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Open Thread

Is Obama wasting time and money?

This article, http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/08/obamas_big_7.html, caught my attention. While I realise that Obama and the Democrats have money to burn at this point, all the evidence to date indicates that this is going to be a much tighter election than many previously believed. On current polling, if McCain can hold Virginia then he needs Michigan and one other state (Indiana the likely one) in order to pull of a surprise victory.

As such, Obama spending money in North Dakota, North Carolina, Montana, Georgia, and Alaska seems a little bit of a waste. After all, even if we assume that he wins in North Dakota and Montana say, those six electoral votes will not get him the presidency. North Carolina is obviously a better place to attack, given its 15 electoral votes. But it would be a big ask for Obama to win North Carolina.

Instead, it would be far more useful to simply concentrate on Michigan, Indiana, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio. (I discount Florida, as the polls are going back to McCain there – I even tend to discount Indiana, but given that the polls tell us that it is close, and I go by the polls).  It is in those states that this election will be won or lost. The others are effectively irrelevant.

As such, I think that Obama is wasting time and money in those states. There are 90 days to go in this election campaign and at this point in time the momentum – according to the polls – is with McCain. Time to get back to political reality. A fifty-state strategy might be a nice little dream, but that is all it ever was. A five-state strategy is what is needed to win this thing.

651 replies on “Is Obama wasting time and money?”

Move aside and let me at them. But I suspect they are in much better position than I am. The campaign is not yet in full swing, I still think after the Olympics.

Chris B,

That is a bit harsh! 🙂

The congressional elections will be a landslide, basically. But they will not get a filibuster proof majority at this election.

They will pick up some governors, and not lose any.

They will win the presidency – but not by a landslide.

I would be pretty happy with that result. 🙂

David Gould at 98

But, but, … there is a known unknown here. Democrats have not campaigned in a bunch of red states for eons simply because they have assumed that they are unwinable. What is happening here is that a Democratic party campaign is being executed and that fact is important in that Democrats are showing interest for the first time in a very long time – and that will have an impact but the impact is the unknown component of the known unknown.

Catrina at 86,

I agree that based on the information that we have, Indiana and Virginia are in play. I am not sure about North Carolina, given the consistency of the polling there for McCain. I would not spend my money there. I am not sure about Indiana, either, but I give the polling the benefit of any personal doubts that I have about it, which is why Indiana and Viriginia are in my five-state strategy.

I also agree that the conventions should generate great interest and the polling from that point will give us much better information.

91 Swing Lowe Thanks for joining us we can do with some curry.

David Gould, all parties are all ready taking into account of the poll in two years, both sides are floating candidates. These are extremely important, due to redistricting. The Democrats will not blow any advantage they have for the next two years. Even if it is minute.

Catrina at 104,

The Democrats are showing an interest because of particular electoral factors, factors which I think that the Obama camp is misreading.

As an example, just because a conservative dude with a Democrat tie is going to win in a southern district does not mean that Obama has a chance in hell of doing the same.

As another example, just because more black voters are going to turn out in North Carolina and Georgia this year does not mean that the gap is going to close significantly.

In other words, it is certainly interesting that the Democrats are looking at southern states for the first time since 1996 (remember that Clinton won quite a few southern states). However, I think that it is a strategy born out of enthusiasm, not one born out of serious evaluation of the costs and benefits involved. The current numbers tell us that it is a waste of time and money.

Arvo, Bludgers, the below link is germaine to our discussion, so I’m posting it first and then back to read the comments since yesterday.

Popular Vote v. Electoral College (Why The Media Badly Needs A History Lesson)

Despite Barack Obama’s (D) amazingly consistent lead throughout the general election over John McCain (R), the talking heads on cable television returned to their incessant bloviating over whether Obama should be leading by more than just five points over McCain. It’s really painful to watch these fools who don’t bother to pay attention to history to understand how a five-point popular vote victory almost always translates when it comes to the only metric that matters — the Electoral College. (Hint: landslide)

So, rather than expect that someone will take a peek at historical data, I figured I’d go ahead and do it myself.

Below are the results from the last 20 presidential elections, listing the Electoral Vote margin by the winner over the loser (or second place finisher), as well as the popular vote margin.

Year Winner EV Margin Pop Vote Margin
2004 Bush………. 36……………….2.4
2000 Bush……….4………………. -0.5
1996 Clinton…….220…………….. .8.5
1992 Clinton……. 202…………….. .5.6
1988 Bush………. 315……………….7.8
1984 Reagan……. 512……………. 18.2
1980 Reagan……. 440…………….. 9.7
1976 Carter………. 57………………2.1
1972 Nixon ………503…………….. 23.2
1968 Nixon……… 110 ……………….0.7
1964 Johnson…… 434…………….. 22.6
1960 Kennedy…… 84………………..0.1
1956 Eisenhower..384………………15.4
1952 Eisenhower. 353…………….. 10.9
1948 Truman ……114……………… 4.5
1944 Roosevelt… 333……………… 7.5
1940 Roosevelt…. 367……………… 9.9
1936 Roosevelt… 515……………. 24.3
1932 Roosevelt… 413……………. 17.7
1928 Hoover…….. 357……………. 17.4

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-nickolas/popular-vote-v-electoral_b_117525.html

Chris B,

Parties plan ahead. They need to. But – and this is the important thing – basing plans for five to 10 years out on the current political climate is not sensible.

(And I would also add that given the US’s current economic situation it is no guarantee that the Democrats will be able to hold the presidency in four years time. It is going to get a lot worse before it gets better, and during that time the Democrats are going to control everything – not necessarily the best thing to try and sell … )

Whilst previous polls have shown Indiana to be in play for Obama, it is worth remembering that most of the polls in IN have been taken before McCain started reversing Obama’s overall national lead.

I think we should wait until the next set of polls from IN to see whether it is truly in play (like VA) or whether it is going to be a teaser for Obama (like NC)…

EC at 109,

I think that article misses two crucial points.

First of all, so many things are in the Democratic Party’s favour at this election, so a five-point lead (and the current RCP average is 3.6, I might add, not five), can certainly be considered to be unexpectedly small.

Secondly, while the article talks about EVs as being all important, it does not examine the state break down.

On current polling, there are a few key states which could go either way. A state with 20 electoral votes – Ohio – translates to an EV lead of 40. A victory by two states – Ohio and Florida – translates to an EV lead of 104. If we add in Penn, you get an EV lead of 136. So, is a victory by 3 states a landslide? It is an EV landslide, I suppose. But it is still a close election if those states are only won by a few per cent each …

Thanks for the site, Chis B. 🙂

I still do not see how this would not be showing up already in the national polling. In other words, if more women intend to vote, wouldn’t we see that in the polls?

David Gould at 94 and Chris B at 96

No thanks guys. What we need is someone complimentary with Obama, someone with the same ideals, and someone who will work well in the next administration. I don’t see Clinton fitting that profile.

And, by the way, I know that I come across as pessimistic for Obama. I want to reiterate that I think, and the current numbers indicate, that he will win.

David Gould at 121

Who would be your pick?

That question is a lot harder. I’d happy with Kathleen Sebelius, Tim Kaine, or Evan Bayh. I know the Sebelius option is tricky given that the other girl just refuses to sit down, but all the same I like the way she and Obama click and I like her background. Tim Kayne brings in an interesting dimension in that the roots are all classic American military family and the guy has managed his political career outside of the Washington circuit. Evan Bayh seems like a safe pick in that what I’ve seen of him he seems to think before he opens his mouth and doesn’t get distracted by the noise.

But I can’t say that I have a specific favorite.

103 David Gould Unfortunately the elections are on a two year cycle in the USA. Which makes it very hard to do anything. 2010 is the last of the tri annual senate elections for the Bushites. Regardless of whether the Democrats get a filibuster proof majority this time the will in 2010. I think the Democrats have 12 seats up for grabs and the Repugs have 19 seats. I agree anything can happen 5 years from now, but 2 is much easier. I agree with you any win is better than none. 🙂

The Strange Death of Republican America.

George W. Bush’s second term has witnessed the great unraveling of the Republican coalition. After nearly two generations of political dominance, the Republican coalition has rapidly disintegrated under the stress of Bush’s failures and the Republicans’ scandals and disgrace. The Democrats have the greatest possible opening in more than a generation – potentially. They should pay strict attention to how Bush has swiftly undone Republican strengths as an object lesson.

Everybody. 😆 😆 😆 Please take note of this next paragraph. 😆 😆 😆

In 2004, Bush swaggered through his reelection campaign, still swept along on the momentum from September 11. After the reelection victory, Rove’s former political deputy and Republican National Committee chairman Ken Mehlman said, “If there’s one empire I want built, it’s the George Bush empire.”

😆 😆

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig9/blumental1.html

111 Swing Lowe Yeah. I’m interested in seeing the next lot of polls too. But I suspect it won’t be till after the Olympics, that it starts to shake things up.

What will be very interesting, will be to see if anyone stuffs up during the Olympics. Remember George Bush ran some during the last Olympics, and got howled down for inappropriate advertising. Will anyone make the same mistake?

Swing Lowe and David Gould I think if the Democrats did not win in a landslide there would be a lot of dissatisfaction in the Democratic Party. Especially from Hillary supporters and me. Of course they’ll take notice of me. NOT.

“114 David Gould
EC at 109,

I think that article misses two crucial points.

First of all, so many things are in the Democratic Party’s favour at this election, so a five-point lead (and the current RCP average is 3.6, I might add, not five), can certainly be considered to be unexpectedly small.

Secondly, while the article talks about EVs as being all important, it does not examine the state break down.”

David, the article also makes a couple of excellent arguments.
On your first point: that’s what the polls say now, let’s watch the trends as more voters switch-on after Beijing.

And your second: here’s a state by state appraisal. Scroll down to map for intrade ECVs which indicate a 41 ECV buffer. A different kind of “poll” sure, but as Possum explains, Intrade has been more accurate than the polls over many years.

http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2008/08/04/us-election-update-august-edition/

DG, we are in accord over an Obama victory, you say just, I say heaps. Perhaps when jv (jaundiced view), our superbly organised competition co-odinator gets election junky monkey on his back again

Sheesh, hit “Shift” (I think) while goofing-off and it posted unfinished……

Continuing sentence interruptus:
he (jv) will organise anothery and we can put Australia’s finest grape products where our extraordinarily humble opinions are:)

hy•poc•ri•sy
–noun, plural -sies.
1. a pretense of having a virtuous character, moral or religious beliefs or principles, etc., that one does not really possess.
2. a pretense of having some desirable or publicly approved attitude.
3. an act or instance of hypocrisy.

[Origin: 1175–1225; ME ipocrisie < OF < LL hypocrisis < Gk hypókrisis play acting, equiv. to hypokr (nesthai) to play a part, explain (hypo- HYPO- + kr nein to distinguish, separate) + -sis -SIS; h- (reintroduced in 16th century) < L and Gk ]

—Synonyms 1. See DECEIT.

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57364

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57362

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57337

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57369

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57374

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57380

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57327

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57162

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57308

Kirribilli Removals @ 64….”You get the feeling the tide has only just started to run out….”

Yes, KR, “tidal” is exactly the right term. The impetus is just as irresistable. There’s been some very troubling signs recent days, including especially the decline in the AUD. The market trades the battler as a proxy for Asia and the metals market. I am in an export-oriented industry and have never seen anything like the dive of the last few weeks. The drop improves prices for exporters, so is welcome enough, but I have this feeling that the AUD is dropping for all the wrong reasons: namely, the long boom is over and the bust is just over the crest of the next hill.

As far as all this relates to the US political campaigns, I tend t think that Obama should be trying to win in the pale red states as well as the close-run blues. The Republicans will fight like rabid dogs and every EC vote might count in the end. Besides, Obama has summoned the faithful to his cause. He has to be there for them too (imho).

I think the expectation that Obama should be miles in front is a bit misplaced. The US electorate has been conservatively wired for a couple of decades now – certainly since Reagan – and there is a very widespread mistrust of the political process and all the players. It is a sad question, but who can say that Americans have good reason to trust their political institutions? Obama is “change” personified and will win providing Americans can be encouraged to feel that change will not only be good for the country but good for them personally. This is not necessarily an easy sell. Change is always accompanied by risk. If voters come to believe that the riskier choice is to refuse change, then Obama will have his landslide.

In any case, I do think McCain is really going to struggle to lift his numbers up to the high 40’s, let alone into the 50’s. To do this, he has to take numbers away from Obama, but the numbers for Obama are really quite stable even if they do sway a little here and there.

Copper for delivery in three months fell $223, or 2.9 percent, to $7,442 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. Prices have dropped 12 percent since June.

“The overriding theme of a weaker demand side is still prevailing,” Daniel Hynes, an analyst at Merrill Lynch & Co. in London, said today by phone.

Aluminum, nickel, tin, lead and zinc also dropped.

Ten of 19 analysts and traders surveyed yesterday and Aug. 6 forecast copper will fall next week. Eight expected an increase and one was neutral.

Gold Declines

Gold fell to an eight-week low in London on speculation dollar gains will spur sales by investors who bought the metal as an alternative to earlier declines in the U.S. currency.

Gold for immediate delivery declined $12.80, or 1.5 percent, to $860.25 an ounce, the lowest since June 13. Gold rose to as high as $1,032.70 on March 17.

“The situation in gold is not very good,” said Mario Innecco, a futures broker at MF Global Ltd. in London. “A lot of people are saying if we break $850, we’re going to $600.”

Silver fell 40 cents, or 2.5 percent, to $15.80 an ounce after earlier falling to $15.77 an ounce, the lowest since Jan. 23. Prices are down 9.4 percent this week, the biggest drop since March 21.

Robusta coffee headed for its biggest decline in four weeks on London’s Liffe exchange. The contract for September delivery fell $22, or 0.9 percent, to $2,353 a ton. The beans have slipped 3.2 percent this week, the steepest drop since the week ending July 11.

Palm Oil Slides

Coffee is falling “probably mostly because the dollar is gaining against the euro,” Eugen Weinberg, a commodities analyst at Commerzbank AG, said by phone from Frankfurt. “The whole commodities sector is weak, from crude to industrial metals.”

Cocoa and white, or refined, sugar also dropped on Liffe.

Palm oil in Malaysia posted a fifth weekly loss as higher seasonal output and declines in crude oil and soybeans reduced demand for the commodity as a substitute in fuel and cooking.

Palm oil futures for October delivery fell 66 ringgit, or 2.3 percent, to 2,779 ringgit ($842) a metric ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange. The contract dropped to a nine- month low of 2,700 ringgit this week, and closed 5.8 percent lower.
right on cue, bloomberg obliges with the market story:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBvwUS.3M7U0&refer=home

Soybean meal in Chicago slumped after India, Asia’s biggest supplier of the livestock feed, said it may ship a record quantity next year after rain in the biggest growing regions encouraged increased soybean planting.

Soybean meal for December delivery dropped as much as $5.40, or 1.6 percent, to $327.30 a ton in after-hours electronic trading on the Chicago Board Of Trade. Wheat, corn and soybeans also declined on the bourse.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCwo3Dc8DVM0&refer=home

meanwhile, the money machinery is grinding to a halt…

Hedge Fund Outlook Is `Much Worse’ Than 1998, LTCM Veteran Says
By Tom Cahill

Aug. 8 (Bloomberg) — The $1.9 trillion hedge fund industry, mired in its worst performance in two decades, faces “much worse” conditions than in 1998, when Long-Term Capital Management LP collapsed, a veteran of that fund said.

“It’s definitely a trickier environment,” said Hans Hufschmid, chief executive officer of GlobeOp Financial Services LP, and a former partner at LTCM and co-head of its London office. “The market is much worse that it was in 1998. Then it was just LTCM, but this impacts everybody.”

Hedge funds are concerned for the first time about risks related to prime brokers after Bear Stearns Cos.’ forced merger with JPMorgan Chase & Co., said Hufschmid, 52, whose London-based company is administrator to funds managing about $104 billion.

Banks and brokerages have written down $495 billion and raised $356 billion in capital since the start of 2007 as the U.S. subprime mortgage market collapsed. Banks’ increasing reluctance to lend has hurt hedge-fund operations, Hufschmid said in a telephone interview yesterday.

“Hedge funds live on credit and leverage and the ability to finance esoteric positions for a long time,” said Hufschmid. “To the extent liquidity is drying up as it is now, that becomes more difficult.”

Greenwich, Connecticut-based LTCM leveraged $2.3 billion of capital into holdings of about $125 billion before its collapse, which roiled financial markets and led to a bailout organized by the Federal Reserve. The company lost $4.6 billion and received a $3.5 billion bailout from 14 lenders in 1998.

Democratic Convention details are emerging …

Monday: Ted Kennedy
Tuesday: Hillary Clinton (probably with an intro from Chelsea)
Wednesday: Bill Clinton
Thursday: Barack Obama and VP

Bo-Bo, that’s a neat summary of Australia’s economic prospects. With commodities prices falling along with the AUD and the subprime disaster barely half run, where would you suggest is the safest place for canny investors to park their cash?

Obi’s just popped off to Aloha-Land for a 10 day break, so it appears there will be no Dem Veep announcements till after The Games. Very smart move from Team Kid; let the TV ads do the talkin’ for him while the voters are otherwise engaged. Johnny Bomb-Bomb will have to drop his daks on Fox to cut through the orgy of Olympic “haze”, hype, sport and skullduggery.

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57240

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57242

DG, The Kid has also got the Force Multiplyer to draw more ECVs his way.

You might wonder what a series of posts about organizing are doing on a website dedicated to electoral projections. The answer is that organizing, ground game, and partisan energy are often hidden factors unaccounted for by polling.

Re your suggestion BHO has poor prospects in VA, try this.

In Virginia’s case, that translates to nearly 68,000 extra votes for Obama uncaptured by pollsters in current polling. Given that Virginia’s general election turnout was 3.2M in 2004 and projecting turnout of 3.5M in 2008, banking 68,000 new votes means Obama would start out with a 1.9%-to-2.0%* structural advantage.

*author’s typo

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/force-multiplier.html
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http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57314 McDrill

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57346

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57355

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57359

blindoptimist at 137-140

Have your considered writing a PBUS post? Your name in bold up on the top right of every page, international fame and fortune awaits you. Author, published in multiple languages, include it on your CV!

Yes you can!!

🙂

In the meantime …

John Edwards, exit stage left.

In an interview for broadcast tonight on Nightline, Edwards told ABC News correspondent Bob Woodruff he did have an affair with 42-year old Rielle Hunter, but said that he did not love her.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/08/abc_edwards_admits_affair.php

But on to more important things …

Remember several weeks ago there was that thing about Obama doing his acceptance speech at the Mile High stadium and at the time the media were saying it was a risk taking on a 70,000 attendance criteria? Well, …

Colorado’s tickets to see Barack Obama’s acceptance speech at Invesco Field at Mile High were more than spoken for within about 24 hours, officials said, and the application process closed Thursday for all but those willing to be put on a waiting list.

Obama’s campaign set aside for Colorado half of the more than 60,000 seats available to the public for the final night of the Democratic National Convention. It turns out the battleground state could have filled the stadium, as the campaign ended applications after collecting more than 60,000 Thursday afternoon.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/08/seats_for_obamas_convention_sp.php

I guess it’s that celebrity thing.

Talking about celebrities, here is an interesting video of a Republican celebrity, a war hero and 2008 presidential candidate named John McCain.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWX5u69hmzY

the whole premise of this thread is silly, i think. Obama is a smart cookie, he beat Clinton, he is very well organised. Now, why would he WASTE money?? He may spend some in states he cant win, but isnt this to spook McCain and make his campaign devote resources to safe states?? Remember, Obama has a great financial advantage, and I am sure he will expoit his, and spend enough in the states he needs to win

and Cat, with your convention schedule, are you saying Hilary is NOT VP?? What a relief.

Cartrina @ 144, I am more than happy to oblige and have been thinking about it. Annoyingly, I’ve also been been busy at work so have not done much more than think. But I will come up with something for our esteemed fellow bludgers to chew on.

Jesus H. Christ!! It’s still all about Hillary. In circumstances like this, decent folk position themselves around a STFU approach. But not Mrs.Clinton. You see, no one has publicly suffered the pain of infidelity like HRC.
Brutusina is praying for the Edwards family. That’s right folks, Senator Clinton is openly invoking the assistance of her Big Guy in The Sky because Carolina Johnny admitted to being a serial stray rooter. Mr. Edwards still loves wife Elizabeth apparently, but they all say that when they’re sprung.

Rielle Hunter told “Extra” “she traveled with Edwards for six months and spent a great deal of time with him saying, ‘I was around him a lot. It was great. We went to Africa.We had an awful lot time on our hands nights, lions were bellowing on the Serengeti, baser instincts took control of our better angels so I just gave him one. Well, quite a few, actually. The whole experience was life altering for me…….It was all my fault that John took those $400 haircuts. John’s a very attentive man, he knew I liked my “gentleman callers” well groomed”.

John Edward’s father worked in a coal mine. “My daddy worked in a coal mine”, John Edwards said.

Edwards denies in the interview that he’s the father of Rielle Hunter’s baby even though he has not taken a paternity test. The American Hairdressers Guild have noted that the child, Frances, has “more bounce than average” in her coiffure and her “crowning glory” is of similar hue as that of the former Democratic Vice-Presidential candidate.
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http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/bensargent;_ylt=AiPrcYpHyuBW1wVZprzTbXFN_b4F
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Yes Bo-Bo, thanks, cash does seem to be king
for the next year ot two. Looking forward to your debut thread.

Obama Beating McCain in a Landslide.

While America has gotten used to neck and neck Presidential races in the last two elections, this race is not close at all. The national polls simply don’t tell the whole story. In truth, any election that has a popular vote margin of 3% or greater ends in an electoral blow out.

While everybody loves a close race, especially the news networks who have committed so many resources to covering this election, if the election were held today, Obama would win hands down.

The latest three polls (Gallup, TIME, CBS News) have Obama leading in the popular vote anywhere from 3% to 6%. When one takes into account the state by state polls and their electoral vote (EV) value, the electoral map paints a very different picture of this election.

http://www.examiner.com/x-558-Politics-Examiner~y2008m8d8-Obama-Beating-McCain-in-a-Landslide

Jon Stewart: We just heard that Iraq has announced an 80-billion dollar surplus. How are they gonna spend this money?
John Oliver: Well John, like everything in Iraq now, it is up for reasoned discussion. Some have suggested a few infrastructure improvements and then socking the rest away. Others would like to construct a giant bed, cover it with all the money, and then let everyone in the country just roll around on it Scrooge McDuck-style. Others still would like to hire a mercenary army like Blackwater to drive out the infidel American force.
—The Daily Show
–
“President Bush is on a week-long tour of Asia. He’ll visit South Korea, Thailand, and China. Or as the White House calls it: the Everything Sold At Wal-Mart tour.”
—Jay Leno
–
“Now, to highlight what a charade proper air pressure is, the McCain campaign has started handing out Barack Obama ‘Energy Plan’ tire gauges. You see, it’s a great way to drive home what a ridiculous plan this is. Plus, it’s an easy way to check your tire pressure, and that can save you a lot of money. That’s not just me talking. The government’s own website says that proper tire inflation can save up to 12 cents a gallon immediately. So thank you for the tire gauge, Senator McCain. And good work. You stuck it to all the left-wing nutjobs who advocate proper tire inflation. Radical liberals like your potential vice presidential nominee, Florida Governor Charlie Crist, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Joe Lieberman, Triple A and the pinkos over at NASCAR. I’ve had my eyes on those guys ever since they had that car sponsored by the ACLU.”
—Stephen Colbert
–
“Security is very tight for the Olympics in China, which has been very hard on the locals there. Many stores and factories in Beijing have been forced to close, and people have been forced out of their houses. Sort of like here in the United States, only for them it ends in a couple of weeks.”
—Jimmy Kimmel
–
“There’s excitement in the air over the Olympics…also lead, arsenic, benzene…”
—David Letterman
–
“The skies over Beijing are very smoggy. The government says the pollution is just a harmless mist. They made a similar statement about the treatment of prisoners—it’s not torture, it’s Pilates.”
—Craig Ferguson

Gags courtesy of:
http://bill-in-portland-maine.dailykos.com/

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57374

http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=AmIPd5OdCAHd7HJgoCgJMTVR_b4F

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/opinion/cartoons/

http://politicalhumor.about.com/od/politicalcartoons/ig/Political-Cartoons/Beijing-Events.-Uc4.htm

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57386

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57391

“When a supermarket tabloid told a version of the story, I used the fact that the story contained many falsities to deny it. But being 99% honest is no longer enough.”

John “Cheater” Edwards.

The political Fling-Flam Man was never a chance at Veep with something like this lurking beneath the zeitgeist. Good timing to “come clean” now with the rubes locked and loaded with The 5 Ringsfest. Reckon Edwards-gate won’t make it easier for Obi to pull conservative church-goin’ punters to the polls in States like NC and VA, but it won’t necessarily cruel nim either, as long as Edwards withdraws to the political periphery and behaves in a manner that affords wife, Elizabeth, maximum dignity. How they sort their marriage ain’t nobody elses bidness but their own.
otoh, if Edwards does a Newt Gingrich, ditches his seriously ill wife and then “shacks-up with the home-breaker”, then could bring Team Obi a spot of grief in a couple of crucial demographics.

At least it didn’t turn into a Thomas Eagleton farce when a “scandal” sufaced after the Dems had nominated Tom Eagleton as their VP nominee.

1972 Presidential Campaign

Selection as Vice Presidential Candidate:
In 1972, Richard Nixon appeared unbeatable. When Senator George McGovern won the Democratic nomination for President, virtually all of the high-profile Democrats such as Ted Kennedy, Walter Mondale and Birch Bayh turned down offers to run on the ticket.

Having been declined by the “name” Senators, McGovern turned to lesser-known candidates, and Eagleton, who had opposed the Vietnam War, was selected on July 14 with only a minimal background check. Eagleton made no mention of his earlier hospitalizations. Newspapers soon revealed them. McGovern and Eagleton initially joked about the case with Eagleton saying he would undergo a psychiatric examination if other candidates (e.g., Nixon) would do the same. But the charges kept coming.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Eagleton

Franken wins over McCollum support.

The congresswoman had voiced concern over past writings, but backs his bid to unseat Sen. Norm Coleman.

DFL Senate candidate Al Franken won the backing Friday of U.S. Rep. Betty McCollum, who was the most prominent Minnesota Democrat to publicly raise questions this year about potentially offensive material from his comedic past.

In a statement posted on her campaign website, the Fourth District congresswoman said that the problems facing American families — health care, the economy and the Iraq war — require more Democrats to be elected to the U.S. Senate to beat back what she called “the obstructionist Republican minority.”

http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/senate/26425964.html?elr=KArksi8cyaiUqPk4DyCc75DiUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUU

Andrew at 146,

Just because Obama is smart and well organised does not mean that he and his team cannot make mistakes. They are not infallible supermen, no matter how much we might wish they were.

Kirri the 0000000’s can be added without fear to Fannies down Trou!

Fannie Friday says to Freddie “Anything you can do i can do better” as she drops a cool $2.3 Bil compared to Freddies 817mil. Among other things Fannie is going to review “defaulted loans for lessons and mistakes”.

Following in the footsteps of Freddie Mac, which reported quarterly losses on Wednesday, Fannie Mae today announced a net loss of $2.3 billion, or $2.54 per diluted share, in 2008’s second quarter.

http://www.builderonline.com/mortgages-and-banking/fannie-reports-fourth-straight-quarterly-loss.aspx

157 Gaffhook

Like I said Gaffer, there’s was bound to be plenty more losses to follow…and they don’t do it by halves, do they? LOL

DG at 156, I didnt mean to suggest that Obama was infallible. I just dont think he would “waste” money

Chris B at 151, thanks for the reality check. I think we get conned by the MSM at times, trying to paint this as a close race. That being said, I find it incredible that McCain is still within 3-6% of Obama: the economy is tanking, the repugs are on the nose, McCain very unpopular Iraq policy etc etc. It helps to have MSM friends I suppose

Eliot Spitzer, now John Edwards, those Democrats are, shock horror, real rooters, eh? Oh well, at least he’s not soliciting in the public loo…we should be thankful for that at least! LOL

What is amazing is that people seem genuinely surprised that baby-face John would cheat on his wife. Given what we know about the egos of politicians, how could that possibly come as a surprise?

Once this hits the headlines it is game set and match. It would be a great idea to put it in as many blogs as possible.

While McCain was a P.O.W. in Vietnam, his first wife, model Carol Shepp, was seriously injured in a horrific traffic accident in which she was thrown through the windshield. She didn’t mention this in her letters to him in Vietnam to keep his morale up. When he got back and saw her 4 inches shorter, seriously overweight, and on crutches, he began having affairs. One piece of indisputable evidence is the fact that he obtained a license to marry wealthy beer heiress Cindy Hensley on March 6, 1980, while still legally married to Carol. Here is the L.A. Times story but if you type: McCain adultery to Google, you’ll get 500,000 hits. Journalistic standards ought to require that if Edwards cheating on his sick wife is an indication of a deep moral flaw, then McCain cheating on his sick wife ought to be the same thing. And McCain is a candidate for President; Edwards is not.

http://www.electoral-vote.com

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=McCain+Adultery+&btnG=Google+Search 😈

Chris at 164-166

A much more useful thing would be to dig up the divorce certificate and the marriage certificate. If there is an overlap then one could claim a case backed by evidence. Until then this is somewhat academic – after all, the story has been around for months and the only new thing now is the fact that the Los Angeles Times has chosen this moment to reprint an old story without referencing any new concrete information. Also something to consider when digging into the facts is that a marriage license is different from a marriage certificate (it’s somewhat akin to the difference between a license to drill as opposed to actual drilling – and please note that I’m not attempting to raise any significant parallels here relative to my usage of the word ‘drilling’ nor am I suggesting that McCain’s second marriage was in any way related to speculation – financial or otherwise). The best that this story can deliver is that McCain may have been sleeping around while processing a divorce (but even that is not proven). That puts McCain on a higher pedestal relative to Bill Clinton or John Edwards – and you need to ask yourself – is that the message you want to sent to everyone in your directory?

But what is much more newsworthy is the following article from the Wall Street Journal …

The underreported economic news of the week is that Barack Obama favors a stronger dollar. Even better, he thinks a stronger greenback would help to reduce oil prices.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121815226803922393.html

Thanks Catrina, the McCain has been sleeping around thing would have a big influence on the Christian vote, I suspect.

Good article in the WSJ. Thanks.

If the Democrats want Obama to win, they have to get rough.

A growing number of Democrats suspect that relentless attacks by McCain and the Republican party may be taking a toll on Obama. Indeed, despite the political tailwinds at Obama’s back, and the smooth execution of his vaunted overseas tour last month, he maintains a conspicuously modest lead over his Republican rival. And even as the Obama brand underperforms, the McCain brand is overperforming.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/10/barackobama.johnmccain

America burning: racists say Obama must die.

In an interview on Fox News, Railton Loy, Grand Wizard of the National Knights of the Ku Klux Klan International, said of Obama’s presidential campaign: “I’m not going to have to worry about him, because somebody else down south is going to take him out… If that man is elected president, he’ll be shot sure as hell. The hate would be so deep down south.”

http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/world/America-burning-racists-say-Obama.4375120.jp

Now this could be great, or it could induce a coma. We need a Socrates or a KR to decipher…:)

The New Science of Saturation Macroeconomics

There are two great utilities of nonstochastic saturation macroeconomics and time based quantum fractal patterns of asset valuations. Paradoxically the first is qualitative. This empirically and repetitively validated simple mathematical construct – meeting the definition of a true science- provides a summation umbrella framework to understand the feedback and self limiting nature of the by-its-individual-parts complex global macroeconomic system. The second utility is the new science’s predictive power in determining the system’s exact asymptotic saturation limits and the over valuation-oversupply-debt-wage axis causing necessary and predictable nonlinear devaluation. It is by this new macroeconomic science’s qualitative and quantitative powers that massive deflation can be predicted with US Fed Fund rates, US treasuries, and long term US interest rates all to approach zero. Perhaps in this profound deflationary setting, nationalization of all private jobs and to some degree wealth will occur with inflation thereafter commencing. Gold, since 1932 has conformed to precise time-based valuation fractal patterns. Dollar denominated gold’s past and current time-based fractal valuations are predictive of a massive devaluation soon coming and conforming to a precise fractal decay pattern with a corollary massive destruction of supporting dollars. Gold’s valuation fractal decay will occur in synergistic fashion with the Wilshire’s timed based and predictable quantum fractal decay. The great and nonlinear loss of nominal wealth will have a profound effect on America’s entitlement programs.

ffs Blindoptimist… it’s sunday morning and you throw that up!…

now my head hurts 😉

And then there is this to ponder….

http://www.rgemonitor.com/us-monitor/253253/paul_krugman_a_slow-mo_meltdown

“……The “emergency economic plan” Barack Obama announced last week is a move in the right direction, although I wish it had been bigger and bolder.

Still, Mr. Obama is offering more than John McCain, whose economic policy mainly amounts to “stay the course.”

Incidentally, it’s surprising that the lousy economy hasn’t yet had more impact on the campaign. Mr. McCain essentially proposes continuing the policies of a president whose approval rating on economics is only 20 percent. So why isn’t Mr. Obama further ahead in the polls?

One answer may be that Mr. Obama, perhaps inhibited by his desire to transcend partisanship (and avoid praising the last Democratic president?), has been surprisingly diffident about attacking the Bush economic record. An illustration:… go to the official Obama Web site and click on the economic issues page, what you see first isn’t a call for change — what you see is a long quote from the candidate extolling the wonders of the free market, which could just as easily have come from a speech by President Bush…..”

morning spaminbox…it doesn’t go well with muesli, I’m the first to admit…:)

time to walk the dogs…back later..

Morning All,
Oh Bludgers, I am so ashamed. We havn’t medalled yet. Maybe Coates and Gosper will feel compelled to ritually self-disembowell tomorrow at dawn if our nation’s honour is not restored with fistfuls of Ozzie-brandished minted metal, oi?
————————-
Media Mules R-Us; the journey from journalism to stenography

Once again though, there’s no need for it to be this way. A newsroom full of Vulcan-like automatons — or, in reality, thinking, feeling people who’ve simply been led to believe that they need to bury the fiercely opinionated nature that’s the hallmark of every truly great journalist — does no one any good, least of all the public that the media purport to serve. ………..
Unless, of course, CNN has a plan to begin growing its future news staffers in a vat somewhere and sequestering them until they’re old enough to be hired.
Which, if the Orwellian tone of this new policy is any indication, it very well might.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chez-pazienza/policing-themselves-to-de_b_117737.html
————————

“There are two great utilities of nonstochastic saturation macroeconomics and time based quantum fractal patterns of asset valuations.”

Geez, Bo-Bo, as a practising non-stochasticist, I go all weak at the knees when you make with the econo dirty talk. Makes a bloke wanna cakewalk to the nearest patisserie and chow down on a pi chart:)

pi tart.

The Humour Deficit:

“The Humo(u)*r Deficit”: disturbing reports are surfacing that a majority of Leftish Seps have misplaced their funny bones. Forensic sociologists are investigating……….

This election is rife with historic opportunity, not least the fact that both candidates have made their reputations partly on the basis of unusual candor and good humor. But with twelve weeks to go, it’s looking as if we can’t handle the truth and can’t take a joke.

http://nymag.com/news/imperialcity/49124/

* inserted by commenter

“First gold the the Aussies. Women’s 400m medley to Rice.”

*removes paper bag enveloping head*

Not the last word on the Edwards’ affair, but not a bad slap from MoDo:

Back in 2002, Edwards sent me a Ken doll dressed in bathing trunks, Rio de Janeiro Ken, with a teasing note, because he didn’t like my reference to him as a Ken doll in a column.

In retrospect, the comparison was not fair — to Ken.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/10/opinion/10dowd.html?hp

…ouch!

Another polly gets hoist on his own petard…when will they ever learn?

DG in thread head: “A fifty-state strategy might be a nice little dream, but that is all it ever was. A five-state strategy is what is needed to win this thing.”

Well, David, would you buy a 22 State game?

The Obama campaign is not really running a 50-state campaign. Instead, they appear to be running an active operation in 22 states: Ohio (33 offices open), Virginia (28), Missouri (27), Florida (25), Wisconsin (23), Iowa (23), Michigan (22), New Mexico (18), Pennsylvania (18), Washington (18), New Hampshire (14), Indiana (14), North Carolina (11), Georgia (11), Colorado (10), Minnesota (9), Nevada (6), Oregon (6), Maine (6), Montana (6), North Dakota (4) and Alaska (4). For my money, the large number of offices open in states like Washington and Maine are unnecessarily defensive — and in Georgia, hopelessly offensive. But generally speaking, the Obama campaign’s distribution does a much better job of matching the Tipping Point map.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/obama-leads-better-than-31-in-field.html
——————-

http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/billschorr;_ylt=AiG9Rm7p.9Rtf9kURMHtY5De.sgF

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57344

http://www.stevefriess.com/podcast/don_rickles_frame.jpg

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57402

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57408

Dealing with Stop-Loss Kids:
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57407

Poor Mr Edwards. He was one of those statistics that goes to make up the recent surveys on who’s doin who and who aint payin.
There are some rather funny statistics hangin around in the land of the free. Free encompassing lots of things.

60% of loyal mutton gun totin American males do not mind a bit on the side as does one out of three Annie Oakleys.

How do they work out who it is in a small group of 6 men and 6 women.
Might be the car keys in the hat.

Wonder if they all go home and read the bible afterwards.

The survey, “Sex and the American Mom,” revealed that 34% of these married moms is in the midst of, or has already had, an affair. Think of three married moms you know and ask yourself, “Which one is cheating?” We tried this and Colleen came up empty. Taylor could think of one or two, but not one out of three–that number seems staggering.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/colleen-dealy-and-taylor-baldwin/sex-and-the-american-mom_b_101403.html

EC @ 183,

22 states is better than 50 – although, I still struggle to understand why Obama has offices open in GA, AK, MT and ND.

I guess it’s his money and he can spend whatever way he wants…

Kirribilli Removals @ 181…..”Not the last word on the Edwards’ affair, but not a bad slap from MoDo..”

Maureen puts together an effortless dish of scorn with indignation and vinegar. It’s part of her fox-lite repertoire.

More on the Edwards affair, and some very important information on adultery to keep in mind if you are going to the USA.

John Edwards’ former temporary girlfriend, Rielle Hunter, does not want him to take a paternity test. Her attorney said that she was a private person and she was convinced that Andrew Young is the father, something Young admits. Edwards says he broke off with Hunter more than 9 months prior to the birth of Hunter’s daughter. How come everybody’s got an attorney these days to speak for them? Is she worried about being indicted for adultery? In most states only the married person is legally guilty of adultery and it is not a crime everywhere. However, in Michigan the sentence is life imprisonment whereas in Maryland the punishment is a fine of $10.

Votemaster has some interesting points about the Christian vote as well.

http://www.electoral-vote.com

An good article for David and Swing Lowe, as well as those people who are feeling a bit negative about Obama’s campaign.

Why polls aren’t worrying Obama’s team.

Finally, for John McCain, a week to smile about. “Obama fatigue,” a virus that’s afflicted the GOP presidential candidate for sometime now, was discovered in a new Pew survey to have spread to 48 percent of the populace.

And recent national polls now place McCain and Barack Obama in a statistical dead heat. Gallup’s numbers have Obama 46, McCain 43.

RealClearPolitics’ national average is about the same, Obama 46.9 to McCain 43.3.

What does it mean? Next to nothing. And Obama’s team not only knows it, it thrives on it.

http://www.suntimes.com/news/marin/1099400,CST-EDT-carol10.article

Maybe Obama should challenge McCain to a series of jogging races to match the debates as well.

Just checking but are they having a debate using all the leaders from both sides sort of like a mass debate or is it just a small group discussion?

Swing Lowe: “I guess it’s his money and he can spend whatever way he wants…”

Yes, SL, GA seems a bit extravagant but Obi’s no mug to be placed where he is at this stage of the game. Kickin’ back in Hawaii:)
The wider the electoral net is cast, the more chance a candidate has of catching the voter-fish as they swim by. If the net is in a state of disrepair or is not prepared for casting, there is no chance of catching any as they mosey on by. Especially if the voter-fish (the bastards always move as a bunch) become agitated and there is a stampede which I believe they call a “run”, the salamander vote notwithstanding.

Obama’s Latin American strategies would repair damage of Bush years.

Although he has never stepped foot in Latin America, plans are in the works to have Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama visit northern Mexico in the coming weeks. And his new-found focus on the Americas should be understood within the context that Hispanics are now the fastest growing block of voters in the United States.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/NovaScotian/1072382.html

185 Swing Lowe A fifty state strategy, enables you to pull in money in 50 states. Texas is a very hard state for the Democrats to win. But they have been raking in the money there. It only a few new big donations to be economical. It’s not just about spending money. That is why Obama is bringing is so much money.

A couple of clips up on MSNBC’s Meet the Press. Both dealing with the subject of the US Economy in a dialog between Secretary of Treasury Henry Paulson and NBC’s Tom Brokaw.

Paulson: We have serious economic issues

Was the Market Crisis Foreseeable?

Beyond economics a bunch of talking heads take on the subject of “Readiness To Lead” and while the host (David Greggory) is attempting to dig a hole for Obama, the overall sense of the segment is a win for Obama.

Readiness To Lead

What a couple of days can do to change the landscape. Back on Friday we had the opening day of the Olympic Games and the escalation of the Georgia conflict into the 2008 South Ossetia War.

Obama’s immediate response was:

I strongly condemn the outbreak of violence in Georgia, and urge an immediate end to armed conflict. Now is the time for Georgia and Russia to show restraint, and to avoid an escalation to full scale war. Georgia’s territorial integrity must be respected. All sides should enter into direct talks on behalf of stability in Georgia, and the United States, the United Nations Security Council, and the international community should fully support a peaceful resolution to this crisis.

McCain’s paraphrased response was:

For many years, I have warned against Russian actions that undermine the sovereignty of its neighbors. Unfortunately, we have seen in recent days Russia demonstrate that these concerns were well-founded.

This afternoon I spoke, for the second time since the crisis began, with Georgian President Saakashvili. It is clear the situation is dire. Russian aggression against Georgia continues, with attacks occurring far beyond the Georgian region of South Ossetia. As casualties continue to mount, the international community must do all it can to avert further escalations. Tensions and hostilities between Georgians and Ossetians are in no way justification for Russian troops crossing an internationally recognized border. I again call on the Government of Russia to immediately and unconditionally withdraw its forces from the territory of Georgia.

…I am pleased the U.S. has agreed to facilitate the transfer of Georgian troops serving bravely in Iraq, who are now unfortunately needed to defend their own country

However, things have escalated somewhat with this latest statement from Obama:

I just spoke separately with Secretary Rice and President Saakashvili about the grave crisis in Georgia. I told President Saakashvili that I was deeply concerned about the well-being of the people of Georgia.

Over the last two days, Russia has escalated the crisis in Georgia through it’s clear and continued violation of Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. On Friday, August 8, Russian military forces invaded Georgia. I condemn Russia’s aggressive actions and reiterate my call for an immediate ceasefire. Russia must stop its bombing campaign, cease flights of Russian aircraft in Georgian airspace, and withdraw its ground forces from Georgia. Both sides should allow humanitarian assistance to reach civilians in need. Russia also must end its cyber war against Georgian government websites. Georgia’s territorial integrity must be respected.

I have a problem with the latest Obama statement. Russia has had internationally recognized peace keepers in South Ossetia since 1992, and while its easy to come up with statements about Georgian sovereignty, the reality is quite different. South Ossetia is just one of three autonomous republics wrapped within the Georgia borders and is actively allied with Russia. On top of all of this a strategic interest related to oil pipelines and a clear benefit to Russia in maintaining an unhealthy status quo in the region.

But where does it go from here relative to the election campaign? Will this be the talking-point from now until the conventions or is it just too far away to capture the political spotlight?

Only 2 weeks to go to the convention, and the start of the campaign. 😆

Michelle Obama to kick off Democratic Convention.

Michelle Obama will have a primetime speaking role at the Democratic National Convention.

The Democratic National Convention Committee (DNCC) and Sen. Barack Obama’s (Ill.) campaign announced the headline speakers for the August 25th through August 28th gathering in Denver.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) will address the convention on Tuesday and the vice presidential candidate will speak the following evening.

Michelle Obama will kick off the event with a primetime speech on Monday, August 25th.

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/michelle-obama-to-kick-off-democratic-convention-2008-08-10.html

186 blindoptimist

yeah,she does fluff pieces wrapped around a lead pipe. As she says, it’s not the sex, let’s be real, they’re all seasoned journos and have seen it all, it’s the lying. It’s the pure narcissism of thinking he could stand on the public stage and no one would notice he was bonking hi camp follower.

Breathtaking narcissism really.

Even the Republicans know they are doomed. This is Davis’s & Roves round about way of saying we’re fcuked.

Sen. McCain’s (Ariz.) campaign manager Rick Davis stated that, even though the Republican presidential candidate is an underdog to Obama, the campaign is happy with its current position in polls.

“‘John McCain is an underdog’ may be the understatement of the decade,” said Davis on “Fox News Sunday,” echoing Rove’s thoughts. “The mood of the country is very sour about the current administration. People don’t like the party as much as they did four years ago.”

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/rove-obama-should-be-way-ahead-2008-08-10.html

White supremacists say an Obama win may offer them a boost.

They’re not exactly rooting for Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., but prominent white supremacists anticipate a boost to their cause if he becomes president. His election, they say, would trigger a backlash — whites rising up, a revolution of sorts — that they think is long overdue.

He’d be a “visual aid,” says former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke, in trying to bring others around to the group’s view that whites have lost control of America. Obama’s election, says another, would jar whites into action, writing letters and handing out pamphlets rather than sitting around complaining.

While most Americans have little or no direct contact with white supremacists, organizations such as the Anti-Defamation League and the Southern Poverty Law Center keep close tabs.

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080810/NEWS15/808100442

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