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It has been clear for a long while now that the Democrats will increase their control of the US Senate, the question has always been by how much and can they reach the 60 votes required to win a vote on ‘cloture‘ and force though legislation. With several races in the bag and others that could go either way, I thought I would look at the races and state how likely it is that the Democrats will reach the magic number.

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It's the economy stupid!

We are about to witness the biggest landslide in US political history. Everything is against the Republicans. History tells us that no incumbent party overlooking such an economic disaster, survives. Everything is pointing to wipeout. Never mind the fact that the Democrats have 8 out of the top 10 major issues going for them. None of that counts when it comes to the economy. Bill Clinton won well when the economy was on the down turn. This is different, the economy is an unmitigated disaster, who are they going to blame?

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Lipstick on a Pig

Ferny Grover at 491 said:

… you seem to have the impression that Americans are interested in real issues when they are showing every indication of being a nation in complete denial.

You’ve hit the nail on the head. I think most Americans have trouble facing reality. The worse things get, the more they want to escape.

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The State of Play

I believe that Obama will retain all the Kerry states, including New Hampshire. I also believe he will win Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia. Read on to discover how Barack Obama will capture 310 electorial votes against 228 for John McCain.

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With John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin for VP, one can only shake their head at how amateurish a decision this was. Palin’s stance on abortion will result in few Democratic women voters being willing to even listen to her, let alone changing their vote. Her age and lack of experience do major self-afflicted damage to the attacks on Obama and she is even involved in a scandal where the Alaskan State Commissioner of Public Safety was fired by her because the commissioner refused to fire a state trooper who had divorced her sister. Ultimately, this decision is very short sighted and the VP Debate now has all the makings of a massacre.

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The Princess has a reputation to take care of (don’t we all), and Obama is not all too keen on having the show blown apart by Bill and Hillary. Lined up for padgent is a who’s-who of the political game. Kicking of proceedings is Michele Obama, Nancy Pelosi and maybe a guest appearance from the Lion King himself. Tuesday brings on Hillary paired with Mark Warner, Wednesday Bill takes the stage and we’ll be waiting with baited breath to see if he can finally pull his thumb out of his mouth. Thursday the media does its midnight scramble and we go for the all star platform with Al Gore, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden.

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Frank Rich (New York Times the Op-Ed Columnist) gets into the subject of polling numbers and questions of popularity and in the process provides some salient historical facts.

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This article, http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/08/obamas_big_7.html, caught my attention. While I realise that Obama and the Democrats have money to burn at this point, all the evidence to date indicates that this is going to be a much tighter election than many previously believed. On current polling, if McCain can hold Virginia then he needs Michigan and one other state (Indiana the likely one) in order to pull of a surprise victory.

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Referendum on Obama ?

Over the last couple of weeks I’ve been noticing a reoccurring phrase from the talking heads in the US media.

This election is a referendum on Obama.

Give me a break! If this was a referendum on Obama it would be suggesting that all of those dumb white lazy Americans were actually thinking about voting for Obama instead of cleaning guns and beating the women folk with their bibles.

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A few days ago the Idiot Decider ‘decided’ that the economy was, well, “uncertain”:

It is uncertain, there’s no question about it. Wall Street got drunk, it got drunk, (it’s one of the reasons I asked you to turn off your TV cameras.) It got drunk and now it’s got a hangover. The question is how long will it sober up, and not try to do all these fancy financial instruments.

Bush at Pete Olson’s fundraiser, July 18th 2008

But who was mostly responsible for letting this fandango of ‘fancy financial instruments’ go into a wild frenzy?

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