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Open Thread

Is Obama wasting time and money?

This article, http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/08/obamas_big_7.html, caught my attention. While I realise that Obama and the Democrats have money to burn at this point, all the evidence to date indicates that this is going to be a much tighter election than many previously believed. On current polling, if McCain can hold Virginia then he needs Michigan and one other state (Indiana the likely one) in order to pull of a surprise victory.

As such, Obama spending money in North Dakota, North Carolina, Montana, Georgia, and Alaska seems a little bit of a waste. After all, even if we assume that he wins in North Dakota and Montana say, those six electoral votes will not get him the presidency. North Carolina is obviously a better place to attack, given its 15 electoral votes. But it would be a big ask for Obama to win North Carolina.

Instead, it would be far more useful to simply concentrate on Michigan, Indiana, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio. (I discount Florida, as the polls are going back to McCain there – I even tend to discount Indiana, but given that the polls tell us that it is close, and I go by the polls).  It is in those states that this election will be won or lost. The others are effectively irrelevant.

As such, I think that Obama is wasting time and money in those states. There are 90 days to go in this election campaign and at this point in time the momentum – according to the polls – is with McCain. Time to get back to political reality. A fifty-state strategy might be a nice little dream, but that is all it ever was. A five-state strategy is what is needed to win this thing.

651 replies on “Is Obama wasting time and money?”

Sure, Obi’s vactioning in Hawaii with his family, but what we have here is a bunch of political Money Shots. Especially the last one.
Johnny Bomb-Bomb can get as antsy as he likes with the Russkies, but as far as powerful imagery goes, the old warmonger can’t compete with The Kid on this level.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/14/obama-bodysurfs-in-hawaii_n_119070.html

N.B. The Kid doesn’t go goofin’-off lookin’ for no winsurfer action:)

Somewhat more broadly appealing image that “Dipstick” Dukakis and the tank turret, imHo.

http://southdakotapolitics.blogs.com/south_dakota_politics/images/2008/03/28/dukakis_tank.jpg

http://lh3.ggpht.com/_CSUPQ7EpU_4/R7VRGk6H9yI/AAAAAAAAELg/SRp6E1aoGb8/DukakisTank.jpg

Maybe Mcains trying to destroy his own party, so it can be rebuilt again from the ground up.

McCain alarms base with abortion comment.

Top social conservative leaders in key battleground states are urging John McCain not to pick a running mate who supports abortion rights, warning of dire consequences from a Republican base already unenthused about their nominee.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12542.html

509 Enemy Combatant

Take a walk on the wild side, Ecky! Try these:

Fornicating Tours: You get to see the Sin!

(Free Rosary Beads with every Jumbo Tour booked)

Or go the whole hog (so to speak) with with:

Fornicating Tours: You get to see the Sin!

Ecky@518,

The ‘swift-u-boat’, a touch too close for comfort!!

What is it they say about a woman scorned and the enemy

from within?

Yes, Megan, Brutusina is a difficult and delicate balancing act. Brush her at the Convention and she’ll white-ant him for the rest of the campaign. Very damaging if the race tightens. Give her too much space and she’ll convert it into a launching pad for 2012.

Senator Clinton is to be presented as some sort of consolation-prize nominee in Denver and is “on the ballot” or something. This will pacify many of her diehards, but Axelrod and Co. will need to prepare for the odd stunt or two from her most besotten fanatics.
————–
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57617

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AE847UXu3Q

Fri Aug 15:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/doonesbury;_ylt=Aiw78Zt8kxoyS_DdNg1yTVLX.sgF

Ecky@523,

Brilliant!!

Her eyes, body language next to Bill’s.

And as for Edwards …. 😆

One for the archives!!

520 megan

Are you picking faults with my literary irony????? LOL

Wanna nuther one?

(Pssst, only odd atomic numbers are radioactive isotpoes)

Yes,please…enjoying the morphy ‘literirony’ 🙂

Have to make the most of it while we can!!

Kirri,
I have been following your progress – pleased all is going to plan. Don’t be surprised if it takes a while to get back to your usual state – that is quite normal!
Take care and blessings from all available gods!

Kirri, here I was all these years thinking like a galactic hitch-hiker, that the secret to the universe was 42. The document to which you link reckons it’s 19. Tell ya what I’ll do. Let’s split the diff and call it 23 or more precisely 30.5 pending university controlled tests.
Ya gotta love 30.5, it’s a number with a lot of potential.
Maybe tomorrow we could take a look at String Theory.
————————–

The Fix Is In:

http://www.crisispapers.org/essays8p/fix.htm

—————-
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57618

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57635

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57648

531 kerneels

cheers, kerneels, I can feel your blessings whizzing over the intertubes as I type! (‘Speaking’ being ‘off the menu’ for a while lately)

Kirri,
I had a friend who could not speak for a while for similar reasons- he is back to full argumentative mode and very vocal now, a bit hoarse and whispery but that does not stop him communicating!

Look here Kiri, we are all a bit scared of Catrina, she knows what she is doing and we had better listen to her, so there!

537 Catrina

Rather than incur your annoyance Catrina, I promise to recover fully.

OK? Got that?

NYTimes:

Ms. Rice, who was in Tbilisi to show support for President Mikheil Saakashvili, said that “with this signature” there had to be “the immediate and orderly withdrawal of Russian armed forces and the return of those forces to Russia.”

At the same time, a column of at least a dozen armored vehicles moved south from Gori, the central Georgian city, to the village of Igoeti, and took up a position there, about 15 miles from Tbilisi, the Georgian capital. This company-sized unit of armored personnel carriers, commanded by a Russian captain, has come closer to the capital than any other so far.

Russia put its signature to the accord earlier this week, but the agreement included a point that allowed Russian troops to act in what was termed a peacekeeping role, even outside the boundaries of the separatist enclaves where the war began.

It soon became clear that Russian forces had turned this provision to their advantage as Russian troops, pushed further into Georgia and seized full control of the central city of Gori in recent days.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/16/world/europe/16prexy.html?hp

…the picture of Condi Rice and Saakashvili is remarkably versatile: either that lurid red tie is the frog’s tongue, ready to extend and devour Ms Rice at shutter speed, or Ms Rice has taken the role of ‘older woman’ to Mikheil’s stag night.

Take ya pick.

Morning Kirri,

Another early morning ‘brekkie’ I see! 🙂

No doubt an irresistable mouthwatering smorgasbord of

poached isotpoes, scrambled itosopes and isotopes

benedict for your delectation this morning?

That photo of Condi is perfect for one of those caption

competitions!!

Must fly – hope your friend Morphy keeps you comfortable

today.

Hello friends-
Kirri- sounds like the end of the horrible treatments will be a major cause for celebration –
can you tip champers down the tube?
If not, i’ll have one for you.

You”ve shown incredible resilience. Inspirational stuff.

548 jen

I do recall asking the quack if rhyming was adequate justification. As in:

‘Keg’ rhymes with ‘PEG’.

He obligingly said that that probably just made it!

But a good champers would be utterly wasted on me for some time yet I’m afraid.

547 megan

“… irresistable mouthwatering smorgasbord of

poached isotpoes,”

…of course you meant “isotopes” didn’t you? LOL

And you need to be critised for putting ‘mouth’ and ‘smorgasbord’ together in the same sentence (or even on the same page as far as I’m concerned!)

At this stage, I’ve had the inside of my mouth irradiated to the limit and it produces copious (as in unimaginable!) amounts of viscous mucus which I’m dishcarging at a frightening rate! LOL

So, can you kill this ‘smorgasboard’ stuff for a while, huh?

A very interesting article on what effect the voter registration will have on the election.

The electorate is older, whiter and richer than the nation as a whole. As of 2004, there were 55 million unregistered eligible voters, among whom traditional Democratic constituencies are overrepresented. Eighty-two percent of those with bachelor’s degrees are registered, while only 53 percent of those without a high school diploma are. Blacks trail whites by about ten percentage points in registration, and Latinos trail whites by almost 20 percent. Single women, who are reliably progressive, lag behind married women by thirteen points. A full eight out of ten voters over 55 are registered, but among 18- to 24-year-olds, the only age demographic Kerry won in 2004, that number is only six in ten.

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080901/hayes

Kirri,

I DO have the biggest feet that inadvertently spend too much time in my “m…..h” ……argggghhhhh!!
So sorry- sussed the treatment just not the location.
Hell on earth,eh?
My playful take on your dyslexia comment yesterday mushroomed into that overblown gastronomic flourish this morning …:oops:
Promise to write 100 times, “I must not…..”

Just wish you the very,very best 🙂

Afternoon, Gang.

Kirri, by the time time you get through the worst of it, you’ll be able to send the nippers on a Grande Tour or two and buy Greg Norman’s “yacht”, (you know, the sucker Sharkie can’t fire up on a cold morning without the choke) on the proceeds of your mastery of a “New Genre” in expectorant art, namely Muco-Polysaccharidal Hoik-ku.

From the caves of Altamira to the cove of Circular Quay.

Goes like this; first you recite some poetry, then a short sharp burst of Tuvan throat singing. Next you “approach” your blank canvas having masticated a mess of beetle nut. A well-heeled throng gather expectanly, lured by the “exotic music” and incense. Your schtick consists of spritzing your spits to canvas with creative choreography; lots of John Belushi “Sat. Nite Live” squeals and purrs and staccato grunts.

Can see you down at the Quay muscling out your Street Performers patch, systematically relieving cashed-up tourists of vast wads of their holiday fat. A couple of laminated A4 home-office generated signs flutter inoffensively in the background:

“Trade Enquiries Welcome”

“No Card Facility Available. ATM opposite”
—————————–
Chris B at 551, great piece from The Nation. Here’s a couple more paras that indicate why a “50 state strategy” is hitting pay dirt.

“The way to change the political process,” he said, “is to change the face of the electorate. Because it’s not about getting Barack Obama elected, it’s about whether we’re gonna have a progressive majority.”

After the Democratic primary in South Carolina, one of the most active Obama volunteers in the city of Florence, a 37-year-old attorney named Steve Wukela, decided to run for mayor against a thirteen-year incumbent named Frank Willis. Wukela ran at Willis from his left. With a motto of “Real Democrat for Real Change,” he castigated Willis for having donated to George W. Bush and for standing by “while sales taxes were increased on the poorest among us, shifting the burden to those least able to afford it.” Wukela activated the volunteers he’d met going door-to-door for Obama, implementing a voter-contact model he’d been trained in by the campaign and reaching out to new voters. “Everyone said, Steve, that’s nice, the Obama campaign was nice, but you probably shouldn’t try to unseat a thirteen-year incumbent,” explained Bird. “You’re getting a little ahead of yourself.”

But there was a constituency for change, thanks in part to the voter-registration activities of the Obama campaign, which had registered 8,000 new voters in Florence during the primary. And when votes in the mayoral election were tallied, Wukela had eked out an upset. By one vote.

“Muco-Polysaccharidal Hoik-ku”

Mate, this stuff can walk…

…up walls!

Gallup Daily Tracking: Obama 44%, McCain 44%

The Aug. 12-14 polling shows a slight dip in Obama’s support, which had ranged between 46% and 48% (averaging 47%) in August. McCain has averaged 43% support among registered voters so far in August. Thus, the closer margin seen in today’s results is due more to movement away from Obama than toward McCain. Twelve percent of registered voters now say they are undecided or supporting another candidate, which is on the high end of what Gallup has measured this year.

Gallup puts the drop down to Obama’s absence from the stage during his vocation in Hawaii.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109564/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Obama-Tied-44.aspx

Cat at 559: “Gallup puts the drop down to Obama’s absence from the stage during his vocation in Hawaii.”

Cat, others might consider it a pre-convention, Beijing-distracted pseudo-narrowing.
Besides, what red-blooded Patriot can be bothered being fully attentive to a pesky phone poller while America’s Best are mining Cathay gold and Mickey Phelps is reinterpreting water cubism?

You people have no idea how the general american public thinks. If there is a sniff of a war they will vote for M’cain in a second.
Stay here and hero worship Obamba but get over you r Pc correct ideology the usa will not vote for a black president ,this year no way no how.
I am not being racist but stating facts that the usa is a racist country the same as aus. is still a racist country .So you all enjoy grouphugging eachother and get ready to cry come election day.

A rather good read:
Six days that broke one country – and reshaped the world order

or the past few evenings in the foothills of the Southern Caucasus on the outskirts of Joseph Stalin’s hometown of Gori, reconnaissance units of Russia’s 58th army have been raking through the spoils of war at what was the Georgian army’s pride and joy, a shiny new military base inaugurated only last January for the first infantry, the army engineers, and an artillery brigade.

A couple of hours to the west, in the town of Senaki, it’s the same picture. A flagship military base, home to the second infantry brigade, is in Russian hands. And down on the Black Sea coast, the radars and installations for Georgia’s sole naval base at Poti have been scrupulously pinpointed by the Russians and destroyed.

Gori and Senaki are not ramshackle relics of the old Red Army of the type that litter the landscape of eastern Europe. “These bases have only recently been upgraded to Nato standard,” said Matthew Clements, Eurasia analyst at Jane’s Information Group. “They have been operationally targeted to seriously degrade the Georgian military.”

“There is a presence of our armed forces near Gori and Senaki. We make no secret of it,” said the general staff in Moscow. “They are there to defuse an enormous arsenal of weapons and military hardware which have been discovered in the vicinity of Gori and Senaki without any guard whatsoever.”

The “enormous arsenals” are American-made or American-supplied. American money, know-how, planning, and equipment built these bases as part of Washington’s drive to bring Nato membership to a small country that is Russia’s underbelly.

But even more interesting is the politics behind the scenes.

558 Enemy Combatant

You’ve nailed it Ecky! (And believe me, you could! LOL)

Although the colour is more caramel.

thats right attack someone with a diffrent view.
Obamba will not win win because the Usa is a racist country and obamba is black. Also as i stated any hint of a war and Mcain will win. Belive all you want and talk him up but be prepared to lose come nov.

BTW> my wife comes from a little town in ohio and she just loves reading all your expert posts from people who have no idea at all but just rely on , who is your political guru?
JOHN STEWART a left wing commentater who admits he votes for the reb. and is a actor formost.

Sat Aug 16:
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/nonsequitur;_ylt=AkTQQw9n_UoEXu6g0pS9_6LmcLQF

Cortoonologists and students of lingual extension are uncertain about how the evolutionary jump from “THWAP” to “ZOT” actually occurred. Under an Obama Presidency, revenues raised from tightening corporate tax loop-holes will be showered upon those keen to pursue phenomena of similar cultural significance.
No matter how many working families in Ohio have to stand in the breadline to fund it. :mrgreen:

http://www.talkingproud.us/ImagesMilitary/BlindbatLGB/HartZot.jpg

lilprawn@570,

My understanding is that Nazis are right wing….don’t think you could ever accuse Catrina of that 🙂

megan, PNAC pointman, William “The Bloody” Kristol recently said Powell would speak at the Dem Convention endorsing The Kid.

Powell said it was bullshit.
————–
The Ides of August:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=Al5TjuJWUi6WY8fGdlC5sRNR_b4F

Essential questions to consider regarding the Georgian pipeline.
Who owns the oil going in?
Who got the oil coming out(until recently)?
Who controls it now?
Will Oil & Gas Corps go to war to protect “their assets”?
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/57671

Fri Aug 15:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/bensargent;_ylt=AosmxEz42ONWxLMIDwB_2nlN_b4F

“The fighting between Russia and the former Soviet republic of Georgia is an unnerving reminder of that, and of how quickly the balance of global power can be tilted from unexpected directions with barely a warning. ”

An interesting perspective from a Retired Army colonel,West Point graduate, Andrew Bacevich.

America and the World

Catrina is right wing. She wants this whole site to agree with her views and she can not stand it if some one disagrees.
I will say again Obama will lose because the USA is not ready to elect a black president.
Like it or lump it is a fact and do not cty when reality takes over.

The nazis started out restricting free speech.
What is what catrina doing any different?

The meeting between John McCain and Barack Obama today at Saddleback Church in Orange County will be brief — a handshake and perhaps an exchange of pleasantries in between back-to-back interviews with the church’s pastor, Rick Warren.

But for the 3,000 people in the audience and viewers watching live on cable television, this first onstage matchup will offer a preview of the three critically important presidential debates, the first next month at the University of Mississippi.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-forum16-2008aug16,0,6960752.story

The John McCain campaign Friday reported its best fundraising month since the Arizona senator became the GOP’s presumptive presidential nominee.

McCain raised $27 million last month, the fifth consecutive month in which contributions have increased, campaign manager Rick Davis said in a morning conference call. The Republican National Committee reported it had raised an additional $25.8 million, giving it a total of $71.5 million.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-campaign16-2008aug16,0,4771633.story

584 lilprawn Might be handy if you learn your left wing from your right wing as you obviously have no idea.

Targeting Colorado’s U.S. Senate race as a top political priority, energy companies and environmental activists are pumping money into Bob Schaffer’s and Mark Udall’s campaign coffers.

Environmental groups from 2007 through June gave more money to Democrat Udall than any other Senate candidate or incumbent nationwide, according to data compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics.

Udall’s campaign took in $116,324 from the Sierra Club, League of Conservation Voters and other green groups through their political action committees. Udall’s total is nearly double that of the next closest Senate recipient.

Oil and gas interests are backing Republican Schaffer. Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil and others through their PACs funneled $104,900 into his campaign. Schaffer’s contributions from oil and gas groups rank ninth for all Senate races.

Oil and gas companies gave Udall $15,500.

http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_10208365

Arkansas has a Democratic governor, an overwhelmingly Democratic legislature, two Democratic United States senators and three Democratic Congressional representatives out of four.

The Democratic presidential primary here drew 80,000 more voters than the Republican one. And though the state voted for President Bush in 2000 and 2004, the two previous elections went handily to its native son, Bill Clinton.

registration needed for NY Times.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/16/us/politics/16arkansas.html

Tarred by Scandal, Republicans May Be Losing Alaska.

On the summer morning he would deliver himself to federal marshals to begin a 3 1/2 -year sentence for accepting an oil company’s bribes, former state lawmaker Vic Kohring (R) parked along the side of Alaska’s busiest highway. While his mother waited in the car, Kohring posted a hand-lettered sign reading “Thanks, Alaska” and spent three hours waving and smiling at drivers heading to work.

The unlikely display of gratitude came after the FBI captured the portly Republican on surveillance video gushing, “That’s very kind of you, I appreciate that,” as an oil executive handed over hundred-dollar bills. And he may not be the last Alaska Republican making a less than graceful exit from the stage this year.

Registration required for Washington Post.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/15/AR2008081503441.html?hpid=topnews

John McCain’s Divorce Led to a Lawsuit.

t will be interesting to learn whether the subject of adultery comes up at John McCain’s appearance at Rick Warren’s Saddlebrook megachurch today. However, his divorce from his first wife is in the news for other reasons. It now seems that McCain’s mother sued her former daughter-in-law to recover property that McCain’s first wife refused to return. McCain says the divorce was amicable, but as a rule, in amicable divorces, the families don’t sue each other. McCain says he doesn’t remember the suit, but court records have surfaced detailing it. In this case, with his age a major issue, saying he doesn’t remember his mother suing his ex-wife may do more damage than simply saying “divorces are no fun and my ex refused to return my mother’s property.” Democratic 527 groups could say: “Nobody forgets your mother suing your ex–unless your mind is going.” This could be yet another example of the coverup being worse than the event being covered up.

http://www.electoral-vote.com

Government Documents Reveal More Evidence in Case Against Stevens.

New allegations have surfaced against Sen. Ted Stevens , R-Alaska, due to stand trial in September on charges of hiding expensive gifts.

In a court filing, prosecutors say they plan to introduce evidence that Stevens received a $31,000 interest-free loan to help finance a Florida real estate transaction, but he failed to report it on his 2001 Senate financial disclosure forms. Prosecutors allege that Stevens eventually made more than $100,000 on the deal.

The government also plans to introduce evidence that Stevens asked Bill Allen, the former head of VECO Corp., an Alaska oil and gas company, to purchase a backup generator for his Girdwood, Alaska, home in 1999 and that Allen — with Stevens’ help — provided gifts to Stevens’ children and grandchildren.

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docid=news-000002938429

When House Speaker Nancy Pelosi set out to promote her new motivational book this month, she simultaneously touched off her national why-haven’t-you-impeached-the-president tour.

As she made the coast-to-coast rounds of lectures, television interviews and radio chats the past two weeks, Ms. Pelosi found herself under siege by people unhappy that she has not been motivated to try to throw President Bush out of office – even if only a few months remain before he leaves voluntarily.

You need to be registered for the NY Times.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/15/us/politics/15web-hulse.html

Top CEOs give 10 times more to McCain than to Obama.

The top executives of America’s biggest companies are more willing to open their wallets for John McCain than his Democratic rival, donating 10 times as much to the Arizona senator’s campaign as to Barack Obama’s.

Obama’s campaign seized on the findings of The Hill’s review of campaign finance records to suggest that the gap was due to “special favors” McCain has given corporations.

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/top-ceos-give-10-times-more-to-mccain-than-to-obama-2008-08-15.html

Nah, it’s one with fish heads! Purleeeeeeeeese David, no more fish heads! OK, LOL?

Morning to all who can’t avert their eyes from the fear and loathing that is an American presidential campaign.

Coming soon to a pipeline near you…….

Transfusion Nation: “we will not rest until your country is free……..free to have its peoples’ blood exchanged for oil.”

WASHINGTON (AP) – President Bush on Friday accused Russia of “bullying and intimidation” in its harsh military treatment of Georgia, saying the people in the former Soviet republic have chosen freedom and “we will not cast them aside.”

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/feedarticle/7728735

Surely America’s MSM won’t let Dubya get away with such outrageous inconsistentcy. They have far too much integrity to let that one thru to the catcher. They’ll smack it clean outta the park like a 240 yard line-driven homer and skewer The President with his own words…….. any day now…..just you wait and see!!

“I’m in show business, why come to me?”
“War is show business, that’s why we’re here.”
– “Wag the Dog” (1997 film)

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article20530.htm

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