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Team Obama appear to have the grass/netroots organisation, numbers and smarts to be able to deal with any Rove-stlye GOP electoral interference on Nov. 4. Considering the depths to which the GOP have previously descended in order to cling to power and thereby maintain their access to the Federal Trough, worst case scenarios should be fully prepared for, indeed, expected.

In the 2004 US Presidential Election G. W. Bush gained 286 Electoral College Votes (ECVs); John Kerry, 252. To become POTUS a Party’s Nominee must gain 270 ECVs. Each state has a number of electors equal to the number of its Senators and Representatives in the United States Congress which is proportional to the population as determined through a census taken every 10 years. CA for example has 55 ECVs, Nth Dakota, 3. Each State awards its ECVs on a winner take all basis of the popular vote except Maine and Nebraska which have minor idiosyncratic variations. To hardcore Bludgers, these things are “known knowns”.

State Governors have the executive power (which is an inordinate amount of clout) to determine how the popular vote is tallied in their States, eg, CO (Democratic Governor) now has all pencil and paper ballots, while FL (GOP Gov.) has widespread (ab)use of poorly scrutinised Diebold receiptless computer-touchscreen voting machines.

Diebold incidentally, make ATMs which produce receipts upon request but they just haven’t been able to employ that good ‘ol American know-how to manufacture a voting machine that would likewise supply a paper trail. Funny about that. Paper trails come in mighty handy in the event of disputed returns. As things stand, the word of the computer programmers is final. Verifiable democracy, it would seem, can take a hike! Diebold Corporation are major donors to the GOP, but that’s probably just a coincidence. Diebold computers tallied the vote in OHIO 2004 and the State was ruled by GOP Goveror, Bob Taft (ref. 20 Amazing Facts About Elections).

Had Kerry won OHIO’s 20 ECVs in 2004, he would have become POTUS.

Karl Rove has recently been subject to a surge of mentorial pride. Mr. Rove is former W.H. Deputy CoS and “architect” of President G.W. Bush’s electoral success. He presently is an artful dodger of Congressional subpoenas concerning the “letting go of” Federal Judges who, in Karl’s opinion, were not onside with his former master’s aims and objectives regarding the practicalities of maintaining the upper hand in matters of day to day rule.

Karl’s understudy, Steve “Schmuckens” Schmidt, has displayed prodigious talent already as a “draughtsman”. Mr.Schmidt has recently become prospective GOP Nominee John McCain’s chief campaign advisor. It would not be unreasonable to assume that Mr. Schmidt would be willing to employ all the wiles of his mentor in order to have Senator McCain “elected” POTUS.

Not unreasonably, with respect of the abovementioned developments, there are some amongst us who smell a rat and I am unabashedly one of those people. However, the political landscape has altered rather dramatically since 2004. Latest polling suggests that while the GOP is not likely to gain ANY States in Nov. 2008, Dems have excellent prospects in CO IN IA MT NM OH and VA (ref. electoral-vote.com). Of these States, all except Indiana have Democratic Governors, therefore the prospects of Schmidt & Co pulling an “OHIO 04” in those States are somewhat diminished (ref. Wikipedia: US Governors Map).

Despite the obvious fraud potential in Diebolds’ systems (ref. Lou Dobs on Dibold), the Democratic Leadership Council in its wisdom persisted in having the Dodgies from Diebold tally the N.H. primary which, contrary to all pre and exit polls, produced a stunning campaign-sustaining victory for “Beltway to her Bootstraps” HRC, and not the upstart Junior Senator from Illinois, BHO.

Just another coincidence, I guess.

There are many other methods of rorting US elections such as compulsory carrying of ID for voters in Indiana, and the methods addressed in the Wikipedia: 2004 US Presidential election controversy notes. In preparing this post I read literally scores of articles but had to stand in awe of the jounalistic and research skills of Maureen Farrell. For Bludgers interested in the subject, her work: “Another Rigged Election, The Elephant in the Booth”, is outstanding. Finally, despite the unfairness in our electoral system such as disproportionate Senate representation, our way of electing our representatives by the straightforward marking of paper ballots with a pencil seems to be comparatively tamper-proof.

371 Responses to “Electoral Fraud: Can Diebold do it again?”

  1. 101
    Catrina says:

    Chris B – at 98
    All I do is twinkle and it disappears!

  2. 102
    Swing Lowe says:

    KR @ 100,

    Once again, you’ve bought into the biggest myth floating around atm – that the US banks and FIs are unregulated.

    As I’ve said before, it’s the opposite that actually true. US banks and FIs are some of the most regulated in the Western world, primarily due to a hangover from the Depression (and other financial crises since then). The fact of the matter is that there likely would have been more credit flowing around if the US implemented Australian (or internationally-accepted) regulations.

    Also, I believe the key driver of the credit boom (and subsequent crunch) wasn’t the banks or their behaviour – they just acted as rational actors in the economic circumstances. Rather, it was the Federal Reserve (and other central banks) who kept interest rates too low for too long – leading to too much liquidity in the market, which meant too many loans were extended to customers of poor credit quality, whose subsequent defaults on these loans were the beginning of this credit crunch.

  3. 103
    Chris B says:

    Hi Catrina, you might want to put this link to the BBC US coverage on our site.


    Here’s one to the DCCC


    Google has a good electoral map but I can’t find it.

  4. 104
    Chris B says:

    US elections: Battleground map.

    Hey here is a brilliant political map on the BBC site for anyone who doesn’t know who’s red and who’s blue. It’s even helpful for some of us who think they know a little bit more. You know legend in their own lunchtime.

    Election overload. My brain hurts :)


  5. 105
    blindoptimist says:

    Swing Lowe …BO @ 87……Sorry, but I’ve got to clarify my post from above. When I said that the US has the most stringent capital requirements in the world, that applies to both banks and non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs)….

    But only to the extent that their liabilities are actually reflected on their balance sheets. They have been allowed to get away with off-balance sheet intermediation. In the case of F&F, if they had been required to hold, say 8% of their assets as reserves, their capital would have been close to 500 bill. They would be lucky to have 50 bill today.

    If all the risk-takers/market-makers had to meet the same tough standards regardless of whether the assets are shown on the balance sheets or not, you could be very sure there would be a healthy level of risk aversion right through the system.

    I don’t doubt what you’re saying at all. But it sounds like the US system has a split personality. There are banks that want to collect fees and margins but not make loans and non-banks that have been willing to lend to anyone as long as they can on-sell the risk. It is mad.

  6. 106
    Enemy Combatant says:

    Kirri 95, technically The Constitution takes a rather dim view of electoral fraud but I havn’t been able to search out anything specifically instancing computer voting fraud.
    The Imbecile is on record, however, as saying that The Constitution is just a goddamned piece of paper.”

    That’s fascinating because a few people seem to be under the misguided belief that President Bush twice swore to uphold The Constitution of the United States of America during his January Inaugurations in 2001 and 2005. No doubt is was just a misunderestimation by those people. The Deciderer-In-Chief must have mis-spoke. Twice.

    Jarwohl Mien Pesident!

    Did find this though.

    “the United States cannot continue as a constitutional republic without the fair and honest exercise of the right to vote. Or, as Josef Stalin said “Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything.”………….

    the Supreme Court has ruled in Wesberry v. Sanders “the right to vote is the highest right that we have as citizens and if that right does not exist, then all other rights that we have are purely illusory.”[1]”

  7. 107
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    Swing Lowe, this is the problem in a nutshell, courtesy of Alan Kohler:

    Fannie and Freddie are now in trouble because they hold mortgage securities that have to be ‘marked to market’ according to accounting standards, and the market for those things has collapsed.

    All of a sudden their tiny regulatory capital ($US86 billion supporting $US5 trillion of mortgages) is nowhere near enough.

    …they are

  8. 108
    Kirribilli Removals says:


    they are OVER LEVERAGED.

    There’s a bit of importance residing in that fact.

  9. 109
    Swing Lowe says:

    BO @ 105,

    I’m now digging deep into my uni knowledge, but I know that there are either proposed or current regulations (I can’t remember which) governing capital requirements for off-balance sheet activities undertaken by banks and NBFIs.

    These are international regulations that are the minimum standards required for individual countries’ prudential regulations. They are called Basel I and Basel II.

    Basel I is already in force and whilst it sets out minimum capital requirements for on-balance sheet activities, I cannot remember whether it covers off-balance sheet activities.

    Basel II is coming into force fairly soon and I know for sure that (amongst other things) it imposes a set of capital requirements for all off-balance sheet activities undertaken by banks. So this area of banking is soon to be regulated (if not done so already)…

  10. 110
  11. 111
    Chris B says:

    My neighbours are on Lateline tonight. Re abuse in the Catholic Church.

  12. 112
    Chris B says:

    99 Swing Lowe Yes that’s 3 polls to Obama, 6%, 8% and 9% I love repeating that, any excuse.

  13. 113
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    109 Swing Lowe

    It all gets pretty academic when anybody could borrow 110% to buy not only the house, but the furnishing, the car, the boat and literally have no skin in the game, as they say.

    This is where it went, and it became “Regulatory Debauchery”. (You’d enjoy the piece of that title by Satyajit Das, a well written outline of the problem by a specialist with a flair for getting it across).

    Prudential standards went bottom fishing to keep the revolving door of capital whizzing around. They all knew where this would ultimately lead but hey, in the meantime, they where making tidy profits and knew it would get dumped on the taxpayer when it went pear shaped.

    As a percentage of GDP the financial sector was growing like topsy, but at bottom, it was mostly funny money, leveraged endlessly without any concern for where it would end. Creative mathematicians modeled their derivatives into baroque ornate structures based on the fantasy that there would be an endless supply of borrowers who would never default en masse.

    Guess what?

  14. 114
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    106 Enemy Combatant

    Electoral fraud? Gotta catch ‘em first Ecky! LOL

    Once again, the ‘highest principle’ is left to fend for itself because the reality is that it has ALWAYS been rorted.

    It’s much like the financial system’s ‘regulation’…it works on paper, as recent events have only demonstrated too well.

    They love the talk, the waxing lyrical about their ‘freedoms’ and their ‘democracy’ when most of them are completely ignorant of the fact that many places in the world actually do it better.

    But we just don’t crow about it like we invented it…they do.

  15. 115
    Enemy Combatant says:

    Bludgers, there’s absolutely no need to panic. Please remain calm at all times. Kindly resume normal trading activity because Karmanomics will see us through this economic kerfuffle. Thank you for your cooperation:)

    Wed July16:

  16. 116
    jen says:

    Sheesh- escape back to sanity.
    just spent a couple of hours back amongst the Oz Bludgers- and bloody well got caught! I am my own worst enemy.
    (Apart from GWB, who is infinitely worse.)

  17. 117
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    Speaking about Satjiyat Das, one writer summed it all up late last year:

    Rather than joining the crowd that blames the mess on American slobs who took on more mortgage debt than they could afford and have endangered the world by stiffing lenders, he points a finger at three parties: regulators who stood by as U.S. banks developed ingenious but dangerous ways of shifting trillions of dollars of credit risk off their balance sheets and into the hands of unsophisticated foreign investors, hedge and pension fund managers who gorged on high-yield debt instruments they didn’t understand and financial engineers who built towers of “securitized” debt with math models that were fundamentally flawed.


  18. 118
    Chris B says:

    When you take out a home loan in America with a bank, it doesn’t stay with the bank. They on sell it to someone else, then they sell it & so on. No-one knows where it will end up.

  19. 119
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    117 Chris B

    And this process led to massive leverage of the underlying loan. Maybe 20 to 30 times if you followed the chain.

    No wonder the world is ‘de-leveraging’!

  20. 120
    jen says:

    OK- off topic, I have a problem.
    The issues about the current Green paper and the local Oz political parties response to it is important. However- try as i might to argue a particular position (Greens in my case) on PB it gets nasty as opposed to heated, and I don’t want to go there.
    Is anyone else interested in a concurrent thread dealing with the OZ issues, or is that an over reaction?
    Much as the US election is interesting there are also significant local issues (as aopposed to whether Brendan Nelson reamains oppositio leader- who fcking cares?) adn I would love the opportunity to learn more about them as I have been doing about the US economic situation, thanks to the fantastic contributions from all of you.
    Interested to hear what you think.

  21. 121
    Chris B says:

    Start our own OZ politics site. No moron’s.

  22. 122
    jen says:

    CB- don’t know how- and no point if no one else is interested.

  23. 123
    Catrina says:

    jen at 119
    Set yourself up as a contributor, write a post, and we publish it. In the meantime we keep the US related threads ticking over.


  24. 124
    megan says:

    Count me in ,Jen,

    A quick squiz and noticed your valiant effort and mauling as though you are some pesky intruder.
    You’re a much braver soul than I !

    Much as I enjoy reading Bushfire Bill,CrikeyWhitey,Socrates, Scorpio,JV, et al, the venom from some of the others stays with me long after I have logged off.

    Can do without the aggro.

    Suspect it is just a matter of ‘ the nail that sticks up gets hammered ‘.

  25. 125
    HusseinWorm says:

    Jen, have you tried Larvatus Prodeo? It’s a little static for my liking but has lots of very smart people contributing.

  26. 126
  27. 127
    Chris B says:

    Votemaster is up now, one presidential poll and six senate polls. It also tells you how you can win a bet by betting on Parker to win the AL-05 house seat.


  28. 128
    jen says:

    Fair enough Catrina- of course the US thread should, nay MUST continue.
    Maybe it’s just that the contrast was a bit obvious and I much prefer the culture here.
    However I am also interested in other issues so Hussein , I’ll give it a go.
    Night all.
    Kirri- I hope you have better one.

  29. 129
    Chris B says:


    Obama has 7-point edge on McCain: Reuters poll.

    Democrat Barack Obama has a 7-point lead on Republican John McCain in the U.S. presidential race, and holds a small edge on the crucial question of who would best manage the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

    More than a month after kicking off the general election campaign, Obama leads McCain by 47 percent to 40 percent. That is slightly better than his 5-point cushion in mid-June, shortly after he clinched the Democratic nomination fight against New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

    All 5 polls have Obama in front on 3, 4, 6, 7 and 9%

    See here for the new poll.

    and Votemaster for the other polls.


  30. 130
    Chris B says:

    Jen went to bed last night just minutes before the new polls. Guess what she’s done it again.

  31. 131
    jen says:

    No CB ! I’m still here…
    And i still don’t reckon they polls are reflecting the real story, (it’s a zeitgeist kind of thing).

    And for a little reminder of why some of us may prefer it here – check out tonight’s PB…

  32. 132
    Chris B says:

    I agree, they don’t reflect the real story. State polls are more accurate. I think it is impossible to poll the whole of the USA and get an accurate reflection of the real situation.

  33. 133
    Enemy Combatant says:

    Kirri at 114, always difficult to try and educate bad mugs.

    More good news polls for BHO, Chris. He’s cruising.

    Jen, tomorrow’s gonna be a better day, sleep tight.



  34. 134
    blindoptimist says:

    I’m with jen. I think climate-change policy is – in its own grueling way – the super-issue. I for one am not convinced that Emissions Trading is the way to go. EMS seems like a cute device. But I have an inkling that it would be cheaper/ easier/ more efficient just to licence polluters for a fixed term and tax their emissions (on the one hand), while actively seeking to enable new technologies on the other. I just don’t trust a laissez faire approach to get the best result for the future of the planet.

    Maybe I’m just to dumb to really grasp EMS in action. I’d value a thread on this. Maybe we have 3 threads in the making: the polls and campaigns, the economy and the climate.

  35. 135
    blindoptimist says:

    Well chosen polls, Chris. Keep it up…..:)

  36. 136
    blindoptimist says:


    “Derivatives Signal Bank Funding Difficulties Will Persist
    By Liz Capo McCormick

    July 16 (Bloomberg) — Interest-rate derivatives traders are increasingly betting that banks’ difficulties shoring up balance sheets won’t abate this year.

    The difference, or spread, between the dollar London interbank offered rate and the overnight index swap rate on contracts trading in the forwards market reached all-time highs this week, according to data tracked by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. The spread is an indirect measure of the availability of funds in the money market and of banks’ willingness to lend. Forwards signal what traders expect in the future.”

  37. 137
    blindoptimist says:


    “U.S. Consumer Prices Climb by the Most Since 2005 (Correct)
    By Shobhana Chandra

    July 16 (Bloomberg) — Prices paid by U.S. consumers jumped in June by the most since 2005 on spiraling costs for fuel and food, intensifying the pressure on households struggling with falling home prices and the credit crunch.

    The cost of living soared 1.1 percent, more than forecast, after a 0.6 percent gain the prior month, the Labor Department said today in Washington……

    Today’s figures also showed wages decreased 0.9 percent in June after adjusting for inflation, the biggest drop since August 1984, and were down 2.4 percent over the last 12 months. The drop in buying power is one reason economists forecast consumer spending will slow…”

  38. 138
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    133 blindoptimist

    Price inflation and asset deflation.

    You wouldn’t be Bernanke for quids, would you?

    I saw Obama on Lehrer tonight saying there are 7,000 foreclosure a day in the US at the moment!

    And the recession has only just started, with subprime being the first wave, but the collapse of house prices and the rise in unemployment and the cost of living will set off the defaults in the prime market.

    And what you’ve pointed out is that the banks are de-leveraging and that will help drive house prices lower without a gushing liquidity to flood into the market as it’s been doing until recently.

    Das reckons we are on the cusp of long downward spiral and a protracted bear market. So far, he’s been on the money.

  39. 139
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    128 jen

    There were some good posts by a few people in discussion with Possum, but of course Eddy was still throwing his own faeces around, as usual.

    It was nice to see Possum tell him he’s jerk, though, wasn’t it? LOL

  40. 140
    blindoptimist says:

    “134 Kirribilli Removals
    Price inflation and asset deflation….You wouldn’t be Bernanke for quids, would you?”

    KR, you’re right. But Really, I don’t think inflation will be a problem for long. We have had the dot.com bubble and the housing bubble. The next to pop will be the China bubble. Things are already slowing down in some parts as credit tightens. Notice how steeply BHP and Rio have fallen lately. This is a clear sign that growth expectations are being re-written.

    The latest stats from the US show a decline in household incomes. This must reflect in declining consumer spending, which will soon kill off any inflationary demand in the US. Meanwhile, Europe, the UK, Japan and India are all decelerating.

    The real trouble may well start if the Chinese find they need to repatriate their capital. They have been very adroit at building reserves, but may not find it is so easy to get all their money back in a hurry. There has been a lot of export-oriented investment in China – maybe too much, as in East Asia in the 90’s. Their trade numbers have already come back a bit, so who knows: maybe more dramas lie ahead.

    Meanwhile, risk-aversion is being amplified and starting to be a factor in the behaviour of households and businesses everywhere. The loss of confidence is just starting, I’m afraid…

  41. 141
    Catrina says:

    megan’s post at 124 clear from the spam machine plus 3 from EC

  42. 142
    HarryH says:


    Was just watching Faux News. Crazy John Bolton was almost having a nervous breakdown because the Bush Admin have decided to send a high level delegate to the EU to talk with an Iranian delegate.

    The crazy critter’s moustache was fairly bristling as he moaned about it.

    You could almost hear his crazyass mind ticking over

    Talk?????? who wants to fockin talk….lets just hurry up and bomb these towel-head fockers.

    And to think this nutter was actually running the show at the United Nations. At least our guy was just a pathetic sap and not a crazy mofo like Johnny B.

  43. 143
    Pancho says:

    EC (and others) – Steve Bell with a good take on the New Yorker’s Obama cartoon: http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/jul/16/pressandpublishing.barackobama

  44. 144
    Gaffhook says:

    139 Kirri

    I recall when you put that dogs return one on him a fair while ago and no doubt he will think that every one has forgot and he has been waiting for a while to use it on someone else.
    Yes Possum did shut him up for a while.

  45. 145
    Chris B says:

    If Barack Obama’s historic campaign to become the first black president boosts black turnout as drastically as he predicts, he could crack decades of Republican dominance across the South. That’s a big “if.”

    Still, an Associated Press analysis of U.S. Census and voting data from the past four presidential elections shows a potentially dramatic impact should Obama fulfill his pledge to elevate black participation by 30 percent.

    That would add nearly 1.8 million votes in 11 Southern states, the analysis shows, enough to tip the balance in several that have been Republican strongholds.


  46. 146
    Chris B says:

    The figures in #145 are impressive, but one thing in that article stands out. They assume no Republican voter from last time will change and vote Democrat. Put in a small number of swing voters and the figures look even better.

  47. 147
    Chris B says:

    Swing Lowe, about our discussion on Florida. I completely forgot about the black vote. An extra 10% turn out for the black vote alone could wipe out the previous deficit, then throw in the new voters. But as I said, if Obama and the Democrats can’t win Florida, they shouldn’t be running.

  48. 148
    Chris B says:

    Planned Parenthood Ad Aims at McCain.

    What many are calling Senator John McCain’s “Viagra moment” has become fodder for a new television ad from the Planned Parenthood Action Fund, the political and advocacy arm of the abortion rights group.

    The 30-second ad features a video clip of Mr. McCain’s long, long pause and subsequent “duck” (his word) of a reporter’s question about whether he thinks it is fair that some health insurance companies cover the drug Viagra but not birth control pills.

    Must sign up for NY Times. Very good political section.


  49. 149
    Chris B says:

    Support for presidential hopeful Barack Obama is increasing in the Golden State, according to results of the latest Field Poll released today.

    The presumptive Democratic nominee leads John McCain by 24 percentage points among California voters, coming in at 54 percent to 30 percent. A New York Times/CBS News poll released Tuesday put Obama in the lead nationwide, beating McCain 45 percent to 39 percent.

    “Obama is a voice for change, and we definitely need change,” said Rosalyn Chan of Cupertino, one of the 672 registered voters surveyed by the Field Poll this week.


  50. 150
    Chris B says:

    Obama leads McCain by 6 points in “poll of polls”


  51. 151
    jen says:

    Right – new day. Deep breath, Ignore peurile wankers and onwards…

    Good polls for Obama, Chris. This is a completely unscientific observation adn will curl the hair of the psephs, but on a purely observational basis- Obama is going to wipe out the repugs. He is mobilising people who have never voted to do so, and they won’t be doing it to support the staus quo when their houses are devalued and their jobs are at risk. Not to mention the War, climate change etc for the socially concerned.
    Surely the backlsh will be enormous, even if they weren’t particularly keen on Obama.
    Howard got well and truly whacked here, and yet the economy was relatively stable, so what will happen in the US if the average Joe and Joanne decide to punish the incompetent government that has put them where they are now?
    (apologies to all psephs for having not one scientific basis in that whole agrument!).

  52. 152
    Chris B says:

    Another MoveOn Anti-McCain Ad.

    MoveOn.org has produced a new ad using recent comments by Iraq’s prime minister to make its case that John McCain is wrong about the Iraq war.

    “Timeline” is a 30-second spot that picks up on Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki’s recent statements that he wants a withdrawal timetable for U.S. troops in his country. The ad also notes that “the American people are demanding a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq.”


  53. 153
    Chris B says:

    OK my posts are disappearing again! Whats going on?

    Jen (apologies to all psephs for having not one scientific basis in that whole agrument!). There is such a thing as logic and political nouse, which more than makes up for the scientific basis.

  54. 154
    Chris B says:

    In fact Bush didn’t win his two elections on a scientific basis. Well Karl Rove didn’t, they used nouse to get across the line. They appealed to the religious section of the community, in a certain way, which got the religious vote out, to get them over the line.

  55. 155
    Progressive says:

    Good morning Chris, Jen, and all others!
    California: The Democrats have easily held this state in presidential elections since 1992, it’ll be more of the same this year. I doubt McCain would bother to spend any money in the Golden State, despite Arnie being the governor.
    Another poll: Obama has a good lead in Oregan, and the Democratic senate candidate for that state has hit the lead.
    The Republican candidate for a Democratic house seat in North Carolina has just suspended his campaign: another sign of a Republican heavy loss in November congressional elections(according to Daily Kos)

  56. 156
    Progressive says:

    Chris: the 2004 election was rigged too! The media never picked it up, but the result in Ohio was manipulated by the previous Republican Governor to assist Bush.

  57. 157
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    144 Gaffhook

    ha! Well spotted.

    Doesn’t change his spots does he? It’s funny how quickly you learn to just glide right past some posters, isn’t it?

  58. 158
    blindoptimist says:

    The polls all have McCain running around 40% or, mostly, just under. To me, this suggests he cannot get close to a winning position. Allowing that Barr, Nader and the Greens may accumulate 4-5% of the total, McCain has to get up to the high 40’s to win. It is difficult to see where he is going to get these votes from. Essentially, he has to take away 17-18 out of every 100 votes now leaning to Obama. How can he do this? He certainly has no parcel of hot issues on which he can base a campaign. On the meta issue of renewing America, he cannot possibly compete with Mr Change hmself.

    If any potential votes are moving in large numbers, it is from the a-political/ non-voting public into Obama’s column. The numbers here are enormous: very very much greater than the numbers of votes available by chipping away at your opponent. Of course, mobilizing the disaffected and alienated is not easy, but Obama has shown he can do it.

    McCain has to try to burgle Obama’s support, but I suspect that for every vote he might entice out the side door, 10 new ones will be enlisting in the front office.

    It’s an early call, but I reckon McCain has lost before he’s really begun.

  59. 159
    Chris B says:

    155 Progressive Fortunately we have a Democrat Governor in Ohio now. If you didn’t see it There is an excellent review on Ohio in Real Clear Politics.


  60. 160
    Chris B says:

    Media Stars Will Accompany Obama Overseas.

    Senator John McCain’s trip to Iraq last spring was a low-key affair: With his ordinary retinue of reporters following him abroad, the NBC News anchor Brian Williams reported on his arrival in Baghdad from New York, with just two sentences tacked onto the “in other political news” portion of his newscast.

    But when Mr. Obama heads for Iraq and other locations overseas this summer, Mr. Williams is planning to catch up with him in person, as are the other two evening news anchors, Charles Gibson of ABC and Katie Couric of CBS, who, like Mr. Williams, are far along in discussions to interview Mr. Obama on successive nights.

    You must sign in for NY Times.

  61. 161
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    140 blindoptimist

    That’s one of two broad views on inflation ie it will get crushed by a global slow down, but I’m not completely convinced of the global slowdown in that a major pullback by US consumers is not the massive drag on world trade it once would have been. Sure, it will knock some Chinese exports, but their local demand is raging ahead, as are all the BRIC economies, and even our little contribution is mostly underwritten by Chinese growth at the moment.

    Commodities aren’t retreating in a major way and I’m not expecting them to anytime, and these are the drivers. There’s some pretty savage inflation numbers popping up around the globe, and so far we haven’t seen the worst of it. Oil may retreat to $100 but it’s just a pullback on it’s way to $200, and of course we’ll see some tapering of demand but the reality we have little in the way of options at the moment.

  62. 162
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    157 blindoptimist

    Yep, he’s toast and he’s just going through the motions, and very unconvincingly at that.

  63. 163
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    148 Chris B

    Jon Stewart did a great parody of McCain’s squirming the other night.

    Too easy, huh?

  64. 164
    Progressive says:

    Chris: thanks mate for the link, I’m much more hopeful about Ohio this time because they’ve got a Democratic Governor, Ted Strickland will guarantee a free and fair vote.
    Kirribilli: G’day to you too buddy!

  65. 165
    Chris B says:

    Europe awaits Obama with open arms.

    From prime ministers to college students, Europeans want to cloak Barack Obama in a warm embrace when he arrives on the continent next week. But they’re also aware that anything that looks or smells like elitist Old Europe could hurt the Democratic contender with voters back home.

    Obama has yet to finalize his itinerary for Europe. However, he is already set to skip Brussels, the capital of the modern united continent, for the traditional symbols of economic and military power: London, Paris and Berlin.


  66. 166
    Progressive says:

    I love, love Jon Stewart!

  67. 167
    Swing Lowe says:

    Two new state polls out (both Rasmussen):

    Oregon: Obama +9
    Kansas: McCain +23

    So two fairly clear messages – Obama is doing well in Oregon (but it’s still not a lock), whilst McCain is going to win Kansas easily. Even if Sebelius is on Obama’s ticket, it is highly unlikely that would be enough to turn around a 23 point difference in the polls.

  68. 168
    Chris B says:

    166 Swing Lowe Kansas won’t even turn pink, not surprising. I do expect Oregon to turn dark blue though as well as picking up a senate seat.

  69. 169
    Chris B says:

    Oregon is one of those states that if Obama doesn’t clean up he shouldn’t be running.

  70. 170
    Swing Lowe says:

    And four new Senate polls:

    Oregon (Rasmussen): Tie (Republican incumbent)
    Kansas (Rasmussen): Sen. Roberts (R) +28
    North Carolina (SurveyUSA): Sen. Dole (R) +12
    South Dakota (Rasmussen): Sen. Johnson (D) +22

    Kansas looks like a Safe GOP retain, whilst South Dakota looks like a Safe Dem retain.

    In NC, Libby Dole is looking safer after some earlier polls showed a close race developing. Hagan (the Dem challenger) needs to get Dole to below 50% in the polls (currently she’s up 54-42) to have any sort of chance. The Dems need to win seats like NC to have any sort of chance of getting 60 seats in the Senate.

    In Oregon, this poll is an improvement for the Dems. Previously Sen. Smith (R) has been up in most polls, so the fact that it’s now a tie is positive for the Dems. This seat is in the second tier of Dem targets this year (along with AK, MN and MS), which come after the presumably easy 4 pickups in NH, NM, CO and VA.

  71. 171
    megan says:

    Hi Pobusers,

    To avoid getting my hopes up too high again, I found this a very good read:

    “The Biggest Election Story Not on your TV” by David Swanson,

    includes ‘Tampering with Free and Fair Elections…..’

    and ‘Conspiracy to Violate Voting Rights…”


    (Apologies if it was posted while I was away.)

  72. 172
    Chris B says:

    162 Kirribilli Removals Too easy. I hope you going well KR.

  73. 173
    Chris B says:

    148 Chris B Ah, I see my missing post turned up, now I understand KR.

  74. 174
    megan says:

    Yes,Kirri, great to see you in good form.

  75. 175
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    G’day Prog, and yep Stewart is the master. Brains and wit and a damned clever range of comedic talents for a guy who sits behind a desk!

  76. 176
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    Chris B, fine today thanks, but I won’t talk about the other day! LOL

  77. 177
    megan says:

    That’s two in the sinbin!

  78. 178
    Chris B says:

    169 Swing Lowe Just watch some of these polls after his European Tour. Barring any major gaffes, which are always possible. Although some news people think that scratching his arm the wrong way is a major gaffe. Morning FAUX.

  79. 179
    Progressive says:

    Kirribilli: we all have shit days now and then, me included!
    That’s life LOL
    Chris: I think the Western states are where Obama can eke out a good victory in November(New Mexico, Colorado, Montana, Nevada?). The South will pretty much stay red state territory, with the exception of Virginia(very much up for grabs this time).

  80. 180
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    Too succinct and ironic not to quote, from market master Geoffrey Transom:

    ell, the Goebellsian machine has been in overdrive lately – according to all the pundits, the Fed and the Treasury are so gifted that they ought to be given the benefit of the doubt as regards their ability to fix Fannie and Freddie – the two Frankenstein’s Monsters which arose out of FDRs attempt to turn the US into a Socialist Paradise.

    Never mind that the US spent trillions of dollars (and slaughtered millions of brown. slanty-eyed little folks in South East Asia, leaving a toxic wasteland in its wake) in order to save the world from the evils of Central Planning… that’s not relevant right now that the pundit class wants George Bush to be given the powers of a King, and for the entire US financial system to be run by a bunch of politically-appointed carrer bureaucrats. Cold War? What Cold War?

    Stalin must be absolutely laughing his arse off – first he got given Eastern Europe by Churchill and FDR at Yalta, dooming two hundred million people to socialism for half a century. And now ‘his’ system – militarised nationalism with central planning and a vindictive venal autocracy which places itself above the law – has now been adopted holus-bolus by Washington.


    ..sums it up pretty nicely, huh?

  81. 181
    Enemy Combatant says:

    Mornin’ All, Great to see you Gaffhook, Megan, HarryH.
    Pancho at 143, timely opinion from Guardian cartoonist, Steve Bell re the NYer toon terrorists jabbers Mich & Barry. Think it’s best if all the feathers start flying early on this issue (BHO is a Muzzie terrorist crap) rather than the last couple of weeks of the campaign. Only the idiot bigot who wouldn’t vote for Obi anyway are going to be negatively influenced by the rather stunning cartoon.

    More toonies after lunch, spaninator willing, and will have some details about out Nov5 get together to watch the Big One too.

  82. 182
    Swing Lowe says:

    KR @ 176,

    Fair enough – but what’s the alternative?

    Let F&F go down in flames, taking the rest of the US (and half the global) economy down with it?

    Somehow I don’t see Bernanke or Bush (or McCain or Obama) allowing that to happen…

  83. 183
    Chris B says:

    175 Progressive Have a look at #145 it may change you mind about the south. The article does not take into account some Repugs voters from last time may change sides as well.

  84. 184
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    178 Swing Lowe

    It’s a case of not having a really free market in the first place SL. By having quasi-government agencies artificially pricing risk and ratcheting up the leverage on mortgages it set the stage for this debacle. Pumping more cash into it will not fix the systemic problems, just perpetuate them.

    Ultimately F&F will need to dismantled so the market can adjust and set realistic prices, but in the meantime, they are panicked into propping up the collapsing twin towers. But it cannot last, the inherent instability is there for all to see, and so they must, in the end, go.

    As for confidence in the US government to get them out of this?

    Are you joking? LOL

  85. 185
    Chris B says:

    I am also expecting the Obama campaign to run a very good campaign. If the can’t do that with things running heavily in their favour, stand aside and let me have a go :)

  86. 186
    Chris B says:

    Just to look at things as they stand.

    Issues are running very heavily in Obama’s favour.

    Money running heavily in Obama’s favour.

    New voter enrollment heavily in Obama’s favour.

    Black voters Heavily in Obama’s favour.

    Latino’s heavily in Obama’s favour.

    Campaign and organisation structure heavily in Obama’s favour.

    If the Democrats cannot win in a landslide under those conditions, they will never win again, boy are we in trouble.

  87. 187
    Chris B says:

    Use of new technology heavily in Obama’s favour. I think the Repugs are using carrier pigeon and peddling a bike to generate power:)

  88. 188
    Chris B says:

    With troglodytes, neocons and cavemen running the White house, most of them won’t know how to turn on a computer let alone use it. This is the sort of person the Repugs employ.


  89. 189
    Chris B says:

    Obama plans birthday fete in Boston.

    Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama will celebrate his 47th birthday in Boston with a giant fundraising event at the State Room on Aug. 4.


  90. 190
    Chris B says:

    It’s the economy stupid!!!!

    Poll: Economic Troubles Put Burdens On Floridians.

    In the upcoming election, there’s now clearly one major issue: the economy. A new poll shows that seven out of 10 voters in two swing states — Florida and Ohio — say it’s a top issue in deciding how they’ll vote for president.

    To understand what aspects of the downturn are causing the most problems, NPR teamed with the Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard’s School of Public Health to conduct a poll of people in those two states.

    In Florida, half of those polled say they’re struggling not just with one, but with multiple economic problems.


  91. 191
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    186 Chris B

    Pelosi, in a news conference the other day:

    “It’s the economy….(pause)…Mr President”

    The attendant reptiles of the press chuckled audibly.

    Respect for the incumbent moron is truly in the gutter.

  92. 192
    Chris B says:

    Thank goodness somebody else is here. Thought I might be talking to myself.

  93. 193
    Chris B says:

    Obama: The Half-Billion-Dollar Man.

    Is Barack Obama worth $500 million? The Democratic Party is betting he’ll help bring in about that much — if not more.

    As the public face of the party, Obama is responsible for both his own campaign’s fund-raising and for that of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) — a combined estimated goal of $450 million. He has also pledged to help Hillary Clinton with her reported $20-million debt to various vendors, and congressional Democrats are hoping that Obama’s financial coattails will be tens of millions of dollars long for their own electoral purposes.


  94. 194
    jen says:

    Ha! The guy is a laughing stock – what I don’t get is how anyone EVER took him seriously – he was clearly a moron from the first time I heard the guy open his mouth.
    (hope you had a better night).

  95. 195
    jen says:

    Germaine doesn’t mention the ‘H’ word, but gee, wonder who she was backing??

  96. 196
    jen says:

    Never fear CB- you are not alone.

  97. 197
    Chris B says:

    Yeh, but while I’m the only one on I don’t like to post to much, somebody might be counting. Oh, I forgot he’s not here.

  98. 198
    Chris B says:

    DNC chief to embark on Southern bus tour, hoping to register voters to turn Dixie Democratic.

    Dean said in a telephone interview that he’ll focus on winning over people who are struggling economically.

    “We think that they have been disillusioned,” said Dean, a former Vermont governor and presidential candidate in 2004. “Many of them voted for George Bush. We think they want something new and we’re going to provide it for them.”


  99. 199
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    190 jen

    Yeah, the ‘I’m not economist…I’m am optimist’ sounded so feeble and lame you’d wish the big crook would slide across the screen and grab him by the neck and just yank him off stage.

    Come November it will and by 09 we will have done our best to forget what a travesty he is, and what godawful stuff he’s rained down upon them.

  100. 200
    Chris B says:

    195 Kirribilli Removals It’s good for the Democrats if he keeps the crap up till November.