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Promethius … science, religion, or something else?

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Thing is I’ve watched this movie four times now. And that – in and of itself – bothers me. There are conflicts present in the script – not spoken so much – just the noise between the lines. I’m on the fence, is it junk or is it a milestone?

705 replies on “Promethius … science, religion, or something else?”

Chris B,

The thing is, you need to compare the Senate with 2006, the Presidential race with 2008 and the House of Representatives election with 2010.

In 2006, the Democrats picked up 53.2 per cent of the vote. Anything less than that is a swing against them, meaning that they will lose seats.

In 2008, Obama won 52.9 per cent of the vote. Anything less than that is a swing against him, meaning that he will lose electoral college votes.

In 2010, the House Democrats won 44.8 per cent of the vote. Anything more than that is a swing to them, meaning that they will pick up seats.

This is why you can have the Democrats losing Senate seats, losing electoral college votes and yet winning House seats.

As to polls taking a week to move, Romney’s numbers started going up in the days after the first debate. I do not think that videos change things all that much, unless they are straight from the candidate (the 47 per cent comes to mind). But most of the time events do not impact all that much. The debate win by Romney was an annoying exception …

Delicious. I mean added to Delicious. 🙂 Facebook Liked, Plus, reddit, Stumbleupon, LinkIn, Digg and Pinterest. That should get you more coverage Jenny. Congrats and well done again.

507
How Green was our councillor?
They should make it into a mini series. 🙂
Bloody hearty congrats Jen!

Rasmussen polls.
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Last Thursday we gave an analysis of Rasmussen polls and presented data showing that Rasmussen has a bias of about 2 point compared to the other pollsters. Now Alan Abramowitz, a professor of political science at Emory University, has done a similar analysis with a different polling database and has also concluded that Rasmussen is biased, with his estimate being 3 points. With Rasmussen being the most prolific pollster, his prodigious output affects the widely cited Real Clear Politics averages as well as ours (although we also have a Rasmussen-free page, which RCP does not).

Rasmussen were 6% out at the mid terms.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Oct29.html#item-10

Early Voting in Nevada Makes Democrats Optimistic.
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Sue Lowden was at her Las Vegas early voting location as soon as it opened at 10 a.m. Wednesday. But like so many other voters in battleground Nevada, the former state party chairwoman had to wait 30 minutes in a line out the door that had only lengthened by the time she left.

“It’s packed,” Lowden, who lost her bid for the GOP Senate nomination in 2010, said by phone later.

Early voting is exploding in the Silver State, and Democrats so far are the biggest benefactors. The Democratic advantage, coupled with the party’s strong voter registration edge, has party insiders in the state at the very least optimistic about the presidential and Senate contests with just more than a week to go.

“I think that looking at what’s happened so far with the early vote, we’re hitting on all eights,” said Billy Vassiliadis, an informal adviser to statewide Democratic efforts and longtime ally of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.).

More indications of a bigger swing.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/early_voting_in_nevada_gives_democrats_optimism-218495-1.html

Bob Kerrey Closes In On Reclaiming His Nebraska Senate Seat.
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Kerrey’s campaign should matter to all Americans concerned with bridging the partisan divide, writes John Avlon.
Bob Kerrey’s campaign to retake his Senate seat is surging in the final days of the campaign—bringing him to within two points of his Tea Party competitor, thanks to increased support from independent voters.

More evidence of a Democratic surge.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/10/29/bob-kerrey-closes-in-on-reclaiming-his-nebraska-senate-seat.html

Obama Predicts War in GOP if He’s Re-Elected
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President Obama said that the Republican party “would have to overcome an internal war if he were reelected, but expressed hope that the partisan gridlock in Washington could come to an end,” the Huffington Post reports.

Said Obama: “The question’s going to be, how do Republicans react post-election? Because there’s going to be a war going on inside that party. It just hasn’t broken up. It’s been unified in opposition to me.”

The longer this war goes the bigger effect on the mid terms in 2014.
As long as the Democrats do some populist things in the next two years. The mid terms could be quite a shake up. But there is a LONG time to go for that.

http://politicalwire.com

Daily KOS
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The official composite includes all the crap GOP pollsters, like Rasmussen et al. For fun, I decided to check what would happen if I excluded Rasmussen in some of these states.

In North Carolina, that 2.5-point deficit would be 1.2 points.

In Ohio, that 1.4-point lead would be a 3-point Obama lead, 50-47.

In Wisconsin, that 2.2 lead would be a 3.2-point Obama lead, 48.7-45.5.

So Ras is single-handedly worth 1-2 points in the composite for Romney.

More…
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/29/1152168/-Battleground-snapshot-8-days-out

8 percent of Latinos have already voted early, enthusiasm up again in final week.
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The latest impreMedia-Latino Decisions tracking poll shows that Latinos are more enthusiastic and more likely to vote than ten weeks ago when the initial poll was fielded. Forty-five percent of Latino voters say they are more enthusiastic about voting in 2012 compared to 2008. That number is up from 37% from ten weeks ago when the initial impreMedia-Latino Decisions tracking poll was fielded. Furthermore, 87% of Latino voters say they are almost certain they will vote on November 6th, which includes 8% of Latino voters have already voted. In 2008, 84% of Latino registered voters cast a ballot according to Census statistics.

More here..
http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2012/10/29/8-percent-of-latinos-have-already-voted-early-enthusiasm-up-again-in-final-week/

Campaigns See Latino Voters as Deciders in 3 Key States.
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Volunteers for President Obama have flooded into Latino-owned nail salons here, buttonholing potential Obama voters as they sit captive in their chairs. In Colorado, supporters of Mitt Romney are recruiting Latino owners of small businesses to reach out to other business owners whom they view as particularly receptive to the Republican economic message.
Mr. Obama and his supporters have outspent Mr. Romney and his backers nearly 2-to-1 on advertising on Spanish-language television stations in three of the most closely contested states — Colorado, Florida and Nevada — including a new advertisement in which Mr. Obama makes a personal appeal for support, speaking entirely in Spanish. Mr. Romney’s advisers have relied on a surge of ads across the television spectrum, saying that most Hispanics speak English and consider the economy, not immigration, the top issue.

More here..
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/19/us/politics/in-3-crucial-states-both-campaigns-press-for-latino-voters.html?_r=0

Virginia: Tim Kaine Up 7 in New Poll.
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A new poll from the Washington Post found that former Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine led by 7 points in the open-seat Senate race.

The Democrat and fellow former Gov. George Allen (R) are battling in one of the most competitive contests of the cycle in a state that could go either way in the presidential race. And after a year of running even, polling results over the past six months have been as mixed as they once were steady.

However, the Post’s polling has not changed over the past month. In the latest survey, Kaine led 51 percent to 44 percent, a nearly identical result from the Post’s September poll.

Another indication of a Democratic surge. Although there is an Elizabeth Warren Poll showing a tie in Massachusetts. Is it an outlier? Who knows?

More here…
http://atr.rollcall.com/virginia-tim-kaine-up-7-in-new-poll/

The electoral vote map is a bit more optimistic than I am. I think North Carolina will fall to Romney. That is my 303 maximum for Obama. I think that there is a chance that Virginia and/or Colorado could fall as well. But Obama is still in good position (although nowhere near where I thought that he would be).

One thing I worry about, though, is the discrepancy between national polling and state polling. Nate Silver has not really addressed this. Why is Romney ahead in 4 of the 10 national polls, with Obama ahead in 3 and with 3 ties? If you take out Rasmussen – because you like doing that – that makes the race pretty much even. Could Obama lose the vote but win the electoral college?

(Slightly better than winning the vote but losing the electoral college, I guess … 😉 )

The Republican surge happened mainly in the South in Confederate states. (Go figure). 🙂 Rather than all over whereas The Democrats kept the lead everywhere else.
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If you take out Rasmussen – because you like doing that (Maybe if you read the accompanying documentation on the page you will see why). I think you will find Nate Silver weighs Rasmussen accordingly.

Yes, Nate Silver does. But even with that weighting the polls show that the national race is very close indeed. I guess that if the Republican surge is happening in the south that would account for it. (And I guess Florida is a big population state, so Romney winning there would give him some extra votes).

I’m not sure whether the surge happened in Florida. On the polling I think not. Just the states that were in the Confederacy. Which maybe why North Carolina has gone back to the Republican Party. The exception is Virginia which has been flooded by Northerners in the North of the state. ie people from Washington.

Take it back. Florida was in the Confederacy. But it doesn’t seem to have had a surge like the other slave states. Basically from North Carolina around to Texas.

Rachel Maddow video: Storm effectively ends presidential campaign
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President Obama and Mitt Romney have suspended their campaigns due to Hurricane Sandy, which ended the candidates’ most direct efforts to change the polls. Rachel Maddow looks at the state of the race, and Mitt Romney’s latest campaign ad which is being called out as a lie.

More of the media are calling out Mitt Romney.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/vp/49604136#49604136

Just what Mitt Romney doesn’t want to hear.
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Christie said that he had spoken with Obama several times on Monday, and that the federal response “has been great.”
“I was on the phone at midnight again last night with the president personally,” Christie said. “The president has been outstanding in this, and so the folks of FEMA, Craig Fugate and his folks have been excellent.”

The Huffington Post has been down, (Withdrawal symptoms setting in).

More here on the improvised HP.
http://status.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/30/chris-christie-praises-obamas-storm-response/

Latest Swing State Polls

Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:

Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Project New America)

Florida: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (Newsmax/Zogby)

Florida: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (SurveyUSA)

North Carolina: Romney 50%, Obama 45% (SurveyUSA)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Newsmax/Zogby)

Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (SurveyUSA)

Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Project New America)

Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (Newsmax/Zogby)

http://politicalwire.com

Are Polls Missing Cell Phone Users?
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Stan Greenberg: ” I’ve seen tracking polls saying that Mitt Romney is either tied or leading in the presidential race, but we think that they are simply wrong. It’s not a conspiracy theory; those other polls are just simply missing a critical segment of President Obama’s coalition: cell phone users. Failing to survey those who don’t have land-lines — who tend to support the president by a significant margin — those polls are blind to the fact that Obama is on track to win re-election on November 6.”

http://politicalwire.com

I bet they are missing Latinos voters too. But it doesn’t matter after hurricane Sandy anyway.

Now Comes the Hard Part for the Campaigns
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Obama can go to inspect storm damage and act like he is coordinating relief efforts. Even going to noncompetitive states, like New Jersey, and saying things like: “I want to repeat my message to the federal government: No bureaucracy, no red tape. Get resources where they’re needed as fast as possible” makes him look decisive and presidential. Also, every trip he makes to some hard-hit area is major news and will be on every television set in America–for free. Romney doesn’t get equal time and don’t you think Obama is not aware of this and will milk it for all it is worth.

More here…
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Oct31.html#item-1

First very positive reviews of Obama’s Hurricane job.
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Nearly eight in 10 likely voters say the president has done an “excellent” or “good” job dealing with what’s been labeled a “super storm.” Almost as many give positive reviews to the federal government’s response generally. Even two-thirds of those who support Republican Mitt Romney in next week’s presidential election say Obama is doing well in this area.

Bye, bye Romney.

More here.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/31/1153285/-Poll-Overwhelming-support-for-Obama-s-hurricane-response

PS It doesn’t say how many were polled.

Obama’s crazy good polling day.
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This is it, the stretch run, and Romney is losing ground almost everywhere. Let’s look at our handy chart of the battleground state composites, but this time I’m comparing the results to that of 10/19—the Apex of Romney’s numbers in this feature (he had better numbers in a handful of states at other times, but close enough).
What this shows is that Romney has given back a huge chunk of his post-first debate gains. Florida, New Hampshire and Virginia, in particular, show massive movement back to the president (and ironically, none of these had early voting at the time to try and lock in some of those gains for Romney).
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Finally, Florida has shifted back to an Obama lead for the first time in this feature since Oct. 11. It’s nice seeing all that Blue again.

This is BEFORE any kick in the polls for Hurricane Sandy.
George Bush and the Republicans got their boost from 911.
Now its Obama and the Democrats turn.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/31/1153153/-Obama-s-crazy-good-polling-day

Watch: Television News Starts Covering The Link Between Climate Change And Superstorm Sandy.
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Coverage of climate change from television news outlets has dropped precipitously since 2009. And during the lead-up and arrival of Superstorm Sandy, the climate connection to extreme weather was conspicuously absent.

More here…
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/31/1115261/watch-television-news-starts-covering-the-link-between-climate-change-after-superstorm-sandy/

If Obama wins handsomely. The Tea Party will now blame hurricane Sandy. Not their bad policies. The ructions in the Republican Party may not happen. This time.

I do not think it is going to be a huge win for Obama. Last time, he won Indiana and North Carolina, which will definitely not happen this time.

He will also probably lose Florida, which he won last time.

That gives 303 as the maximum.

Virginia and Colorado are pretty even in the polls, so it is possible that he will do worse than 303.

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DG
It’s a relief to hear that all Laming said was “You are corrupt”.
Listening to a clip of that exchange somewhere on the net (I’ve forgotten where) I thought I heard the word “slut” mentioned!
That would have been *seriously* off.
But even the “corrupt” quote got the speaker mighty cheesed off.

It’s official – I’m Counsellor O’Connor.

Congrats Jen! That’s a nice birthday present.

New York Mayor Bloomberg endorses Obama.
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New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg backed President Barack Obama over Republican Mitt Romney on Thursday, saying the incumbent Democrat will bring critically needed leadership to fight climate change after the East Coast devastation wrought by Hurricane Sandy.

The endorsement from the politically independent and nationally recognizable mayor was a major boost for Obama, who is spending the campaign’s final days trying to win over independent voters whose voices will be critical in determining the winner of Tuesday’s election.

Wow! I didn’t see that one coming.

More here…
http://news.yahoo.com/york-mayor-bloomberg-endorses-obama-191824919–election.html

Democrats Pulling In Sporadic Florida Voters.
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A Democratic operative sent the Tampa Bay Times some data on the early vote in Florida so far “to make the point that President Obama is crushing Mitt Romney when it comes to banking the votes of sporadic and infrequent voters before election day.”

“So far more than 3 million Floridians have cast a ballot by absentee, mail-in ballot or in-person early vote ballot. Democrats lead by more than 60,000 votes, but it’s the unlikely voter numbers that jump out: Of the nearly 414,000 Floridians who did not vote in the last three general elections, Democrats have an advantage of more than 53,000 votes. Of the more than 482,000 Floridians who have only voted in one of the last three general elections, Democrats lead by more than 77,000 — a total of more than 132,000.”

http://politicalwire.com

Chrysler Executive Calls Out Trump
The Detroit Free Press reports Donald Trump tweeted today that President Obama “is a terrible negotiator. He bails out Chrysler and now Chrysler wants to send all Jeep manufacturing to China–and will!”

The comment drew a heated tweet from Chrysler Group Vice President for Product Design Ralph Gilles: “You are full of shit!”
http://politicalwire.com

Larry Flynt Offers Richard Mourdock a $1 Million Dollar Reward if He Can Prove His Dumbass Rape Statement.
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Hustler founder/rough lover of the First Amendment Larry Flynt is taking a page from Donald Trump’s book by offerring up a large sum of money to get someone to verify an obvious lie. While in Trump’s case, he himself is the perpetuator of this lie (that President Obama is not a natural born citizen), Flynt’s intentions are a little more — dare we say — pure?
Larry Flynt has taken out a full page ad in today’s Indianapolis Star to offer U.S. Republican Senate candidate Richard Mourdock a cool $1 million if he is able to prove his ridiculous statement that ”even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape, it is something that God intended to happen.”

Flynt writes:

Please be kind enough to verify your claim for a wondering nation. I will accept for purposes of this reward any verifiable transcript of your personal conversations with God; letters, email, text messages or videos from God, or messages addressed to you from God transmitted by any third party, including the Republican National committee or the Romney/Ryan campaign.

I assume that you would not have made this statement unless you had been authorized by God. No one who believes in God would ever use the Almighty’s name in vain. That would be blasphemy.

Of course, Flynt is in no danger of losing a million dollars — there’s no way Mourdock can prove his statement on God-intended rape because it’s a statement that’s been pulled entirely from his ass.

Is there a difference between what Flynt is doing and what Trump is doing? Yes — Donald Trump is using his wealth to bully the President into releasing personal records that apparently will reveal his Kenyan birthplace (a baseless and racist theory that, try as they might, the birthers have yet to prove). And worse still, he is essentially holding a charity hostage to do it by saying that he’ll only give $5 million to an organization in need if the POTUS complies with his terms. Flynt, on the other hand, is using his money to point out the all-too-common idiocy of basing politics in religion, especially when it comes to policies that effect religious and non-religious people’s rights to their own bodies.

So basically, one of these guys is a gross, exploitative misogynist and the other is Larry Flynt.

—Madeleine Davies

Barack Obama picked up the endorsement of Colin Powell (Republican) Michael Bloomberg (Republican). The nod and wink of Chris Christie (Republican). Mitt Romney suffered a news black out compliments of Hurricane Sandy. While Obama received a lot of praise and coverage. I expect there will be a big boost for Obama come voting time. Things point to a landslide.

A phone poll on the Ed Show. Who do you trust the most to be President? Barack Obama or Mitt Romney. Obama 98% Romney 2%.
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I will point out that it is not scientific. 🙂

Right ticsters. If you missed it tonight on the wireless, don’t miss Mark Colvin’s Andrew Olle lecture which will be shown on ABC1 11.15 pm Sun. It’s an absolute cracker!!

The Senate Democratic caucus could get a progressive upgrade.

When we talk about Upgrading the Senate, one of the things we had in mind was the long-standing idea of more and better Democrats. By better, we mean Democrats that will unapologetically fight for progressive policies. Keeping the Senate has been important, but keeping the Senate and increasing the number of progressive senators in the caucus has been the key.

Awesome. Especially Connecticut. After Joseph Lieberman.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/01/1153797/-The-Senate-Democratic-caucus-could-get-a-progressive-upgrade

592 Gaffhook It certainly would if it came earlier. They left it a bit late. Not that I think it is needed. The Democrats are doing everything right and Romney is copping a pounding in the media.

When did Nebraska’s Senate race become competitive?

The GOP’s path to the Senate majority always assumed they would pick up the Nebraska Senate seat currently held by retiring Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Asshole). It was an assumption held by pretty much everyone else, despite the top-tier Democratic recruitment of former governor and senator Bob Kerrey.

Yet another indication that things are going well for the Democrats.

More here…
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/01/1153934/-When-did-Nebraska-s-senate-race-become-competitive

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