With John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin for VP, one can only shake their head at how amateurish a decision this was. Palin’s stance on abortion will result in few Democratic women voters being willing to even listen to her, let alone changing their vote. Her age and lack of experience do major self-afflicted damage to the attacks on Obama and she is even involved in a scandal where the Alaskan State Commissioner of Public Safety was fired by her because the commissioner refused to fire a state trooper who had divorced her sister. Ultimately, this decision is very short sighted and the VP Debate now has all the makings of a massacre.
Meanwhile the Conventions continue. Obama’s speech, which received praise from all but the most biased of judges, now places McCain under a very powerful spotlight. If McCain does not produce a speech that is at least somewhat comparable to Obama’s, then his last chance to win the election by himself (as opposed to requiring Obama to make multiple huge gaffes) is most likely gone.
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653 replies on “Palin for VP and Two Speeches”
299 Fundies do not forgive.
Texas was not in my original picks. Starting to look a bit easier now.
I do not care what fundies do in that regard. However, I would also not paint with as broad a brush. I speak with a large number of American fundamentalists, and many of them are indeed forgiving.
As for Texas, the polls would have to undercooked by 10 points for that to be in play. So, unless Hispanics and Blacks are not answering the phone these days, I think that Texas is a very long shot indeed for Obama.
Only 10% increase in Black and a 10% Latino voters. It is not a long shot coming off a small base.
Chris B,
Why do you think that the polls are showing Obama nine points behind in Texas? Do you think that Blacks and Latinos in that state are not being called up?
If Black and Latino voters roll up the way they did in 2004 and vote as they did in 2006. Which is a very CONSERVATIVE estimate Texas is GONE.
306 David Gould I cannot answer for the polling companies. As I said if the turn up per #307 Texas is GONE.
306 David Gould The polling companies did not pick up the landslide by election earlier this year in Louisiana.
Chris B: I agree with you that if they turn up in those numbers then Texas will fall to Obama. The evidence, however, is that they will not turn up in anywhere near those numbers.
So they did in 2004 and won’t when the have a much bigger reason. Bull.
Chris B at 309,
Can you link me to any polling done in Louisiana prior to that by-election?
Chris B at 311,
Okay, Chris: I understand that you believe the polls are all completely wrong … unless they show Obama miles in front, of course. 😉
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2009687/posts
This is the only link I have currently, and the poll mentioned shows the Democrat in front by nine points.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0782f030-b12d-441d-814f-37ebb287477b
This poll before the Lousiania special election had the Democrat in front by nine.
The actual result was much closer, with the Democrat winning by three. So: the poll was indeed wrong in terms of margin. But it picked the result.
Two posts on Louisiana polling in spam bin. 🙁
David@315,
released.
David G when you have moment could you post a ref to the quote in your 258 please.
Thanks.
Chris B
http://www.google.com/search?sourceid=navclient&aq=t&ie=UTF-8&rls=PCTA,PCTA:2006-16,PCTA:en&q=national+enquirer+palin
Good, I accept that. Now are you going to tell me that with every reason in the world to vote for the first black president, they will not turn up in larger numbers than in 2004 and vote as they did in 2006?
Thanks Gaffhook.
The 7% he is in front at the moment, will take TEXAS.
DG, pointing out the hypocrisy of christian fundamentalists is not a lose-lose situation. It erodes the fundamentalists self-proclaimed moral authority and tells the people who find themselves at the sharp end of issues like teen pregnancy and the moralising of fundamentalists about contraception, that the moralisers themselves are unable to live up to the high standards that they judge others by.
Sure you may know a lot of fundies who are forgiving, the real issue is what right do they have to forgive anyone in the first place?
I say give the fundie mongrels both barrels and let them cry and holler all they like. They cause enough crying and hollering themselves. One thing the fundies don’t have to worry about is liberals in assassination plots, or bombing abstinence clinics.
Here you are, for your information. You can work it out roughly. If you are very conservative Texas falls.
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/specials/demographic_map/
While the National Enquirer may be out of commission for the moment, Google’s cache is not:
But there is nothing there about affairs of state.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109996/Gallup-Daily-Obama-49-McCain-43.aspx
For Dogb at 317.
Chris B at 319,
I do not go with how I feel. I go where the evidence is pointing.
I feel that hispanics and blacks should turn out in large numbers and vote for Obama.
However, the evidence is that they are not going to do so in large enough numbers in Texas.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109996/Gallup-Daily-Obama-49-McCain-43.aspx
DogB at 317,
I tired a couple of times, but it vanished. 🙂 Just go to the RealClearPolitics site, click on the national poll averages and then click on the Gallup link.
325 David Gould Why not? Why would they go backwards on 2004?
HusseinWorm at 322,
I think it is a lose-lose game because it simply becomes a ‘pointing out the other’s hypocrisy’ contest.
As Spock would say. “It’s illogical”.
Live blogging from the convention – Palin is up and doing her stuff.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/03/live-from-st-paul-palins-night/
Chris B at 327,
They are not going backwards. In 2004, Bush won Texas by a huge margin – 22 per cent or something like it. Obama has cut that margin to just 9 per cent.
I suspect that getting 10 per cent more people to turn out in a specific demographic is simply a lot harder than it sounds.
Chris B at 329,
And as Spock would also say, humans are indeed illogical.
Chris B,
Did you think it logical that Howard won in 1998, 2001 and 2004, or that Bush won in 2000 and 2004?
Gouldie, freed at 325 and 327.
Live C-Span.
http://www.c-span.org/Politics/
334 David Gould.
I wouldn’t say you are a pessimist, you put the other point of view too well.
DG 326
Found it. Thanks for that.
I’ve been misinformed. I was told that all pollsters avoid mobiles because the costs were too high.
DG @ 330, yes you are right about the hypocrisy contest. But that merely serves to drag the whole thing into irrelevance, and let’s everyone get on with life without thinking that one side is proclaiming itself right and the other side is meek in response.
Just watchin The Fences’ speech on C Span live and afraid she is not holding my attention like others.
Interesting to see four big burly bouncers throwing out a lady who must have read part of The Fences horoscope out loud.
Don’t really see the point in the argument anyway. There’s lots of fruit hanging lower than texas.
The fact that we’re even debating it is a damn good sign IMO.
Sarah’s live on C-span Politics, btw, boys.
I’m watching. 🙂
http://www.c-span.org/Politics/
#322
I can’t agree more. The hypocrisy does need to be pointed out. If Bristol Palin was Black and was Obama’s daughter, every Republican and his dog, including the fundies, would be out there screaming their lungs out about the lack of morals, not to mention playing the race card.
Now the same group are having to come face to face with the issue in their own camp. The dissonance this creates is a good dose of medicine for this lot, who have spent years trying to win elections by putting themselves up on moralistic pedestals.
Personally, I don’t like how these personal issues play into elections. At the end of the day, it is about the person who is elected, what they plan to do for the country, and whether they have the ability to execute that plan. The sooner this kind of nonsense goes the better.
But right now the Republicans need to have the mirror held up to their collective faces because of the way they have personalised politics for many years.
And McCain left himself wide open because he failed to fully scrutinise Palin. He seemed to have rushed what is a very important decision, which has now made him look weak and reckless. The media are having a field day, not because Palin is a woman and not because of an anti-Repug bias, but because McCain has left a trail of question marks about himself and the person he chose to be his running mate.
Why, David, you’re such a multi-tasker!:)
Everyone will be watching to see if she stumbles. I doubt it.
343 Enemy Combatant
And ain’t she a class act?
“I love those hockey moms. You know, they say the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull? Lipstick.”
Still, good to see the week taken up with her nomination and McCain’s judgement in picking this arctic hillbilly.
Peggy Noonan puts her foot in an open microphone and tells it like it is! LOL
Pretty clinical.
I guess i am a little biased but that really came across as though she did not want to be there.
She continually had to stop and look at notes etc and the raising and lowering of voice to suit each point did not cut.
The crowd all waved and cheered with about half the enthusiasm of the DNC crowd. Except for the lady that got the yellow card and was sin binned. LOL.
CNN commentatary team unanimous that Palin did a fantastic job. ‘She hit it out of the park.’ ‘Everyone who saw it will come away with a very favourable impression of Sarah Palin.’ And so on.
And I think that she did a very good job. As they said on CNN, you can see why she is a very popular governor. They also made the comment that McCain has found his attack dog.
Do not underestimate this woman, Democrats.
Cowboy Troy, they’ll have both kinds of music, Country & Western. Apologies to The Blues Brothers.
By the way, I am not as effusive about her speech as CNN. But she certainly hit a lot of powerful notes that appeal to exactly the kinds of voters that they want to target.
Good to see you giving the Republicans point of view for a change.
Lot’s of motherhood statements, very little substance. Masterfully coached and a valiant effort but the hail Mary pass is a long way from converted.
Wow! Cowboy Troy is comin’ up!!
“Hot Darn! Mebbe thar’ll be monster trucks ‘n’ all fer the kids an crackers.”
“Pardon me, folks while ah die and git mah ass on upto Six-Pak Heaven”
Stevie Ray Vaughn is a major improvement.
Stevie, btw, wouldn’t have pissed on these people if they were on fire.
I do feel kind of like Cassandra. 🙂
(Not that I am claiming to be as accurate as her.)
Yeah Kirri, they flog the lipstick to each other at Avon, Tupperware and Amway “parties”.
Delighted to see you’re catching the action.
357 Enemy Combatant That helicopter he died in was meant for JJ Cale, but don’t get me started.
Do you ever feel like playing dress-ups and looking like her too, David?
Palin’s speech was hardly rousing but with no errors and having ticked all the usual conservative boxes, it will be hailed as a success from most commentators.
What it does underscore, however, is the fact that McCain and Palin are emerging as deeply conservative. It will play well to the Republican base and the Christian fundamentalist and encourage them to get out and vote, but I’m not so sure whether they will capture the Independents needed to win the election.
Everyday seems like another step to the Right for McCain.
Noocat at 363
Good summary – I agree completely.
Spot on, Noocat. Without a majority of Indys, they’re rooted.
Crossed editors 🙂
Enemy Combatant,
I have the figure for it. Are you bringing the wooden spoon? 😉
As to Independents, the thing is that there are a big bunch of them who are left-wing on economics and right-wing on social issues. It is quite possible that they will be the ones who will decide this election (as they tend to do in Australian elections).
363 Noocat I agree, wholeheartedly. I didn’t expect anything else.
[As to Independents, the thing is that there are a big bunch of them who are left-wing on economics and right-wing on social issues.]
If that’s the case, then maybe an emerging economic recession in the US might take a higher priority than abortion this year.
Chris B – The Repubs no doubt had Palin practice the speech over and over. She had to get it right or they would have been in deep trouble. The true test will be the VP debate.
The polls over the next week are going to be very interesting – can’t wait!
Noocat at 370,
That certainly may well be the case – indeed, I think it will, which is why I think Obama will win Ohio.
David, wooden spoons, for people like you, as opposed to Non-Perverts, are but an aperitif.
Found this chappie lingering on the couch with intent.
http://www.cartoonstock.com/lowres/dre0801l.jpg
370 & 371, I agree again on both counts. Can’t wait for the polls. Even though they are baffling at the moment.
Chris B,
Why are you bothering to wait for the polls? You know that they will be wrong unless they show Obama 10 points in front.
Enemy Combatant,
But the wooden spoon makes it all seem so very naughty. 😉
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Initial thoughts:
Tonight, Sarah Palin lit a fire under the 30% Conservative vote
but
she also lit a bonfire under the 40% Democratic vote.
what about the 30% in the middle, you ask?
I don’t think they’re in the mood for more friggin fires and bonfires and divisiveness.
I just can’t see the avenue to the middle anymore for John McCain. He used to have an avenue, but i can’t see it anymore.
The wingnuts have declared war.
America is living in very interesting times.
further to my 378
i mean, tonight we had billionaire Mitt Romney and socially liberal Rudy Guilliani proudly make it unequivocally clear that the Republican Party is the Party of wingnuts and hicks.
amazing.
The whole Republican Party, in the last week, have openly and proudly declared war on intelligence.
This used to be unspoken.
stunning stuff
360 Enemy Combatant
Coming back from the dead thanks Ecky, and the greatest show on earth is good amusement.
Harry H
Instead of dogwhistling their ‘born again’ stuff, they’ve now got the dog up there barking it out to the masses.
You’re right, it’s an amazing shift to the loopy religious right, appealing to the same crew that castrated McCain a few years ago over his supposed ‘illegitimate ‘ child, and flocked to the gormless Bush like he was the saviour incarnate.
For an avowed ‘maverick’, it’s a pretty regressive step, and one that just might see him falling into the sticky tarpit of murky religious nutbaggery.
It might all seem shiny and slap-clappy-happy stuff at the moment, but you can almost feel the unraveling to come.
I found this via Daily Kos – Ben Stein, a Republican, talking about the choice of Palin as VP. Comedy gold, imo.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OevzQ9XGd7Q
KatieLou at 382
Love the line at the end …
Just been wandering the blogs and the reaction to Palin’s speech is looking pretty dire for the Repugs, and I’m not just talking about liberal blogs like Huff Post. Check out CNN for example – about 95% are expressing disappointment. A common impression is that Palin came across as nasty and whiny.
I watched her speech again (I’m a sucker for punishment!), and I kept thinking of Tracy Flick for those who know the movie “Election”. It’s that patronising, snidish, and amateurish tone of an over-achieving high school student campaigning to be school president. Despite what the commentators say, I doubt Palin has inspired much confidence in the folks of middle America.
So where to now for the GOP, I wonder?
Good analogy Noocat, but did you watch that movie through to the end? Don’t make me think about it. 😀
Don’t judge her speech from reactions on blogs. People who post on blogs are not the target of this speech.
I hope to Steve that the Obama people are not shrugging this off (and I bet that they are not). Her pick raised millions in a few days for the GOP. She has mobilised the base, which is not something that Obama’s camp wanted to happen. And she attacked Obama in a way that will appeal to some key small-town voters.
Michigan. Ohio. Virginia. Those are the three states that will decide this election. Obama has the advantage – he only needs to win one, while McCain needs to win all three. But Palin is someone who might be able to grab some votes in those three states.
I guess what I am trying to say is this: do not look at this speech through left-wing eyes.
HW – I did see it to the end. Thanks for that reminder….
DG – Of course the bloggers aren’t representative of the general public in many of their opinions. But when the same basic impressions – nastiness, amateurishness – come up again and again in the blogs, there is a good chance that many of the Mum’s and Dad’s at home will have had similar impressions.
Whether that is a vote-changer for all those Homer Simpsons out there, who knows?
Noocat,
Unfortunately, I disagree. These opinions of nastiness and amateurishness are basically left-wing opinions. They are coloured by bias, unintentionally but unavoidably.
One of the reasons why I think that the left has been outmanouvered again and again in the US – to the point, in fact, that the Democrats have to run gun-toting, bible-bashing, homo-hating, pro-lifers to win – is that they do not understand that left-wing is not mainstream.
Kevin Rudd won in Australia by running as a conservative. WorkChoices was the key issue – not global warming, not poor treatment of refugees, and not any other issue that the left is so concerned about. However, if Rudd had not been perceived as coming from the centre, he would not have been able to win. Remember: 47 per cent of Australians put Howard ahead of Rudd when they voted, even after all that crap.
Americans are even further to the right. They are ready to vote Democrat at this election because of the state of the economy and the terrible mismanagement by the Republicans.
And yet this election is still close. At the end of the day, well over 40 per cent of American voters will choose McCain – and probably very close to 48 per cent of them will. This with the Republicans hated.
That is coming from a true Republican point of view.
You don’t have to pretend any more David we all know.
And that would be perfectly fine,Chris.
We agree to disagree here,don’t we?
That’s fine Meagan, but why not call yourself one instead of pretending.
Interesting article by Joe Cinason about ” Why Bristol’s baby matters”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/09/why_bristols_baby_matters.html
By the way, aren’t bristols mammary glands? 🙂
How apt.
Chris B at 394
Umm – actually I agree with David – does that make me a Republican?
Chris,
Some of us can’t be pigeon-holed.
Yes, Chris, I am a Republican – one who has voted Green at every election from 1996 and preferenced Labor. Is there an eye-rolling smiley on this board?
It is bizarre that criticising left-wing tactics – when Howard one four elections in a row and George Bush won twice, for Pete’s sake – must mean I am not a true member of the left …
And I thought we were having a friendly discussion here, Chris.
By the way, I will confess that there is indeed one policy issue where I am out of step with the left: I supported the invasion of Iraq. (Not because of any stupid lies about weapons of mass destruction or links with terrorists, however.)
396 Catrina You actually agree with David on every point since he has been here?