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Are The GOP Running Dead for 2012 or are they simply total goof-offs?

The Republicans seem to be handing the Democrats the next election on a platter. Newt Gingrich has ripped the Paul Ryan Budget.

On top of The Huffington Post Article I received this email from The Daily Kos.
We often don’t know what’s at stake in an election until it’s too late. Fortunately, Republicans in DC have been up front with us. (I know crazy, right?) Over the past month, they made it clear they will hand over Medicare to private insurance companies if they win the 2012 elections.
This is a good thing, because now we have another excellent reason to stand up and fight them. That’s why we’re sending John Boehner a cake, with the signatures of Daily Kos community members underneath it, thanking him for guaranteeing we will be fired up for 2012.
Click here to add your name to the petition that will appear underneath the thank you cake.
Here’s what happened:
On April 5, Paul Ryan released the Republican budget plan, which called for deep cuts to Medicare and the privatization of whatever is left.
On April 15, only two House Republicans voted against this budget.
On May 5, John Boehner said that Republicans wouldn’t push for this budget now because it can’t pass while Democrats control the Senate and the White House. However, Boehner made it clear that Republicans still strongly backed the plan.
That’s about as straight forward as Republicans are ever going to be. They are going to slash and privatize Medicare as soon as they control the House, the Senate and the White House.
The rowdy reception Republicans received at town halls last month was a sample of the blowback they are getting from this, but let’s give them another taste—in cake form! Click here to thank John Boehner for finally being honest about the Republican plan to destroy Medicare.
Keep fighting,
Chris Bowers
Campaign Director, Daily Kos

As well each of their potential presidential candidates has imploded shortly after they announced their decision to run. Well at least two have, and one announced he won’t run. As they self-destruct or withdraw, and they are slowly eliminating the potential candidates, one person is quietly sitting on the sidelines watching the carnage: Sarah Palin, my personal choice for the destruction of the Republicans. There is a LONG WAY to go yet. But after the let down of last year I am beginning to become more optimistic.

As I write this, something has clicked which had not previously occurred to me. My best hope for the senate, in my wildest dreams, would be to pick up two extra states over and above a swing of 5% on the 2008 elections for the Democrats to get anything done. Those states would preferably be the difficult to obtain ones of Arizona and Texas. Both states have retiring senators, and given the path of self destruction that the Republicans are currently on, (and will hopefully continue on till November 2012) the Democrats will nab them. They would then attain 62 seats in the senate, giving them a gap of 4 votes, not two as I had been wrongly assuming. This may be enough to bypass any Blue Dog block and enable a flood of legislation to pass. Meanwhile back in the real world, Walter Mitty says tell im ya dreamin. I am not a praying man, but till November 2012 I will be facing Mecca an awful lot.  I think another sex scandal would be really nice. About 3 months out from the election and running right up to Election Day.

The unpopularity of certain state governors will also help the Democrats, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Florida, Maine and Ohio in particular. Massachusetts has a BIG party machine behind it so Scott Brown should be swept away with the Democrat tide. The Democrats have a big voter registration. Just paint him Republican. Lets hope we get two strong liberals in Connecticut & Massachusetts would REALLY help the Democrats. No Blue Dogs allowed. Tip for the Democrats: if you are lucky enough to get 62 in the senate pass 2 years of popular things with the voters to wipe them out in 2014. It’s called governing by popularism.  Copying Australia’s National Broadband Network would be a great start.
United States Senate elections, 2012
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2012

911 replies on “Are The GOP Running Dead for 2012 or are they simply total goof-offs?”

That is really good news Jen.

Enjoy your stay on Hamilton Island.

No speeding in the golf buggies. :mrgreen:

ChrisB,

I admire your optimism. 🙂

Obama should win comfortably – unless Romney gets the nod, in which case Obama will win by a narrower margin – but the Senate is a different matter.

The Democrats will have 21 seats up for re-election, plus 2 independents who caucus with them. The Republicans will only have 10 seats up for re-election. To reach a total of 62, the Democrats would have to win 9 out of those 10, while not losing a single one of their 23 seats. This is not likely. At present, a status quo scenario apart from North Dakota, which the Democrats will likely lose, is the most plausible outcome. That would give the Dems 52, not 62.

Name names damn ya.

I hope Roo is shitting bricks as every new revelation brings the dirty sordid gutter dweller closer to the action.

Jude Law, one of the alleged victims of NOTW’s hacking activities, has filed a civil lawsuit against NOTW. His barrister, Hugh Tomlinson QC, made the shocking revelation after saying that documents seen by Law’s legal team had the name of a senior NOTW executive in them.

Lawyers representing NOTW contested Tomlinson’s claim but the BBC described Tomlinson’s disclosure to the court as a “bombshell moment”. As the sordid saga of phone hacking has been played out over several years, one of the persistent questions that has remained unanswered has been, just how high up did the paper trail of illicit surveillance and corruption go?

Then NOTW editor, Andy Coulson, has always denied knowledge of phone hacking during his time at Murdoch’s tabloid newspaper. Just about everyone who has worked in print journalism finds that claim to be astonishing, however Tomlinson’s statement suggests that people higher up than Coulson knew about the illegal activities that were going on.

http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/2072734/senior-news-world-executive-fingered-uk-phone-hacking

Will the investigation go the distance or will another light plane fall out of the sky just short of the landing strip?

Who Knows?

IMHO it will be the latter.

Will the NY Attorney General Bring Doomsday Charges Against Wall Street? If So, How Long Will He Survive?

We now have the new attorney general, Schneiderman, and the leaked investigation. Robert Scheer praised the effort but expressed this jaded (and probably accurate) caution:

“Eric Schneiderman will probably fail, as did his predecessors in that job; the honest sheriff doesn’t last long in a town that houses the Wall Street casino. But decent folks should be cheering him on. Despite a mountain of evidence of robo-signed mortgage contracts, deceitful mortgage-based securities and fraudulent foreclosures, the banks were going to be able to cut their potential losses to what was, for them, a minuscule amount [by the state and federal consent order proposals].” Robert Sheer, Truth Dig, May 17

http://www.opednews.com/articles/1/Will-the-NY-Attorney-Gener-by-Michael-Collins-110520-750.html

Jingees it would be loverly if Roo has to share his profits with those whose phones were hacked.
Grouse, absolutely fucken grouse as more hackings come to light.
Do us all a favour Justice Vos.

The damages that will be awarded in each of the fives test cases, should they be successful, are likely to vary because each of them alleges a different level of criminal wrongdoing by Mulcaire and the News of the World.

Vos raised the prospect of imposing exemplary damages on parent company News International. They are set at a level high enough to punish the company for its behaviour and deter others from committing the same crime, and are often a percentage of a company’s profits.

“It’s one thing for a journalist to say ‘I’m desperate to get a story’,” Vos said. “It’s another thing for the chief executive of a company to say ‘I’m desperate to make more money by getting stories in this evil way’.”

Vos added: “Was there a conspiracy between Mulcaire and News Group Newspapers to intercept voicemail messages? The answer is yes there was. Was it an agreement between the board of directors of NGN? … I will have to determine the answer.”

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/may/20/phone-hacking-investigation-practice

Yes, Gaffy, we’re here and enjoying your vitriol against the Dirty Delaware and Global Mendacity.

RN is live at the Sydney Scribefest. Hope you got along for a session or two, megan.

Have you been taken up in the rapture yet Gaffy?
I seem to have missed the boat here. 👿
Meanwhile this clip from Colbert with John Lithgow giving Newt Gingrich’s press release a dramatic reading http://youtu.be/gJlL2vfXnJg
Is worthy of a trip upstairs. :mrgreen:

Have you been taken up in the rapture yet Gaffy?

Nah Paddy just got a Rupture from lifting big Barra out of the Herbert river. :mrgreen:

Now let’s see if the roof comes off over the latest allegations involving the dirty little digger from Delaware.

IMHO if the other organisations don’t attack him then it means they are up to the same tricks and digger knows it.

The same source said that by hacking into voicemails, Mulcaire obtained a password which would have allowed him to access the MoS internal computer system, potentially disclosing all of its email traffic and every story awaiting publication.

Some journalists who have worked for the NoW claim they were also attempting to penetrate the security of the Sun, the Daily Mail, the Daily Mirror, the Sunday Mirror and the People.

If proved, the claim could break the alliance of silence which has seen most Fleet Street papers refuse to investigate the scandal. Rice’s legal action is only the latest in a number of indications that the claim may be correct.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/may/22/phone-hacking-journalist-lawsuit

Sarah moose slayer has bought a house in arizona.
She is now less popular than Bazza in Alaska. They don’t like her no more.

Who knows if she is going to run for POTUS in 2012 but in a poll asking if the locals wanted her to move to AZ, there was a resounding NO.

In any event, buzz surrounding Palin’s supposed purchase were enough to prompt Public Policy Polling, a Democratic company based in North Carolina, to ask Arizona voters in an automated survey whether they would like Palin to move to their state. Fifty-seven percent said no, 27 percent said yes, and 16 percent were not sure. Just like in the political polls, Palin has her work cut out for her.

http://www.opednews.com/populum/linkframe.php?linkid=132081

The NoW hacking saga is now also zeroing in on mr Plod as the former Deputy PM has won the right to a judicial review of mr Plods handling of the scandal.

High Court judge David Foskett granted Prescott and three other people — lawmaker Chris Bryant, journalist Brendan Montague and former senior police officer Brian Paddick — the right to seek a judicial review of the way the Metropolitan Police dealt with their cases.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iq_FegUEDeOv6ap7uTleUhGeUgbw?docId=cdc2563c1e5a49349c2a92eb6304f65f

Ideology-Obsessed GOP Knowingly Courted Political Disaster with Vote to Privatize Medicare.
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When basically the entire House Republican caucus voted for Paul Ryan’s budget, which includes a “plan” to destroy the very popular Medicare program and replace it with insufficient private vouchers, I couldn’t tell if they made such a terrible political move because they were so trapped in their own ideological bubble that they actually thought Americans wanted to eliminate Medicare, or they were so ideologically driven that they were determined to push radical right-wing social engineering despite it being highly unpopular.

Politico reports it is was mainly the latter. The Republicans were warned it was a horrible political move but did it anyway:

Thanks David. This is ONE OF MANY articles backing up my claim overt the last week. I shall attempt to post my other evidence I have come across.

http://fdlaction.firedoglake.com/2011/05/23/ideology-obsessed-gop-knowingly-courted-political-disaster-with-vote-to-privatize-medicare/

Tennessee 3% required
Nevada 14% (A bit harder. A nice sex scandle).
Massachusetts 5%
Arizona 9% (retiriing).
Connecticut unknown.
Texas 40% A bit too high. Although Kay is retiring.
Maine (Much higher than I relised). The Tea Party running the state of Maine is a major factor. The state Democrats have a gift in the Tea Party. If they keep acting like loonies. Maine will come into play.

It all depends on how the Democrats run their election. If I were the Democrats. I would use the Medicare issue as the number one issue. Bang them around the head with that.

15 gaffhook Brilliant gaffy! I have just posted that on Whirlpool. With a game over naysayers comment attached. 🙂

Maine polls
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Three polls have been released in the last two weeks in which Maine voters were asked to express their opinion of Paul LePage and his performance as governor. Many are pointing to the most recent, a Critical Insights survey showing LePage’s approval rating at 31%, as evidence that support for the governor has quickly plummeted.

The real answer to how the public views LePage and his time in office is much more complicated. First, let’s look at the results.

http://www.downeast.com/the-tipping-point/2011/may/interpreting-approval

Fox News poll: 57% think Barack Obama will be re-elected.
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It’s a funny thing. The economy isn’t so great, and people are not thrilled with America’s standing compared to four years ago. Yet, whether it’s the Obama got Osama effect, or the incredibly shrinking GOP field (Pawlenty is officially in and Daniels is officially out, though neither was true during the poll) Obama’s job approval is at 55% and most people think Obama will be re-elected.

Despite having a common opinion that the United States is in worse shape than it was four years ago, 57 percent of Americans widely believe that President Barack Obama will be re-elected in 2012.

According to a new Fox News poll , this number is about double of the 29 percent people who thought so in December.

And the 36 percent of voters who don’t expect him to be re-elected is a major shift from the 64 percent who felt that way earlier in December 2010.

Fox News poll?????

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/05/23/978015/-Fox-News-poll:-57-think-Barack-Obama-will-be-re-elected?via=blog_1

So What’s Wrong With Ed Case? Is He Really Worse Than Joe Lieberman? …Tom DeLay?
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Thursday, when Hawaii’s stellar progressive congresswoman, Mazie Hirono, announced her intention to run for the seat being vacated by her friend and ally Daniel Akaka, we dashed off a quick post that detailed some of the specifics on Ed Case’s long rap sheet of corporate shillery and conservative complicity. When he was in Congress his career was distinguished by two characteristics– he was the closest thing the Democratic caucus had to a conservative Republican and he was the laziest Member of Congress with the worst attendance record.

More here…
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/05/23/978613/-So-Whats-Wrong-With-Ed-Case-Is-He-Really-Worse-Than-Joe-Lieberman-Tom-DeLay?via=siderecent

For my sceario above to work. I think we need the worst possible Republican candidate. Newt, Sarah or Michelle Bachmann????

PS the usual Politic 101 site tricks didn’t work on my posting above. Sorry about that.

Recall petition against Michigan Governor Rick Snyder is live.
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In response to comments and emails I received over the weekend, this morning I did some research to verify that the recall petition circulated by The Committee to Recall Rick Snyder (FireRickSnyder.org) is valid even though Snyder is less than 180 days into his term.

Short answer: yes. Long answer: yes.

Here is a summary of the information I received during a call with the Elections Division of the Michigan Secretary of State’s office:

More here…
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/05/23/978515/-Recall-petition-against-Michigan-Governor-Rick-Snyder-is-live?via=blog_1

Senate battleground polling shows imperative of protecting Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid.
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Public Policy Polling was in the field in four Senate battleground states this month (Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, and Ohio) on behalf of Progressive Change Campaign Committee, Democracy For America, MoveOn.org and CREDO Action, testing on key safety net programs, Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security. These states are key for the Dems, with the reelection of Democratic Sens. Sherrod Brown (OH), Claire McCaskill (MO), John Tester (MT), and Amy Klobuchar (MN) in the offing next year.

The findings should shore up Democratic support of key safety net programs. On Medicare and Medicaid, PPP found:

More here….
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/05/23/978548/-Senate-battleground-polling-shows-imperative-of-protecting-Social-Security,-Medicare,-Medicaid?via=blog_1

Newt: Look at my record. But don’t look at my record.
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Poor Newt. He’s just all over the place.

Two months ago, when he was still in the pre-announcement about announcing his announcement to run for president stage, Newt was happy to run on his record:

“I don’t think I’m perfect. I admitted I had problems. I admitted that I sought forgiveness,” Gingrich said. “But I also think over time, if you look at my record, I’m a pretty effective leader.”

And two weeks ago, when he finally announced his desire to have his ass handed to him by Obama, he was still running on his record:

I worked with President Ronald Reagan in a very difficult period. We got jobs created again, Americans proud of America, and the Soviet Union disappeared.

As Speaker of the House, I worked to reform welfare, balance the budget, control spending, to cut taxes to create economic growth – unemployment came down from 5.6% to under 4. For four years we balanced the budget and paid off $405 billion in debt.

Just the type of leader the Repugs need. Could he be a worse leader than George Bush???

More here..
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/05/23/978506/-Newt:-Look-at-my-record-But-dont-look-at-my-record?via=blog_1

No one expected Ronald Reagan to almost clean sweep all except one state. Minnesota. Mondales home state. There is still a long way to go.

House GOP Proposes Budget Cuts To Domestic, Foreign Food Aid.
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WASHINGTON — House Republicans are targeting domestic nutrition programs and international food assistance as they try to control spending in next year’s budget.

In a bill released Monday, Republicans proposed cutting $832 million – or 12 percent – from this year’s budget for the federal nutrition program that provides food for low-income mothers and children. The 2012 budget proposal for food and farm programs also includes a decrease of almost $457 million, or 31 percent, from an international food assistance program that provides emergency aid and agricultural development dollars to poor countries.

The legislation would provide $71 billion for food stamps, $2 billion less than the Obama administration projected would be necessary for next year.

Republicans who wrote the bill said the cuts in domestic food programs are taken from excess dollars in those accounts, and participants won’t see a decrease in services.

Domestic nutrition programs are mined for dollars in tight budget times because they often have extra money sitting in their accounts. Money is allocated for the programs based on projections of need and food costs, and those needs are sometimes overestimated.

More here…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/23/house-gop-proposes-budget_n_865915.html

White House Beefs Up Online Rapid Response.
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WASHINGTON — The Obama administration has created and staffed a new position tucked inside their communications shop for helping coordinate rapid response to unfavorable stories and fostering and improving relations with the progressive online community.

“This week, Jesse Lee will move from the new media department into a role in the communications department as Director of Progressive Media & Online Response,” read an internal memo from Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer, provided to The Huffington Post. “For the last two years, Jesse has often worn two hats working in new media and serving as the White House’s liaison with the progressive media and online community. Starting this week, Jesse will take on the second role full time working on outreach, strategy and response.”

The post is a new one for this White House. Rapid response has been the purview of the Democratic National Committee (and will continue to be). Lee’s hire, however, suggests that a portion of it will now be handled from within the administration. It also signals that the White House will be adopting a more aggressive engagement in the online world in the months ahead.

The Whitehouse seems to be infinately more aware this time around than last time. About the importance of communicating with your base. Talk about slow learners.

More here…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/23/white-house-online-rapid-response_n_865652.html

David in a safe red seat an unknown Dem candidate.
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NY-26 HOUSE Votes
Corwin (R) 43%
30,772
Davis (Tea) 8%
5,946
Hochul (D) 48%
34,769
Murphy (G) 1%
792

66% counted

As GOP 2012 Field Firms Up, So Does Discontent Over The GOP 2012 Field.
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So the word is out! The GOP field for the 2012 nomination is set. And the enthusiasm is pretty much not palpable. But why is that? By my reckoning, the current field includes:

The Guy Who Invented ObamaCare (Mitt Romney)
The Guy Who Imploded 48 Hours After Announcing (Newt Gingrich)
The Guy Who Is The “Secret Progressive” (Jon Huntsman)
The Pizza Guy (Herman Cain; if you’re not satisfied with your pizza, be sure to check out Cain’s right of return policy)
The Guy With The “Google Problem” (Rick Santorum)
America’s Most Beloved Libertarian (Ron Paul)
America’s Most Beloved Libertarian On Weed (Gary Johnson)
Maybe, America’s Top Internet Troll (Sarah Palin)
Probably, America’s Top Michele Bachmann (Michele Bachmann)
Two Dudes Who The GOP Have Made Into Apostates For Being Anti-Lobbyist and Pro-LGBT Rights, Respectively (Buddy Roemer, Fred Karger)
And Finally, Ol’ What’s His Name, The Guy Who’s Not Mitch Daniels (Tim Pawlenty)

Hey, that includes three people (Romney, Gingrich, and Huntsman) who have, in the past, supported the individual health insurance mandate that’s now a taboo topic in conservative circles.

And so, the National Review’s Rich Lowry is wondering, “Is This It?”

More here..
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/24/republican-2012-field-discontent_n_866416.html

NY-26 HOUSE Votes
Corwin (R) 42%
39,468
Davis (Tea) 9%
8,152
Hochul (D) 48%
44,813
Murphy (G) 1%
1,013
87% reporting

Its all over bar the shouting.

Democrat Kathy Hochul Wins Upset, Medicare Vote Key To Victory.
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Republicans are going to have plenty of questions about their plan to turn Medicare into a voucher program tomorrow morning after Democrats romped to an improbable victory in a special election focused almost entirely on the issue.

Democrat Kathy Hochul lead 48-43 with over 83% of the votes counted and her victory looks to be a strong one — the Associated Press called the race within an hour of the polls closing. Corwin underperformed in key GOP counties while Hochul’s margins in Democratic areas were in line with the party’s high water mark in the district from 2006, a wave year that swept the Republicans out of the majority in the House and Senate. The district is normally a safe seat for Republicans and has never elected a Democrat.

Hochul’s message focused relentlessly on the Paul Ryan budget, which she highlighted in ads, public statements, and debates at every opportunity. Her attacks on its cuts to Medicare benefits and its tax cuts for the wealthy proved impossible for Corwin to overcome, who tried her best to defend the GOP budget cuts before eventually giving in and falsely accusing Hochul of seeking similar cuts while muddying her own position on the plan.

More here…
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/05/democrat-kathy-hochul-win-upset-in-ny-26-medicare-vote-key-to-victory.php?ref=fpa

This line makes it even sweeter:
Corwin and Republican-allied groups significantly outspent Democrats in the race, making her victory that much tougher.

NY-26: Kathy Hochul victory thread.
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An amazing win tonight, no doubt about it. Kathy Hochul not only won, but her share of the vote stands at an impressive 48%. Beltway pundits will try to tell you this race means nothing, on account of Jack Davis’s presence. But Davis getting under 10% (which he indeed did) was supposed to be the kiss of death for Hochul, and it was nothing of the sort. Hochul’s loud-and-clear Medicare message worked, and Dems are taking notice. Indeed, the statements sent out by Nancy Pelosi and DCCC Chair Steve Israel both specifically cited Medicare as a reason for Hochul’s win – and it’s not spin. It’s fact.

More here.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/05/24/978965/-NY-26:-Kathy-Hochul-victory-thread?via=blog_1

Rupert Murdoch uses eG8 to talk up net’s power to transform education.
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Rupert Murdoch, the News Corporation founder and chairman, used his address to the eG8 Forum in Paris on Tuesday to call for more investment in education and “unlocking the potential” of the world’s children.

Murdoch said it was not a question of putting a computer in every school, but concentrating on opening up opportunities for youngsters to flourish by using targeted and tailored software.

News Corp moved into the $500bn (£310bn) US education sector in late 2010, paying about $360m in cash for 90% of technology company Wireless Generation, which provides mobile and web software to enable teachers to use data to assess student progress and deliver personalised learning.

Murdoch said in Paris that “the greatest challenge is human capital … how to find it, how to develop it, how to keep it”. He added that the internet had changed the world in every area except education.

Is this guy for real? He seems to have got the education and newsaper departments confused.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/may/24/murdoch-eg8-invest-education-technology

At the first eG8 conference in France this week, political and Internet leaders lay out the massive importance of the online economy.
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The leaders of the G8 countries joined with leaders of the increasingly essential Internet economy this week for the first-ever eG8 conference in Paris, France, to discuss the future of the Web and its role in the offline world.

The eG8 was organized by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who today delivered the opening keynote and discussion at the conference. Other speakers at eG8 include Google chairman Eric Shmidt, Facebook co-founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Amazon founder and CEO Jeffrey P. Bezos, Groupon CEO Andrew Masson, and News Corp. head Rupert Murdoch, among many others.

Of all the talk at the two-day conference, which precedes the annual G8 economic forum, a single theme permeates: The Internet is a big, big deal. According to research from the McKinsey Global Institute, published by Business Insider and released in conjunction with eG8, the Internet is responsible for approximately 20 percent of economic growth for the 13 countries included in the study, and an estimated 2.9 percent of total worldwide GDP. That makes the Internet a more powerful driver of economic growth than mining, utilities or agriculture.

More here….
http://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/the-internet-fuels-a-new-industrial-revolution-eg8-forum-reveals/

A very good article in the Australian on Tony Winsor.
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THERE’S a golden glow in New England, enhanced by frequent bursts of cargo from Canberra, the occasional vroooom of RAAF jets and the crisp cutting of ribbons right across the House of Tony Windsor.

Like many others, Col Murray, the Mayor of Tamworth in the independent MP’s northeastern NSW seat of power, feels that lovely warmth, too.

“Tony Windsor has got his little piece of sunshine, and I guess that he got the PM up here shows she recognises that he’s got the sunshine, too,” Murray told The Weekend Australian.

In a season of supposedly “tough” budgets, Labor ministers have been making pilgrimages to this already bountiful region to deliver dams, roads, health facilities, training centres and more.

Julia Gillard made a two-day visit to New England this week – an eternity compared with the usual prime ministerial drop-ins of a few hours – and she didn’t come empty-handed or to boot-scoot.

From Whirlpool.

More here…

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/loyal-lieutenant-tony-windsor-royally-rewarded/story-fn59niix-1226059968485

The parrot is an intellectual giant. 👿

Alan Jones impressed by ‘laser’ speed breakthrough
Don’t let this man near your computer
‘Laser beams better than fibre-optics’

Alan Jones lasers in on NBN http://bit.ly/iEsb73

Kathy Hochul Election Results: Did Medicare Sway NY-26 Race?
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WASHINGTON — In the aftermath of Democrat Kathy Hochul’s surprise victory over Republican Jane Corwin in a special House election in western New York, political insiders and pundits are debating what mattered more: The debate over Medicare or the presence of a third candidate — Democrat turned “Tea Party” candidate Jack Davis.

Both arguments have some merit, but the survey data and turnout statistics show a significant shift in the political environment. Democrats now have a potent Medicare message, and that change should give Republicans pause as they look to 2012.

Whatever the explanation, Hochul’s victory was extraordinary and unexpected. Unofficial returns give her just over 47 percent of the vote to 43 percent for Corwin and 9 percent for Davis. Hochul’s share of the vote exceeds what most other Democratic candidates have received in New York’s 26th District over the last 10 years including the 46 percent Barack Obama received in losing the District to John McCain in 2008.

Hochul’s margin was also strengthened by a significant boost in turnout from the traditional Democratic strongholds of Erie and Niagara counties. Those counties contributed 55.4 percent of the vote on Tuesday, compared with between 50 and 51 percent in the last three Congressional elections.

More here…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/25/kathy-hochul-election-results-medicare-ny-26_n_867084.html

The two issues of a Tea Party candidate and the Medicare issue both helped. Will we see a lot more Tea Party candidates run in 2012? I certainly hope so.

Chris B,

This result has implications for the House – I was reading yesterday that the Republicans think that if a House election was held now they would lose their majority.

The Senate calculations, however, do not change markedly. As I said, the get a filibuster proof majority, on paper the Democrats need to win nine out of 10 of the Republican senate seats in the race without losing any of their own. They will almost certainly lose Dakota. So, in reality they need to win 10. This is not going to happen. And that means that the Republicans will be able to block any and all progressive legislation at least until the elections in 2014.

The last two years of Obama’s rule are going to be crucial. If the Democrats can grab momentum and take the Senate then climate change may yet become a problem that can be solved.

Florida’s Governor Rick Scott continues approval plummet in the polls.
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Back in April a poll was taken that showed how unhappy Floridians were with their newly elected Tea Party Governor Rick Scott:

Like many of the newly elected Republican Tea Party Governors, polls are not their friends and Rick Scott of Florida has voters very upset and now would choose Alex Sink over him if they had the chance.

Only three months removed from Governor Rick Scott’s (R) inauguration, a majority of Florida voters now say the state is headed in the wrong direction and that, if they could do it all over again, they wouldn’t have elected Scott in the first place, according to a new Suffolk University poll.

In the poll, 54% of voters said the state was headed in the wrong direction, compared to 30% who said it was going the right way. Further, just under half (49%) of all voters said they disapproved of Scott’s job performance, versus only 28% who said they approved. Scott’s approval rating is so bad that the poll found him losing a hypothetical do-over election to Democrat Alex Sink by a ten-point margin, 41% to 31%.

It’s too bad that when voters got angry they turned to phonies like Rick Scott. The Democrats didn’t help themselves at the time, but after Republicans destroyed our economy, electing alleged criminals is not the answer either.

More here…
http://crooksandliars.com/john-amato/floridas-governor-rick-scott-continues-

David. Other than saying its not going to happen. How about posting articles that give an indication that things may not go that way?

Paul Ryan: Don’t Blame Me for NY-26 Loss! It Was Evil Democrats’ Demagoguery on Medicare.
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Apparently Paul Ryan needed a place to come lick his wounds after the Republicans’ loss in New York’s 26th District special election loss last night, and the crew over at Morning Joe was more than happy to help him mend his bruised ego.

Given Scarborough’s screaming tirade yesterday about greedy seniors who want to keep their Medicare being just like someone who wants to eat steak and chocolate cake every day, along with the months on end of fawning coverage of him he’s received on this show, Ryan had no doubt he was coming into friendly territory this morning.

More here..
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/paul-ryan-dont-blame-him-ny-26-loss-it-was

David. Dakota? North Dakota needs a 40% swing. South Dakota not running. Maybe you mean Montana. Which needs a 1% swing.

Katters party is Country Alliance – they keptclaiming they were all independents at last Vic election but Katter spilt the beans on ABC radio then denied it. Check out their website.. They are the Shooters and Fishers (theyalso deny that). Their whole policy platform is based on
We Hate The Greens .
This will put the spotlight on them so its a good thing – they polled 20% in some seats at vic electionand almost got into upper house. They’re One Nationwith guns 🙁
hamilton island gorgeous … Love those golf buggies :mrgreen:

Who Will Win in 2012? The Smile Can Be Telling.
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We can predict the answer to that question more than the chorus of political analysts might let on. If the outcomes of the last dozen presidential contests are any indication, the answer lies in which candidate boasts the winningest — or most genuine — smile. This is the cheerier candidate, presumably, the one with whom voters would prefer to have a beer.

In explaining the trajectory of presidential elections, U.S. history textbooks and professors don’t sufficiently discuss the intuitive voter in American politics. In the last half-century, personality has seemed to dictate who ascends to the presidency more than any ideological pendulum.

If we study election-by-election, the candidate with the more authentic smile won. The first (and winning) candidate, listed in each match-up below, generally appeared happier along the campaign trail.

Thats very good news for Obama. Lets hope the Republicans don’t read this and elect a sour puss. Does that mean a sour look would cause a bigger swing????

More here…
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/05/25/who_will_win_in_2012_smile_for_the_camera_109936.html

The GOP’s cast of clowns.
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On Sunday night, Tim Pawlenty released another of his oddball videos, reminding people yet again that he was running for president.

Such periodic reminders aren’t a bad idea, since it only takes 10 minutes for the average person to forget he exists. But at least give him props — he’s actually attempting to be the Bob Dole of 2012 in a year in which nearly all serious Republicans have decided they have better things to do than lose to President Obama. So rather than a high-caliber presidential field, the Republicans have put together a cavalcade of clowns.

Will the quality of candidate effect the outcome? The lower the Repug quality or the bigger the clown the bigger the swing?
More here..
http://thehill.com/opinion/columnists/markos-moulitas/163049-the-gops-cast-of-clowns

55 Jen Welcome back. I hope you had a good holiday? You didn’t submit any reports from our overseas bureaux.

The Crystal Ball’s First 2011 Take on 2012’s Electoral College.
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The Crystal Ball’s First 2011 Take on 2012’s Electoral College

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics April 21st, 2011

With 18 months to go until November 2012, there is exactly one use for a current projection of the 2012 Electoral College results. This is merely a baseline from which we can judge more reliable projections made closer to the election. Where did we start–before we knew the identity of the Republican nominee for president, the state of the economy in fall 2012 and many other critical facts?

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2011042101/

Government Shutdown: Polls Show Voters Blamed GOP For 1995 Crisis.
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WASHINGTON – How will the public react if the federal government shuts down next week?

Public polling around the two partial shutdowns between November 1995 and January 1996 provides a sense of what to expect, although reactions then may have been unique to that era’s circumstances and outsized personalities.

The first partial shutdown occurred on November 14, 1995, after President Clinton and Republican leaders failed to reach an agreement to keep the government running. More than 800,000 “non-essential” federal workers were furloughed.

That night, Gallup conducted a national survey for CNN and USA Today that showed nearly twice as many Americans blaming Republican leaders in Congress for the shutdown (49 percent) rather than Clinton (26 percent) or both equally (19 percent).

More here…

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/30/voters-blamed-gop-for-1995-shutdown_n_842769.html

Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly. Nate Silver.
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Every election cycle has its winners and losers: not just the among the candidates, but also the pollsters.

On Tuesday, polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports — which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News — badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates.

Other polling firms, like SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac University, produced more reliable results in Senate and gubernatorial races. A firm that conducts surveys by Internet, YouGov, also performed relatively well.

What follows is a preliminary analysis of polls released to the public in the final 21 days of the campaign. Our process here is quite simple: we’ve taken all such polls in our database, and assessed how accurate they were, on average, in predicting the margin separating the two leading candidates in each race. For instance, a poll that had the Democrat winning by 2 percentage points in a race where the Republican actually won by 4 would have an error of 6 points.

We’ve also assessed whether a company’s polls consistently missed in either a Democratic or Republican direction — that is, whether they were biased. The hypothetical poll I just described would have had a 6 point Democratic bias, for instance.

The analysis covers all polls issued by firms in the final three weeks of the campaign, even if a company surveyed a particular state multiple times. In our view, this provides for a more comprehensive analysis than focusing solely on a firm’s final poll in each state, since polling has a tendency to converge in the final days of the campaign, perhaps because some firms fear that their results are an outlier and adjust them accordingly.

(After a couple of weeks, when results in all races have been certified, we’ll update our official pollster ratings, which use a more advanced process that attempts to account, for instance, for the degree of difficulty in polling different types of races.)

More here…
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

Senate Republicans Vote Overwhelmingly To End Medicare.
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The GOP continued its bloody walk into the Medicare buzzsaw Wednesday, when 40 out of 47 Senate Republicans voted in support of the House GOP budget, and its plan to phase out and privatize the popular entitlement program.

The test vote failed by a vote of 57-40. But the roll call illustrates that Medicare privatization — along with deep cuts to Medicaid and other social services — remains the consensus position of the GOP despite the growing political backlash against them.

Voting with all of the Democrats against debating the plan were Sens. Scott Brown (R-MA), Olympia Snowe (R-ME) — both 2012 incumbents — along with Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK). Rand Paul (R-KY) voted against it because it wasn’t radical enough.

Sens. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Pat Roberts (R-KS), and Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) did not vote.

Democrats intentionally scheduled the vote less than 24 hours after a Democrat won a special election in New York’s 26th — and heavily Republican — congressional district, on the strength of defending Medicare from a GOP onslaught. The outcome of that election heightened the political stakes, but sent few Republicans bolting for the exits.

Keep hitting them around the head with a bit of 4 by 2 on that issue.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/05/senate-republicans-split-on-vote-to-end-medicare.php?ref=fpa

Medicare will influence red states across the country.
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The election last night showed that Democrats have the keys to drive the budget debate and play offense in 2012,” Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in a statement. “The implications of this election extend to Senate races in battleground states and red states across the country. The results provide clear evidence that Democratic senators and senate candidates will be able to play offense across the country by remaining focused on the Republican effort to end Medicare and force seniors to pay thousands more for health care costs.”

If the Democats can tie Obamas popularity along with the unpopularity of a republican candidate and the Medicare issue all together with a well run scare campaign, they have a unique opportunity to do very well.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/05/democrats-look-to-build-on-ny-26-medicare-success.php?ref=fpc

ChrisB,

North Dakota, which is currently Democrat, will likely be won by the Republicans according to the Cook report, Sabato and Roll Call. However, it has to be admitted that we are a long way out from the election. But the polls and their aggregators are all the definite information that we have to go on – speculation about what the Tea Party may or may not do or what the economy may or may not do or how big a role health care will play in getting independents to vote Democrat and Democrats to turn out is just speculation.

As to articles, there is no need: simple mathematics tells you that winning nine out of the 10 available Republican seats while not losing one of their own is going to be extremely difficult for the Democrats.

I have only looked back to 1992, but never in that time has a party come close to taking 90 per cent of the seats on offer. The best that the Democrats have done in that period was winning eight out of 23 on offer; the best the Republicans have done was winning nine out of 22 on offer.

So, it is extremly tricky. On that basis, the likely best Democratic outcome, assuming that 2012 is a swing year to them and assuming that North Dakota holds, is winning four out of the 10 seats on offer. To win nine, the Democrats would be extraordinary.

At the moment, polls – excluding Rasmussen, as you dislike them – show a five per cent swing to the Democrats, from a four-point loss last time to a one-point victory.

Lugar (Indiana), Snowe (Maine), Hatch (Utah) and Barrasso (Wyoming) are basically *untouchable*, with margins of 74 per cent, 53 per cent, 31 per cent and 46 per cent.

For the Democrats to win any of those seats is effectively impossible.

Re the presidential race, if the Republicans do not pick Romney (or possibly Huntsman) then they are going to get defeated by a good margin. If they pick Romney, on the other hand, they will simply lose.

David. Where are you getting those figures from?
Tennessee 3% required. Last time an African American stood and almost won. In the end his colour was used against him.
Nevada 14%
Massachusetts 5% Big number of Democrats registered. Which is a very big help.
Arizona 9% (retiring). Easier.
Connecticut unknown. Because of an independent.
Texas 40% A bit too high and it is Texas. Although Kay is retiring. That makes it easier.
Try here for my figures.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2012

Maine has Tea Party problems. Which may cause Snowe problems.
Kent Conrad has a 40% lead in North Dakota.
Mississippi Roger Wicker only won by 10%. 1996 it was a Democratic Party seat.

Mathematically anything within 10% is gettable.

David. Have a look at number 64. It explains how to do it. Use Medicare as the issue. A very bad presidential candidate will also help. Palin/Bachman will help.

ChrisB,

That is the exact same place that I am getting my figures.

Kent Conrad is not running at this election and at present there are no Democratic candidates at all. This is why Dakota is listed by most as a Republican likely win.

If mathematically anything within 10 per cent is possible, then the impossible list is the one that I gave.

The seats available for the Democrats are:

Wyoming, Utah, Texas, Tennessee, Nevada, Mississippi, Massachusetts, Maine, Indiana and Arizona.

Cross off Maine, Utah, Indiana and Wyoming.

That leaves an absolute maximum of six for the Democrats. And that means they *cannot* get a filibuster proof majority.

As for post 64, the Democrats may well ‘do well’. But they will not win nine out of 10 of the Republican seats up for election. They will not even win 7 of them.

And, yes, a poor Republican candidate for President will help the Democrats. They are crazy if they do not nominate someone more in the mainstream (which basically leaves Romney, Huntsman and Pawlenty). But unless it is Donald Trump’s toupee it will not help the Democrats enough to win Maine, Utah, Indiana or Wyoming …

Utah, Indiana or Wyoming … never said they would. Hopefully the Tea Party will cause a backlash in Maine.

Paddy – re MrOnTheMoon’s use of paws… As my typing indictes i am much better
at poking things with sticks . 😉

Chris B,

Regarding the issue of you never saying that the Democrats would pick up those seats, if they do not pick up those seats they will not reach 60, let alone the 62 that you somehow seem to think is a slim possibility (or at least you did when you wrote the OP.)

To reach 62, the Democrats need to win nine out of the 10 Republican seats up for grabs. That 10 seat lot includes the 4 that I have mentioned. So, the maximum that they could pick up is six, which means that they get to 59 at the absolute maximum. No filibuster proof majority for the Democrats.

You are certainly right David. Have you thought of taking up maths? Well I just hope they get the majority again.

Chris B,

The crucial election year for the Democrats will be 2014. If they can grab the super-majority then and get back the reps, they can really do some great things in Obama’s last two years.

Damn! We’ve gotta wait another 2 years. They had better do it right this time.

Absolutely brilliant Paddy.
They are squeeling loud and long now that they can’t print exclusive bullshit.

HaHaHaHa. I don’t know who came up wit the idea but it is a doosie.

Chris Mitchell will be jumping off the gap this arvo. :mrgreen:

WI-Sen: Feingold beats Thompson, Dems lead in nearly all matchups.
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First, I want to get something out of the way: Tommy Thompson is not popular. He’s also not beloved, nor is he remembered fondly from his tenure as governor. He’s decidedly mediocre, as PPP’s third consecutive poll shows. Forty-two percent of respondents have a favorable view of him, and an identical 42% have an unfavorable view. March of 2010 (PDF), he was at 40-44. These are, simply put, not strong numbers.

More here including polls..
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/05/24/978840/-WI-Sen:-Feingold-beats-Thompson,-Dems-lead-in-nearly-all-matchups?via=blog_1

paddy I really like the one about the $8 billion abortion complex in Topeka Kansas.

The dumb fuckers in seppoland have now woke to find that their heroes that they re-elected in the midterms are not any different to the arseholes they got rid of in 2008.
Now they have buyers remorse and it serves them right for listening to fucks news.
And slimy Roo has 50% Australians in the same frame of mind ready to re-elect the party that shafts them completely.

With most of the nation’s statehouses under Republican control, they have inflicted harsh cutbacks in education, health care and public safety, while assailing every public employee, from teachers to firefighters and cops.

Evidently, the people do not approve of these assaults on the standard of living of the American middle class.

According to recent public opinion polls, in fact, the people feel a keen sense of “buyer’s remorse” for supporting the Republicans last November. From the Canadian border down to the Florida coast, swing-state voters are expressing deep regret over the results of the midterm elections.

In Wisconsin, the latest surveys show that substantial majorities now regret electing Gov. Scott Walker, who has earned national fame (or infamy) for rescinding the collective bargaining rights of his state’s public workers. Three months after the end of the mass protests against Walker’s actions, the nonpartisan Public Policy Polling firm found that 54 percent of his Wisconsin constituents disapprove of his performance, while only 43 percent approve. Asked whether they would support or oppose his removal from office in a recall election, 50 percent said yes and only 47 percent said no.

http://www.opednews.com/populum/linkframe.php?linkid=132332

96 gaffhook Exactly what I have been saying gaffy. Maine is the same. That is plain. (Apologies to Pygmalion). The Tea Party are in control. On the positive side. There is going to be a number of states turn very blue from this. Florida, Ohio and Wisconson. If those three do. It will be very, very, hard for the Repugs to win power for a long time.

😆

Massive Marmite shipment seized off the coast of Denmark
Danish security forces say they have seized 18 tonnes of Marmite bound for Copenhagen after a twelve hour gunfight during which at least sixty people were killed.

http://tinyurl.com/3w5k3da
Bastards!!! They’ll have to rip the vegemite from my cold dead hands. :mrgreen:

So much for the marmite, what about getting your arm right.

The GOP is self destructing and that is a good thing.

So now it’s official. The 2012 campaign will be about the future of Medicare. (Yes, it will also be about jobs, but the Republicans haven’t come up with any credible ideas on that front, and the Democrats seem incapable of doing what needs to be done.)

This spells trouble for the GOP. Polls show an overwhelming majority of Americans — even a majority of Republican voters — want to preserve Medicare. They don’t want to turn it over to private insurers.

http://www.opednews.com/articles/The-Republican-Death-Wish-by-Robert-Reich-110528-497.html

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