Open Thread

The Senate: Democrat By How Much?

It has been clear for a long while now that the Democrats will increase their control of the US Senate, the question has always been by how much and can they reach the 60 votes required to win a vote on ‘cloture‘ and force though legislation. With several races in the bag and others that could go either way, I thought I would look at the races and state how likely it is that the Democrats will reach the magic number.

The Democrats currently control 51 seats in the 100 seat Senate. There are 35 senate elections occurring on November 4, 11 of which are considered competitive and 10 of those are currently held by the Republicans. The only Democratic seat in any danger is in Louisiana and is held by Mary Landrieu. The last poll conducted by a major polling organisation had her lead ballooning out to 53-37 on Aug 17, so she should now be safe.

The Republican seats that are almost certain to fall are Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia. Alaska is looking sure to fall as well, where Sen. Ted Stevens is not only likely to lose his seat, but is also at risk of crossing his Bridge only to discover that while Nowhere lacks basic amenities, it does have a jail cell. That gets the Democrats to 56.

The seats that are currently statistical ties are Minnesota and Oregon, with North Carolina’s last 3 polls being 48-42 Rep, 35-35 Tie and 51-45 Dem for a average of 42.67 each. In Mississippi Republican Roger Wicker has held a lead of about 48-43 for a couple of months while in Maine, Susan Collins looks sure to retain her seat.

Taking the optimistic view that the economic situation will help the Democrats, it therefore leaves the Senate line-ball on either 59 or 60. A more reserved outlook however would put the Democrats on 56.

There is also the question of Joe Lieberman. If the Senate becomes 56-44, there is a chance that he would be thrown out of the party. However if the result is 59-60 then the need to ensure his vote will see him remain. Lieberman will not leave himself, as that would lose him his positions on committees, including 3 chairmanships. The Democrat numbers also include Independent Socialist Bernie Sanders from Vermont, but there is not question that he will continue to causus with the Democrats.

By GhostWhoVotes

An Australian political observer.

857 replies on “The Senate: Democrat By How Much?”

have recently reaccessed how I think the senate is going to go. I have upped my number now to 66, that includes seats I had previously ruled out.

South Carolina
as well as North Carolina Oregon New Hampshire Colorado.
Any seat within 15% is fair game 20% is a stretch.
They are Kansas and Oklahoma.

Good ol’ Bill Kristol. At least some things in life are predictable:

“McCain’s impetuous decision to return to Washington was right. The agreement announced early Sunday morning is better than Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s original proposal, and better than the deal the Democrats claimed was close on Thursday. Assuming the legislation passes soon, and assuming it reassures financial markets, McCain will be able to take some credit.”

(From the NYT)
Don’t laugh too loud you lot

And did you know that McCain ‘controlled the agenda of the debate”? No? Well Jay Cost think so:

“So, putting aside the polls, I think it was politically beneficial for McCain to control the agenda of the debate. I think that meant he advanced his message more effectively than Obama. If McCain can manage the agenda of the next two debates as well (a big if), the final effect could be quite helpful to him. It will keep the conversation on subjects he prefers – especially useful for when we shift to domestic issues, which broadly favor Democrats this year. Also, it might give the impression that McCain is in charge of the discussion. That would enhance his “doer-not-a-talker” image, which would be good for him. ”

Now ya know.

I have posted this I am not sure what happened.

I have recently reassessed how I think the senate is going to go. I have upped my number now to 66, that includes seats I had previously ruled out.

South Carolina
as well as North Carolina Oregon New Hampshire Colorado.
Any seat within 15% is fair game 20% is a stretch.
They are Kansas and Oklahoma.

I have recently reassessed how I think the senate is going to go. I have upped my number now to 66, that includes seats I had previously ruled out.

South Carolina
as well as North Carolina Oregon New Hampshire Colorado.
Any seat within 15% is fair game 20% is a stretch.
They are Kansas and Oklahoma.

Yes it’s working.

It’s a Republican plot Chris. They clearly have you earmarked as an enemy of the Right whose every utterance must be stopped, stifled, erased, obfuscated or otherwise rendered silent.

C’mon Chris! The Amigos have a hard time putting a sentence together (I still chuckle at KR’s description of the Random Word Generator). They’re not up to masterminding an insidious right-wing plot. Relax.

Of course he’s a wanker, Chris. How else would he get the job as one of RCP’s chief writers?!

Not much to argue with there, Ghost, great summary. Think it’s only fair to mention that your post was submitted 5 days back, before a friend of ours began her journey somewhere south of the Rio Grande.

Here’s an update from Nate:)

Ferny, I share your finely calibrated contempt for for William Kristol. He is a greed-addled neoconservative zealot and PNAC pointman du jour. Will be paying special attention to his reactions on E-Day.

Who is Jay Cost?”

He is the son of Pie Cost, Chris.

The entire USA has been turned into a giant, continental thunderbox – courtesy of that monumental balls-up and perpetual waste of skin and oxygen, GWBush.
So after the presidential battle is fought and won, the winner will be handed his prize – a massive, putrid, leaky shite receptical.
Nice prize. Congrats.

Alaska is looking sure to fall as well, where Sen. Ted Stevens is not only likely to lose his seat, but is also at risk of crossing his Bridge only to discover that while Nowhere lacks basic amenities, it does have a jail cell. That gets the Democrats to 56.

Casper, while we all no doubt would like to see Lord of the Ring ins Ted Stevens preferably on the inside looking out, while he picks rope, it is by no means a fait-accompli that he would automatically lose his senate Position should he be fortunate enough to win on Nov 4th.
He can remain in the senate if he so desires and can be removed (expelled) only by a vote of two thirds majority of the house even though he may be convicted of corruption in the courts. If it meant the Repugs would lose the filibuster control mechanism they would most likely vote against his expulsion.
Only four Senate members have been convicted of crimes since 1789.
At this point he may not be the number 56 slot.
Makes you wonder that the US government for nearly 220 years has virtually been “crime free” LOL with only four convictions.
I think there are a few Alaskan State Senators pickin rope though and a few more may join them.

Some interesting facts here:

Since 1789, the Senate has expelled only fifteen of its entire membership. Of that number, fourteen were charged with support of the Confederacy during the Civil War. In several other cases, the Senate considered expulsion proceedings but either found the member not guilty or failed to act before the member left office. In those cases, corruption was the primary cause of complaint.

In the entire course of the Senate’s history, only four members have been convicted of crimes. They were: Joseph R. Burton (1905), John Hipple Mitchell (1905), Truman H. Newberry (1920), and Harrison Williams (1981). Newberry’s conviction was later overturned. Mitchell died. Burton, Newberry, and Williams resigned before the Senate could act on their expulsion.

Ferny Grover
I suppose one could say there are good lawyers and useless lawyers depending what side you are on with that sort of conviction rate.

The whole lot of them could hide behind a corkscrew!

Everyone else here might not be as worldly as you and I, so seize the opportunity with that joke and run.

And if The Kid wins K07 will be able to give him some first hand advice since he has already had 10 months experience at recycling lipstick pig shit.

McCain tells ‘Dispatch’ that bailout is emergency measure ‘to stop bleeding’.

Along with Sen. Barack Obama, Sen. John McCain has embraced a $700 billion bailout of the nation’s troubled financial industry.

In a telephone interview with The Dispatch from Washington yesterday, McCain said that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke convinced him that the rescue plan is necessary.

“I’m sure everybody understands that this was something that just had to be done,” McCain said. “I’m kind of sorry in a way, but the tone of voice that Bernanke and Paulson used about this crisis, I’ve never heard anything like it in the years that I’ve been in public office, or alive.”

And this is from a Conservative (Kathleen Parker on NAtionalReview):

“If BS were currency, Palin could bail out Wall Street herself.

If Palin were a man, we’d all be guffawing, just as we do every time Joe Biden tickles the back of his throat with his toes. But because she’s a woman — and the first ever on a Republican presidential ticket — we are reluctant to say what is painfully true.

What to do?

McCain can’t repudiate his choice for running mate. He not only risks the wrath of the GOP’s unforgiving base, but he invites others to second-guess his executive decision-making ability. Barack Obama faces the same problem with Biden.

Only Palin can save McCain, her party, and the country she loves. She can bow out for personal reasons, perhaps because she wants to spend more time with her newborn. No one would criticize a mother who puts her family first.

Do it for your country. “

Have not heard from you for a couple of days hope everything is ok.
Hope you are not missing all the action since you brought it so succinctly before our eyes.
Meanwhile the Bailout cancerous groth has slipped across the chanel and is worming its’ way into the Euros:

BRUSSELS, Belgium – Dutch-Belgian bank and insurance giant Fortis NV was given a 11.2 billion euro ($16.4 billion) lifeline to avert insolvency as part of a wider bailout plan agreed to by Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg, officials said Sunday.

Belgium’s Prime Minister Yves Leterme said the bailout shows account holders and investors that Fortis will not be allowed to fall victim to the global credit crisis.

Hey Gaffy. Who could hide behind a corkscrew? Lawyers? We’re a saintly crew, y’know. There are around 10,000 of us in Qld (and that’s not counting the government ones). It would have to be a damn big corkscrew.

The Giant Corkscrew – I sense a new tourist attraction on the way. A wine drinkers paradise.

Some more Kathleen Parker. It’s just too good to keep to myself:

“Palin’s recent interviews with Charles Gibson, Sean Hannity, and now Katie Couric have all revealed an attractive, earnest, confident candidate. Who Is Clearly Out Of Her League.

No one hates saying that more than I do. Like so many women, I’ve been pulling for Palin, wishing her the best, hoping she will perform brilliantly. I’ve also noticed that I watch her interviews with the held breath of an anxious parent, my finger poised over the mute button in case it gets too painful. Unfortunately, it often does. My cringe reflex is exhausted.

Palin filibusters. She repeats words, filling space with deadwood. Cut the verbiage and there’s not much content there. Here’s but one example of many from her interview with Hannity: “Well, there is a danger in allowing some obsessive partisanship to get into the issue that we’re talking about today. And that’s something that John McCain, too, his track record, proving that he can work both sides of the aisle, he can surpass the partisanship that must be surpassed to deal with an issue like this.”

When Couric pointed to polls showing that the financial crisis had boosted Obama’s numbers, Palin blustered wordily: “I’m not looking at poll numbers. What I think Americans at the end of the day are going to be able to go back and look at track records and see who’s more apt to be talking about solutions and wishing for and hoping for solutions for some opportunity to change, and who’s actually done it?”

I see Ferny mentioned William Kristol to kick off this new thread.

I have just been perusing the efforts of Oz’s very own Kristol of this election, Herr Dokter.

He is of the opinion that Caribou Barbie is doing a sterling job with the swing voters in Michigan and Penn, and has those states on the verge of swinging to McGambler.

As a backup plan he has New Hampshire and Virginia getting McGambler over the line.

When pointed out that even then OilyBama would be 369/369 with NM,IA and CO and would win through a House vote ,Herr Kristol all but whined that *we can’t discount a Bradley Effect in a House vote.

Oh, and he should be up by 20%. What’s wrong with OilyBama? Why isn’t he up by more? Is he inferior or something?

Oh where oh where has his Hillary gone.

Appalachians aren’t the only clingy ones.

* slight artistic licence lol

EC at 1272

just had a peek and it’s in the works and ready to roll. Cat hasn’t been about for a bit. Travelling I guess. If Boss Blogstress hasn’t surfaced by tomorrow(will try emailing her as well) then Uncle Ecky will attempt to push the right buttons to publish your timely essay as a new thread.

Have just closed of the previous thread, and add a link and attribution to the current thread. No need to wait around for me – your doing brilliant all by yourself!


Thankfully Kristol and Cost are the Shanahans and Akermans of the US media. Out of touch desparate conservatives that can spin anything their side’s way. No one is listening

My sense of it though that the MSM are not as enamoured with McCain as ours was with Howard, and our economy was in much better shape than theirs, which spells doom for McCain

Obama Remains Ahead Nationally

All the National tracking polls still have Obama ahead. The polls include both pre- and post-debate polling. Later in the week we will have polls done entirely after the debates. Currently the polls are Gallup (Obama +8), Rasmussen (Obama +6), Diageo (Obama +5), and Research 2000 (Obama +7).


One week ago I wrote Kentucky senate seat off. Now it is tied 41% each. WOW!

This is why I have change my view on winnable senate seats. That is the second poll in a row on Kentucky.

Also a big piece on the Supreme Court Vacancies Likely in Next Four Years.

Recommended reading.

I wouldn’t write off Jay Cost.

I remember he wrote quite a few good articles during the Obama/Clinton Democratic primary.

He is unbiased as far as I can tell.

Chris B at 43

There is nothing in the spam or moderation queues.

P.S. 02 October2008 (Friday our time): Vice Presidential Debate, Washington University in St. Louis, MO (moderation by Gwen Ifill, PBS) — Joe Biden and Sarah Palin – the must watch event of the century.

This article is eerily reminiscent of the Australian election.
The only thing missing is the honeymoon period.

[‘Five weeks is five weeks in politics. Conspiracy theorists believe the Republicans are sitting on an “October surprise” – some incredibly damning bit of information from Mr. Obama’s past that GOP strategists are keeping under wraps until the final weeks of the campaign.’]

Didn’t work for Howard, doubt it will work for McCain.

Chris @ 44

I love this quote about the Kentucky poll:

“It is probably an outlier.”

LOL. We shall see.

I love the numbers …

• Gallup: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 49%-44%.
• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 47%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.2% margin of error, compared to a 48%-43% Obama lead yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, with a ±3% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 49%-43%.

Feeling much more comfortable now.


Ferny Grover Says:
September 29th, 2008 at 8:48 pm
The entire USA has been turned into a giant, continental thunderbox – courtesy of that monumental balls-up and perpetual waste of skin and oxygen, GWBush.
So after the presidential battle is fought and won, the winner will be handed his prize – a massive, putrid, leaky shite receptical.
Nice prize. Congrats.

Love the allusion. God forbid anyone light a match …….

To the predictions. Sorry Chris but your optimism does tend to venture into projection into what you wish to eventuate rather than realistic outcomes.

My calls (working on the assumptions that Sanders & Rebbe Liebermann will toe the line):

Virginia: over the line
New Mexico: highly likely
Colorado: will be close but rather be in Udall’s shoes. favour DEM
New Hampshire: like the Pres result here, far from in the bag. polling has been erratic. a good chance for the DEM’s but would hold off ordering the champers.
Alaska: DEM ahead but Alaska has tended to be “tiger country” for the DEM’s notwithstanding the endemic corruption of the joint. Definite chances both here and with the House seat but not one you can mark with any certainty.
Oregon: a 50/50% call. Oregon has tended to go DEM in Pres poll due to their dominance in the coastal regions but this state has a long history of support for moderate GOP Senators. Should a landslide eventuate, it’s most definitely curtains for Smith who is facing a knife-edge battle as it is. A landslide IS possible but NOT a clear probablility ATM. DEM candidate not the strongest.
North Carolina: similar kind of odds to OR. Dole has the benefits of this being a generally RED state (albeit trending purple) but also the baggage of being a rather lacklustre “absentee landlord”. This certainly MIGHT switch but not one to call with any certainty.
Minnesota: will most likely be deadly close but at this stage, I favour Coleman to hold on. Franken has a name recognition factor but not necessarily as a positive. Tax avoidance issues haven’t helped him and the Independent polling mid single figures may cut more into his vote than Coleman’s.

From hereon, you are getting into the realm of hope and optimism.

Mississippi 2: will most likely be close but favour GOP. DEM candidate Musgrove a former Gov but that can serve to rake up shit from his term of office. The large black vote (if mobilised) could well make it close but will not be sufficient to swing the state in either this or Pres race without a reasonable shift in the white vote.
Kentucky: not sure if the recent poll quoted is an outlier or evidence of something more substantial. May be worth watching but at this stage more a hope than realistic.
Maine: NO. Collins will hold comfortably and along with fellow Maine GOP Sen Snowe, may well be as reliable in support for an Obama agenda as some DEM’s.
Tennessee: Pipedream.
Georgia: Saxby Chambliss is unmitigated lowlide scum and it would be a great pleasure to see his disgusting carcass removed from the Senate but, the GA electorate being what it is, he is likely to survive albeit with some singed tailfeathers.
South Carolina: Lindsay Graham fairly safe. This state’s economy & demographics have not seen the changes evident in some of her near neighbours and therefore it is unlikely it will change political hue in the near future.
Texas: Nup. Whilst mobilisation of the Latino vote may well see the GOP margin in both the Pres poll & Senate contest shaved, it will be insufficient. Cornyn may be a “sock” for the Bush partisans but the average white Texan failed the enterance exam for 2nd grade ….. and yet are allowed to vote.
Kansas & Oklahoma: Hell will freeze over …. No sign of any changes in either electorate.

My summation is mid 50’s likely; high 50’s quite possible; 60 very optimistic but plausible …… anything above extraordinarily unlikely.

dirkprovin at 51

On the subject of Kansas & Oklahoma you said:

Hell will freeze over ….

A University of Washington chemistry mid-term student is reported as asserting the following:

First, we need to know how the mass of Hell is changing in time.
So we need to know the rate that souls are moving into Hell and the rate they are leaving.

I think that we can safely assume that once a soul gets to Hell, it will not leave.
Therefore, no souls are leaving.

As for how many souls are entering Hell, lets look at the different religions that exist in the world today. Some of these religions state that if you are not a member of their religion, you will go to Hell.

Since there are more than one of these religions and since people do not belong to more than one religion, we can project that all souls go to Hell.

With birth and death rates as they are we can expect the number of souls in Hell to increase exponentially.

Now, we look at the rate of change of the volume in Hell because Boyle’s Law states that in order for the temperature and pressure in Hell to stay the same, the volume of Hell has to expand proportionately as souls are added.

This gives two possibilities:

1. If Hell is expanding at a slower rate than the rate at which souls enter Hell, then the temperature and pressure in Hell will increase until all Hell breaks loose.

2. Of course, if Hell is expanding at a rate faster than the increase of souls in Hell, then the temperature and pressure will drop until Hell freezes over.

So which is it? If we accept the postulate given to me by Ms. Teresa Banyan during my freshman year,

“…that it will be a cold day in Hell before I sleep with you.”

And take into account the fact that I still have not succeeded in having sexual relations with her, then, #2 cannot be true, and thus I am sure that Hell is exothermic and will not freeze.

Therefore – I assume that Kansas & Oklahoma are safe for the Republicans.

Catrina @ 52

As logical as it sounds, one would think you’ve been possessed by the Sarah Palin Incoherent Answering Spirit with that kinda response…

Than again, logic and Sarah Palin are two very mutually exclusive concepts.

Schmuckens will be racing to the press to clear things up for us no doubt:

“Earlier in the week, when Senator McCain came back to Washington, there had been no deal reached. … What Senator McCain was able to do was to help bring all the parties to the table, including the House Republicans.” — Senior adviser Steve Schmidt, 9/28/08

If the McCain campaign was willing to take credit for the success of the bill, does McCain also deserve credit for its failure?



Dow undergoes biggest one-day points fall evah!!
Perhaps the American way of life will have to be compromised afterall.
How’s this gonna play in the “election cycle”?
Well, lets put it this way…..

One of the candidates has bailed out of a warplane after it has “taken a hit” over enemy territory. Combat dressed, his ‘chute plouffes open floating him ever earthward. His Y-fronts are twisted half way up his bum crack, so the candidate attempts to “adjust his dress”, but in so doing inadvertently removes the pin from one of his grenades. To his dismay, the candidate discovers that he can not remove the grenade from his belt.

Time slows down……


Pink mist, like mercy, droppeth like the gentle rain from heaven upon the ground below.

I forget which politician it was who said of an opponent’s speech…
“he said much that was original and much that was true.. unfortunately, what was true was not original,and what was original was not true”
I am reminded of this every day by McCain, and his blaming Obama for the failure of something which McCain had proudly claimed as all his own work simply beggars the imagination.
Does anyone know the sympoms of senility (to give it its old fashioned name)? Or is this merely cognitive dissonance?

“Trailers for sale or rent,
Rooms to let—50 cents….”

GOP-disenfranchised OHIO voters will now have their votes counted as “voter-gaming” is gazumped in Buckeye State. Gaming non GOPper voters is a Turd Blossom Special(ty) picked up on by his protegee, Steve “Schmuckens” Schmidt.
Btw, there’s no love lost between Axelrod and Schmidt if anyone caught them on the Sunday Network talkies. It’s not so much a matter of them hating each others guts.
Their rivalry goes way beyond that.
Some obsevers are even suggesting that it’s personal:)


Columbus, Ohio – State and federal courts cleared the way Monday for a weeklong period in which new voters can register and cast an absentee ballot on the same day in Ohio, a defeat for Republicans who challenged it…….

The Republicans’ cynical 11th-hour ploy to disenfranchise Ohio voters has been soundly rejected in federal court,” Ohio Democratic Party Chairman Chris Redfern said.
Early voting advocates are targeting college students, the homeless, the poor and minorities — voters who have traditionally had a hard time getting to the polls.
Obama’s campaign planned to organize carpools from college campuses around the state to local polling places. And the Northeast Ohio Coalition for the Homeless hoped to transport 2,000 homeless individuals from shelters to polling places in the Cleveland area.;_ylt=AmBvEtaXbaeDfvB19zrH3j.s0NUE

And The Kid is 9 points up on nationwide on Gallup and Kos (which some of us here keep reiterating they don’t trust). Only a “Reichstag Fire” could possibly save McGOPper butt at this late stage, and even that would be no guarantee for a Party led by a gambler and a warmonger who has for far too long wagered other peoples’ money and other peoples’ lives.

Gallup has Obama retaining a 50-42 lead over McCain nationally. Rasmussen has Obama’s lead at 50-45.

Recent Rasmussen state polls:
PA: 50-42 Obama
FL: 47-47
CO: 49-48 Obama
OH: 48-47 McCain
VA: 50-47 Obama

SurveyUSA also did FL and has McCain ahead 48-47.

This is exciting stuff folks!


“Trailers for sale or rent,
Rooms to let—50 cents….”

That fits in perfectly with The NSPD51 scenario.
The imbecile can declare a state of emergency and be the dictator because the rents are too high.

So….the Repugs (including those from McCain’s state of Arizona) reject the bail-out plan….

….and it’s Obama’s fault.

Does this mean that McCain believes the GOP are following Obama’s lead rather than his??

Or is it maybe just another desperate knee-jerk from a dying campaign.

49 OzFrog How’s this for timing?

Private Poll Confirms McConnell in Tough Race
With news over the weekend that polls show Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) in a much closer than expected race for re-election, the Rothenberg Political Report has seen a private poll — not yet released — which confirms the dead heat.

I’m sure I saw another one somewhere as well.


Nice work from Mr Ghost. I really did not know about the cloture thing until now.

I heard an extract from Nacy Pelosi’s speech – the speech the Republicans are saying was too partisan, so it turned 20 or so Republicans from yay to nay on the bailout bill. She basically said that the bill was required because of the failure of the Bush administration over the past 8 years. Dah. The Republicans’ excuses as to why they didn’t have the numbers are total b.s. And I heard a Republican blame Obama because he didn’t manage to bring more Democrats to vote yes. They’re absolutely pathetic. 40% of the Dems voted no. Two thirds of the Republicans voted no – so, following the logic of the Republicans against Obama, McCain failed to get enough Republicans on side.

It seems to me there’s an own goal from the Republican every single day (maybe every hour).

Obama takes lead, Hagan expands it in NC.

With concern about the economy even higher than it was the week
before, Barack Obama has taken a small lead in North Carolina, the newest survey from
Public Policy Polling finds.
Obama leads John McCain 47-45. Last week the two were tied. In the previous survey
the economic polled as the biggest issue for 58% of North Carolinians, a new record.
This week that figure increased to 64%. Obama has a 55-38 advantage with voters who
name the economy as their top concern.

The only places Obama is not taking over is Florida and Ohio. Strange. You would think they would be the first to go.

House websites slowed by e-mails on bailout bill.

Public interest and concern over the bailout bill has caused a significant slowdown on the website of the House of Representatives.

E-mail traffic in recent days has increased in volume by three or four times the normal rate, according to Jeff Ventura, a spokesman for the Office of the Chief Administrative Officer.

While i was pretty quick out of the gates at 54/55 i have been thinking about what effect this Bill vote scenario will have on Chucky six pack.
It appears that there is a swell of opposition to the bailout by six pack and the Dems were a majority for with the GOP a majority against.
Some one enlighten me will this change a voters attitude as to how they will now vote.
If they were going to vote Dem and did not want the bailout passed will they now switch their vote to the GOP because they knocked it over?
Then again would those six packs that wanted it passed who vote GOP have the reverse effect?
Ie Peter pays Paul and the banker gets F-all, no net gain either way.

Numbers: Yea Nay
Democratic 141 94
Republican 66 132
totals 207 226

Calls to Capitol Hill are reported to be 30 to 1 opposed to legislation that bails out the rogue Wall Street investors. Public opinion polling has shown a majority opposed to the legislation, unless the question contains the unproven assumption that the economy will collapse in a few days without a bill. In a remarkable show of opposition to the bill, 1,200 marched down Wall Street Friday. There were also protests in Chicago and Ohio plus more planned for Monday, Sept. 29.

There are opinions that Wall Street can bail itself out without destroying the dollar and indebting the Joe Sixpacks.

A very good day for Obama in the tracking polls, increasing by an average of 1.5. (this is on my estimates of the changes in daily numbers). This indicates that I was very wrong about the debate, and that McCain was seen to lose. My predictions from yesterday failed, because I did not expect Gallup in particular to have such a good day for Obama yesterday – I expected it to come back to the average.

The Florida Rasmussen poll is the best news, however. On the basis of current polling, Obama should get between 320 and 330 electoral votes.

Obviously Sarah Palin needs to skip Thursday’s debate so she can go to Washington and negotiate a deal.

Hope Sarah remembers to take lots of lippy.

Thurs Sept 26: (Reprise);_ylt=AhxtST6cjvvni_uDn2D71Lgl6ysC

Mon Sept 29:;_ylt=AkEQQWGVSQARqJ.XbbebwJQl6ysC

Mon Sept 29:;_ylt=AhxtST6cjvvni_uDn2D71Lgl6ysC

Sat Sept 27:;_ylt=A0WTUeXFZuFI6MYARQ4DwLAF

The Universe that Bomb-Bomb is saving on our behalf:

Sat Sept 27: (Reprise);_ylt=A0WTUeXFZuFI6MYASA4DwLAF


Sun Sept 28: “Tomorrow be-longs, tomorrow be-longs, tomorrow belongs to me…”;_ylt=A0WTUeXFZuFI6MYARw4DwLAF


Enemy Combatant,

Not really. They had the last one, and it was +4 for Obama, and the latest one is +5 for Obama so I cannot really see a political reason for excluding it. I was wondering if there was perhaps some methodological reason.


……Party led by a gambler……..

This is a very good article on the subject and tells how the “Gambler he broke even” on the two persons who were alleged to have undermined his 2000 primary race.

The senator declared he would not investigate members of Congress, whom Mr. Abramoff had lavished with tribal donations and golf outings to Scotland. But in the course of the investigation, the committee exposed Mr. Abramoff’s dealings with the two men who had helped defeat Mr. McCain in the 2000 primary.

Senator John McCain was on a roll. In a room reserved for high-stakes gamblers at the Foxwoods Resort Casino in Connecticut, he tossed $100 chips around a hot craps table. When the marathon session ended around 2:30 a.m., the Arizona senator and his entourage emerged with thousands of dollars in winnings.

Where’s that bloody FDR when his country needs him? I mean, a little thing like being dead shouldn’t stop him rising to the occasion of his nation’s greatest peril since The Great Depression!
Where’s his commitment!
Somebody get that Jonathan Edwards guy to get in touch with him pronto!

Analysis: Barack Obama bolsters readiness claim.

Barack Obama’s calmly assured response to the economic crisis and solid debate performance have bolstered the view among voters that he is ready to be chief executive, a crucial threshold he needs to cross to win the presidency.

The improved standing for Obama, a candidate still not well-known, was captured by polling this weekend, in interviews with Democrats and Republicans and by the response of his rival, John McCain, who intensified his criticism that the young senator lacks the experience and judgment to lead the nation.

Sweet Jeezus! Look at Intrade. It was bad for McCain yesterday. Now it’s just plain hellish:

Obama: 62.2; McCain 37.4

A moment’s silence please. I believe a campaign just died.

76 – Gaffhook

Maybe McCain’s economic policy is to go double or nothing at the casino with $700 billion. 🙂

State, federal courts uphold early voting in Ohio.

State and federal courts cleared the way Monday for a weeklong period in which new voters can register and cast an absentee ballot on the same day in Ohio, a defeat for Republicans who challenged it.

The early voting window, which begins Tuesday, became a partisan battle in this swing state where President Bush narrowly clinched re-election in 2004.

The court decisions were a victory for Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, a Democrat who was criticized by Republicans for telling county election boards to allow same-day registration and voting through Oct. 6.

“This ruling is a victory for all Ohio voters,” Brunner said in a statement. “It should send a message to the forces of confusion and chaos that our top goal must be protecting Ohioans’ voting rights.”

Zogby, however, doesn’t think the race will be a photo-finish at the wire.

“I do believe, in the final analysis, the model for this election is 1980,” Zogby tells Newsmax. “That is when Reagan defeated Carter in a landslide. That, too, was close until the weekend. I think over the weekend prior to November 4th, this election is going to break one way or another, very big,” he said.

Australia votes for Obama:
According to umrresearch results just released (I’d give you the link but I’ll be binned for it):

Obama: 66%
McCain 13%

Key findings:
If the US presidential election were held in Australia Barack Obama would emerge as the clear winner: 66% (up 7% since February) would prefer to see him as the next US president whilst only 13% (down 3% since February) prefer John McCain
• Younger Australians, women and Labor voters are even more enthusiastic about Barack Obama
• Expectations also favour the Democratic candidate: About 3 in 5 Australians expect Barack Obama to win the US presidential election, compared to 1 in 5 who think that John McCain will win
• US Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama is seen favourably by 4 in 5 Australians but only 1 in 5 have a positive opinion of John McCain
• McCain’s running mate Sarah Palin is quite unpopular with Australian voters with only 18% feeling positive about her (47% negative). She is particularly unpopular with older Australians.
• Democratic vice-presidential candidate Joe Biden doesn’t do much better: 15% have a positive opinion of him, 19% have a negative opinion and 30% of Australians haven’t even heard of him yet
• Only 1 in 10 Australians feel positive about the current US President George W. Bush whereas 4 in 10 feel positive about former president Bill Clinton and senator Hillary Clinton

What a day. Our stock market has taken a big hit as well, but not surprisingly. McCain has just about had it now. In the past couple of days, his campaign has been giving McCain credit for pulling the Republicans together to vote for the bailout plan, and now they’ve fallen apart. It is nothing other than a flat out demonstration of McCain’s impotence as a leader and his dishonesty in trying to appear as one. I think Americans will increasingly arrive at the conclusion that McCain’s avowed “maverickness” is actually recklessness and therefore a bigger risk to take than voting in a Black man.

Meanwhile, Fox News is still trying to spin McCain as a hero and Palin as an innocent victim of liberal-led sexism and evilness. They’re working their butts off trying to get the pair elected, but against the backdrop of the financial crisis, it’s all becoming so surreal and increasingly disconnected from reality. What a joke.

If the American people do not want this bailout to proceed – and it appears that they do not – won’t the failure of this bill benefit those who voted against it?

It is possible that Republicans and Democrats who voted against the bill will gain some political advantage from its failure. As more Republicans voted against it than Democrats, more Republicans might benefit.

I cannot see this helping McCain, given that he supports the bailout and so looks bad both ways – supporting an unpopular policy and then failing to deliver it – but it might help some other Republicans.

Ecky….you ol’ Cattletick, you.

But no matter what lingo you use – I doubt there will be much resting in peace for McFumble – or anyone else in Uncle Sam for that matter.

Of course, if another bill is worked out this week or next week, that could again change the equation. But even if the next bill passes, it may only do so with some more Democrats coming on board.

Then we would be in the bizarre position of the Democrats trying to sell the bailout as a good thing and the Republicans arguing that it is not – with Bush on the side of the Democrats. And is that a particularly good association for Democrats? 😉

Weird world indeed.

DG @ 88

And to think that this all would not have happened if McCain had valiantly decided to “suspend his campaign” and trot off to Washington when a deal had *already* been arranged in the House!

Yeah… McCain’s a dumbass.

Indeed, Nooc, surreal is an excellent word to describe Wall Street’s current fiscal cognitive dissonance.
Ta for the synaptic connect.

I’d sell your heart to the junkman baby
For a buck, for a buck
If you’re looking for someone
To pull you out of that ditch
You’re out of luck, you’re out of luck

The ship is sinking
The ship is sinking
The ship is sinking
There’s leak, there’s leak,
In the boiler room
The poor, the lame, the blind
Who are the ones that we kept in charge?
Killers, thieves, and lawyers

God’s away, God’s away,
God’s away on Business. Business.
God’s away, God’s away,
God’s away on Business. Business.

Tom Waits (for no man, nor no market.)

David sez…”If the American people do not want this bailout to proceed – and it appears that they do not – won’t the failure of this bill benefit those who voted against it?”

Bingo, Gouldie! Have you checked out the Congressional appproval percentags on RCP(left column homepage, scroll down a tad)?

I simply cannot see the failure of the bailout bill helping Republicans. They caused this mess. They then tried to claim credit for the negotiated fix. Then they didn’t vote for it. In the end, it seems they only stand for the status quo – a free for all. And McCain just looks stupid.

People favour Obama on things economic – they feel he can put together the best plan. I think many that didn’t like the bill, still want something to be done about the financial crisis. I think the democrats will be better trusted to put together a plan that will be acceptable to the majority (of the public, anyway).

“Catrina, can we get a spellchecker in here?”
Errr, Froggy, have you come across MS Word’s recently updated “document enhancer”?

And I agree with you a hunnert pahcent. If Senator McCain had suspended his campaign earlier and given Washington the benefit of his extensive experience, mano-a-Congresso , none of the present “economic downturn” would have found expression on Wall St :mrgreen:

I certainly agree that McCain has been hurt by this. But I do not agree that opposing the bailout will not help Republicans.

People may indeed want a plan; however, they do not seem to want this one. Thus, those voting for it are not going to be aided, while those voting against it may well be.

If it is the Democrats voting for this plan – a plan that people do not want – then I cannot see how that will translate to people trusting them to produce a better plan. After all, the Democrats pretty much have the numbers to vote through a plan without Republican help. As such, if they have a better plan, why aren’t they doing that?

Those are the questions that I would ask if I were a voter opposed to this plan.

Of course, most people may well simply think, ‘Darned Congress. Vote the bastards out,’ and thus incumbents, no matter which way they voted on the bill, will be the ones who suffer.

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