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The Senate: Democrat By How Much?

It has been clear for a long while now that the Democrats will increase their control of the US Senate, the question has always been by how much and can they reach the 60 votes required to win a vote on ‘cloture‘ and force though legislation. With several races in the bag and others that could go either way, I thought I would look at the races and state how likely it is that the Democrats will reach the magic number.

The Democrats currently control 51 seats in the 100 seat Senate. There are 35 senate elections occurring on November 4, 11 of which are considered competitive and 10 of those are currently held by the Republicans. The only Democratic seat in any danger is in Louisiana and is held by Mary Landrieu. The last poll conducted by a major polling organisation had her lead ballooning out to 53-37 on Aug 17, so she should now be safe.

The Republican seats that are almost certain to fall are Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia. Alaska is looking sure to fall as well, where Sen. Ted Stevens is not only likely to lose his seat, but is also at risk of crossing his Bridge only to discover that while Nowhere lacks basic amenities, it does have a jail cell. That gets the Democrats to 56.

The seats that are currently statistical ties are Minnesota and Oregon, with North Carolina’s last 3 polls being 48-42 Rep, 35-35 Tie and 51-45 Dem for a average of 42.67 each. In Mississippi Republican Roger Wicker has held a lead of about 48-43 for a couple of months while in Maine, Susan Collins looks sure to retain her seat.

Taking the optimistic view that the economic situation will help the Democrats, it therefore leaves the Senate line-ball on either 59 or 60. A more reserved outlook however would put the Democrats on 56.

There is also the question of Joe Lieberman. If the Senate becomes 56-44, there is a chance that he would be thrown out of the party. However if the result is 59-60 then the need to ensure his vote will see him remain. Lieberman will not leave himself, as that would lose him his positions on committees, including 3 chairmanships. The Democrat numbers also include Independent Socialist Bernie Sanders from Vermont, but there is not question that he will continue to causus with the Democrats.

By GhostWhoVotes

An Australian political observer.

857 replies on “The Senate: Democrat By How Much?”

DG, the republicans were right to can the bailout, and they could have extracted some political mileage out of it in the next few weeks, however the repubs killed any chance of that when they carried on about Jackboots Pelosi hurting their feelings.

The repubs had a chance to state to the american people that they they don’t think 700 billion dollars of tax payers money should be spent to bail out the banks, but they didn’t make the case that they are opposing the bill on any economic or philosophical grounds, instead they tried to play political games to kill the bailout while putting all of the blame on to the democrats, they failed and just look silly now.

Eg @ 86
Cum sanctis tuis in aeternum quia pius es!
Or at least till hell freezes over, eh Catrina?

You know, Chris, I think you’re developing into a bit of a Cultural Warrior 🙂
————————-
Hot off the mojo wire from the Apple.

The American century was created by American leadership, which is scarcer than credit just about now.

Said Project for a New American Century lickspittle David Brooks…….. whose zealous philosophies and hegemonic dreams are now but sand, falling through the hourglass of time.

Check out the narcissistic little twerp’s NYT photo. Talk about air-brushed!! Joey Stalin woulda been proud of a touch-up like David’s.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/30/opinion/30brooks.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

EC @ 107 “(may they rest)With your saints forever, because you are merciful!”
Catrina will understand the reference to hell’s exothermic properties. She knows that the student in question claimed to have propositioned a female friend who had told him that it,d be a cold day in hell before he got his way. He might have remembered Dante’s Inferno, with its injunction “Abandon hope, all you who’d enter her” (this is a loose translation )

109 Enemy Combatant Had that for a long time.
One album for you, Anthem of the Sun by the Grateful Dead.

31 “… but the tone of voice that Bernanke and Paulson used about this crisis, I’ve never heard anything like it in the years that I’ve been in public office, or alive.”

You know he’s in trouble when he talks about when he was alive.

G’day all! I’M BACK!
Speaking of the Senate: the latest poll suggests Elizabeth Dole will lose her North Carolina senate seat to the Democrat candidate Kay Hagen. Hagen is 8 points ahead of Dole.
And, Obama now has a 2 point lead over McCain in the state.

DEMOCRATS GUARD AGAINST GOP VOTER INTIMIDATION, WEEK OF SEPTEMBER 25-OCTOBER 1, 2008.

With perhaps the most important presidential election in US history just over five weeks away, the NC Democratic Party says its gearing up to make sure that the rights of voters at the polls are not violated or unduly challenged by the Republican Party.

Already there are published reports from Michigan, a key battleground state, about the Macomb County GOP there originally planning to employ ”voter caging,” a practice where Republicans would challenge the voter registration eligibility of black and other people of color at the polls on Election Day using a list of foreclosed homes to determine who no longer lives at an address from which mail was returned.

http://wilmingtonjournal.blackpressusa.com/news/Article/Article.asp?NewsID=91518&sID=12

113
Don Wigan Says:
September 30th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
31 “… but the tone of voice that Bernanke and Paulson used about this crisis, I’ve never heard anything like it in the years that I’ve been in public office, or alive.”

You know he’s in trouble when he talks about when he was alive.

…….

There is very little to make light of here, Don. This will turn out to be one of those times when you’ll be asked: “Do you remeber where yo were in Congress voted for self-immolation?”

This has the potential to be worse than 1929. I cannot beieve this is happening.

” And all the cracks had gathered to the fray”
G’day, Progressive, Don and Bo-Bo too.
Lovely frisson on the site today as the scent of decaying McCain wafts tantalisingly by our predatory nostrils.

Ta for the translation, Gipper.

Prog, you’re on the money with the NC Senate race. Dole’ll get done for sure.
Kossack Brownsox has got all the Senate snakes beautifully boxed here.
http://brownsox.dailykos.com/

Hussy, The Imbecile was wired up with a device for the third presidential debate of 2004.
http://www.visualfuturist.com/bushiswired/images/photoanalysis/debate1lg/bush_wired-large.jpg

Sarah Palin: Dinosaurs Coexisted With Human Beings.

Soon after Sarah Palin was elected mayor of the foothill town of Wasilla, Alaska, she startled a local music teacher by insisting in casual conversation that men and dinosaurs coexisted on an Earth created 6,000 years ago — about 65 million years after scientists say most dinosaurs became extinct — the teacher said.” LA Times

http://newsblaze.com/story/20080929132713reye.nb/topstory.html

EC, if I was in the Obama camp, i’d get someone who’s a wizz with a soldering iron to knock up a transmitter which emitted an intense high-pitched sound on all of the frequencies which those earpices usually receive on. Then I’d get Biden to carry it in his pocket during the debate.

With Country Angrier, Republicans at Edge of Even Bigger Congressional Losses.

The latest Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner survey of the competitive battleground districts reveals an intensely angry electorate, even more sour on Republicans who have not distanced themselves enough from Bush and are now at risk even at the edge of the current map of competitive congressional seats. Democratic candidates are now ahead by 4 points in the 40 most vulnerable Republican seats, even in the bottom tier. A near majority of 48 percent in these Republican seats say they “can’t vote to re-elect” their Republican incumbent, while Democrats are ahead in the open seats.

This memo is based on a survey of 1794 likely voters in the 50 most competitive Congressional districts, including 1384 likely voters in the 40 most competitive Republican seats and 400 likely voters in the 10 most competitive Democratic seats. The survey was conducted September 18-23, 2008.

http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2008/09/with-country-angrier-republicans-at-edge-of-even-bigger-congressional-losses/

http://static.crooksandliars.com/2008/09/banned_books1.jpg

http://static.crooksandliars.com/2008/09/banned_books2.jpg

So please, during Banned Book Week, support your local writers, dead or alive……… if we all do not actively defend the rights of others in my profession who have found themselves opposed by those who would censor our right to read, I could very well find myself joining the list of such esteemed writers as George Orwell, Maya Angelou, Judy Blume, William Faulkner, Alex Haley, Sylvia Plath, Toni Morrison, James Baldwin, Aldous Huxley, Mike Royko, Voltaire, Joseph Heller, J. D. Sallinger, Anne Rice, Jean Auel, Anthony Burgess, Alice Walker, the Grimms Brothers, Arthur Miller, Anne Frank, Stephen King, John Steinbeck, Margaret Atwood, Isabelle Allende, Allen Ginsberg, Sir Thomas Malory, C. S. Lewis, Laura Ingalls Wilder, William Golding, E. M. Forster, Philip Pullman, Kurt Vonnegut, Jr., William Shakespeare…
…and the American Heritage Dictionary.
I kid you not.

http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/09/29/viva-banned-book-week/

The thing is, when there are stockpiles of banned books stashed in government funded warehouses nationwide and reading those books is verbotten to citizens without “clearance”, Authorities quite often resort to burning those books in public places for the night-time edifiction of their citizens. In such instances, those Authorities invariably indicate “more appropriate usage of State Storage” as the underlying reason for their benevolent bonfires. People aren’t stupid these days.

Thank goodness for internet.

Unless of course it develops that folk “cain’t get no internet”, as befell the hapless citizens of South Park and America in last night’s episode.
You’d be surprised what folk resort to when they “cain’t get no internet”.

Black Box Voting says that votes in three counties could get the same trick as ohio in 2004 as the votes are routed through middlemen. They are asking the public to be super vigilant in the field for 90 minutes on election night.

2008 election results to be routed to private middlemen in Illinois, Colorado & Kentucky

“PROTECT THE COUNT” ACTIONS WILL HELP PROTECT RESULTS FROM CONTAMINATION BY MIDDLEMEN

If citizens DO the Poll Tape Posse action on the upcoming Protect the Count video (capturing video of the results on the voting machine results tapes BEFORE they leave the polling place, posting on YouTube) this will kick the legs out from under man in the middle attacks.

http://www.opednews.com/articles/1/2008-election-results-to-b-by-Bev-Harris-080929-93.html

Ecky,
Love the Munsch cartoon….would have been a few silent screams at the ASX today !! 🙂
And the Lenin one…sad but delicious!

“This has the potential to be worse than 1929. I cannot beieve this is happening.” 116

You’re right, blindoppie. It is frivolous compared with the disaster threatened. Reading huffpost I gained the impression the opposing Republicans know that they’re going to be punished for this at the coming election. So they’re hoping to salvage something by not supporting the bailout.

But they’re gone either way. It’s gonna get worse if nothing’s done. Their best chance is to join some of the leftist Dems and insist on protection for main street and for taxpayers. No benefit at all in no bailout of any kind.

Kirri?
Jen?
Missing your company.
Hope all ok with you.
Codge,
good to see you’re still lurking 🙂

DUBYAMANDIAS: George’s Legacy

I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the Texan desert. Near them on the sand,
Half sunk, a shatter’d visage lies, whose monkey features
And wrinkled lip and look of perpetual bewilderment
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamp’d on these lifeless things,
The hand that mock’d them and the heart that fed.
And on the pedestal these words appear:
“My name is Dubyamandias, POTUS:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!”
Nothing beside remains: round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare,
The lone and level sands stretch far away.

Just finished reading the last hundred comments – great to see some old friends raising their respective heads! I’ll ping KR just in case. After all its been three days.

Wall St. Problems Viewed as ‘Crisis’ in Latest Poll.

Most Americans see the current financial situation as a “crisis,” and there is overwhelming concern that the failure of the House of Representatives to pass the economic recovery package will deepen the problem, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

But the poll also revealed significant public concern with the bill Congress rejected yesterday, as few voters said the package did enough to protect “ordinary Americans,” and nearly half said it did not go far enough to shore up the nation’s economy.

Nevertheless, nearly nine in 10 expressed concern that the failure of the bill could lead to a more severe economic decline, including a slim majority calling themselves “very worried.” High levels of concern cross party lines, but Democrats and Republicans have contrasting views of the urgency of the situation. In the poll, 60 percent of Democrats call the economic woes a crisis, compared with 44 percent of Republicans.

Registration may be needed
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/30/AR2008093000450.html

Nevada is another state to watch this time. Apparently the Democrats have registered lots of new voters since 2004.
Today’s Daily Kos tracking poll of the overall race:
OBAMA 51
MCIDIOT 41

You’d think McCain might be focusing more on Ohio and Florida, Iowa seemingly is in the bag for Obama!
I read that McCain gave up on New Mexico a few weeks ago.

This will be the first time the VP has an effect on the result. Palin is so dumb, no one would want to risk the 200 year old man dying on the job. The moderator for the debate, Jim Lehrer, should roll out a big map and ask them to explain things using the map. She won’t be able to find the Pacific Ocean even when it is marked. They MUST ask questions about dinosaurs, and the solar system.

The Beginning of the End for McCain
(gives me such a thrill reading that sort of header)

……we are going to look back on last week and this one as the pivotal fortnight during which John McCain and, more broadly, the Republican-conservative political project finally came undone………

….mostly it has to do with the fact that a 72-year-old candidate literally embodies a party and ideology that has grown old in a hurry, and how the personal resentments that candidate exhibits toward his opponent merely confirm that party’s fear of new ideas and the future. Strip away the superficial narratives and horse-race distractions and we see that McCain is a late adopter, the inheritor of a dying movement that mythologizes a past that never really existed and, even if it did, isn’t returning anyway. This is why the senator from Arizona flails around, gasping for air and behaving as if he is unaware that he and his followers have reached the point where nothing–not even a young, cheeky, tabula rasa governor from a separatist state–can save them.

http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/?last_story=/politics/war_room/2008/09/30/mccain_fortnight/

Bomb-Bomb a saute le requin. Quel dommage!
—————————-

Gwen’s gonna moderate, fellahs.

Daily Kos Polling Data for September 30, 2008.

* = of special interest:

……….MCCAIN OBAMA BARR NADER OTHER UND
*Overall….41……..51…….2…….1……..2…….3
*MEN…….47……….45…….3…….1……..2…….2
*WOMEN…35………57…….1…….1……..2…….4
DEM………..8………88…….0…….1……. 1…….2
REP………..85……….6…….2…….0…….2……..5
*IND……..40……….49…….4……3……..2……..2
OTH/REF…40………48…….3……2……..2……..5
*WHITE….51………39…….3……1……..3……..3
BLACK……..3……….94……0…….0……..0……..3
*LATINO….23………68……0…….1……..0……..8
OTHER/REF.4……….83……0…….1……..0…….12
*18-29……30……….65……0…….1……..1……..3
*30-44……41……….48……4…….1………1…….5
*45-59……44……….50……1…….1………1…….3
*60+……….46……….41……1…….2………2…….8
NORTHEAST29………63……2…….1………1…….4
SOUTH…….53……….40……2…….1………2…….2
*MIDWEST.39……….54……2…….1………1…….3
WEST……..37………..52……2…….2………3…….4

http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/09/30

Huffpost are now publishing regular Intrade updates. Latest shows lots of blue on the map, and Obama with over 300.

I reckon there might yet be some of those red mid-western states go blue, even if the deep south looks solid for Macca.

Thanks to the greedy banker wankers and GOP government!
Coming to a house near you!
Watch the equity in your home disappear before your very own eyes:

But there’s “no evidence of a bottom,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P.

Las Vegas prices plunged the most at nearly 30 percent, with Phoenix diving 29 percent and Miami, 28 percent. Prices in the seven cities in the Sunbelt all fell between 20 percent and 30 percent from a year ago.

http://my.earthlink.net/channel/news/print?guid=20080930/48e1a440_3422_1334620080930-2600541

It’s interesting that the betting is now leading the polls. The lag in the polls will eventually catch up.

153 Don Wigan What was that about the Deep South?

Barack Obama and Jim Martin have dramatically tightened the Georgia races for president and U.S. Senate in the past two weeks, according to an exclusive poll for 13WMAZ.
According to the SurveyUSA poll released Tuesday, John McCain leads Obama by eight points, 52 percent to 44 percent.

McCain held a 16-point lead in the Peach State 13 days ago, according to the last SurveyUSA poll.

http://www.13wmaz.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/200809300921/NEWS02/80930008

In the latest polling, Obama’s share has increased 3 points and McCain’s has dropped five points.

Obama takes the lead in Florida.

Benefiting from increased voter concern over the economy and the declining popularity of Sarah Palin, Barack Obama has taken a 49-46 lead over John McCain in Florida. A PPP survey conducted three weeks ago, right after the Republican convention, showed McCain leading by five points in the state. 64% of poll respondents named the economy as their top issue, and within that group Obama holds a 55-40 lead. By comparison when PPP asked the same issues question in a January Florida survey just 26% said their biggest concern was the economy, and McCain led Obama by six points.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Florida_930354.pdf

In Ohio, Slight Movement to Obama, But Fight for 20 Electoral Votes Still Even:
If an election for President of the United States was held in Ohio today, 09/30/08, Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama would finish within one point of each other, according to this latest, WHIO-TV/SurveyUSA.

Today, it’s McCain 49%, Obama 48 — McCain’s nominal 1-point lead within the survey’s 3.8 percentage point margin of sampling error. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 15 days ago, Obama is up 3 points; McCain is flat.

McCain leads by 17 points among those who earn more than $50,000 a year. Obama leads by 21 points among those who earn less than $50,000 a year. McCain leads 5:4 in Columbus, Cincinnati, and Toledo. Obama leads 5:4 in greater Cleveland.

McCain and Obama are effectively tied in Dayton. McCain leads by 12 points among whites; Obama leads by 69 points among blacks.

65% of likely voters say the next president should focus on the economy ahead of all other issues: among that group, Obama leads 5:4. 9 of 10 Republicans vote for McCain; 8 of 10 Democrats vote for Obama; independents are tied.

http://www.whiotv.com/politics/17588559/detail.html

G’day Chris, how ya doing?
Nice to be back, I’m been lurking over on the Poll Bludger/Crikey blog lately, and the anti Obama crowd aren’t happy LOL

Yeah, Prog, one of the zealots to whom you refer at 162 was cautioning Possum, a trained economist/statistician(PhD level at least) and psephologist not to be so confident about predicting an Obama victory on current poll figures because Hawthorn were at similar bookie odds (as McCain is) before Hawthorn won the GF.

Yeah, right.

This is all he has left to cling to. Dead set fruit-loop!! Always was, really. No magnanimity is defeat for people like that. Generousity of spirit is a quality that constantly eludes them.
——————————–
http://www.truthdig.com/cartoon/item/20080930_the_liberator/

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/60370

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_9jbG-c2Ned4/SNzEokXTO_I/AAAAAAAABSY/ABR4wh45kNo/s1600-h/HIgher_standard_ofLiving.jpg

From the Palin/Couric Interview:

Couric: And when it comes to establishing your world view, I was curious, what newspapers and magazines did you regularly read before you were tapped for this — to stay informed and to understand the world?

Palin: I’ve read most of them again with a great appreciation for the press, for the media —

Couric: But what ones specifically? I’m curious.

Palin: Um, all of them, any of them that have been in front of me over all these years.

Couric: Can you name any of them?

Palin: I have a vast variety of sources where we get our news.

Um, all of them?

By Post Author

Enemy Combatant: you’re referring to Adam from Canberra?
I’m yet to come across a Hillary supporter that’s a bigger whiner than Adam, and he’s now in a strange alliance with Ron and a few other McCain supporters.

New ABC/Washington Post poll giving Obama a four-point lead. It looks like their +9 poll was a bit of an outlier, but I think that Obama’s lead is higher than +4 at present – probably around +6. It is difficult to tell, though, as the tracking polls are bouncing around a bit.

The weird thing is that there are still around 20 per cent of the electorate who have not decided for certain who they will vote for. For someone who is basically a fanatical follower of the election, it is hard for me to grasp that there are a fair few people who do not even bother to pay any attention to it until a few weeks out. And some who do not decide until they walk into the polling booth.

Another article for the psephs, this time from Pollster.com.

The bottom line: The national trackers are showing additional gains for Obama over the last week. These gains are probably not yet fully registered on the standard state trend estimates that drive our map. If these gains hold — a big “if” — we will likely see continuing movement to Obama on the national map over the next week.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/morning_status_update_for_930.php

Katielou at 170,

This is why we need more state polling. Well, I need it at any rate. 🙂

Let me get this straight – McCain is campaigning in Ohio where he has almost no chance of holding their 20 EV’s…..while Florida’s 27 EV’s swing relentlessly toward Obama.

Is that right?

Not enough, Progressive; not enough. As we get more polling, I need even more polling. But I can give it up anytime I want to.

Ah, I see: the last Survey USA poll had McCain in front by 16. That is interesting. Still out of reach, though, I think.

168 David Gould It happens a lot in elections involving change. Whether change to conservative or left leaning. They make their mind up usually in the last week. Then they go with the trend. 20% is much bigger than usual, and looks very good for Obama, at the moment.

Government could rest in Stevens case by Thursday.

The Justice Department could rest its case against Sen. Ted Stevens as soon as Thursday, significantly boosting the chances that a verdict will be reached before Election Day.

Stevens has pushed for a quick trial so jurors at the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia could reach a verdict before Alaskan voters decide in November if they should send the longest-serving Senate Republican in history back to the upper chamber for a seventh full term.

Nicholas Marsh, a Justice Department attorney, told Judge Emmet G. Sullivan on Tuesday that the government would call eight more witnesses this week. If cross-examination does not take too long, the government would rest its case on Oct. 2. Sullivan said he may give jurors a day off on Friday.

With defense attorneys saying they need only one week to present their case, jury deliberations could begin a full three weeks prior to Election Day.

Maybe Stevens is so arrogant he thinks he can get off. With everything falling the Democrats way, that’s not likely. Although maybe they are due for a small setback. NA! Let’s think positive. 😈
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/government-could-rest-in-stevens-case-by-thursday-2008-09-30.html

Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) has made a $1 million contribution from his campaign to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), he told supporters in an e-mail Tuesday.

Kerry said the current financial crisis shows how important it is for Democrats to get to 60 seats.

“It’s time to push even harder to completely change Washington,” Kerry wrote in an e-mail. “So I have an announcement: I just gave a million dollars from my campaign to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to try to make this happen.”

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/kerry-gives-dscc-1-million-2008-09-30.html

The senate has never run a national advertising campaign before. If they launch a massive national campaign in the last two weeks. Those seats within 15% will be easy pickings.

I think I was looking at the wrong page for the Georgia polling. There has been a 15 point gain for the Democrats in two weeks. 🙂

I have never doubted that the Democratic machine would get it right. The thing that has surprised me is that everything has gone far better, (so far) than I, (or they for that matter) could have expected.

Chris B

Has the Dems machine got it right or have the McCain team got it oh so wrong.

I actually think the Obama campain is still at least a weeek away from full throttle.

I certainly know I’d hate to be covering DG’s side of your bet.

DogB,

I still cannot see how Obama reaches 400 EV. If we assume Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana and Florida all fall to Obama, plus the Kerry states, plus Ohio and Virginia, plus Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, we are still only at 375.

Comments are closed.