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The Senate: Democrat By How Much?

It has been clear for a long while now that the Democrats will increase their control of the US Senate, the question has always been by how much and can they reach the 60 votes required to win a vote on ‘cloture‘ and force though legislation. With several races in the bag and others that could go either way, I thought I would look at the races and state how likely it is that the Democrats will reach the magic number.

The Democrats currently control 51 seats in the 100 seat Senate. There are 35 senate elections occurring on November 4, 11 of which are considered competitive and 10 of those are currently held by the Republicans. The only Democratic seat in any danger is in Louisiana and is held by Mary Landrieu. The last poll conducted by a major polling organisation had her lead ballooning out to 53-37 on Aug 17, so she should now be safe.

The Republican seats that are almost certain to fall are Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia. Alaska is looking sure to fall as well, where Sen. Ted Stevens is not only likely to lose his seat, but is also at risk of crossing his Bridge only to discover that while Nowhere lacks basic amenities, it does have a jail cell. That gets the Democrats to 56.

The seats that are currently statistical ties are Minnesota and Oregon, with North Carolina’s last 3 polls being 48-42 Rep, 35-35 Tie and 51-45 Dem for a average of 42.67 each. In Mississippi Republican Roger Wicker has held a lead of about 48-43 for a couple of months while in Maine, Susan Collins looks sure to retain her seat.

Taking the optimistic view that the economic situation will help the Democrats, it therefore leaves the Senate line-ball on either 59 or 60. A more reserved outlook however would put the Democrats on 56.

There is also the question of Joe Lieberman. If the Senate becomes 56-44, there is a chance that he would be thrown out of the party. However if the result is 59-60 then the need to ensure his vote will see him remain. Lieberman will not leave himself, as that would lose him his positions on committees, including 3 chairmanships. The Democrat numbers also include Independent Socialist Bernie Sanders from Vermont, but there is not question that he will continue to causus with the Democrats.

By GhostWhoVotes

An Australian political observer.

857 replies on “The Senate: Democrat By How Much?”

490

Chris, for Obama to reach 400 EVs, he needs the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Indiana and then either:

a) Texas
b) Georgia, West Virginia and Arkansas
c) Georgia, West Virginia and Mississippi
d) Georgia, West Virginia, North Dakota and Montana

Arkansas is the most likely way that Obama would reach 400 EVs with the 2004 result being Kerry 45% Bush 54%, however with Obama polling worse that Kerry did in Arkansas it is extremely unlikely that Arkansas will turn blue.

By Post Author

Thanks for your good wishes ChristopherB- and goodnight to you also.

GhostWhoVotes (who shall forevermore be known as GWV)- does it truly matter given that a win is a win…as long asthe NeoCons are
D E A D.
And sure a big win is even better , but whatTF.
and..are you coming to the party in Brissy?

504

“Does it truly matter given that a win is a win…as long as the NeoCons are D E A D.”

A very fair point, it’s only because Chris has money riding on 400 EVs that I wrote comment 503.

By Post Author

It occurs to me that McCain’s basic identifier – as “the maverick” – and his seemingly deliberate quirkiness have backfired very badly. Where the American public are doubtless looking for reassurance from their leaders, instead McCain just seems erratic and out of place. Far from projecting any strength of purpose, he looks like an empty gimmick.

I guess back in 2007 when he started out as the Republican you have when you’re not having a Republican, his maverick persona made sense. But now, it just makes him look out of place, out of date and out of touch.

By contrast, Obama’s very thoughtfulness, calmness and clarity – even his intellectual cool – are at the very least reassuring. This is a huge breakthrough for him. “Change” is no longer a threat: it is the pathway to refuge from the storm now breaking over America.

He is going to walk away with this election. Let’s hope he can swing a couple more Senate seats too.

E-Day minus 31; The Kid is well positioned and travelling a treat.

Obama’s Lead Keeps Growing In Tracking Polls:

Bear in mind that these three-day surveys were conducted before last night’s vice-presidential debate. As such, they don’t tell us what effect — if any — that the debate had on the race. But what they do give us is a baseline for determining that effect as we see more polls over the next few days”

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/obamas_lead_keeps_growing_in_t.php

OK, now that Bomb-Bomb’s campaign is in a tailspin, it’s time to go after the P.P. McGuinnesses, Gregie Sheridans, Ronnie Bruntons, Keith Windschuttles and Gerry Hendersons of GOPperdom’s Ministry of Propaganda. Well, to be fair, one doesn’t have to pillory these people. But I like to. Enhances my “feelgood factor”. Call it a weakness.

From a link on RCP, the most unbiased political website evah, comes the jabberings of Cultural Warrior, WSJ’s Peggy Noonan (think Janet Albrechtsen less 50 I.Q. points) who is either:

1/shilling or

2/ has deluded herself into believing that Tina Fey can only take the piss out of Governor Palin so brilliantly because, wait for it……

Her work with Amy Poehler (as Katie Couric) in last weekend’s spoof on “Saturday Night Live” was so astoundingly good—the hand gestures, the vocal tone and spirit—that it captured some of the actual heart of the Palin story………
But to observe life so closely takes a kind of love.

That’s right, folks. Tina Fey is destroying Sarah Palin (who has just undergone the most spectacular Opinion Poll slide since since Salome knocked back Davo for a naughty)……..because SHE LOVES HER!

Similar mega-specious logic was observed by liberators of places like Persepolis, Alexandria, Hue, and Fullujah, which all had to be lovingly destroyed in order to be saved.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122300786229301597.html

Fri Oct 3:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=Ap5eICfm9h0nw4w4VoXvslLmcLQF

One more thing….. as a Mistress of Mendacity, Peggy is peerless.

Open mic incident
On an appearance on MSNBC with Mike Murphy on September 3, 2008, Noonan was caught questioning the choice of Sarah Palin as John McCain’s running mate after her mic was accidentally left on.[7] In the conversation she said that “it’s over,” and “the most qualified? No! I think they [the Republicans] went for this—excuse me—political bullshit about narratives—”. This came after an article published earlier that morning in the Wall Street Journal in which she called Palin a “a real and present danger to the American left, and to the Obama candidacy”. Later that day, she explained in an addendum to the online version of the column that “It’s over” did not refer to the McCain campaign and apologized for use of the profanity, adding that her skepticism at the McCain campaign’s reason for selecting Palin did not mean that Noonan herself opposed Palin.[8][9]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peggy_Noonan

Next: Little Chucky Krauthammer.

Top a the mornin to ya EC. Did ya shit the bed mate?
The inter tubes are gearing up to force issues that MSM will not.
Uncle Roos’ next trick will be to try to own the internet.

Over 2,750 doctors have signed the open letter urging John McCain to provide full disclosure of his medical records. And yet the corporate press has gone to great lengths to prevent the public from discussing this issue. That’s why today on Meet the Bloggers at 1pm ET/10am PT, special guest Dr. Richard Sagebiel will lead the charge for full disclosure and transparency regarding McCain’s health history.

http://www.opednews.com/articles/McCain-s-Medical-Records-S-by-the-web-081003-875.html

Another Veteran goes to print on what a hypocrite and liar McStupid is over his “love for the Veterans”

As a veteran myself, I ask you to check out John McCain’s record on veteran support.

Veterans should not vote for McCain just because he is a veteran–any more than senior citizens should vote for him because he is old. Check out his record. What you will find is a lying, two-faced hypocrite.

http://www.opednews.com/articles/John-McCain-Has-Deserted-t-by-Mick-Youther-081002-569.html

I heard a radio report this morning about McCain doing an interview after the House vote today where he said ….get this, that Bush should veto the bill!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Apparently it was a bizarre and incomprehensible performance that showed the ‘maverick’ just floundering and clueless.

He’s really losing the plot, not just the election.

Pleased that you included Greg Sheridan in the Bush shills, Ecky (though a bit surprised Paddy got a gig. Surely his ghost cannot hurt us!)

One of Greg’s best was that history would remember Bush a lot more kindly as a real hero. prepared to stand up to terrorists.

Oddly enough I can see an historic parallel. Just as Howard was the first PM to follow Bruce into oblivion; so Bush surpasses another 20s politician, Warren Harding, as the worst ever president.

159,000 jobs lost in September, for a straight 9 months of losses, will have grabbed the voters attention more than Minnie Moose’s cue card reading.

Oh, by the way Ecky, don’t forget Herr Doktor for your list. Remember, anyone who said last year that Obama had a good chance and that the US economy was headed for disaster was an “ignorant loathing leftie”! LOL

I still wear that badge with honour!

Palin Disagrees With Michigan Pullout, Takes Second Stab at ‘Gotcha’ Questions.

Sarah Palin criticized John McCain’s decision to pull campaign resources out of Michigan in an interview with FOX News on Friday, saying she and her husband Todd would “be happy” to campaign in the economically distraught battleground state.

The Republican vice presidential nominee, on the heels of her debate with Joe Biden, also took a second stab at questions that seemed to trip her up during recent interviews, declaring that she looks “forward to speaking to the media more and more every day.”

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/03/palin-disputes-michigan-pullout-takes-second-stab-gotcha-questions/

Bonjour to you too, Gaffy. Fell asleep with a book early and woke before sparrow’s all the while sandwichd between percale lamellae that remain unblemished. Thanks for asking:)

Yes, Don, normally my sense of common human decency precludes me from speaking ill of the recently deceased, but in McGuinness’s case, it was easy.
Wazza Harding, a last minute compromise choice for POTUS apparently, was stupid and corrupt. However unlike The Imbecile, he at least looked the part.

‘Ullo Kirri, lovely to see you about all bright-eyed and bushy. I’m afraid Herr Doktor could never qualify for my opprobrium like those other bought souls.
To qualify as a Cultural Warrior, one needs to be clever or connected or published enough to be considered a public intellectual. Herr Doktor qualifies on none of the abovementioned, indeed last time I heard, he was still gainfully unemployed.
Hell hath no fury like a shill wannabe spurned, they fulminate like a blow-fly trapped in a confined space.

Chris, g’day, took a visual double entendre at your comment at 518. Are you coming to BrisVegas Nov5?

Mornin’ all.

Jen @ 498: Bob Beckel over at Fox agrees with you:

“By Bob Beckel

Have we reached the point of mediocrity in this country that Sarah Palin’s debate performance was actually acceptable to her supporters (fortunately, Independents in early polls do not share that view) because she didn’t fall on her face, as many conservatives feared? That’s your standard? No wonder there are still some of you who still think George Bush, the very definition of mediocrity, is a good president.

In a word, Palin’s debate performance was awful. She couldn’t win a high school student council election with those homespun platitudes, repetitive inane comments about the war, and most strikingly her refusal to answer not a few but EVERY question put to her that demanded a direct answer.”

Another sectacularly good bit of coal-face reportage fron 538’s Sean Quinn. These 538 guys have rendered redundant many an MSM dinosaur who had the opportunity, but failed to take the option of adapting to the future of campaign chronicling before “extinction of irrelevance” became their only option. The combined skills and talent that Nate and Sean bring to the cyber-table is in a word, stunning.

Chris, if what Sean writes is true about the slackness of Johnny Bomb-Bomb’s ground game, and I’ve no reason to doubt him to date, your unbridled faith in The Kid glomming >400 ECVs is now “not the roughest”. Perhaps our Man in Canberra will feel compelled to revise his prediction upwards of 298 ECVs for whom that tipsy Appalachian lady termed in yesterday’s links, “that A-Rab Hoo Sane”.

Can’t wait for SQ’s grassroots guts on Indiana. These guys at 538 have the talent to make elction junkies like us feel like insiders. That’s a talent that most career political hack reporters could not hope to attain in a dozen working lifetimes.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-st-louis-county-missouri.html

Finally, how could a calculating scumbag like Turd Blossom run a campaign as slack as this at the grassroots level through his bastard spawn surrogate, Steve “Schmuckens” Schmidt, unless he had wind of an October Suprise like no other?

Nah, fargeddaboudit. Just being paranoid. GOPpers are fine upstanding specimans of humanity despite the occasional bit of knuckle-dragging. They couldn’t possibly be planning such a thing.
Besides, Rover’s moxa was rooted after the 2006 mid-terms when GOPpers lost Senators, Congress persons and Governorship in States like CO, VA, OH and NM.

SpamB
Adam Carr, he told us all in no uncertain terms, (and he was the ‘expert’) that only Hillary could win the Democratic nomination, and it would all be over by Super Tuesday. Oh, and any talk about the US economy imploding was the delusional ranting of leftwing nutbags.

It wasn’t so much his opinion, it was more like a decree, that Obama just could not win because of racism and his lack of experience compared with the Clinton machine.

Excellent character analysis, Kirri.

Spam, Herr Doktor has left an indelible dot in the annals of psephology with his groundbreaking analysis of last year’s by-election in Spitsburgen. Some say he had no toys as a child, hence the all inclusive nature of his World Work, which although not peer-reviewed, is highly thought of in Milparinka, Woop-Woop, Dirrambandi and Marble Bar.

http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/guide7.shtml

http://psephoblog.wordpress.com/2007/12/13/stirring-the-possum/#comments

The Dems are as much to blame according to this from the UK Independent:

“…when I see such senior Democrats as Barney Frank, Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, and Christopher Dodd, Chairman of the Senate’s Banking Committee, play the part of avenging angels – well, I can only stand in silent awe at the sheer tight-bottomed nerve of it. These are men with sphincters of steel.

What is the proximate cause of the collapse of confidence in the world’s banks? Millions of improvident loans to American housebuyers. Which organisations were on their own responsible for guaranteeing half of this $12 trillion market? Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae …Now, who do you think were among the leading figures blocking all the earlier attempts by President Bush – and other Republicans – to bring these lending behemoths under greater regulatory control? Step forward, Barney Frank and Chris Dodd.

In September 2003 the Bush administration launched a measure to bring Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under stricter regulatory control, after a report by outside investigators established that they were not adequately hedging against risks and that Fannie Mae in particular had scandalously mis-stated its accounts. In 2006, it was revealed that Fannie Mae had overstated its earnings – to which its senior executives’ bonuses were linked – by a stunning $9.3billion. Between 1998 and 2003, Fannie Mae’s executive chairman, Franklin Raines, picked up over $90m in bonuses and stock options.

Yet Barney Frank and his chums blocked all Bush’s attempts to put a rein on Raines. During the House Financial Services Committee hearing following Bush’s initiative, Frank declared: “The more people exaggerate a threat of safety and soundness [at Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae], the more people conjure up the possibility of serious financial losses to the Treasury which I do not see. I think we see entities that are fundamentally sound financially.” His colleague on the committee, the California Democrat Maxine Walters, said: “There were nearly a dozen hearings where we were trying to fix something that wasn’t broke. Mr Chairman, we do not have a crisis at Freddie Mac and particularly at Fannie Mae under the outstanding leadership of Mr Franklin Raines.”

😆 😆 ….
You’re firing on 24 cylinders this morning,Ecky!
Was it your reading matter last night…or the percale sandwich referred to in reply to Gaffy?
Whatever it is,my waterproof mascara has just proved that it isn’t laughter-proof!

Thanks, megan, it wuz the change in circadian rhythms wot done it for sure:)

Ghost at 522, loved this snippet from Ms Klein. Amazing irony that’s she’s being published in The Gyppo Times. This is the land that produced Al-Zawahiri, Al-Kaeda’s No. 2.

In becoming the poster girl for a re-branded continuation of the Bush administration, Palin is showing herself to have much in common with glossy faux-populists like Eva Peron or Denmark’s anti-immigrant leader Pia Kjærsgaard. What we should learn — for next time and for every time to come — is that great leaders and great dreams are being overlooked in the women who prepare our food, process our Internet orders, and wipe up the spills in our hospitals.

It is these women’s voices that deserve support — not that of a scary stalking-horse for eight more years (or more) of rule by the thugs who looted America’s treasury, wrecked its economy, and sent 4,000 brave young men and women to die in a war based on lies.

Ol McTrophy is peppy with his latest lil plaything Caribou Barbie

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0r8hhShMyZw

LOLOLOLOL…oh f*ck it…has there ever been a more pathetic ticket?

He reminds me of a dirty old Dick Emery or Benny Hill. His navy buddies will be proud.

How ’bout her hehhhhhhhh…honk honk.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDou01X5d28&feature=related

I’ve been watching Billo the Clown the last few weeks on Faux. This dude is so easy to read it’s not funny…not that his audience of retards over there would get it though.

He has gone on a bender the last 2 days completely losing the plot.
2 reasons for this.

1) It has been quite obvious, through a couple little things he has said,that the boob has done a heap of dough on Lehman and Merrill and is pissed off.
2) His new book debuted at No.2. The first time he hasn’t debuted at No.1. Which means he has lost more dough and is even more pissed.

So off he goes on publicity seeking rants and tantrums to release his anger and get his name in the headlines again.

haha

Afternoon Tragics –
Hussy: I’d be more worried about Macca’s health fullstop. Never mind his policies – I reckon the poor old bugger is heading for a stroke.
In which case would we get sarah as candidate for POTUS – hahahahahah. Oh PLease let it be so – 😈

Oh , and Kirri – i think you should definitely win the award for not saying “Nyah Nyah i Told You So “. Your restraint and humilty is admirable- and a certain smartypants psephologist who resides elsewhere could learn a little lesson in humility from such a fine example. 😎

530
Ferny Grover

There’s dirt on everyone’s hands if you care to look, but the idea that Fannie and Freddie are somehow the cause of this debacle is risible, and an utter distortion of the significance of the non-GSE sector in driving the sub-prime market. Sure, both Fannie and Freddie had some shonky accounting issues which should have seen some punishments meted out, but this was NOT how the subprime lending turned into a WMD (Weapon of Market Destruction).

Clinton overturning Glass Steagall in 1999 was by far the biggest opening of the sluice gates and set up the markets for the flood of collusion and conflict of interests and outright corruption subsequently infested Wall Street:

An agreement between the Clinton administration and congressional Republicans, reached during all-night negotiations which concluded in the early hours of October 22, sets the stage for passage of the most sweeping banking deregulation bill in American history, lifting virtually all restraints on the operation of the giant monopolies which dominate the financial system.

The proposed Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999 would do away with restrictions on the integration of banking, insurance and stock trading imposed by the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933, one of the central pillars of Roosevelt’s New Deal. Under the old law, banks, brokerages and insurance companies were effectively barred from entering each others’ industries, and investment banking and commercial banking were separated.

…and of course, the industry bought (er, bribed?) the politicians:

…Citigroup, was in violation of the Glass-Steagall Act, because billionaire Travelers boss Sanford Weill and Citibank CEO John Reed were confident of bipartisan support for repeal of the 60-year-old law.

They had good reason, to be sure. The banking, insurance and brokerage industry lobbyists have combined their forces over the last five years to mount the best-financed campaign of influence-buying ever seen in Washington. In 1997 and 1998 alone, the three industries spent over $300 million on the effort: $58 million in campaign contributions to Democratic and Republican candidates, $87 million in “soft money” contributions to the Democratic and Republican parties, and $163 million on lobbying of elected officials.

…it goes on and on.

Like I said, no one had clean hands. But Freddie and Fannie being the source of the problem? Nah, they were as much victims of what happened in the frenzied environment of mad lending as anyone else.

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/60778

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/60739

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/60749

Take #2
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/60768

Take #3 (best on theme, for mine)
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/60780

In the 2004 Missouri campaign, Catholic priests on instructions from above preached against John Kerry from Sunday pulpits on moral grounds costing Kerry any chance of winning the State’s 11 electoral votes. Holy Mother Church’s hierarchy it seems, preferred the superior Christian Values of a warmongerer like The Imbecile.

“Blessed are the peacemakers, for they will be called children of God.”
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/60771

Only trouble is, gee whiz, fightin’ Evil Doers sure don’t come cheap
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/60774

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/60325

Afternoon,Jen,
Hear,hear re Kirri – though some of us can’t be as magnanimous about said smartypants and cohorts ! 🙂
However,for the sake of world peace, …..zip!

Hi there Megan- Kirri is being suitably humble about his award, but then I would expect no less.
I thInk we should have a full ceremony at Brissy to crown him with the glory he so deserves. And Ecky clearly gets the award for Most Aptly Illustrative Cartoons , and of course Catrina for Best Ditching of Annoying Neighbours.
There are many other categories which come to mind and some may have to be awarded In Absentia, so I will post for nominations shortly.

541- Ecky.
Bloody Catholics!
They would have supported Bush because he was ‘pro-Life’ : read anti-women. And the big surprise is the Catholics would rather save the soul of a zygote than the millions lost in Iraq. But then again – Iraqi’s not true believers in the One True God. Oh shoot me before I unleash the biggest rant to ever grace this thread. More wine.

Someone mentioned something earlier about something big in October, could this be the catalyst? The imbecile would dive in boots and all to help out would he not!

Give Lebos a touch up and move on to Syria for supporting them and then on to Eyeran for supporting Syria.

“We will use disproportionate force against these villages (in southern Lebanon) and cause enormous destruction because from our point of view these are not villages but military bases,” Major General Gadi Eisenkot, the top commander in northern Israel was quoted by Yediot Aharonot on Friday.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=71191&sectionid=351020203

Bewdy, jen, have a glass for me.
Having as many of the gang as can make it to Brissy on Nov 5 will be its own reward and joy. Be swell to get a few shots and jpeg ’em for posterity.
If no-one objects(ie they have cameras) it occurred to me to ask a few of the local Old Media who might like to say g’day. A lot of the Courier Mail journos have adopted another part of the Jubilee Hotel as their watering hole and will probably wanna know what all the whoopin’ and hollerin’ over at the dining deck is about anyway when they pop in for their heart-staters at lunch time. Even thinking of inviting the Sep Pol tragics at LP. There are quite a few of them in the Brissy area and SEQ who might like to savour the sizzle of the historic occasion.

Anyway it’s up to you guys—- it’s our show. We have the option of roping the area off if we so choose. Perhaps it’s best if we discuss the matter (link below) should there be fair reasons for excluding anyone. Reckon anybody with a Passion for U.S. Politics and a smile on their dial is more than welcome. Over to you, Ticsters…
https://politic.osm.net/the-party/

I stopped posting at Poll Bludger/Crikey, because I got tired of Adam Carr’s rantings and his continual whining and sour grapes!
Sadly, he’s now fallen into the anti Obama loony camp, with the likes of Ron!

McCain apparently has gone back to Arizona for crisis meetings with his campaign advisers
And, he is said to be now worried about Indiana, a state that Bush won easily last time.
The Republicans apparently are about to go very negative and target Obama’s supposed dodgy connections – HO HUM!

419
Ghost Who Votes

Is he any relation to this Bill O’Reilly?

O’Reilly Hit With Sex Harass Suit
Female Fox coworker details lewd behavior of cable TV star
OCTOBER 13–Hours after Bill O’Reilly accused her of a multimillion dollar shakedown attempt, a female Fox News producer fired back at the TV star today, filing a lawsuit claiming that he subjected her to repeated instances of sexual harassment and spoke often, and explicitly, to her about phone sex, vibrators, threesomes, masturbation, the loss of his virginity, and sexual fantasies. Below you’ll find a copy of Andrea Mackris’s complaint, an incredible page-turner that quotes O’Reilly, 55, on all sorts of lewd matters. Based on the extensive quotations cited in the complaint, it appears a safe bet that Mackris, 33, recorded some of O’Reilly’s more steamy soliloquies.

http://www.thesmokinggun.com/archive/1013043mackris1.html

Ecky…there are certainly one or two I’d rather be roped off from. None from this site of course.
Back to the semillon….a lovely 1999 Basedow

As for the venue hire fee being waived – leave the cost at around $15 a head and put any leftovers into tucker. In fact, make it $20 a head and add a glass of wine.

mmmmmmm…..wine

GWV….at the risk of sounding like a lawyer…..accusations on a dodgy website do not constitute proof, regardless of how insufferable the accused is.

No worries, Ferny, the auguries for the day are all good.
10/4 Daily Kos R2K Tracking Poll: Obama 52, McCain 40
http://demfromct.dailykos.com/
————————-
“In the backstreets of Roswell*, flags fly from housefronts, religious homilies adorn letter boxes. One business boarded up, the other functioning: one motel open, another defunct…….
Life’s a gamble, a series of transitions; success, failure, bankruptcy, recovery; sin, forgiveness, repentance, rebirth–or being “born again”, as they say. The capitalist churn invested with divine favour. Under the flag, under God, every American can choose everything. This is freedom.”

“American Journeys” Don Watson p. 246, 2008, Knopf.
* New Mexico

Ecky -I’m all for anybody joining us. I imagine there will be a self-selection process anyway and it is highly unlikely that anyone from the ABO sect would show. (Anyone But Obama for those that don’t know – although i’m sure you know who they are).
It will be great to put faces to names at last – and names to names for that matter!

Think so, Andrew, he’ll need a buffer this big as insurance against the mud that is about to be avalanched his way. As with El Rodente in the lead up to nov 2007, enough of the punters are awake to Obama’s pending swiftboating to render the slurs relatively ineffective. You can’t fool all of the people etc./ with a dash of the GOPper who cried wolf. Obi’s handled everything tossed his way by the best in the dross business so far and come up smelling roses.
His form indicates that he’ll not wilt in the final furlong.

Americans are scared shitless right now about their financial futures. This time, unlike 9/11, they don’t have to look to Tora Bora or even to I-raq to smoke out the bad guys. This time enough Americans know where the flak is coming from and they’ll deal with it at the polling booths.

Still, 52/40 is mighty encouraging for Kid supporters.

Ecky -I agree that all stops will be out from the Repugs for the next 4 weeks – but my hunch is Obi has also been holding back. They’ll sling dirt while I reckon he’ll forcefully sink the boots in on the economy, Iraq (and the trillions wasted there), the environment , Bush and Co. etc. He’s been pretty measured to date but he has so much material to use that it will be a non-stop bollocking for McCain – I’m waiting for the passion to show. And clearly he has it or he would never have got this far.

Palin test – square of the stiletto multiplied by depth of lipstick divided by % of non-answers and then minus days since last press conference?
Seems to come up negative. Is there something wrong with maths?

McCain is going to campaign in Maine – WTF?
He is apparently convinced he can win at least 1 electoral vote in the state.
I have the distinct impression the wheels are falling off the Team McCain bus, at an alarming rate.
All they have left is to throw mud and smear at Obama!

Plenty of interesting polls in from votemaster, this one is very interesting.

We also have 1 House poll and it could be the handwriting on the wall. NM-02 is a solid (R+6) Republican district. This is the seat Steve Pearce vacated to run for the Senate. Despite the district’s leaning, Democrat Harry Teague is ahead of Republican Edward Tinsley 47% to 43%. If Republicans are having trouble holding open seats in solid Republican districts, they could be in real trouble in many other House districts that haven’t been polled.

http://www.electoral-vote.com

The blogs are reporting that Scmuckins Scmidt has decided that the last 30 days must be a blitzkrieg of linking Obama to all his “dangerous associates” Rezko, Ayres and Wright. Full on negative attacks to Nov 4.

The responce will be devastating from Obama’s campaign. A final week ad blitz in every swing state linking McSame to the most dangerous and hated man in America.

http://s144.photobucket.com/albums/r163/InsultComicDog/?action=view&current=poster82119012.jpg

Good Evening Chris and Harry!
A new Rasmussen poll shows Obama is now 10 points ahead in New Hampshire!
Methinks McCain ought to forget about trying to win Kerry states, he’s in enough shit in his own backyard.

Gday Prog

I think from here it is all about stopping 60 senate seats and winning down ticket races for the RNC.

Pulling out of Michigan this early is a massive white flag on McCain. Nothing to win there so they moved resources to Minnestota to help Coleman keep ultra liberal Franken from winning.

It’s all over for McCain. All the Republicans still in the 40 to 45% they are getting now care about is Sarah. McCain is bringing no-one to the ticket. The Indy’s that were once his have mainly deserted because of Sarah.

557
Ferny G
Thanks for your concern and i am sure GWV will understand where you are coming from.
However the story does have legs as there are a few web sites have given it the rounds.
The latest leg up was on Sept 30 this year when Levin had a go back at O’Rielly over his latest outburst about who caused the Wall St collapse.
What he says about the harassment case has got SFA to do with the collapse and Levin is a public announcer on ABC so i guess that he has got plenty of (worthless) greenbacks or the story is true.

Mark Levin attacks Bill O’Reilly: “You paid more in hush money for your little phone sex than I’ve ever earned.”

http://www.crooksandliars.com/category/fox-news/bill-oreilly/

He had a chop at McStupid on Super Tuesday:

On Monday’s Mark Levin Show: Mark discusses the Constitution and what John McCain would do to it – especially the 4th and 5th amendments.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1965183/posts

Agree with all the comments that the GOPpers are at the “Desparate men do desparate things” stage.

The economy has had such a powerful play on the media etc and the shrills are no longer getting traction. I think the voting Seppos are at the same stage we were in the lead up to November. They have had enough, same as us with the rodent, and all they want is a fresh start.
Anything they throw at BO now will be in such a minute scale compared with what the imbecile has done over the last 8 years to their country.
They have taken up the cry of the bouncers at closing time “everybody out”!

This writer puts it a little more succinctly than i did at 457:

The arrogance of Sarah Palin;

The process of campaigning is, in essence, a job interview, no?

In what universe would does the applicant (candidate) get to choose what question(s) they will be asked or deign to answer and from whom they will be questioned? That is how disrespectful of the electorate (we are supposed to be the bosses last time I checked, no?) the McCain/Palin 08 campaign has been since he put Palin on the ticket. I think that there should be a full page ad in every paper (on every channel and website) reminding EVERYONE of these simple facts and the GOP’s standard bearer’s jaw-dropping disregard for their (potential) future employers.

As ye campaign, so shall ye govern, no?

We’ve been down this road the last two elections/terms. By adopting their tactics they have more than proven they will be Bush/Cheney/Rove redux.

Would you hire anyone who so disrespected you during the interview process? Would anyone?

SOMEONE NEEDS TO PUT THIS OUT THERE AND TO McCAIN/PALIN

http://www.americablog.com/2008/10/arrogance-of-sarah-palin.html

This is a very interesting interview of Bob Woodward by Bill Maher. He’s talking about Iraq. For me, there’s at least 2 jaw dropping moments in the interview. One thing he notes is that the decrease in violence in Iraq that coincided with the surge, was not due to the surge, but “highly classified techniques”. I know that can’t be verified at the moment, but Woodward carries a lot of credibility.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOR7geNWsTw

Hindsight always tell you beautiful things.

Gwen Ifil was far too soft as a moderator at the VP debate.
The needed someone like John McEnroe.

Mc: Ms Palin what is your take on earmarks?

P: Well John let me tell you that i will not be answering your quetsions as i will be sticking to my well rehearsed ……

Mc: Answer the fucking question you fucking jerk!

Mornin’ All,
E-Day minus 30 and all’s well in Camp Kid.

KL, dug the end of the Bill Maher clip when he mentioned that the new Pakistani president said that Yup-Yup Winkle-Moose had given him a fatwa:)

As for “Tumbledown” Bob Woodward having credibility, I dunno. A quick squiz at wiki will confirm that he shilled major for BushCo in the rush to war in Iraq.

Woodward believed the Bush Administration’s claims of Iraqi WMDs prior to the war. During an appearance on Larry King Live, he was asked by a telephone caller “Suppose we go to war and go into Iraq and there are no weapons of mass destruction,” Woodward responded “I think the chance of that happening is about zero. There’s just too much there.”[2]

Woodward has been accused by a few critics of being too close to the Bush administration, and some say his relationship with the current administration is in stark contrast to his investigative role in Watergate.

Like a lot of public figures well past their 15 minutes of fame and suffering recurrent bouts of Relevence Deprivation Syndrome, Bobby grew fat and old and lazy. For mine Bobby took the money and the prestige of hangin’ with The Imbecile so he could be strategically leaked to if not upon.

Bobby also savaged DoJ’s Paddy Fitzgerald who succesfully jailed that filthy little degenerate and mendacious scumbag (Torture Dick’s CoS before the odious Addington) “Scooter” Libby.

Woodward had referred to Fitzgerald as a “junkyard dog prosecutor” on Larry King’s television show, [5], and said he believed that when “all of the facts come out in this case, it’s going to be laughable because the consequences are not that great.”[6]. On another occasion, he said of the investigation that he thought there was “nothing to it,” and that Fitzgerald’s behavior had been “disgraceful.”

After viewing the Woodward/Maher clip it seems to me that Bobby is trading whatever skerrick of credibility he has left for a shot at financial redemption via his new book sales.

Until Bobby publicly recants on his roles in boosting the Iraq War on behalf of BushCo, and in the Valerie Plame Affair, I see him as just another grasping talking head. But you know me, KL, I’m a hard bastard with high-stakes hypocrites.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Woodward

EC – I remember now some of those problems with Woodward. Maybe he is just trying to increase book sales with the “highly classified techniques” stuff.

Yes, Ma’am. And the other thing that got up my nose about Woodward was the way Tumbledown Bob grinned like smarmy schoolkid at his BushCo “insider” status:

connotation:

“Well, over 4 thousand Americans have died and 20,000 are maimed and there are around a million dead and maimed Iraqi civilians and millions of Iraqi refugees and we spent trillions of taxpayer dollars to control the oil spigots but hey…….

Uncle Sammy has a new special secret weapon that I know about but none of you suckers will know about for decades.
Because I’m such a special lapdog.”

Makes you wonder about the timing and motive of Woodward’s ‘special secret weapons’ disclosure. Is he inadvertently upping the fear stakes,doing GOP’s bidding? Because sure as hell, they will play to McCain’s strongest suit of security/war, and there’s nothing like scattering a few verbal landmines to intimidate the burghers.

577
KatieLou

He sure gives Minnie Moose a good working over! A nice contrast to the gushing review that David Brooks gave her in the NYTimes. Imagine, a fine literate mind like Brook’s, applauding a candidate who mangles the English language while evading the question, and this is supposed to be the conservatives great white hope? What an appalling travesty of partisan grovelling Brooks can be at his worst.

Still, she makes great satire fodder, and Maher milks it beautifully.

579
KatieLou

From what I’ve read, the violence was dropping sharply BEFORE the surge due to al Qaeda overplaying its fundamentalist nutbaggery on the Iraqi Sunni who decided they could back the Yanks to get rid of them. (Fundamentalism like that of bin Laden was never a good fit with the largely secular Sunnis in the first place. But the thugs who masqueraded as al Qaeda in Iraq made a big mistake blowing up or kidnapping a few too many important Sheiks).

So the surge came along and took all the credit, but it’s not nearly that simple.

CHris @ 586

Tina Fey said at the Emmy’s that she doesn’t want to play the Palin character after the election. I hope she’ll be out of a job (well, the job of the Palin character).

Sat Oct.4:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=An0ENnaGBE0iJuFVxh54Or8V2r8F

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=82iO1bZuH0w

University Controlled Tests have revealed that apart from the Ronson cigarette lighter being able to remain alight in winds of up to 22.6 m.p. h., 71.9% of Americans live in regions that are not troubled topologically and would therefore benefit from using solar-powered or E-V cars more than citizens who live in hilly or mountainous zones:)
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/60785

KatieLou,
What a nasty piece of work he is…if indeed he is the composer of that letter.
Has all the hallmarks of a current VP’s mindset.

Obama ‘palling around’ with terrorists

REPUBLICAN vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin has taken the offensive, charging Democratic White House hopeful Barack Obama with “palling around with terrorists.”

Speaking at a fundraiser in Englewood, Colorado, Palin told supporters Obama “is someone who sees America it seems as being so imperfect that he’s palling around with terrorists who would target their own country.”

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24449292-2703,00.html

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