Team Obama appear to have the grass/netroots organisation, numbers and smarts to be able to deal with any Rove-stlye GOP electoral interference on Nov. 4. Considering the depths to which the GOP have previously descended in order to cling to power and thereby maintain their access to the Federal Trough, worst case scenarios should be fully prepared for, indeed, expected.
In the 2004 US Presidential Election G. W. Bush gained 286 Electoral College Votes (ECVs); John Kerry, 252. To become POTUS a Party’s Nominee must gain 270 ECVs. Each state has a number of electors equal to the number of its Senators and Representatives in the United States Congress which is proportional to the population as determined through a census taken every 10 years. CA for example has 55 ECVs, Nth Dakota, 3. Each State awards its ECVs on a winner take all basis of the popular vote except Maine and Nebraska which have minor idiosyncratic variations. To hardcore Bludgers, these things are “known knowns”.
State Governors have the executive power (which is an inordinate amount of clout) to determine how the popular vote is tallied in their States, eg, CO (Democratic Governor) now has all pencil and paper ballots, while FL (GOP Gov.) has widespread (ab)use of poorly scrutinised Diebold receiptless computer-touchscreen voting machines.
Diebold incidentally, make ATMs which produce receipts upon request but they just haven’t been able to employ that good ‘ol American know-how to manufacture a voting machine that would likewise supply a paper trail. Funny about that. Paper trails come in mighty handy in the event of disputed returns. As things stand, the word of the computer programmers is final. Verifiable democracy, it would seem, can take a hike! Diebold Corporation are major donors to the GOP, but that’s probably just a coincidence. Diebold computers tallied the vote in OHIO 2004 and the State was ruled by GOP Goveror, Bob Taft (ref. 20 Amazing Facts About Elections).
Had Kerry won OHIO’s 20 ECVs in 2004, he would have become POTUS.
Karl Rove has recently been subject to a surge of mentorial pride. Mr. Rove is former W.H. Deputy CoS and “architect” of President G.W. Bush’s electoral success. He presently is an artful dodger of Congressional subpoenas concerning the “letting go of” Federal Judges who, in Karl’s opinion, were not onside with his former master’s aims and objectives regarding the practicalities of maintaining the upper hand in matters of day to day rule.
Karl’s understudy, Steve “Schmuckens” Schmidt, has displayed prodigious talent already as a “draughtsman”. Mr.Schmidt has recently become prospective GOP Nominee John McCain’s chief campaign advisor. It would not be unreasonable to assume that Mr. Schmidt would be willing to employ all the wiles of his mentor in order to have Senator McCain “elected” POTUS.
Not unreasonably, with respect of the abovementioned developments, there are some amongst us who smell a rat and I am unabashedly one of those people. However, the political landscape has altered rather dramatically since 2004. Latest polling suggests that while the GOP is not likely to gain ANY States in Nov. 2008, Dems have excellent prospects in CO IN IA MT NM OH and VA (ref. electoral-vote.com). Of these States, all except Indiana have Democratic Governors, therefore the prospects of Schmidt & Co pulling an “OHIO 04” in those States are somewhat diminished (ref. Wikipedia: US Governors Map).
Despite the obvious fraud potential in Diebolds’ systems (ref. Lou Dobs on Dibold), the Democratic Leadership Council in its wisdom persisted in having the Dodgies from Diebold tally the N.H. primary which, contrary to all pre and exit polls, produced a stunning campaign-sustaining victory for “Beltway to her Bootstraps” HRC, and not the upstart Junior Senator from Illinois, BHO.
Just another coincidence, I guess.
There are many other methods of rorting US elections such as compulsory carrying of ID for voters in Indiana, and the methods addressed in the Wikipedia: 2004 US Presidential election controversy notes. In preparing this post I read literally scores of articles but had to stand in awe of the jounalistic and research skills of Maureen Farrell. For Bludgers interested in the subject, her work: “Another Rigged Election, The Elephant in the Booth”, is outstanding. Finally, despite the unfairness in our electoral system such as disproportionate Senate representation, our way of electing our representatives by the straightforward marking of paper ballots with a pencil seems to be comparatively tamper-proof.
371 replies on “Electoral Fraud: Can Diebold do it again?”
Thurs July 17: http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AufnO.sJA1yTFpftdxR5bmPXj5Z4
Wed July 16:
Count me in. I’ll be the one watching…
Sen. Barack Obama’s campaign announced Wednesday that it is adding 20 offices across Virginia, an unprecedented effort by a presidential candidate and another sign that he plans to compete vigorously in a state that has been on the sidelines during past presidential contests.
The offices, which will open Saturday, will be in nearly every medium-size city in the state, along with a few locations often overlooked by statewide candidates, much less a presidential campaign.
Jon Daily and Stephen Colbert weigh in :
Senator Barack Obama blamed the right-wing media for attacks on his wife, Michelle, that have driven up her negative ratings.
In an interview with Glamour magazine , Mr. Obama pointed to “the conservative press — Fox News and the National Review and columnists of every ilk,” and said they “went fairly deliberately at her in a pretty systematic way” and that they “treated her as the candidate in a way that you just rarely see the Democrats try to do against Republicans.”
You need to be registered for NY Times
Cat, you’ve got mail.
Bewdy, Flaneur. It’s ok, none of us bite, you can have a chat and a cheer and a hiss and a boo too.
Be checking out some joints in The Valley and Paddo that are listed as having Hotpoint Wireless access for laptops next week. Getting all the necessary criteria together with a dash of ambience should set things up for a memorable day.
EC at 301 is now liberated.
This so far is really good news. The evangelicals got Bush up, if they don’t turn out in there droves this time, it’s big news for Obama.
McCain hasn’t ignited the passions of evangelicals.
KR at 306
Message read – will delve tomorrow and see where it takes me.
Thanks, Cat, and g’night gang.
yep, outta here too.
Olbermann is back from holidays
(thank God, or the Pope) whatever …
Barack Obama in an extended piece on the neuclear threat.
304 Enemy Combatant Any publicity is good publicity. Barack just has to sit back and watch it all happen.
Democrats Hold a Cash Advantage in Open Seat Races.
Democratic candidates for open House seats have expanded their cash lead in the second quarter of the year, new financial reports show.
Democrats running in the 21 open seats CQ Politics rates as competitive have raised an average of nearly $1 million each through June, and have kept an average of $501,000 in the bank. Their Republican counterparts, meanwhile, have raised about $879,000 on average, while keeping an average of $358,000 on hand. The analysis did not include the 9th District race in Missouri, which holds its primary Aug. 5. Candidates in that race will file their pre-primary reports next week.
Morming all – Chris B re the evangelicals
Not to put too fine point on it there appears to be a strong link between evangelism and voting a completely incompetent idiot as POTUS. Something to do with capacity to think intelligently perhaps.
The Democrats have a massive cash advantage in most of the open seats, therefore drawing far less on Obamas war chest. Freeing that up to be spent elsewhere. The financial differences between the two sides is massive, the likes of which we have never seen before. It can only have a huge effect on the outcome of the election.
317 jen Couldn’t have put it better myself.
Going back to my new toy. If you set it to the 2006 mid term elections, Obama wins very comfortably. That assumes none of the hardcore evidence that I am now seeing everywhere is taken into account. No one realises the size of this sunami is coming. Maybe I’ll eat my words later on, but at the moment the forensic evidence is clear. At this exact time we are in for one hell of a ride. Saying that there is 3 months to go, and Bush is acting like he will still be there next year, which is a worry!
Link to my new toy. A demographic map. It’s brilliant!
Chris- in my usual scientifically informed way (ie read blogs and news sites) I think this whole election will be li e nothing we have ever seen before – not in my lifetime anyway.
The mood is for not just change but a seismic shift from what hsa been the social and political paradigm. (I hope…)
I better go and have another Valium and lie down!
speaking of religion –
did anyone else think that the reported “amazing scenes ” re the Papal visit were a tad exaggerated?
100,000 people turned out – factoring the number of poor Catholic school kids forced to attend and bussed in from all over -the catholic equivelane to rent a crowd – that’s about the same number at a good football game at the ‘G.
I’ve been avoiding it. Nice captive audience to brainwash.
Negative comments about Obama are met with such a huge backlash from his supporters that it has become almost taboo to criticise him at all. Respected political stalwarts have seen their popularity drop after criticizing Obama. A June CNN poll showed that Bill Clinton’s approval rating among Democrats went down 9% over the past year. As CNN political analyst Bill Schneider explained: “Democrats thought it was appropriate for [Clinton] to support his wife but not appropriate to get overly critical of Obama.” Even comedians like Jon Stewart are finding it virtually impossible to joke about the presumptive Democratic nominee these days, according to the New York Times.
This is really really good. I wonder how long it will last?
Just read a thing where the WEYD organisers said half a million turned out. ABC new last night said 100,000.
maybe it’s a loaves and fishes thing – every school kid turns into 5.
that’s WYD organisers!
It’s sort of the Democrat equivalent of what happened to George Bush after 911. No one could criticize him. Hopefully Obama will use this for good and not for evil.
This reads like an episode of the Keystone Cops. It shows what an uphill battle McCain has got. Hillary had the same forces against her. She was lucky to get as close as she did.
There’s a big difference between McCain’s trip and the one Obama will embark on next week to Europe and the Middle East. In what could be interpreted now as a possible strategic misstep, the McCain campaign chose not to take reporters along for the ride, forcing media outlets who wanted to cover the newly elected GOP nominee to travel on their own without any guarantee of getting anywhere near the senator. The small group of scribes who made the trek (Newsweek chose not to) faced a logistical nightmare, from arranging last-minute foreign visas to struggling to keep up with McCain as they flew commercially from stop to stop. (McCain traveled by a military aircraft.) In contrast, the Obama campaign is inviting reporters on its tour, handling all the logistics–including transportation–for what will certainly be a much larger press corps than usual.
Another swag of polls to go through:
Nevada (Rasmussen): Obama +2
New Jersey (Strategic Vision): Obama +9
Arkansas (Rasmussen): McCain +13
North Carolina (Rasmussen): McCain +3
Washington (SurveyUSA): Obama +16
A couple of national polls:
Gallup Tracking: Obama +2
Rasmussen Tracking: Tie
IBD/TIPP: Obama +3
Overall, the state polls are positive for Obama (although Arkansas looks off the table for him atm). Washington is looking more and more like a lock rather than a toss-up – although Obama would want to increase that lead in NJ – it’s a very expensive market to buy ads in and he doesn’t want to waste his war chest there.
The national polls aren’t so good – there seems to have been a small, but definite shift back to McCain over the past couple of weeks in the national poll. That said, it’s still be a while since McCain has led in any national poll, so it’s still better to be in Obama’s position than in McCain’s…
331 Swing Lowe Yes it’s looking good, I think the national polls cannot get a true reflection of the situation. The state polls and the big demographic polls are trending heavily towards Obama.
Yes, jen. I agree. I also have to say, as a lifelong sceptic, how much I don’t like seeing Rudd trying to cash in on the papal singalong….but on a more cheerful note, I think you’re right about the US election. The whole place has come to reek of decadence and self-deception, even self-betrayal. After the ignominy of the Bush terms, America clearly wants to redefine and re-invent itself. It is possible to see the Congressional elections of 2006 and this election as results of deep-seated desire for renewal.
This mood has even affected the reactionary right. They seem to have lost confidence and, hence, the willingness to put up the mean and dirty fight for which they are so reviled.
I hope I’m not projecting my own feelings too much here, but it seems to be happening in spite of everything.
The only 2 demographic areas Obama isn’t dominating is white males where he is breaking even and the Christian vote. But the Christian vote may not roll up, which is a plus for Obama.
blindoptimist – I agree. In the best psephologically-based evidence I can come up with, I can just feel it in my waters.
Mornin’ bludgerati, and what a fine mornin’ it is, eh?
Good to see the ‘free markets’ of the US pumping themselves with government assurances (Freddie and Fannie both up again, 20% last night) and the new edict from the SEC against anyone selling naked shorts on the banks is working a treat…financial stocks are leading the pack.
What a system, eh?
Of course oil retreating is a help, too, but the main driver is the market is so happy to let the taxpayer pay the tab when the time comes…what peace of mind that brings the capitalist class! LOL
On another tack, all that talk about emissions trading over the last few days got me interested in Europe and the state of play, and I highly recommend this article for a quick taste of the state of play and a projection that the price of carbon is set to take off there…with some regulatory teeth behind it.
It makes Rudd’s grand plan look insipid and somewhat gormless in comparison. OK, if it’s got to be softly softly, when do the fists come out, and the game get serious? I wonder.
Anyway, this is a great little summary of the where Europe is up to…(HINT: miles ahead):
I think the national polls are suspect. Until possum tells me otherwise, I’m going to believe his charts….:)
Swing Lowe is very effective here. He makes you go and find evidence in what you believe will happen, we need a couple more like him.
Anyone want to play devils advocate, to spur me on a bit?
lol jen @ 335.
On a tangent, KR, I think Rudd has not mastered the politics of CC yet. He has been wrong-footed by the Libs on petrol and they are going to make the most of their numbers in the Senate. If I were Rudd, I would be getting the legislation up asap, forcing a decision from the Senate, even a rejection and then getting the legislation back asap in 2009, setting the scene for a DD. (He’ll need the Greens for this, but they would benefit from a DD). Rudd can’t allow the Libs to hold the political initiative on this or they will wreck everything. (Gawd I despise the Libs.)
Arkansas is interesting Swing Lowe. It turned blue in 2006 like Florida. With things being much worse for the Repugs you would expect it to do the same.
CB, it would be good to know what methodology is employed in the national polls – how are samples weighted or are they truly randomised? What are their track records? How do the state-by-state components of national polls compare with state polls. For example, in a very small state, the sample taken in a national poll must be very small so the pollsters must be weighting the samples to reflect demographic data. How reliable are the weighting methods? Have these things been studied by the possums of the world?
The divergence between the national and the state polls is large. It is worth looking into.
As I see it, It would be extremely difficult to do a poll over a country the size of the USA. With so much diversity, even just in one state such as Ohio. See the review here.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/07/swing_state_review_ohio_1.html Let alone the deep south.
The state polls with a sizable sample have to be far more accurate. Even the demographic polls seem to be picking up swings.
Despise the Libs? That all? LOL
What a godawful ‘dark ages’ that Rodent bestowed upon us, a constant round of public handouts to bribe the dull into thinking it was their birthright to be on the public teat and that this was as good as it gets.
Christ it makes me spit that that little man was able to dominate a party of weak kneed hacks and timeservers.
Don’t get me started! A lost decade.
Now, if Rudd doesn’t get bullish on CC he’s sunk, and the opening round doesn’t inspire me frankly. I like your DD idea to stick it to ’em, but I doubt Rudd wants to play it risky…although it should be to his advantage.
Messy stuff politics, ain’ it?
343 Chris B The trouble with seeing so many good signs is, when things start changing directions, you tend to dismiss them because of all the positive news. I shall have to keep my eyes open.
331 Swing Lowe
“That said, it’s still be a while since McCain has led in any national poll, so it’s still better to be in Obama’s position than in McCain’s…”
Plus the European tour starts next week, that’s going to be good publicity.
I’m with you. Add to Howadr’s conduct, the absolutely unbelievble mismngement adn warmomgering of the US gov’t fro 8 years and you have a compounding effect.
Environmental disastor, finacial disastor, hundreds of thousands of dead and maimed innocents, greater instability between East and West
Grrrrr… I could fcking hit someone.
Better stay away from the other site for a while.
As for a DD – bring it on, and get the neocons out of both houses. Not to mention a couple of Environmentally aware Greens in the senate.
Rudd has been trying to apply the methods that served him so well when campaigning from opposition. Frankly, the country deserves more now and he has to try harder. He should get his policy straight and campaign day and night on CC until we are all sick to death of hearing from him. The Libs – a disgrace to the end – will try to derail things. Rudd just can’t let it happen.
Yes, jen, deep breaths, and don’t bite when Eddy pumps out his usual crappola. “Charles Manson” LOL
What a tosser of the first order, eh?
Still, there was two excellent debates going on last night, one on that board about CC, and one on Possum’s with Antony/Possum and a few posters kicking around methodology for pointy heads. I can’t say I follow every word of it (I most assuredly DO NOT! LOL), but the gist was almost graspable.
When there is so much good fare on offer, why even bother reading Eddy’s bile, let alone responding to it?
Your right Kirri,
I have enjoyed lots of the other poster there, Bushfire Bill, Dyspnoea, to name but a few. And the true pseph sites like Possum’s are way above my flat head.
However – It’s no longer fun.
I’ll just stay here with the lovely people on this site.
Well there goes the axis of evil:
PARIS — The Bush administration is considering establishing an American diplomatic presence in Iran for the first time since relations were severed during the 444-day occupation of the American Embassy in Tehran nearly three decades ago, European and American officials said on Thursday.
Talk tough, invade the neighbours, make an ass of yourself with human rights, and then finally work out that it’s not advancing your aims.
320 Chris B
Hope you are factoring in the Diebold machine” everytime you have a machine fix.
it has to be a significant unknown variable for sure.
347 jen Think of the positive side. South Americans have turned sharp left. Various shades of, because of George Bush watching Iraq. Most of the death squads have gone, that has saved hundreds of lives. But it cannot match the deaths in Iraq. Strip mining has been thrown out in lots of countries. They are finally starting to slowly stand on their own two feet although they still have a long way to go. Peace has come a long way.
The rout the Democrats are about to inflict on the Repugs would not have been possible without George Bush. This will change the US system for ever. It will also have flow on effects around the world 🙂
What happened one minute this thread was closed, now it’s open again? Is it that sneaky Catrina being naughty?
Geez Chris- I’m afriad I think you are drawing a long bow. If something/anything positive has happened under Bush then i can only assume that even more would have if he had never entered the oval office.
As for the negatives ………… unspeakable.
You’re spot on about the negatives, but I am certain if Bush hadn’t have been busy elsewhere he would have invaded Venezuela. The reason he would have given. They’re a bunch of commies and our citizens are in danger. The actual reason Venezuela is the biggest supplier of oil to the USA.
“They’re a bunch of commies and our citizens are in danger” is the reason the invaded Grenada under Ronald Regan.
Peru and Bolivia also now have hard left wing governments, or commies as Bush would have called them. Both full of rich oil and gas fields. The countries are taking control of their own natural resources, which is why the are starting to stand on their own two feet. I could see George Bush ringing his hands at the thought of invading more countries with oil and gas.
Maybe he could find weapons of mass destruction?
FranklyI think we’re lucky he didn’t invade New Zealand. all that wool…
Here Jen I thought you would like some very interesting reading.
Chavez assassination row erupts.
New Bolivia leader promises poll
Venezuela hits BP with tax bill
Venezuela marks coup anniversary
The BBC site has masses of articles leading from these sites, including information on the death squads and American connections to them. This is just the tip of the iceberg. Great reading.
I thought Tasmania would be the first to go 🙂
If they blow Tasmania up, moralist won’t have to put up with map of Tasmania jokes.
Then the “moral majority” have got to work on getting rid of the American version the Bermuda Triangle.
It’s not me – I’m innocent!
That’s what they all say. It’s the innocent ones that are dangerous.
Jen That Pat Robertson has HUGE connections to the Bush administration. As seen here:
and here is Pat Robertson himself:
For those that don’t know. Here is Pat Robertson calling for the assassination of Hugo Chavez president of Venezuela:
Read this and then watch the video’s above.
This thread is getting a bit long – can we start up a new thread?
Swing Lowe at 370
New thread is up!