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Kissing our arses goodbye?

The Australian Federal Government has just released a white paper detailing a proposed carbon emissions reduction target of between 5% and 15% by 2020 relative to 2000 levels. The 5% target is described as unconditional whereas the 15% target is described as subject to global agreement where all major economies commit to substantially restrain emissions and all developed countries take on comparable reductions to that of Australia.

The white paper goes on to argue Australia’s unique position in the global war on climate, citing a per capita impact of between 34–41% below 1990 levels, in effect demonstrating that Australia’s proposed commitment is ahead of the Europeans (per capita reduction is projected at 24-34%) and ahead of our cousins (projected 25% per capita sacrifice).

The report argues that Australia’s particular national circumstances (a strong population growth projection, heavy reliance on fossil fuels, etc.) make for greater structural adjustment when compared with many other developed nations.

However, what I don’t see in the report is a sufficient connection to the bigger issue:

Kirribilli Removals – 15 December 2008:

If permafrost melts across the vast areas of Russia and Canada, then we can kiss our arses goodbye

385 replies on “Kissing our arses goodbye?”

I think the biggest problem in the way we are framing this debate is in terms of percentage cuts to per capita emissions.

Australia’s emissions are about twice as large per capita than Europe’s. Thus, Rudd claiming that us cutting our emissions per capita by close to 30 per cent is better than the European target of a cut of 25 per cent per capita is a bit misleading. Europe are already doing better than us – they are coming off a lower base.

What we should be talking about are world baseline permitted emissions per capita and then providing a means by which each nation will move to that baseline. For some, this will enable an increase in emissions; for others – Australia particularly – drastic cuts.

We need to get global per capita emissions down to around 4 metric tonnes per capita per year.

David Gould at 101
The per capita argument gets wobblier and wobblier the closer you look (not that per capita assessment is wrong, just that per capita change can be used in very misleading ways).

By Post Author

Well, the argument needs to be a per capita one – if it is not, then China and India will simply walk away, pointing out that their per capita emissions are a fraction of those in the west. But Rudd is starting this argument from the wrong end. We need to set the target at a specific number by a specific date and not argue about percentages taken from different bases. The percentage reduction per capita argument is just ridiculous.

(Oh, and the ‘4 metric tonnes per capita’ is my target for 2050, and will mean that global emissions then are the same as they are now.)

Yes, it is very misleading. And deliberately so, as Rudd is trying to sell this as us doing better than Europe. In cuts, we may be; but in emissions, we won’t be. And that is the shell game Rudd is using.

I think Rudd is framing the argument so he can get the Liberals on board, then get it through the senate. At the moment I agree with KR’s assessment until proven otherwise.

Rudd is doing what is politically possible. I cannot fault him on it.

I never thought that we would get a decent global agreement in place. I think that my global target of 4 tonnes per capita by 2050 – which, as I have said before, means that in 2050 we will be pumping out the same amount of CO2 globally as we do now – is probably the best outcome one could hope for.

I am resigned to the environment being stuffed and the third world screwed. Massive damage to both is inevitable, and has been inevitable for quite some time.

Some classics there, Ecky, especially the Sherfflus. That’s the only regret about Dubya going very soon.

It’d be nice to see him hit (or narrowly missed) by shoe-throwers at all his public gatherings. Cheney, too, for that matter.

Obama Announces Energy, Environment Team.

President-elect Barack Obama on Monday named an environmental and energy team that he said signaled his determination to tackle global warming quickly and develop alternative forms of energy. He vowed to “move beyond our oil addiction and create a new hybrid economy.”

Obama selected Nobel-prize winning physicist Steven Chu as energy secretary and Carol Browner, a confidante of former Vice President Al Gore, to lead a White House council on energy and climate. Browner headed the Environmental Protection Agency in the Clinton administration.

Chu, 60, is director of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in Berkeley, Calif., and is a leading advocate of reducing greenhouse gases by developing new energy sources.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/12/15/politics/main4670498.shtml

I would much rather wait and see before i go ape on KR and his Government.
I am really dissapointed that lots of ideas have been forced overseas and there appears not much happening here with suitable clean alternatives.
Maybe they are sitting on the fence waiting to see what obama does and i would no be surprised if he runs with this guy’s ideas of new clean energy and thus jobs etc flowing on. Obi did mention turning the empty factories in to factories making wind turbines. I like this guys take on it all.
Maybe just needs Gouldie to run the maths over it.

Jacobson has conducted the first quantitative, scientific evaluation of the proposed, major, energy-related solutions by assessing not only their potential for delivering energy for electricity and vehicles, but also their impacts on global warming, human health, energy security, water supply, space requirements, wildlife, water pollution, reliability and sustainability. His findings indicate that the options that are getting the most attention are between 25 to 1,000 times more polluting than the best available options.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/12/081210171908.htm

Meanwhile the imbecile has set about to reward his loyal followers by burning the midnight oil and signing in laws that will have a disastrous effect on the new US governments attempts at reducing environmental damage.
He just can not get it. The midnight cowboy.

Many of these are radical and appear to pay off big business allies of the Republican party. One rule will make it easier for coal companies to dump debris from strip mining into valleys and streams. The process is part of an environmentally damaging technique known as ‘mountain-top removal mining’. It involves literally removing the top of a mountain to excavate a coal seam and pouring the debris into a valley, which is then filled up with rock. The new rule will make that dumping easier.

Another midnight regulation will allow power companies to build coal-fired power stations nearer to national parks. Yet another regulation will allow coal-fired stations to increase their emissions without installing new anti-pollution equipment.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/dec/14/george-bush-midnight-regulations

Will we really have to wait for global warming etc to destroy our crops for food.
They well may be a thing of the past before we even get there if these wreckless bastards keep getting their way.

But unless one sees what is happening to seeds themselves, one misses the scope of things.

Life itself depends on seeds.

Multinational biotech corporations such as Monsanto have been genetically engineering them, promoting GE-seeds as producing better yields, helping the starving of the world, using less pesticides and as a boon to small farmers.

http://www.opednews.com/articles/Raids-on-Seeds-life-itsel-by-Linn-Cohen-Cole-081215-45.html

This meltdown has to be a bit hotter than global warming at the moment. How those noughts just roll off the tongue. They can’t even afford a lemonade iceblock to cool down.

Total destruction of household wealth in the third quarter: $2.8 trillion, the worst in recorded history. That’s four times more than the government’s entire $700 billion bailout package (TARP).

Total destruction of household wealth in the last year: $7.2 trillion or over TEN times more than the $700 billion TARP package.

Meanwhile, the Treasury reports that only $330 billion of the TARP funds have been committed so far. Worse, most of the funds that have reached the banks are sitting idle in their coffers. If as much as $30 billion has trickled down to households, I’d consider it a minor miracle.

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/deflation-strikes-hard-what-to-do-2-28734

Zero. Fed funds rate is now virtually zero, and the next step is to print even more money, but we all know where that leads:

“At some point, and without knowing the timing, the Fed is going to have to destroy all that money it is creating,” said Alan Blinder, a professor of economics at Princeton and a former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, said the central bank. “Right now, the crisis is created by the huge demand by banks for hoarding cash. The Fed is providing cash, and the banks want to hoard it. When things start returning to normal, the banks will want to start lending it out. If that much money is left in the monetary base, it would be extremely inflationary.”

NYT

…so you’ve all been warned about what will eventually be coming! LOL

Pelosi Lays Down Law

In talks with White House chief of staff-designate Rahm Emanuel and others, Politico reports House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has “set parameters” for what she wants from the Obama administration: “no surprises, and no backdoor efforts to go around her and other Democratic leaders by cutting deals with moderate New Democrats or conservative Blue Dogs.”

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/12/16/pelosi_lays_down_law.html

Obama taps Chicago schools chief to head Education.

President-elect Obama named Chicago public schools Superintendent Arne Duncan to be his Education secretary, hailing Duncan’s record of improving schools in the city.

Obama said that, as the economy continues to falter, education is “the single biggest determinant of how our economy does long-term.”
Obama praised his longtime friend Duncan as someone who recognizes that “the path to jobs and growth begins in America’s classrooms.”

“In the next few years, the decisions we make about how to educate our children will shape our future for generations to come,” Obama said. “They will determine not just whether our children have the chance to fulfill their God-given potential, or whether our workers have the chance to build a better life for their families, but whether we, as a nation, will remain in the 21st century, the kind of global economic leader that we were in the 20th.

more..
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/obama-names-chicago-schools-chief-to-head-education-2008-12-16.html

Thanks, Gaffhook. Already on it. ‘Naive Set Theory’ is the book that I am reading at the moment. It is actually very interesting – if you like that sort of thing, of course. 😉

Enemy Combatant

As to challenging my marks in a Prince Hal kind of way, if it was not a first year maths unit, I would have. But as the only marks that count towards my honours ambitions are second and third year maths unit, it is a bit of a waste of effort. No-one is ever going to look at my grade for discrete mathematics.

Still Gouldie, a pass, a distinction and a high D is a pretty good effort while you’re holding down a job on The Hill and boxing on ferociously in blogdom.

Let’s hope the blighters at your Tech lift their game when they’re setting next year’s exams and take the trouble to proof read the papers before going to print. I’d find out who stuffed-up and “file it away quietly” so if that party gives you any serious static down the road apiece you can demonstrate that party’s carelessness (bordering on negligence) to your advantage. Academic Insurance.

In this instance, The Prince who prompted my comments was Florentine.
🙂

Isn’t it a pity that politics rears its ugly head in the battle against global warming? I firmly believe rudd would have gone for a more ambitious target if he thought the Libs would support him.
I have often thought that certain ministries should be outside of politics, in the way things are managed in war time. It should be possible to set up a group of highly able scientists and industrialists, led by a joint Labour, Coalition and Greens committee. If all parties could just accept that winning this particular battle is for the good of the country, not the good of a particular party or a particular group of people.
The same goes for international efforts, since failure overall will hit based on geography, not the individual effort made by a single country. At least internationally summits to discuss and formulate solutions are going ahead. If that can be done internationally, surely it should be easy to manage that at national level?

Ah, Mac’s patron. I may play that game in theory politically, but I am too nice a guy in real life. 😉

kerneels,

The problem with setting things beyond politics is that it can only be done for things that are beyond politics. 🙂

Global warming, and our response to it, are not. There are genuine disagreements, along with self-interested forces.

I would also recommend against a national summit at this point. Such a summit would be politically disastrous for the government, considering that they have already decided on a course (and have done so with lots of consultation, plus the Garnaut review).

When you read the contrarian positions, there is no reasoning with them. Imagine, for example, if one of the coalition members on the committee was Danna Vale. She would be going on about warming on Mars all the time.

But it would be nice if everyone was in at least general agreement on this issue. 🙁

I was having a little look at coal reserves.

The world currently uses around 7 gigagtonnes a year. There are somewhere between 800 to 900 gigatonnes of proven coal reserves world wide.

If we consumed 7 gigatonnes a year for the next 100 years, we would put more carbon in the atmosphere than we have until this point, and by a pretty large margin. So five degrees of warming within the next 100 years is certainly something that we could do to ourselves.

David Gould at 136

It would be interesting to factor into this the expected life of coal as a saleable commodity. With carbon trading schemes kicking in around the industrialized world there will be more emphasis on getting alternatives into the cost competitive spectrum (and here I’m thinking about things like space based solar power which could be operational in less than 20 years).

By Post Author

Catrina,

I think that coal will be around for a while yet. Despite the scepticism from some, clean coal is going to be big in just a few years.

I would suggest, however, that there will not be much coal being used in 50 years from now – if any, in fact.

“But in an emailed newsletter sent yesterday, Liberal senator Cory Bernardi said he remained “unconvinced about the need for an ETS given that carbon dioxide is vital for life on earth and the earth hasn’t warmed since 1998″. Nationals senators have also come out against the scheme. ”

From the Australian.

This is the kind of thinking that still exists in some quarters. There is no means by which we can move beyond politics on this issue, unfortunately. Paul Kelly is right: this was a brilliant move by Rudd.

Latest prediction about Minnesotta: once the recounting has been done and disputed ballots are counted or not counted, Al Franken will win by about 100 votes – according to Daily Kos.

David Gould at 140

What I want is someone with a spinning propeller attached to a beanie to tell me where the perfect place to live will be in about 10 years for a period of about 20 years (taking into account that I don’t mind a dry cold winter, and I like balmy summer afternoons, and I like occasional thunder and lightning too).

P.S. I need high speed broadband and ready access to an international airport, preferably in some really nice undiscovered part of Australia.

By Post Author

Australia 3/16. 🙁

Catrina,

Canberra is cold in winter, hot in summer. And recently we have been getting more electrical storms. Of course, in 20 years you will have to drink your own sweat to survive. But that is a small price to pay.

David Gould at 143
Canberra is cold and wet (I want cold and dry).
The electric storms are good but its better when your overlooking the sea and backed by a dark forest, lighting flashes turning night to day as you stand on the veranda (glass in hand) and count the number of seconds until the thunder rolls across the horizon. BTW – I’m not planning on drinking my own sweat any time soon – but I will take a decent old Riesling as a compromise solution.

🙂

By Post Author

Yeay! I got him seven times. Thanks for the motivation. Not that I needed any with Bush on the receiving end.

Absolute waterfront is out, Cat. Unless you’re into sharing with sea salamanders. A weatherboard two-story on a headland could be the go. Maybe deck the joint out like a Tim Burton movie set when storms start are a brewin’.
http://i226.photobucket.com/albums/dd142/tomsac69/nightmare.jpg

Remembering your wonderful story about clocking the kindy bully on the schnoz when he got on your case many moons ago, here’s an inspirational address from Anna Funder. Anyone who ever had any doubts about Putin’s essential Fascism need listen no furthur. Her delivery is a tad patchy but the power of her WORDS drive the truth home.

Disclaimer: I’m an unabashed admirer Funder’s novel, “Stasiland” and when the film, “The Lives of Others”, played cinemas a couple of years back, it hit home with oomph aplenty.

http://www.themonthly.com.au/tm/node/1330

I can see that will become a viral game. I’ve already sent it off to friends. Maybe I need to send it to enemies as well. 😈

Europe’s deepening economic problems dominate the EU summit in Brussels. But big differences of opinion have emerged on how to respond. Germany has criticised countries for rushing into untested economic rescue packages,but in Brussels Chancellor Angela Merkel took a more conciliatory tone.

She said: “We support all necessary efforts to stimulate and strengthen the economy, we support the European Commission’s proposal to devote 1.5 percent of Europe’s gross domestic product to that. We think every country should do what it thinks necessary. Germany has already taken a first step. On that we’re in full agreement with the Commission. The most important thing for us in Germany is protecting jobs.”

It’s interesting that a conservative government got us into this mess and it’s the conservative governments that refuse to act. Left wing governments are saving the day all around the world. The conservative governments are so blind they cannot see. The real worry is in ten years time they will still be in denial, and the problem will start again.
http://www.euronews.net/en/article/11/12/2008/eu-split-over-response-to-economic-woes/

EU parliament battle looms on 48-hour week.

The leader of parliament’s second biggest political group has vowed to ‘end Europe’s culture of long working hours’.

The pledge, by PES leader Martin Schulz, comes as MEPs are set to deliver a major blow to the UK government this week by voting to end Britain’s controversial opt-out from the maximum 48-hour week for Europe’s workers.

The Strasbourg plenary begins debating the 15-year-old working time directive (WTD) today and some expect deputies to throw a spanner in the works of a compromise reached by the 27 EU governments earlier this year.

more…
http://www.theparliament.com/latestnews/news-article/newsarticle/eu-parliament-battle-looms-on-48-hour-week/

Ecky, I heard Anna Funder on RN the other day, talking about the courage it took to face off the fascist leadership of Russia…and no matter what hardships one faces in life, they are as nothing compared with the things she described.

Margaret Thatcher once said she would never allow high speed trains to go from the English Channel to the center of London because it provided to much competition to the ferries.

Eurostar at St Pancras railway station
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Eurostar_at_St_Pancras_railway_station.jpg

Saint Pancras. Have a look at the magnificent architecture.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St_Pancras_International_station

Where is St Pancras?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St_Pancras,_London

So Margaret Thatcher, suck eggs!

Damn! Now the horse and cart journey to London will be a thing of the past! How many jobs will be lost?

SEC Probes of Madoff are ‘Deeply Troubling,’ Cox Says.

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox called for a probe of his agency, saying what he has learned about its investigations of Bernard Madoff before the investment manager confessed to operating a $50 billion Ponzi scheme is “deeply troubling.”

“Credible and specific allegations” were made to SEC staff going back to at least 1999, Cox said today in a statement. He asked the agency’s inspector general to lead a “full and immediate review” of the past claims against Madoff.

“I am gravely concerned by the apparent multiple failures over at least a decade to thoroughly investigate these allegations or at any point to seek formal authority to pursue them,” Cox said.

more..
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5SbwJUi617M&refer=home

Bush-Era Abortion Rules Face Possible Reversal
Obama Team Looks at Regulation Set to Be Finalized This Week Letting Medical Staff Refuse to Take Part in Practices They Oppose.

The outgoing Bush administration this week will finalize a regulation establishing a “right of conscience” allowing medical staff to refuse to participate in any practice they object to on moral grounds, including abortion but possibly birth control and other health care as well.

In transition offices across town, officials in the incoming Obama administration have begun considering how and when to undo it.

The regulation is one of a swath of abortion and other reproductive-health issues under review by the Obama team, which is preparing to reverse a variety of Bush measures, according to officials close to the transition. The review is part of a sweeping scrutiny of Bush-era legislation and regulation on issues across the federal government, from environmental and labor rules to defense spending.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122947155578512197.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

For Obama, Job First.

The black D.C. cabdriver and I connected immediately when it became clear that he simply couldn’t suppress his elation about the election of Barack Obama to the presidency. He told me that he had recently quashed some barbershop Obama-bashing arising from what some saw as Obama’s failure to name enough blacks to his Cabinet. “I told these barbershop politicos,” the cabbie said, “just wait until after he is sworn in, and then he will be free to do the black thing.”

I winced and, rather clumsily, tried to explain that Obama will be the first black president, not the black president first. While it isn’t my intention to hold up any critic of the president-elect to censure, I want to remind all those who strongly support the president-elect and wish desperately for him to succeed: If you like the honey, don’t kick over the beehive.

You may need to be registered.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/16/AR2008121602478.html

Madoff. TARP Billlions MIA. Where’s the oversight? Where’s the regulatory crackdown? Where’s the outrage?

Assuming human nature is a constant and that greed is a mainstay in the pantheon of deadly sins, the question is the intersection of law and excess. It is presumed that individuals will in short order be brought before the bar of justice and held accountable (briefly because mortality will limit punishment), but to avoid or at least limit repetition, accountability of law enforcement must also be addressed. By a quantum measure, the largest heist in American history has been pulled off, yet the perpetrators confessed before the securities cops even knew a robbery occurred.

http://www.politico.com/arena/

The TARP has been a disaster from its less than immaculate conception.

The Bush administration and Congressional leadership used scare tactics to rush through a bill that gave vast authority to the Treasury department with almost no oversight. That is what us knuckle-scraping Neanderthals said at the time and events have yet again shown us to be right.

Gov. Rod Blagojevich is small apples compared to the 50 billion that’s gone missing.

http://www.politico.com/arena/perm/Dean_Baker_2D267A6D-C3B8-4FA2-91FB-6EA0DCEBDCFB.html

Ohio.
Dennis Willard: Election reforms rejection expected
Changes are necessary, but this bill is flawed.

Gov. Ted Strickland most likely will veto all or part of the elections reform legislation that moved quickly through the Ohio House on Tuesday. As well he should.

It is not that our elections system is without fault.

Fortunately, the vagaries and conflicts in Ohio law and state directives did little to jeopardize or impede the flow of voters to the polls, nor the tally of their declarations in November.

Still, on an almost daily basis, Republicans and Democrats, primarily GOP deputy chairman Kevin DeWine and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, a Democrat, engaged in a partisan war that went beyond rhetoric and hyperbole and too often resulted in litigation.

A court ruling rarely satisfied either, so decisions were appealed and appealed again. In effect, both sides shopped for favorable judges or courts, which not only cast shadows upon our voting process, but also undermined the credibility of our judicial system.

more..
http://www.ohio.com/news/36279279.html

Robert Reich , in his article “Logic of Keynes in today’s world”, highlights the need to protect “the common good”:

” What we most lack, or are in danger of losing, are the things we use in common – clean air, clean water, public parks, good schools, and public transportation, as well as social safety nets to catch those of us who fall. Common goods like these don’t necessarily use up scarce resources; often, they conserve and protect them.”

http://robertreich.blogspot.com/2008/12/logic-of-keynes-in-todays-world.html

Well, even if we in Oz aren’t quite ready to ‘kiss our arses goodbye’, the poor Seppos are really getting ready to:

But what the Fed is saying is that the economy is completely stuffed: corporate earnings are going to worsen as sales slump. It is trying to keep deflation at bay and overall the economy is in far worse shape than previously thought. Some economists are now forecasting that it shrunk by an annual rate of 6% to 8% this quarter.

(Crikey, Glenn Dyer)

…got that? 6-8% annualised shrinkage of the economy! My god, that’s truly incredible, and all the Fed can do is nationalise the banks and print money to try and stave off deflation.

Ladies and gentleman, the end of an empire is NOT a pretty sight.

And god help Obama, ‘coz he is gonna need it, by the truckload.

171
KIRRI
What i have trouble coming to grips with is the fact that the Rodent and the worlds greatest treasurer must have been somewhat aware of something like this happening and they were still on the stump right up to election night telling us how good a shape the E was in.
It is barely just over 12 months now but all this shit started happening straight after our elections.
I would love to really know how much information they really had then and why they were telling us so many straight out lies.

171
Kirri

corporate earnings are going to worsen as sales slump.

I have been talking to a guy who sells tools to the building and construction industry. He told me that the most popular nail gun in the US they buy wholesale for $229. They normally retail for $329.
They are not selling any at the give away price of $169 which is $60 below cost. They have lots of stock and are trying to unload.

Something different i suppose. The banks lining up to kiss your arse a welcome by paying you to borrow.
Kirri is this wierd or what?

“We’re going to take that idea a step further into the great beyond of an economy on life support,” said Federal Reserve Assistant Money Counter John Cash, III. “We’re going to take the interest rate into uncharted territory and see what happens.

Later today, Bernanke will announce that the Fed will lower the interest rate to minus 0.05 percent

http://www.opednews.com/articles/Fed-to-Lower-Interest-Rate-by-Sandy-Sand-081216-717.html

175
Catrina

I like Rachel Maddow, she at least tries to get the right answers to pertinent questions, rather than blab the explanation du jour, like so much that passes as ‘journalism’ these days. (She was on Jon Stewart’s show recently, and he clearly had a lot of respect for her abilities.)

As for whether there was a crisis or not, it’s probably true that it wasn’t how it was portrayed, but that it could have turned much uglier if the financial markets didn’t think the Fed was going to bail out the big guys. That’s how I read it, but hey, books will be written about this whole episode for many years to come, and no doubt we’ll get quite a few different interpretations. That says it wasn’t clear what was going on, that the fear of massive collapse was driving the players and they did not have a script to follow.

Has the Fed done this badly? Almost certainly, but the question is could they have done things any better? Probably not considering the rapid developments, the political contingencies, and the need to be ‘seen’ to be doing something.

My personal view is that trying to save the banks is impossible, they’ll implode in their own good time no matter what the Fed does, and buying dodgey assets, printing cash and all the other ploys will not be able to stop the decline, so why go that way? Ah, human nature, attempting to do something to ‘help’ when its really a lost cause. Admitting that to themselves, saying to themselves that our financial markets are in disarray, our economy is cactus, and it’s folly to try and change the outcome…that’s much harder to do than throwing taxpayer’s money at it.

Lets go over Bernard Madoff’s 50 billion dollars. This administration has over seen the biggest bunch of corporate crooks the WORLD has ever seen. The were first warned about this guy in 1999. Not to mention Enron World Com, Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac.

Gaffy, it’s ALL weird! We’ve entered the financial twilight zone where nothing makes any sense. (I’ve been watching the 30yr bond rising in price for days and it’s completely insane how much money is being thrown down that well hole for fear of it being lost elsewhere). There’s panic and uncertainty about any institution’s ability to stay solvent.

But what is REALLY scary is that any comparison with Japan in the 90’s fails on the fact that the Japanese had savings, lots of them, but the US has absolutely none and a VERY big hole in their place. And that hole gets deeper by the day.

If Bernanke can’t stoke the ashes of inflation and get the fire going again, they are truly fcuked. Their debts will continue to grow exponentially while their ability to pay will be corroded by deflation.

So there’s Ben, blowing and puffing to re-start inflation and chucking freshly printed dollar bills on the coals in a desperate attempt to get prices to move up, to see people spending and the banks throwing money at people again.

Hang on, isn’t that how this whole mess got started? Yep, and they’re doing everything in their power to get it going again.

Can they succeed? Maybe. But be sure of this: once that fire flares up again it will proceed to burn down the entire house!

Everyone keeps going on about Chicago. What about all the politicians connected to the biggest crook of them all? GEORGE BUSH. He makes Gov. Rod Blagojevich look like a kindergarten kid.

Bush is responsible for the biggest financial melt down since the thirties and they are worried about Blagojevich.

If Bush gets away with what he has done over the last 8 years, then it will all happen again. Wars and the financial situation.

The economy is looking like something out of early last century, and this sounds awfully like 1920 too:

BAGHDAD — Prime Minister Gordon Brown of Britain confirmed Wednesday that British troops will leave Iraq next summer.
On a surprise visit, he said in a statement with Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, “The role played by the U.K. combat forces is drawing to a close. These forces will have completed their tasks in the first half of 2009 and will then leave Iraq.”

I can’t get on to Sock and Awe. I bet its overloaded. I know lots have people have passed it on, I have feed back already.

Kirri,
Can’t thank you enough for sharing your expertise and your timely warnings…while I may have had sleepless nights as a result, it has certainly had me alert, alarmed and hopefully now prepared! 🙂
Am I correct in feeling that even flight to cash/term deposits could be at risk here? A neighbour on the verge of retiring told me last night that she had moved most of her savings into super last year,thinking it would be the wiser option, and now she appears to have lost it all,and then some. Terrible for many older single women who were late to super in the first place.
Some of us are long enough in the tooth to have experienced the tough times after the war and fortunate to then instinctively save for the rainy day, as well as having the skills to make do in times of need. So much easier to go from poverty to wealth than the other way around. Pity the later generations who have only known prosperity and think it the norm.
But on the upside, the environment may benefit as we return to the basics of life and hopefully reduce our carbon footprint.

To be fair, it’s just a bad case of jetlag in my case, Kirri 🙂
but, I bet there are plenty out there losing sleep as we speak.
Glad your health is now ‘tickety-boo’!

Thanks for “sock&awe” ,Chris.
Dodgy keyboard is my excuse for poor score 🙂
Certainly no lack of venom as I tried to hit the target!

“Am I correct in feeling that even flight to cash/term deposits could be at risk here?”

Megan, the fundalmentals of the banking sector are essentially sound. Plans to convert to shell money globally are proceeding apace. Parity with The Cowrie is expected by February, 2009.
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/wizardofid;_ylt=A0WTUditX0lJUwYBcQYDwLAF

Key players are making huge personal sacrifices to help restore investor confidence.
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/64349

Yes, Ecky is right, our banks aren’t in any danger of falling over (unlike the US ones, which needed to be recapitalised by the US taxpayer, and many of the small ones are disappearing on a weekly basis).

But parity with the cowrie shell is exactly where the US dollar is headed:

“We need to have significant inflation: 2% is not enough to improve solvency significantly, and we may experience 5-10% for a year or two,” Johnson and Peter Boone of the London School of Economics wrote in a recent posting on WSJ.com. “Inflation has major drawbacks and creates its own risks, but compared to the alternatives, it would be a relief.”

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/When-0-isnt-low-enough/story.aspx?guid={0C5136DB-B11E-4531-A996-A070E6D8B5CD}

…so the economic boffins are now coming out saying that ‘pushing on a string’ (ie lowering rates in an attempt to revive the economy) is futile, and the ONLY way out of a Japanese style deflationary spiral is to actually print money and cause inflation!

Whoa there sunshine! This is going to trash the US dollar and scare the nice foreigners who have kindly parked their savings in US treasuries. They will not continue to donate to this basket case only to see their capital inflated away into the ether.

Talk about being on the horns of a dilemma! And the first problem is how do you ‘control’ the level of inflation when you’ve printed vast amounts of cash and increased the money supply by the massive bailouts and stimuli? It’s always the danger that this beast takes on a life of its own and eats you! Just ask Paul Volcker how hard it is to stop this beast in its tracks!

“I’ve abandoned free-market principles to save the free-market system.”
— President Bush, in an interview with CNN.

Andrew Sullivan: “Just as he used torture to defend freedom. And occupied a country in order to liberate it.”
(polwire)

“Did we have to destroy the town in order to save it”?[9]
~Marine Captain Myron Harrington who commanded a one-hundred-man company during the battle*.
(wiki)
* Hue, Vietnam, 1968.

“He’s the one who gives his body
as a weapon to a war
and without him all this killing can’t go on”
Bufft Sainte-Marie

“Gee, honey, fancy seeing you here! Sabrina and I were just lying on the bed comparing heights as you walked in. I’m tallest.”
~The Universal Husband

“He’s five feet two and he’s six feet four….”

“Moral hazard is dead”, and just to prove it:

“Too big to fail.” The words may become central to everyone’s thinking. A quick search in New York Times articles of the past few years shows that the phrase was used six times in 2007, and only twice in each of the years 2004, 2005 and 2006; this year it has already been employed over 50 times.

NY Times

…we have, ladies and gentlemen, entered the twilight zone where GW Bush now claims to be saving the free market! LOL

This absurd man, this Forrest Gump, this poor bewildered idiot son is standing in the maelstrom as it wrecks the nation and he utters inanities.

The European Parliament has voted to force Britain to remove its controversial opt-out from the EU’s weekly limit on working hours, striking a blow to the long-sought deal among the member states on the maximum amount of hours Europeans can safely spend at work.

A majority of MEPs agreed that the current provision applied mainly by the UK and some new member states should be scrapped three years after adoption of the directive. The Wednesday (17 December) vote delivered 421 votes in favour of the move against 273 MEPs opposed, with 11 abstentions.
Additionally, deputies ruled that there should be in future no exemptions from the currently applied health-and-safety-related cap of a maximum 48-hour working week calculated over a reference period of 12 months.

Another blow against Thatcherism.

more…
http://euobserver.com/9/27312

EU moves towards mandatory lobbyists register.

Commission and parliament have formed a joint working group on Tuesday (16 December) aimed at drawing up a proposal for a common register for the over 15,000 EU lobbyists by mid-2009, amidst criticism from NGOs regarding the influence of big business on the EU executive when drafting legislation.
A “de facto mandatory” register for EU lobbyists, merging the existing mandatory list from the European Parliament with the voluntary financial interests register set up by the EU commission might be designed by mid-2009, Kristian Schmidt, deputy head of cabinet for administration and anti-fraud commissioner Siim Kallas told EUobserver.

more..
http://euobserver.com/9/27310

European Parliament approves climate change package.

The European Parliament on Wednesday approved the EU’s climate change package, aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 20 percent by 2020, lifting the last hurdle to the ambitious plan.

Six texts on the package, already agreed by the 27 European Union member states, were passed by a large majority of the MEPs present.

“We have sealed the climate package,” said European Parliament President Hans-Gert Poettering, after the vote.

The so-called “20-20-20” climate package, which Europe hopes will serve as a model to other nations, will oblige EU nations to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 20 percent by 2020 from 1990 levels, make 20 percent energy savings and bring the use of renewable energy sources up to 20 percent of the total.

more…
http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/1229513521.59

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