Palin for VP and Two Speeches

Sex dominates GOP’s opening day.

The big story on the first day of the Republican National Convention had nothing to do with politics. It had everything to do with sex, which some consider almost as exciting.

Everybody on and off the convention floor was chattering about how the 17-year-old daughter of John McCain’s running mate, Sarah Palin, is five months pregnant and unmarried.

And while being pregnant and unmarried is hardly a phenomenon in America these days, it was not supposed to be the major talking point of the convention’s opening day.

Sex, I’ve heard it’s so good that one day I might even try it.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13063.html

David, if this election is so close, how do you explain 40 million viewers. How do you explain everything Obama does, he attracts record crowds?

Um, with over 100 million voters, what is surprising about 40 million wanting to see what Obama has to say? We’re interested, and we’re not even voting!

‘Record crowds’ is exciting visually, but meaningless in terms of measuring political appeal.

I would also ask you the reverse question: how do you explain the polling that shows that this election will be close?

How do you explain all the independent political websites, from electoral-vote to fivethirtyeight to possum to electoralprojection, along with many others, showing that this election will be close?

I go with the data, not gut feelings.

Palimpest Palinfest:

Multitudes painstakingly peeling the the petals from Sarah’s past.

The Imbecile is gonna front day 2 of the GOPper Hootenanny. Gobble gobble.
On hearing the joyful tidings, the purest of heart from Bush’s “base”, to the bewiderment of close family and friends milling nearby on the Convention floor, were raptured on the spot.

“Wow! What a neat exit strategy, just like Star-Trek!” said a stunned attendee sporting a “Pre-Teens for Jesus” T-shirt.

Meanwhile, hordes of unwashed street demonstraters, swarming Satanists and unabashed Leftists wished beyond hope that Dubya would lay another “hug of death” on Pappy Bomb-Bomb just for old times’ sakes.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/09/bush-to-speak-t.html

One could expect a few demonstrators from either side to try to protest at the respective conventions.
Apparently there were a few ugly scenes at the DNC.

Looks like the plods in Minnesota were havin a ball before the protests even got under way.

The Goppers have made an art out of protecting private citizens from themselves.

Everybody in, mind yer fingers when we shut the doors.

How to win friends and swingin voters.

There is clearly an intent on the part of law enforcement authorities here to engage in extreme and highly intimidating raids against those who are planning to protest the Convention. The DNC in Denver was the site of several quite ugly incidents where law enforcement acted on behalf of Democratic Party officials and the corporate elite that funded the Convention to keep the media and protesters from doing anything remotely off-script. But the massive and plainly excessive preemptive police raids in Minnesota are of a different order altogether. Targeting people with automatic-weapons-carrying SWAT teams and mass raids in their homes, who are suspected of nothing more than planning dissident political protests at a political convention and who have engaged in no illegal activity whatsoever, is about as redolent of the worst tactics of a police state as can be imagined.

http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2008/08/30/police_raids/index.html

108 Catrina I agree with you on that point, but I was also worried about what would happen in the Federal election here. But then maybe the Libs aren’t as devious as the Repugs.

Good Evening Recalcitrant Ones

I thought I’d share this with you. Intrade has a new category to bet on;

Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee before 2008 presidential election.

Currently at 15.0% up from 3.0%.

McCain is an idiot. 😀

And the fact that a few days after her nomination there is betting on her withdrawal and denials from the reougs that there is any talk of her being dropped, says it all

Andrew @118 rescued from Spamojaws…

Andrew at 120

Thing is she has captured the headlines – yes, most of it negative – but none of it worthy of a crucifixion. And in some perverse way (only possible in a place like the USA) it is generating excitement within the GOP base and that excitement is leaching into excitement for McCain.

Completely off-topic (but maybe not) – Hurricane Hanna is working its way north but just at the moment its removing any dust of that place know as Guantanamo Bay (it’s about 160 miles to the East but close enough to cause a distraction).

Apart from the article which is well worth a gander, have a butcher’s at the figures in the left hand column.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/essential-difference.html

Gallup Daily: Obama 49% to 43%
(and this is the first real post convention poll)
What is shows is a hardening of the undecided vote – both McCain and Obama moving up and the number of undecided voters dropping down.

PRINCETON, NJ — Gallup’s first tracking report based entirely on post-Democratic convention attitudes shows Barack Obama maintaining a six percentage point lead over John McCain, the same as Sunday’s report. According to interviews conducted Aug. 29-31, national registered voters prefer Obama 49% to 43%.

And in another notable comment …

Any hope the Republicans had of shifting into convention high gear and nullifying Obama’s convention gains have been thrown to the wind with Hurricane Gustav making landfall on the Gulf Coast today. Republican convention planners are now forced to improvise their way through what otherwise promised to be a highly scripted week in St. Paul. Ongoing Gallup Poll Daily tracking will help to determine whether they are successful or not in focusing Americans on their efforts, and striking the right chords with voters.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109954/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Maintains-6Point-Lead-49-43.aspx

From the same poll it seems that the disafected Clinton supporters are disapaiting rapidly ..

PRINCETON, NJ — The Democratic convention appears to have helped solidify support for Barack Obama among former Hillary Clinton supporters, with the percent saying they will vote for Obama in November moving from 70% pre-convention to 81% after the convention, and the percent certain to vote for Obama jumping from 47% to 65%.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109957/Obama-Gains-Among-Former-Clinton-Supporters.aspx

And to pull it all together, Gallup have an overview article that sites turnout as the key factor:

Turnout will be a key factor. Obama would benefit from unusual (and unprecedented) enthusiasm among young voters and minority voters. McCain would benefit from a more typical higher turnout among Republicans, highly religious white voters. Results of likely voter modeling this summer so far have been mixed. Overall enthusiasm about voting, which was higher earlier this year, has dropped off, and has remained low even after the Democratic convention. Democrats did not gain enthusiasm as a result of their convention, but remain more enthusiastic than Republicans, suggesting a possible Democratic turnout edge.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109759/Gallups-Quick-Read-Election.aspx

EC at 124

A little birdie told me that our rebranded relaunch grows closer as we blog

3h 38 min. to go.
Just another step in the process.

128 Catrina The perfect way to get a fundie in charge. Get McCain elected, then bump him off.

# 132 Get well soon. The more contributors the better. Keeps the gray matter going.

Sarah Palin: Dan Quayle with an up-do.

When Sarah Palin’s family was introduced to the whole wide world the other day, I wondered why their oldest daughter, Bristol, looked so distressed. You may remember her – she was the one holding baby Trig. Was it because all the folks back home are wearing T-shirts saying “Alaska: The coolest state with the hottest governor”? Or was it because she knew the entire universe was about to find out that she, Bristol, is unwed and five months pregnant? Hey! That means she could be giving birth on Inauguration Day!

Too bad her pistol-packin’, diaper-totin’ mama couldn’t bear to say no to her country when it needs her – even if it meant sacrificing the privacy of her 17-year-old daughter to the global media machine.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080902.wwente02/BNStory/specialComment/home

Nice numbers on Rasmussen today – Obama over the 50 per cent mark. 🙂 The bounce looks to be just short of 6 per cent, which is a little lower than my prediction of 7, but still okay, given the Palin stuff.

Catrina at 108,

None of that. I’m the pessimist around here. No stealing my material, thank you very much.

http://clivecrook.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/09/the_palin_nomination.php

An article I very much agree with. It is questionable how useful politically the attacks on Palin will be. At the moment, they seem clumsy and patronising. While we on the left might get a good laugh out of this, it is possible that we are not seeing things in the same way as those on the right – or, more significantly, those in the centre.

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/09/02/the-case-against-the-case-against-palin.aspx

And this is another interesting piece. Sarah Palin should not be underestimated. She crushed the Republican Party old boys club in Alaska in a very short space of time. To rise as fast as she has, she must have something going for her.

Cat@128,

Listened to a snippet of an interview on Radio National this am about “The Family”(didn’t catch author) and how the religious right uses power, particularly through their ‘breakfast’ meetings.

For anyone interested in the AOG, suggest reading “The Late Great Planet Earth” to get into their mindset.
Those of us who lead rational,secular lives underestimate the power grabbing of this determined groundswell.

(Now its my turn to do a Gouldie 🙂 )

Andrew @138 and David Gould @141?

released from jaws of oblivion,i.e. spam.

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=N2EyM2Q2NjYxZmUxMzgxNTYwMjAwZDk3MmE2NGNmNjY=

More on the vetting issue. I think that the media is overreaching itself big time on this one. I think that this is causing Obama’s people a few headaches – they cannot control the media or the blogsphere, and they have yet to develop a coherent strategy on how to attack Palin (which is fair enough, given how unknown she is and how unexpected her pick was).

This argument from the Obama camp is a complete joke.

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09/02/obama-i-have-more-executive-experience-than-palin/

Whoever thought that that would be a good thing to push was having a bad day. They need to back of on Palin, think about it for a few days (while watching how she goes at the Republican convention, which should give them some more angles of attack and show them where not to attack) and then build some kind of focused approach. They are not helping themselves with this kind of nonsense.

The Gallup poll is out to a +8 margin to Obama, Obi has hit 50% for the first time. Palin may sure up the “I Hunt, I Vote” vote, but she has turned the narrative against McCain. Palain’s selection has made McCain look weak and turned his campaign into a sideshow. I told youse he was a surrender monkey.

This is the link to this morning’s Radio National program re “The Family”, “Elite Fundamentalism” and how it is deeply hostile to democracy.

A chilling reminder of a shadowy organisation and it’s influence via Billy Graham,etc.

Stephen Crittenden mentions this book as the most absorbing book he has read all year.

http://www.abc.net.au/rn/religionreport/stories/2008/2353921.htm

Bo-Bo, sorry to hear you’ve been crook. Great to see you back.

Gouldie, it’s up to the New Media to rip Palin apart and expose her as the grasping, provincial fundamentalist zealot that she is.
Obi has given a clear directive to Team Kid to lay off Sarah and her family. And quite rightly so. Very smart, when online mags and blogs can sink the ugg boot into Ice Station Zebra by “proxy”.

Her selection has contributed to Barry’s bump over 50% in the polls because most people recognise McCain’s choice as a tokenistic pander to fundies and good ol’ boys like Joe Six-Pak and Chuck Cracker. These folk are semiotic unsophisticates. They see vpilf and only vpilf, in the way evolution programmed them to respond when they figure there’s no reason to recruit their cerebral cortices into their decision making.
——————————

http://www.salon.com/comics/tomo/2008/09/02/tomo/

“Life happens,” said McCain adviser Steve Schmidt, talking about the pregnancy story.

Goddness me! How impressive. Schmuckens is a philosopher too.

[They need to back of on Palin, think about it for a few days]

I agree. The Obama campaign needs to be very careful when dealing with Palin. There is a risk that in criticising her too much, Obama will be seen as elitist against the ordinary “hockey mum”. There is also a risk that Palin will soak up too much attention, allowing McCain to escape scrutiny.

If I were on Obama’s campaign team, I would be urging him to avoid criticising Palin for now, letting the media do it instead, and keep the focus on McCain as much as possible.

By the way, the issue is not “experience” with regard to Palin but judgement, i.e., McCain’s judgement.

Excellent video summarising media comments on Palin’s inexperience…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYFkR8zYiBw

And former POW and classmate of McCain’s believes he’s not cut out to be president…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLWEDMLmjKk

EV,

It is speculation. What is being claimed is that vetting is a process of approaching public officials. Which public officials were approached in regard to the vetting of Romney? Sarah Palin was examined over many months, and was vetted to the same degree as the other five potential candidates in the final six.

Left-wing bloggers may get a noble feeling about ‘keeping Palin honest’ but that might not help Obama if – as they so often do, with many of them having a conspiracy theory mentality regarding the Republican Party – they stretch the truth themselves.

David, I’m surprised you suggest that good folk who doubt the purity of GOP intent are conspiracy theorists. You’re sounding more like William Kristol (he also worries incessantly about left wing bloggers) as this campaign gathers steam, which is a little puzzling because you’re a self-proclaimed Obi supporter and very firm on your prediction that Baz is gonna glom 298 ECVs.

Sarah Palin’s choice was the campaign moment when a maverick became a deperado and in view of today’s 8-9 point poll lead to Mistah Barry, the punters reckon so too.

166 David Gould. “Me, I’m an evidence, Occam’s razor, scientific method kind of guy.” Rubish. Everytime someone comes up with hard evidence here you dismiss it. 40 million viewers can’t be wrong.

Chris B,

I dismiss some of what you produce for good reason. I do not dismiss all of what you produce.

As to the 40 million viewers, what do you think that they are evidence for? My thinking is that they are evidence of increased interest in this particular presidential race.

However, is the fact that 40 million people watched Obama evidence that he is miles in front in the race? No.

Chris B, I’m sure David’s concern is quite sincere but let’s not lose focus. Eyes on the prize. 😉

Huge increase in new Democrat voters.
Huge increase in Black voters 95% for Obama
Increase in Latino voters 66% for Obama
Women voters 55% for Obama
Young voters hugely in favour of Obama, sorry can’t remember the figure.
Huge roll up at primaries. (Oh, I forgot, it doesn’t mean they will turn up to the national election). It’s obviously not as important as the primaries.
Everything Obama does he breaks records. (Oh, I forgot that doesn’t mean he will break the election records in November). It’s obviously not as important as everything else he does.
Massive amounts of money.
Huge swings in by elections. (They’re more important than the November election, I forgot).
Corruption.
Economy.
Bush’s incompetence.
McCains Incompetence.
Shall I go on?

There you are work on that list.

Logic tells me with that list, the polls can’t be right.
No one has ever one an election anywhere, unless it is rigged, with baggage similar to that.

I have worked on that list. The huge increase in new Democrat voters would be already being taken into account in the polling – both Gallup and Rasmussen undertake massive checks on those things.

The huge increase in numbers of voters in certain demographics would also be already showing up in the polls – indeed, polling is the only way that these numbers could have been obtained!

The huge roll up at the primaries would also be being taken into account in the polling. They ask for likely voters as one of the questions.

I cannot see how Obama breaking records is relevant. You have yet to lay out what that actually means.

The money thing is indeed a very good thing, as I have acknowledged many times previously.

Corruption, economy, Bush’s incompetence and McCain’s incompetence would already be factored into people’s opinions. Thus, it would already be factored into the polls.

Re the huge swings in by elections, Congressional races and Congressional polling are not that relevant to a presidential election. A party can win the presidency easily, but get smashed in the congressionals. (eg. Clinton, 1996).

Further, the particular candidates make a huge difference. While a white, gun-toting, gay-hating, pro-lifer wearing a Democratic tie can win the votes from a Republican opponent in a right-wing district in Mississipi, it is not too likely that someone like Obama will be able to do the same.

The only argument that is being made here that I can see is as follows:

1.) When the polls do not show Obama with a commanding lead, they must be wrong.

2.) When the polls show Obama with a commanding lead, they must be right.

It seems to me also that there is a general feeling of: “I feel this way about the election. Therefore, the vast majority of American voter must feel the same way.”

Remember: in two election, around 50 per cent of Americans voted for Bush. In Australia, Howard won four election and the Liberals got over 47 per cent of the 2PP at the last election. No matter how far to the right you think the world is, the world is far more right-wing than you think it is.

Chris B,

People do not vote logically.

“Further, the particular candidates make a huge difference. While a white, gun-toting, gay-hating, pro-lifer wearing a Democratic tie can win the votes from a Republican opponent in a right-wing district in Mississipi, it is not too likely that someone like Obama will be able to do the same.”

Using the Conservative Party in England who know where near as bad as this mob. That’s the only similar situation to this in recent times. Nothing made any difference they were all swept away.

Palin slashed funding for teen mums.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/09/02/palin_slashed_funding_to_help.html?hpid=artslot

Who said midterm elections do not count? I am talking about differences between a presidential election and congressional elections.

I also think that you have my argument a little confused. The Democratic candidate was a white, gun-toting, gay-hating, pro-lifer. That is why he was able to win in a right-wing district.

See, that’s exactly what we mean. You have ignored all the hard evidence. Dismissed it. I spite of what you said earlier.
So how many elections have thrown up a different leader from the party that wins everything else?

George Bush won’t lose an election. Major still carried around baggage from Thatcherism.

He lost me over Iraq, till then he was doing really well.

Chris B, DG – Settle down – we’ve got a fair way to go guys. There are no rules about these things – there are patterns and clues. There are a few “facts” and they can be less relevant over time. Things go well and things go wrong for each campaign. Who can believe that Obama wants to compare himself to Palin. Who can believe that Palin was anything but a kneejerk selection for whatever reason. All of the polls show up something but they have fair degrees of error and sometimes systemic error (eg dont have all candidates on list, dont have relevant information etc) and do not find it easy to locate certain voters (remember the shock when One Nation polled a million votes here – it certainly wasn’t that in the polls).

Wakefield at 193,

It is just a friendly discussion. 🙂

I agree that shocks can happen, and that the polls will fluctuate over time. But they are the information that we have to go on. It just seems silly to me that they are so often dismissed, when over time polling has actually proved itself to be pretty accurate. (The John Major election victory was actually one time when the polls failed big time to predict the result, incidentally).

Enemy Combatant at 196

Yes, please!

David Gould
177
Because of voluntary voting in the US, all pollsters can only poll registered voters – so the new people that Obama has attracted to the voting process are not being polled. Check out Guy Rundle’s comments on this matter on the Crikey homepage