It has been clear for a long while now that the Democrats will increase their control of the US Senate, the question has always been by how much and can they reach the 60 votes required to win a vote on ‘cloture‘ and force though legislation. With several races in the bag and others that could go either way, I thought I would look at the races and state how likely it is that the Democrats will reach the magic number.
The Democrats currently control 51 seats in the 100 seat Senate. There are 35 senate elections occurring on November 4, 11 of which are considered competitive and 10 of those are currently held by the Republicans. The only Democratic seat in any danger is in Louisiana and is held by Mary Landrieu. The last poll conducted by a major polling organisation had her lead ballooning out to 53-37 on Aug 17, so she should now be safe.
The Republican seats that are almost certain to fall are Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia. Alaska is looking sure to fall as well, where Sen. Ted Stevens is not only likely to lose his seat, but is also at risk of crossing his Bridge only to discover that while Nowhere lacks basic amenities, it does have a jail cell. That gets the Democrats to 56.
The seats that are currently statistical ties are Minnesota and Oregon, with North Carolina’s last 3 polls being 48-42 Rep, 35-35 Tie and 51-45 Dem for a average of 42.67 each. In Mississippi Republican Roger Wicker has held a lead of about 48-43 for a couple of months while in Maine, Susan Collins looks sure to retain her seat.
Taking the optimistic view that the economic situation will help the Democrats, it therefore leaves the Senate line-ball on either 59 or 60. A more reserved outlook however would put the Democrats on 56.
There is also the question of Joe Lieberman. If the Senate becomes 56-44, there is a chance that he would be thrown out of the party. However if the result is 59-60 then the need to ensure his vote will see him remain. Lieberman will not leave himself, as that would lose him his positions on committees, including 3 chairmanships. The Democrat numbers also include Independent Socialist Bernie Sanders from Vermont, but there is not question that he will continue to causus with the Democrats.
857 replies on “The Senate: Democrat By How Much?”
Obama’s Ground Game
This is very interesting.
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/10/05/obamas_ground_game.html
COMMUNITY NOTICE
Fame, fortune and life adventure await those who publish on Politic 101. Follow the lead of Barack Obama, the best Presidential Candidate, and say to yourself “yes I can”. If you’re not sure how or you’re a little intimidated by this technology stuff – just let me know with a hint in a comment and I’ll open up a one-on-one channel to instant fame and fortune. Just email me your content and you will be on your way to celebrity status.
š
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/60808
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/60811
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/60812
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/60797
Talk is cheap;Bard advice is better
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/60803
Sssst, sssst, Ferny, your get out-of-spaminator-free card is available at 702 š
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-10-05-Clinton_N.htm
Poll: VP debate failed to boost John McCain.
The vice presidential debate has done nothing to inject new support for John McCainās White House challenge, according to the latest polls.
http://news.bostonherald.com/news/national/politics/2008/view.bg?articleid=1123674&srvc=home&position=active
Ta Ecky….does that mean I’d get to post links again without being binned??
Obama Surges Ahead in Florida.
A worldwide economic crisis can make a lot of difference to a voter. Or at least it has done to Isabelle Murawski. For the past two elections, the pensioner has reliably voted for George W Bush, casting her ballot in Florida’s Broward County, one of the epicentres of the voting debacle that saw Bush win the White House in 2000.
http://www.alternet.org/election08/101688/obama_surges_ahead_in_florida/
Ferny Grover at 706
Even I get binned from time to time – thing is that some of us have magical powers that allow us to go in a kick the monsters but.
š
One of the good things about the bruising primary battle is that the voters have heard all the Ayers, Rezco and Wright crap already, nothing new except its lipstick saying it.
My sense and hope is that the US voters will ignore this stuff because they want change (just like our voters ignored all the anti-rudd stuff)
The idea of Minnie Moose “attacking” Obama is rather amusing, and is going to make her look more like a typical Washington pollie than any kind of straight shooting hick or whatever her image is supposed to be.
Obama’s had Clinton do this to him and survived it easily, so why does Minnie Moose think she can do it again and get a different result?
Desperation, I guess.
Aye, Kirri, the desperation of the damned.
And then they began to eat their own…….
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=bjAQ-GMlVjU&eurl=http://thinkprogress.org/
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Ferny, our community spaminator is an equal opportunity discriminator and as Door Nazis go, a right proper bastard, despite it’s Nuremburgal bleatings that it was only doing its job. My understanding was that Cat was gonna toss you a spare key via email so you could release yourself on your own recognizance:)
That way a gent and a scholar like yourself could post multi-linked comments and spring them in a trice if netted, thereby enjoying the spontaneity that wit delayed can never provide.
Thanks for that Cat and Ecky! I better get busy and find my muse then! One must earn one’s keep.
Just reported on lateline that 7 of Palin’s employees will testify in troopergate probe. Apart from everything else that is bad about Palin, why would you chose someone in the middle of an ethics probe??
cnn link
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/05/palin.probe/index.html
Yep Andrew, they can probe all they like. They’re not likely to locate any ethics there.
Q. Why would you choose someone in the middle of an ethics enquiry?
A. Because McCain is a Tomcat.
Andrew released at 714.
http://i133.photobucket.com/albums/q66/carmike692000/Music/CD%20Covers/MarkKnopfler_TheRagpickersDream.jpg
“Auf Wiedersehen, Pet, be back soon as Iāve got us a quid.”
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=InAGSYD26EQ
it’s a great album Ecky….though I have to say that dear ol’ Mark hasn’t put out a decent album since. His descent into rockabilly (a-la the woeful “Shangri La”) is….regrettable.
Yeah, Ferny, “Devil Baby” does me in every time. M.K’s done some great support work with the likes of Sonny Landreth (Blue Tarp Blues) on his recent CD about the aftermath of Katrina. I understand he’s been domiciled in Nashville TN since the time he did another top shelf album, “Neck to Neck”, with Chet Atkins in the eighties. If you caught the Robert Altman movie, then maybe ~20 years in Nashville could be a tad too long for a Jordy lad in search of creative inspiration. Never met him, don’t really know. Saw him on telly once working up close and hands-on with disabled kids. He’s a pretty special human being.
Et voila, mesdames et Monsieurs, zee latest polls. Do believe Mistah “Twinkletoes” Brown expresses rather well how I feel about them:)
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=XgDrJ5Z2rKw&feature=related
http://demfromct.dailykos.com/
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Palin steals Madeleine Albright quote from Starbucks cup, mangles the quote and pisses off Madeleine Albright.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/05/palin-misquotes-albright_n_131967.html
Who would have thought Sarah Palin was a Starbucks liberal? No cup of joe from Dunkin’ Donuts for Yup-Yup. What an elitist.
Now KR, about the Aussie Battler….not such a good buy @ 0.83 afterall. it could be 1.05 by the end of the month, but is more likely to be 0.55 by next week.
Obama Maintains Lead in the National Polls
http://www.electoral-vote.com
http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/shared-blogs/ajc/politicalinsider/entries/2008/10/06/another_poll_this_one_says_the.html
Has Barack Obama taken Pennsylvania out of play?
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/10/has-barack-obam.html
Politics and Palin lure viewers to “SNL”
http://www.reuters.com/article/industryNews/idUSTRE4953TT20081006
Michelle Obama to Hit āDaily Showā
Michelle Obama will make her first appearance on āThe Daily Show with Jon Stewartā on Wednesday.
http://washingtonindependent.com/10524/michelle-obama-to-hit-the-daily-show
Election 2008: Can small turnout gains tip Southern elections?
http://southernstudies.org/facingsouth/labels/538.com.asp
Gā day Gang . My, arenāt we all looking chipper this morning. After the headlines and polls about the intertubes todayā¦ā¦ā¦stone the bloody crows! Ya wouldnāt be dead for quids.
Lest any of us doubt the strategic campaign genius of Steve āSchmuckensā Schmidt, hereās proof writ large in the Times of L.A.
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-schmidt6-2008oct06,0,555417.story
And Bomb-Bomb has resorted to the dreaded āpants on fireā tactic in an attempt to excoriate that uppity Senatorial upstart from Illinois, you know wassisname, that madrassa educated Hoo-Sane guy.
Wonder if this means that the GOPper āMaverick of All Mavericksā will have to actually look at Mr. Pal Around With Terrorists during the course of the second debate?
723
blindoptimist
Nup, the run on the USD is quite amazing.( But my call was at 79 cents, and although I didn’t buy, there was a very good trade in there for anyone who was quick.)
Some of the sudden dump on the AUD is the expectation of our rates falling, but the biggest move is because hedge funds are getting their goolies crushed in resources and so falling commodities is driving our buck south. Also, there’s a shortage of USD (it’s a credit crunch, after all! LOL), so there’s a bit of buying up for those needing USD.
The gyrations are spectacular, but even though I haven’t taken a close look yet, I’d have to reckon our dollar has been oversold. (When gold gets a 4% overnight you suspect the USD is soon to take some lumps.)
One thing is certain any screams form the “big business” end of town in this election about socialism or liberalism etc will certainly be ignored. If they do raise their head maybe the voters will do the opposite?
McCain forced to defend North Carolina.
continued..
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14304.html
733 Chris B That article makes great reading.
Palin ‘trying to keep Fey in business’
Well at least she has a sense of humour if nothing else going for her.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14312.html
Martin Closes In On Senate Seat.
More on Georgia.
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/10/06/martin_closes_in_on_senate_seat.html
Obama expands North Carolina lead.
Isn’t it a great day? Haven’t seen any concern trolls in a while.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_100625.pdf
732
Chris B
The big end of town is the one with the begging bowl out CB, and aren’t in the slightest concerned what you call it: bailout, socialism or corporate welfare, they just want the money, and quickly.
Oddly, it’s the far right joining forces with the far left who find this Paulsen plan sticking in their throats. Just another little irony, huh?
FCUK!
McCain will be pulling his team out of here shortly! Circle the wagons!
http://suffolk.edu/31220.html
I can’t decide whether Al Gore should be in charge of the environment or Internet and media, or whatever that is. Strategically, the later would be the best.
Makes you wanna weep:
āI wake up every single night thinking what I could have done differently,ā Mr. Fuld said, adding, āThis is a pain that will stay with me the rest of my life.ā
…Lehman Brothers CEO. The 350 milllion bucks he ‘earned’ since 2000 will also stay with him too, so maybe we shouldn’t be too concerned for the poor man, eh?
His other good line was how was he to know that the subprime mortgage market was going to cause this much damage to financial markets?
If he really didn’t have a clue, then why was he paid $350m to ‘run’ the company? LOL
I REALLY, REALLY hope Obama has a national TV campaign for the last 2-3 weeks. That would be the icing on the cake, and really demoralising for the Republicans. I suspect a lot will stay home, in spite of Palin.
Everything looks excellent for Obama, and I cannot see a mechanism by which McCain can turn this around, as there is nothing on the calendar. Four weeks may be a long time in politics, but I suspect that it is going to both seem an eternity and a microsecond for McCain and his team …
Someone mentioned a while back about me altering my prediction of 298 EVs. Well, I cannot retrospectively alter it: that was my prediction. However, I will say that my prediction will, according to current polling – and polls are what I go by, after all – turn out to be significantly in error on the downside. š
Latest State Rasmussen polls care of RCP:
Ohio Obama 47, McCain 48 McCain +1
Florida Obama 52, McCain 45 Obama +7
Virginia Obama 50, McCain 48 Obama +2
Colorado Obama 51, McCain 45 Obama +6
Missouri Obama 50, McCain 47 Obama +3
He’s leading in Missouri??!
BTW, it looks like on PollBludger that the vitriol against Obama from the Hillary supporters is increasing almost in lockstep with McCain ramping up his negative campaign.
Man, they don’t know how to take a defeat gracefully, do they?
“The best candidate is not even in the race…” *sigh*
Gee’s you don’t know how hard it is running the Democrats campaign from this side of the world. But the boys are responding well, and everything’s going to plan. š
Mornin’ all!
Intrade is doing the splits again after yesterday’s shenanigans:
Obama – 68.5 Whasisname – 31.6
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/07/2383695.htm
I am willing to bet that the majority of the political movies will be left leaning. They might exert some small influence on some centrist undecideds. At the very least, they will be some free anti-Bush/anti-Republican advertising.
743
David Gould
Having taken a little wager some time ago that Obama would get over 300 EV’s, I’m happy to believe you initially “misunderestimated” DG! LOL
Oh ya just gotta laugh some days doncha!
Today’s release of the Keating 5 video is gonna have dear ol Grumpy McFart in a real tiz come debatin’ day. The Kid’ll need to wear a rain coat to avoid the fury n’ spittle.
And if little Minnie Moose wants to vomit up Rev Wright again, I’d reckon some more videos from her own witch-huntin’, demon-chasin’ tongues-speakin’, creationist-spruikin’ neck of the ecclesiastical woods would turn up some very newsworthy nostrums from the lunatic fringe of Christendom.
Have a look at the vulnerable senate seats on votemaster.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Senate/Maps/Oct06-s.html
Here is the Keating 5 documentary. Rate it, favourite and pass it on. Email it to friends. This can change a vote. Do your bit. Email it to 5 friends or more. PLEASE. PLEASE. PLEASE.
We CAN change the world.
A short shorter version of that, and another ad with McCain giving Georgie Boy lots of hugs, will be a great way to kick off a national advertising campaign.
Oh bugger! If your going to ask people to send on a link Chris, you had better post it! Alzheimer’s!
The Keating 5 video.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=IDofbll86dY&feature=iv&annotation_id=event_922988
Krugman, in today’s NYTimes, agrees with McCain:
In short, the McCain plan makes no sense at all, unless you have faith that the magic of the marketplace can solve all problems. And Mr. McCain does: a much-quoted article published under his name declares that āOpening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation.ā
I agree: the McCain plan would do for health care what deregulation has done for banking. And Iām terrified.
….LOL, another ‘endorsement’ (NOT)!
For a decade or more, we’ve been promised an electoral transformation: Younger voters, minorities, and women will prevail over the older, conservative majority. Is this the year the predictions come true?
http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=five_questions_about_the_new_electorate
This is an email I received about an hour ago.
Chris —
John McCain wants you to forget about his role in our country’s last major financial crisis and costly bailout: the savings and loan crisis of the late ’80s and early ’90s.
But voters deserve to know that the failed philosophy and culture of corruption that created the savings and loan crisis then are alive in the current crisis — and in John McCain’s plans for our economic future.
We just released a short documentary about John McCain’s role in that financial crisis — watch it now and share it with your friends:
http://my.barackobama.com/keatingvideo
Voters should know the facts about John McCain’s poor judgment — judgment that has twice placed him on the wrong side of history.
Please forward this email to everyone you know.
Thanks,
David
David Plouffe
Campaign Manager
Obama for America
This advertisement and the combined effect of the Internet and the huge campaign that the Democrats have run with the Internet community. This will turn out to CLOSE being one of the biggest viral messages ever!
Game set and match Mr. Barack Obama. USA
Meant to say “to be close to being”.
Just in case anyone wants to take me to task over that statement. š
How about this from the ultra Republican ‘Election-projection’ site:
“Monday, October 6, 2008
Weekly Election Projection Update:
President: Did you hear that swoosh sound coming from Election Projection last week? No, it wasn’t the mortgage crisis. That noise was the bottom falling out for John McCain. The GOP nominee trailed Barack Obama by just 8 electoral votes in last week’s update. During the week however, state after state shed its redness in favor of a more azure shade. On Tuesday, Florida and Nevada switched from red to blue. On Wednesday, Virginia slid into Obama’s column, followed by Ohio on Thursday and North Carolina on Friday. And Missouri rounds out McCain’s collapse by bolting this morning.
All in all, McCain lost a projected six states this week worth a staggering 91 electoral votes. His EV deficit ballooned from eight to 180 as he now trails Obama 364-174. Possibly the best news surrounding this week’s major shift for the Obama camp is that there’s nothing obvious on the horizon which presents McCain with an opportunity to substantially alter the playing field. If there is a ray of hope, it is in the fact that seven states are within 5 points right now. These “Weak Obama Gains” represent enough electoral votes that they would give him enough votes to win the presidency were they to find their way back into McCain’s camp.
Therein lies the dilemma. There is no margin for error. As it stands now, McCain will have to run the table and win all seven of these battleground states – which he currently trails. That’s a very tall order. This race is not over, but it must be nice to be sitting in Obama’s position this morning.”
see electionprojection.com
Oi! My names been shortened! It’s the WordPress version of a haircut!!
A letter from America that’s still pertinent today:
As Alistair Cooke observed, āAmericans seem to be more comfortable with Republican presidents because they share the common frailty of muddled syntax and because, when they attempt eloquence, they do tend to spout a kind of Frontier Baroque.ā
(quote by MoDo in the NYtimes)
So, that’s what Minnie Moose spouts: “Frontier Baroque”
I’m glad there’s a name for it! LOL
It’s like the Geelong Port Adelaide grand final from last year. Three Quarter time, with no injuries. Can still afford a couple of broken legs. But in this case the Democrats still have a fit Nathan Buckley and James Hird sitting on the bench! š
I see the markets are in freefall again today. And poor ol Dubya is bleating away that the Bailout hasn’t had time to work yet. In reply to His Chimpness’ upbeat appraisal, the Market collectively said:
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Must be time for Bailout Mk II?!
Sadly the Aussie is disappearing into the abyss as well. Time to give eBay a miss for a while.
Here’s a link to the Republican Election Projection, maybe we could even put a link to it on our site!
http://www.electionprojection.com
Ferny de Fronded; coulda been a French philosopher with a handle like that:)
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Mon Oct 6:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/patoliphant;_ylt=Ah0jqY6emGBSVyJCKT1OIuTe.sgF
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Doublethinkers often encounter difficulties when comtemplating the subleties of the separation of church and state.
http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/31328
Not that Holy Mother Church ever pals around with Partys of Death, or any of that sort of thing.
http://www.nobeliefs.com/images/hitler_cardinal4.jpg
764
ferny
yeah, it must be getting close to complete capitulation. I saw that 494 stocks on the S&P 500 were down at one stage last night…and that’s a pretty rare sight. If it wasn’t for the massive moonshot the US markets got towards close it would have been bye bye, toodle pip, and all over red rover today. As is, we are only (only! LOL) down another couple of percent.
Just had a look at pollbludger.
Glad I’m not posting there anymore.
The rabid delusional usual suspects are still there spouting their ignorance.
They are so out of touch with reality and never seem to learn from their past mistakes. Instead they have resorted to bitter mudslinging.
Just like the republicans.
Remember last year when the size of Howard’s problem could be summarized with one little graph:
http://possumcomitatus.files.wordpress.com/2007/05/howardsproblem101.jpg
I’ve found one for McCains problem:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2008/10/demstatespread.png
Although the rest of the article might help describing it:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/10/07/the-jaundiced-view-intrade-polling-confluence/
Where is Jaundiced View BTW? Haven’t seen him anywhere for yonks.
Well Ferny, things could be worse…just look at Iceland (that’s if you can still find it! In an equivalent to global warming, the economic meltdown has all but melted them away):
Iceland is paying the price for an economic boom of recent years that saw its newly affluent companies go on an acquisition spree across Europe and its banking sector grow to dwarf the rest of the economy. Bank assets are nine times annual gross domestic product of euro 14 billion ($25 billion).
Investors are now punishing the whole country for the banking sector’s heavy exposure to the global credit squeeze – its currency has gone through the floor, imports have fallen and inflation is soaring.
SMH
…and now are facing national bankruptcy.
The numbers at the moment for Obama are in record-breaking territory. My political hero, FDR’s 1933 Democrat win record is seriously under threat.
The markets are in freefall and the people are panicked. To counter this threat McCain will start seriously addressing the issues of concern to the electorate, thus re-establishing his credibility and restoring confidence in his ability to govern with wisdom and compassion.
NAH! Let’s just chuck mud instead – it’s easier. So while Grandpa and Minnie indulge in shadow mud wrestling, the markets take yet another dive and the people’s confidence plummets. McCain’s answer? More mud! Even if it’s old mud – Ayers, Rezko & Wright. Some’s gotta stick, right??
Yep John – but it’s stickin’ to you!
So while The Kid rides the market hurricane to a record win, the same ill-winds are blowing the GOP mud back onto their candidate. Trouble for Johnny is that he’s also carrying 8 years worth of Bush mud. So now, whenever he speaks, all you can see is a mountain of crap. And every time he chucks another dirt ball, the mountain gets bigger and he gets buried some more.
Keep throwin’ em’ Sarah. Keep throwin’ em. WINK.
Good morning team
We seem to be winning don’t we? It’s quite fun at PB as you have noted. There’s an awful lot of sour grapes and dummy-spitting going on. They’re just realising that the Obamabots have been right all along and that we’re going to win. The word “Schadenfreude” comes to mind. And yes, there will be blood!
Gee, $850bn doesn’t buy much of a bailout these days. Chuck another couple trillion in, that oughta do it.
756 – Chris B
The right wing fundamentalist nutbag days are numbered.
Everything is against them.
Dubya will be remembered as one of the worst US presidents ever (if not the worst) who has led them down the path of disaster in foreign and economic matters.
It has come to the stage that the republican brand is so sullied, McCain has to run as a ‘maverick’.
Demographically, the right wingers are stuffed. Their brand is aimed at older conservatives, fundamentalists, and ignorant gun toting rednecks.
They are becoming increasingly less significant with more education and science, less religion and losing their economic credentials.
More of the right wing voter base is dying off too, and the young educated vote is predominantly left-wing.
One only has to look at the current Australian Liberal party which is headed well down the track of obscurity thanks to the right wing corruption and incompetence of Howard. They will need to retrack way back to the centre to try and regain some relevance.
Picking Sarah Palin, another rabid right wing fundamentalist nutbag is just the Republicans going down the ‘Bridge to Nowhere’.
Out of touch and soon obsolete.
Good riddance.
I wonder if that will force Iceland into the European Union and the Euro? They have been reluctant till now. Maybe even the UK will be forced into the Euro. š
What are going to be the implications for Obama in office? It is going to be a very tough time.
773 asanque Dubbya is equal first as the worst president ever on 22%. Just the time to run national TV advertisements with McCain giving him a hug. š
Re my 771 – FDR’s record win was in 1932 – oops
775 David Gould The debt is double what it was in the great depression, only unlike then you just have to cancel a few war planes and a couple of warships.
Yep DG – it’s not a good time to be President. Obama will have no money and a huge mess to clean up. It will take all of his skill and intelligence – and more.
I’m sure he’ll be channeling FDR – who showed in similar, yet even worse, circumstances – YES.WE.CAN
Apparantly, Europe could be in a worse position than the US. Spain is apparantly completely screwed and they may drag down France and Italy with them, which would tip Europe into something approaching a depression.
F22 Raptor price tag $200 million.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F-22_Raptor
780 David Gould The implications of that would be huge. It would force countries into the European Union and the Euro that have been reluctant. Ireland might even change it’s mind on the treaty it rejected with very little persuasion. Countries that are out of the Union would be vulnerable such as Norway Iceland and Switzerland (huge in the banking sector). Countries that aren’t in the Euro will be forced in UK, Sweden and Denmark, who ever thought the George would help defeat the forces of conservatism throughout the world!
This would be the perfect opportunity for Gordon Brown to use the Euro to split the Conservative Party! By showing the public that staying out of the Euro is dangerous for the economy.
Anyone up for a thread header to lead us into Tuesday’ debate?
——————————————-
AUD dropped to 70 cents but has rebounded with resolve to flicker proudly around 72 cents moments ago.
If countries in the EU are in just as bad a position as countries outside it, I do not see the argument for a country outside to join it. In other words, if being in the EU has not protected Spain, why would Iceland want to join?
Note: I am a big fan of the EU. It is going to be a superpower and a force for reducing world suffering once it truly gets its act together – roughly 30 years.
I doubt it will take 30 years DG. With the US hegemony on the decline I have a feeling the EU will increasingly fill the gap. The next decade will see the rise of the EU as a world power.
And our market is back up to just 1% down.
Can you feel the de-coupling?
Mind you, people are going to wake up when the banks try and hold back as much as the Reserve gives ’em! Funny to watch the Ruddsters trying to stop the playground Turnbully picking on the Big Four, isn’t it? The party of the workers giving the party of free enterprise one in the eye over bank profits.
Gotta laugh really! LOL
ferny,
Europe is already a superpower. The next decade will see it rise. But it will not peak for 30 years. And then comes China and India.
The Turnbully has got the politics right on this one Kirri – and it will become a bigger stouch over the next couple of days when the banks keep the rate drop in their greedy little pockets – and hide behind a Labor PM when doing so.
It’s a topsy-turvey ol’ world ‘aint it!
Ah DG – now I understand your thinking. I’m not sure I’d call the EU a superpower just yet. They still have many internal issues to deal with and, politically, don’t often act like a nation – albeit a multicultural one. There are still many internal divisions that need sorting – which I expect the next decade to bring.
790
ferny
Sure is that, ferny!
But I don’t think Turnbully has it all his way on this, especially if you look at LIBOR’s historic high. Let’s not forget, our banks MUST borrow on international markets at extremely high rates if you’d like to see our mortgage industry not freeze up.
But essentially it’s a commercial decision, and just like the government does not comment on the RBA’s rate decisions, it really has no authority over this either. If you don’t like your mortgage rate, find a cheaper provider is the real answer. (Yeah, where?)
It’s a silly political game, and if Turnbully thinks he’s hit the populist bulls-eye with this one, he may be in for a rude shock when the bankers turn on him and start giving him the facts of life.(Not that he doesn’t know them, but it’s like the petrol excise, he was against it long before he was for it! LOL)
786 David Gould Couldn’t agree more. Except on the time period.
If your interested in reading more try these.
One first article is on Iceland and the EU (promise I hadn’t read it).
I haven’t looked at it ages, to busy on US politics.
http://euobserver.com
http://www.eubusiness.com
http://www.eupolitix.com
All good web sites.
“Itās a topsy-turvey olā world āaint it!”
No arguments on that one here:)
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/60841
David I’ve missed it, but why is Spain in trouble?
Diogenes out at 772.
Great to see you, concur wholeheartedly with your comments
Far too much reign on the plain, Chris.
Yep Ecky – Red is blue and the White House black;
Keynes is in; socialism trumps capitalism so long as it’s called a bailout (not of the punters mind you – but of the Big End of Town – and there’s the difference from The New Deal) – and Rudd is speaking up for the banks while Turnbull is the voice of working families.
My head hurts.
Maybe I should write the next Header.
Spain was already in serious trouble before all this. The housing market there has completely collapsed. They have been trying to prop up some institutions since July/August, and that was before all this hit. They are stuffed without some major help.