We are about to witness the biggest landslide in US political history. Everything is against the Republicans. History tells us that no incumbent party overlooking such an economic disaster, survives. Everything is pointing to wipeout. Never mind the fact that the Democrats have 8 out of the top 10 major issues going for them. None of that counts when it comes to the economy. Bill Clinton won well when the economy was on the down turn. This is different, the economy is an unmitigated disaster, who are they going to blame?
It doesn’t matter that they have the most corrupt US government ever, the war in Iraq doesn’t matter. The “200 year old man” running for president doesn’t matter. Neither does the hillbilly running for VP. Forget about Hurricane Katrina, the health care in a mess, returned soldiers being in squalid conditions in hospitals. None of that matters. It’s the economy stupid! If you didn’t hear that, it’s THE ECONOMY STUPID!
To sum it all up, I give you Obama’s latest ad, which I couldn’t have said better.
1,290 replies on “It's the economy stupid!”
New poll from the LA Times
Obama has improved by one and McCain has fallen back by one, giving Obama a five-point lead.
EC at 1118,
I am not arguing that according to fivethirtyeight she is the best pollster. However, she is of no help in working out how things are going nationally or in Colorado or Flordia or Virginia or Nevada or Pennsylvania and so on and so on …
Iowa and Michigan are the two states that I have seen Selzer polling on – all at fivethirtyeight. There may be others, so if you can point me to them, that would be excellent.
Good article on the Republican strategy going forward.
Both of these issues were losers for McCain in the debate. It may just be too late.
I think it is too late now. The crash came at the perfect time for Obama. Five weeks is not enough time for anything useful to happen for McCain. Although I wonder if the Republicans could hold another convention? 😉
Link to SNL sketch on the debate via Huffington Post. Hilarious.
According to Electoral-vote.com, Ann Selzer polled Indiana on September 14-16. The result was 47% to 44% Obama.
Electoral-vote.com: September 18
Thanks, GhostWhoVotes. There might be more that I have missed. With a bounce for Obama since that time, it could be that Indiana is indeed looking good for him.
DG, I read your initial thoughts on the debate and they were pretty much the same as mine. Luckily, we were wrong. 🙂
Obama is building some momentum and the McCain campaign is being asked the same questions that the Obama campaign was being asked the last couple of weeks. Steve Schmidt was interviewed in the Washington Post and he sounded a lot less convincing than Plouffe did, in response to a dip in the polls. The McCain campaign is just waiting and hoping for the bailout to pass and for people to return their focus to McCain’s strengths, like foreign policy. I don’t think that will happen in the next 5 weeks. It is Obama’s job to not let it happen.
According to Electoral-vote.com, only 5 Presidential polls by Selzer have been released. There are 2 in Indiana, 1 in Iowa and 2 in Michigan.
Electoral-vote.com’s Presidential Polls CSV File
Open the file in a spreadsheet program (e.g. Excel) and search for ‘Selzer’.
1200 David Gould Even a neutral vote was a win for Obama. It was his worst area.
1201 David Gould She certainly is. Take her polling and apply it roughly in other states gives you a VERY GOOD idea. Slaughter!
Couple of short videos here.
Bill Clinton throws his weight behind The Kid.
Smhuckens and Axel go head to head:
Biden should use his debate to attack the executives of the companies, point out that the Repugs are tied up with them, and remind people it was the Repugs that caused all this. Be calm and patient. Leave Palin alone.
Even be NICE (not smarmy) to Palin.
Obama Keeps Advantage Over McCain in Post-Debate Poll.
This bit I really like.
Worth more of a read…
Those six extra senate seats I have named, will gradually move closer.
Democrats claim credit, stress bipartisanship.
The Democrats come out of this smelling of roses.
Bush didn’t have room to move. If he didn’t want to go down in history worse than he is. He had to let the Democrats save him. They look like the hero’s in all this.
Massive turn out in Democrat vote.
Big drop in Republican turn out.
They really are trying to cacoon the UPOS.
Generally though once it is launched in to Cyberspace that is where it stays thanks to diligent guberintertubers!
AP Article Detailing a Number of Criticisms of the Republican Veep Nominee Was ‘Top Story’ at FNC Website, Only to be Suddenly Disappeared:
1208 GhostWhoVotes Makes interesting reading.
I have been having another look at the tracking polls. It appears that Obama’s best day in Rasmussen was the polling taken Friday, while in Gallup hias best day was on Thursday. From my reading of it, Gallup should show a slight drop for Obama in tomorrow’s tracking poll (assuming that Obama gess similar numbers today as yesterday) and Rasmussen should stay put or even slightly increase for Obama.
It makes me wonder if we have yet seen the full debate reaction. Maybe it takes a little while to come through. DailyKos – which I do not trust, but which I will mention – seems to indicate that their polling yesterday post-debate showed a big surge in support for Obama.
In other news, Rasmussen have very slightly increased the Democratic lead over Republicans in party identification – a .1 per cent jump in the lead. I thought it would be more than that.
For comparison, Hotline – which I also do not like – seem to have Obama dropping in support in the tracker immediately after the debate.
Again, I personally would focus on Gallup and Rasmussen. But I included Htoline and DailyKos for those who like them. I will not bother wasting my time with Battle, however.
It’s only weekly adjustments. It’s on here.
I will also note that these are very rough breakouts of the tracking poll – there is significant margin of error in my analysis, as I have simply chosen an arbitrary baseline and worked from that. I have not bothered to look at fractions of points, which fivethirtyeight has done.
David, David, David. Gallop has far less less crediblity than Zogby according to Five Thirty Eight.
Except that Zogby does not do a tracking poll, so we cannot use them to measure anything here. In any case, Gallup showed a bounce for Obama in the data post-debate, so I am unclear what there is to worry about.
Further, Gallup has Obama further in front than any pollster at present. If they are more inaccurate than other pollsters, we must assume that Obama’s lead is not as large as it seems …
David, as a mathematician, what is the formula for working out the weighting of the percentage using 538’s correction?
Using Votemaster spreadsheets we can work it out more accurately.
I am unsure what you are asking. The weighting of which percentage?
Yes David Gould it appears that the Dems are mounting a big awarenes campaign about electronic voting.
Looks like the first of many videos out now:
The the polls according to votemaster. If we use the pollster error that 538 has provided and apply it to the polls provided by votermaster.
They multiply each poll margin by the weights, then divide by the total weights.
For example, if they had three polls with weights .9, +4 Obama, .7, +2 Obama and .4 +1 McCain, they would add 3.6 to 1.4 to -.4, giving 4.6. They would then add .9 + .7 + .4, giving 2. Dividing 4.6 by two gives us a margin of 2.3.
They then adjust the margin by the trend, but I am unsure of their precise formula for doing this.
So if I took a margin of 5% on a Mason Dixon poll how would I adjust for the +1.73 error.
It looks as though there are different state by state formulae for the trendline adjustments – Nate is using a model whereby changes in one state can influence changes in states with similar demographics, and this is probably one way that he is doing so.
I very much doubt that the Repugs would have sponsored this lady’s bail out plans.
There is a very good snippet at the end of the video where the imbecile says “just so long as i am the dictator”:
Do I just add +1.73 to the 5%?
Which error are you talking about – the margin of error on the poll?
I would ignore the margin of error. Simply use Nate’s weightings for each poll individually. Remember that he weights for nearness in time, too. Thus, a poll taken yesterday by a relatively bad polling firm will be worth more than a poll taken 10 days ago by a relatively good polling firm.
Nate’s weightings for each state poll can be found down the right-hand side of the main page, done state by state in alphabetical order.
Sorry I thought you were across all this stuff, it has been posted here enough.
Can you tell me what formula to use so I can work it out myself?
I know about the pollster ratings. However, those are not the same as the weights for any individual poll. They are used to determine the weights. However, Nate also uses the time of the poll.
Ignore those ratings. Look at the weightings down the right-hand side of the main page.
I told you the formula. For each poll, you multiply the poll weighting by the poll margin. Then you add these results up. Then you add up the poll weightings. Then you divide the total results by the total weightings. These will give you the non-trend adjusted margin.
For a very rough trend adjustment – note: very rough – you can simply add the fivethirtyeight trend, which at the moment is +4 for Obama.
Ah! I hadn’t spotted those further down. Many thanks.
It looks as though Nate use polls out to about 60 days old. I think the weighting is the pollster weighting times (60 – days old)/60. Note that this is a guess based on looking at, randomly, Nevada.
That will keep me out of mischief for a while.
G’day Gang. Grouse polls.
“so I am unclear what there is to worry about.”
Gouldie, I love it when you talk like that! You’re so goddamned cute when you come on with the “vulnerable” routine.
You have the gift, David.
A few casually tossed off phrases from you can, in a jiffy, melt the most cynical psephologist’s stone-cold heart.
Why let your talent go to waste? Maybe you could invest your anxieties in an emotionally intelligent bank that returns dividends based on intensity of interest:)
Sun Sept 28:
Sun Sept 28: Unearthing Sarah
(The below posted odds are fresher than Bubba BJ after viewing Californication; dug that SNL clip at 204 the most, Katielou)
OBAMA, Barack 1.40
MCCAIN, John 2.82
1244 David Gould My thought is that because everything is changing rapidly, those with a longer time are not showing the trends or changes quickly enough. But I suspect everything will settle now anyway.
I have not done regression yet – I will be doing the unit that covers that next year. As such, I have no insight to offer you on how Nate reaches his regressed margin. Neither do I know how Nate is getting his snapshot margin.
Or, indeed, his projection margin. I suspect that for the projection margin he has assumed some narrowing of the polls as the election nears. But I am not sure how he measures this across different states, as there seems to some increase in margin in some states.
What do you mean that I am cute when I talk like that?
I am cute all the time.
Gaffy released at 1236 and David somewhere too but not sure exactly where. Goofing-off is such a distraction when endeavouring to get a job done that’s worth doing well. Please forgive my “operator error”.
Mind you, DG, in the cut and thrust world of high-powered psephological analysis, free-spiritedness can be a richly rewarding experience for all concerned:)
It’s 1201 – a new LA Times poll, giving Obama a 5-point lead, up two from last time.
I’ve always maintained that arguments are lots of fun. 🙂
My rough working of the weightings for time are incorrect. I am unsure how Nate does this – he has some polls that are from four months ago still included (although at very low weight). I would simply go by his published weights and not worry about trying to work it out.
New question to find out whether the person you are polling is a racist. Who would you rather to live next door to.
The two banjo players from Deliverance.
The LA Time poll broken out by those who watched the debate. With only around a third of people watching the debate, the sample size for this part is unfortunately a tad small, with a 4 per cent margin of error. However, that error could well be in Obama’s favour.
Darn. I have been snaffled again. I was posting a link to the LA Times/Bloomberg poll, with a bit broken out by those who watched the debate. It shows Obama with a five-point lead. However, the margin of error is four.
David G and Chris B released from spam-limbo.
Could megan or EC give me a update on what is happening to the post I submitted 5 days ago?
Is that the one I vetoed?
Interesting article on the influence of values in this election.
All I know is that it is ‘Pending Review’.
I’m joking. I have no veto power – or any power, actually. 🙂
David the power to change opinions or not.
FiveThreeEight on why McCain is stuck with Palin (contrary to my earlier suggestion).
Well, I can alter people’s opinions so that they think that I am a closet Republican. Fear my power. Fear me.
Katielou at 1264,
While I never really thought that changing was an option, given that McCain is a risk taker and that he is behind it is still a possibility. I do not think that it would be a rationally taken decision, however – it would be an impulsive thing.
Well a new thread on teh banking crisis would be good. Am I the only one who is a little perturbed at the bad name that socialism is getting out of it? They call the bailout socialism but spending 700 billion of the people’s money to keep bankers afloat isn’t socialism. Socialism would be dissolving the banks, cancelling the debts and letting people keep their houses. Then you can spend 700 billion on a 5 year plan to modernise the energy sector. It is pure neo-con thinking to just assume it’s socialism because they’re handing out teh welfare.
Here’s a link to some photos of Obama backstage before the debate.
I’m a atheist, but as the blogger notes, the first photo is very touching. It’s easy to forget about Obama the man and the expectations placed on him.
I know I recommend a lot of articles here, but this really is a fantastic read. It’s about a Republican’s seeringly honest and intelligent evaluation of the debate.
Ta for the video.
I haven’t heard of Ms Kaptur before but that was a short sharp righthook to the “thieves”,as she eloquently put it, and their enablers and saviours.
I was impressed that she was intellectually honest enough to say that this mess spreads back 15 or so years to include her own Party.
The Bush/Clinton “dictatorship” is now thankfully over forever. That was the beauty of the Democratic Primary and the absolute beauty of the Obama/Dean/Axelrod/Plouffe campaign.
There is now a possibility, a possibility, of a re-alignment of this sick country.
Honesty and intelligence is what you would hope for in a President.
Bill Clinton: Honesty 1/10 Intelligence 8/10
George Bush: Honesty 0/10 Intelligence 0/10
Hillary Clinton: Honesty 2/10 Intelligence 6/10
John McCain: Honesty 4/10 Intelligence 5/10
Barack Obama: Honesty 5/10 Intelligence 8/10
Caribou Barbie: I’ll get back to you on that one!!!!!!
just had a peek and it’s in the works and ready to roll. Cat hasn’t been about for a bit. Travelling I guess. If Boss Blogstress hasn’t surfaced by tomorrow(will try emailing her as well) then Uncle Ecky will attempt to push the right buttons to publish your timely essay as a new thread.
Daily Kos has funded a couple of TV ads in support of Obama. Chris -thought you might be interested since you’ve written often about the support of 537s.
Dailykos is doing some great stuff. Their Orange to Blue campaign collects donations for individual Democratic candidates.
1264 Katielou 😈 He’s stuck with her. The people that will change votes are the independents. It’s all over bar the shouting. Palin cannot change between now and Friday morning our time. The fundies will think she makes sense. Duh!
It will be the first time most Americans will know they have got a fundie as a politician. It will SCARE the hell out of them.
In fact a lot of Australians will get a shock as well.
Jim Lehrer, Sarah tell us about the dinosaurs. 😈
Harry H@1271 and KatieLou @?(sorry…lost track) dragged from the jaws of the spamosaurus.
1273 Katielou Thanks KatieLou great ad. Just to remind everyone, get on to YouTube sign up and rate the video’s. You cannot donate, but rating and putting it in your favourites (leave it there till after the election). Would be far more cost effective way of helping Obama. This drives traffic to his ads.
1272 Enemy Combatant I think Cat has gone to Mexico. 😆
So they don’t have gado-friendly internet cafes in Mexico?
OK, kiddies, now it’s time to have some real fun
Does Catrina live some Sydney Bristowesque, double life? 😀
Fantastic competition EC!
I see Intrade has blown out again today:
Obama 58; McCain 40.2.
I think that’s the biggest margin I can recall.
Ferny, from my dodgy memory, I can recall Obi being out to high sixties on Intrade sometime earlier in the year.
Suppose you’ll be entering the Monthly comp then? Not much point in any of us bothering now really, with your streakiness:)
Already entered Ecky!
and re Intrade – I’d trust your memory over mine anyday.
Very kind of you, Ferny, but you dunno where it’s been.
Ghost, notice that you’re in the engine room doing a spot of editing on your piece. I have reservations about pushing the wrong buttons in an attempt to publish your piece and stuffing the site up.
Maybe you’re WordPress savvy. Are you prepared to have a go at self-publishing? It’s time for a new thread.
There are no words. SNL’s take on Katie Couric’s interview of Palin (via Daily Kos). And the second video is of CNN noting that the comedy skit used, in part, Palin’s actual responses to Couric. Holy shit.
New thread up folks.
From the GhostWhoVotes …
The Senate: Democrat By How Much?
Yabba Dubba Doooo!!