I believe that Obama will retain all the Kerry states, including New Hampshire. I also believe he will win Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia. Read on to discover how Barack Obama will capture 310 electorial votes against 228 for John McCain.
With the current state of the polls and people’s interpretations of what the polls say is going to happen in 8 weeks varying by a large amount, I thought I would state just what is required to win in November, and what I personally believe will happen.
The results in 2004 were Kerry 251, Bush 286. The states that Obama can possibly take from McCain according to the polls are Colorado (9), Florida (27), Indiana (11), Iowa (7), Missouri (11), Montana (3), New Mexico (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Nevada (5), Ohio (20), South Dakota (3) and Virginia (13). The states McCain can possibly take are Michigan (17), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (21) and Wisconsin (10).
This gives Obama and McCain absolute maximums of 383 and 338 respectively.
Now to be more realistic about the candidate’s chances, the only state that McCain can reasonably believe he can take is New Hampshire. Obama on the other hand is almost guaranteed Iowa, while Colorado, Florida, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia are all very much in play.
This means that Obama’s likely maximum is 333 while McCain’s is 290.
Barack Obama needs 19 electoral votes more than Kerry to win, or 23 if McCain takes New Hampshire.
Oletko pystynyt nauttimaan reissuista samalla lailla kuin ennenkin tai onko pitänyt jättää jokin reissu tekemättä. Yhdessä nämä haittavaikutukset useimmiten eivät vaikeuta työtä, joten luultavasti tulee olemaan paikka, verkkosivusto johon ensin huomaat ne. Ei ole mun juttu vetää kloorin hajuista kemikaalia.”.