Frank Rich (New York Times the Op-Ed Columnist) gets into the subject of polling numbers and questions of popularity and in the process provides some salient historical facts.
No presidential candidate was breaking the 50 percent mark in mid-August polls in 2004 or 2000. Obama’s average lead of three to four points is marginally larger than both John Kerry’s and Al Gore’s leads then (each was winning by one point in Gallup surveys). Obama is also ahead of Ronald Reagan in mid-August 1980 (40 percent to Jimmy Carter’s 46). At Pollster.com, which aggregates polls and gauges the electoral count, Obama as of Friday stood at 284 electoral votes, McCain at 169. That means McCain could win all 85 electoral votes in current toss-up states and still lose the election.
Source: NYT: The Candidate We Still Don’t Know
With the Democratic Party Convention between the 25th. to the 28th. August, the Republican Party Convention between the 1st. to 4th. September, only then will the stage be set with just two months between the end of the Republican convention the 4th November (a.k.a. election day).
447 replies on “Polls don't matter (at least not yet)”
Obama by 2 points in Virginia
Nevada: McCain 46%, Obama 39%
New Mexico: McCain 45%, Obama 41%
Arizona: McCain 47%, Obama 41%
Colorado: Obama 46%, McCain 43%
Wyoming: McCain 62%, Obama 25%
Utah: McCain 62%, Obama 23%
Those Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado polls are a little worrying. But we need to see more polling from there to be sure, and the conventions will stuff up that polling in any case.
Oh, and in case anyone was wondering, I am disappointed but not surprised that Obama did not pick Hillary. I think that it was a mistake to skip her. This election is going to be decided by working class, predominantly white, women in Virginia, Ohio and Michigan. Clinton was the perfect person to get these voters in.
It is my feeling that Obama is behaving a little bit like a president and not enough like a presidential candidate. Obama will still win this thing, but it is going to be very close. While some of his close advisers are talking about 350 EVs, my pick has narrowed to around 290.
This is an article that discusses Obama’s strategy targetting red states and looks at the potential risks. An exuberant campaign is one thing; but the presidency is the prize here.
David liberated at 408
David – it’s a good article and nicely presents both sides of the sword. However, I think the comparison between Obama’s offensive the Bush 2000 California amble are a little off the mark. The California gamble was all about securing a large number of electoral votes in one state whereas Obama’s is much more low risk in that the opportunities being targeted are spread across multiple states and even partial success opens up more routes to victory.
A slew of articles up on the NYT dealing with Obama, Byden and the convention.
Networks Hope to Find Unique TV Moment at Democratic Convention
Lots of details of the logistics in play for the next four days.
Tasks for Biden This Fall: Travel and Attack McCain
A.K.A. Fight Club II
Delegates for Clinton Back Obama, but Show Concerns
Numbers from the Times/CBS Newspoll (taken before the VP pick) concerning delegate feelings.
Anxious Party Hopes to Show Strong Obama
In a similar theme to the above, this article is digging into some in the Democratic Party who are worried as the pressure builds.
Excellent news on Biden being used in Ohio, Penn, Florida and Michigan. Add Virginia to that list, and I will be very happy indeed.
Fox News feeling the love in Denver
David, what sort of odds would you give me, for the Democrats winning more than 400 and beating the 60 seats in the senate?
Is there anyone else that will give me any odds?
I spite of them not using Hillary.
200 to 1.
And I would like to see the states that Obama wins that gives him 400. I can see him possibly reaching 384 if absolutely everything went picture perfect – he wins Ohio, Florida and Missouri, plus Colorado, Nevada, Montana and the Dakotas. To get to 400, he would need to win two out of Georgia, Indiana and West Virginia.
So: 400 is out of reach. 60 senate seats is a slightly more likely outcome, but not by much. They need to win 9 out of 10 winnable races, which is still tough.
By the way: I would not accept more than a five dollar bet. Even on long odds, I cannot afford to lose.
Don’t do it David. Risky!
I think the polls are lying to us. Obama’s real strength is in his ability to mobilise the youth vote and the youth vote is notoriously hard to poll accurately.
These are people who don’t even have a land line to call them on. They communicate by e-mail and mobile. They’re not home at the times most polling is done. To your average pollster they’re invisible and they’ll remain that way right up until Nov 4th when they’ll come out and cost you that grand.
I’ll offer 50 to 1 on the 400+ EVs for Obama and 60 in the Senate.
The easiest way for Obama to get to 400 EVs is the following:
CA OR WA AK MT ND SD NM CO MN IA MO WI IL MI OH IN PA NY NJ MA RI CT ME NH MD VT DC VA NC GA FL
which leads to 402 EVs. If he picks them these, I’ll be amazed.
For 60 Senate seats, the Dems need to pick up:
VA CO NH NM AK NC MN OR + two of ME, GA, MS or KY.
It’s more likely than Obama getting more than 400, but everything would have to be going right for the Dems to get it. At this stage, both are extremely unlikely…
P.S. I am also going with DG’s $5 limit (I’m just more miserly than him on this…)
any of you shysters care to offer me your board odds on President Obama gaining >340 ECVs straight up, bearing in mind that in the spirit of camaraderie and bonhomie my investment would be limited to $5?:)
Mon Aug 25:
Sun Aug 24:
Mon Aug 25:
Sun Aug 24:
I’ll take $5 on both of you. But I must get 400 in the house and 60 in the senate.
Does that mean the max I can place is $5 or the max you will pay out?
Chris at 425
Just to confirm ..
You are offering $5 to Swing Lowe at 50:1 and $5 to David Gould at 200:1 for a result of 400 or more EVs and 60 or more Democrats in the senate.
Madonna Gets Political
Catrina at 427 correct.
So thats $250 from SL and $1000 from David.
I must get both not one or the other.
428 Catrina Can’t wait to see it on You Tube.
The Madonna concert is about to be on 9 News, after the ad break.
The McCain campaign is outraged by being compared to Hitler and Mugabe. 😆 But Obama has to win over Hillary supporters.
Sure, I’d vote for McCain over Obama over Hillary. Pigs *ss.
Georgian President Vows to Rebuild Army
More coverage on ABC 1 News, (still getting used to that). Although it will be ABC 1, 2, 3 and 4 next year.
They covered the convention center.
Some interesting media trivia – about 26 percent of US news coverage was devoted to the Russia-Georgia conflict during the week of Aug. 11 to 17. That’s more coverage than the 2008 campaign, the Olympics and John Edwards’s affair. But the really sad thing is the following quote:
Chris B at 438
Taking into account that it is 03:26 in Denver, gee, must be really compelling coverage!
“It was framed largely as a good vs. bad kind of a story,” he said. “There’s an immediate frame of reference for most Americans.”
Yeah, Cat at 439, when rubes are programmed as Manichaeans from their tender, early years at dogma imprintation centres, manipulative authorities can 3-card Monte them every time with 30 second versions of the 2 Minute Hate. As seen on TV.
Rush Limbaugh and BillO will actually brachiate-to-camera for added emphasis when circumstances warrant.
Losing your “house effect”.
“How Pollsters affect Poll Results”
(cross-pasted chez Poss.)
“The Russian Federation was founded following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, ……” (wiki)
Lateline 10:30 on Obama. Monday
Foreign Correspondent 9:30 Tuesday Obama
Lifestyles of the rich and out of touch.
John and Cindy McCain Have 10 Houses
With John McCain’s houses a major news item now, it was inevitable that someone would make a Google map showing them all. Here is a list of the properties.
Here on Votemaster
chris B, I thought they had 7 houses. How truly astonishing that the man has so many houses, he lost count. He couldnt even mention a figure when asked…
I must admit though, the closeness of the polls have me worried. Correct me if Im wrong, but didnt Reagan, GWB against Gore then Kerry, all come from behind to win? Bearing in mind GWB and the repugs are more on the nose than usual, why are the repugs better at late campaigning, and can Obama change that??
Andrew at 445:
“I must admit though, the closeness of the polls have me worried.”
Andrew, worry no more. Read the quote below and then the link and all will be revealed. Obi has a winning GOTV strategy, he’s got Team Bomb-Bomb shot to bits in the net/grassroots theatres of campaign warfare.
New thread up …
Last call for Princess Hillary
This post inspired by Kirribilli Removals and editorial contributions from the same.