The State of Play

Welcome to new world. The door is open. Head caterer EC!
Well done Catrina and all the other helpers on our new place of abode.
The gloves will no doubt be coming off with the preliminary stages of the unlacing, followed slowly by the tearing off process as the cycle moves closer to Guy Fawkes day and all the big bungers that may be ignited and thrown under Goppers.
BO by plenty!

U.S. seizes Fannie and Freddie.
Treasury chief Paulson unveils historic government takeover of twin mortgage buyers. Top executives are out.

Federal officials on Sunday unveiled an extraordinary takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, putting the government in charge of the twin mortgage giants and the $5 trillion in home loans they back.

The move, which allows the Treasury to provide as much as $200 billion in capital to the two companies, marks Washington’s most dramatic attempt yet to shore up the nation’s housing market, which is suffering from record foreclosures and falling prices.

Hmm, I wonder who is going to be blamed for this mess, I am sure DG will have a different slant on this.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/07/news/companies/fannie_freddie/?postversion=2008090716

Palin to Sit Down With ABC News’ Charlie Gibson
Veep Pick Is Elusive Target for the Democrats.

Gov. Sarah Palin will sit down with ABC News’ Charlie Gibson for her first interview since winning the Republican vice presidential nomination, the network’s news division confirmed today.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=5747205&page=1

Virginia Adds 49K New Voters in August.
With time running out on its push to register thousands of new voters in Virginia, the Obama campaign is picking up the pace. State election officials told the campaign Friday that 49,000 new voters signed up in August, a sharp increase from the 36,500 who signed up in July and the 28,000 who registered in June.
The campaign had predicted that its August numbers could lag given the difficulty of reaching residents during vacation season. But the August gain puts the Obama campaign very much on track toward its goal of signing up 150,000 new voters by the early October voter registration deadline, on top of the 142,000 new voters who registered during primary season.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/09/06/obama_helps_register_49k_new_v.html

12
Progressive

Morinin’ Prog.

I’ve got a small wager for Obama to win over 300 EV’s so I’m with you on this one! LOL

Congratulations on the new site.

According to Drudge, the NYT is about to go with something bid on Palin’s baby.

McCain has 3 point lead after convention, more to come.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13228.html

22
GhostWhoVotes

I think Catrina has got Kirribillie so as to suggest ‘hillbillie’ (which is the official hillbilly spelling in case you weren’t familiar with the nuances: drop the y, add ‘ies’ for the plural, and so, by ‘hillbillie’ logic, you drop the ‘s’ to get the singular! LOL)

Who says hillbillies aren’t smart?

Spaminator alert!! Seems it doesn’t like Fairfax or politico, can’t blame it.

FG, the American dark age continues unabated.

Hiya Spam. have you had a nom de plume graft since we last spoke or have we never met?

Hi to you too Hussein. Unabated? Try rampant and psychotic.

congrat on the new site, and DG happy to call a truce and believe that you are not a concern troll.

Ferny Grover,

Actually, I am a pessimist compared to pretty much everyone here. But not in this case.

Bounces come and go, usually returning to the status-quo.

However, I think that Obama has some advantages here with recent economic news and Palin mobilising the Democratic base a tad. That is why I think that he will be up a little.

This will not have much impact on state polling, though. I expect that to be about where it was before the conventions.

As to sense and reason, America is different, yes. But we can look at historical convention bounces and see that they pretty much all fade in a few weeks.

Andrew,

No problems. 🙂

And that is what everyone should remember: the USA is right-wing. (We should recognise that Australia is right-wing, too, by the way – we voted for Howard four times in a row, and he needed no High Court help.)

Ah…righto Spam. I’m always happy to return a greeting to a friendly Inbox.

Thanks for that DG. The fact that it’s neck and neck this close to the line in the current climate is, in my view, grim for the Dems. They would not have expected to be in this position 8 weeks out. Is this a pro-Conservative thing – or a “anyone but the Dems” thing? As counter-intuitive as it may seem, the current economic uncertainty may just make folks cling to the familiar – and Grandpa McC has that in spades.

Ferny Grover at 41,

It has always been neck and neck, despite all of those folks predicting a landslide based on some mythical 50-state strategy.

The polls have always shown this. It is just that – for whatever reason – people have been inclined to toss the polls to one side. Foolish. This election will be close, with Obama winning it by two states that he will not win by more than a few per cent, with a national vote tally comparable to the Bush/Kerry spread.

I will give my opinion, but it will draw boos and hisses from the crowd. And I am a Clinton supporter.

The fact is, the Democrats selected their weakest candidate; the Republicans, their strongest.

Obama is the most left-leaning person in Congress. He is certainly from the so-called liberal elite. He has an atypical life history. He is black.

So, while he most certainly appeals to the left, he is anathema to the right.

And, quite simply, McCain appeals to moderates.

We know that the Democrats have trouble winning the presidency. It has only happened three times in the last 40 years. This is because time and again they have underestimated how far to the right the US actually is. Carter won after Nixon, for pete’s sake. Clinton won in part because of Perot and in part because he was more to the centre.

Depends on what you mean by weakest candidate, DG. If you have to walk and talk like a republican in order to win, then have the republicans lost? Clinton was a terrible President, his foreign policy sowed the seeds of 9/11 and was no break from the Republican continuum.

Australia is a conservative country, but Australians don’t play identity politics to the point of voting against their own best interests, like the Americans do. That is why Howard lost when he decided to attack the working class directly. That is the disconnect which exists in American politics, as identified by Obama with his talk of people clinging to guns and religion. The Coalition’s election platform would be the far more liberal than either Obama’s or Clinton’s if presented in the American context.

Anyhoo, we’ve done this to death over the last few months. Even you are predicting an Obama win aren’t you, DG? So he can’t be that weak.

I agree that from our perspective Obama is not really on the left. But within the American spectrum, he most certainly is.

Principles are the name of the game, DG. As I said in an earlier post on the old site. For educated liberals and the real poor, who are Obama’s biggest constitiuencies, nothing much has changed or will change in an economic sense, over the years. It’s the working class who are backsliding.

Why ‘should’ Obama be streets ahead?

In general terms, the working class have completely different social values than the intellectual left. They always have. This is what the Republicans have always known and the Democrats have not yet figured out – probably because they are run by the intellectuals and not the working class.

David- because of Bush.
Proverbial Drover’s Dog scenario.

Why Obama would be streets ahead, if you added moose shooting to the list. 🙂

http://www.aflcio.org/aboutus/thisistheaflcio/outfront/obamaendorsement.cfm
http://blog.aflcio.org/2008/06/26/afl-cio-endorses-obama-launches-meet-barack-obama/

DG, Obama has figured it out. he just doesn’t want to go down that path. It’s often puzzled me why New York, the icon city that is the target of most of the terrorist attacks, is a solidly blue state. Yet so many smaller states that don’t figure on the terrorists radar want to vote republican because their country is under attack. X)

Good Afternoon and Happy Birthday, men and women of the One Hundred and First Fighting Pollies. We have lift off. Independent lift off, that is, and it feels mighty good.
Catrina, thank you for your determination, patience and techno-savvy. And hearty congratulations.

Ladies and Gentleman, please be upstanding and with your glasses suitably charged, a toast:

TO CATRINA!

*glug glug glug*

While Cat kept megan and I “in the loop” re the vicissitudes and tribualtions of our C of A and rebranding, all the hard yakka was Cat’s.
———————–
Mon Sept 8:
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/nonsequitur;_ylt=A0WTUcoot8RIuoAATQADwLAF
———————–
Great to see you, Ferny and Dio.
Now, back to read all the comments:)

The trick is not necessarily being right wing. It is appearing to be right wing in the necessary – ie, vote-getting – ways.

The suffering of people is at issue here. To minimise suffering, we need the least right-wing government that we can get. Losing with nobility does not actually help people.

In any case, I am simply responding to all those people who seem to think that it is bizarre that this election is close. Understanding why is very important.

I was going for pompous, but that will do. 😉

67
Kerneels

The “Howard’s battlers” syndrome was predicated on two broad principles: bribe the middle and working class with their own money, and scare the sh!t out of the not so bright ones that the Opposition would require their first-borne as down payment on remaining citizens, (or some such ludicrous proposition).

Fear and bribery worked for Howard, it worked for Bush, and momentarily (according to the never quite reliable polls), and it’s working for Macca, who since dragging out Rambo-Moose-Mom has seen his stocks rise.

And check the ‘base’, the ones who vowed to vote for Clinton instead of McCain, like Ann (‘the demented’) Coulter, and Rush (me to detox) Limbaugh spring to mind here, they are suddenly all cock-a-hoop since Macca found this hunting dog that can do tricks like bad-mouth Democrats on stage. Andadd in the creationists and the anti-abortionists and the loopy nutters that Macca p!ssed off years ago by telling the truth about: “agents of intolerance” he called them.

But with Sarah prancing around with the raw steak in her mouth, they’ve all started swooning about the Republican ticket, which from where I sit, is one old guy who’s been Bush’s doppleganger on just about everything for two terms, and a moose shootin’ version of Ann Coulter (with more kids and somewhat better personal grooming).

Moose Hunting with Jesus is fine (as long they take along Dick Cheney for some payback) for the rednecks and wanna be frontiersmen and women, but it’s got nothing to do with policy in real terms, and everything to do with tribal identification. In some ways Palin is just another (weird) variation on the Latter Day Confederates, and I’m never quite sure how much is calculated pandering and how much is the result of inbreeding, but there’s no denying it works…to some degree.

Here’s Obama’s challenge: to push this fringe stuff to the fringe (where it truly belongs) and replace it with a political dialogue that’s engaging and relevant. Given the dire position of America, there’s really plenty to talk about other than a dancing moose hound’s stage show.

Hi Kirri- too true. It is too horrible to contemplate that the Repugs could regain power simply because they appeal to the ill informed.
However we know it happens- too often. I was just hoping (and still am) that we were finally going to see neoconservatism ousted. Instead it’s getting a bounce cos of the Moose-shootin’ Mamma …
and the Fundies get power too.
Holy Hell.

57 David Gould I think we have gone over this so many times David. No point in explaining again and again and again.

[The trick is not necessarily being right wing. It is appearing to be right wing in the necessary – ie, vote-getting – ways.]

The REAL trick is getting the MSM on board. It doesn’t matter whether a presidential candidate’s politics is Left or Right, their policies, character, history, the whole she-bang, is easily spun into a positive or negative narrative. If you don’t believe me, just watch Fox News. The sad thing is that the U.S. has masses of unthinking people who will soak up the narrative and vote accordingly, even when their vote goes to someone who is likely to act AGAINST their personal interests. There are lots of Homer Simpsons out there. My impression is that this is less the case in Australia, as demonstrated by the previous federal election.

These days, part of getting the media on side is to preach Right-wing politics, but it doesn’t have to be this way. Obama needs to find ways of getting as many talking heads on side as possible. Fortunately though, his campaign is loaded with cash, so he can bypass the media to some extent with plenty of advertisements going direct to people’s living rooms, but if the media commentary runs against him, the road ahead will be much harder.

Hypothetically: how would Hillary have gone against McCain?
Where would the polls be right now if she was the Democratic candidate?
David: I knew you wouldn’t be able to resist this one!

Gaffhook @ 74

That was brilliant! Sums just about everything up at this stage.

One thing I am curious about (and I mentioned this back on the original PB blog a week ago) is that some people are absolutely insistent that had Hillary scored the nomination that she would be streets ahead of McCain by this stage. At least that’s what the rabid Hillary supporters have been spouting.

But exactly what proof is it that they have that leads to this conclusion that Hillary would have had the race in the bag had she scored the Democrat nomination? Wouldn’t we be looking at the same sort of split that we have right now? And the 18 million voters of Hillary appear to be OK with the result now and are leaning towards getting fully behind Obama.

I guess my point in all of this is that I cannot understand what would have made Hillary a stronger candidate than Obama to the point where she would virtually be assured the Presidency on a platter. There is nothing to suggest that it would go either way, poll-wise. From what I saw during the Primaries, they were both very strong candidates and both would do very well in the election. Right now, all I care about is trying to ensure that the Democrats as a whole are the party that wins on November 4.

78
Enemy Combatant

It’s the orange jump suit Ecky…the system is programmed to keep your type on the other side of the razor wire! LOL

EC

You must have called the witchdoctor a cute little fella!

It’s not the moose murdering that’s the biggest worry! Just check out Palin’s ‘vermin eradication’ policy in the form of aerial shooting of wolves (the varmints kill ‘our’ moose!) and you realise she’s the got the ‘final solution’ hard wired into her DNA.

And scientific assessment? Well who needs science? Certainly not this moose in wolve’s clothing!

This article in Salon gives a much better idea of who Sarah Palin really is than her stand-up routine in Minnesota:

http://www.salon.com/env/feature/2008/09/08/sarah_palin_wolves/

…pro-gun and pro-life just as long as you don’t howl. If you do…look out!

89 I have some concern about that figure megan.

The GOP poll bounce is particularly “character building” for supporters of The Kid. So is the fact that Olbermann has been demoted from his “anchor role” at MSNBC in favour of “Rap Dancing for Carl” lap dog, David Gregory.
Obi’s telly ads have been formulaic and relatively tame (cf link in right column to 538) and the MSM are fawning for the “Fuhrer Touch” from Mistress Sarah, as it was so accurately identified, by Anabel Crabbe in her lastest Op-Ed in SMH online.

For Obama to be where he is at this point of the campaign is a feat of leadership and teamwork. Team Kid have got a monumental fight on their hands. When opposing forces attack, a great leader rallies the troops to hold fast.
The old United We Stand routine. Obama must do this quickly to capitalise on his ground game advantage, because GOPper fundies (organisers, sidewalk pounding footsoldiers) have just had a rev-up extraordinaire from Yup-Yup Palin and this effect must be countered with rank and file registrations and enthusiasm.

The electorate at large have engaged and many are dazzled by Palin, but will the thrill fade in another 50 or 60 news cycles before the One on One debates between the leaders? Palin has a tame interview on ABC next Sunday. Apart from that she’s been quarantined because so far, her handlers are afraid she’ll fail under her “close-ups”.

By next weekend if McCain’s “bounce enhanced” poll advantage hasn’t been smoothed out, then Obi could have pause for con…..con…..con…cons…cons….CONCERN!. (goddammit)
The lock Baz has on the 12 ECVs in IA and NM are no doubt a source of consolation in these turbulent times.

Today’s polls produced a “shit, eh?” and a raised eyebrow, but that knawing feeling deep inside that is the harbinger of imminent defeat?

No way!
——————-
Merci megan, the ignominy of it all:sad:
And thanks to the reident smart arses for your warm gestures of support.
Ve know vere you peeble liff:evil: