I am no psephologist, but as the owner of one of those V-thingies, I have had a particular interest in the women in this election. Sadly, with one exception, they have shamed my gender and behaved in general as if they have one of those P-thingies instead.
Hillary – the Great White hope. Before this election got interesting I hoped and assumed that Hillary would trounce the republicans and we would see a woman in the White House. As an avowed feminist this was pleasing indeed and seemed to make this election a trailblazer for that reason alone. Anything to see the end of George the Imbecile, and what better way to turn the tables on neo-conservatism than to see a democrat woman as POTUS.
She is charismatic, confident, assured and knowledgeable. It turns out she is also rabidly ambitious and prepared to play dirty to that end. I was amazed at some of the stunts she pulled , the fake accents, the lies about her foreign affairs experience and worse, her preparedness to smear Obama when the Primary race got tight. Hillary believed that she had an entitlement to be back in The White House and she dragged it out to the bitter end, which was damaging for the party, and ultimately herself.
Then there’s the Stepford wives. Cindy McCain who has behaved like a handbag: an attractive accessory (if you like plastic), with not much content. She has conducted herself like all good wives from the 50’s should – well groomed, and silently supporting her man. Who knows what she really thinks? She represents a thankfully bygone era where a woman’s only public role was to be seen to support her man. Even when he has publicly humiliated her and called her a “Stupid C-nt”. If she had divorced him and spoken out against abuse of women she would be deserving of admiration. Instead she relies on his success for her identity. Not the kind of role model I want for my daughters.
And the First Lady – Laura . I actually feel sorry for her – after all she sleeps with George every night, so she is punished enough and in an act of sisterly solidarity I shall harm her no more.
My favourite anti-hero of this election is of course Sarah Palin. Not much I can say that hasn’t been said, and nothing anyone can say that betters Tina Fey. She will become a symbol of all that is loathed about the American Character – an arrogant, brash, ignorant, fundamentalist who does not have the intelligence to know that she isn’t. But she is also frightening – a juxtaposed “I can do anything” feminist persona overlaying a basic narrowness that is determined to undo some of the rights that women have fought and even died for – most particularly the right to choose whether to proceed with an unplanned pregnancy. This in my view makes her one of the most dangerous female politicians in the public arena today. Whatever your personal view on abortion is, it is not her right to impose hers on all American women. It’s bad enough that she’s doing it to Bristol.
Then onto the stage strides Michelle Obama. A woman of intelligence and style. A woman who clearly supports her husband but has her own views on matters of public policy. A mother and partner who has a successful career. A woman who can talk and think for herself. And an African American who must know first hand what it means to live in a country which has not reached it’s potential, but may in fact be about to. This is a role model for my daughters, and for all of us who aspire to see women in public life reflect the best of us.
Frankly – I wish she was VP.
1,370 replies on “Obama for VP”
I know DG, who’d have thought it eh?
It’s perfectly OK Spammy. and so is everything else you said – apart from the chocolate baby food thing.
And even though I abhor viscious gossip and rumour mongering… do you reckon it’s true that TRig is really Bristol’s baby?
In which case that means she is pregnant for the SECOND time- so much for abstinence.
Tart.
Jen,
I loved the Stepford wives analogy – your post about Sarah Palin’s daughter @ 203 less so. I don’t think she is fair game and actually I feel sorry for her with a Mother that preaches abstinence and no choice.
True Grace. I am really having a go at Palin’s hypocricy. You are right about Bristol – and i absolutely feel sorry for her too 😳
203
tart – lol
Who know’s? I was reading comments on Huff and the gossip seemed heavily slanted toward that idea. Next came abortion and then depression and or Bi-polar disorder.
Not many takers for addiction surprisingly
We should run a contest 😉
Jen @ 205
I figured you would.
cheers
Sara, I took jens “tart” comment the way I think it was intended,
in jest
jesus, I’m having a shocker today!!
I mean’t Grace, not sara..
It was Spammy, but it was in poor taste.
speaking of which…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/19/family-guy-nazis-back-mcc_n_136039.html
(thanks Grace – felt bad the moment I posted it…)
Sheez Spammy – calling Grace ‘Sara’ has got to be way worse than anything I’ve done. 😈
169 David Gould Considering the polls are under valuing Obama by about 5%, it should be a shoe in.
Geez Spam Box …. Sara indeed. I may live in the north but I’ve never shot anything in my life!
ROFL!!!
I was thinking the same thing!!!… but I’d made such a mess of it I figured just get the retraction out fast man!… lol
Trying to do too many things at once, that’s it, the kids can go hungry, I’m concentrating on my blogs
What can I say GRACE?… I’m very very sorry
Chris B,
Just five per cent? You’ve become a pessimist on me, Chris … 😉
Well, we know Spam Box is a moral vacuum, so anything they do should not surprise us …
196
jen, Hillary won the Indiana primary 38 delegates to 34.
WOW! THIS IS A SURPRISE! DID ANYBODY ELSE KNOW THIS? THE POLLS ARE INACCURATE. SURPRISE! SURPRISE!
Study of Cell-Only Households
Here’s the link for those that missed the article.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Oct18.html
Then you add in Anne Selzers figures. Bingo! About 5%.
Chris B,
And this exact claim was made prior to 2004: youth will turn out in record numbers, and the polls are not counting them.
Guess what? Youth indeed turned out in record numbers, yet the average of the polls got Bush’s winning margin pretty close to exactly right …
Wow, jen, what a brilliant discussion you’ve got going on your thread. Sensational stuff, mon ami!
🙂
Below is from the condescending war-mongering booster from PNAC who is playing that he just doesn’t get why the “vulgus” (read: those not from Billy Kristol’s social mileau) are going to whup neoconservative butt come E-Day.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/20/opinion/20kristol.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
The man is certifiable, full tilt boogie Yarra!
Gouldie at 183:
<97 per cent is probably understating it a little …
You’re a wicked, wicked man, David.
🙂
Mon Oct 20;
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/thequigmans;_ylt=Aq_9j1TK_lc_vzxuajm1WIkl6ysC
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/61480
While one certainly takes the point of the cartoon, reckon there are many more Merkan voters who want to be part of History and celebrate their votes, and the act of doing so like those black ladies on the bus the other day with friends and family, than will slacken-off and backslide at the last moment. Obi’s War Room havn’t spent the last two years getting this close to have Obi’s ground-gamers goof off in the the final thrust to victory.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tonyauth;_ylt=AhzHQ7EsYGlh5ej1KIFAJVgl6ysC
Sun Oct 19:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/billday;_ylt=Aq3EulB8xL8ZnIVdCboPsz0l6ysC
Mon Oct 20:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/doonesbury;_ylt=Aro1QPpf.YFyWG1zBpvBn0ZX_b4F
Sun Oct 19:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=Ambs9OFFNIY95.zGwWx4TrRJ_b4F
Gee, that’s a surprise! David disputing them. Well I never would have imagined that!
219-221
Whilst knowing nothing about polling, I would have thought that with all the weighting for this and that the pollsters do, surely they’d weight for that as well
Further, the article specifically talks about how Gallup and some other pollsters are surveying cell phone users (a point that I have raised before). This is in fact how they work out the 2-3 per cent effect. But this effect is already being taken into account in those pollsters. Thus, while some pollsters may be underestimating, most good pollsters will not be. They will weight their likely voter scenario accordingly.
Spam Box at 224,
Exactly. Good pollsters tend to actually know stuff about polling …
224 Spam Box Not properly. Anne Selzer has been the most accurate. She has provided evidence that other pollsters are not doing the right weighting.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings
But David ignores the ongoing evidence, provided.
Fair enough GWV – I was thinking he meant the Primary.
Spam Box Ann Selzer on incorrect weighting.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/essential-difference.html
Here is how the cell phones numbers have changed since 2004.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/no_20081014_1266.php
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/61466
http://www.faulkingtruth.com/Articles/GlobalWarning/1024.html
Chris B,
I may indeed be ignoring things. However, you are ignoring, for example, the fact that Gallup does indeed poll cellphones and so any boost for Obama from that source would already be included in their polling …
On Selzer being the most accurate, this accuracy weighting is based on fewer than 20 polls, whereas Rasmussen’s – for example – is based on around 90.
Basically, we disagree on this, Chris. 🙂
Its all explained in the article David.
I read it. Did you read the part about pollsters actually polling cellphones?
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/no_20081014_1266.php
$150 million.
Donation Record as Colin Powell Endorses Obama.
May need to be registered.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/20/us/politics/20campaign.html?ref=us
Chris B,
And Gallup use the cellphone data in their bottom line numbers. So there is no problem with Gallup, wouldn’t you agree? 🙂
Heavy Voter Turn Out Nationwide Could Cause Delays at Polls.
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5&docID=news-000002976666
Weighting does cause margin of error problems, but over many polls these margin of error issues should smooth out.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/07/cellphone-problem-revisited.html
From the comments section:
“Nate said…
Becky,
The problem I’m addressing here is not necessarily that the poll is biased in one or the other direction. If the pollster is smart enough about how they weight their responses — and Scott Rasmussen is smart — they may be able to work around the bias problems. But in the process of conducting this weighting, the pollster increases the margin of error above and beyond its theoretical value.”
Obama Assembles U.S.’s `Largest Law Firm’ to Monitor Election.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=a.hk4HvCkpiE&refer=home
Legal battles unfolding in Ohio, Indiana and Wisconsin provide fresh evidence of the potential fights to come over ballot access in an election marked by unprecedented spending to increase the number of voters in strategically important states.
Whoops!
This from Texas which is supposed to be to expensive to advertise in?
Huge fund raising lead helps Obama saturate every medium.
Bloody hell. India with a lead of over 500 runs, seven wickets in hand and 4 1/2 sessions to play …
“There is something terrifying in the fact that a sweeping presidential power that is rejected even by an early advocate of the unitary executive is now accepted by four of the nine Supreme Court justices. Add a fifth justice to them, and the Constitution will be under the severest siege in its history. There can be no higher stakes.
Garry Wills
—October 7, 2008”
Russell Baker
David Bromwich
Mark Danner
Andrew Delbanco
Joan Didion
Ronald Dworkin
Frances FitzGerald
Timothy Garton Ash
Paul Krugman
Joseph Lelyveld
Darryl Pinckney
Thomas Powers
Michael Tomasky
Garry Wills
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/22017
I’m assuming the idea is if everybody used limited public funding, this will stop the richest guy getting an advantage(good thing, yeah?) but the use of private funding is good because, well, candidates don’t blow millions of taxpayers $(good thing, yeah?)
If you accept public $ then thats it, you don’t get to use anything else
Is that right?
Did BO somehow lie about this? ( I haven’t got time to research all this right now, I decided to feed the kids after all 😉
But a visitor just asked me these questions
247
Bloody hell. India with a lead of over 500 runs, seven wickets in hand and 4 1/2 sessions to play …
Oh dear…..Well what can I say but JAI INDIA!!!!!
Sorry DG, I don’t know what came over me.
It must have been all those long, languid evenings. Strolling along the parapets at the Taj. 🙂
Obama certainly broke his pledge.
But a ruthless politico such as me applauds such an action. Why throw away a huge advantage when there is no requirement to do so? Principles? Pah. Obama and I agree that they some at least are expendable.
India have declared. Australia need 515 to win – yeah, right – or, more realistically although still very unlikely, they need to bat for 4 sessions plus 30-odd minutes.
Is there a Dean Jones of Australia anywhere on the sub-continent today?
DG.. ok, thats 1.. but was all the rest of that sorta kinda right or was it wrong?. (in general)
I honestly have NFI. (plus cooking Thai seafood curry thingo, very distracted right now)
Spam Box,
Yes, you are correct – with caveats.
The main problem as I see it is that limits on campaign funding seem to make no difference, as third-party groups can pretty much spend as they wish.
My preferred solution would be a ban on third-party advertising for the six weeks prior to any election, plus an equal, relatively limited, division of time on all mediums across the country over that same period.
I probably would not get the advertiser vote …
Of course, the other option is to permit a complete free-for-all, on the theoretical basis that the money will be split relatively to support levels and thus reflect the will of the people.
Hussey, perhaps, could be this tour’s Dean Jones.
248
That’s not just a simple link Ecky.
That’s the full monty.
A veritable 14 course banquet that will keep me
off the streets and away from doing the dishes for hours. 😀
Many thanks!
EC @ 248 – Right on EC
“Should McCain prevail, the less than amazing prospect is for contin-uation of the elder generation’s favorite causes: bellicose efforts to bring democracy to the whole world and adding ever more conservatives to the Supreme Court. Ms. Palin could be the next Nixon.”
Even if Obi can’t achieve as much as he wants to in the way of change to the dominant paradigm of other entrenched US domestic systems, it is worth its weight in kryptonite that he will be in a position to appoint for the next 4 or 8 years Supreme Court judges to the political left of the bull sharks Bush has been appointing for the past 8 years. The balance of the Court is at such a critical point that it doesn’t bear thinking about if just one more of those shameless legal extremists gets appointed by a McCain/Palin administration. That in itself will justify yet another glass of fine red wine on 5 November should the Kid deliver. 🙂
Obama forces the pace of change in Dixieland
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/19/obama-democrats-carolina-charlotte
Even in Texas.
The presidential ticket
The Chronicle endorses Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president of the United States.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/politics/recommendations/6065490.html
From the other point of view.
http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Story.asp?Article=232247&Sn=WORL&IssueID=31214
Democrats hope to follow Dallas’ lead with a sweep.
Harris County GOP is wary of losing its all-Republican courts.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/6067550.html
Right-wing American voters
http://www.teambio.org/2008/10/17/right-wing-stupid/
Latest polls:
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/10/19/tracking_poll_update.html
———————————————
Yes, jv, habeas corpus, the Geneva Convention of War, and the threatened reversal of Roe V Wade are not trifling matters. Change at the top is essential if the uber-authoritarian slant of BushCo’s criminal lawyers (Yoo, Addington, Norquist, Gonzales et al.) is to be halted.
Barry taught U.S. Constitutional Law at Harvard. Reckon he knows what’s at stake too. How refreshing it will be to have a POTUS who isn’t an Imbecile.
——————————
Hush up, child, and come in off the street at once!!
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/61424
Atwater Rove Bounds & Schmidt: Gravediggers
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/61440
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/61473
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/61464
Three wickets for the Turbinator … And Hussey is among them.
Three wickets in one over, by the way …
And now Ponting has been bowled … Shit.
Just what Obi gon’ do to the GOPpers, Gouldie!
——————————
Pursuant to matters discussed at comments # 248 and #259:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=5oao-Aj8X3o
Watson gone. Bit of a rough decision – probably a touch too high. But it’s in the scorebook …
And Billy Kristol is still saying that the voters are misguided… is this guy serious or a well-paid troll?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/20/opinion/20kristol.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
Zogby poll booms for Obama: a six-point lead.
Not that I pay much attention to Zogby …
Here is the link:
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE49J0LF20081020
Just in case you missed it.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-campaign20-2008oct20,0,3395376.story
Obama to visit Florida on Monday and Tuesday to encourage early voting.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/campaign-2008/story/733028.html
David Gould at 137
Morals are the things you believe deep down at a given point in time.
Ethics are morals of a transient majority imposed upon you at a given point in time.
271
jen
is this guy serious or a well-paid troll?
He’s a seriously well paid troll Jen. 🙁
Ailing U.S. economy may cost Republicans big.
http://www.reuters.com/article/vcCandidateFeed2/idUSN1747427620081020
Ecky@223- sorry -just realsied that you had posted Kristol’s Krap way before me – must have been serving a customer or something.
And yes – d’accord mon ami.
EC @ 269 – Yes, mercy indeed – a now rare quality that can only survive in the US legal system under the Kid. It certainly no longer exists in the political system and the military, so the jurists of independence and conscience are the last ‘thin gowned line’. More power to them.
EC @ 223 & Jen @ 271- I love his line that the intellectual elites are responsible for all the US’s problems – it’s a gem:
“Most of the recent mistakes of American public policy, and most of the contemporary delusions of American public life, haven’t come from an ignorant and excitable public. They’ve been produced by highly educated and sophisticated elites.”
This is in the context of justifying Palin on the ticket. The answer to all those problem causing intellectuals is to have more idiots like Palin in government. HAHAHAHAHA That really is a beauty!
Asanque @ 264 – That’s also a classic piece of unbelievable ignorance. Maybe the people who think the Ohio flag is part of that damned Obama’s Muslim plot should stand for high office too. They’d qualify on Kristols’s criteria – clearly not in danger of being part of the dangerous intellectual elite.
If you didn’t laugh, you’d cry …
It appears that the rorts may have started with the voting machines.
http://wvgazette.com/News/200810180251
Good to see that the NYT still has opinion pieces worth the effort of subscription.
Oops the URL
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/20/opinion/20krugman.html?ref=opinion
I must say you look very nice today Catrina.
I’m glad to see Professor Krugman taking one of Ronald Reagan’s worst addled contributions to public policy to task, “trickle down economics”. Surely, one President Obama takes office, there will be a re-rating of Reagan’s presidency by the pundits; I put him just ahead of the terrible three of the 1850s (Millard Fillmore, Franklin Pierce and James Buchanan) and my own personal favourites for the worst of the 20th century (Warren Harding, Calvin Coolidge and Herbert Hoover). However “W” is now top of the pops in this race to find the worst POTUS; he wins by the length of the street, probably the only race that such a simpleton could win.
Also, I think it a marvelous achievement of stupidity that Reagan’s policies changed the US from being a creditor to world to becoming the largest debtor nation the world has known. So he “won” the Cold War – behaving economically responsibly would have won it too, as we know now. Maybe we should credit Reagan for managing to flush the Soviet Union down the toilet. Unfortunately 20 odd years since the end of his presidency the US is been caught in a flushing vortex of his, his cronies and their disciples makings.
Also, the cronies and Nancy subverted the US Constitution by ignoring the fact that Reagan should have been removed from office early in his second term, by using the 25th Amendment to constitution – he was clearly senile with some sort of (Parkinson’s?) tremor.
285 Cardster Interesting, I never picked the Parkinson’s tremor, I’ll check it out. There’s bound to be something on YouTube. My grand father had it, now dads got it. I always thought it was Alzheimers.
I got to this blog
http://wordwatchers.wordpress.com/
a blog by “James W Pennebaker, a psychologist at the University of Texas, counts words, or, more precisely, has a program that does that.” through
http://feministphilosophers.wordpress.com/2008/10/15/counting-the-candidates-words/
which has responses to the article and was in turn highlighted in response to a post on mathematician Terry Tao’s site
http://terrytao.wordpress.com/ (one of my favorites – even though I understand about 5-10% of it!)
on Powell’s endorsement
Great to see a fellow Australian Terry (now a professor at Stanford) blog supporting Obama.
Obama Raised $150 Million in September
http://www.electoral-vote.com
Colin Powell To Have Role In Obama Administration Says Obama
Also, I really like the ‘aura’ effect that the light has on Obama in this photo.
Daily Kos tracking poll:
Obama 50
McCain 42
Another poll shows Obama with a 12 point lead in Pennsylvania, which begs the question: Why the fuck is McLame still wasting money on a state he won’t win?
#290,
Y in PA? I think it keeps the GOP troops engaged (read deluded). If McCain didn’t campain in un-winnable states they’d be disheartened too much. Makes them think they can still win and might be a straegy to keep them motivated to keep the redder states.
Progressive,
You ask, why is McCain still in Pennsylvania when he is down double digits?
Because this is one of the only states that his campaign message has a chance of wittling away a few points. His campaign message is basically “He’s a muslim…He’s a black…He’s a terrorist…He’s a socialist”.
This plays in the older, racist areas like Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio.
He has NOTHING to say to younger,more cosmopolitan, more energised states like Colorado, Virginia or even N Carolina.
His campaign is a bloody disgrace and points to exactly where his decaying Party has fallen to.
The wave is building…..and is nearly here.
No worries, Harry, The Kid got game!
http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0fYe89Y0OJglg/610x.jpg
———————
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/61481
There was an excellent interview on Lateline last night of David Hale, a world leading economist. He thought that Obama would need to defer some of his policies as they would potentially further harm an economy that’s already in crisis. He said Obama had good advisers that would guide him through this. He also talks about the outlook for Australia, China and other parts of the world. It’s well worth a listen – a succinct summary of the outlook for Australia and the world.
Scroll down the box on the right of the Lateline site to find the interview with David Hale
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/
Rasmussen Virginia Poll:
Obama 54
McLame 44
PP North Carolina Poll:
Obama 51
McLame 44
Morning all.
Here’s a wonderfully bizarre moment on the US TV talkshow cycle.
with Zbigniew Brzezinski being interviewed by his own daughter on
morning Joe. 🙂
He makes some good points and doesn’t let the side down.
Worth a look.
http://www.onealcompton.com/index.php?modulo=noticias&acao=exibir_aberto&subacao=semComentarios&idBiblioteca=1499
David Gould @256
Thanks for the reply mate. I can honestly say, never in my life have I had a dinner night with friends where the topic of conversation was American politics, but last night thats just about all we talked about.
And I was the smartest guy in the group
and you know why? 😉
Politic 101… thats why 🙂 🙂
HarryH @ 292
All true. Everything has been going the Kid’s way, and everything says he has the momentum – the 3rd debate, financial events, campaign funds, the opposition stuffing up – and yet a counter trend has developed in the national polls – RCP now down to 5.3% .
It’s harder to read in the state polls because of the scattered polling, but the last Florida poll (SurveyUSA) has McCain in front. That was on 16 October, before the Powell endorsement, but after the debate. The Ohio polls are all over the shop: the last poll – 17-19 October – shows a 9% lead to Obama, but the previous one showed McCain with a 1% lead. Virginia looks fantastic on the graph, but Missouri is the opposite, going down the gurgler. Nevada seemed steady and North Carolina very even with the Kid appearing to be improving a little there, at least up to 15 October.
Anyway, the forceps pattern showing on the national RCP graph, if they close any further, will start squeezing my, er, thumbs.
Of course, I can’t see the Kid losing from here, but the last 2 weeks may be a little tense.
Progressive @ 295 – Didn’t see yours before posting above, and I hadn’t seen the PP N Carolina poll – that makes an improvement there at least, and the latest Virginia one confirms the existing trend.
Rasmussen polling shows a boost for McCain in Florida and Ohio, but the opposite in North Carolina and Colorado.
We might be seeing some of the national tightening flowing into some key states.
However, the ABC national poll has Obama up by 9.