This article, http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/08/obamas_big_7.html, caught my attention. While I realise that Obama and the Democrats have money to burn at this point, all the evidence to date indicates that this is going to be a much tighter election than many previously believed. On current polling, if McCain can hold Virginia then he needs Michigan and one other state (Indiana the likely one) in order to pull of a surprise victory.
As such, Obama spending money in North Dakota, North Carolina, Montana, Georgia, and Alaska seems a little bit of a waste. After all, even if we assume that he wins in North Dakota and Montana say, those six electoral votes will not get him the presidency. North Carolina is obviously a better place to attack, given its 15 electoral votes. But it would be a big ask for Obama to win North Carolina.
Instead, it would be far more useful to simply concentrate on Michigan, Indiana, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio. (I discount Florida, as the polls are going back to McCain there – I even tend to discount Indiana, but given that the polls tell us that it is close, and I go by the polls). It is in those states that this election will be won or lost. The others are effectively irrelevant.
As such, I think that Obama is wasting time and money in those states. There are 90 days to go in this election campaign and at this point in time the momentum – according to the polls – is with McCain. Time to get back to political reality. A fifty-state strategy might be a nice little dream, but that is all it ever was. A five-state strategy is what is needed to win this thing.