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Cracks in the Ice

Reported in the AP, written up in the Weekend Australian, a couple of op-eds, and the NYT, but not a lot of attention …

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea called on Friday for an end to “the hostile relationship” with the United States, issuing a New Year’s message that highlighted the reclusive country’s attempt to readjust the focus of six-party nuclear disarmament talks.

Mechanismus cialis 20mg lilly erfahrung ein, der dem entstehen einer potenzpillenmann erektion. Kornealreflex eradin potenzmittel vestibulookulärer die bei der durchführung der behandlung, die in deutschland durch.

In the meantime, an interesting snippet from of the The Mainichi Daily News earlier today …

This year, the Obama administration will continue to take various actions on the nuclear issue. The U.S. and Russia are heading toward an agreement on strategic arms reduction. Meanwhile, the U.S. is working on renewing the country’s Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) for the first time in eight years, and is expected to incorporate anti-nuclear terrorism measures. The nuclear security summit this April will aim for an international agreement on enhanced protection of nuclear materials, and in May, a review of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) — held every five years — will take place in New York.

I may be too hopeful, too optimistic, but I don’t care …
Our world *is* moving to a better place.

1,804 replies on “Cracks in the Ice”

Very nice and very hopeful. I agree completely about the better place. That’s why I worry when some people are giving up to early. Take your foot off the dragons throat when you have him pinned to the ground and poof you have Lazarus with a triple by pass.

I head North Korea was dropping hints. Maybe they have been sitting back waiting to see if Obama was another George Bush or not.

Yay Catrina!!!

Thank you my lovely girl-blogger. Am feeling dispirited (but well-wined 😉 ) at the current “obamahasletusdown” trend that seems to have over taken too many.

The man is not God FFS.

There is only so much that could be expected . However I do believe in his integrity – and that is a rare thing in politics. And it is to be admired and supported. Let us not forget for one moment what preceded him and what is trying to rearm itself in the face of a willingness to undermine him.

Neoconservatism.

We are staring it in the face right now in our own country. Give them an inch… and we know exactly where we are heading.
We need to support the movement that Obama represents, as slow and flawed as it may be. Otherwise every ill-informed person will jump on the “he can’t do it” bandwagon. And they vote. And back we go – just as Howard managed to do in the face of the backlash against Keating. Or Bush did after Clinton.

Get a grip people. He always said he was not the Messiah.
This is about unrealistic expectations, not his performance.

Chris B at 3

That map took a while to appear, was that you Catrina?

No time to do the usual replication, scaling down to optimal resolution, local hosting, etc., etc. You guys are just going to have to handle the one slow download but then its cached and nobody will think twice (unless I get all thingy – but don’t hold your breath).

🙂

By Post Author

Toss in a few things happening in Cuba and Iran (is that too much to hope for)? And with a bit of luck the final nail in the coffin for the Repugs in 2010. As long as the Democrats run a campaign to get the recalcitrant supports back on board, to help nail the bastards.

Jen. They can work to change the Democrats from the inside, by getting more liberals into power. Not just give up like some we know.

Dems ‘Almost Certain’ to Bypass Conference.
===========================================

Now that both the House and Senate have passed health care reform bills, all Democrats have to do is work out a compromise between the two versions. And it appears they’re not about to let the Republicans gum up the works again.

According to a pair of senior Capitol Hill staffers, one from each chamber, House and Senate Democrats are “almost certain” to negotiate informally rather than convene a formal conference committee. Doing so would allow Democrats to avoid a series of procedural steps–not least among them, a series of special motions in the Senate, each requiring a vote with full debate–that Republicans could use to stall deliberations, just as they did in November and December.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/the-treatment/exclusive-dems-almost-certain-bypass-conference

Jen at 4

Am feeling dispirited (but well-wined 😉 ) at the current “obamahasletusdown” trend that seems to have over taken too many.

I’m simply awe-struck at you impeccable spelling and typographic discipline while maintaining a well-winded demeanor. You are and will remain forever my role-model.

😎

By Post Author

Any Democrat who abstains from voting in protest in 2010, is effectively giving one of the most EVIL regimes (Repugs) we have ever seen in the USA, one vote. Because that is one less vote for the Democrats. With a bit of luck the Democrats will remind voters of this.

Chris-
I am talking more generally than just about the US. I am talking about a cultural and social change that needs to rise above party politics while at the same time using that as the vehicle. Moderates in opposition are a good thing – that is what changes the social paradigm. As flawed as Malcolm Turnbull is, he is a country mile ahead of Abbott and what he represents. So it is not about eradicating an opposition so that one party rules supreme – that is dangerous. I hope the Republicans find a way to challenge the Democrats and make them accountable. Even more so – I hope the social democrats (ie The Greens in Australia) can influence the agendas of the mainstream parties. That’s their job.

Cat @9
thanks sweetheart , but you will see i lived up to my own reputation @11 above … “generAlly” …

Good grief! This place just isn’t safe!!!
Gel nail technicians with “ack ack” breasts and the the very best of intentions.
Plus, a potential member of parliament, who can spell and use the English language in a way that draws tears from a stone.
SOB!!!
I love you’s all. :mrgreen:

P.S. Some time ago, in a distant galaxy. I was stumbling around the Prague castle, looking for for a *real* picture of our “great leader”…..
And behold….I discovered that Princess Catrina is actually *not* a gel nail technician!
She’s actually a famous huntress who enjoys pursuing the mad monk through the primordial forest with her beloved hound. 👿
http://tinyurl.com/ye4aoen

Re the last thread: yes, pollsters do push agendas (poorly, in my opinion). But that is not the same thing as fiddling the numbers, which appears to be the accusation levelled against Rasmussen. Statistically, there is no evidence that they do.

And Jen made a comment wondering why Obama fell in approval (it should be remarked that on average he has only fallen a couple of per cent from his election position, although there are problems in that the vast majority of polling companies poll all adults, whereas the election is, obviously, voters).

I think that there were unrealistic expectations. Combine that with a downturn in the US economy, and you have your answer. It is all very well to talk about blaming Bush, but when you have lost your job, you cannot actually hold Bush accountable anymore – he is out of there. The only target in sight is the current incumbent. Either he finds you a job or …

And Chris, I agree: those Democrats who stay at home and do not vote because they are disappointed with Obama are basically saying, ‘I’d rather the Republicans were in charge than a Democrat who did not live up to my hopes.’ Those people will hopefully have some sense slapped into them before the congressionals.

Regarding the OP, North Korea’s statements are just words – they say these kinds of things all the time, and history has told us that they are just for propaganda purposes.

However, I am much more optimistic on the US and Russian cooperation on nuclear issues. I think that the missile shield decision was a powerful one by Obama, and it looks as though it could pay big dividends.

11 Jen I am not suggesting a one party system. I am suggesting eliminating an evil opposition so that maybe, just maybe they will rebuild and start again. I am suggesting that the Democrats cannot get anything done with with the obstructionist Republicans. In order to complete their work they need to have a super majority. At the moment the only effective opposition is in the Democrats. Changes need to be made in the Republicans, but rewarding the Republicans for just being obstructionist is very, very bad for politics in the USA.

I will go back even further than the Republicans and say that the whole damn system in the USA is rotten. Just maybe they will be forced to start rebuilding if the Democrats do have a super majority and they do make some massive structural changes that need to be made. The current system does not work and the only way it will change is if the Democrats have a super majority. If the Republicans win things will just go back to the old ways. Hopefully the liberal left will not let things go to the Democrats heads.

Chris B,

I doubt that the Democrats will get a supermajority in the sense that is required. They technically have 60 votes in the Senate now, and you can see how they struggle to get anything progressive through.

I cannot see the Republicans getting smashed at the congressionals, I am afraid. The Republicans will gain some ground, in fact.

Re Ronald Reagan, true. The Republicans lost 25 or so seats in the House in the 1982 elections, but lost no senators. And things may well turn around – 11 months is a very long time.

Spot on. 11 months is a very long time in politics especially. Maybe this is why the Democrats are being over cautious with the health bill. In Steve Brack’s first term the ALP was very cautious. Then bingo landslide. (I picked the swing in the upper house to one seat). What is happening in the USA is very similar. We had lots of nay sayers here at the time as well.

If I remember right no one I knew expected a landslide. Until very late in the election when everything was going wrong for the Liberals.

Republican retirements mount in House.

The decision by South Carolina Rep. Henry Brown to retire brings Republican retirements to 14, a number that, if it continues to rise in the coming months, could curtail the expected GOP gains in the House in November.

While much of the focus for the last month (or so) has been on Democrats’ retirement problems — set off by a quartet of announcements in swing and Republican-leaning districts over the last month — a broad look at the open seat playing field suggests more parity in terms of the two parties’ opportunities and vulnerabilities than conventional wisdom suggests.

Republicans currently carry 14 open seats while Democrats have 10. Each side has three seats won by the other party’s presidential candidate in 2008; for Democrats, that’s Louisiana’s 3rd district and Tennessee’s 6th and 8th districts while for Republicans it’s Delaware’s at-large seat, Illinois’ 10th district and Pennsylvania’s 6th district.

continued in the Washington Post. You may need to be registered.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/house/republican-retirements-mount-i.html

Chris B,

The problem is, I cannot see where the Democrats are going to pick up additional Senate seats. They should, imo, aggressively target moderate Republican districts, but there are not many of them left …

There are only four possible pickups for the Democrats that I can see: Missouri, Ohio, Kentucky and Florida (the last is only if Crist loses the Republican nomination to Rubio).

Kendrick Meek looks like a good guy to get into the Senate in Florida – he seems progressive enough.

The two Ohio candidates are at least reasonable, although Jennifer Brunner seems the more progressive of the two.

Robin Carnahan for Missouri seems okay also.

Neither of the Kentucky candidates are progressives – hardly surprising, given that this is Kentucky we are talking about.

Politico fails to fact-check Rasmussen’s claim that he ‘has never been a campaign pollster or consultant.’
==============================================

Reporting on criticisms of right-leaning pollster Scott Rasmussen, Politico presented as fact his official bio as “an independent pollster” who “has never been a campaign pollster or consultant.” The article quotes Rasmussen’s critics, but fails to question his supposed independence:

continued on Think Progress.
http://thinkprogress.org/2010/01/04/politico-rasmussen/

Democrats Attack Pollster Rasmussen
=============================================

Pollster Scott Rasmussen has come under fire from Democrats for systematically releasing polls that are more favorable to Republicans than are those of his competitors. Rasmussen originally started out as a freelancer pollster, but now frequently works for Fox News. Although specific polls are often attacked, it is relatively rare for a party to attack a pollster in general claiming that he is biased. Rasmussen’s polls are all conducted by computer, so interviewer bias is very unlikely. The problem comes from the fact that all pollsters normalize their samples. For example, if a pollster believes that 53% of the voters in some election are likely to be women, but in today’s poll only 49% of the respondents were women, he will weight the women’s votes by 53/49 to correct for the undersampling.

Weighting is also done for education, income, race, and partisan identification to get the correct number of Democrats, Republicans, and independents, and this is where the rub is. Democrats are essentially accusing him of having a model that favors Republicans and Republican constituencies too heavily.

Another hot issue is likely voter models. Many pollsters ask a few questions to determine is someone is likely to vote, such as “Did you vote in the last election?, “Do you think it is every citizen’s duty to vote?,” “Do you think your vote will count?” Based on the answers, the pollster only counts the answers of people he believes likely to vote. Each pollster has his own formula and keeps the questions used a carefully guarded secret. Both the model and the screen are fairly arcane material and few people understand it, but by tweaking a few parameters, one can change the results quite a bit. For example, Rasmussen’s take on Obama’s approval typically is 5 points below that of other polling outfits.

http://www.electoral-vote.com

Ohio, Kentucky, Florida, Loiusianna, South Dakota, and North Carolina.
Assuming the Democrats run with IT WAS ALL GEORGE BUSHES FAULT HE WAS THE DUMBEST PRESIDENT EVER!!!!!

This bit is important.
==================

According to the non-partisan Center for Public Integrity, Rasmussen has been a paid consultant for the RNC and President Bush’s 2004 campaign. The RNC paid Rasmussen $95,500 between 2003 and 2004 for items listed as “survey,” “survey cost” and “voter data.” Bush’s campaign paid Rasmussen $45,500 for “survey research.”

http://thinkprogress.org/2010/01/04/politico-rasmussen/

Blessed Are The Warmongers…….for they shall achieve Chapter Eleven

Let’s pause a moment as the New Year begins and take stock of ourselves as what we truly are: the preeminent war-making machine on planet Earth. Let’s peer into the future, and consider just what the American way of war might have in store for us in 2010. Here are 10 questions, the answers to which might offer reasonable hints as to just how much U.S. war efforts are likely to intensify in the Greater Middle East, as well as Central and South Asia, in the year to come.
1. How busted will the largest defense budget in history be in 2010?
Strange, isn’t it, that the debate about hundreds of billions of dollars in healthcare costs in Congress can last almost a year, filled with turmoil and daily headlines, while a $636 billion defense budget can pass in a few days, as it did in late December, essentially without discussion and with nary a headline in sight?

http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/feature/story/index.html?story=/opinion/feature/2010/01/04/what_to_watch_for_in_2010

http://www.truthdig.com/cartoon/item/you_have_to_show_more_than_your_boarding_pass_20100104/

Jan 4:
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/pat-oliphant

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/80249

Too Big To Protect
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/80276/

Jan 4:
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/tom-toles

Jan 4:
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/80240

Jan 4:
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/ted-rall

Jan4: Speaking of Globalization
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/jeff-danziger

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/79987/

Chris B,

Rasmussen polls likely voters. All the other pollsters poll all adults. This is the reason for the difference in the numbers.

It does mean that they canot really be averaged, either, as they are polls of different populations, and thus not comparable. It bothers me that they are included in averages.

Chris B,

In my opinion, rejecting polling when you do not like the numbers is not a good idea.

You are right rejecting polling when you do not like the numbers is not a good idea. But rejecting them when there is question over their integrity is fine.

I definitely would not use them when trying to make a case for a point I was trying to make.

All Together Now: Shut Up You Lefties!

It’s bound to happen, any time progressives have the audacity to demand brave leadership from a Democratic Party that asks for our money, our votes and our volunteer labor. The cry goes up from the self-proclaimed level heads of corporate media: You impractical, self-defeating lefties! Stop whining and let the adults run things! And so, as the leadership debacle that was health reform reaches its climax, it’s little surprise that those of us who won’t stop fighting for true reform are once again told to shut up.

http://www.thenation.com/blogs/notion/511889/all_together_now_shut_up_you_lefties

I also learned a new term from the comments section of the above article:

Obamacons

Brilliant!

Warmest decade proves Abbott ‘got it wrong’

Federal Environment Minister Peter Garrett says figures released by the Bureau of Meteorology prove the Opposition has got it wrong on climate change.

The Bureau says its annual climate statement for 2009 shows last year was the second-warmest since records began in 1910, while the past decade was the warmest in Australia as well as globally.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/01/05/2785897.htm?site=news

HusseinStWorm at 42,

I would echo something said in the comments: progressives need to keep pushing a progressive agenda, but should not hand power back to the Republicans if they do not succeed in getting it through.

Apart from “It’s all George Bushes fault” the other major angle the Democrats will use to great effect to scare the living daylights out of the moderate voter is scenes from the Tea Parties and clips from Fox News. The Democrats have everything at hand to win in a landslide. The only thing stopping them is themselves.

So will the polls David. Why? Because the do not take into account the campaign the Democrats will run their campaign. So really it doesn’t matter if Rassmussen is way out. They will be wrong too.

Chris B,

If I were the Democrats, I would start running your campaign now. Once you lose voters, it can be very difficult to get them back.

(And polling cannot take into account things that have not happened yet)

No it’s not David. Ronald Regan proved that. Obama is in a better position than most other big winners have been in.

Chris B,

What would have to be awfully big?

But Ronald Reagan *did not* prove that, because the Republicans lost votes and seats in the 1982 congressional elections. Reagan took until 1984 to recover the Republican vote.

Chris B,

I am wondering what you are talking about with something big. What will have to be big in order for what to happen?

Regan came from further back in the polls. He didn’t loose senate seats. Obama is in a much better position and has George Bush to pick on.

I said:

“(And polling cannot take into account things that have not happened yet)”

You replied:

“Yes polling cannot take that into account. But it would have to be AWFULLY BIG!!!”

I cannot see the connection. What would have to be awfully big in order for what regarding polling?

Are you saying, “In order for the Democrats to lose seats in the congressional elections, something really bad would have to happen”?

It may not be that clear what I said at 60. Something awfully big would have to happen that polling has not taken into account that has not happened yet. I new what I meant, did I have to explain it to everyone else!!!! 😈

If you are, then I should clarify my comments. What I was talking about was your reference to the Democrat campaign to come. My point was that the polls obviously cannot show the impact of an election campaign that has not been started.

Yes that is right. But I am assuming an obvious campaign that the Democrats would run. If it goes the way I say. Then after the election all the Media will say how could the polling companies have got it so wrong? My answer would be they missed the obvious.

Chris B,

But the polling done while the campaign is running will pick up any change in public opinion. So they will not get it wrong.

79. Spot on. Which is why early polling in this case (and maybe Ronald Regans case) is ALMOST useless.

Chris B,

It is not useless if it is used for what it should be used for: measuring public opinion as of the time of polling.

You need to remember that the Republicans might be able to do some campaigning of their own … 😉

However, I admire your optimism. 🙂 Personally, I think that if there is no climate change legislation this year, there will be no climate change legislation in the United States for many years, as 60 votes in the Senate for it will become impossible to get.

The climate change thing was just an example of the problems I think that we are facing because of the numbers in the US. This is why no progressives should stay at home on election day. If they do, they are destroying their own cause.

If it will have a negative impact on the election year. They will postpone it. Then they can bring in strong legislation. Mind you they toughened up the EPA laws. Which is a good start.

Here is a perfect example as to why the ALP’s Internet firewall won’t work. All I did was type in Rasputin in Google images (I may have put it up before, I’m not sure).

Rasputin So if it is in a museum. Will the whole museum site be blocked? The image shown is not a museum site. If that image is blocked. People will go and take another picture in the museum and put it up again on thousands of other sites.

Actually I have just noticed a second image that wasn’t there previously. They both appear on different sites already. A PERFECT example as to why the ALP’s firewall WON”T work.

86 David Gould Thanks for that. I was the only one who though the ALP would get a landslide in Bracks second term. Using the exact same logic. I missed by one seat in the upperhouse (just). The polls were wrong early then too.

Comments are closed.