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Red is Blue and the Whitehouse Black

Left is right; Keynes is King; Banks are poor and your average worker is….well…poorer. And in the midst of it two candidates vie for what has become the poisoned chalice that is the Presidency of the United States.

Look at what’s happening in the world right now. Today’s Crikey headline summed it up well: “Everywhere you look: Carnage!” They’re talking about the world economy – the response to the Bail Out has been less that bullish with the stock markets in the USA, Europe, Japan, Russia – hell let’s just say everywhere – heading south today.

Carnage could just as easily describe John McCain’s campaign. The two are linked like Siamese twins – and one of them has died. Actually, it’s more like Siamese triplets….the Bush Government, the world economy and the McCain campaign. One has died, one is dying and the third is stumbling around carrying the dead weight. That’s what happens with the conjoined – you just can’t get away from your siblings. So there’s Macca dragging around a corpse (Bush) and a near corpse (the economy). We won’t mention those other albatrosses (oh yes we will) – the wars he says could last a hundred years or his VP pick from hell.

And as the world around him panicswhat does the Siamese Triplet do? I said it earlier – to counter this threat McCain will start seriously addressing the issues of concern to the electorate, thus re-establishing his credibility and restoring confidence in his ability to govern with wisdom and compassion. NAH! Chucking mud is easier. So while Grandpa and Minnie indulge in shadow mud wrestling, the markets take yet another dive and the people’s confidence in McCains ability to lead plummets. McCain’s answer? More mud! Even if it’s old mud – Ayers, Rezko & Wright. Some’s gotta stick, right?? Yep John – but it’s stickin’ to you!”

Over at Time Online Mike Murphy wrote

“Palin should drop the braying attacks on Obama’s aging hippie bomber pals and start connecting to her cherished hockey moms on the one issue they are actually worried about; a quickly slowing economy. Chuck the hacky and ineffective negative ads and switch to man on the street spots with real people voicing their real doubts about Obama; too weak to stand up to Washington’s mighty special interest cartel or the newly empowered Democratic bosses of the Congress and Senate, too liberal to know how to fix the economy, too inexperienced to handle a dangerous world. On Tuesday, McCain should look into the camera and connect to the 80 million scared and worried Americans who will be watching him.”

RCP’s Jay Cost disagrees. He thinks McCain’s only option is to keep throwing the mud. “One party’s vicious smear is the other’s vital truth. That’s just the way it is” he opines today.

Jay is wrong. A panicked America isn’t listening. They want comfort, they want assurance and they want answers. McCain isn’t giving any of it it so they’re dropping the old guy like a stone. Look at the numbers! The map is a mass of blue. Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, New Mexico. Commenting on today’s polls 538’s Nate Silver says:

“Are John McCain’s negative attacks succeeding in eating into some of Barack Obama’s support? They certainly aren’t yet. In fact, Barack Obama has had perhaps his strongest individual polling day of the year…You can read these numbers as well as I can. Obama leads by 6 in North Carolina? 12 in Virginia? 7 in Florida? 3 in Missouri? Obviously, I am cherrypicking some of the more pro-Obama results here … but the point is, there are a lot of favourable results these days for Barack Obama.”

So if McCain looks tired and burdened going into the next debate. Sympathise. He’s carrying a lot of baggage. If he’s looking blue, it’s just the reflection of what’s going on all around him.

671 replies on “Red is Blue and the Whitehouse Black”

Today’s Daily Kos/Research 2000 tracking poll

OBAMA 51
MCIDIOT 41

No change, Obama’s lead is holding at 10 points or more

The sheriff who called Obama “Hussein” at that rally is in serious shit, 9 out of 10 letters to the local newspaper in his area are from those pissed off with him campaigning for McCain!
Also, someone else at another McCain rally who called out that Obama should be killed, he is being investigated by the secret service.

Yeah Ferny it got sticky for an hour or so there. seems alright now.

Progressive

regards the Research2000 tracker.

It is steady at +10 but the better news is last night recorded a +12 compared with +8 and +9 before McSeniles performance in the debate.

No probs here with the site, Ferny. Hope the cable guy from telstra hasn’t been digging up your garden again.

And thanks Gippslander, apres and Gaffy for your kind words.
—————————-
Activating “The Base” attained a greater degree of difficulty for Steve “Schmuckens” Schmidt as the clock kept ticking relentlessly in the countdown to E-Day.

http://bp3.blogger.com/_5tK8vlG7818/Rn59UmOB5_I/AAAAAAAAAOU/9PBY-bjT8zA/s1600-h/imbeciles.jpg

http://www.sott.net/image/image/8751/prowarprot_2.jpg

http://bp1.blogger.com/_5tK8vlG7818/RtDZzejS4cI/AAAAAAAAASQ/FpsKbTEYURE/s1600-h/brain.jpg

Harry: I’d expect Obama’s lead will grow in the next few days, as the post debate reaction starts to feed into the polls.
Presumably that’s why McSenile is again raving about William Ayers!

Hussy, under different circumstances some of the Ayers mud might have had a chance of sticking. In the current economic climate it may even serve to ramp up the “throw the bums out” factor.
Hell hath no fury like a rube who finally wises up to a bodgie game of three card Monte.

This has nothing to do with the election, EC. This is all about stirring the base into the type of hysteria which has historically got people killed. The sh!t that McCain and Palin are throwing at the moment doesn’t wash off the day after the election. John McCain, Fckn war hero.

Wow – rocked up this evening, logged in, took a look at the stats page – noticed a big spike in traffic (the highest since our declaration of independence) – first thought through my mind was ‘shit’ something going pear shaped in the election campaign. Flipped open a window with 358 details – it just showed Obama even further ahead than yesterday. Pulled up Gallup Daily and I see Obama pulling further ahead. I open up the New York Times and there is nothing there to justify a spike. Took a quick look on the Huff and TPM – but nothing dramatic. So I figure I’m just going to have to read through hundreds of comments and figure out when is going on.

After getting though about hundred or so comments I got the drift – PB in the news and presumably a large spectator crowd (we know the usual suspects are lurking). Anyway – after reading some interesting stuff debating questions about PB and WB, I came across a comment from William to which I have to set the record strait:

William Bowe at 290

Indeed, I’m told Catrina actively attempted to engage the participation of some of these very same trolls who you all think I erred in not banning.

For the record – following the notification of the creation of the initial wordpress site on PB, the only person I attempted to engage was Possum. I am aware that some low life individuals over on PB have asserted conflicting stories – but can assure everyone that the scum bags in question were simply trying to pull William’s chain.

apres at 384

This site is becoming my default political blog, except that I lament the singleminded focus on US politics.

Up on the top of the page just under the Politic 101 title are the words “Opinion and analysis on global politics, events and the people in power …”. Consider that phrase our charter. I agree with you that the focus right now is somewhat singleminded and I have to plead guilty to being a party to this. We are just getting going, we don’t know what lies ahead. But just between you and me – shit happens around this planet all the time and the scope of our charter is sufficiently broad to cover this evolving planet. Today – we are blooming, but the single mindedness is in part a reflection of our capabilities which at the end of the day are linked to the number of post contributors we can bring in while preserving social sanity. It’s a balancing act act and God knows if we have it right or not – but if feels good. I think we have some things right – and I happy about where we are today. But to get back to your point – I’m personally really keen see the moment we branch out into the full geopolitic spectrum.

Today … baby steps .. tomorrow the world.

Ferny Grover at 402

Anyone else having problems with the site tonight? It keeps crashing on me.

I’ve seen a number of problems this evening. It looks like the SQL server backing the blog engine has been having some problems. Some people over in North Carolina have been working on the problem – and things seem to be a bit better in the last couple of hours. Which brings me to an important point – this site would not be possible without the support of the University of North Carolina – they are providing the storage facilities, and application hosting,the pipes (and I’m talking really big pipes), operational maintenance, technical support, and a lot of love. To everyone thanking me – all I can say is, it ain’t me, its the Republican State of North Carolina via funding from George Bush combined with some resources scattered across Europe that are ultimately the ones who keep us alive and well.

Yes, I know, “ironic” is a word that springs to mind.

🙂

Hussy, give it a mo to load. IA, CO and NM are in the bag for The Kid. No point in playing silly buggers with States that have a > 70% probability.

. http://www.intrade.com/

Then click on FL, NC, VA ,OH, and NV. Take a deep breath, comrade, then smile knowing that tonight you can sleep the sleep of the just.

I’m not suggesting that Obi is in zero danger of being taken out. He’s got the best couple of Secret Service details that money can’t buy. And he won’t be taking any ride in an open limo in a motorcade in Dallas or addressing supporters from a low-rent balcony in Memphis or walking thru any crowded California hotel kitchens. However, there may be a chance of Earth being hit by a monster “rogue” meteorite in which case we’ll all be rooted. Cosmic billiards is a savage and unpredictable game and seldom factored into the mix of professional psephologists.

http://www.intrade.com/

http://www.truthdig.com/cartoon/item/20081009_kill_the_media/

Hussy, also suggest you click on our right column link to 538 Nate and have a gander at the %s in the left hand column.

On a cetibus paribus type-situation going forward, old mate, The Kid’s not gonna win, he’s going to shit in:)

And nota bene Casper:

GhostWhoVotes has wisdom of ten tigers*

*old jungle saying

Ghost and EC. Not saying it’s teh narrowing, just saying we might see a bit of movement back to McCain in the state polls. The Rasmussen poll has moved 3 points over the last 2 days, from +8 to +5. Perhaps i’m just getting bored of all the good news and letting my overactive imagination lead me down the path. 😀

Catrina, William was spamming us all afternoon, I’d be sending Crikey a bill for all the advertising. You can’t ban him can you? 😛

HusseinWorm at 416

William was spamming us all afternoon

Yep – you and I are in sync. with respect to thinking processes.

You can’t ban him can you?

I though about it following WB’s final sentence in his 290 comment – but the bottom line is that he was simply relaying bullshit passed to him from the usual suspects. At the end of the day I don’t think we should be banning people for being associated with deadbeats – but, I would suggest that future trolling for PB sympathy would fall into the category of off-topic-attempts-at-harvesting-page-view-numbers and as such would justify editorial intervention.

🙂

COMMUNITY NOTICE

Just a note on site performance. Early I implied that the problems were related to the back end data store over in the States. That assumption may have been premature. I’m seeing a bunch of problems across US sites which raises questions about the networks between here and there. If data packets are being dropped due to international network issues, this could impact our perception of server behaviour. Bottom line – I’m now not sure what is happening but I can confirm that there is a problem.

Hopefully things will clear up soon.

/Cat.

Latest US Polls:

Gallup is unchanged (Obama 52, McCain 41).
Rasmussen is back to a 5-point race (Obama 50, McCain 45).

Thanks to the posters on 538.com for these latest State Rasmusse polls:

Florida
O-50
M-47

North Carolina
O-49
M-48

Indiana
O-43
M-50

Michigan
O-56
M-40

New Jersey
O-50
M-42

President Obama … President Obama … say it a few times and you’ll notice how it rolls naturally and easily off the tongue.

Good morning trolls, good to see you keeping tabs on us. 😈
Obama is really about to put the knife in.

Exclusive: Obama buys half-hour of network prime time

<Barack Obama has purchased a half-hour of airtime on CBS and NBC, sources confirm.

The Obama campaign will air a prime time special on Wednesday, Oct. 29, at 8 p.m.

Sources say the Obama camp also talked to Fox, but the network may not be able to accomodate the campaign as the time period might conflict with a potential Game 6 of the World Series.
http://www.thrfeed.com/2008/10/obama-primetime.html

EC and Megan
After reading this article i feel a bit more at ease about whether the Repugs can steal it this time. Not a bad read!

The only fraud strategies available are through electronic voting machines and outright changes in vote totals. Thus, with fewer tools (disenfranchisement and suppression are out for this group), election fraud would need wipe out 14% of the estimated vote.

That’s to obvious and that’s why the “net new” voters from the Democratic primaries in these four key swing states, the mid and southeastern Atlantic states, and any other state that fit this 2008 primary voting pattern represent the best assurance against election fraud available.

Internet researcher anaxarchos made the point in blunt terms in a communication to the author:

“It is not enough to steal votes. You need a place to stuff them. You can sell cocaine but in the end you have to explain how your Starbucks franchise brings in $80 million per year. There will be widespread fraud and caging and suppression but, as of today, I see no possible place to stuff it. It was hard enough in 2004 and that was ‘close’.”

It’s as though the people are looking at the election thieves and saying, “Go ahead. Make my day.”

http://www.opednews.com/articles/2008–The-Difficulty-Stea-by-Michael-Collins-081009-691.html

Morning Obamaphiles- 😆
The polls are good , the sun is shining and the markets are crashing around our ears. All we can do is look ahead in the hope that someone will workout what to do, and odds on it won’t be Sarah Palin.
Looks like The Bailout is a turkey – what next???…

Could be a slight backlash amongst the religious nutbags when they realize she she is a different kind of nutbag to what they first thought. They may even stay at home and not bother to vote when they find out.

However, McCain’s biggest problem has been his poor judgment in picking Sarah Palin!
McCain’s fear is that “the Evangelical swoon for Palin could fade if it turned out that they were aware that she continued to hold fast to Pentecostal practices and beliefs. Palin’s most consistent religious home has been the Pentecostal church of her youth…………….. It is this Pentecostal association that most concerns and confuses the McCain campaign. As Minnery makes clear, millions of evangelicals have accepted Palin because of her membership in a Bible church. But there is no denying that mainstream Evangelicals and Pentecostals, while political allies on many social issues, have historically had significant tensions over theological differences.”

http://www.opednews.com/articles/McCain-Hides-Palin-s-Pent-by-Angellight-081009-243.html

Mrs TrailorTrash is at it again.

The Alaska governor told Ingraham’s listeners that if those questions were being answered, voters would find Obama “out of the mainstream,” adding that the Illinois senator would diminish “the prestige of the United States presidency.”

Love it Gaffers – the Evangelicals and the Fundies disagree on …what The existence of God?? 😆

Not in the same street as the “Pundit” but not a bad piss taker!

McCain spokesman, Tucker Bounds, denies any real relationship between McCain and the Jacksons.
“John McCain was only 38 years old when the Jacksons were really hot,” said Bounds, “While they did sing in the same musical circles and wore similar hair styles that were hip at the time, voters have to remember that John McCain voted against creating a holiday to honor Martin Luther King Jr. If I’m not mistaken, both King and the Jackson’s were black.”
Despite Bounds denials, the record offers a different perspective of McCain’s earlier life.

http://www.opednews.com/articles/BREAKING-McCain-Linked-To-by-steve-young-081009-124.html

It must have been one of those blond moments. Cindy very upset and indignant about BO voting against money for the troops because it had no timetable in it, but nothing about her husband McStupid voting against money for the troops two months earlier because it had a timetable in it.
And the good old MSM beats it up!

Summary: The New York Times, The Washington Post, and Morning Joe reported Cindy McCain’s attack on Sen. Barack Obama that his “vote to not fund my son while he was serving sent a cold chill through my body.” However, none of their reports noted that Sen. John McCain himself voted against legislation to fund the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

http://mediamatters.org/items/200810090006

6000 bogus vote caging challenges made last week by the GOP have now been withdrawn after the Dems have slapped them with a law suit. Things are looking up a bit.

One of the GOP’s challenged voters turned out to be an Army Reservist who would be unable to verify his authenticity — and thus would lose his right to vote under the challenge — since he was in New Jersey, about to ship out for his second tour of duty in Iraq……………….
Yesterday, we’re happy to announce, faced with a party actually willing to push back by taking them to court, the Montana GOP “waved the white flag of surrender” and backed off their phony challenges, according to AP:

In a letter sent to election officials in seven counties today (Tuesday), Montana Republican Party executive director Jacob Eaton said he was withdrawing the challenges and would be issuing no more.

http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6482

Dem strategists see landslide in the making.

Three weeks of historic economic upheaval have done more than just tilt a handful of once reliably Republican states in Barack Obama’s direction. Democratic strategists are now optimistic that the ongoing crisis could lead to a landslide Obama victory.

Four large states John McCain once seemed well-positioned to win — Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida — have in recent weeks shifted toward Obama. If Obama were to win those four states — a scenario that would represent a remarkable turn of events — he would likely surpass 350 electoral votes.

David. “It’s getting closer”. 😈

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14413.html

Chris B@422

Now now Chis. Let’s not be unkind to trolls.
After all, we have to remember they’re just homeless people who live under bridges.
What’s worse, they’re currently being forced to survive on a humble diet of schadenfreude, sticks and dirt. 🙂

And speaking of schadenfreude….
That (failed) master of the economic universe, a certain
Mr A. Greenspan, has
lurched into print with a wondrously titled tome.
The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World.

(The Age of Flatulence might be a better title.)

A small extract

But I am also increasingly persuaded that governments and central banks could not have importantly altered the course of the boom either. To do so, they would have had to induce a degree of economic contraction sufficient to nip the budding euphoria. I have seen no evidence, however, that electorates in modern democratic societies would tolerate such severity in macroeconomic policy to combat a prospective problem that might not even materialise. Periodic surges of euphoria and fear are manifestations of deep-seated aspects of human nature, and realistically there is little that governments or central banks have been able to do to divert or defuse them.

http://newmatilda.com/2008/10/09/greenspan-says-its-crisis-we-had-have

In other words…..”It wasn’t my fault”

While it’s fairly scary and sad to watch the financial carnage spreading around the globe.
The knowledge that we are finally seeing the end of Bush and the neocons is at least some consolation.

With polling in Kentucky suddenly showing Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) in a dead heat with Democratic upstart Bruce Lunsford, Senate Republicans are privately starting to worry their leader could be knocked off and have begun contemplating what their leadership might look like in his absence.

McConnell still retains a significant cash advantage over Lunsford, and Kentucky is a conservative, Republican-leaning state. But a Mason-Dixon Polling and Research survey conducted late last month showed McConnell with 45 percent and Lunsford with 44 percent, while a SurveyUSA poll taken at the same time showed the margin at 49 percent to 46 percent.

Those numbers have so encouraged Democrats that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee this week went up with its first TV ad against McConnell — something that even DSCC Chairman Charles Schumer (N.Y.) acknowledged was unthinkable a few weeks ago.

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/54_46/news/29198-1.html?type=printer_friendly

437 paddy. Is it Wabbit Season Duck Season or Troll Season?
We’re hunting Trolls.
Shoot the Troll, Shoot the Troll! 😈

Nah Chris.
We’re after bigger game.
It’s hedge fund season.
Wall street lifted the ban on short selling last night and ……………
WHOOPS!!

Mind you, Wabbit stuffed with troll pate sounds good for lunch. 🙂

Branchflower may still bring down some kind of finding about the skulduggery of the Fence though it may not be about the firing of Moneghan. That part of it is the subject of law suits to have it stalled but teh Worker’s Comp disclosures can not be stalled it seems. One of the witnesses has flipped under oath.
From reports it appears that the Worker’s Comp issue is far more important than the sacking side of it. Could be interesting!

The real damage to Palin from Troopergate comes with an injury claim involving trooper Wooten when he hurt his back while in the line of duty.

Independent investigator Steve Branchflower testified recently he believes someone in the governor’s office tried to block Wooten’s workers’ compensation injury benefits.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/30/11451/4129/817/615479

Gaffers@430-
The bible is a tome containing historically accurate infromation about the origin of mankind and all the rules and customs we should live by. For exmaple you and I came into existance beacuse some slapper ate an apple, and if you steal from me I’m allowed to cut your hand off to teach you a lesson. However If you rape me you get to stone me to daeth beacuse I tempted you… Or maybe that’s a another book. Anyway, it’s recommended reading .. Sarah Palin is a big fan.

437 Paddy

The reverse hagiographic process is well under way for Greenspan. In today’s NYTimes they argue:

But others hold a starkly different view of how global markets unwound, and the role that Mr. Greenspan played in setting up this unrest.

“Clearly, derivatives are a centerpiece of the crisis, and he was the leading proponent of the deregulation of derivatives,” said Frank Partnoy, a law professor at the University of San Diego and an expert on financial regulation.

The derivatives market is $531 trillion, up from $106 trillion in 2002 and a relative pittance just two decades ago. Theoretically intended to limit risk and ward off financial problems, the contracts instead have stoked uncertainty and actually spread risk amid doubts about how companies value them.

If Mr. Greenspan had acted differently during his tenure as Federal Reserve chairman from 1987 to 2006, many economists say, the current crisis might have been averted or muted.

Over the years, Mr. Greenspan helped enable an ambitious American experiment in letting market forces run free. Now, the nation is confronting the consequences.

…and you can expect more calls to tar and feather the Mr Magoo of Central Bankers as the horrific results of his myopia sink in.

I’ve maintained for some years that Greenspan will end up the most reviled American of the century (and just a smidgeon in front GW Bush)

Gaffy @443 🙂
My antecedents were both Irish and Scottish (with a bit of English thrown in for sheer bastardry)

Alas, I’ve not heard any decent jokes about McCain.

However…..there was one exchange I saw on blog about the world’s most famous POW. Where one poster found it strangely disconcerting, watching McCain’s body language on stage and in the debates.
There was a general agreement that the awkwardness stemmed from his inability lift his arms above his shoulders. (due to the injuries he sustained in Vietnam)
Moments later, another poster (who was surely Irish) chimed in and said.
Why don’t they just get the moderator at the next debate to ask a simple question.
Which of you two candidates would like to be president?
Please raise your hand.

Groan!!!

ASX is down 7.5% and the needle is swung hard to “FEAR”.

Looks like capitulation to me, and the final mad panic of everyone rushing for the exists at once.

McCain is getting so desperate. Now he has Keating, his campaign co-chair, urging Obama to talk about his experimentation with drugs back in High School.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/

It really is “anything but the issues” for McCain right now, anything to incite fear, all typically Rovian, all the reverse of McCain’s self-avowed honorableness and “putting the country first”. The talking heads on the News channels are all buying into it right now, even at MSNBC. I do hope Americans see beyond it.

McCain has sold out. His behaviour in the debates towards Obama is not just contempt but an attempt to distance himself emotionally from Obama. McCain doesn’t want to like Obama because he knows that if he allowed himself to see Obama as a real, decent guy, he could not continue to run the kind of hate campaign he is currently running. He knows what it is like to be the target of smear attacks after he was accused by Rove and Bush over fathering a Black baby out of wedlock back in the 2000 Republican primaries. He knows how dishonorable and disgusting these tactics are, but it makes it easier if he doesn’t allow himself to like Obama, so he refuses to look him in the eye, he refuses to acknowledge his humanity by calling him “that one”, and leaves the debate quickly to avoid any kind of real-world contact with Obama. Remaining as cold-hearted as possible makes the dive to the gutter easier, but at some point, McCain’s going to have to ask himself why he is trying to be POTUS and are the means really worth the ends. After all this is over and Obama is elected POTUS, McCain will have a lot of soul-searching ahead of him.

453
Noocat

After all this is over and Obama is elected POTUS, McCain will have a lot of soul-searching ahead of him.

And with a bit of luck he and all his crooked mates will be able to do it together in some federal prison somewhere.

#452. Kirri, how do you think Australia will fare in all this mess? Recession? Depression? Or will we escape the worst?

Paddy

All these credit notes and mortgage papers they have and are selling reminds me of a joke an old irishman once told me.

The irishman comes in to the Irish pub and has a carton of tins of sardines for sale. He sells them to the bloke next to him. the bloke who bought them is standing there with them and another bloke comes in to the pub and says hey whats with teh sardines . He says there for sale. Bloke says ill buy them. The bloke adds a pound to what he bought them for and sells them.
Bloke who bought them opens up a tin and starts eating them. First bloke says what are you doin? Bloke says im hungry so i am eating these sardines. First bloke says yer not supposed to be doin that there fer fcuken sellin not fer fcuken eatin.

Hang on guys, I’ll just dust off the crystal ball….

Ah, yes, I see as through a glass darkly…LOL, no seriously, I think the fear thing is being overdone a tad, and the herd is being lead by sheer uncertainty into panic.

If you’ve got nerve, a good time to buy.

How do we fare? We might go into recession, but it won’t be catastrophic if we do. Our banks aren’t at risk as far as I can see, although their profits won’t be as spectacular for a while. Resources will ultimately bounce back and if China boosts its domestic demand (which it will) then we should get through relatively OK.

But in the short term any mad thing could happen as it’s so incredibly volatile and silly things happen when people panic.

Hi KR. I think the equities markets – here and elsewhere – are just reacting to the crisis in the credit markets. Only when the stress in the credit markets start to abate will the fall in equities start to decelerate. Basically, if the credit system can’t be made to operate effectively, there will be no economy to speak of, and very few companies will be worth owning. When legendary businesses – such as GM – appear likely to fail, it is well worth considering what companies can survive a prolonged drought in consumer spending and crisis in the capital markets.

I noticed on Bloomberg this morning that the Singapore economy is tanking. Singapore is tiny, for sure, but highly exposed to the energy, shipping, manufacturing, tourism and trade sectors. It is the canary in the international trade mine.

I was also speaking to a friend of mine in Hong Kong yesterday. He said there have been scenes in the streets of open panic and distress: people breaking down in tears or becoming angry, reacting to the collapse in the Hang Seng, fears for their savings, the seizure in the property market. He also said these things are having immediate affects in consumption: people have stopped spending on all kinds of things. Likewise in China, there are plenty of anecdotal signs of retreat in spending, especially in the boom cities; meantime, demand for electricity, metals and other raw materials is tanking, along with both domestic and external demand for finished manufactures. The property sector is already down 40% in some cities.

I think the equity markets have a very long way to fall yet. By the end of next year, the S&P will be trading on a trailing P/E around 7, maybe less. Considering earnings are going to take a total hammering – maybe off 40- 50% from 2008 levels – even if things start to ease off in the financial system, the US market may still fall another 65% from its current level.

Of course, if the global funds businesses – especially in insurance and the hedge fund sectors – come under pressure to liquidate assets, the market could drop much more. A decline of more than 90% from the 2007 peak is not out of the question. It has happened before – about a century ago in Japan – and could happen again in this environment.

The only upside here is the Republican party is going to be demolished.

Thanks Kirri – doesn’t sound too bad. Obviously not so rosy for the U.S. though, which is a big mess Obama will need to clean up. What a lovely parting gift from Bush.

462
Noocat

Of course if Steve Keen’s forecasts come to pass (or go even close), then we’re in for a big shock. (He reckons that house prices will revert to the historical average against wages, and could fall 40%). It’s hard to imagine things going that sour, but we’re watching this happen in the UK, Europe, Ireland and of course the US, so maybe we will not be immune.

Gottliebsen:

It is possible that today is “the day of no hope”. If it isn’t then it is not far away.

…kinda sums it up, as the hedge funds desperately pull out what cash they can and everyone waits for GM and Ford to go belly up and the Yanks to start jumping out of windows. (Try and imagine the stellar value of derivatives are out there ‘insuring’ punters against a default by GM and Ford. Well you can imagine the carnage if they declared bankruptcy!)

Krugman:

On a separate note, one good thing is that there haven’t been any reports of people on Wall Street jumping out of windows. That’s because the windows in modern office buildings don’t open.

…well, that’s solved one problem then, eh? LOL

OMG, what’s next? Obama takes the lead in Alabama?
If the kid is winning West Virginia, the Republicans will be decimated on November 4.
The last Republican presidential candidate from Arizona was Barry Goldwater, and we know what happened to him in 1964 – ie. Lyndon Johnson won virtually every state in that election.
The parallels with McLame are striking.

Kirribilli Removals: G’day buddy, good to be back here, away from the trolls of Poll Bludger.

With the vast conspiracy that is ACORN, it looks like that the Democrats are finally getting in on some voter fraud action. About time our side got some of them evil geniuses. (Although registering the Dallas Cowboys in Nevada was probably, in hindsight, a bit of a mistake … must have been the Evil Overlord’s dimwitted young cousin or something) 😉

Hi Gang, been out all morning, there was a log jam in the snagged posts, sorry about the late release, but I’m back in the saddle for a couple of hours so feel free to post away—-will check the dungeon regularly for innocent victims.
430 Gaffy
447 KR
461 Bo-Bo (Blind Optimist replies to KR)
463-7 asanque
471 Diogenes

Now…… back to read all those luscious comments:)

I wonder what the possible findings of the TrooperGate inquiry are. Can Palin be indicted for anything, or would it at best be some kind of administrative slap on the wrist?

While it is never technically too late – the Republicans could hold and emergency session and put someone else in any time right up until election day – as they reported on 538, it would have a devastating effect on his get-out-the-vote campaign. It would also be politically dumb.

447
Kirri

I’ve maintained for some years that Greenspan will end up the most reviled American of the century (and just a smidgeon in front GW Bush)

Well Kirri, after today’s little “correction” and when it hits the fan on Wall street tonight.
Mr G might be just be trying to fly with a whole new set of feathers, complete with tar underwear.

Sheesh. Talk about black Friday.
I see even Alan Kohler is giving Kevin a quick slap around the chops.

Kevin Rudd is deluding himself if he thinks he can get away with a half-baked insurance scheme for bank deposits up to $20,000, covering between 80 and 85 per cent of them.

A full government guarantee for Australian bank deposits is now needed – whether it is “necessary” or not.

As Tim Treadgold reports in tonight’s Eureka Report, the Perth Mint is having to put on extra shifts to deal with the demand for bullion and the price of gold is the only commodity that is rising. That’s because there is a steady flood of money out of bank deposits already.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Rudds-half-baked-plan-KA47L?OpenDocument&src=sph
registration (free) required

Apologies all for slipping OT. But global financial meltdown is a bit of a worry and does have some relevance to the US election.

Why McCain didn’t choose Romney or Huckabee for his running mate is a mystery. I know of Republicans who are voting for Obama solely because of Sarah Palin.

The following email has been sent from the Queen and cc’d to myself

To the citizens of the United States of America from Her Sovereign
Majesty Queen Elizabeth II

In light of your failure in recent years to nominate competent
candidates for President of the USA and thus to govern yourselves, we hereby give notice of the revocation of your independence,
effective immediately. (You should look up ‘revocation’ in the Oxford English Dictionary.)

Her Sovereign Majesty Queen Elizabeth II will resume monarchical duties over all states, commonwealths, and territories (except Kansas, which she does not fancy).

Your new Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, will appoint a Governor for
America without the need for further elections.

Congress and the Senate will be disbanded. A questionnaire may be circulated next year to determine whether any of you noticed.

To aid in the transition to a British Crown dependency, the following
rules are introduced with immediate effect:

(To be continued….)

Continued

1. The letter ‘U’ will be reinstated in words such as ‘colour,’
‘favour,’ ‘labour’ and ‘neighbour.’ Likewise, you will learn to spell
‘doughnut’ without skipping half the letters, and the suffix ‘-ize’ will
be replaced by the suffix ‘-ise.’ Generally, you will be expected to
raise your vocabulary to acceptable levels. (Look up ‘vocabulary’).

2. Using the same twenty-seven words interspersed with filler noises such as ”like’ and ‘you know’ is an unacceptable and inefficient form of communication. There is no such thing as U.S. English. We will let Microsoft know on your behalf. The Microsoft spell-checker will be adjusted to take into account the reinstated letter ‘u” and the elimination of ‘-ize.’

3. July 4th will no longer be celebrated as a holiday.

4. You will learn to resolve personal issues without using guns,
lawyers, or therapists. The fact that you need so many lawyers and
therapists shows that you’re not quite ready to be independent. Guns should only be used for shooting grouse. If you can’t sort things out without suing someone or speaking to a therapist, then you’re not ready to shoot grouse.

5. Therefore, you will no longer be allowed to own or carry anything
more dangerous than a vegetable peeler, although a permit will be
required if you wish to carry a vegetable peeler in public.

6. All intersections will be replaced with roundabouts, and you will
start driving on the left side with immediate effect. At the same time, you will go metric with immediate effect and without the benefit of conversion tables. Both roundabouts and metrication will help you understand the British sense of humour.

7. The former USA will adopt UK prices on petrol (which you have been calling gasoline) of roughly $10/US gallon. Get used to it.

(to be continued)

Continued…

8. You will learn to make real chips. Those things you call French
fries are not real chips, and those things you insist on calling potato
chips are properly called crisps. Real chips are thick cut, fried in
animal fat, and dressed not with catsup but with vinegar.

9. The cold, tasteless stuff you insist on calling beer is not actually
beer at all. Henceforth, only proper British Bitter will be referred to
as beer, and European brews of known and accepted provenance will be referred to as Lager. South African beer is also acceptable, as they are pound for pound the greatest sporting nation on earth and it can only be due to the beer. They are also part of the British Commonwealth – see what it did for them. American brands will be referred to as Near-Frozen Gnat’s Urine, so that all can be sold without risk of further confusion.

10. Hollywood will be required occasionally to cast English actors as
good guys. Hollywood will also be required to cast English actors to
play English characters. Watching Andie Macdowell attempt English
dialogue in Four Weddings and a Funeral was an experience akin to having one’s ears removed with a cheese grater.

11. You will cease playing American football. There is only one kind of proper football; you call it soccer. Those of you brave enough will, in time, be allowed to play rugby (which has some similarities to American football, but does not involve stopping for a rest every twenty seconds or wearing full kevlar body armour like a bunch of nancies).

12. Further, you will stop playing baseball. It is not reasonable to
host an event called the World Series for a game which is not played outside of America. Since only 2.1% of you are aware there is a world beyond your borders, your error is understandable. You will learn cricket, and we will let you face the South Africans first to take the sting out of their deliveries.

13. You must tell us who killed JFK. It’s been driving us mad.

14. An internal revenue agent (i.e. tax collector) from Her Majesty’s
Government will be with you shortly to ensure the acquisition of all
monies due (backdated to 1776).

15. Daily Tea Time begins promptly at 4 p.m. with proper cups, with
saucers, and never mugs, with high quality biscuits (cookies) and cakes; plus strawberries (with cream) when in season.

God Save the Queen!

Rundle 08: McCain is done. Juiced.

To call it rewarding ‘moral hazard’ is a gross understatement. This is smack outside the playground stuff. Though the scheme calls for some weak filters – obvious fraudsters, etc – it punishes the scrupulous mortgagee, and rewards the folks who had the home theatre unit and the jacuzzi installed in the McMansion before the ink was even dry on the no-deposit deal. And of course rewards the lenders who put these things out there in the first place…’

At Crickey, not sure if it’s in the free bit or not (3 week trial available if it is)

http://www.crikey.com.au/US-Election/20081010-Rundle-08-McCain-leapfrogs.html

486-8
Ferny

15. Daily Tea Time begins promptly at 4 p.m. with proper cups, with
saucers, and never mugs, with high quality biscuits (cookies) and cakes; plus strawberries (with cream) when in season.

Ooh yes please. Are we there yet?

Noocat at 455:
“He (McCain) knows how dishonorable and disgusting these tactics are, but it makes it easier if he doesn’t allow himself to like Obama, so he refuses to look him in the eye, he refuses to acknowledge his humanity by calling him “that one”, and leaves the debate quickly to avoid any kind of real-world contact with Obama. Remaining as cold-hearted as possible makes the dive to the gutter easier,……”
A bewdy, Nooc! Astutely observed and well written.

Bo-Bo at 461:
“The only upside here is the Republican party is going to be demolished.”
Yes, that’s wonderful enough in itself, Bo-Bo, but a lot more of our species are going to literally have to get back on their (push)-bikes, and growing numbers of people will see merit in many of the locomotive habits of our forebears.
Bought and paid for spruikers for Big Carbon like Petit Mal Turnbull urge that in Oz, green house emissions will have to be pushed back,(ABC radio World Today) but I’ve a notion that if the world financial boffins can act together in lowering interest rates, then world leaders can just as easily act together to deal with the real elephant in the biospheric room——Climate Change/ Global Warming.

Mr Grover

It’s funny eh!

I remember one of those from about 10 yrs ago and there was a reply from America as well… something about
#11, btw, regarding WW2 – your welcome

something like that, very funny stuff I thought at the time… (Damn, now I will spend ages on the tubes trying to track it down)

The problem with the global warming issue is that each individual country benefits economically by letting others do the work. With the interest rates issue, each country hurts if it does not do it. No matter how much cooperation there is on economic issues, I just cannot see anything meaningful occurring on climate change until many animals are dead and many nations are screwed. Given the continued obsfucation by sceptics and the huge interest groups involved, politicians are just not going to risk their careers on something that is long-term.

And the polling makes me pull my hair out: people say that somebody should do something, but not them (at least not more than $10 a week).

As someone who is familiar with the upcoming environmental legislation, I can say that 2010 promises to be interesting times indeed.

469
jen Says:
October 10th, 2008 at 12:14 pm | Edit
Paddy- red’s video is geat.

Dead-set corker, jen. Just posted it at Crooks and Liars open thread # 62. Our dissident nothern bretheren need to know that they are not alone:)

Hey there Diogs-
Like you , I have always said that the fly in the ointment for me with Obi is his penchant for religion. (The other is his support – somewhat qualified though it may be- for the death penalty). But I also realise that no polly in the US would get a foot in the door without declaring that they were Doin’ it for Jesus, so who knows what he really thinks.

BlindOp, I can see the equity markets getting their goolies in a knot with the credit markets seized up, but I think it’s an over-reaction. Eventually the banks will have to stop sitting on cash, (or central banks will become the lenders of first resort! LOL), but either way, in some weeks and months it will start to move again. It’s not as if there isn’t a pile of money waiting to buy good quality assets, it’s just that no one is sure which assets are good quality and recession proof (ie will still be there in 12 months time). But the speculators will start placing their bets when the fear of total meltdown passes because all that dosh can’t lie idle forever.

90% down?

I seriously doubt it.

496 – jen

You would have thought Obama could have learnt from the Wright fiasco by dumping religion entirely 🙂

Interestingly and crazily enough, there were some stats for the US that showed whilst it may be hard for a woman or a black person to become president, it would be impossible for an atheist.

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