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Iowa Republican Caucuses

Showtime!

Voting is underway in the Republic Caucuses in Iowa. With less than 1% of the count Ron Paul lead the pack. With 3% of the count Rick Santorum took lead position. With 6% counted Rick Santorum held 1st. place with 1,229 votes just 25 votes ahead of Ron Paul, but just now the count clicked over to 11% and Ron Paul takes the lead, followed by Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, and Michele Bachmann.


Live results here.

UPDATE: Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum share dibs on first place, Ron Paul not far behind. Newt Gingrich in forth place closes the door on the Iowa circus leaving Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann alone in the dark.

1,289 replies on “Iowa Republican Caucuses”

I was due to go back to work today but sprained my ankle this morning (that’ll teach me for going on a health kick) so I get to go the full wonk all day. Interesting that it is so close and that Republicans just can’t bring themselves to vote for the candidate with the best chance of beating Obama (ie Romney).

I’m also disapointed that young voters are voying for Paul. He is a rolled gold nutter. The young are drawn to his policy of reduced defence spending. He is the most socially conservative of the candidates. He would put the US into a depression with contracted spending.

Looking forward to Jon Stewart’s return tonight.

Some info from a tweet……..

According to CNN only 1,000 more Iowans turned out to caucus then 2008. So much for the tea party surge. Where are they all?

Hi there Miss Cat – happy new year!

the parallels between the US and here are scary – the US could end up with any one of a number of right wing nutters as POTUS and we could end up with Abbott – god forbid.
or is it possible that common sense will prevail and the expectations of voters be realistic as to what has been achievable for both current governments given the perfect storm of a GFC, increasing climate change and unstable global geopolitical situation – not to mention the poison spread by Rupert’s empire just to name a few issues.

Despite the shortcomings of both Obama and Gillard they have pulled off some significant reforms – and the current alternatives don’t bear thinking about
🙄

Pundits saying Newt is embittered at what he thinks is a negative campaign by Romney and may do damage to Mitt come hell or highwater.

KL, i think Newt is gonna go scorched earth on Romney from now on. Newt has always been about Newt, and in his mind Romney has wronged him.

Romney v The Rest could be as long and as bitter as Obama v Hilary.

I’m not so sure they will coalesce as well after though. The Conservatives are really divided. All but the Big Money part of the GOP hate him.

Obama will win re-election easily to very easily.

I hope you’re right re Obama’s easy victory. I think he’ll win but I don’t think it’s going to be a big win. The unemployment levels are still are huge issue.

Ticsters, just to show what a tragic wonk I am, I’m enrolled in a course at Sydney Uni on the US Elections. Part one starts next month and focusses of the GOP candidates, then part 2 is closer to the election.

2012 is a great year for US political tragics like me. 🙂

Barring protests and recounts. I think that 8 vote lead might be the final score Cat.
I can’t wait to see Jon Stewart’s take on today’s circus. 🙂

High there Catrina Hope you had a happy holiday season.

The cynic in me says that any old 8 electronically controlled votes is enough.

Yep John Stewart and Bill Maher should have some fun now, and the Rude Pundit hasn’t missed either.
I thought there for a minute he was describing life under abbott and the tossers that make up the LNP.

Just had dinner with an American friend – she is hopeful Romney will win because she reckons that there is no way right -wing Christians will vote for a Mormon, so it will be a wipeout for the GOP.

Paddy, Katielou, Jen, Harry, Gaffy … hugs all round! And for a little bit of irony from Nate Silver…

A precinct in the town of Clinton in Clinton, County, Iowa will determine the winner of the Iowa caucus.

🙂

p.s. post updated

Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum share dibs on first place, Ron Paul not far behind. Newt Gingrich in forth place closes the door on the Iowa circus leaving Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann alone in the dark.

By Post Author

Montana Supreme Court Bars Unlimited Corporate Campaign Contributions.
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The Montana Supreme Court issued a ruling last week that could possibly cause a Supreme Court challenge to the Citizens United decision. In a 2-1 decision, the court barred corporations in Montana from making contributions to campaigns.

Via SCOTUSblog:

The Montana majority, in an opinion written by Chief Justice Mike McGrath, said that a closely similar ban could withstand the Citizens United ruling because the Supreme Court had left open the possibility that a “compelling interest” would allow such a measure, and the majority found that interest in Montana’s past history and its present economic and political climate. Corporations are more likely to have corrupting influence with their political spending in Montana, the majority said, because it is a small state, its economy still depends upon outside corporate interests, and its political campaigns are not very expensive so they do not bring out heavy donations by individuals to compete with vast corporate treasuries.

More here…

http://crooksandliars.com/karoli/montana-supreme-court-bars-unlimited-corpor

#7 HarryH “Obama will win re-election easily to very easily.”

I agree at the moment. Still a long way to go though.

News from the Votemaster
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Iowa: Romney 24.6%, Santorum 24.6%, Paul 21.4%, Gingrich 13.3%

Mitt Romney, who ran the 2002 Olympics, won a gold medal himself yesterday by winning the Iowa caucuses–but only about eight votes ahead of Rick Santorum. This result could yet change as 12 precincts still haven’t reported. In the Olympics, winning a race by a tenth of a second is still a win and the amount does not matter so much. Here it does. The news today will be about how Santorum is now the leading conservative challenger and how this is likely to now become a two-man race. It’s not going to happen. But before getting into more detail, here are the raw numbers.

Much more here…
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Jan04.html#item-1

US elections, the Rude One and a whole swag of lunatic repug candidates
– it’s good to be back 😆

Obama NLRB Recess Appointments Thrill Labor, Infuriate Business.
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Doubling down on President Barack Obama’s bold recess appointment of Richard Cordray to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the White House announced Wednesday that Obama would also use his recess powers to fill three vacancies on the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), the federal agency charged with enforcing labor law.

The move is sure to further infuriate Republicans, many of whom feuded all last year with an NLRB they view as overly union-friendly and anti-business.

The labor board lost its quorum yesterday as the term of board member Craig Becker came to an end — essentially crippling the agency, no doubt to the pleasure of many conservatives. Although the recess appointments will probably be challenged legally by business groups, the move could allow the board to continue operating without disruption. According to the White House, Obama plans to appoint union lawyer Richard Griffin, current Labor Department official Sharon Block, and NLRB counsel Terence Flynn.

Labor groups who had applauded the NLRB for many of its recent decisions quickly hailed Obama for the appointments. In a statement, AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka commended Obama for “exercising his constitutional authority to ensure that crucially important agencies protecting workers and consumers are not shut down by Republican obstructionism.”

More here…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/04/obama-nlrb-recess-appointments-labor-unions_n_1184285.html

‘Citizens United’ Backlash: Montana Supreme Court Upholds State’s Corporate Campaign Spending Ban.
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The Montana Supreme Court has put itself on a collision course with the U.S. Supreme Court by upholding a century-old state law that bans corporate spending in state and local political campaigns.

The law, which was passed by Montana voters in 1912 to combat Gilded Age corporate control over much of Montana’s government, states that a “corporation may not make … an expenditure in connection with a candidate or a political party that supports or opposes a candidate or a political party.” In 2010, the U.S. Supreme Court, in its landmark Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission decision, struck down a similar federal statute, holding that independent electoral spending by corporations “do not give rise to corruption or the appearance of corruption” that such laws were enacted to combat.

That reasoning — described by the Citizens United dissenters as a “crabbed view of corruption” — compelled 23 of the 24 states with independent spending bans to stop enforcing their restrictions, according to Edwin Bender, executive director of the Helena, Mont.-based National Institute on Money in State Politics. Montana, however, stood by its 1912 law, which led several corporations to challenge it as unconstitutional.

By a 5-2 vote this past Friday, the Montana Supreme Court declined to recognize the common understanding that Citizens United bars all laws limiting independent electoral spending. Instead, Chief Justice Mike McGrath, writing on behalf of the majority, called on the history surrounding the state law to show that corporate money, even if not directly contributed to a campaign, can give rise to corruption.

More here…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/04/citizens-united-montana-supreme-court-corporate-spending_n_1182168.html

U.S.-Iran Tensions: Mideast Showdown Builds As United States Tightens Military Ties To Israel.
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Storm clouds darkening over the Middle East suggest a growing peril for the United States and the possibility of a new war that could embroil the U.S., Israel, Iran and others in a bloody, costly fight.

Behind this week’s exchange of threats between Iran and the United States over access to the Persian Gulf, seasoned analysts see a perfect storm of factors that could trigger armed conflict.

Iran’s work on nuclear weapons is fast approaching a “red line,” the crossing of which both the United States and Israel say is unacceptable and may have to be halted by force. Washington and European capitals are preparing new sanctions that would sever Iran from the international banking system, a move that would cripple its economy and that Tehran has said it would consider a provocation to war. Growing violence in Syria threatens to spill over its borders with Israel, Lebanon and Turkey, a NATO ally.

More here…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/04/us-iran-tensions-israel-joint-military-exercises_n_1183952.html

Anyone But Romney
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A group of movement conservatives has called an emergency meeting in Texas next weekend to find a “consensus” Republican presidential hopeful, Politico reports.

The group is “concerned that a vote split between Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum among base voters could enable Mitt Romney to grab the GOP nomination. A source who shared the invitation said the meeting was about how to avoid such a possibility.”

http://politicalwire.com

Al Qaeda on the Ropes: One Fighter’s Inside Story.
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Deep among North Waziristan’s mountains, far from any village, Hafiz Hanif finally tracked down the remnants of his old al Qaeda cell last summer. The 17-year-old Afghan had wondered why he hadn’t heard from his former comrades in arms. They didn’t even answer his text messages in May, after the death of the man they all called simply the Sheik: Osama bin Laden. Now Hanif saw why. Only four of the cell’s 15 fighters were left, huddled in a two-room mud-brick house, with little or no money or food. Except for their familiar but haggard faces, they looked nothing like the al Qaeda he once trained with and fought beside. They welcomed him warmly but didn’t encourage him to stay. They said the cell’s commander, a Kuwaiti named Sheik Attiya Ayatullah, had gone into hiding. The others had either run off or died. “Why should we call you back just to get killed in a drone attack?” Hanif’s friends explained.

More here…
http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2012/01/01/al-qaeda-on-the-ropes-one-fighter-s-inside-story.html

10 Katie Lou

That course sounds like fun. As maddening and pathetic and cringeworthy and hyporitical and false etc etc all this election stuff is, i too raise my hand rather sheepishly as a wonk and transfixed by the stuff haha.

I know one thing for sure. There is no-one currently in this Repug race that will trouble Obama. However i think the next Repug primary will be stacked with quality conservative candidates. And the winner might just have the honor of denying poor Hilary again.

Enjoy the course.

that course sounds fantastic KatieLou –
I expect that we will all benefit from our hardwork and knowledge 😉

Top China airlines to ignore EU carbon tax, body says
BBC China is one of the world’s fastest growing airline markets
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China’s biggest airlines will not pay a new European Union tax aimed at cutting carbon emissions, their trade body has said. On 1 January, the EU brought airlines under its Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), which levies a charge on flights based on their carbon emissions.

Chai Haibo of the China Air Transport Association said that its members would not co-operate with the ETS.

However, the EU said it would not back down if the airlines refused to comply.

It won’t be easy but I certainly hope it works.

More here…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16421117

No doubt colin Myler will attack Seweroo with a couple of limp lettuce leaves now that he is in a position to take him and jimmy the jaw on.

He is also relishing the prospect of taking on his former boss, Rupert Murdoch, who owns the News’s arch rival, the New York Daily Post – but more particularly doing battle with his son James, who is in the process of relocating to New Corporation’s New York headquarters from London, where he oversaw News of the World publisher News International.

Asked how he felt about taking on the Murdochs, Myler said. “It’s going to be fun … there is a touch of irony about it.”

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/jan/05/myler-looks-forward-murdoch?newsfeed=true

Hmmmm! It all sounds so familiar he could well be describing Oz MSM, but this is Mr Thurlbecks, one of those thrown under the bus by SeweRoo, road to Damascus descriptions of the current tabloids he dutifully laid down his life for pre hacking revelations.

“And after a raft of phone-hacking admissions and allegations, we are no longer seen as the gruff but dependable watchdog.”

He said tabloids are out of touch with their readers, especially the young, who see “our tone and style as crass, heavy-handed and old fashioned” and not very cutting edge.

“Vicious character assassinations, bogus public interest defences, gross invasions of privacy, sensational misleading headlines, cliche ridden copy. They [the young] don’t like the cut of your jib or mine. And they don’t buy us in numbers that matter any more.”

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/jan/05/neville-thurlbeck-tabloids-readers

File-Sharing Religion ‘Kopimism’ Officially Recognised By Swedish Government.
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The file-sharing religion known as ‘Kopimism’ has been officially recognised as a religion by Swedish authorities, making file-sharing itself a “holy act” for its followers.

Known as “Kopimists”, these believers treat CTRL+C and CTRL+V as holy symbols, and call the sharing of information online “kopyacting”.

Lead by 19-year-old philosophy student Isak Gerson, the religious group needed to apply three times officially before they were given the thumbs up.

But despite the recognition, this does not mean file-sharing is legal in Sweden – just that the religion of Kopimism is now official.

More here…
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/01/05/swedish-file-sharing-religion-kopimism_n_1185914.html?ref=uk

Chris Hedges “Brace Yourself! The American Empire Is Over & The Descent Is Going To Be Horrifying!”
While this appears to be a ridiculously long “interview”.
(Nearly 3 hrs!) I’ve only listened to the first 10 mins, but the guy does speak a lot of sense. I might just listen to it while watching the cricket.
(It will probably take longer to finish. 😆 )
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zotYU21qcU&feature=youtu.be

Another one joins the illustrious parade of those arrested in connection with SeweRoo and his phone hacking.
A 47 year old woman was arrested today for allegedly trying to pervert the course of justice. In my jargon that would probably mean bribing the plods. Ah well you can’t help bad luck eh.

Scotland Yard said she is the 17th arrest under its Operation Weeting probe into mobile phone interceptions.

The suspect – who is not a police officer – was arrested on suspicion of attempting to pervert the course of justice.

A Scotland Yard spokesman said: “The woman was arrested at approximately 6.55am … she is currently in custody at an Essex police station.
“She is the 17th person to be arrested as part of Operation Weeting, the investigation into phone hacking.”

She is the first Weeting arrest since private investigator Glenn Mulcaire was released on bail until March over allegations of phone hacking and perverting the course of justice.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/phone-hacking/8996731/Phone-hacking-woman-arrested.html

Paddy
She has already been arrested and is on police bail, or whatever they call it. Then again there would be no reason she could not be arrested on further charges and put under stricter bail.

Presidents Who Don’t Win Bigger Don’t Win
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Joshua Spivak notes that presidents who are re-elected almost always improve on their original election results.

“Twenty-four presidents have sought and received their party’s nomination for re-election; 15 of them won. Of those 15, only one — Woodrow Wilson — received fewer electoral votes in his re-election campaign and still managed to win re-election. And only Andrew Jackson may have received a smaller percentage of the popular vote in his re-election campaign — although, back when Jackson was re-elected, not all states counted popular votes, so it’s hard to say for sure.”

http://politicalwire.com

49
Gaffy It gets even better than that.
Just in from The Guardian. 😆 😆
Breaking news:
Cheryl Carter, PA to Rebekah Brooks for 19 years, understood to have been arrested this morning by police investigating phone hacking. More details soon …

Good news for the US and especially Obama. 200,000 new jobs in December – that was 50,000 higher than expected. And the unemployment rate fell to 8.5%.

‘The Obamas’: Book Reveals Friction Between Rahm Emanuel, Michelle Obama (UPDATE).

Then-White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel offered his resignation to President Barack Obama in the winter of 2010 after a series of columns appeared depicting him as the lone element keeping the Obama presidency intact. According to then senior adviser David Axelrod, Emanuel understood that the stories “were an embarrassment” to the president. The president, already suffering from a setback to his health care reform effort, declined Emanuel’s offer to resign, despite being convinced that his chief of staff was the main source for the columns.

“I’m not accepting it,” Obama replied. “Your punishment is that you have to stay here and get this bill done. I’m not letting you off the hook.”

That revelation is one of the more explosive included in “The Obamas,” a new book by Jodi Kantor of The New York Times about the first few years of the Obama administration and the strains that it produced on the president’s marriage.

The dramatics that surrounded the passage of health care reform — culminating in Emanuel’s near-resignation — reflect the type of high-pitched struggle that routinely erupted between Emanuel and the first lady during the first two years of the Obama administration. The two jockeyed for influence over the president even before he formally took office.

More on Michelle here…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/06/the-obamas-book-jodi-kantor_n_1190100.html

I tend to agree with Michelle. It shows poor planning and failure to learn from previous run ins with the GOP. Lets hope they don’t make the same mistakes again.

Romney Tax Plan Mainly Benefits the Wealthy
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The non-partisan Tax Policy Center analyzed Mitt Romney’s tax proposals and, according to the Wall Street Journal, “concluded that Mr. Romney’s plan would reduce taxes significantly for high-income earners (by 6.9% or $146,000 for households making more than $1 million), and increase federal deficits by $180 billion in 2015 compared to current tax levels.”

And despite Romney’s claims, his plan would also raise taxes slightly for low-income families.

Associated Press: “Households making between $50,000 and $75,000 would get small tax cuts, averaging 2.2 percent, or about $250, the study said. People making more than $1 million would get tax cuts averaging 15 percent, or about $146,000.”

Thats exactly what we need in the run up to 2012.
http://politicalwire.com

Being an Attractive Politician Gets You on TV.
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“Maybe looks aren’t everything, but new research suggests that more physically attractive members of Congress get more coverage on network television,” according to the New York Times.

“Two Israeli professors concluded that members whom a student survey judged to be better looking appeared more frequently on television — but not radio or in newspapers. The researchers argued that the networks were trying to attract larger audiences.”

Atlantic Wire: “So who are these sultry lawmakers and what kind of TV coverage have they garnered? Here’s a look at the most physically attractive members of Congress according to the survey of students.”

Michelle, Chelsea Clinton & Lizzy Warren.

http://politicalwire.com

76 Chris B Please Tweet this article and link to it in many ways as possible. I know it is a Murdoch paper. But in this cas we HAVE to overlook the issue.

Kerrey Exploring a Return to the Senate
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Former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D-NE) “has decided to visit with Nebraskans next week before reaching a final decision on whether to step into the 2012 Senate race,” the Lincoln Journal Star reports.

“A number of friends and close political associates said Friday they believe Kerrey is inclined to seek the Senate seat that will be vacated by Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson at the end of the year.”
http://politicalwire.com

Ron Paul and Rand Paul Attack Republicans, Shake Up GOP Race.
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If Ron Paul wanted to be the presidential nominee of the Republican Party, it would make political sense for him to say something nice about Republicans from time to time.

But Ron Paul has never wanted to make political sense. He wants to make waves, and that’s just what he was doing in New Hampshire Friday, three days after finishing a strong third in the Iowa caucuses and positioned for a repeat performance in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary.

Is this an indication that Ron Paul will stand as an independant?
I certainly hope so. It will hugely increase Obama’s chance of a landslide.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/01/07/ron-paul-and-rand-paul-attack-republicans-shake-up-gop-race.html

Scientology Insider Emails Attack on Church Finances.
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Jan 7, 2012 12:00 AM EST
Former official Debbie Cook’s email to 12,000 church members alleges financial wrongdoing and a $1 billion hoard. A look at the shocking missive from one of the truest believers.
On New Year’s Day, the Church of Scientology, no stranger to scandal, was treated to yet another dose, this time from a former church official named Debbie Cook.
In an email Cook sent to an astonishing 12,000 people—arguably the most dedicated core of the group–she accused Scientology’s leadership of hoarding more than $1 billion in donations; spending lavishly on new churches; punishing former executives with draconian measures; and overselling Scientology books and services to members already stretched by high-pressure sales tactics.

More here…
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/01/07/scientology-insider-emails-attack-on-church-finances.html

Chris B @ 82

Ron Paul is an idealogue. I think he will run as an independent. He seriously believes what he’s saying and he’s got hoards of nutters worshipping at this feet.

The opposite view is that he won’t run because it will damage his son’s career chances with the GOP. I guess that’s the argument the GOP will run to try to get him to stop running.

Hit And Run: Boeing Leaves Kansas After Promising The State Jobs For $35 Billion Contract And Slew Of Tax Breaks.
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This week, defense and aircraft manufacturing giant Boeing announced that it will be closing the Boeing Defense, Space & Security facility in Wichita by the end of 2013, which “means the loss of 2,100 well-paying jobs at its Kansas facility, which was once considered the centerpiece of Wichita’s claim as the air capital of the world.” Boeing will instead be performing the operations that were scheduled for Wichita in San Antonio and Oklahoma City.

Boeing’s decision — which it blames on possible defense cuts that may take place in the future — is devastating to Wichita community, which also includes more than four hundred Boeing suppliers. Local news station Fox 4 covered the closure in a video report. Watch it:

KatieLou: Here’s what happens to company tax breaks.
More here…
http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2012/01/06/399138/hit-and-run-boeing-35-billion/

Chris B – our disagreement was about harmonisation of tax between different countries. I don’t think that is feasible or desirable, but some degree of coordination may make sense.

Boeing is an example of the use of tax breaks at all the levels of government in the US – ie the US has no harmonisation domestically. The states and cities in the US have different tax systems, rates and concessions, as I pointed out in our earlier discussion.

Gingrich only has himself to blame for the engative ads against him. Oh the irony.

Gingrich, for the last few years, has been partners in self-promotion with Citizens United, the group that prompted the worst Supreme Court decision of the nascent 21st century, the one that granted “personhood” rights to corporations and green-lighted them to dominate American elections. More to the point, that 2010 case gave birth to shadowy super PACs that can annihilate a candidate, no holds barred, no responsibility to those pulling the strings.

http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/05/newts-shop-of-horrors/?nl=opinion&emc=tya1

I must say – this election is so different than the last one. I suspect it is only once in a generation that you get the oppportunity to really see a significant historical event, as we did when we saw the election and inauguration of the first black POTUS.
Not only that, but it was the end of the reign of GWB and his cronies, including our own JWHoward.

This election just does not compare.

99
Bloody hell Gaffy
Who would have thought that Kelvin Mackenzie could prove himself to be an even bigger arsehole in his evidence to Leveson than that youtube clip.
That guy even makes Piers Morgan seem like a paragon of virtue and tact. 😆

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