I believe that Obama will retain all the Kerry states, including New Hampshire. I also believe he will win Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia. Read on to discover how Barack Obama will capture 310 electorial votes against 228 for John McCain.
With the current state of the polls and people’s interpretations of what the polls say is going to happen in 8 weeks varying by a large amount, I thought I would state just what is required to win in November, and what I personally believe will happen.
The Numbers
The results in 2004 were Kerry 251, Bush 286. The states that Obama can possibly take from McCain according to the polls are Colorado (9), Florida (27), Indiana (11), Iowa (7), Missouri (11), Montana (3), New Mexico (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Nevada (5), Ohio (20), South Dakota (3) and Virginia (13). The states McCain can possibly take are Michigan (17), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (21) and Wisconsin (10).
This gives Obama and McCain absolute maximums of 383 and 338 respectively.
Now to be more realistic about the candidate’s chances, the only state that McCain can reasonably believe he can take is New Hampshire. Obama on the other hand is almost guaranteed Iowa, while Colorado, Florida, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia are all very much in play.
This means that Obama’s likely maximum is 333 while McCain’s is 290.
Barack Obama needs 19 electoral votes more than Kerry to win, or 23 if McCain takes New Hampshire.
Oletko pystynyt nauttimaan reissuista samalla lailla kuin ennenkin tai onko pitänyt jättää jokin reissu tekemättä. Yhdessä nämä haittavaikutukset useimmiten eivät vaikeuta työtä, joten luultavasti tulee olemaan paikka, verkkosivusto johon ensin huomaat ne. Ei ole mun juttu vetää kloorin hajuista kemikaalia.”.
542 replies on “The State of Play”
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EC at 401
ROTFLOL … stop, stop!
Looks like whe Olberman spits he really spits.
Does he mind havin a dump on McStupid?
No Sir he just lets it all go. Ha Ha
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/10/olbermann-slams-republica_n_125525.html
401
What a breakup!
I’m sorry Catrina……. I’m afraid I can’t do that 👿
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Gafhook at 403
Wow – Olberman in full flight!
EC at 405 – a space before the first colon!
Gaffers @403.
sheesh… that’s telling him.
Olberman for POTUS.
But does he have executive experience?
I think he can shoot a carribou between the eyes so that’s enough isn’t it?
Hey all!
Does anyone else watch THE VIEW on Channel 9 at 12PM(weekdays)?
They have a good discussion on the election/U.S politics every day, and the vast majority of the ladies are Democrats, only one Republican on the panel! Whoopi Goldberg is the host!
Progressive at 411
I love The View.
It’s sort of somewhere between trash and the real thing.
I wonder if Sarah Palin will come on their show?
The Republicans are certainly shielding her from too much scrutiny.
Progressive at 413
I doubt it – those girls are much too opinionated.
Chris B at 344, and others,
On the sampling issue, I suggest that you read Nate on fivethirtyeight.
No pollster rigs their data. All they do is randomly sample, and then publish the raw numbers – including the number of Republicans and Democrats. As it is a random sample, sometimes they will get more Republicans than there are; sometimes they will get more Democrats than there are. Over time, and across multiple polling companies, these random samples will even out to reflect the US population. That is why the RCP average is so useful – it smooths out these kinds of things.
In state polling, with lower sample sizes, the margins of error are obviously greater. Again, that is why using an average of polls is a very good idea, as they reduce this.
Rasmussen is an interesting exception. They continually survey to work out what percentage of the US are Republican, Democrat or Independent. Then when they poll they weight the replies according to those numbers. In other words, if there surveys are showing them that there are 40 per cent Democrats, 30 per cent Republicans and 30 per cent Independent, and they do a poll that gives them 40/40/20, they weight the Democrat and Independent responses more than the Republican ones.
What this all means is that any individual poll may be suspect, because it is randomly sampled. But over time we build up an accurate picture. When you add to that the fact that Rasmussen weights according to known party identification figures – they would agree with 11 million more Democrats – we can have relative confidence that the polling is indeed giving us an accurate picture of what is happening in the electorate.
There is no conspiracy going on here, despite all the fantasies. Sorry.
“Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For September, the targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis). For the month of August, the targets were 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated. ”
From Rasmussen.
403 Gaffhook Absolutely SAVAGE! At last a media company with some backbone. Is this the start? Have they had a wake up call? That’s two in a row from MSNBC. Looking forward to more of the same.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/10/olbermann-slams-republica_n_125525.html
406
Cat
He may be trying to get his spot back after being shovelled sideways!
416 David Gould There are 11 million more Democrats than Republicans. They do not take this into account.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/9/18192/04144/290/592615
That’s why the polls are wrong.
Whoops, I didn’t mean to repeat that, 3 times.
Here is more information as to what they are not taking into account.
Going on this stuff the Democrats are sitting pretty.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/07/a_new_electorate_in_the_making.html
Chris B,
Rasmussen does. Look at the percentages from Rasmussen that I just quoted.
Further, as I said, all other polls are random samples. As such, over time they will show the correct numbers. Any single poll is going to be in error. An aggregate of them will not be.
For example, let us say that the population is 40, 30, 30 for D, R and I. And let us say that the population is splitting 52 to 48 for Obama.
If we randomly sample 1000 people, the poll will be within around three per cent of the correct result 95 per cent of the time – for both party identification and voting intention.
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Seems like Turdblossoms protege is reading Jezebel!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/10/mccain-camp-fish-wrapped_n_125450.html
Holy Fck. Can it get any worse?
The mean spirited McShame party intends to cage black voters in Michigan who have been foreclosed on.
Lose your house-Lose your vote
http://www.michiganmessenger.com/4076/lose-your-house-lose-your-vote
OK@ 425. It just did.
424
Jen
Maybe!
Do you reckon married crabs should have nippers?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/10/palins-earmarks-crab-mati_n_125506.html
New polls from battleground states!
Obama now ahead in Colorado, Florida and Michigan still tight, McCain has strengthened in other Bush red states:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/10/181944/119/878/594085
Gaffers-
only if they are really married – as in, none of that fake same-sex kind of marriage like Ellen and Portia. And only if they go to church and are fit to raise the nippers in the One True Faith. Otherwise, can’t see a problem.
From Gaffy’s link at 423:
“But I’m not laughing anymore! Because “fish in a wrapper” is precisely the fake offense the McCain camp is faking being offended by now!”
jen at 424: “Holy Fck. Can it get any worse?”
Perhaps it’s best if you be the judge on this one, jen.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=bt8IF0SoIEM&feature=related
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430 Enemy Combatant It’s interesting to note that the polls are saying one thing and the cartoons are saying exactly the opposite. If you read into them.
Chris at 431:
“It’s interesting to note that the polls are saying one thing and the cartoons are saying exactly the opposite.”
Chris, I’m biased mate. Only put the occasional right wing ‘toony in if it’s a really good cartoon. In such instances, expertise in the artform transcends one’s political preference. With a few notable exceptions, most RW cartoonists lack wit.
Unlike Drill Baby Yup-Yup, all my cartoons are thoroughly vetted and in a selection process as fussy as John West’s, a lot of “fish” are rejected. They are them summararily shredded at my cyber-staion, then disseminated via the inter-tubes as downscale troll fodder:)
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Edward Norton and Elliot Gould in a scene from American History X.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=8hEtN0-vF90
Attitudes held by the Norton character are endemic in the Appalachians and The South. “Deer Hunting for Jesus” territory like Virginia was always going to be a tall order for a candidate propagandistically perceived as slighting them for “clinging to guns and religion”. Not impossible, just a hard ask.
This election will be won in the West where bigotry is not as entrenched as in States that bought The Imbecile in 04:
IA (7 ECVs)
NM (5ECVs)
CO (9ECVs)
NV(5ECVs)
The Kid will need to defend hard in MI, MN, WI, WA and OR. He has the ground game to do it , except in MI due to the primaries fiasco. Expect Barry’s Michigan TV ads to be on high rotation and expect a surge in his personal appearances. He spent a good deal of yesterday in MI.
After Drill Baby Yup-Yup makes her first couple of mega-gaffes and as her past begins to unfurl into the national conversation, there will be Ads.
A Colorado night-fill manager and family are motoring along a scenic Rocky Mountain road on their way to Sunday church. The driver flicks on the radio……
(Woman’s voice; Mid-Western working class accent, deeply concerned but not whiney):
Can America afford to have Sarah Palin a heartbeat away from The Presidency?
We’ve lived through eight years of Bush/Cheney Republicanism….
McCain/ Palin are offering nothing but more of the same.
(Man’s voice; cowboy accent, firm measured):
Enough is Enough!
For eight long years John McCain voted 90% with George Bush and America is broken!
Barack Obama and Joe Biden will put America back together again.
—o0o—
I’m Barack Obama and I approve this message
EC paroled at 423
Just as a matter of interest, what were the polls saying about Bush/Kerry 2 months out from the 04 election? If I remember rightly Kerry was a mile (well….around 10 points) in front.
NYT: On Letterman, Obama Discusses Palin ‘Phenomenon’
FG at 435
Not according to this …
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html
Thanks Cat. According to those figures, the impact of the swiftboaters is debateable. Other than that, what these figures tell us is that looking at figures this far out tells us very little at all.
So I see the “lipstick” comment has now become a controversy. Anyone who thinks this was a gaffe by Obama rather than a deliberate comment is kidding themselves. It was a great way to make his point and the attention he has gotten proves that. More, please!!!
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Thurs Sept 11:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=Apme9Z8xm_wEsLwWtdbZboxJ_b4F
Thurs Sept 11:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/billschorr;_ylt=AmRW6TqmOkYFqseubECFS6zV.i8C
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/58786
Andrew at 439
I agree. The word “lipstick” is now synonymous with “pig” which in turn is synonymous with “Bush”, the “Republican Party”, “McCain” and “Palin”. It’s brilliant!
🙂
Info on the Obama Campaign thinking on Hillary/Palin ..
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/09/hillary_weighs_in_on_lipstickg.php
http://bovinefeces.com/press/wp-content/uploads/2008/03/lipstickpig.jpg
The following cartoon break is brought to you by Blind Pig Records a subsidiary to Hot Hog Productions:
http://www.mach500.net/homes/users/MikeHannum/gateway-logo.gif
Thurs Sept 11:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffstahler;_ylt=AhDvIqPxBL9NpcCAPKhVt6FU_b4F
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/58852
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Thurs Sept 11:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/ettahulme;_ylt=AsW4ckk8X3M2H08F8yNw_Q3V.i8C
Thurs Sept 11:
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/doonesbury;_ylt=A0WTUZHW8MhI5t4ALioDwLAF
Mr Combatant- you have crossed the line .
I may not be able to get off the floor for days…
xx
I was thinking last night that Jon Stewart picked a hell of a time to go on holiday. This lipstick on a pig thing is comedy gold. Luckily we have EC to fill the void. 🙂
And who is this “White Women” voter block???
Does it include:
Women under 50?.
Atheist White women?
Women who Run with the Wolves (instead of shooting them from planes?)
Women Who Detest Republicans?
Women who Wouldn’t Vote for Hillary Just Because She’s a woman But Who would Give Her Their Preference any Day Over Sarah Palin?
Women Who Love Their Kids And Therefore Don’t Want Them To witness The Senseless slaughtering Of Wildlife?
Women who Think Abortion Is Sad But Don’t Think Every Act Of Unprotected Sex should Result In 25 Years Of Parenting, espacially If You Are 16?
Women Who Think We Should Protect the Wilderness areas Left To Us and Lessen Our Dependancvy On OIL?
Women Who Would Rather Die Than Send Their Child To A Senseless Immoral War?
and…(most importantly)
Women Who love George Clooney???
If that’s Sarah – she’s got my vote.
Actually, she hasn’t because I can’t vote in the US election. So I’ll give it to Pauline in her honour.
A rather pointer article over on the Huffington Post:
While Rome Burned…They Talked About Lipstick
Some key points about what is actually happening in the real world:
* U.S. global leadership is dwindling
* Market diving, another massive bank may collapse
* Fear of violence, terrorism slows Iraq withdrawal
* Iraqi parliament gridlocked
* Economy weakening
* On 9/11 anniversary, aviation still vulnerable
* Unemployment rising
* Federal deficit ballooning
* U.S. ‘running out of time’ in Afghanistan
* Military suicides reaching record levels
* U.S.-Russia relations worsening
* OPEC trying to prevent oil prices from falling
Barack Obama and David Letterman on the subjects of pigs and lipstick.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/10/obama-appears-on-letterma_n_125509.html
🙂
Yeah, it’s a jungle out there, Cat, but someone’s got to live in it:)
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CBet:
OBAMA, Barack 1.62
MCCAIN, John 2.25
http://www.bizarrerecords.com/galleries/stretch/MissPiggy.jpg
But then along came that Justin Timberlake fellah and swept her of her trotters. She vowed upon betrothal to do anything to help his career. (TOP LEFT)
http://images.google.com.au/images?gbv=2&hl=en&q=miss+piggy&btnG=Search+Images
http://www.salon.com/comics/tomo/2008/09/09/tomo/
A must watch video – Mike Huckabee doing stand-up on memories of the campaign trail. It is really really good – and I mean it’s good enough to change your whole take on Mike Huckabee!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lYKLy_O0hAE
433 Enemy Combatant. Your biased? Well, I never.
I assume you mean by that, that there are a lot more cartoons the other way.
435 Ferny Grover State of play 2004
Both Obama and Kerry were on 273 Bush was on 233 McCain is on 238. According to votemaster.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Sep11.html
Votemaster has a link to this day in 2004 on the front.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
This is why the Democrats are going to clean up big time.
Hillary lost because she under estimated the enrollment of new voters, the same way David is under estimating them.
EC just in case you haven’t picked it up, I a biased too. 😈
Just in case anyone was wondering how the Latino registration was going in Texas, here is a link.
TEXAS LULAC VOTER REGISTRATION PROJECT
2008 MOVIMIENTO
http://www.tx-lulac.org/pdf/Movimiento2008.pdf
ALL FOR ONE AND ONE FOR ALL
Just for you David. Oh, of course the polls have taken them into account. Drat!
Collectively with other Latino organizations, the goal is to register a quarter million (250,000) new voters before October 6, 2008.
http://www.tx-lulac.org/pdf/Movimiento2008.pdf
ALL FOR ONE AND ONE FOR ALL.
I don’t know why they bother signing them up then.
Morning all –
Analysis of the state of play in Philadelphia
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/11/us/politics/11web2-seelye.html
Bill Clinton just wrapped up lunch with Barack Obama, and in a quick back-and-forth with reporters, revealed that he’d be doing lots of campaigning for Obama and predicted a sizable Obama win.
Also – at least someone in the US is speaking up. Matt Damon expressing his opinion on the Palin candidacy.
Catrina @ 453
As an avid watcher of Colbert and the Daily Show, I think Mike Huckabee is a very likeable person – a decent guy with his heart in the right place, even if he has weird religious views.
Colbert commented recently that he should have been the VP candidate, because despite wanting to change the Constitution to make it reflect Christian principles, everyone still liked him.
And he’s been very funny on those shows.
Everyone can relax.
Sarah Palin says she’s ready to be President. So everything is going to be ok.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24334019-5003402,00.html
Gawd, she even speaks like Pauline H…….except for the God-bothering bits.
Ferny released @463
Chris B,
The polls take into account people who are already signed up, for Pete’s sake. Obviously, they cannot predict the numbers of people who will sign up in the future.
Seriously, what about the Rasmussen analysis, which shows that the Democrats have millions more registered than the Republicans, do you disagree with?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/09/update_on_obamas_first.html
Indicates where Obama wasted his money and where it has paid off.
Fukuda resignation shakes up Japan’s ruling party.
Over the past 20 years, Japan has had 13 prime ministers. In a pattern rarely seen outside the communist world, individual leaders have come and gone, but the ruling party has remained the same.
Now, Japan is once again looking for a leader, its third in two years. But this time, the party could be in trouble, too.
Unable to deal with inconclusive battles in parliament, chronically low support ratings and repeated beatings from a surging opposition, Japan’s last two prime ministers have simply thrown in the towel — raising questions over whether Japan’s long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party still has the stomach for leadership.
A defeat for the conservative government here would be almost as big as a clean sweep for Obama.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hotQkQVZmta6IxHymDntoGBbRuigD934KDTG1
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5j_fI-3wOvF24DtOJDWaS8cJzrqsAD934OJ480
We haven’t heard from Kirri for a while….
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/us_world/2008/09/11/2008-09-11_cia_launches_offensive_against_al_qaeda_.html
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/webscout/2008/09/whos-the-lillip.html
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jMtvzhUJmkDwVPsjJ0vhp-MDl1-gD934QN4G0
kerneels at 486
Sent him an email just the other day asking for his input on his obituary. He sent me an email back suggesting we hold off from that for the moment. Seems like a slight fever has knocked him about a bit. I.e. down but not out.
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/09/ex-sen-chafee-m.html
Republican for Obama Endorsements.
http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/gopendorse/
Ferny Grover
Did you read that drivel?… can somebody tell me what the f#(k blinking has to do with anything?
Spam Inbox at 475
I hope your not suggesting the the American media is anything less than a hard hitting, fact based, in depth, critical instrument of American free speech and democratic process.
I wonder is this little development has any legs …
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/26649468#26649468
And here is the article over on the Nation
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080929/berman_ames
Back to the 11 million more voters that the Democrats have over the Repugs.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/9/18192/04144/290/592615
This figure must be underestimated because… only 26 states have registration data.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/08/05/america/voters.php
So if the polls are right as of now, Obama must have started well behind John Kerry’s 2004 figures. Yeah right.
476
Moi? heaven forfend 😉
That’s three, very negative stories in a row from MSNBC. They are developing some backbone. Wonder how long before the others start?
MSNBC have always been pro-Obama, though. That was what all the controversy was about. It makes me wonder how FOX survives being pro-McCain, when any news agency pro-Obama ends up running into problems. Is it because the right are more organised than the left in the US? Are the right’s lobby groups simply slicker than the left’s?
If, unlike me, you have any money, now is the time to buy contracts on Obama to win on Intrade. When the McCain bounce peters out next week – Tuesday, our time, is my pick for Obama to have a firm lead – the Intrade number will zoom back up again.
Palin won’t rule out war with Russia
US Republican vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin says the USA would have no option but to defend Georgia if it was attacked by Russia after being admitted to NATO.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/12/2362710.htm
Intrade has already begun to move back towards Obama in the last few hours. It was neck and neck yesterday.
I know the mention of the name will give some of you nightmares but…Whatever happened tro Ralph Nader??
The polls are a bounce at the moment, Chris. What you need to do is compare Obama being 2-3 points up in the polls (which is where he will soon be, and probably a touch higher) with Kerry. Kerry lost by 2 per cent out of 120 million votes, which is a loss by 2.4 million. If we change the figure to around 130 million voters – there will likely be larger turnout this time – and, then Obama being 2.6 per cent in front gives him a 3.4 million lead in the popular vote, a turnaround of 5.8 million votes.
Bush won by two per cent of the vote, and one state.
Obama winning by 2.6 per cent, or a little more – my prediction is by a bit over three per cent – fits nicely with my two state prediction.
Indeed, if we look at an even swing of five per cent across the electoral college, there are only four states that are within reach for Obama that are not in my projection – Florida, Virginia, Arizona and Missouri. It is obvious why Arizona can be ruled out of contention.
Virginia is very close, and my model puts it on a knife’s edge, just giving the coin flip to McCain.
As for Florida and Missouri, they seem to be defying the trend. But given Obama’s large gains in solid red and solid blue states, some states must defy the trend.
Nader is claiming 6% in Michigan according to his website.
http://www.votenader.org/index.html
The lipstick on a pig has helped Obama, I think. Palin has gone from the pitbull with lipstick to little red riding hood, pursued by the big bad wolves.
I like this comment on HuffPost about the republicans using political correctness to defend Palin.
“…there may have been good ways to take shots at Obama over the “lipstick on a pig” comment. But the Republicans are coming across as whiny grievance-mongers. Don’t they realize that this harping on ambiguous slights is what people hate about political correctness? It was bad enough when liberals were trying to destroy Palin. Now Republicans are trashing her brand. They’re undermining the basis of her appeal as a different, tougher kind of female politician. Today has been worse than wasted.”
I think the talented, clean-living young candidate needs to keep knuckling up to the old man and the hokey mom.
HusseinWorm,
I have to disagree. Any minute of the campaign that is not spent talking about the economy is a victory for the Republican campaign. Spending even more time on this Obama versus Palin thing is a very bad thing for Obama. He cannot win in a fight with a vice-presidential candidate. Palin has completely dominated the news for two weeks now. There are only 8 weeks to go. It has to stop.
David, you seem to have the impression that Americans are interested in real issues when they are showing every indication of being a nation in complete denial.
Not saying that he shouldn’t keep talking about the economy, David. The economy is Obama’s strong point, but there are many ways of talking about the economy. Obama spends hours everyday talking about the economy and none of it gets to the eyes or ears of voters, outside of the rent-a-crowds, because it’s dry, boring policy talk. He’s not a lecturer, he’s a politician. He needs to be less Steve Erkel and more Chris Rock.
Not saying it’s right, just saying how it is.
Ferny Grover,
They are not interested in economic policy abstracts. But they are interested in how much money they have in their pocket. People generally vote their economic self-interest.
In other words, if I am unemployed in Ohio, but I passionately oppose abortion, I am still more likely to vote for Obama rather than Palin.
HusseinWorm,
I agree. But he should not attack Palin. He should attack McCain and Republican Party policy.
Audio of an extremely dumb Palin being interviewed, with commentary.
Sarah Palin: war with Russia?
http://media.smh.com.au/?rid=41692
Ferny Grover at 486:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=obama%2C+mccain%2C+nader&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=mtd&sort=2
Someone made an earlier comment about the SwiftBoating of Kerry starting in the last two weeks of the election campaign.
The SwiftBoating – ie, ads run by Swift Boat Veterans for Truth – of Kerry actually took place during August.
Mass spam breakout!
David Gould at 466, Thomas Paine at 484 and 495 , and Ferny Grover at 488.
Frankly, you can put lipstick on a Palin and she’d still be a pig
Ferny Grover at 499
If you had to choose between McCain OR Palin for POTUS – who would you choose?