Feed on
Posts
Comments

This article, http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/08/obamas_big_7.html, caught my attention. While I realise that Obama and the Democrats have money to burn at this point, all the evidence to date indicates that this is going to be a much tighter election than many previously believed. On current polling, if McCain can hold Virginia then he needs Michigan and one other state (Indiana the likely one) in order to pull of a surprise victory.

As such, Obama spending money in North Dakota, North Carolina, Montana, Georgia, and Alaska seems a little bit of a waste. After all, even if we assume that he wins in North Dakota and Montana say, those six electoral votes will not get him the presidency. North Carolina is obviously a better place to attack, given its 15 electoral votes. But it would be a big ask for Obama to win North Carolina.

Instead, it would be far more useful to simply concentrate on Michigan, Indiana, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio. (I discount Florida, as the polls are going back to McCain there – I even tend to discount Indiana, but given that the polls tell us that it is close, and I go by the polls).  It is in those states that this election will be won or lost. The others are effectively irrelevant.

As such, I think that Obama is wasting time and money in those states. There are 90 days to go in this election campaign and at this point in time the momentum – according to the polls – is with McCain. Time to get back to political reality. A fifty-state strategy might be a nice little dream, but that is all it ever was. A five-state strategy is what is needed to win this thing.

651 Responses to “Is Obama wasting time and money?”

  1. 601
    megan says:

    A dirty little war

    The arm-wresting for global supremacy continues and Putin is not short of shrewd tactics.

  2. 602
    Andrew says:

    cnn poll of polls back out to 47/41

  3. 603
    megan says:

    Ecky@ 599,

    Yep, surely they will see it as an insult to the average punter ?

    Mind you,having read of the visceral ‘dislike’ some people have towards Obama, rationality doesn’t always rule!

  4. 604
    Andrew says:

    interesting piece by huff on mccains lead on iraq and national security (Rasmussen has McCain with a 51 percent to 39 percent lead on Iraq, and a 52 to 40 lead on national security. Time shows McCain leading on Iraq 51 percent to 36 percent, and on the war on terror 56 to 29) how its McCains best chance of victory, and how Obama should be doing more to counteract it. I agree.

    Also interesting is the suggestion that McCain’s attack on Obama’s popularity/ celebrity is working

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arianna-huffington/obamas-vacation-assignmen_b_118253.html

  5. 605
    jen says:

    megan-
    I was just thinking the same thing re the vitreolic hatred of Obama – especially to see it so repeatedly expressed on an Australian blog site really leaves me puzzled .He is a moderate politically, but no candidate that wanted to get elected in the US could be anything but in fact, and like Rudd I would hope that once elected he would have more room to implement policies that reflect his consistently expressed values that are progressive at the core.
    Perhaps this is ongoing resentment that Hillary didn’t win, but that doesn’t make sense as she is more conservative than Obama and reflects the paradigm that has existed in US politics for decades and brought it to where it is today: in the sewer; or perhaps there is a genuine belief that the man is a liar and not what he says. None of which has any evidence to back it up.
    So if he is in fact what he appears to be and means what he consistently states ( and how else can he express his views other than to speak them – but then he is an empty orator!) why the hell wouldn’t you want to see this man as POTUS instead iof the morons and despots we’ve had.
    Buggered if I can understand it.
    Unless it is as the raw prawn person said- because he’s black. :sad:

  6. 606
    Catrina says:

    jen at 605

    Unless it is as the raw prawn person said- because he’s black.

    But the primaries contradict this assumption. If America is so racist as some would have us believe, how is it the Obama won the primary?

  7. 607
    jen says:

    Catrina-
    I’m talking about the people who are part of the ABO movement – they are not Repugs and yet they are so anti-Obama that it defies rationality. There are a couple of them that we know quite well, and I really can’t understand the level of antipathy towards Obi in otherwise “left” leaning thinkers. Of course from Repugs you would expect it, although even many of them seem to be prepared to acknowledge that Obama is a talented man (Powell for one), so it is the Dem supporters that hate him so vehemently that I am at a loss to understand… and the options that I come up with aren’t too pleasant.

  8. 608
    David Gould says:

    Whatever people might think, based on the numbers, Obama has not had a good three weeks. On electoral-vote, he is sitting on 275 EVs – a victory, sure, but by a very narrow margin. On every other site, from RCP to electoralprojections, he has slipped below 300. And on fivethirtyeight, the Obama slide is pretty obvious in the tracking. And the Intrade percentage, while not yet dipping below 60, has come very, very close.

    And some key states (states which I had in the Obama column) have tightened – Nevada, Colorado and Minnesota.

    And what has Obama gained for his 10 million spend outside the key states? One Alaskan poll, run by a Democratic polling organisation, putting him ahead by three.

    Not a good return, as I am sure all here will admit.

    To those talking about the huge money advantage Obama has, I agree that that is excellent. The time is coming, though – indeed, the time is past – for Obama to spend it in the right places.

    I should state here that I think the conventions will likely make it very difficult to analyse what is happening for the next little while, as there should be bounces for both sides of varying degrees. I like the fivethirtyeight analysis, though.

  9. 609
    Catrina says:

    Gallup Daily: Obama 45%, McCain 44%

    PRINCETON, NJ — Barack Obama is now favored by 45% of national registered voters and John McCain by 44%, essentially maintaining the tie at 44% reported in Friday’s Gallup Poll Daily tracking report.

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/109633/Gallup-Daily-Obama-45-McCain-44.aspx

  10. 610
    jen says:

    Obi better get off that surf board and get back to work!

  11. 611
    Catrina says:

    jen at 610

    He has already – earlier today was a faith debate between Obama and McCain.

  12. 612
    David Gould says:

    Re some people’s visceral dislike of Obama, I have witnessed as much viteriol directed at Hillary. I understand neither perspective.

  13. 613
    jen says:

    phew Catrina- now I can go on my holiday knowing he’s back in the driver’s seat!
    RE the faith debate – i am favouring neither as it’s a load of old codswallop IMHO.
    They should be talking about the Georgian situation, imminent global environmental catastrophe, the economic crash etc etc.
    instead they are going to try and convince a pack of religious believers which one prays the hardest.
    Only in America (or Tehran…)

  14. 614
    Catrina says:

    jen at 613

    I agree – but things played out in the debate as they have for most of the campaign. For example – when both candidates are asked about “evil” – McCain says it must be “defeated”. Obama says it must be “confronted” and adds the information that even sometimes the things we do in the name of good are in themselves evil. I.e. Obama will appeal to the more educated demographic. McCain will appeal to the good old boys.

  15. 615
    jen says:

    True David- but as someone who went from supporting Hillary to being completely disappointed in her – she conducted herself and her campaign in a manner which earned a loss of respect , whereas I don’t think Obi has done any such thing.
    And irrespective, If Hillary had won even though it would be disappointing as an Obama supporter, I would still prefer her to any republican by the proverbial country mile.

  16. 616
  17. 617
    Catrina says:

    Chris at 586

    McCain raised $27 million last month, the fifth consecutive month in which contributions have increased, campaign manager Rick Davis said in a morning conference call.

    Obama Campaign Raises Over $51 Million In July

    :-)

  18. 618
    Catrina says:

    More on Georgia.

    Senator Joe Biden announced that he’ll be visiting Georgia, but unlike the Joe Lieberman and Lindsey Graham shoot from the hip initiative of John McCain, Joe Biden is going at the request of Georgia’s President.

    http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/08/joe_biden_to_visit_georgia_thi.php

  19. 619
  20. 620
    Catrina says:

    EC at 619

    Ouch …!

  21. 621
    Enemy Combatant says:

    Might have to grin and bear it, Cat:)

    But they’re not all bad.

    http://blog.regalbear.com/wp-content/uploads/2006/02/happy_bear.jpg

  22. 622
    Enemy Combatant says:

    “600 Andrew
    EC @ 599 the hypocrisy is breathtaking yet the msm swallow it hook line and sinker”

    Indeed, Andrew, taking into account who pays the MSM piper, they just might be part of the problem.

    “603 megan
    Ecky@ 599,

    Yep, surely they(MSM)will see it as an insult to the average punter ?”

    megan, reckon they’ve been playing the punters for mugs for years, with a few honourable exceptions like Keith Olbermann. But MSNBC keep him on because he rates well(better than O’Reilly now) and sells a lot of soap, so corporate sponsors tolerate the Big O’s humanitarian/liberal/progressive/leftist bias.

    Fox is as “fair and balanced” as Goebbels was.

  23. 623
    Enemy Combatant says:

    The MSM’s lovliness just goes on and on……

    http://www.salon.com/comics/tomo/2008/08/12/tomo/

  24. 624
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    619 Enemy Combatant

    The Unbearable fightingness of Beariness, and so chic, in one act, on the mall.

    Where’s the next one in that sequence, Ecky? I can see it clearly, with Putin and his Russian mate whispering to each other, quite brazenly in front of George Bush: “When is he going to understand I meant ‘Georgia’s capital is safe from us’ and NOT that ‘George’s Capital is safe from us’? Don’t they require basic education any more? Ah, the power of capitalism, eh Dimtry?”

  25. 625
    Enemy Combatant says:

    “Where’s the next one in that sequence, Ecky?”

    Well, Kirri, reckon after a feed like that, if the bear has been brought up right, it’ll be moseyin’ on into the woods ’bout now. That is if the pope is still a catholic.
    ——————————————

    The Candidates: Hope V Hate

    As Campaign 2008 unfolds, it is increasingly clear that the Republicans are a party with little left but hate, anger and the politics of slandering their opponent.
    John McCain has become a candidate reduced to doing a Karl Rove imitation as a sleazy, divisive campaigner, while making bellicose pronouncements about war reminiscent of the childish Confederates at the beginning of “Gone With the Wind,” drinking their brandy and smoking their cigars with fantasies about the glorious war that they hunger to fight.
    http://consortiumnews.com/2008/081608a.html

    (Lemme just check something here. Yep, my poetic license is current)

    The horrible thing about the Two Minutes Hate was not that one was obliged to act a part, but that it was impossible to avoid joining in. Within thirty seconds any pretense was always unnecessary. A hideous ecstasy of fear and vindictiveness, a desire to kill, to torture, to smash faces in with a sledge hammer, seemed to flow through the whole group of people like an electric current, turning one even against one’s will into a grimacing, screaming lunatic. And yet the rage that one felt was an abstract, undirected emotion which could be switched from one object to another like the flame of a blowlamp. (1984, George Orwell)

    Atreyu:
    Who are you?
    G’mork:
    I am G’mork. And you, whoever you are, can have the honor of being my last victim.
    Atreyu:
    I will not die easily. I am a warrior.
    G’mork:
    (G’mork laughs.) Brave warrior, then fight the nothing.
    Atreyu:
    But I can’t ! I can’t get beyond the boundaries of Fantasia.
    G’mork laughs and Atreyu grows angry.
    Atreyu:
    What’s so funny about that ?
    G’mork:
    Fantasia has no boundaries.
    A storm grows closer to the city, slowly shaking it to pieces… Rocks fall here and there.
    Atreyu:
    That’s not true. You’re lying.
    G’mork:
    Foolish boy. Don’t you know anything about Fantasia? It’s the world of human fantasy. Every part ,every creature of it, is a piece of the dreams and hopes of mankind. Therefore, it has no boundaries.
    There’s a crash and more rocks fall.
    Atreyu:
    But why is Fantasia dying then ?
    G’mork:
    Because people have begun to loose their hopes and forget their dreams. So the nothing grows stronger.
    Atreyu:
    What is the nothing ?!
    G’mork:
    It’s the emptiness that’s left. It’s like a despair, destroying this world. And I have been trying to help it.
    Atreyu:
    But why ?
    G’mork:
    Because people who have no hopes are easy to control. And whoever has control has the power.

    From the screenplay of “The Never Ending Story”

  26. 626
    Chris B says:

    Candidates Announce July Fundraising Numbers

    Barack Obama raised $51 milliion in July and had $66 million cash on hand at the end of July. John McCain took in $27 million in July and had $21 million in the bank at the start of August. McCain’s burn rate is much higher than his fundraising rate because he is required by law to spend all the money he raised for the primary during the primary season (which ends the day he becomes the official candidate, Sept. 4). At that point he gets about $85 million from the government, because he has elected to accept public financing.

    http://www.electoral-vote.com

  27. 627
  28. 628
  29. 629
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    With a wry grin he replies: “Don’t misunderestimate the power of capitalism, and by the way, its Dmitry!

    That comes from misunderestimating the power of Spell-Check” and with that Dmitry dropped the remains of the Caucusas, or what was left of it, and invited Vlad and the KGB for some Georgian folk dancing…yes, of course, without chains Vlad!

    He’s getting so cynical lately.

  30. 630
    Chris B says:

    Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama raised more than $51 million in July and the Democratic National Committee reported $27.7 million in donations last month.

    Obama began August with $65.8 million on hand and the DNC had $28.5 million available, according to statements released Saturday. His July total was slightly less than the $52 million he raised in June but still eye-popping because he was off the fundraising circuit at home during his trip to the Middle East and Europe.

    Obama’s Internet-powered fundraising efforts have shattered all previous records for a presidential campaign, bringing in a total of $390 million so far. The Illinois senator has announced he will forgo public financing for the general election, giving up $84 million in taxpayer dollars for the final two months of the campaign and committing himself to a steady pace of fundraising.

    http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iNxTApa2sQRu0Xx99P3jt2bEXw7gD92JVN2G2

  31. 631
    Chris B says:

    STAT OF THE DAY:

    Republican John McCain has 600,000 donors, while his party has reached 1 million. Democrat Barack Obama alone has surpassed 2 million contributors.

    http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iNxTApa2sQRu0Xx99P3jt2bEXw7gD92JVN2G2

  32. 632
    Chris B says:

    627 Enemy Combatant. That Michael Moore interview how the Democrats can Blow it in six easy steps is so true. I hope they listen to what he has to say.

    Here is the link again.

    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/22249602/how_the_democrats_can_blow_it_in_six_easy_steps/print

  33. 633
    Kirribilli Removals says:

    The Stat (sic) of Play!

    Each side adopts the previous nomenclature of the other in such areas as corporate business (by the Russians) State Corruption (as Abramoff, by the Yanks).

    It would make a good sociology or economics PhD subject, as you’d get lots of good meals, shoes, fur coats etc.

  34. 634
    Chris B says:

    We desperately need everyone to put a rating and comment on this video and pass it on. The more people that rate it and comment the higher it goes in You Tube and the more visitors it will get.

    Please, please, register a You Tube account, its really easy. Jen, Megan and KR this is really important. If you need help let me know. This can have a major impact on McCain.

  35. 635
  36. 636
    Chris B says:

    Good morning all, yes I did go to bed since 635.

    Religion, ethics experts comment on forum .

    Sen. Barack Obama, frequently leaning on Bible passages, and Sen. John McCain, sharply delineating his opposition to abortion, sought to burnish their Christian credentials with voters Saturday night in a civil forum at a California mega church.

    The presidential candidates took very different approaches to the same set of questions by Rick Warren, pastor of Saddleback Community Church in Lake Forest, Calif., and author of the mega-selling Bible study book, The Purpose-Driven Life.

    http://www.usatoday.com/news/religion/2008-08-17-forum-experts_N.htm

  37. 637
    Chris B says:

    This is what we want.

    No more hugs as Obama tears into McCain.

    A day after Barack Obama and John McCain exchanged an embrace during a faith forum at a California megachurch, Obama called the U.S. economy a disaster thanks to “John McCain’s president, George W. Bush,” and chided his Republican rival’s campaign team for trying to make him look unpatriotic and weak.

    But Sunday, after praising the Arizona senator as a “genuine American patriot,” the Democratic presidential hopeful got back to business — methodically tearing into McCain’s health care, tax and energy policies and criticizing his advisers.

    http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5isOFwdbq0tsqatW6vJpkDRTI1gMgD92K872G0

  38. 638
    Chris B says:

    The indications are that Obama is not going to lay down and take it like Kerry’s campaign did, once bitten twice shy.
    The Democrats do know how they lost the last election, and will not let it happen again.

    Obama’s strategy for anti-Obama efforts.

    Two months ago, Barack Obama decided enough was enough. He had just clinched the Democratic presidential nomination, and a reporter asked him about an Internet rumor of a video showing his wife, Michelle, using a derogatory term for white people. Senator Obama was furious. There is no such video, he insisted, and to this day, none has materialized.

    Then Obama told his aides: Time to get more aggressive about fighting rumors. The traditional technique of ignoring them, to avoid giving them added life in the media, just doesn’t work in the Internet age. Thus was born FightTheSmears.com, an Obama site dedicated to responding to rumors. Its goal is to give Obama supporters talking points as the charges fly.

    http://features.csmonitor.com/politics/2008/08/17/obama%E2%80%99s-strategy-for-anti-obama-efforts/

  39. 639
    Chris B says:

    The more Obama hammers the economy the bigger the gap in the polls.

    “John McCain and I fundamentally disagree on how we are gonna move this country forward. He ran a negative ad — which is most of the ads he runs — he ran a negative ad that claimed all my economic plan was was higher taxes and that it would lead to economic disaster,” Obama said, before going on to tell the audience that his tax policy would benefit the middle class more than McCain’s. “I’ve got news for John McCain: My plan’s not gonna bring about economic disaster. We already have economic disaster from John McCain’s president George W. Bush, and we can’t afford another four years or eight years of George W. Bush policies and that’s why we’re gonna beat John McCain in this election to put America on a new path.”

    http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/08/17/1271552.aspx

  40. 640
    Enemy Combatant says:

    Mornin’ All, are you ready for your Monday morning Beamonics?

    It’s like building an advanced sonar map of the ocean floor. With a highly detailed map the campaign navigates, and this map cannot be developed except without a huge force of organizing and volunteer effort. When David Plouffe talks about six million volunteers on Election Day, that number is Bob Beamon’s thunderstrike in Mexico City. Nobody has ever seen anything like it. The preternatural confidence would be like Beamon in mid-flight with full self-awareness of what he’s in the process of doing……..

    But our national political writers and discussers are a cautious bunch. Conventional wisdom rules. This is why you will hear MSNBC spend countless hours dissecting something like the Saddleback forum compared with this voter contact story unfolding right under their nose.

    “On October 18, 1968 at Summer Olympics in Mexico City, Beamon set a world record for the long jump with a jump of 8.90 m (29 ft. 2½ in.). It was one of the most astounding feats in the history of the Olympics (though Mike Powell (athlete) broke the record in 1991)”. (wiki)

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/voter-contacts.html

  41. 641
    Chris B says:

    Mixing Politics and Wal-Mart.

    It is hardly news that Wal-Mart will do whatever it takes to keep unions out of its stores, from closing down a unionized outlet to firing pro-union workers. The National Labor Relations Board has already ruled several times that Wal-Mart has violated the law by retaliating against workers for supporting a union.

    Facing the prospect that union-friendly Democrats could win both the White House and Congress, the retail giant is now turning its attention to this year’s election.

    Registration required for the New York Times political section.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/opinion/17sun2.html

  42. 642
    jen says:

    Mornin’ all-
    Ecky @623:
    got it.

  43. 643
    Chris B says:

    With a weeks break, Obama has freshened up. Ready for the hand to hand combat of the election. Obama, being fresh should finish on strongly over McCain. Obama may also make less mistakes than McCain, who is old, and will be tired in the last weeks of the campaign. Maybe we may see McCains temper come out in the last days of the campaign.

    Obama’s poll standing unhurt by Hawaii getaway.

    When he left for vacation in his birth state a week ago, ahead of the convention season, the Illinois senator had a three-point edge over McCain in the Gallup Daily tracking poll.

    By Thursday, as Obama packed his bags to fly back to the US mainland, his Gallup lead was still three points — 46 percent to 43.

    The moving average failed to budge despite a rhetorical onslaught by McCain on the crisis in Georgia, as the Republican’s campaign scented an opportunity to hammer Obama on his perceived weak spot of foreign policy.

    http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5i0nHaQvx2OQztzWOLdv_tmOzxSkw

  44. 644
    jen says:

    And here’s hoping that while McCain is trying to win the Fundie’s vote with his “pro-Life” position he just lost the entire women’s vote.
    Hate it when men declare what women should do when they have an unplanned pregnancy :twisted:

  45. 645
    Chris B says:

    644 jen I’m sure MoveOn will run an ad to undermine McCains support amongst the fundies. After all they have plenty to work with. See 634-5. That You Tube clip has had 6,000 visitor since last night. You can help.

  46. 646
    jen says:

    Hi CB
    just waiting o get to work to check out the Youtube clip – no sound on the home computer (only way to cope with 11 year old son’s computer games: lol:).

  47. 647
    Chris B says:

    Great jen, we need as many as possible to give it a 5 star rating and make a comment, that in turn attracts more people to visit the site.

  48. 648
    Chris B says:

    Two other ways to help it get higher in You Tube, is to link to it via a website and link to it via a You Tube site. Every link counts. Particularly You Tube links. :)

  49. 649
    Chris B says:

    How to make a You Tube link: When putting up a You Tube video copy a link into the more info section. The video does not have to be about politics or anything that attracts a lot of visitors. As long as it has a link that helps send visitors to this site. One You Tube link can send an extra 20,000 visitors a day to a video. 20,000 could swing a close election.

  50. 650
    Catrina says:

    Latest from the NYT on the status of things on the ground in Georgia. Overall, Europeans are racking up pressure on Russia to handle the withdrawal in a timely manner and indications are that we are seeing the closing stages of Russian presence beyond the agreed security zone.

    NYT: Kremlin Says Troops Will Begin Withdrawal From Georgia on Monday

    CBC/CA: Russia to start Georgia pullout on Monday

  51. 651