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The Big Trifecta

In geopolitical terms – the big trifecta is Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India (that’s the yellow, dark-yellow, and the grey band just to the right of Iran).

While the occasional geopolitical manoeuvres in the dark make for a great Bond movie, we have an obligation to dig a little deeper. First step on our adventure is to zoom in on the Afghan/Pakistan border where that orange band in the middle (see illustration below) is Taliban territory.

Things get more interesting when we throw in details of the ethnic, cultural, family, history, loyalty thing – and in the following map we should be cognisant of the fact that geopolitical boundaries don’t take centre stage (after all – the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan was nothing more than an arbitrary 19th century British colonial construct).

Just for reference – that big brown blob in the previous illustration is the Pashtun ethnic population. The following map drills down and identifies the principal regions at ground zero.

But lets zoom out again and factor into this equation that discussion about the relationship (and/or conflict) between Afghanistan and Pakistan that is of direct interest to their neighbour Iran (the big bugger over on the left). After all, Iran has many of the same tribal problems that face the fledgling Afghanistan administration (and an outbreak of secular testosterone in Afghanistan is a potential problem in the making for Iran). Let’s also take into account that big chunks of Afghanistan could be argued to be more properly part and parcel of Pakistan (which would go a long way towards explaining some of the accusations of Pakistan/Taliban loyalty). Equally, when we talk about Pakistan and India (the big bugger over on the right) there is the inevitable engagement of China (the really big bugger over on the far far right) as a player with more than a passing interest. And let’s not even get into the parallel universe of the Kashmir equation.

Thing is, a failed Afghanistan state creates stress for Pakistan and stress for Pakistan creates opportunity for India, an India/Pakistan conflict plays into the hands of China, and at the end of the day a bunch of nation states (US, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and Australia) just aren’t ready for that reality just yet. But what ties this all together is that none of the players want to see a united secular solution.

And for better or worse – what if this conflict may be our best hope for peace in our time? Why? Simply because an alignment of common interests between the principal players in this equation. That the simple thing of an alignment just may be a greater good than the atrocities that have and will be committed in the sustainment of this transient moment.

Recommended Reading

Agonizing over Afghanistan
David Shribman, 31 October, 2009

Pakistan is swiftly drifting towards an all out civil war
Abdus Sattar Ghazali, 28 October, 2009

613 Responses to “The Big Trifecta”

  1. 401
    Catrina says:

    HarryH at 400

    Puh-leaze

    :shock:

  2. 402
    HusseinStWorm says:

    CSIRO bid to gag emissions trading scheme policy attack

    THE nation’s peak science agency has tried to gag the publication of a paper by one of its senior environmental economists attacking the Rudd government’s climate change policies.

    The paper, by the CSIRO’s Clive Spash, argues the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme is an ineffective way to cut emissions, and instead direct legislation or a tax on carbon is needed.

    The paper was accepted for publication by the journal New Political Economy after being internationally peer-reviewed.

    But Dr Spash told the Australia New Zealand Society for Ecological Economics conference that the CSIRO had since June tried to block its publication.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26291548-601,00.html

  3. 403
    paddy says:

    396

    So, paddy, are you gunna box 5 in the Big Trifecta orwot? Anxious Ticsters of The Punt eagerly await your auguries. :)

    OK Ecky, Melbourne cup thoughts.

    I’m going with Tajodds and picking Viewed as the key.
    Then throwing in alcopop, shocking, roman emperor and waringah for a bit of value, plus Allez wonder. (Just in case the lovely Michelle Payne pulls off the ultimate fairytale and becomes the first woman jockey to win the cup.)

    BTW, I tend not to take trifectas in the cup, but blast away with box quinella’s.
    I’ll never get rich, but scoring the quinnie on the cup will normally pay for a damn fine dinner. :-)

    As usual it’s a bloody raffle and with the exception of viewed, I’m not at all confident.

    However, in race 4, acetip has picked a nice roughie. Tootsie, who’s probably worth an eachway bet and a quinella with the favourite Ortensia.
    For more detail on Tajodd’s musings, you can checkout his website here.
    http://tajodds.com/
    Happy punting ticsters. :-)

  4. 404
    paddy says:

    398
    Catrina

    While the tone of the following article pushes it towards the non-neutral category, I think there is some underlying truth to the argument the author makes concerning US interference in Honduras.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703399204574508141774783168.html

    Oooh you did that on purpose, didn’t you Cat?
    “non-neutral”???? Surely not! :lol:
    I looked up the author which led me to this.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xD0a1K830cc

    While I’m sure Zelaya is hardly as pure as the driven snow…..
    (I respect *your* opinions)

    When it comes to Mary Anastasia O’Grady’s opinions……… :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

  5. 405
    paddy says:

    I haven’t had a chance to watch this yet. But the buzz is pretty good.
    Jon Stewart doing the straight media’s job for them again.

    In this complete, unedited interview, Anna Baltzer and Mustafa Barghouti stand up for peace between Israelis and Palestinians.

    http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-october-28-2009/exclusive—anna-baltzer—mustafa-barghouti-extended-interview-pt–1

    http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-october-28-2009/exclusive—anna-baltzer—mustafa-barghouti-extended-interview-pt–2

  6. 406
    Catrina says:

    paddy at 404

    It’s a bitch – the only people who agree with my take on Honduras are far right lunies. Maybe I’m just politically confused? What I should be do is take a walk to the right, give Sarah a hug, and everything will get a lot simpler.

  7. 407

    paddy,
    Viewed got a dream rails run in the Caulfield; despite the extra weight this year he’s a dyed-in-the-wool stayer. Bit like Dorrie.
    Will slip Viewed into my traditional 5 box with Mourilyan, Roman Emperor, Basaltico and Shocking.
    And acting on information received…. shall have a flutter on the fourth.
    This, mon ami, is the sort of OIL responsible gamblers who put a little aside each week for their habit……. can’t get enough of!!
    I confess to being unashamedly one of these people.
    Such Oil lubricates the kick, numbing the judgement of otherwise thrifty short-term equine investors, releasing them to cavort by the precipice of speculative folly. :mrgreen:

    Show those bloody bagmen no mercy and enjoy the party. :)

  8. 408
    Catrina says:

    paddy at 405
    Just updated you comment with a link to part 1 as well.

  9. 409
    paddy says:

    406

    :lol: :lol: :lol:
    Cat.
    I’m sure it’s tough being the only sane conservative this side of the Panama Canal :-)
    The neonutters sure don’t do their case any favours by over-egging the pudding.

  10. 410

    Hussey at 402, heard the CSIRO censorship story on ABC radio at breakfast. Gives a keen sense about where the CSIRO’s priorities lie these days. Not so many years back they were a proud and independent scientific organisation.
    Overheard a couple of blokes crounched over their cuppas in a suspicious part of town who were muttering in between furtive sideways glances that the CSIRO were acting in the interests of the status quo.
    Musta been Cee Tees, aaayy!? :)

  11. 411
    HarryH says:

    Cat.
    I’m sure it’s tough being the only sane conservative this side of the Panama Canal

    Speaking of Panama. Mail is the Broker’s are checking out a nice piece of property for Mr Micheletti over there.

  12. 412
    HarryH says:

    Will slip Viewed into my traditional 5 box with Mourilyan, Roman Emperor, Basaltico and Shocking

    Ecky,…Mourilyan huh???…best of luck to his kindly owner Ramzan Kadyrov.

    Always knew you were a sucker for an ol warlord :laughing:

  13. 413
    Catrina says:

    HarryH at 411

    Speaking of Panama.

    Benefits of the dark side Harry.

    ;-)

  14. 414
    Chris B says:

    Chris Christie Rips Off Monty Python, Troupe Threatens Suit.
    continued on The Huffington Post including video….
    Read more at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/martin-lewis/chris-christie-rips-off-m_b_341598.html

    Chris Christie should now be expecting, “The Spanish Inquisition”

  15. 415
    gaffhook says:

    Wonder if pulling the rug from under the Blueheelers will stiffen their backbones a tad.

    Efforts to punish bluedog Democrats by witholding funding are working big-time. Not only are bloggers and progressives witholding support from Democrats who have spoken out against public option or single payer, but PACs are holding back.

    http://www.opednews.com/articles/Blue-Dogs-Fundraising-Plu-by-Rob-Kall-091101-403.html

  16. 416
    Chris B says:

    Psst. Hey guys, I think she has crossed to the dark side.

  17. 417
    Chris B says:

    I missed 413

  18. 418
    Chris B says:

    Snap!

  19. 419
    Enemy Combatant says:

    Harry, you bastard! Picked Mourilyan out fair and square without pausing to check who owned the well-credentialled steed and what the freakin’ owner did for a quid. Geez, dunno what to do now; morally flummoxed.

    http://www.stonebrookstudio.com/images/images_bar/stranger.gif

    How does a punter of good faith negotiable this moral minefield?

    Does the horse know his boss is a warlord?

    Should Hardcore Lefties on-course burn their winning totalizer tickets in protest?

    Would Vladimir Putin back Mourilyn at the generous odds on offer?

    Thanks a lot, Harry! :sad:

  20. 420
    HusseinStWorm says:

    EC, I think with Rudd it’s a case of no need for science when god is on his side.

  21. 421
    Chris B says:

    DVR, Once TV’s Mortal Foe, Helps Ratings.
    =============================

    In what may seem a media business version of the Stockholm syndrome, television network executives have fallen in love with a former tormentor: the digital video recorder.
    The reason is not simply that more households own DVRs — 33 percent compared with 28 percent at this point in 2008 — helping some marginal shows become hits. It is also that more people seem content to sit through the commercials than networks once thought.

    These factors combined mean DVR ratings now add significantly to live ratings and thus to ad revenue.

    “The DVR was going to kill television,” said Andy Donchin, director of media investment for the ad agency Carat. “It hasn’t.”

    Against almost every expectation, nearly half of all people watching delayed shows are still slouching on their couches watching messages about movies, cars and beer. According to Nielsen, 46 percent of viewers 18 to 49 years old for all four networks taken together are watching the commercials during playback, up slightly from last year. Why would people pass on the opportunity to skip through to the next chunk of program content?

    The most basic reason, according to Brad Adgate, the senior vice president for research at Horizon Media, a media buying firm, is that the behavior that has underpinned television since its invention still persists to a larger degree than expected.

    “It’s still a passive activity,” he said.

    continued in the New York Times. You may need to be registered.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/02/business/media/02ratings.html?_r=1
    ————————————————————————————
    This will have a huge effect on the 2010 election, when people sit through the replayed election advertisements. The Democrats have a much larger demographic watching the replayed adds. Especially in swing seats. This could account for another 2 senate seats and up to 10 liberal seats in the lower house. Taking back control of the house from the Blue Dogs.

  22. 422
    HarryH says:

    Everyone is equal on the racetrack Ecky lol

    Kings,Queens, Luminaries, Thieves and paupers all take off their nametags at the turnstile….or so the old saying goes.

    As a longtime punter and horse owner i’ve chatted and had a drink with people from Hawkie to Lloyd to crims of other differing vocations.

    Don’t let an ol war criminal deter ya from your choice. If Rattus owned it then maybe so…..

    Bet up

    Shocking
    Newport
    Viewed
    Alcopop
    Kibbutz

    for my Trifecta.

  23. 423
    gaffhook says:

    Roo and all his rich mates must be starting to poo their pants about their future as they get ready to sock it to Google, Huffpost etc about free agregation .
    Suck it up Roo

    The New York Times’ Coming Jihad Against The Huffington Post

    There has been a great deal of speculation about what the basis of a suit of The Huffington Post by The New York Times would look like in legal terms. First Amendment attorney David Marburger has said in widely circulated comments that the best legal leverage that the old media has is to get Congress to amend the Copyright Act to restore the common law as a way to fight unfair enrichment that aggregators get by utilizing content created by other media. Passing a law of that kind through Congress could take years, if it could be passed at all.

    http://www.opednews.com/populum/linkframe.php?linkid=100460

  24. 424
    paddy says:

    422
    Bloody hell HarryH.
    You’re a real killjoy. :-)
    As soon as I saw Ecky had picked Mourilyan….
    I started praying it would figure in the placings tomorrow.
    So that ……….*THEN*………. we could excoriate him for supporting a shameless dictator. :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

    It’s all in the timing!!! :lol:

  25. 425
    megan says:

    Loved your rant on previous page, Paddy! Enjoy your reasoning.
    And was heartened by the Jon Stewart clip but then read somewhere…BBC website…that Brutusina is weakening on the settlements issue.
    Can’t understand why the U.S. is so intimidated by Israel.

  26. 426

    As far as votes go, Hussey, there’s something in what you say.

    gaffy, maybe Obi has been brandishing his baseball bat at private White House luncheons. :devil:

    Harry, does it matter if Mourylin’s owner doesn’t profit a zac if I back his nag on the TAB? Mind you, didn’t back Jeune the year he won because I didn’t like the way trainer Gai Waterhouse treated her stable staff. But this bloke Kadyrov is allegedly here according to Rag Rupe to launder blood money.

    To invest or not to invest, that is the question.
    Solomon and Heraclitus, Gaita and Anderson…. enlighten my grasping, avaricious, provincial soul.

  27. 427
    megan says:

    What if I picked Mourilyn with my usual random ” eeney-meeney-miney-mo” selection….can I be forgiven?
    Will back up with other ticksters’ tips and even chance my first ‘box quinella’.

  28. 428
    HarryH says:

    424

    Paddy :lol:

    When i read it, it was too delicious to pass up.

  29. 429
    paddy says:

    425
    Ta Megan.

    Can’t understand why the U.S. is so intimidated by Israel.

    The Jewish political lobby in the US seems to be a fairly fearsome beast! Pollies of either persuasion defy it at their peril.
    That’s probably why it took a Jewish comedian like Jon Stewart to actually have a halfway rational discussion on the issue.
    But it says a lot about the state of US media, that that particular interview was considered “risky” and “daring”.
    I was actually a bit disappointed and would have preferred a bit more oomph. But I guess even the cable networks are terrified of offending their sponsors.

  30. 430
    Chris B says:

    What about Politic 101’s News aggregation?

  31. 431
    gaffhook says:

    Box trifecta is;

    Roman Emporer
    Shocking
    Allez Wonder

    Megan
    I thought Paddy was trying to emulate Cud Chewer over at Possums but then i realised he was having a solid barrier trial for his Virgin and the next post on Ticster 101 (how the Irishman slaughtered the Oz bookies at Flemington). :mrgreen:
    it was a good effort though.

  32. 432
    Chris B says:

    The Continuing Adventures of Jesus II and his fan club
    ==============================================
    This never gets discussed except amongst us filthy hippies, but look who’s in the gang propping up this cult-leading self-proclaimed messiah (they’re all very naughty boys):
    This month, the Reverend Sun Myung Moon went to Washington to introduce As a Peace-Loving Global Citizen, his autobiography that, according to the Moon-owned Washington Times, “recounts the joys and challenges, the teachable moments and the monumental experiences of his life – much of it spent as a spiritual leader”.

    The newspaper reported that Moon received “congratulatory greetings” from Senator Joe Lieberman, former secretary of state Alexander Haig and former president George H W Bush, “hand-delivered by his son Neil Bush”.

    How many questions has Obama had about Jeremiah Wright (let alone any black person with an opinion)?

    Yet, nobody in the media ever asks someone like Joe Lieberman why he, as an orthodox Jew, kisses the ass of a man who says he’s the new Jesus?
    ———————————————————————————
    http://firedoglake.com
    :twisted:

  33. 433
    Chris B says:

    Barack Obama has kept America safe fifty-two days longer than George W Bush did, as of today, 11/01/09.
    http://firedoglake.com

  34. 434

    megan, it’s all too cruel. Those pair of larrikins are worse than Ginger Megs and Bluey Maloney on cracker night.
    Havn’t been this devastated since the day I jerried that Judith Miller wasn’t just a reporter, she was also a world’s best practise stenographer. Didn’t sleep for days.

    The Cup runs on the morrow yet tonight my soul is rent; it calls out for rest, but the end is not in sight.

  35. 435
    paddy says:

    426
    Ecky, Bob Brown will probably never forgive you for giving “comfort to the enemy”. But we will. :lol:
    http://www.racingandsports.com.au/racing/rsNewsArt.asp?NID=160420
    Seriously though…If the beast *should* get up and win tomorrow.
    Then the shamed and blushing faces of the VRC committee members, will rival that fateful day, when the ultimate cur of a Kerr made his immortal drunken performance.
    When it comes to punting….the rule is, back what you like and then boo like hell if you don’t like the winner’s connections or the presenter.
    I still remember the howls of outrage that always accompanied Jeff Kennett’s insistence on presenting the Cox plate.
    So…Fuck the dictator and fuck Jeff Kennett for old time’s sake as well. :-)

  36. 436
    Chris B says:

    At last, I’ve got a Google PR. It’s 2/10. (That’s not bad for a start). The best my top opposition has is 4/10. Better keep workin’ at it!

  37. 437
    Chris B says:

    Russia’s three all-female air regiments flew more than 30,000 missions along the Eastern Front in WWII.
    At home they were known as Stalin’s Falcons, but terrified German troops called them the Night Witches.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/8329676.stm
    —————————————————————————————-
    First I have heard of them. I knew the Russians had front line soldiers, but not pilots. Although it shouldn’t have surprised me. It appears Russia lead the women’s liberation movement.

  38. 438

    OK then, gang, in view of the festiveness of the occasion and proffered punting folklore, will stick with my original selections. If Mourilyn bobs up in the placegetters, my consciece will be slaked with a cheque to an Oz Chechen community centre. Think I’ll slip ‘em a fist full of Oxfords anyhow!
    Bleedin’ broadband’s on the blink again but should be able to find a comm. centre here when cyber-streamlining returns.
    abc.gov.au/news/tag/human-rights/

    And have a corker of Cup Day, Ticsters. Onya Melbourne, bewdy Australia!

  39. 439
    Chris B says:

    Dede Scozzafava’s exit from a New York House race is just the latest example of the new Republican Party’s hostility to pro-choice women. Linda Hirshman on why Sarah Palin is a club of one.
    ———————————————————————————–

    Former Republican congressional candidate Dede Scozzafava cried real tears Saturday as she conceded the right-wingers had pushed her out of her race. Even though her local party had picked her to run in Tuesday’s election for the upstate New York seat vacated by the new secretary of the Army, John McHugh, her support for abortion and gay marriage made her too liberal for the new national party. Insurgent Republicans, led by Sarah Palin and Glenn Beck, mounted a candidate on the conservative line, and fought Scozzafava so effectively that she turned tail and ran. She then endorsed the Democrat.

    The transformation of the Republican Party by the rise of conservative, evangelical, and Southern movements disables the Republicans from grooming a new generation of female candidates.

    continued on The Daily Beast

  40. 440
    Chris B says:

    439 with a bit of luck they will drive women from the party.

  41. 441
    Enemy Combatant says:

    Not ready to make democracy:

    Afghan Runoff Election Canceled, Commission Says, Karzai Declared Victor

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/02/afghan-runoff-election-ca_n_341882.html

    Be interesting to see how these developments influence Situation Room “surge” discussions.

  42. 442
    Catrina says:

    Enemy Combatant at 441

    Be interesting to see how these developments influence Situation Room “surge” discussions.

    Initial indicators are that Obama will downplay this – focussing on one hand on the observance of the rule-of-law and the constitution, while calling for serious efforts on the reduction of corruption and development of governance institutions.

    Here is a NYT report on the subject.

    Mr. Obama placed a congratulatory call and, he said in the Oval Office, urged Mr. Karzai “to write a new chapter” in the legitimacy of his government. Mr. Obama said he noted that the election had been “messy,” but said that the United States accepted the decision because it was “determined by Afghan law.”

    “But I emphasized that this has to be a point in time in which we begin to write a new chapter based on improved governance, a much more serious effort to eradicate corruption, joint efforts to accelerate the training of Afghan security forces, so that the Afghan people can provide for their own security,” the president said.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/03/world/asia/03afghan.html?_r=1&ref=world

  43. 443
    gaffhook says:

    My second box trifecta

    Viewed
    Shocking
    Allez Wonder

  44. 444
  45. 445
    paddy says:

    Well Ecky and Megan…You’ll be glad to know that Firstdog is riding Mourilyan in today’s cup. :mrgreen: :evil:

    http://media.crikey.com.au/Media/images/091103-MelbourneCup09-66da72f7-ae2e-4be5-9c86-88cddc5e4e7c.jpg

    444
    That was a double-bunger Harry.
    Hils and Mary both going off together. :lol:

  46. 446
    HarryH says:

    That was a double-bunger Harry.
    Hils and Mary both going off together.

    Definately lol

  47. 447
    HarryH says:

    Oh my…what an omen trifecta.

    Shocking Crime Scene……Chechan horse.

  48. 448
    paddy says:

    Thank God I had a saver on Shocking and didn’t back the Chechen.
    I can now afford a wee drinkie and don’t have to feel guilty.

    Thank God Mourilyan didn’t win!!! I don’t think the GG would have felt too comfortable handing over the cup to those “shonky connections”.

  49. 449
    gaffhook says:

    Good to se the georgous Olivia Neutron-bomb rattling the tonsils today.
    And a Shocking result for this dumb ticster punter.

  50. 450
    megan says:

    ….and to think that ethics niggled and so deleted that flaming Chechan horse….!!

  51. 451
    Katielou says:

    Very funny satirical video from The Onion, entitled “Victim in Fatal Car Accident Tragically not Glenn Beck”.
    http://www.bobcesca.com/blog-archives/2009/11/accident_victim.html

  52. 452
    paddy says:

    451
    :lol:
    Beautiful KL

  53. 453
    gaffhook says:

    447
    HarryH

    Why didn’t you post that before the race. We would all be $9k better off.

  54. 454
    Chris B says:

    451 Brilliant KL. Tears running down my face.

  55. 455
    gaffhook says:

    How sweet it is.
    McCains healthcare advisor during his campaign is now bleating and could himself be running out of health care insurance coverage.

    McCain Economist: GOP Will Lose Without Alternative Health Care Bill

    The one-time McCain economist was thrust back into the throes of the health care debate earlier on Monday morning after the Washington Post published a piece revealing that he himself is running out of extensions on his employer-based health insurance and, because of a pre-existing condition, faces the possibility of exorbitant costs for an individual plan.

    Read more at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/02/mccain-economist-gop-will_n_342324.html

  56. 456
    megan says:

    Poor Christopher Hitchens is not amused by Jon Stewart.
    http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200910/satire#

  57. 457
    Katielou says:

    Geez, I couldn’t even finish reading that Hitchens crap. The whole tone of his diatribe is that of some desperately envious pratt. It seems pretty clear he cannot stand that some comedians are capable of influence. Somehow comedy is not a sufficiently worthy pursuit. Whatever. Take another swig Christopher.

  58. 458
    paddy says:

    456
    megan
    :lol:
    Goodness me! I think young Christopher has a secret dream to be a successful comic when he grows up.
    Meanwhile….He seems mighty pissed off that others get more laughs than he does.
    Judging by that particular diatribe, I guess there was more sour than whiskey in his glass. :mrgreen:

  59. 459
    paddy says:

    Shoe….denfreude?? :mrgreen:
    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/shoe-thrower-attacks-john-howard/story-e6freuy9-1225794050809

    POLICE in England are questioning a student after he hurled a work boot at the head of former Prime Minister John Howard during a speech at Cambridge University.

    It’s a sad reflection on the declining standards of Britain’s elite universities, when they would even let a wanker like Howard enter the grounds…… Much less address the students. :evil:

  60. 460
    gaffhook says:

    457
    Katielou
    I was racking my brain (what’s left of it) as to how to say exactly what you say.
    Thanks, me too.

  61. 461
    gaffhook says:

    459
    Paddy and the shoe thrower needs to come back home and spend two years at the cricket academy.
    The wanker could not even throw it hard enough so that bloke could not catch it before it reached its objective.
    Very poor form.
    He may have grown up in Lexies Mayo under 12vs

  62. 462
    gaffhook says:

    Here you are Christopher, you poor soul.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kqyIwZpr5y0

  63. 463
    Chris B says:

    A big debate of how Obama is going at the moment. I can see both sides of the story. I would like him to be more assertive/take a leading role. Although I can also see he has got a lot done and is in a very strong position. There may be a strategy in what he is doing. It will not affect the out come of the next election. The nearest comparison that I can give to his style. Steve Bracks. We know what happened in his second election.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com

  64. 464
    Katielou says:

    Chris B @ 463

    Bob Cesca, who writes on Huffington Post, has commented on his own blog about Obama’s curse of ‘not good enough’. Worth a read.
    http://www.bobcesca.com/blog-archives/2009/11/the_curse_of_no.html

  65. 465
    Chris B says:

    Thanks Katielou. My opinion is, in order to get more things done. Is to get more liberals elected. What hasn’t been noted is that liberals were very slow to get organised and get a leader.

  66. 466
    Chris B says:

    Turning Ugly In NY-23: Teabagger Voter Intimidation Reported.
    I just got off the phone with former state Democratic Chairwoman June O’Neill, who informed me the police had been called to at least two polling sites in St. Lawrence County due to overzealous electioneering (O’Neill called it “voter intimidation”) by Doug Hoffman supporters.

    “We’ve gotten reports that people are standing there, covered with Hoffman stickers and yelling anti-choice stuff at voters,” said O’Neill, a St. Lawrence native who has been running the party’s GOTV effort for Bill Owens in NY-23.

    “Apparently, there’s some woman claiming to be a commissioner,” O’Neill continued. “Commissioner of what, I don’t know. She’s from Texas, I think, and she won’t leave.”

    “This is not the way we roll in the North Country.”‘

    O’Neill also said she had received anecdotal reports of problems at polling sites in Gouverneur, which is Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava’s hometown. But she couldn’t immediately confirm this.

    http://news.firedoglake.com/2009/11/03/turning-ugly-in-ny-23-voter-intimidation-reported/

  67. 467
    Chris B says:

    Teabagger World Domination Plan Set – Charlie Crist, Look Out.

    There’s going to be a lot of talk about winners and losers in the media this week after today’s elections. Before knowing the outcome, I think it’s clear who one loser is – Florida Governor Charlie Crist. The success of the conservative movement in driving out a moderate Republican in NY-23 will embolden that same crowd, and Crist appears at the top of every hit list. He is facing conservative Marco Rubio in Florida’s Senate election, and Crist’s past support of the stimulus package in particular makes him an inviting target. Also, Rubio actually has some decent fundraising numbers and a campaign operation at this early stage, along with credibility among the teabaggers.

    But if Crist does get tripped up in the primary, parochial factors are probably more to blame. A new poll in Florida shows Crist with an all-time low 42% approval rating. The fact is that it’s just a bad time to be a governor, especially in a state deep into recession like Florida, where the housing bubble has exploded and unemployment is on the rise. This is the factor behind Jon Corzine’s deadlocked race in New Jersey – there’s an anti-incumbent and especially an anti-gubernatorial incumbent mood out there.

    Crist would be the highest-profile name to go down to defeat if Rubio does win the primary next year. And already, conservatives wanting to please the base are taking sides. This amusing story is just the beginning of the war inside the GOP:

    continued on Firedoglake

  68. 468
    Chris B says:

    NY-23rd: The Failure Of Blue Dogging.

    The biggest overlooked aspect of the NY-23rd special congressional election is Democratic candidate Bill Owens. NY-23 is a Republican-leaning district but not overwhelmingly so. George W. Bush just barely beat Al Gore in 2000 (49%-47%), and in 2008 Obama easily carried the district (52%-47%). It is a reddish district but not deep red.

    Bill Owens is a conservative Democrat. He is arguably more conservative than the official Republican candidate was (Dede Scozzafava dropped out over the weekend). For example, his opposition to the public option puts him not only far to the right of the bulk of the Democratic party, but significantly to the right of the majority of Americans. He was selected because he fit the Rahm Emanuel philosophy that the only way for Democrats to win right-leaning districts is with conservative Democratic candidates.

    continued on Firedoglake

  69. 469
    Chris B says:

    BREAKING: Chris Christie Declared Victor in New Jersey.
    http://firedoglake.com
    That will probably give the Repugs 3 out of 3. They have won Virginia and will probably win NY 23.

  70. 470
    Chris B says:

    That will give the Repugs a new lease of life. They think they will win 2010 and win the presidency in 2012.

  71. 471
    Chris B says:

    Armey Meets With Author Of Town Hall Harassment Strategy Memo To Plan Purge Of Moderates From GOP
    http://thinkprogress.org/2009/11/03/armey-disruption-memo/

  72. 472
    Chris B says:

    What if the worst possible situation arises in 2014 and the Democrats lose? With all moderates gone and only right wingnuts in charge? THAT is a horrendous proposition! No, I don’t think it will. But it is not impossible.

  73. 473
    Chris B says:

    472 I should have emphasised HORRENDOUS!

  74. 474
    Chris B says:

    NY-23 Watch
    The early returns show Bill Owens (D) with a decent lead over Doug Hoffman (C). A win for Democrats in this race would go a long way toward changing the storyline from tonight.
    http://politicalwire.com

  75. 475
    Chris B says:

    The Democrats have picked up Charlotte Mayor.

  76. 476
    Chris B says:

    Scoreboard here.
    http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com
    Maine
    Pro gay initiative is up by 264 votes with 38% counted. If it is like Australia and small rural booths come in first, this may be a very good sign.

  77. 477
    HarryH says:

    Chris

    My quick summation of the elections tonight:

    Virginia:

    will always remain a Republican state unless the black vote turns out in mass. It didn’t for Creigh Deeds.

    No surprise here.

    New Jersey:

    Corzine was seen as significantly corrupt and too close to the hated big banks.

    No surprise here.

    New York 23:

    Far right wingnut gets defeated in a district that has been Republican for 100 years by a BlueDog who is more Republican than the original Republican candidate.

    No surprise here.

    New York Mayor:

    Bloomberg buys another term with 100 million dollar campaign.

    No surprise here.

  78. 478
    Chris B says:

    Klaus signature completes EU treaty ratification.

    Czech President Vaclav Klaus has finally signed the Lisbon Treaty, ending a highly drawn out ratification process that left many wondering whether the document’s provisions would ever see the light of day.

    “I signed the Lisbon Treaty today at 15.00 (CET),” Klaus told reporters on Tuesday (3 November).

    http://euobserver.com/9/28932
    Yes!

  79. 479
    Chris B says:

    Uproar in Italy after Euro court rejects school crucifixes.
    ———————————————————————-

    The European Court of Human Rights ruled Tuesday that Italy violates education and religious freedoms by displaying crucifixes in classrooms, prompting anger in the fiercely Catholic country.

    Ruling on a case brought by an Italian mother, the court found that the right of parents to educate their children according to their own beliefs was being breached.

    Displaying crucifixes also violated childrens’ right to freedom of religion, the court said.

    The Italian bishops’ conference denounced the court as “partial and ideological,” saying the crucifix “is not just a religious symbol but also a sign of cultural belonging.”

    Education Minister Mariastella Gelmini said the cross was part of Italian tradition.

    “No one, and certainly not an ideological European court, will succeed in erasing our identity,” Gelmini was quoted as saying by the ANSA news agency.

    “The presence of the crucifix in classrooms is not a sign of belief in Catholicism, rather it is a symbol of our tradition,” she said.

    But the European rights court said Tuesday the display of crucifixes “could reasonably be associated with Catholicism.”

    The Italian foreign minister said the government would appeal against the ruling.

    Alessandra Mussolini, granddaughter of the Italian dictator, said the ruling aimed to “wipe out our Christian routes”.

    continued on EU Business.
    http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/europe-rights-trial.19x

  80. 480
    Catrina says:

    Chris B at 478

    I signed the Lisbon Treaty today at 15.00 (CET)

    That is the main event for this week.

  81. 481
    Chris B says:

    479 That’s a big blow for freedom.

  82. 482
    Chris B says:

    480 It certainly is a big one.

  83. 483
    Chris B says:

    It looks like I’m the only Europhile around here.

  84. 484
    Chris B says:

    Just look at the way Rupert Murdoch and the Sun squawk over the Lisbon treaty. It must be good.
    —————————————————————-
    Britain betrayed as hated EU treaty becomes law.
    ===================================
    THE last hope of blocking a new European constitution was snuffed out last night – the final kick in the teeth after Labour’s betrayal of Britain.

    The Czech Republic became the last EU nation to sign the Lisbon Treaty, which will now become law.

    Gordon Brown’s Labour broke a promise to give 60million Britons a say on it.

    Now it’s too late as we are dragged screaming into a vastly more powerful European Union yesterday.

    The last remaining opposition to the new EU constitution ended when Czech president Vaclav Klaus was forced to sign the Lisbon Treaty.

    His reluctant endorsement meant the document has been ratified by all 27 EU states and will become as good as LAW on December 1.

    Gordon Brown – a key element of a Labour Government that reneged on its promise to hold a referendum on the treaty – hailed the move as “an important and historic step for all of Europe”.

    Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article2712808.ece#ixzz0VreYl8Qn

  85. 485
    Chris B says:

    Breaking News
    ===========
    AC/DC replaces The Wiggles as highest-earning local entertainers
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26304412-601,00.html :)

  86. 486
    Katielou says:

    HarryH @ 477

    I think the NY 23 win for the Dems (assuming the numbers continue to hold as they are) is a big deal. Democrats haven’t won that race since the Civil War.

  87. 487
    Chris B says:

    Community TV relief on digital switch.
    ==========================

    Adelaide’s community television station says it has been saved by an announcement of access to the digital spectrum for Australian community stations.

    The Federal Government says a digital pathway will be provided for community stations in most capital cities.

    There will be more than $2.5 million provided to help stations make the transition.

    continued on ABC News
    The goes the Fair Go Kev sign from the community stations logo’s.

  88. 488
    Chris B says:

    477 Spot on HarryH. No big deal. But that’s not the way the Repugs and Fox will play it. The Repugs thought everything was fine when Bobby Jindal won Loiusanna. The world was turning. The Repugs will be back in 2006! Not!

  89. 489
    HarryH says:

    485

    Yeah KatieLou, i agree historically it is a big deal…i mentioned they haven’t won it for 100 years. But taking into consideration the specifics of this race , i don’t think the result is a surprise.

    The RNCC nominated a candidate that would win as usual.
    The wingnuts then imposed a wingnut.
    The original candidate then endorsed the Democrat.
    The Democrat is a Blue Bluedog. He is said to be more Republican than the original Republican.

    To me….the 4 main results tonight were pretty predictable.

  90. 490
    Catrina says:

    HarryH at 489

    To me….the 4 main results tonight were pretty predictable.

    I figure this is the most interesting event of the lot in terms of the election results. On one hand we have the Palin Factor and the far right sucking the wind out of the sails of the selection committee – but the success will leave a bitter taste in the mouths of a lot of conservatives. What will be interesting to watch is the way this plays out in the media. I’m guessing the Fox etc. will play the referendum on Obama (but I doubt this will have any impact), while the left will play the disintegration-of-the-GOP card (and I’m hoping this angle gets attention because at the end of the day the GOP needs to get its house together and the worst case scenario is that they do it with a far right base).

  91. 491
    Catrina says:

    Huffington Post presenting a series of images dealing with evictions of Palestinians from homes in Jerusalem by Israeli settlers.

    Palestinian women react as they stand outside a disputed house in the east Jerusalem neighborhood of Sheik Jarrah, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2009. Jewish settlers claiming ownership forced their way into a disputed house in east Jerusalem on Tuesday, using hired guards to evict an elderly Palestinian woman and tossing the belongings of the 29 other residents into the rain, witnesses said.

    Not a good look for the Israeli Government.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/03/jewish-settlers-force-way_n_343992.html

  92. 492
    Chris B says:

    490 Catrina “They need to get there house in order” But not too soon. I want the Democrats to have a good shot at doing a good job. Before lots of pressure comes on.

  93. 493
    Chris B says:

    Gay marriage referendum defeated 47% to 53% in Maine.

  94. 494
    Catrina says:

    For all you connoisseurs out there – this picture does not do the Prague Castle justice. If you step outside those doors your notions of fantasy versus reality will take a seriously and irreversible jolt.

    The New York Times has a report on the Treaty of Lisbon, signed in said castle.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/04/world/europe/04europe.html

  95. 495
    paddy says:

    494
    FFS Catrina,!! What are those bastards doing in my dining room?
    I’ve got guests coming for dinner in an hour.
    They can sign their bloody treaties in the outhouse like all the other freeloaders and take those bloody photographers with them!!

    The nerve of some people. :evil:

  96. 496
  97. 497
    paddy says:

    493

    Gay marriage referendum defeated 47% to 53% in Maine.

    Sheesh! C.B.
    Americans and gay rights is as depressing as K.Rudd and asylum seekers. :-(
    I guess electing a black president has used up all their “liberal” juice for this century.

  98. 498
    Catrina says:

    paddy at 495

    FFS Catrina,!! What are those bastards doing in my dining room?

    Don’t worry paddy – I’ve just moved them to the cellar.

  99. 499
    paddy says:

    498
    Thanks Cat. I just hope they turn off the lights when they leave. :mrgreen:

    Also on our American cousins.
    Nate Silver does his usual quick summary and take on the results.
    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/what-happened-and-why.html

  100. 500
    Wakefield says:

    493 Chris B – anti gay rights referendum carried.