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Lipstick on a Pig

Ferny Grover at 491 said:

… you seem to have the impression that Americans are interested in real issues when they are showing every indication of being a nation in complete denial.

You’ve hit the nail on the head. I think most Americans have trouble facing reality. The worse things get, the more they want to escape.

The Republicans know this, so they gave the people Sarah Palin as the ultimate distraction. Now Americans don’t have to confront the hard stuff anymore in this election. They can talk about whether Palin was the right pick for VP. They can dream about the small-town hockey Mum suddenly making the big time. They can debate whether Bristol Palin should have kept her baby or not and what led her to a teen pregnancy. They can wonder whether Palin would be someone they could have a coffee or beer with.

Sure, there are plenty of people hurting in a declining economy, but for those who aren’t, they now have Palin to occupy them rather than having to be concerned for their fellow citizens or the overall decline in their country’s international standing.

This is a country that has lost its way under the Republican leadership as people were continually frightened into voting for the Republicans. Now that the Republicans have made the world seem so scary, they are exploiting American’s desires for escaping that world… no more big issues, no more things to worry about, just a fascination with Sarah Palin. The MSM have complied. The alternative media has complied. And now we are two weeks into this great scam and Americans are still chugging along besotted in some way with Palin, either loving or hating her.

The Republicans will be trying to make the most of this. She has now had one major interview. Expect them to hide her a way for a little, then bring her back out for another, anything to stretch it out until election day, drip feeding the country with bits and pieces of Sarah Palin.

The only way Obama can turn this around is to stir Americans in an emotional way, a DEEP emotional way. If he simply bangs on about the issues, people will keep resorting to the Palin distraction. He needs to reignite his message of hope and change so people can shift from escapism to a future dream. It is still about avoiding the here and now, which many Americans are inclined to do, but at least Obama can take them to a place that can inspire something better in them and in future generations rather than seeking solace in a temporary distraction.

1,030 replies on “Lipstick on a Pig”

From previous thread that wasn’t closed off.

You know David, if I didn’t know better I would think that you were overly concerned about what I think.

When all this blows over, and the focus comes down to the last two weeks. “It’s the stupid economy stupid.” The economy is a massive train wreck.

I am indeed concerned with what you think, Chris B. 🙂 I do not think that I am overly concerned, however.

There are two reasons that I am concerned. One is that I want more people to make informed decisions rather than act on emotion or out of ignorance. The second is that I think that your particular viewpoint is symptomatic of a problem that the left has in general: blaming the messenger for unwelcome news.

Now, I understand that this sounds condescending and paternalistic and pompous and all that. But my aim is simply to get you to examine the facts more closely. And when, for example, you pointedly ignore Rasmussen’s methodology of explicitly weighting for party ID, for example, it indicates to me that you are not doing so, which is why I challenge you on it.

And if this discussion encourages others to do so, all the better. 🙂

The closing of the polls also can be a good thing if it gets democratic voters out to vote.

Black nervousness could help Sen. Obama, the first African-American to head a major-party ticket, by boosting black turnout in November. One caller to Ms. Smith’s show Monday said she was so worried that she planned to go to her church to begin working on a voter-registration drive.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122107632937220473.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Noocat,

I certainly agree that Obama needs to reignite his message of hope and change. Apparantly, that is what they are planning to do: get busy attacking McCain on the change issue to turn it against the Republicans and own it once more.

[I certainly agree that Obama needs to reignite his message of hope and change. ]

I remember in the primaries earlier this year, Obama did best when he was doing his hope and change inspiration message. I remember reading an article about this actually – can’t remember where – but the author basically pointed out the positive correlation between voter support for Obama and the periods when he stuck to his core messages. When he spoke about the specifics of issues and policies, he lost traction and Hillary gained the upper hand.

It’s all about emotion. And that’s exactly what Palin’s emergence has done, provoked strong emotions, and that’s what keeps re-engaging people in their search for distractions or escape. Obama needs to do the same and luckily for the Dems, it’s his forte, he was born to inspire.

By Post Author

I’d like to read that article, if you can find it Noocat. I am skeptical of this notion that the same rhetoric which had the netroots fainting in the aisles, is going to shift the republicans. Like I said before, he barely won over half of the Democrats with that stuff.

Obama can still stick to the issues, what needs to change is his language. We have all seen that he is highly intelligent, eloquent and can produced brilliant speeches, superior to his opponents in every way. However, now is the time to also include messages condensed into hard edged phrases that is easy for people to understand and retain.

Palin’s Russian war gaffe surely must be fuel for a fire and reason to attack McCain and Republican leadership generally.

Pailin’s Russian war statement was no gaffe – it was a policy announcement. She’s still living the Cold War.

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/PollTracker/fullpage?id=5611512

This is an example of a poll where clearly party identification must favour Democrats.

If we assumed, for example, that Democrats, Independents and Republicans were even, then McCain would be ahead. If we assume that Democrats and Independents are even, then Republicans would make up only 27 per cent of the sample, with the Democrats having about a 10-point lead.

And yet, McCain is in front by one in the poll. (With of course a 3-point margin of error). But this shows that the random polling is indeed picking up a massive lead for Democrats in party identification.

With the war in Iraq and Afghanistan and the terrible cost of that people no doubt have the sense that Republicans are willing to go to war quite easily. People must totally sick of the whole thing. Any mention of a willingness to go to war with Russia, especially with the recent troubles, will seem all too real to Americans and not just a distant hypothetical.

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/091008poll1.pdf

Polling was conducted by telephone September 8-9, 2008, in the evenings. The total sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points. Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted.
LV = likely voters

Democrats n=370, ±5 percentage points; Republicans n=307, ±6 percentage points; independents n=188, ±7 percentage points

Obama supporters n=375, ±5 percentage points; McCain supporters n=402, ±5

Another recent poll capturing a large number of Democrats when compared to Republicans – an 7.5 per cent lead.

With sufficient numbers, random sampling works.

Of course there will be outliers – 1 in 20 polls will be outside the margin of error, and we are getting over 20 national polls per week here. But most of them will be within the error margin.

Got it right, Noocat. Emotion comes into it quite a bit. And in the US there is maybe a sense of impotence, thanks to the Bush train wreck. You can understand it in a way. The greatest power being unable to get much right.

We’ve seen it before. Back in 82, Thatcher was in big trouble until those dopey Argentinian generals (who were more used to dealing with unarmed civilians) believed they could make a play for the Falklands (Malvinos). Enter Thatcher with a Rule Britannia act as the Poms’ latest Bodicea, and pow – the generals are at last swept aside and Maggie’s an unbeatable hero at home.

It was humanitarian to get rid of that dictatorship but it lumbered us with Thatcher for a decade. I suppose you could also say that Reagan got there in 80 on the same basis. Jimmy Carter suffered a lot of reverses from the oil price hike to the Iran revolution and hostage crisis. And along comes Ronny spinning a few dreams about restoring greatness.

Palin has come along at just the right time for the Repugs, and neither the Dems nor MSM want to get too distracted. Obama needs to get back onto his vision and theme of change. He doesn’t even need to get down to too much detail. He can be sure that McCain and Palin won’t on their part.

I still remain an admirer of Big Bill Clinton despite all his flaws. It’s got to be good news that he’s campaigning, starting in Florida. A bit of his magic may help shore up votes in the industrialised states.

I caught the Sarah Palin comment regarding admitting Georgia into NATO so we could provoke a conflict with Russia.

Amazing.

There are some in our country who will see this as “tough” policy when it is the height of a childlike understanding of what the Georgian conflict was really all about.

And what was with those Americans among the Georgian dead anyway?

As to the poll that you just cited- consider the messenger (FOXnews). The truth is that the democrats are out-registering new voters by a substantial margin. And the whole Palin thing has redoubled our efforts. Look for an even bigger increase in Dem voter registration and probably the best fundraising month in history for Obama.

Christopher in Texas at 21

There is a lot of speculation here about Obama potential and we have some optimists and some pessimists – but me – I’m kind of in the middle. But seeing how you are from Texas an all – what’s your take on the chances of the state flipping over to the Democrats as far as the Electoral Vote is concerned?

Christopher in Texas,

There is no basis to question the accuracy of the FOXnews poll. It shows Democrats leading in registration by 7.5 per cent. If we look at Rasmussen’s examination of registered voters (based on a massive amount of polling, by the way)

“For September, the targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis). For the month of August, the targets were 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated. ”

Hmmm. A lead of 7.6 per cent for the Democrats.

It would seem that Rasmussen, ABC, Fox and CBS all show the Democrats ahead in registration by about the same amount … It’s a conspiracy, I tells ya! (My analysis of CBS is in the spam bin).

What I am trying to get across is that random sampling of a population, provided it is a sufficiently large sample, will reflect the make-up of that population. If the Democrats are indeed ahead in voter registration, random sampling will show that. And so it does.

Given that in general the polling appears to be accurate in that regard, there is no basis to question the accuracy of the polling on the core issue: that of the Obama/McCain contest.

And that polling shows that this contest is tight, and has been tight for a while.

If Democrats have more registrations than Republicans but are still trailing in the polls or breaking dead even, then it shows that large numbers of Independents are leaning towards the Republicans. That’s the group Obama needs to recapture.

By Post Author

Just for comparison, 11 million new voters added to the 121 million who voted last time gives us an increase to 132 million. Assuming equal party registration numbers last time, that gives the Democrats at 8 1/3 per cent edge – amazingly close to the figures broken out from those polls …

Well, only ‘amazingly’ if you do not believe that random sampling of a population will, in general, reflect the make-up* of that population.

*or is it lipstick?

Noocat at 26,

Yes, independents seem to be breaking for the Republicans. However, there is also a gap in that more Democrats are voting Republican than Republicans are breaking Democrat. Given that there are more Democrats in total, this is helping McCain disproportionately (in a sense, if you know what I mean …).

Catrina-

I doubt very seriously the dems will take Texas- even with a substantial Latino population. The Obama campaign here is asking us to take a trip to Colorado, Florida, or New Mexico to register new voters.

David-

One of the primary indicators of how people vote in the US is their economic background.

Do you know how the Independent voters break along economic lines?

Christopher in Texas at 30,

Impossible for me to say, unfortunately. They do not release enough data with the polls unless you pay for it, generally.

However, I think that either the ABC or CBS poll has some data on that. I will check.

ABC has some income data, but it is not broken down by independents.

Basically, Obama is winning hugely – 56 to 36 – among those earning less than 50,000. McCain wins by a similar margin those earning over 100,000. In between, McCain wins 52 to 43.

This poll gives Obama the overall edge by one.

David @ 25-

The thing to remember about the current polling is that the random sampling is from voters who voted in ’04.

Even the press here labels the new registrants as “wildcards”

Christopher in Texas at 34,

Um, no the polling is not of voters who voted in 04. For a start, if it were it would show party registration figures as being equal.

Secondly, while people are asked whether they voted in 2004, they are also asked to say how likely it is that they will vote this time. And this is the number that is used.

The polls are not undercounting young people, are not undercounting black people, are not undercounting Democrats, are not missing people without landlines and are not ignoring new voters. Professional polling organisations know their stuff.

Simply put: Democrats, please, please, please, please, please do not dismiss the polling data and assume that we are miles in front and about to see an Obama landslide.

David @ 36

Under no circumstance mistake ANYTHING I have posted as complacency.

McCain and Palin have the Dems scared out of their minds and mobilized to register and take trips and fund raise right up until the end.

I for one hope the polls stay close.

I am of the mind that the reason Kerry lost in ’04 is that many people who would have voted for him figured that he would win and stayed home.

Thanks for the correction BTW:)

Christopher in Texas,

Excellent. 🙂

Personally, as I tend to accept the polls as relatively accurate, I would love a 10-point lead for Obama next week … But I understand what you mean. With non-compulsory voting, getting people to turnout wins close elections, and a close race can get people to turn out.

I am a little worried after watching Gov. Palin’s interview with Charlie Gibson.

It was very embarrassing to watch her struggle with even the most basic foreign policy questions and she might have lost some support. She is the fulcrum of the Republican party right now and any diminishing of her star status is a mixed blessing for us.

No doubt many US viewers will find Palin’s terrible performance cute and endearing, and proof she really is different from the rest. I expect the repugs will continue to shield her and drip feed soft interviews. The thing that struck me most was the way that this was a very soft interview (thats why they agreed to it) and she did badly, imagine if it was a tough one. Can you also imagine the headlines and uproar if Joe Biden had made such errors (although of course he wouldnt)

The only plus I can see is that the arrival of Palin will shake any complacency out of the Obama camp.

Be afraid. Very afraid

Can someone explain to me how it is remotely possible for the Repugs to win, with stats like these?

[‘ According to USA Today in the 28 states that register voters by party affiliation the Democrats have added 2 million new voters in 2008 while Republicans have lost 344,000.’]

Are we really saying that despite the last 4 years, that the voters in the last election are switching from Democrat to Republican?

I really despair of the US.

asanque at 51
There are simply too many variables. The first black candidate is the first known unknown. The first candidate in a my living memory that I relate to – and that probably falls into unknown unknown (I’ve always wanted to be an unknown unknown). Etc. etc.

asanque that article is really good but its doesnt outline HOW Obama is going to regain the spotlight and momentum. Simply reverting back to the Obama of the primaries wont do that

I certainly think they need to push the 90% Bush line more. McCain has successfully and disingenously pushed the maverick line

‘There will be a slight difference in my moderation policy, which is to say that I will have one. More on that shortly.’

Not breathing. 🙂

BO has taken the gloves off and today is day one!

The new fighting spirit comes as McCain has been gaining in the polls and some Democrats have been expressing concern the Obama campaign has not been aggressive enough. Obama’s campaign says the escalation will involve advertising and pushes made by the candidate, running mate Joe Biden and other surrogates across the country.
“Today is the first day of the rest of the campaign,” Obama campaign manager David Plouffe says in a campaign strategy memo. “We will respond with speed and ferocity to John McCain’s attacks and we will take the fight to him, but we will do it on the big issues that matter to the American people.”

Gaffhook@65,
Obama looks sidelined,slightly awkward and note how little eye-contact was directed to him. Surely if McCain was bringing his wife, Obama should have had either Michelle, Biden or someone else with him. He needs to look as though he has support.

Ecky@63,
Love the Haliburton Childcare one 😆
Will Uncle Dicky come dressed up as Santa at Christmas festivities?

Sarah Palin looked like she was an ex-beauty queen with no knowledge of the world who had crammed for an exam. She has no idea and will only attempt to parrot what her Bush-minders have told her to say, if she can remember it.

I’m coming around to the idea that the best thing for the world might be another 4 years of catastrophic management in the US, dragging it down and making it less relevant.

Countries get the leaders they deserve, and the US deserves McCain and Palin, not Obama and Biden.

73
Dio
When you think about it that is the worst of two options that they are facing and voting for.
Definitely scary!

79
Andrew

William puts up a US thread and the Lib Trolls imediately start boxin on about Howard and Costello and OZ politics on it with all the other threads up. LOL

Thanks Gaffhook for the debate info. I cant see how Palin can survive the VP one. But the story will inevitably be that Biden was patronising, condescending, arrogant and/or sexist, I’m sure.

No matter how much we hate to admit, Palin has turned this race on its head. McCain/Palin may be lipstick on a pig, but the US public is more likely to just focus on the lovely lipstick and just not see the pig that’s wearing it. And guess what after GWB, even these two look good, I suppose

Diogenes#73-
whilst i agree that some Americans are stupid enough to deserve McPalin as POTUS, the rest of us get them as well.
And the fall out is dreadful –

I get what Diogenes is saying though. If after GWB, Iraq, the economy etc etc McCain/Palin win and then stuff it up, it could damage the repugs for a very long time. Of couse the wellbeing of the US and the world is at stake, so I’d rather not find out

Andrew –
I get it too. Trouble is they’ve already wreaked havoc for 8 years and i sincerely doubt we as a planet or a species can take too much more of what the Repugs have shovelled out to date.
Sarah Palin is an idiot – plain and simple.
McCain is old and out of touch and a thinly disguised replica of Bush, so lets hope that the good people of the US can see that Obama is the only way forward – flawed as he undoubtedly is – because I really think that the outcome of this election will have global repercussions like never before.

Diogs & Andrew – what the hell are you guys smokin’?
What makes you think that a nation that would vote for McPalin after the devastation of Bush is capable of learning anything from further devastation??? If the last 8 years haven’t damaged the GOP brand then nothing will.
As I said earlier, this lot are in denial (which from your comments appears to be catching). A further train wreck will just make them look for yet another incompetent to drive.

Chris B,

I was thinking last night that I had been a bit harsh yesterday; a bit too aggressive. I apologise.

I also wanted to make another comment on Rasmussen and the way they weight their findings by party ID.

The problem that Rasmussen has here is that if there is a major shift in party ID in a given month, it will not register in their tracking poll. This is because in effect they have made the decision not to believe their daily polling with regard to party ID but instead use the average of the previous three months.

If we examine Gallup, Gallup are reporting a fairly consistent shift in party ID over the past few days. Because they do not weight for party ID, this shift flows into their results. If it is temporary, of course, then Rasmussen will give us a truer picture of what is going on at the moment. However, if it is permanent, then it will take a full month for that permanent shift to show up in Rasmussen’s results – and even then it will be muted by the fact that they use the average of the last three months.

So, the decision of whether to weight by party ID is a tricky one for any polling company. Personally, I prefer that they do it. It reduces short-term bounces and gives us a more stable set of numbers to work with. However, if the bounces are more than bounces, it can hide shifting sentiment.

So, looking at a number of polls that have differing methodologies is likely to provide us with better information.

So Poss & Billbowe have sold out – their bloggers now served up as fodder for a plethora of blinking, flashing ubiquitous advertisers on a site that itself sold out (I’m looking at you Mr Kerr) yonks ago.

Sad.

Hold the line Cat. We’ll stand with you.

73
Diogenes

That’s the kind of cynical thought I have two or three times a day, and considering the slow burning financial implosion of the USA one has to fear that no government will be able to implement much in the way of change until it’s over and Americans learn to live within their means and consume less.

Don’t hold your breath, as they say. (It’s ironic that a country that uses some 25% of world oil production and has only 3% of the world’s reserves thinks that they can drill their way to energy independence! LOL).

I can’t see Obama or anyone fixing America until they get serious about their place in the world, (ie relinquish the notion they run it! LOL) and have taken their financial lumps.

Macca and Palin seem such appropriate clownish contenders for a decaying empire, don’t they?

Looks Like Ike will help the process Kirri – of course global warming has nothing to do with the severity and frequency of the weather they are experiencing – must be God’s reaction to trying to put a black man in the Whitehouse.
looks pretty dire, and yet Texans appear to be refusing to leave…denial even here.

Ferny et al

I am under no illusion that having another 4 years of Repugs at the helm will make the Americans wake up at all. I think they will become even more isolationist and xenophobic, esp is Palin ends up in the chair. McCain wouldn’t have been so bad if he didn’t have to sell his soul to the Right in exchange for their support.

My hope is that, if the Repugs get in, that the power and influence of the US will continue to decline sharply which would be a good thing.

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