Open Thread

A Second Term

Obama Second Term
Deep breath, no excuses.
Now we play with futures.

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463 replies on “A Second Term”

Whoops! I forgot the heading for #305
The above Tony Abbott videos are what are doing the rounds or going viral. My son who has not been overtly political had the second one sent to him and passed it on to me.

Poll shows voters prefer Labor’s NBN.
Labor’s national broadband network is more popular than the Coalition’s cheaper version, according to the first national poll on the policies.
Of those who had heard about the government’s NBN, about 63 per cent of those surveyed supported it, reveals the Fairfax/Nielsen poll of 1400 Australians. However, of those who have heard about the Coalition’s alternative, only 41 per cent back it.
Support for Labor’s NBN was consistently high across the states with most registering levels of support between 60 and 70 per cent.

Read more:
The poll was conducted before the 1Gb/s was announced on April 22, 2013.
Even Blind Freddy can see how the election is starting to take shape.

No doubt about Bob, he at least calls it as he sees it;

Watch Abbott go madder by the hour. He still doesn’t know where his eighty billion dollars is coming from, or even where his million and a half is coming from to pay off Ettridge. He doesn’t know when Thomson will sue, or Slipper, or Hanson will sue. He doesn’t know when Labor, or the Greens, or Wilkie will bring up his concealment of priestly abuse.

He doesn’t know when Turnbull will strike.

He won’t be sleeping much. He will be very uncertain. He doesn’t know if Ashby, Brough and Pyne will go to gaol. He doesn’t know if O’Farrell is out to get him, or what he has on him. He doesn’t know what he’ll do when Gillard makes Beazley GG.

He may wish he’d stayed a priest.

i hope this conviction will help speed up the FCPA inquiries in to the Murdochs in the USA. Not being a lawyer etc i am unsure as to how it will play out that the Plod actually went to them with the info.

A former police sergeant is facing jail after admitting selling information to The Sun newspaper.

James Bowes, 30, from Steyning, West Sussex, pleaded guilty at the Old Bailey today to misconduct in public office in 2010.

He was remanded on unconditional bail to be sentenced on 9 May.

Mr Justice Fulford warned him that the fact he had been given bail was “no indication of disposal”.

No details of the case were given during the short hearing.

Bowes is said to have passed on information of investigations to the tabloid between April 9 and July 20 2010 while working for Sussex Police.

“Well over 100,000 Iraqis, mainly civilians, died in the Iraq war and continue to die at the hands of largely Sunni insurgents, displaced as the governing power in the land. How many of those and their families would think it was worth it? Coalition forces losses amounted to some 4,800. The disproportionate loss of life alone for a dubious and discredited cause makes the war immoral.”

“This could be a career ender for Michele Bachmann”
The ethics questions swirling around the Tea Party lawmaker are a “big problem,” experts say.
With a special investigator soon to be appointed by the chief justice of the Iowa Supreme Court, the ethics cloud hovering over Rep. Michele Bachmann could quickly become a major problem for the Tea Party hero, experts tell Salon.

“This is very serious,” said Craig Holman, a government ethics lobbyist at liberal-leaning watchdog group Public Citizen. “It’s not Watergate, or at least not yet, but these are a series of allegations that are each serious on their own, and when you put them all together, this could be a career ender for Michele Bachmann.”

Ken Boehm, chairman of the conservative-leaning National Legal and Policy Center, told Salon that we should wait to see what investigators find — indeed, no wrongdoing has been reported so far — though he acknowledged the escalating scrutiny could be a major headache for the congresswoman down the line.

More here…

We seem to be heading for a mid term election that goes against the usual run of the mill. Obama and the Democrats are cornering the Repugs every chance the get. Will this prevent a lower than usual voter turn out? This remains to be seen.
PS Julia Gillard and the ALP have had a very good week.

#312 Gaffy “He was remanded on unconditional bail to be sentenced on 9 May.” Thank you. That would be a wonderful birthday present. 🙂

Poll: Gun vote boosts Kay Hagan, Mary Landrieu.

A new poll found that Democratic Sens. Kay Hagan of North Carolina and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana got a boost for their support of a failed bipartisan bill that its creators said would improve background checks.

For Hagan, 52 percent of voters said they’re more likely to reelect Hagan next year because she voted in favor of the bill, according to a new poll from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling released Thursday. Twenty-six percent said they’re less likely to support her because of it and the remainder were undecided or didn’t answer.

PPP is a Democratic pollster. PPP is consistently one of the most accurate pollsters.

Read more:

It won’t hurt Obama to keep reminding everyone about the gun laws as often as possible. Every time there is a major shooting. Maybe. eg two or three people shot or when children are shot.

Mind you. The Democrats would be mad not to make some adverts to remind everyone of Sandy Hook and run them in October next year. I’ll do the ads for them if they like. Some VERY serious ads. Do them in black and white and with evil music in the background. It needs to show lots of children playing. Ask lots of questions about the evils of guns and what they can do to kids. Then run through a list of the politicians that voted against the gun laws in photo form. Evil music!

Nancy Pelosi: Hillary Clinton Would Be ‘Best Qualified’ To Run In 2016,

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said Thursday that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would be the most qualified potential nominee for president in recent history and that she prays for her to run in 2016.

“I pray that Hillary Clinton decides to run for president of the United States,” she said to loud applause in Little Rock, Ark., according to a video of her remarks posted by the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. “Nobody has been first lady and senator and now secretary of state. Putting everything aside that she is a woman, she’d be the best qualified person that we’ve seen with all due respect to President Clinton when he went in, President Obama, President Bush and everybody else.”

Pelosi added that she had no inside knowledge of any run.


The Democrats need to win 2016 exceedingly big. Hillary is the ONLY person that can do it. What an insult to the southern white males. First a black man wins big and then a white woman wins big.

The Julia Gillard and the ALP had a big week (or longer) in politics.
They released the Garnet report and promised $19 billion for education.
The disability scheme was announced (NDIS) 5 states have signed up.
The defense White Paper was released with plenty of pageantry and hoopla.
The announcement of another 1.3 million homes to be connected to the internet. (Now at 1 Gb/s according to an article my son sent me). My suburb Oakleigh is included in that. Yay! 🙂
Score card: Julia Gillard 4 Tony Abbott 0
or The Labor Party four Liberals zero.
That was a good week and a bit for Labor. So we have to wait for about 2 weeks for the polls.

A little reminder. Tony Abbott set Malcolm Turnbull the task of destroying the NBN. Instead of that we have a feeble copy of the NBN that will cost voters an extra $5,000 dollars to connect fully to the NBN. What Conroy announced yesterday, means that 1.3 million voters will have to decide to vote for Abbott or pay an extra $5,000 to be connected fully to the NBN.

Senator Conroy on the ABC at the switching on of another NBN area noted that Kiama (I think) had a 60% take up rate of the NBN. Most areas had a take up rate of around 30%. Of that take up rate 30% again was at 100 Mb/s. Tony Abbott had said no one needs 100 Mb/s.

This is Tony Abbots Achilles heel.
Tony Abbott still isn’t Bill Gates and still doesn’t understand what the internet is about.

A press conference to turn on Labor’s national broadband network to 1300 homes and businesses in Sydney’s west on Sunday was hit by a minor technical glitch which saw a video conference unexpectedly drop out.

As well as being used to turn on NBN access for some in Blacktown, the press conference was held to announce NBN Co’s updated three-year roll-out plan, which will see construction begin or be completed on another 1.3 million premises as part of the NBN project’s roll-out by mid-2016. Of those, 400,000 are in NSW.

Read more:

Advertising expert labels Liberal party chicken campaign ‘immature’

A Liberal Party advertisement depicting the Gillard government as a flock of headless chickens is childish and ineffective, according to one of Australia’s leading political advertisers.

“It’s an immature and disappointing start to their campaign if that’s what it is,” said Neil Lawrence who was the creative mind behind the Kevin 07 campaign and the industry campaign that destroyed Labor’s mining super profits tax.

The “headless chooks” campaign centres on a video depicting Prime Minister Julia Gillard and senior members of her team as chickens whose heads have been chopped off.

Labors good fortnight gets even better.

Liberals air doubts on paid parental leave scheme.

More federal Liberal MPs have questioned the Opposition’s policy for an expanded paid parental leave scheme, with one calling for it to be “dumped” before the election.

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott and treasury spokesman Joe Hockey reaffirmed their commitment to the scheme on Monday, saying they will take it to the September 14 election as Coalition policy.

The current policy would give a woman her full wage for 26 weeks, capped at $150,000, including superannuation contributions – making it one of the most generous schemes in the world.

More here…


“That was a good week and a bit for Labor. So we have to wait for about 2 weeks for the polls.”

If the polls over the next six weeks do not move towards Labor, would you concede that it was not a good week (in terms of the election; we are talking politics here, not policy)?

Having said that. It was the last week that Paul Keating one that No GST election. I started to suspect something in that last week. But I wasn’t sure till the last day when I saw all this No GST signs around the polling booths.

All I will say it is not a good sign. Its not over till the fat lady sings. I saw my first advertisement for the NBN on the football on the weekend. With a bit of luck well see a lot more of those.

The answer is no David. (I had to think about that one). The last month is the most important. When they start ratcheting up the campaign. The closer they get to the election the more intense the campaign. POLICY will win this election. Not POLITCS.

The Second biggest thing trending on Google Plus is #352
Google Plus has over 300 million users there for is the second biggest social network. Now we are seeing a viral campaign.

344 David Gould This is a long election. “Will you concede” is a News Limited type question. This election is LONG so as to expose the Coalitions lies at every chance they get.

Chris B,

You claimed that the ALP had a good week and that this would show up in the polls in two weeks. I was more generous and asked whether you would still believe that they had a good week if the polls had not moved towards them by six weeks. So do not try to make this more than it is, which is simply a disagreement over whether the week that the ALP had had would make a difference in the polls in the short term – you think that it will; I think that it will not. We will see who is right five weeks from Tuesday.

Regarding your comment that policy will win the election, not politics, unfortunately you can win elections with the worst policies in the world if you have the best politics. Likewise, if you have brilliant policies but your politics sucks you are not likely to get very far.

And your ad hominem comment labelling my question a News Limited one is just silly. Conceding a point when the evidence shows that you are wrong is what everyone should strive to do.

Liberal Party discontent grows.

Tony Abbott is facing growing discontent among his colleagues about his $3.2 billion Direct Action plan to combat climate change, a policy once described by Malcolm Turnbull as rubbish.
Liberal MPs Mal Washer and Dennis Jensen say the Coalition should review or consider abandoning parts of the policy in the light of ”dire economic circumstances”.
Facing growing party angst: Tony Abbott.
Discontent about the Coalition’s environment policy comes in the same week as MPs broke ranks to publicly criticise Mr Abbott’s paid parental leave scheme as economically irresponsible.

More here…

Combet blasts ALP whingers.

Senior cabinet minister Greg Combet has attacked some of his Labor Party colleagues as ”whingers” in an angry and expletive-laden speech to supporters and donors, expressing his frustration at insiders undermining the government’s prospects in the September federal election

At a party fund-raising dinner last Monday, Mr Combet delivered a withering critique of the doomsayers in his own party, insisting too many people were displaying a defeatist attitude in this election year.


Read more:

How the Republican Party could go extinct.

The party has a golden chance to make inroads with Latinos and gays with one immigration move. And it’s blowing it. From a pure political perspective, supporting inclusion of same-sex couples in the immigration reform bill should be a slam dunk for both Democrats and Republicans. Scuttling the package over this provision would alienate the growing Latino constituency by blocking a pathway to citizenship — and denying rights to LGBT Americans would be ignoring the direction of the country on civil rights.

More here…

British PM facing Tory rebellion over Europe.

British prime minister David Cameron is facing growing discontent within his Conservative party over Britain’s role in the European Union.

About 100 Tory politicians are expected to back an amendment this week criticising the legislative plans unveiled by the coalition government last Wednesday, because they did not include a bill for a referendum on Britain’s continued EU membership.

Ministers have been ordered not to join the rebels but will be allowed to abstain, a sign of the extent of the divisions that have dogged Mr Cameron’s party for decades.


The Liberal Party’s NBN will NOT work unless you pay $5,000 to be connected to it properly. Here’s why it will fail. Its called Ultra High Definition. Those videos will be 4 times the size of HD which in turn are 5 times bigger Standard Definition video’s. YouTube is already using Ultra High Definition.

Sony has a back list of 400 titles in Ultra High Definition including Lawrence of Arabia. All current movies are filmed in Ultra High Definition. But that’s not all…..
A new Ultra High Definition which is 16 times better or bigger has been successfully tested. Which means the Liberal Party’s NBN will be even slower. What happens when 32 and 64 times better/bigger comes along? The Liberals NBN will NOT work it will grind to a halt. Unless you pay an extra $5,000. Rent a streaming video via the Liberals NBN via Netflix in Ultra HD. Sorry Sir. Your time has expired.
Save $5,000 vote Labor.

Correction. Part of the NBN. Ie if you want to stream Ultra HD. Which by the time the network is finished. It should be predominately Ultra HD. It will be very slow in handling big files.


Sortius has a few more good reasons why Turnbulls bullshit NBN is a failure.
Good when a geek techie explains the bullshit about vectoring.

The LNP is prepared to spend $100bil to give us a negative tech future.

Comparing DT & the Coalition’s plan, we can say with assuredness that upgrading to vectoring alone will be in the $20b ballpark, not to dissimilar to upgrading the FTTN network to FTTP (an estimated $21b). All up, the final cost of getting to FTTP by the Coalition’s route is creeping closer to $70b in today’s dollars, if not more when the Telstra deal is taken into account (estimated at $30b). So we could be in for $100b of folly that will negatively shape Australia’s digital future.

To my Australian subjects. I have decided that Tony Abbott is to be Prime Minister. Make it so. There’s a good little country. Rupert Murdoch.

Tony Abbott’s 12 biggest budget reply porkie pies.
Tony Abbott’s budget reply featured at least 20 lies — all of them overlooked by Australia’s corporate media. Alan Austin covers a dozen of Thursday’s most glaring falsehoods.

more here..

David. I saw a poll two days ago and forgot to post it. Now I can’t find it. I have my head stuck in a computer. Losing track of the real world. ALP up 3% Liberal down 3%. I cant even remember which polling company. It’ll turn up though. Its just the start. More to come.

It was a Neilsen

Abbott and Turnbull really have thick hides and care less for the truth when they keep on coming out and spruiking their Fraudband garbage after a comprehensive shellacking like this from the experts.

The biggest hurdle for the Coalition’s plan is to convince technical experts that the Coalition can break the laws of physics & deliver a minimum of 25Mbps to every Australian (& 50Mbps to 90% of Australia). This will be a hard case to build as there is so much evidence to show that these speeds would not be viable in Australia. Even as far back as 2004, Telstra, then under the direction of Ziggy Switkowski, stated that they had no interest in trialling, let alone deploying, VDSL2 to Australia, stating that they “see fibre to the premises as the most likely technology to support very high speed access services of the future”. Yep, that’s 9 years ago that Telstra had no interest in using copper to deliver very high speed broadband.

Why would they say this? Is it that they know what’s deployed in the network & realise that they’d see little improvement over ADSL/ADSL2? Of course it is. Telstra well know that the copper deployed is just not up to the task of running VDSL, let alone VDSL2, & it’s not just because of faults.

The reality is that little of Australia’s copper on the distribution side (what matters for FTTN) of the network is over the 0.64mm diameter cable (aka: 22 AWG) that VDSL2 requires, much of it is in the 0.40mm & below class, with some newer areas having 0.50mm deployed. The only places I’ve come across with 0.64mm & above cable are rural areas. Most of the 0.64mm & 0.90mm in the bush is long line PSTN with loading coils. Essentially the higher gauge was used to extend a phone line out to a farmstead or the like.

Sortius really makes Abbott and Turnbull look like idiots that they are.

The good news that everyone has missed in the budget. Under the heading of spending yet to be announced:
There is a 500 million dollar war chest.

I wonder if Mr Abbott understands that Mr Turnbull has whiteanted MR Abbotts plans to wreck the FTTP model and deliver a barrell of crap FTTN model..

Slowly but surely Mr Turnbull is agreeing with the FTTP model

The only way Turnbull will stop it being a vote winner for Labor is to agree with Labor FTTP in total.

But that would make Mr Abbott look sillier if that’s possible after spending all that time and energy trying to wreck it, just like the Carbon pricing scheme which is now up and running and a real success in lowering emissions.

Oh well shit happens.

Ironically, Mr Turnbull has now warmed to many of the supposedly terrible elements he described in over three years of anti-NBN scripts he provided to Coalition MPs to read in late-night extended sittings and extra parliamentary sitting days at taxpayer expense.

Mr Turnbull has now completely adopted:

• an off-budget NBN funding model, selling bonds to fund the construction, then repaying them from wholesale revenue from end-users (however, the Coalition’s preferred FTTN will attract smaller revenues);

• a monopoly wholesaler role for NBNCo, whereby the competitive market of retail service providers must lease access exclusively from NBNCo in order to sell broadband to customers (NBN monopoly would sink Telstra’s then $2.56 share price, which has since soared past $4);

• use of wireless broadband for just 4 per cent (he previously advocated wireless for everything); and

• Labor’s view that by the 2020s every urban premises will need future-proof optical fibre (but he won’t offer to build it).

The Australian Financial Review recently opined that the Coalition has now adopted 90 per cent of Labor’s plan, and should logically adopt the smartest 10 per cent — laying optical fibre to premises.

Slowly but surely this country is being sucked in to the sewer by the LNP and their supporters.

We have Thomas the gambling engine under full steam teaching kids how to gamble during the sports broadcasts and now we have young female AFL supporters following in the tracks of the kings of racial vilification and discrimination, Tony, Cory and Scoot, all propped up by SeweRoo, by abusing an AFL footy player during the game last night.

I wonder if she was old enough to realise what she was doing but LNP supporters will be proud of this young lady being able to follow the dog whistles of their favourite political party.

I feel sorry for her.

Where does it all end up?

A must read.How to polish a turd.

[In his fine Australian poem Sheep Killer, Ernest G. Moll tells of a rogue sheep dog driven by a destructive secret agenda. While it is under the watchful eye of its owner, it controls its natural instincts and conceals its real intentions. When he trusts it off the chain one night, it runs amok among his flock and creates deadly havoc.

When the carnage is over, the owner reprimands himself that he should have seen all the indications of what would happen if the dog was given its chance. We are given a striking portrait of an animal whose behaviour had betrayed all the warning signs – the shifty ‘glint that sprang/Into his eyes’, the way he stands ‘stiffly’ when under close observation ‘as though he kept/His body back from where his thoughts leapt/Ahead’.

But the owner carelessly ignored all the indicators — with disastrous consequences.

At that stage, it becomes painfully obvious that the animal had cleverly cloaked its actual motives:

‘cunning (had been) the muzzle on desire.’

There are disturbing parallels to be seen in Tony Abbott concealing his dark side in the run up to the September election.]

Exclusive analysis: If Texas Latinos had same turnout rate as Anglos, the state would already be ‘purple’.

Democrats have dreamed of making Texas competitive for years. In recent months they’ve launched the political action group Battleground Texas, whose founder said Latino turnout is the central plank of their campaign. In DC, House Democrats appointed Laredo Rep. Henry Cuellar to lead their national congressional Latino outreach group.

Republicans, meanwhile, have scoffed at the efforts. Gov. Rick Perry called it “the biggest pipe dream I have ever heard.”

OK, so what’s spin and what’s reality? Last November, the Houston Chronicle completed a database analysis of the changing population patterns of the state and the changing voting proclivities of key demographic blocs. Our conclusion: Texas would become competitive by 2020 and a true toss-up state by 2024 if current turnout and partisan voting patterns continued.

More here…

Conspiracy Theory Poll Results

On our national poll this week we took the opportunity to poll 20 widespread and/or infamous conspiracy theories. Many of these theories are well known to the public, others perhaps to just the darker corners of the internet. Here’s what we found:
Q14 Do you believe that Lee Harvey Oswald acted
alone in killing President Kennedy, or was
there some larger conspiracy at work?
Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone 25% …………………
There was some larger conspiracy at work 51% …..
Not sure 24%
Me – Yes.

Geezus …
Krudd reminds me of Francis Urquhart in House of Cards – he has brought down his party and yet shows such innocence and concern.
Poor Julia – I really cant see how she will stay in as the backbenchers start to face their own demise and it becomes every person for themselves.

and then we get Abbott.


I do not think that you can blame Rudd alone for the position that Labor are in at the moment.

However, while I am sort of a Rudd supporter, it is difficult to see the point in changing to Rudd now. I am a fan of opinion polls, but the opinion polls that suggest that he would do better than Julia are asking too hypothetical a question to be a fair test of his support. Plus 7 on 2PP? Uh huh. I would doubt that very much. That is basically suggesting a landslide to the Liberal Party on the order of 54 to 46 would be turned into a potential landslide for Labor on the order of 53 to 47. I cannot see that happening.

The problem will be that we will never be able to run the counterfactual – if Gillard is leader and loses 54 to 46, everyone will claim Rudd will have done better, without evidence; if Rudd is leader and loses 54 to 46, everyone will claim that that is better than Gillard would have done, again without evidence.

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