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The Senate: Democrat By How Much?

It has been clear for a long while now that the Democrats will increase their control of the US Senate, the question has always been by how much and can they reach the 60 votes required to win a vote on ‘cloture‘ and force though legislation. With several races in the bag and others that could go either way, I thought I would look at the races and state how likely it is that the Democrats will reach the magic number.

The Democrats currently control 51 seats in the 100 seat Senate. There are 35 senate elections occurring on November 4, 11 of which are considered competitive and 10 of those are currently held by the Republicans. The only Democratic seat in any danger is in Louisiana and is held by Mary Landrieu. The last poll conducted by a major polling organisation had her lead ballooning out to 53-37 on Aug 17, so she should now be safe.

The Republican seats that are almost certain to fall are Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia. Alaska is looking sure to fall as well, where Sen. Ted Stevens is not only likely to lose his seat, but is also at risk of crossing his Bridge only to discover that while Nowhere lacks basic amenities, it does have a jail cell. That gets the Democrats to 56.

The seats that are currently statistical ties are Minnesota and Oregon, with North Carolina’s last 3 polls being 48-42 Rep, 35-35 Tie and 51-45 Dem for a average of 42.67 each. In Mississippi Republican Roger Wicker has held a lead of about 48-43 for a couple of months while in Maine, Susan Collins looks sure to retain her seat.

Taking the optimistic view that the economic situation will help the Democrats, it therefore leaves the Senate line-ball on either 59 or 60. A more reserved outlook however would put the Democrats on 56.

There is also the question of Joe Lieberman. If the Senate becomes 56-44, there is a chance that he would be thrown out of the party. However if the result is 59-60 then the need to ensure his vote will see him remain. Lieberman will not leave himself, as that would lose him his positions on committees, including 3 chairmanships. The Democrat numbers also include Independent Socialist Bernie Sanders from Vermont, but there is not question that he will continue to causus with the Democrats.

By GhostWhoVotes

An Australian political observer.

857 replies on “The Senate: Democrat By How Much?”

Could be entirely out of line here but without applying excessive spin to the matter at hand, it seems to me that Team Bomb-Bomb have stumbled on a self-laid Improvised Electoral Explosive Device, the dreaded and dastardly I.E.E.D!
Here’s how it has worked in past campaigns when a candidate has jumped the shark.

Step1: Stumble on device (usually inadvertent)

Step 2: Device goes BOOM! (observers go “ooh-aah” at attendant irony)

Step 3: pink mist wafts over campaign trail

Step 4: Game Over.

Step 5: Tragics avert gaze only when result is officially announced by FOX News.

CBet:
OBAMA, Barack 1.25
MCCAIN, John 3.75

Intrade Market Odds: Le Kid 67.9; Le Bomb-Bomb 31.7.

You little bloody beauty!
————————-
SpamBo, the old “palling around with terrorists gambit” won’t get any traction where it’s needed, didn’t work for Senator Clinton in the primaries and won’t play for Team Bomb-Bomb now. McCain needs Independants like a junky needs junk. Attempting to put the frighteners on the electorate at this stage of the race will be viewed as “desperate” by the very voters McCain is trying to attract.
Axelrod and Plouffe have paced the campaign to perfection so far. Bouyed by the twin bonuses of the possibility of having an air-head poised a ventricular throb away from the top job, AND a seriously dodgy economy, they’ll do whatever’s necessary to cruise The Kid home.

However, I think it’s time for Team Obi to return serve on the “some of my best friends are terrorists” tactic using 527 ads demanding that the long time sufferer of the potentially lethal disease, basal cell carcinoma (metastasising skin cancer) release his medical records becuse war heros are not supposed to hide behind anything, especially behind a wall of silence about his deadly disease that could propel an inexperienced, trigger-happy air-head like Moose Mama into the highest office in the land quicker than a citizen could say Jimmy Dancer.

Radio commercial for National Release, Monday October 5, 2008.

(voices record ad in regional accents pertinent to demographic)

If Jed Bartlett could take the American people into his confidence and tell them the truth about his MS, why can’t Senator McCain, an honourable man, level with the American people about his health?

What are you hiding about your health, Senator McCain?!

Ecky, it’s Macca’s mental health that’s the biggest worry, followed by Minnie Moose’s random acquaintance with her native tongue’s grammar! They are just what the punters need in this time of stress and uncertainty, some comic relief with the McMoose Vaudeville Duo! LOL

Might take him a few years but I predict that President Obama will decouple the MIC and sell this component of the Second New Deal to Americans in The Second Great Depression as a necessary budget matter. Bread before hegemony. Naturally, Fat Cats will be puttin’ up resistance but Obi will bring the people with him. Dem belly empty an dey….hungry.
He’ll get the troops out of Europe and South Korea and the M.E. because The US Govt. will not be able to borrow any more megabucks to keep “The Horror” rolling. Lockheed, Halliburton, Bechtel, the Carlisle Group, Blackwater Mercenaries and privatised jailers like Wackenhutt are gonna be in for a rude shock. Obi will need to travel everywhere with a massive Secret Service Detail to prevent assassination attempts.

International creditors will hang signs in their offices when Seps come calling:

“Please don’t ask for credit as refusal may offend.”

GOPper shills will need extensive counselling to tide them over.
William Kristol and David Brooks; Ann Coulter and BillO et al. will age 20 years in Obi’s first term:)

Sun Oct. 5:
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/doonesbury;_ylt=AtNsjrgZGW4ZvrQ7w5roXMvmcLQF

Meanwhile, Al Gore will quietly be letting Big Oil know that the gravy train is over. Renewables-R-Us and if you don’t like it, too bad. Invest in the new tech now or get fucked! BushCo won’t be ruling the roost anymore. Without that ugly dynasty’s patronage, the manufacturing of rube consent will no longer be possible.

Yes, indeed, change is gonna come orright, born of the necessity of our survival as a species. If BushCo hadn’t hijacked the Presidency 8 years ago and looted the Fed. in the interim, many of these CHANGES would have been underway.

*rant ends*

EC 604. Might even get some serious discussion on social ownership and control of financial institutions especially the main players and freeing up opportunities for smaller community controlled ones?

Wakefield, that would be a wonderful outcome. Sort of like Bendigo Banks. Small, friendly, practical and community orientated, at least compared to the Big Four here in Oz. I’m sensing a lot of positives when the worst of the current mess washes away, although it will probably take a few years for widespread fiscal structural change to kick in.

Btw, Wakefield,are you going to join us in Brissy on Nov 5 to witness History?
——————————
I’d written Obi off in Florida a long while back because of GOPper Governor Frist(ultimately responsible for the ballot count and what happens in a dispute) and the Diebold “tally” machines that are deployed widely there and the fact that The Kid was consistently trailing in the polls. However, the bastards can’t stop or “fix” a voter turnout tsunami. Bearing in mind the current level of voter fraud awareness, those who would conspire to fix a U.S. Presidential election can only do so if the race is close, the “result” spun as Bradley Effect.

There is no way the financial meltdown can be “remedied” before Nov. 4. Florida has been top heavy with self-funded retirees who rely on 401k investment returns to survive since Ratso did the sales job of the century on Florida in “Midnight Cowboy” about 40 years ago. Think South East Qld then and now for a rough comparison of “progress”.

This is why Florida has swung so much since Black Monday, and why Barry will cream Florida and the other swing states, barring ANOTHER force majeure, to take the ECVs he needs to D.C. and implement the necessary changes through Dem. lawmakers who, the way things are shaping, might have a filibuster-proof Senate.
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/60718

http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/60750

———————–

Sun Oct 5: Golden silences, we have our share; we still talk heaps and laugh lots too. Seriously:) (for my darlin’, Min. xx).
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/nonsequitur;_ylt=Ak0veF68s22dQ4eNaFBLv.QDwLAF

Oh Ecky….you ol’ romantic you.
There just ‘aint enough of us left. More power to ya…and Min.

God, I wish these guys would keep up with the latest information, if they’d care to check us out they’d know that already. 😈
Politic 101 leads the way, others follow. 😈
Isn’t that right David? David?

GOP dread: Dems could hit 60 Senate seats.

The possibility that Democrats will build a muscular, 60-seat Senate majority is looking increasing plausible, with new polls showing a powerful surge for the party’s candidates in Minnesota, Kentucky and other states.

A poll out Friday shows Sen. Norm Coleman could now easily lose his Minnesota seat to comedian-turned-candidate Al Franken. A Colorado race that initially looked like a nail-biter has now broken decisively for the Democrats. A top official in the McCain camp told us Sen. Elizabeth Dole is virtually certain to lose in conservative North Carolina.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14280.html

Obama gets high marks on credit crisis.

With the dust still settling on a bailout, Barack Obama’s response to the Wall Street credit crisis appears to have helped the Democrat open up a lead over Republican John McCain in Pennsylvania.

Obama earned higher marks than McCain in a Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll of 597 likely voters in the key swing state taken from Tuesday through Friday.

Forty-three percent approved of Obama’s handling of the crisis, compared with 29 percent who approved of McCain’s response. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Obama’s overall lead in the poll has increased from 4 points to 12 points in the last nine days, hitting 51 percent to McCain’s 39 percent on Friday.

http://www.mcall.com/news/elections/local/all-a4_5poll.6616108oct04,0,3803430.story?track=rss

The Rude Pundit in fine form:

Conversely, McCain should never, never smile. It is a truly chilling sight, akin to seeing a gang of zombie dwarfs with knives coming at you when you are cornered in an alley. McCain attempting charm is like a child molester trying to offer makeup tips at toddler beauty pageants – it’s wrong, and it should never be allowed to happen.

…and his take on Minnie Moose is excoriating.

Hot new polls:
Obama leads by 8 in Ohio(50 – 42)
Obama leads by 17(yeah, you heard me right) in Minnesotta
(55-38)

VP debate swings undecided to Obama.

Undecided voters who watched Thursday’s vice presidential debate really like Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin but they’re not certain she’s ready to lead the country, according to the findings of a new Ipsos/McClatchy online poll.

If they had to vote immediately after watching the debate between Republican Palin and the Democratic vice presidential candidate, Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, 52 percent of the 456 undecided voters who were surveyed would vote the Obama/Biden ticket, the poll found.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/53475.html

Dispatch Poll: Obama opens lead on McCain.

Amid growing concerns about the economy, Ohio Democrats are coming home to Sen. Barack Obama, giving him a 7-point advantage in a new Dispatch Poll as the volatile presidential campaign swings into its final month.

The Illinois senator’s lead of 49 percent to 42 percent over Republican Sen. John McCain comes at an especially opportune time for Obama because thousands of Ohioans already are casting ballots in the state’s first presidential election allowing any registered voter to vote absentee. The new setup takes away some of the heft from the adage “the only poll that counts is the one on Election Day.”

http://www.dispatchpolitics.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/10/05/copy/POLL05.ART_ART_10-05-08_A1_CLBG3US.html?adsec=politics&sid=101

Economic Unrest Shifts Electoral Battlegrounds.

The turmoil on Wall Street and the weakening economy are changing the contours of the presidential campaign map, giving new force to Senator Barack Obama’s ambitious strategy to make incursions into Republican territory, while leading Senator John McCain to scale back his efforts to capture Democratic states
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/05/us/politics

/05map.html?adxnnl=1&ref=todayspaper&adxnnlx=1223208138-qUBYvyV4gxkWRzMhob0YGg

Everybody’s talkin at her.

So why are so many MSM pundits acting as if Mrs. Palin did well and “passed the test”?

The only plausible explanation is that they are engaging in self censorship in an attempt to counter the constant drumbeat from the Sewage Stream Media (SSW)–Faux News, Limbaugh, Drudge, et. al., that they have a “liberal bias.” Too many of them have been intimidated by the right wing.

The SSW’s shot across Gwen Ifill’s bow the day before the debate appeared to have led her to avoid asking Governor Palin for any specifics or examples.

Enough!

Here’s my message to the Main Stream Media:

Get some ovaries! Tell it like it is, so the American public won’t be misled into thinking that Palin demonstrated that she is qualified for national office.

These are the points you ought to be making about Sarah Palin’s performance on Thursday:

http://www.opednews.com/articles/SSM-Sewage-Stream-Media–by-Robert-McElvaine-081005-152.html

The Fence makes a quick exit after the debate.

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=GkNi-2JS7os

625 Gaffhook She is such a plus for Obama it’s amazing.

You know the last thread I did I said that nothing else matters other than the economy. Now two other things matter other than the economy.

Number 1. George Bush. Mr 22% popularity is being tied in with McCain at every turn.

Number 2. Sarah Palin Even I didn’t see how bad a choice she was for McCain. Even though I new she wasn’t a good choice.

629 Gaffhook The comedians are having a field day. They get to far wider an audience than the MSM, lots of people don’t read political news or switch off.

And a beautiful set of polling numbers from FiveThreeEight.

Barack Obama has risen to his highest-ever level in both our electoral college and popular vote projections, principally on the strength of his commanding lead in the national tracking polls. Gallup, Rasmussen and Hotline each have Obama ahead by 7 points, and Research 2000 has him up by 12 (Battleground, which has generally had the most conservative numbers for Obama, does not publish on the weekend). Whether or not the McCain campaign’s new round of attacks will have a significant impact on Obama’s numbers we shall see, but they’re going to have to knock him off a fairly high pedestal.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-105.html

Yup! Yup everyone sure is talkin at her!

Newsday reported this past week where donations to food pantries are slowing due to an increasing need by many who are falling behind and cannot afford food which is a basic necessity.
Helping Hand Rescue Mission in Hunting Station, NY has reported, “There are no canned green vegetables, cereal, peanut butter, jelly, tuna or fruit juice. Beans, pasta sauce, canned tomatoes and the basic cost-saving one-pot meals such as Rice-a-Roni and macaroni and cheese are scarce. Coffee, tea and hot chocolate are a rarity.” Does Palin think those who are going without food care who Barack Obama once had a fleeting acquaintance with when they cannot feed their families? Well shame on her for forgetting these people………… Now if we are going to take off the gloves, Gov. Palin as it relates to terrorism, I do suspect that innocent animals such as wolves and bears do see you as being their terrorist.

According to the Anchorage Daily News, they reported, “The 180 volunteer pilots and aerial gunners who are the backbone of the program can get $150 in cash for turning in legs of freshly killed wolves, Gov. Sarah Palin’s office announced Tuesday.” Words cannot adequately describe my contempt for Palin to promote this hunting of wolves and handing out an extra bounty by having hunters turn in their legs. Palin has actually sanctioned the killing of these beautiful animals.

http://www.opednews.com/articles/Shame-on-Palin-for-Swift-b-by-Mary-MacElveen-081005-362.html

Va. GOP fears McCain could lose the state.

Since wrapping up the Democratic nomination in June, Obama, his wife, Michelle, and his running mate Joe Biden have visited the commonwealth a combined 12 times. The candidate himself was in the Tidewater city of Newport News Saturday.

Obama is also plowing millions into Virginia, blanketing the airwaves with TV and radio ads, filling up mailboxes with leaflets and, along with the state party, operating 49 campaign offices.

McCain has visited once.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14285.html

Democrat Barack Obama now leads Republican John McCain by a 61%-32% among registered voters under 30, an advantage that is swamping McCain’s competitive position among older voters.

A USA TODAY/MTV/Gallup Poll of 18- to 29-year-olds details Obama’s continuing clout among the voters who fueled his initial victory in the Iowa caucuses at the beginning of the year and his presidential ambitions since then.

In contrast, McCain leads Obama among seniors 65 and older by four percentage points, according to the Gallup daily tracking poll. Among the middle-aged — those 30 to 64 — the Arizona senator remains within striking distance, lagging by two or three points.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-10-05-poll-youth_N.htm

Howdy, folks. Only 4 weeks to go. Time is running out for McCain, so no wonder he is now resorting to old Rovian tricks and planning to go “aggressively” after Obama’s character. Whatever. Desperate.

Meanwhile, Homer Simpson will be voting for Obama:

“In an episode of ‘The Simpsons’ slated to run November 2, Homer Simpson will vote for Barack Obama. As Homer tries to vote for Obama, a machine changes the vote to McCain and proceeds to kill him.”

http://www.wjno.com/cc-common/news/sections/newsarticle.html?feed=244038&article=4338967

No amount of “Swift Boating” will save McCain now.

Race will not be a major issue in this race.

Women Voters Prefer Hillary Clinton to Sarah Palin in 2012 By a 2-to-1 Margin.

Hillary Clinton would beat Sarah Palin head-to-head by a 2-to-1 margin if the 2012 presidential election were held today, according to women voters.
A national telephone survey of 600 registered women voters was conducted by Blum & Weprin from September 25 through October 3, 2008. The poll, commissioned by SheZoom.com, a new women’s internet media company, is titled ‘Palin vs. Clinton – You Decide.’ The survey (with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points) queried women in all 50 states on their personal and political preferences pertaining to the two female party leaders.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/women-voters-prefer-hillary-clinton/story.aspx?guid={202417EF-4CBF-4FF5-895B-BFC98CF6D3FA}&dist=hppr

Well, I fly out for New York tomorrow, staying for 9 nights. The trip originally included Washington, but now it’s just NY. I’ll try to drop in and give some impressions, but also selfishly to catch up on how things are going.

John McCain’s temper is tested as Barack Obama’s poll lead grows.

When confronted with a rash of new polls showing that the economic crisis has propelled Barack Obama farther ahead in the race for the White House, John McCain gave a shrug yesterday and offered this explanation: “Because life isn’t fair.”

Then he laughed.

The Republican nominee has not always been so apparently relaxed and even-tempered in recent days. On Wednesday night, when Mr Obama went over to greet him on the Senate floor before they voted on the bailout Bill, Mr McCain could barely look at his rival as they shook hands for less than a second.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4870677.ece

641KatieLou This bit is really important from that article:

“dial testers reacted poorly when McCain attacked Obama, or appeared to be contemptuous of him.”

From that every time they attack Obama we can expect an extra lift in the polls. Obama just has to sit tight and ride out the attacks. The way he responds and handles the negative ads is crucial. Obama does not need to become aggressive. This could backfire, as it will with McCain.

The remaining debates will provide Obama with more lifts in the polls. McCain simply has nowhere to go.

There’s been a narrowing in RCP’s lead to Obama in Colorado. It’s dropped from +5 to +3 over the weekend.

Thanks Gaffhook. It’s a business thingo but still, I’m mostly only working half days. So should be plenty of time to get around and do things.

Peggy Noonan is now flopping on The Fence.
She has gone from the dump (flopping) on her with the microphone on to (flip) praising her “debating skills” and now back to the flop!
Some days it doesn’t pay to get out of bed.

Appearing on NBC’s Meet the Press, conservative columnist Peggy Noonan said that the “populist” tactics being deployed by Sarah Palin was “not helpful to the country” and painted her candidacy as built on class warfare.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/05/noonan-says-palins-type-o_n_132003.html

Everybody’s talkin at me.
The Huff post is a good read today. Everyone is dumping on the Repugs. Rove, Ifil, Noonan, Frank Rich, and even his brother Joe gets a mention for supposedly stumping for McStupid but calling North Virginia communist country which apparently folk from north Va do not like.

On “Meet the Press” Sunday morning, vice presidential debate moderator Gwen Ifill said Palin “more than ignored” some of her questions — she “blew me off.” She added that Palin decided to “give a stump speech” instead of a debate, and that there’s “little a moderator can do” to stop that.
Watch:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/05/ifill-palin-blew-me-off_n_132028.html

Slight improvement for McCain on Intrade over the weekend:

Intrade Market Odds 65.5 34.5

He’s in a couple and The Kid is out a couple.

But my gaaaaawd – who’d notice

Gaffhook at 650, my sense of it was that Ifill was put on the defensive prior to the debate so went over the top trying not to seem biased. And Biden was too scared to criticise Palin lest he seemed arrogant or sexist.

I think it is absolutely the moderators role to direct the debater to answer the question. What a cop out.

what is suprisingly missing from much of the VP debate analysis has been the fact that Biden through a very strong performance cancelled out any repug benefit from Palin’s performance. After all, record numbers watched and maybe alot of them thought that Biden looks like a very credible VP candidate

The Intrade Contender Markets (the 2008.pres.Obama and 2008.pres.McCain markets) went back to playing silly buggers over the last few days. I grabbed these charts early this morning:

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2008/10/obamatrade2.png
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2008/10/mccaintrade2.png

There was clearly a number of orchestrated attempts to lift McCains price.

It’s why the party markets, or better still, the State markets are the ones to watch at Intrade

Ta for that Possum. I notice McCain is now at 35. Someone is spending big on the ol’ bugga today.

Money for old rope?

Oh and Poss….I notice that your favourite poster has written you his version of War & Peace” (produced on the Random Word Generator) over on CrikeyBludger.

You may need a translator

Afternoon everyone!

It has taken me something like four days to get to the point where I have finally got myself up-to-date with comments from everyone. Lots of good polls and the 339.7 versus 198.3 numbers over on 538 is almost enough to start of a warm and fuzzy feeling – but this is the start of October – and I don’t care what Chris says – I still have concerns.

Any other 538.com readers out there who love the work of “Real Joe” in the comments sections.

He is hilarious. The ultimate double agent and so clever.

ooooohhhhhhh yes Cat,

A month is an eternity in politics. There’s still room for ‘teh narrowing’!!

Which is the political equivalent of ‘The Nothing” in “The Neverending Story”….

The Dem primaries were all about the future direction of the Dem Party. It was important to defeat Clinton and the DLC.

The general election was always going to be about G.W. Bush and the Republican Party and the last 8 years. Whichever Democrat won was always going to win the General election.

McCain kept it fairly close because he was seen as “APART” from the Republican Party. He had CRED…..HAD

The nail in McCains coffin was the financial crisis and the bailout and the inevitable tying of McCain to the Republican Party and Bush.

The financial meltdown starkly affirmed to everyone that the Republican Party belongs in the sh*thouse.

McCains support for the bailout starkly affirmed that he is no maverick..but rather just another Bush Republican.

It is over.

Crikey, no wonder the Sepps are in the tank:

Household net worth, which greases spending, fell $6 trillion over the last year, with $1 trillion of that in just the last four weeks, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com.

…and consumer spending is taking a dive like no one has seen in twenty years. And it looks like getting worse.

In this climate, a financial cataclysm, is anyone going to want more of McSame?

Really?

664 Ferny Grover “The Nothing” is going to be thrown out at this election. It was taking over, but thought has been restored.

Satyajit Das is only half joking:

Central banks and governments have aggressively supplied liquidity to the money markets accepting an increasing range of collateral. Central banks may soon accept baseball cards and Lehman, Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual (WaMu), Fortis and Dexia memorabilia (mugs, stress balls, desk-decoration cubes that open up to reveal Lehman Brothers’ key operating principles – “demonstrating smart risk management”).

(in today’s businessspectator.com.au)

Catrina! Just when we thought it was safe to be concerned all over again 🙂

Oh, KatieLou, just in case you get to visit upstate:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=9pQii1L8fGk

The latest board odds from CBet quoted below appear to have not been tampered with by GOPper operatives.
OBAMA, Barack 1.23
MCCAIN, John 3.90

Mon Oct 6:
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/nonsequitur;_ylt=Ak0veF68s22dQ4eNaFBLv.QDwLAF

Mon Oct 6:
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/doonesbury;_ylt=AikS1_EMFpqWLj3d3ovkrvDmcLQF

Mon Oct 6: the context of this cartoon from Payne, who has pushed an unabashed neocon agenda all camaign, is remarkable.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/henrypayne;_ylt=ArdioQdiwVX18Szbe5CsErvXj5Z4

http://www.truthdig.com/cartoon/item/20081005_palin_perfect/
Sun Oct 5: Yosemite Sam sez:
“ Ah like this here ‘toonie so much ahm agonna see it again!!
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=Ahd2N0QlBLkoVjUXJbo5VOTXj5Z4

Alan Kohler today:

One outlet for all this anger and shame will be regulation: free-market capitalism in the US is likely to be a lot less free in future; Wall Street is going to find itself in chains for decades to come, doing penance with paperwork, chafing under another New Deal.

In general America could see a swing to the Left, while the Right, reeling under a storm of litigation and embarrassment will be unable to resist. That’s especially true if Barack Obama wins the presidential election next month, and it is difficult to see how that won’t happen now.

…warms your heart when the market men talk dirty, doesn’t it? LOL

But he’s right, the colossal failure of Reaganism and the rampage of Wall Street off the leash has all but killed Republican chances for a generation.

This will be a very long winter (nuclear??) for the right.

It’s all so interconnected. A few days back I discovered one of the reasons why the Fed was so quick to buy up AIG, and it’s a real shocker.

Apparently a number of European banks had bought Credit Default Swaps from AIG which they wrote up on their balance sheets! In other words, they were (and still are), wildly under-capitalised because of this bit of dodgey accounting, and the US Fed was terrified that a banking collapse in Europe would take them all down too. So they had no choice but to stump up 85 billion. (As of yesterday AIG has already drawn down 61 billion of that money!!!)

House of cards, really.

KR

So how long before Paulsen comes asking for the next bailout?

And how long before the Europeans start asking for taxpayer bailouts?

And here?

EC – you’re recommending Niagara Falls? Never been there myself.

Some indications that the Obama camp is going to use McCain’s Keating 5 association to counter the Ayers stuff.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/5/19317/4480/333/621072

And here’s video proof – barackobama.com on YouTube has a short video linking to keatingeconomics.com, which is a site established by the Obama campaign.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/5/222047/945/192/621189

And how long before those ‘Airabs’ and ‘Chahneez’ start asking for their loans to be repaid??? Huh?? Huh??

678
KatieLou

About time they started whacking Macca with the Keating Five debacle.

From The New Yorker….

“When have so many Americans had so clear a sense that a Presidency has—at the levels of competence, vision, and integrity—undermined the country and its ideals?

The incumbent Administration has distinguished itself for the ages. The Presidency of George W. Bush is the worst since Reconstruction, so there is no mystery about why the Republican Party—which has held dominion over the executive branch of the federal government for the past eight years and the legislative branch for most of that time—has little desire to defend its record, domestic or foreign. The only speaker at the Convention in St. Paul who uttered more than a sentence or two in support of the President was his wife, Laura. Meanwhile, the nominee, John McCain, played the part of a vaudeville illusionist, asking to be regarded as an apostle of change after years of embracing the essentials of the Bush agenda with ever-increasing ardor.”

The above New Yorker article concludes:

“And yet Obama has precisely the temperament to shut out the noise when necessary and concentrate on the essential. The election of Obama—a man of mixed ethnicity, at once comfortable in the world and utterly representative of twenty-first-century America—would, at a stroke, reverse our country’s image abroad and refresh its spirit at home. His ascendance to the Presidency would be a symbolic culmination of the civil- and voting-rights acts of the nineteen-sixties and the century-long struggles for equality that preceded them. It could not help but say something encouraging, even exhilarating, about the country, about its dedication to tolerance and inclusiveness, about its fidelity, after all, to the values it proclaims in its textbooks. At a moment of economic calamity, international perplexity, political failure, and battered morale, America needs both uplift and realism, both change and steadiness. It needs a leader temperamentally, intellectually, and emotionally attuned to the complexities of our troubled globe. That leader’s name is Barack Obama.

—The Editors”

You can hear the chirping of crickets, as those so-called pundits who predicted only Hillary could win, and Obama had no chance are proven completely wrong, yet again.

Don’t you love the connectedness of the intertubes?

I can remember seeing this brilliant nerdy site out of some US university months ago late at night and for the life of me do you think I could remember what it was called? The today, someone dropped a link to my site into some comment over there, up it popped on my traffic analytics and all was good in the universe again!

Some of you folks might enjoy it – it gives Nate a run for his money.

http://election.princeton.edu/

Yes, yes I know. Duh! Obvious name I hear you say! 🙂

Ha! Harry. That epithet properly belongs to Bush. He’s the one with BigOil connections.

Mind you, John Kass at the Chicago Tribune is doing Obama no favours in today’s paper – bringing up The Kid’s supposed underworld connections. Apparently the only way to get ahead in Chicago politics is to be corrupt. Obama got ahead – ergo – he’s corrupt.

THanks Mr Kass…..I believe Mr McCain has a brown paper bag for you.

To be fair to Kass, he’s spent years attacking the corruption of Mayor Daley and I suspect this obsession colours what he writes about Obama.

Just saw the end of Hannity on Fox. He had a special “Barack Obama – a history of radicalism”. Vomit.

McCain promised to fight a civil campaign!
Where’s the evidence of him staying above the fray?
Bringing out his “attack dog” Sarah Palin to throw mud – very classy stuff LOL
McCain has betrayed his principles and thrown in his lot with the nasty, extreme racist right wing!

KL, not really, was looking for the Groucho Marx version of the N. Falls scene on You Tube and then remembered you were Apple-siding so tossed it in as a curved ball non sequitur.
My buddy, Cliff, in upstate N.Y. reckons I should drop over some time 🙂
————————————————-
CA’s 55 ECVs were always going to Obi, but the clip below really “brings it on home” why Bomb-Bomb’s campaign is rooted.

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/10/foreclosure-alley.html

Little boxes on the hillside
Little boxes made of ticky tacky
Little boxes Little boxes
Little boxes all the same
There’s a green one and a pink one
And a blue one and a yellow one
And they’re all made out of ticky tacky
And they all look just the same

~Pete Seegar

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=ONEYGU_7EqU

Well I better cough it up less Cat goose steps all over my furry bits.

Some group of complete nerds used Sarah Palin’s speeches as data for a markov chain analysis. For those that want the nitty gritty of what that is:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markov_chain

But for those that would rather not lose that 10 minutes of their life 🙂 , basically its an algorithm that makes probabilistic forecasts of how Palin would answer questions based on teh relationships between words, phrases and topics that she’s previously used.

They’ve invented the Palinbot!

http://interviewpalin.com/

It’s disturbingly close to the mark :mrgreen:

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