shutting up shop and walking away from it as well.

Kirri the poster Jen is referring to is sad cause he just found out that his horse in the primaries missed out but got the consolation prize fo Ms Photogenic.

gaffhook.jpg

That was a bit of a mess up

Yep KR the guy has a vested interest in writing an article like that.

Throw a little bit of money at his Democrat mate’s campaign for the Senate in his own state to muddy the waters a bit, but all the time being a fully fledged GOPper from way back when he was Tricky Dick’s speech writer.

I must add that if i was a writer for the NY Times with that sort of exposure, and hoping for my Party to get up, and something as serious as their economy was a thorn in the side, then i would certainly write something along the same vein.

She’s right mate, not really as bad as it seems, you gotta believe me just keep votin us back in and we will fix it.

Not only are the people losing their homes at that alarming rate, there are lots of builders shutting up shop and walking away from it as well.

Kirri the poster Jen is referring to is sad cause he just found out that his horse in the primaries missed out but got the consolation prize fo Ms Photogenic.

gaffhook.jpg

38 jen

Yeah, there are plenty of Bolts around who are essentially self-publicists and who take a contrary position for getting attention.

Look, even Bernanke was telling us, less than a year ago(!), that the subprime problem was minor and contained.

How wrong could you be? (Not much! LOL)

There’s so much that’s seriously wrong with the underlying financial structures that Marc Faber may not be far out in his analysis. Put it this way, would you believe another thing Bernanke says?

Right now they are in panic mode, and just hope they can shore up the mortgage markets long enough (with taxpayers IOU’s) for it to reach bottom. Meanwhile US banks are failing and there’s an estimate that 150 will go down. (Another 2 went on Friday).

So much for Stein’s silly point that ‘only’ IndyMac has so far collapsed.

38 jen

I’m getting the blunderbuss treatment Jen, and it’s got a fairly good track record for my little ailment. But the treatment is worse than the disease! LOL

Kirri- osunds awful, but hang in there – Bribane awaits.
gaffhook – clearly not enough.

Nice segue! He previously prosecuted Charles Manson, and now, he wants to charge GW Bush with murder.

Vincent Bugliosi’s opening statements during the House Judiciary Committee hearing on the constitutional limits of executive power:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDAFozFn4kU

…Ecky, you’ll love this one!

Kirri – your stoicism is amazing. How TF you still have time to give a rats about the political scene is inspiring.
Thanks.
x.

KR

I would think GWB et al should be charged with manslaughter rather than murder. I don’t think they intended that US soldiers would die, although it was a foreseeable outcome. Reckless endangerment with fatal consequences is manslaughter.

What about the Iraqi civilians Diogenes? In particular the children.
The US soldiers at least voluteered to enter the war games.
Those kids didn’t.
🙁

Another poll with a 6% swing.

Yesterday Barack Obama said that he expected his polls to drop since he hadn’t been campaigning for a week (as if he didn’t know the effect of having Americans watch 200,000 Germans cheering and waving American flags). To his “surprise,” Obama got a bounce in the national polls. Gallup has him ahead 48% to 41% (was 45% to 43% before the trip). Rasmussen has him ahead 49% to 43% (was tied at 46%). An NBC/WSJ poll has Obama on top 47% to 41%. A 5% win in the popular vote will almost assuredly result in a landslide in the electoral college.

http://www.electoral-vote.com

jen

The US courts have no jurisdiction to try Bush for crimes against Iraqis on Iraqi soil. That would take the ICC which the US can sidestep.

Evenin’ Bludgers, missed yez.

Suberb debut, Kirri. Always worth waiting for quality:) Would like to reply in more detail tomorrow. Been away, gotta kip. The Bugliosi clip was a corker. Remember well being glued to Helter Skelter all those years ago. Wonderful to see the former Asst. L.A. D.A. still has the fire in his belly.

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/56795

“Little boxes on the hillside and they’re all made out of ticky-tacky, little boxes ,little boxes….. and they all look just the same” Pete Seegar.
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/56809

Sat July 26:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=A0WTUeLvZoxIRusAOxUDwLAF

Sat July 26:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=Ag3.rPVAFg2GPjXf5piRGN7b.sgF

Till Tommorow like Tom, then.

chris B at 57, i think the trip has been good for Obama, and the polls reflect that. the only slip up- i dont understand why he didnt visit the hospital in Germany- sure McCain and the conservative media would have blasted him for politicising them, but it wasnt a good look to cancel the trip i think

Michelle Obama makes her own rules on the road to the White House.

Michelle Obama glides into an empty Jungle Island banquet room looking fresh in a signature, white sheath dress that exposes toned arms and showcases that long, graceful neck.

If her style earns her comparisons to Jackie O, she won’t complain.

”Especially after meeting Caroline, who is a grounded young woman, I’m like, if I’m compared to the woman who produced her, I’ll take it,” Obama says.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/story/619061.html

60 Andrew Six of one half a dozen of the other. Obama couldn’t win on that one, although McCain seems to complain about everything Obama does, so maybe that’s good.

New Rasmussen Poll for California:

OBAMA 50
MCFRAUD 38

That’s 54 electoral college votes in the bag for Obama

Evening all – long day, so much to catchup on. Chris – thanks for the updates on polls and news and such. And its good to see EC getting close to the end of his foreign tour and back to the US Edition where he belongs (you have to admit that it’s a bit presumptuous of EC to leave us like that given all of the issues we have to deal with here).

😉

Great debut, KR. You’ve taken a lot of trouble, especially considering you have other more important things to take care of.

It is amazing, isn’t it: the customary nonchalance of the bankers, the pollies and the officials can be cool as cash one day, and stink like conceit the next.

Like you say, the money machine is kaput. And we are going to see the economic consequences play out for a long time to come.

KR – I must confess that during our pre-publication-phase I was focusing more on technical issues, lead paragraphs, and placement, etc. and that I never got an opportunity to read the piece in terms of content. But tonight I had the chance to sit back and read it in full – great post!

Following your theme, in an interview taped in London just a couple of days ago Obama gets questioned on the housing crisis and potential solutions by Tom Brokaw on MSNBC’s Meet the Press. Aside from the housing meltdown this particular interview is really interesting in that Obama is outlining a energy strategy that sounds a lot like Al Gore’s initiative.

On other Meet the Press themes, Obama talks about the overall trip in response to a questions something along the lines of “What has changes in your mind as a consequence of the trip?” and somewhat predictably this gets into stuff about Iraq and Afghanistan, the surge, John McCain’s attacks, etc., etc.. Obama’s response is very much the same thing that he’s been pushing over in the Middle East and Europe – multiple initiatives, national interests, Afghanistan is the priority subject. In another segment – Obama addresses the NATO involvement question and gets into the roles of different NATO allies. During the segment he presents an impressive level of detail of the realities on the ground in terms of European and Member State politics and stands up for Chancellor Angela Merkel position and the contribution of Germany’s forces in the alliance (and in part his focus on Berlin during last week’s tour). Obama goes on to do a nice job of linking in Britain and France as strategic allies and folding the subject into positioning and perception with respect to several Middle East nations.

I was a little disappointed with Obama’s responses on the subject of energy in that I felt that he could have emphasized much more the role of nation state allies (several opportunities that IMO were missed), but at the same time I’m aware that this is a media moment focussed on the American population. But (and in raising the ‘but’ I’m bringing myself down to reality) he did a good job of articulating global problems and the necessity for global solutions.

Another interesting thing resulting from my usual blitz on the American media, the NYTs site really didn’t deliver much of interest, nor did CNN, NBC, the Huffington Post or Politico. In effect these guys mainly focussed on trivia as opposed to core subjects (although I should single out the Politico’s article ‘5 lasting impacts of Obama’s grand voyage’ in that it seems to reasonably reflect a shallow American media take on events). Personally, I’m hoping for something much more substantive in a NYT OP-ED piece sometime in the next couple of days.

Gallup Daily Poll – Obama 49%, McCain 40%.

PRINCETON, NJ — Barack Obama now leads John McCain among national registered voters by a 49% to 40% margin in Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted July 24-26.

For the arithmetically challenged, this is the biggest margin that Obama has had over McCain in months. The Real Clear Politics puts the rolling average at +5 (46.7% versus 41.7%) for Obama (and that’s taking into account a Fox poll giving Obama a 1% advantage over McCain back on the 22-23 July while Obama was busy changing geopolitical equations in the Middle East).

Gallup Daily Polls are linked in our ‘Polling’ section at the top right of the page.

This link is interesting in that it is about a darkness – a darkness that is wrapped in religion, beliefs, insecurity, and maybe just plain getting on with your life. But at the same time there is something all American about this which in and of itself is a cause for concern (on so may fronts).

http://www.star-telegram.com/news/story/786870.html

And on this note I’m saying goodnight – and I’m counting on Chris B, Jen, KR, optimist (blind or otherwise), EC, and others to set the story strait before I return to consciousness and appease that quirky need for an opinion better than my own.

Mornin’ All. yes Cat at 70, people who abuse their children that way, can easily be persuaded to do anything to others in their god’s name. “our” fundies are ever bit as deranged as “theirs”. Jim Jonestown is but a short step from the child abuse documented at 70. Perhaps a quarter of Seps with The Imbecile as their Dark Knight are capable of being led into any hell hole.

http://www.truthdig.com/cartoon/item/20080724_on_vacation/

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/56759

Remember that talking head from some mining corp. who told 60 Minutes about a month ago that Australia’s supply of shale was limitless and that the whole “Peak Oil” concept was bunkum?
For Big Carbon junkies the biosphere they believe, is their safe-injecting room. Time we told ‘em to get nicked, cos we, and a whole bunch of other critters, including us, live in that biosphere too!!
Global solutions apparently, elude them. Way Big Carbon Corps figure it, the remainder of the viable world is their Black Hole of Calcutta. The fact that there will be an incredibly diminished market for them on account of we mere terrestrials being Wall-E Worlded hasn’t dawned in any meaningful way at Board Room level thus far.
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/56765

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Hole_of_Calcutta

Speculation: Republican Senator Chuck Hagel could be about to endorse Obama. He’s not happy about McCain’s latest ad criticising Obama for not visiting the military hospital in Germany!

63 Progressive Obama was never going to loose California, it was always his. It’s not really a pick up.

Morning friends-
Progressive -that’s a hoot! Pretty soon McCain might endorse him just to put an end to his own agonisingly slow political demise.
Thanks for the fantastic posts eveyone – Diogs obviously you’re rigt about the prosecuting of Bush over dead Iraqis – it just insenses me that they will get away with wholesale slaughter – up on my High Horse, as Finns would say.

Good morning Jen and Chris!
Hey, I know California has been safe to the Democrats since 1992, if only Ohio and Florida could go blue this time too
Imagine if Obama named Hagel as his running mate…..that’d stir up the shit LOL

The Democrats need to keep the momentum going for 2010 to make it a clean sweep, (the last of the senate elections). They could keep the momentum going by digging up all the dirt on the Repugs. Prosecutions for war crimes could be part of this.

76 Progressive Having a Repug as a VP is dangerous. It invites a JFK situation. He doesn’t need to fall back on a gimmick, Obama is in too strong a position.

If anyone wonders where I get all my news information from, I have personalised Google News. Now Google allows you to pass it on. Here is a link. Enjoy.

http://news.google.com/news?ned=:ePkh8BM9VZDBSgMxEIZF2IVV1Lq6aNFDznMqPoNXsVB8gGk
cu6FJpiRpl30Wj4LgybNv4WNIH6EHcapId09Dvm-YyfxlAdn9FB2OijIv98lKLWUjHC6jWrA1yego7Ai
Kh4makMdE8ryCC0-NajnMVTKOer1DqMbkfWztCr3BrrqGywZjbfwssRcRU9fK1MjLVCt0FIxG35VncMK
BZtyDFZxOMaCeK94esVW_F8DxnUFn1HjXeg6DJ8vBPPY-JPSWHOuAAtQCQ2qFZpLAX2lGxX-8N4O3g_f
hy-u6-v58XtVfH3ubXALb5JlljfYHhsZmiw

Just a small link. 🙂

Pollster.com has at the top of its front page a chart suggesting that the presidential election is all but over.

The public opinion experts who run the site say states with 284 electoral college votes – 14 more than the 270 needed to win – lean to or firmly support Barack Obama; states with 147 lean toward or are in John McCain’s camp; and 10 states with 107 electoral votes are tossups.

In other words, the site suggests that Obama does not need to win a single tossup state — Colorado, Missouri, Florida, Virginia, Arizona, Nevada, Montana, North Dakota, North Carolina or Indiana — to take the oath of office on January 20, 2009.

Huffington Post

Take the 15 billion in #81, the billions that are avoiding tax in tax havens the senate is investigating. Then tax the rich, then USA is back in tip top condition. Obama has performed a miracle. it makes the Democrats look very good for a number of years. 🙂

Our resident Liberal on the Pollbludger site who went to Canada for 3 months is going to be in for a surprise when he gets back. Sorry I have forgotten his name. I wonder if he will behave himself on this site?

Chris: you mean Glen, the resident Howard supporter on Poll Bludger last year? I don’t mind him actually, he’s a cut above the other conservative trolls over there.

Some academics weigh in:

“Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry. Again, maybe conditions will change in McCain’s favour, and if they do, they should also be accurately described by the media. But current data do not justify calling this election a toss-up.”

http://www.smh.com.au/news/us-election/no-cliffhanger-obama-landslide/2008/07/27/1217097059908.html

…it’s the media’s attempt to make it a contest.

We knew that! LOL

Gallup has a video on what Europeans think about Obama.
Obama is running at 60% in UK, Germany and France.

Americans like Europeans, as apposed to 5 years ago. There popularity ranges from 60% in France 80% in UK 90% in Germany. The 200,000 strong crowd in Germany can only be good, very useful footage. Maybe the European tours response has helped make up peoples minds, hence the lift in the polls.

Great video.

http://www.gallup.com/fvideo.aspx?i=94vdqS54cVi4Mk9i5sQtwtU4MoYEg@XjNFNDHcYVWY6Ycr9rO25qpMb0Wd61ncbT3WLxRPRh0oiHdiG4EXouCQaa

Just for the record:

US BANKING regulators closed two lenders in California and Nevada two weeks after the collapse of IndyMac Bancorp, as loan defaults and foreclosures soar.

First National Bank of Nevada, with $US3.4 billion ($35.6 billion) in assets, and the Californian First Heritage Bank, with $US254 million, lacked sufficient capital, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said last week in a statement. Their deposits and some assets would be acquired by Mutual of Omaha Bank, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said.

…two more, just 147 to go.

Put it this way, Glen is slightly less objectionable than Ron and that Finnegans person(who has taken to attacking me personally on PB). Glen at least can argue in a coherent manner, you can’t say the same for Ron’s ramblings.

This from KR’s article at #85

Alan Abramowitz, a professor of political science at Emory University, Thomas Mann, a senior fellow at Brookings Institution, and Larry Sabato, professor of politics at University of Virginia, accused the media of flogging a dead horse in trying to portray the presidential race as a cliffhanger.

Exactly what we’ve all been saying.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/us-election/no-cliffhanger-obama-landslide/2008/07/27/1217097059908.html

Should Obama win this and 2010 election in a landslide, assuming a 60+ majority in the senate. That will give Obama at least 4 years to make the sweeping changes necessary in the USA. If he does a good job, a lot longer.

Hey Chris – love that link at 94.
Could have told them that if they’d taken any notice of my “waters”!

eww jen 🙂

Anyhoo, just thought I’d say well done on the site here, you guys really got the place spruced up quickly. Excellent posts and comments, has a good “feel” to it

If I may make one small suggestion, just forget about the to and fro between here and some others over at PB oz edition, nobody is really interested in it except perhaps for some of the participants and really, they are just talking in circles with each other… who cares?…

Anyway, curtains look nice, I bought a plate, where’s the fridge?

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